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Effects of local time on the variations of the total electron contents at an American and Asian longitudes and their comparison with IRI-2016, IRI-Plas2017 and NeQuick-2 models during solar cycle 24 太阳周期 24 期间当地时间对美洲和亚洲经度总电子含量变化的影响及其与 IRI-2016、IRI-Plas2017 和 NeQuick-2 模型的比较。
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106271
Yusuf Olanrewaju Kayode , Daniel Okoh , Eugene Oghenakpobor Onori , Oluwafunmilayo Oluwayemisi Ometan , Rafiu Bolaji Adegbola , Aghogho Ogwala , Emmanuel Olufemi Somoye , Rasaq Adewemimo Adeniji-Adele

Ionospheric modelling is one of the major tools to study the behavior of the ionosphere. Ionospheric models have been useful in predicting the true state of the ionosphere particularly in regions where Global Positioning System (GPS) are not readily available. This research paper aims to study the longitudinal variations and the effects of local time on the total electron content (TEC) recorded in two different sectors (Asia and America) during the ascending, maximum and descending phases of solar cycle 24 (2011–2017) and also to compare its values to IRI-2016, IRI-Plas2017 and NeQuick-2 models in order to evaluate their performances. An hourly interval profile computed on seasonal basis were used to study the behaviors of TEC diurnally and seasonally. A monthly interval error profile plotted on annual basis was also used to investigate the deviations of the models from the GPS values. Our results showed that the peak values of TEC in the Asian and American sectors were recorded around the dawn,06:00UT (13:00LT) and dusk, 18:00UT (15:00LT) respectively. We also affirmed from our results that seasonal/winter anomalies were recorded in all the phases of the solar cycle in both sectors. Equinoctial Asymmetry was also observed to be predominant during different phases of the solar cycle in both sectors except during ascending and descending phases in the Asian and American sectors respectively. Out of the 168 months of data collated for this study, only 162 months of data were available. The IRI-2016, IRI-Plas2017 and NeQuick-2 models have 11.7%, 23.5% and 64.8% better performance in all the months under consideration. Therefore, the NeQuick-2 model had the best performance in both the Asian and American sectors. Finally, from the results of our statistical analysis, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) has ∼3 TECU lower than the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values in both sectors and in all the solar cycle phase. Hence, MAE can evaluate the performance of ionospheric models better than RMSE.

电离层建模是研究电离层行为的主要工具之一。电离层模型有助于预测电离层的真实状态,特别是在没有全球定位系统(GPS)的地区。本研究论文旨在研究太阳周期24(2011-2017年)的上升、最大和下降阶段在两个不同地区(亚洲和美洲)记录的电子总含量(TEC)的纵向变化和当地时间的影响,并将其值与IRI-2016、IRI-Plas2017和NeQuick-2模型进行比较,以评估其性能。利用按季节计算的每小时间隔剖面图来研究 TEC 在昼夜和季节中的表现。此外,还使用按年绘制的月间隔误差曲线来研究模型与全球定位系统值的偏差。结果表明,亚洲和美洲扇区的 TEC 峰值分别出现在黎明 06:00(北京时间 13:00)和黄昏 18:00(北京时间 15:00)前后。我们的结果还证实,两个扇区在太阳周期的所有阶段都记录到了季节/冬季异常。除了亚洲区和美洲区分别在太阳周期的上升和下降阶段外,我们还观察到两个区在太阳周期的不同阶段都存在赤道不对称现象。在为本研究整理的 168 个月数据中,只有 162 个月的数据可用。IRI-2016 模型、IRI-Plas2017 模型和 NeQuick-2 模型在所有月份的表现分别比 IRI-2016 模型、IRI-Plas2017 模型和 NeQuick-2 模型好 11.7%、23.5% 和 64.8%。因此,NeQuick-2 模型在亚洲板块和美洲板块的表现都是最好的。最后,从我们的统计分析结果来看,平均绝对误差(MAE)比均方根误差(RMSE)值低 3 TECU,在两个部门和所有太阳周期阶段都是如此。因此,MAE 比 RMSE 更能评估电离层模型的性能。
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引用次数: 0
Determining the time constant of the global atmospheric electric circuit through modelling and observations 通过建模和观测确定全球大气电路的时间常数
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106267
Michael J. Rycroft , Anna Odzimek , R. Giles Harrison

