Russian Abstract: В данном исследовании проводится анализ предсказательной способности такого типа интернет данных, как интенсивность поисковых запросов, для прогнозирования инфляции, уровня безработицы, реальных темпов роста ВВП и курса рубля к доллару в период с января 2004 г. по июль 2019 г. В работе используются поисковые запросы, связанные с финансовыми рынками, инфляционными ожиданиями и макроэкономическими условиями. Результаты показывают, что включение в модель интенсивностей поисковых запросов позволяет повысить точность прогнозов инфляции, уровня безработицы и курса рубля к доллару по сравнению с наивным прогнозом.
English Abstract: This study examines the usefulness of Google Trends intensity search queries data as a measure of economic expectations in predicting inflation, unemployment, real gdp growth and exchange rate during the period between January 2004 and July 2019. We use search queries related to financial markets, inflation expectations and macroeconomic conditions. The results show that the addition of Google search queries improveы out-of-sample forecasts of inflation, unemployment and exchange rate over naïve forecast.
俄罗斯抽象:数据分析预测能力研究这种密集搜索互联网数据,预测失业率、通货膨胀的实际gdp增长率和卢布兑美元汇率在2004年1月至2019年7月金融市场相关工作使用的搜索、通胀预期和宏观经济条件。结果表明，将搜索强度纳入模型有助于提高通胀、失业率和卢布兑美元汇率的准确性，而不是天真的预测。抽象:This研究examines the usefulness of English谷歌趋势强度search queries data as a measure of economic expectations in predicting inflation, unemployment《real gdp增长and exchange速率during the时段between 2004 January and 2019年7月。我们正在寻找金融市场的相关性，inflation expeconomic conditions。谷歌搜索queries的需求展示了他们对inflation、unemployment和交换武器的依赖。
{"title":"Прогнозирование основных макроэкономических показателей с использованием поисковых интернет запросов (Population Forecasting and Analysis of Demographic Heterogeneity of Russia)","authors":"Diana Petrova, Pavel Trunin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3594521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3594521","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Russian Abstract:</b> В данном исследовании проводится анализ предсказательной способности такого типа интернет данных, как интенсивность поисковых запросов, для прогнозирования инфляции, уровня безработицы, реальных темпов роста ВВП и курса рубля к доллару в период с января 2004 г. по июль 2019 г. В работе используются поисковые запросы, связанные с финансовыми рынками, инфляционными ожиданиями и макроэкономическими условиями. Результаты показывают, что включение в модель интенсивностей поисковых запросов позволяет повысить точность прогнозов инфляции, уровня безработицы и курса рубля к доллару по сравнению с наивным прогнозом.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> This study examines the usefulness of Google Trends intensity search queries data as a measure of economic expectations in predicting inflation, unemployment, real gdp growth and exchange rate during the period between January 2004 and July 2019. We use search queries related to financial markets, inflation expectations and macroeconomic conditions. The results show that the addition of Google search queries improveы out-of-sample forecasts of inflation, unemployment and exchange rate over naïve forecast.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114124463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Russian Abstract: В данной работе разрабатывается и апробируется методика построения вероятностного многорегионального демографического прогноз России до 2050 г. Согласно прогнозу к 2050 медианная численность составит 134,9 млн человек при 90% доверительном интервале от 125,8 млн до 147,4 млн человек. Медианный возраст возрастает с 39,4 лет в 2019 г. до 44,3 лет (41,7 – 47,8) в 2050 г. Однако перспективный медианный возраст (оцененный к базовому 2018 г.) растет до 39,8 (33,7–43,8). Полученные нами оценки показывают, что оптимистические сценарии демографического развития, это сценарии наиболее оптимистических 5-10% из анализируемых нами, демографических траекторий.
English Abstract: In this work, we develop and test a methodology for constructing a probabilistic multi-regional demographic forecast of Russia until 2050. According to the forecast, by 2050 the median population will be 134.9 million people with a 90% confidence interval from 125.8 million to 147.4 million people. The median age increases from 39.4 years in 2019 to 44.3 years (41.7 - 47.8) in 2050, however, the promising median age (estimated by the base year 2018) grows to 39.8 (33, 7–43.8). Our estimates show that the optimistic scenarios of demographic development are the scenarios of the most optimistic 5-10% of the demographic trajectories that we analyze.