The DC global electric circuit (GEC) distributes charge in the lower atmosphere by current flow between “generator regions” (thunderstorms and rain clouds) and “load regions” (distant conductive air), with a timescale defined by circuit properties. Previously, the load has only been modelled by assuming fair weather (FW) conditions, neglecting cloud. As stratiform clouds cover ∼30 % of the Earth's surface, load resistance has been added to represent them, considered to provide semi fair weather (semi-FW) conditions. This increases the GEC timescale by 9 % for stratocumulus, or 33 % for stratus at a lower level. Including mutual capacitance between the outer charged layer and an electrode representing stratocumulus clouds increases the timescale by 35 %, to 8.6 min. These modelled results - the first including the semi-FW aspects - are demonstrated to be consistent with experimentally determined timescales of the real GEC, of between 7 and 12 min, derived from volcanic lightning variations associated with the May 2011 Grímsvötn eruption in Iceland. Accounting for semi-FW circumstances improves the modelled representation of the natural global circuit. Further, the GEC timescale is comparable with cloud droplet charging timescales in the updrafts of extensive layer clouds, suggesting its possible relevance to the microphysical behaviour of stratiform (layer) clouds in the climate system.

直流全球电路(GEC)通过 "发电机区域"(雷暴和雨云)和 "负载区域"(远处的导电空气)之间的电流在低层大气中分布电荷,其时间尺度由电路特性确定。以前,只在假设天气晴朗(FW)的条件下模拟负载,忽略了云层。由于层状云覆盖了地球表面的 30%,因此增加了负载电阻来代表它们,以提供半晴朗天气(semi-FW)条件。这将使层积云的 GEC 时间尺度增加 9%,或使较低层的层云的 GEC 时间尺度增加 33%。如果将带电外层与代表层积云的电极之间的相互电容计算在内,则时间尺度将增加 35%,达到 8.6 分钟。这些模拟结果--第一个包括半风向的模拟结果--被证明与根据 2011 年 5 月冰岛 Grímsvötn 火山喷发相关的火山闪电变化得出的实际 GEC 时间尺度一致,即介于 7 至 12 分钟之间。考虑到半闪电的情况,改进了对全球自然回路的模拟表示。此外,GEC 时间尺度与大范围层云上升气流中的云滴充电时间尺度相当,表明它可能与气候系统中层状(层)云的微物理行为有关。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of aerosols on the lifecycle of a mesoscale cloud cluster over the Indian peninsula: A numerical study with a bin-based cloud microphysics scheme 气溶胶对印度半岛上空中尺度云团生命周期的影响:基于分区的云微观物理方案的数值研究
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106265
Soumya Samanta , Gayatri Kulkarni , P. Murugavel , P. Suneetha , Thara V. Prabha

The effects of aerosols (i.e., CCN) on the lifecycle of a well-documented mesoscale cloud cluster (CC) over the Indian peninsula are investigated in this study. The WRF model coupled with a sophisticated spectral bin microphysics scheme is employed to simulate the observed cloud system under various CCN scenarios. The CCN sensitivity experiments were carried out using three different background CCN concentrations (250, 1000, and 3000 cm−3). The prevailing environment featured a relatively dry mid-level. The introduction of more aerosols weakened the convection and moistened the upper troposphere in the initiation and mature phases. The major impacts of the enhanced aerosols include the dissipation of shallow clouds, a decrease in the number of convective cells and their overall coverage, enhanced convective organization in the early phase(s) of the lifecycle, enhancement of the cloud-free area, etc. The key microphysical changes due to enhanced aerosols are the increase in cloud liquid water, presence of numerous smaller cloud droplets, enhancement of condensation and evaporation, formation of smaller ice crystals, reduced snow mass and reduction in the aggregation process, high graupel mass and number and a reduction in graupel size, fewer raindrops with slight enhancement in raindrop size, etc. Cloud growth is significantly limited in the high aerosol scenarios due to large evaporation favored by a relatively dry environment and no invigoration effect is noted. A significant reduction in the rainfall (and associated rainfall-type) from isolated convective cores is noted due to high aerosols, especially in the initiation and mature phases. The eventual impact on the surface precipitation is a decrease in overall rainfall in the enhanced aerosol scenarios, with suppression of heavy rain. The study indicates that in a dry environment, the microphysical changes in various CCN scenarios cumulatively lead to macrophysical changes, which are found to be the primary controller of the overall surface rainfall associated with the CC.

本研究调查了气溶胶(即 CCN)对印度半岛上空有据可查的中尺度云团(CC)生命周期的影响。WRF 模型与复杂的光谱分区微物理方案相结合,模拟了各种 CCN 情景下的观测云系统。CCN 敏感性实验采用了三种不同的背景 CCN 浓度(250、1000 和 3000 cm-3)。当时的环境是相对干燥的中层大气。更多气溶胶的引入削弱了对流,并使对流层上层在开始阶段和成熟阶段变得湿润。气溶胶增加的主要影响包括浅层云的消散、对流单元数量及其总体覆盖范围的减少、生命周期早期对流组织的增强、无云区域的扩大等。气溶胶增强导致的主要微物理变化是:云液态水增加、出现大量更小的云滴、冷凝和蒸发增强、形成更小的冰晶、雪量减少和聚集过程减弱、粒砾质量和数量增加和粒砾尺寸减小、雨滴减少但雨滴尺寸略有增大等。在高气溶胶情景下,由于相对干燥的环境有利于大量蒸发,云的生长受到了很大限制,而且没有明显的增温效果。由于高气溶胶,特别是在开始和成熟阶段,孤立对流核心的降雨量(以及相关的降雨类型)明显减少。对地表降水的最终影响是,在气溶胶增强的情况下,总体降雨量减少,大雨受到抑制。研究表明,在干燥环境中,各种 CCN 情景下的微观物理变化会累积导致宏观物理变化,而宏观物理变化是与 CC 相关的总体地表降雨量的主要控制因素。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring ionospheric plasma density trends in the Indian equatorial crest region under varying solar activity conditions 探索不同太阳活动条件下印度赤道波峰地区的电离层等离子体密度趋势
IF 1.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106266

Long-term trends in the evolution of ionospheric plasma at Hyderabad (17.38N, 78.48E; 8.52N Magnetic Latitude), a near-equatorial anomaly (EIA) crest region of the Indian ionospheric sector, have been studied using 9 years of vertical Total Electron Content (TEC) data from 2004 to 2009 and 2011 to 2013 using global positioning satellites (GPS) measurements. The study examined the mean diurnal, monthly, seasonal, and yearly variations of TEC during geomagnetic quiet days in different seasons from 2004 to 2013. The findings reveal that the daytime TEC at the anomaly crest region exhibits semi-annual variations throughout the study period, while midnight TEC shows semi-annual variation only during the high solar activity years of 2011–2013. The winter anomaly was observed in 2004 and 2006. The study also assessed the performance of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2016 model in reproducing GPS TEC variability at the equatorial crest region. The diurnal and seasonal variation patterns in IRI-TEC show a good correlation with GPS TEC. However, the IRI 2016 model tends to overestimate TEC values during low solar activity conditions (2006–2009) but represents TEC variations reasonably well during high solar activity periods (2011–2013). Nevertheless, the IRI model fails to capture the wide plateau-like structure in the peak TEC, typically occurring between 1200–1600 IST at Hyderabad. Additionally, IRI-TEC consistently indicates very low TEC values during the early morning hours, whereas GPS-TEC measurements suggest a significant presence of plasma density. The study suggests a strong influence of the solar cycle on TEC variations at Hyderabad, evident from the positive correlation (R2= 0.71) with the F10.7 cm index. This characteristic is also well represented by the IRI 2016 model.