{"title":"Демографическое прогнозирование и анализ демографической неоднородности России (Population Forecasting and Analysis of Demographic Heterogeneity of Russia)","authors":"Sergey Shulgin, Sergei Scherbov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3594516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3594516","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Russian Abstract:</b> В данной работе разрабатывается и апробируется методика построения вероятностного многорегионального демографического прогноз России до 2050 г. Согласно прогнозу к 2050 медианная численность составит 134,9 млн человек при 90% доверительном интервале от 125,8 млн до 147,4 млн человек. Медианный возраст возрастает с 39,4 лет в 2019 г. до 44,3 лет (41,7 – 47,8) в 2050 г. Однако перспективный медианный возраст (оцененный к базовому 2018 г.) растет до 39,8 (33,7–43,8). Полученные нами оценки показывают, что оптимистические сценарии демографического развития, это сценарии наиболее оптимистических 5-10% из анализируемых нами, демографических траекторий.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> In this work, we develop and test a methodology for constructing a probabilistic multi-regional demographic forecast of Russia until 2050. According to the forecast, by 2050 the median population will be 134.9 million people with a 90% confidence interval from 125.8 million to 147.4 million people. The median age increases from 39.4 years in 2019 to 44.3 years (41.7 - 47.8) in 2050, however, the promising median age (estimated by the base year 2018) grows to 39.8 (33, 7–43.8). Our estimates show that the optimistic scenarios of demographic development are the scenarios of the most optimistic 5-10% of the demographic trajectories that we analyze.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114325262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This note is intended to introduce economists to a simple SIR model of the progression of COVID-19 in the United States over the next 12-18 months. An SIR model is a Markov model of the spread of an epidemic in a population in which the total population is divided into categories of being susceptible to the disease (S), actively infected with the disease (I), and recovered (or dead) and no longer contagious (R). How an epidemic plays out over time is determined by the transition rates between these three states. This model allows for quantitative statements regarding the tradeoff between the severity and timing of suppression of the disease through social distancing and the progression of the disease in the population. Example applications of the model are provided. Special attention is given to the question of if and when the fraction of active infections in the population exceeds 1% (at which point the health system is forecast to be severely challenged) and 10% (which may result in severe staffing shortages for key financial and economic infrastructure) as well as the cumulative burden of the disease over an 18 month horizon.
{"title":"What Will Be the Economic Impact of Covid-19 in the Us? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios","authors":"A. Atkeson","doi":"10.21034/sr.595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.595","url":null,"abstract":"This note is intended to introduce economists to a simple SIR model of the progression of COVID-19 in the United States over the next 12-18 months. An SIR model is a Markov model of the spread of an epidemic in a population in which the total population is divided into categories of being susceptible to the disease (S), actively infected with the disease (I), and recovered (or dead) and no longer contagious (R). How an epidemic plays out over time is determined by the transition rates between these three states. This model allows for quantitative statements regarding the tradeoff between the severity and timing of suppression of the disease through social distancing and the progression of the disease in the population. Example applications of the model are provided. Special attention is given to the question of if and when the fraction of active infections in the population exceeds 1% (at which point the health system is forecast to be severely challenged) and 10% (which may result in severe staffing shortages for key financial and economic infrastructure) as well as the cumulative burden of the disease over an 18 month horizon.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116460215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Francesco D’Acunto, Ulrike Malmendier, Michael Weber
Expectations about macro-finance variables, such as inflation, vary significantly across genders, even within the same household. We conjecture that traditional gender roles expose women and men to different economic signals in their daily lives, which in turn produce systematic variation in expectations. Using unique data on the contributions of men and women to household grocery chores, their resulting exposure to price signals, and their inflation expectations, we show that the gender expectations gap is tightly linked to participation in grocery shopping. We also document a gender gap in other economic expectations and discuss how it might affect economic choices.
{"title":"Gender Roles and the Gender Expectations Gap","authors":"Francesco D’Acunto, Ulrike Malmendier, Michael Weber","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3797091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3797091","url":null,"abstract":"Expectations about macro-finance variables, such as inflation, vary significantly across genders, even within the same household. We conjecture that traditional gender roles expose women and men to different economic signals in their daily lives, which in turn produce systematic variation in expectations. Using unique data on the contributions of men and women to household grocery chores, their resulting exposure to price signals, and their inflation expectations, we show that the gender expectations gap is tightly linked to participation in grocery shopping. We also document a gender gap in other economic expectations and discuss how it might affect economic choices.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123115218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Blake, Mel Duffield, Ian Tonks, Alistair Haig, D. Blower, L. MacPhee
Cluster analysis is used to identify homogeneous groups of members of USS in terms of risk attitudes. There are two distinct clusters of members in their 40s and 50s. One had previously ‘engaged’ with USS by making additional voluntary contributions. It typically had higher pay, longer tenure, less interest in ethical investing, lower risk capacity, a higher percentage of males, and a higher percentage of academics than members of the ‘disengaged’ cluster. Conditioning only on the attitude to risk responses, there are 18 clusters, with similar but not identical membership, depending on which clustering method is used. The differences in risk aversion across the 18 clusters could be explained largely by differences in the percentage of females and the percentage of couples. Risk aversion increases as the percentage of females in the cluster increases, while it reduces as the percentage of couples increases because of greater risk sharing within the household. Characteristics that other studies have found important determinants of risk attitudes, such as age, income and (pension) wealth, do not turn out to be as significant for USS members. Further, despite being on average more highly educated than the general population, USS members are marginally more risk averse than the general population, controlling for salary, although the difference is not significant.
{"title":"Grouping Individual Investment Preferences in Retirement Savings: A Cluster Analysis of a USS Members Risk Attitude Survey","authors":"D. Blake, Mel Duffield, Ian Tonks, Alistair Haig, D. Blower, L. MacPhee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3552251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3552251","url":null,"abstract":"Cluster analysis is used to identify homogeneous groups of members of USS in terms of risk attitudes. There are two distinct clusters of members in their 40s and 50s. One had previously ‘engaged’ with USS by making additional voluntary contributions. It typically had higher pay, longer tenure, less interest in ethical investing, lower risk capacity, a higher percentage of males, and a higher percentage of academics than members of the ‘disengaged’ cluster. Conditioning only on the attitude to risk responses, there are 18 clusters, with similar but not identical membership, depending on which clustering method is used. The differences in risk aversion across the 18 clusters could be explained largely by differences in the percentage of females and the percentage of couples. Risk aversion increases as the percentage of females in the cluster increases, while it reduces as the percentage of couples increases because of greater risk sharing within the household. Characteristics that other studies have found important determinants of risk attitudes, such as age, income and (pension) wealth, do not turn out to be as significant for USS members. Further, despite being on average more highly educated than the general population, USS members are marginally more risk averse than the general population, controlling for salary, although the difference is not significant.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130575682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Jackson, Shanette C. Porter, J. Easton, Alyssa Blanchard, Sebastián Kiguel
Using value-added models on data from Chicago Public Schools, we find that high schools impact students' self-reported socioemotional development (SED) by enhancing social well-being and promoting hard work. Conditional on their test score impacts, schools that improve SED in ninth grade reduce school-based arrests and increase high school completion and college going. For most longer-run outcomes, using both SED and test score value added more than doubles the variance of the explained school effect relative to using test score value added alone. Results suggest that high school impacts on SED can be captured using self-report surveys and SED can be fostered by schools to improve longer-run outcomes. (JEL I21, J24, K42)
{"title":"School Effects on Socio-Emotional Development, School-Based Arrests, and Educational Attainment","authors":"C. Jackson, Shanette C. Porter, J. Easton, Alyssa Blanchard, Sebastián Kiguel","doi":"10.3386/w26759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26759","url":null,"abstract":"Using value-added models on data from Chicago Public Schools, we find that high schools impact students' self-reported socioemotional development (SED) by enhancing social well-being and promoting hard work. Conditional on their test score impacts, schools that improve SED in ninth grade reduce school-based arrests and increase high school completion and college going. For most longer-run outcomes, using both SED and test score value added more than doubles the variance of the explained school effect relative to using test score value added alone. Results suggest that high school impacts on SED can be captured using self-report surveys and SED can be fostered by schools to improve longer-run outcomes. (JEL I21, J24, K42)","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130027527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Africans are categorized as one of the largest ethnic groups in the world noted for migration, while Nigeria is the most abundant migrating country within the African continent. The problem is that little is known about the business experiences of Nigerian, female, immigrant entrepreneurs within the service industry in New York. These entrepreneurs face problems in starting a business and adapting to the social and institutional environment of the host country. This integrative literature review is part of a more extensive quantitative multiple-case study on the barriers faced by Female Nigerian immigrant who owns their service businesses in New York City. Research results indicate even though they vary, there are significant barriers such as safety and security, gender inequality, certain levels of ethnic and non-ethnic competition, stereotyping, globalization, cultural adaptation (language, religion, way of dressing) are significant problems facing Nigerian, female, immigrant entrepreneurs in New York. This research overview will be a manual for upcoming Nigerian female immigrant entrepreneurs coming to establish their businesses in New York.
{"title":"Nigerian Female Immigrant Entrepreneurs within the Service Industry in New York City, USA: An Integrative Literature Review","authors":"Dr. Tiffany Oloke, D. Halkias","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3529631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3529631","url":null,"abstract":"Africans are categorized as one of the largest ethnic groups in the world noted for migration, while Nigeria is the most abundant migrating country within the African continent. The problem is that little is known about the business experiences of Nigerian, female, immigrant entrepreneurs within the service industry in New York. These entrepreneurs face problems in starting a business and adapting to the social and institutional environment of the host country. This integrative literature review is part of a more extensive quantitative multiple-case study on the barriers faced by Female Nigerian immigrant who owns their service businesses in New York City. Research results indicate even though they vary, there are significant barriers such as safety and security, gender inequality, certain levels of ethnic and non-ethnic competition, stereotyping, globalization, cultural adaptation (language, religion, way of dressing) are significant problems facing Nigerian, female, immigrant entrepreneurs in New York. This research overview will be a manual for upcoming Nigerian female immigrant entrepreneurs coming to establish their businesses in New York.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116881585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines how aging affects labor productivity using industry-level data of Japan and Korea. The analysis shows that, for both Japan and Korea, aging has positive effects on labor productivity when older workers are working in industries with a large share of information and communication technology (ICT) in the capital stock. We also find that, on average, older workers exert positive effects on labor productivity across all industries when they are low-educated in Japan and high-educated in Korea. In addition, a complementary effect between ICT capital and older workers is observed for both high- and low-educated workers in Japan but only for low-educated workers in Korea. We discuss the interplay among educational attainment, industry characteristics, and production techniques to explain the differences between the two countries in the productivity of their older workers.
{"title":"Aging Labor, ICT Capital, and Productivity in Japan and Korea","authors":"Jong‐Wha Lee, Eunbi Song, D. Kwak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3518875","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3518875","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines how aging affects labor productivity using industry-level data of Japan and Korea. The analysis shows that, for both Japan and Korea, aging has positive effects on labor productivity when older workers are working in industries with a large share of information and communication technology (ICT) in the capital stock. We also find that, on average, older workers exert positive effects on labor productivity across all industries when they are low-educated in Japan and high-educated in Korea. In addition, a complementary effect between ICT capital and older workers is observed for both high- and low-educated workers in Japan but only for low-educated workers in Korea. We discuss the interplay among educational attainment, industry characteristics, and production techniques to explain the differences between the two countries in the productivity of their older workers.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125089237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a theoretical model for the intra-household allocation of time and consumption that distinguishes between partners’ joint and private leisure. Estimating the model using time-use data leads to five findings. First, the intra-household expenditure distribution correlates with relative wages, consistent with the collective model. Second, men put relatively more weight on private expenditure and composite leisure. Third, joint and private leisure are imperfect substitutes. Fourth, joint and private leisure are independent of the wage distribution, suggesting that togetherness does not substitute for economic factors. Fifth, higher female wages imply higher childcare hours for women, but lower for men.
{"title":"Do You have Time to Take a Walk Together? Private and Joint Time within the Household","authors":"M. Browning, Olivier Donni, Mette Gørtz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3518409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3518409","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We develop a theoretical model for the intra-household allocation of time and consumption that distinguishes between partners’ joint and private leisure. Estimating the model using time-use data leads to five findings. First, the intra-household expenditure distribution correlates with relative wages, consistent with the collective model. Second, men put relatively more weight on private expenditure and composite leisure. Third, joint and private leisure are imperfect substitutes. Fourth, joint and private leisure are independent of the wage distribution, suggesting that togetherness does not substitute for economic factors. Fifth, higher female wages imply higher childcare hours for women, but lower for men.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132160642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine how women's employment leads to household technology adoption in the context of mid-century United States. We posit that this relationship is strongest for households with low earning capacity whose consumption-leisure tradeoff crosses a threshold as women go to work. Using WWII factories to instrument for female labor demand, we find that a standard deviation increase in female labor force participation increases washing machine ownership by 0.44 standard deviations, which is driven primarily by counties in the lowest pre-war education quintile. Changes to household income, as well as the substitution of paid domestic labor with appliances, are important channels.
{"title":"Women's Labor Force Participation and Household Technology Adoption","authors":"G. Bose, Tarun Jain, Sarah Walker","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3520613","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3520613","url":null,"abstract":"We examine how women's employment leads to household technology adoption in the context of mid-century United States. We posit that this relationship is strongest for households with low earning capacity whose consumption-leisure tradeoff crosses a threshold as women go to work. Using WWII factories to instrument for female labor demand, we find that a standard deviation increase in female labor force participation increases washing machine ownership by 0.44 standard deviations, which is driven primarily by counties in the lowest pre-war education quintile. Changes to household income, as well as the substitution of paid domestic labor with appliances, are important channels.","PeriodicalId":149805,"journal":{"name":"Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123822982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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