利用全球定位系统(GPS)测量的 2004 至 2009 年和 2011 至 2013 年 9 年垂直电子总含量(TEC)数据,研究了印度电离层扇区近赤道异常峰区海得拉巴(17.38∘N,78.48∘E;8.52∘N 磁纬度)电离层等离子体演变的长期趋势。研究考察了 2004 年至 2013 年不同季节地磁静默日期间 TEC 的平均日变化、月变化、季变化和年变化。研究结果表明,在整个研究期间,异常峰顶区域的日间 TEC 呈现半年变化,而午夜 TEC 仅在 2011-2013 年太阳活动频繁的年份呈现半年变化。冬季异常出现在 2004 年和 2006 年。研究还评估了 2016 年国际参考电离层(IRI)模型在再现赤道波峰地区 GPS TEC 变化方面的性能。IRI-TEC 的昼夜和季节变化规律与 GPS TEC 有很好的相关性。不过,IRI 2016 模式在太阳活动较少的时期(2006-2009 年)往往会高估 TEC 值,但在太阳活动较多的时期(2011-2013 年)却能较好地再现 TEC 的变化。不过,IRI 模式未能捕捉到海得拉巴的 TEC 峰值通常出现在 1200-1600 IST 之间的宽高原结构。此外,IRI-TEC 始终显示清晨时段的 TEC 值非常低,而 GPS-TEC 测量则表明等离子体密度非常大。研究表明,太阳周期对海得拉巴的 TEC 变化有很大影响,这一点从与 F10.7 厘米指数的正相关性(R2=0.71)可以看出。IRI 2016模型也很好地体现了这一特征。
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引用次数: 0
Machine learning techniques for estimation of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations observed at geostationary orbits during solar cycle 23 估算太阳周期 23 期间地球静止轨道观测到的 Pc5 地磁脉冲的机器学习技术
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106258
Justice Allotey Pappoe , Yoshikawa Akimasa , Ali Kandil , Ayman Mahrous

Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations can accelerate electrons in the radiation belts, which can pose adverse threats to both astronauts and satellites in space. The estimation of Pc5 waves in space is crucial to radiation belt dynamics studies and will help mitigate these challenges. Here, we explore the advantages of the Feed-forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Random Forest (RF) algorithm for effective estimation of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations observed in space at geostationary orbit during solar cycle 23. The dataset used in this study is the vector magnetic field measurements retrieved from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-10 (GOES-10) and the solar wind parameters: Bz and Vx component of the solar wind in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) coordinate system, proton density, flow pressure, and plasma beta obtained from the OMNI Web database during part of solar cycle 23. Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations were extracted from the toroidal component of the magnetic field time series using a bandpass Butterworth filter. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was utilized to study the characteristics of the extracted wave in the time-frequency domain for its validation. The validated Pc5 events were used as the target in the model's development, with the solar wind parameters as the inputs. In addition to the solar wind parameters, we included an attribute of the magnetic field time series as an input variable in the model. The dataset is carefully divided to ensure effective training and testing of the models. Finally, we trained both models using the same inputs and targets and explored their estimation abilities. The model was tested during the maximum, descending, and minimum phases of solar cycle 23. Both the FFNN and RF models have a similar estimation, with average cross-correlation score (R) values of 0.74 and 0.73 and corresponding average root mean squared error (RMSEs) of 0.16 nT and 0.67 nT, respectively. The model was deployed to investigate the response of Pc5 waves during three storm days in each testing year. The machine learning (ML) model outputs showed good coherence with the observed Pc5 waves. To validate the models, we studied the correlation between the estimated Pc5 events with the Kp index, and a good correlation was seen to exist between both events. This validates the good performance of the developed models. This work will aid in the study of radiation belt dynamics and the construction of electron depletion regions in the radiation belt.

Pc5 地磁脉动会加速辐射带中的电子,从而对太空中的宇航员和卫星造成不利威胁。空间 Pc5 波的估算对辐射带动力学研究至关重要,将有助于缓解这些挑战。在此,我们探讨了前馈神经网络(FFNN)和随机森林(RF)算法在有效估计太阳周期 23 期间在地球静止轨道观测到的空间 Pc5 地磁脉动方面的优势。本研究使用的数据集是从地球静止业务环境卫星-10(GOES-10)获取的矢量磁场测量数据和太阳风参数:在太阳周期 23 的部分时间里,从 OMNI 网络数据库中获得了太阳风在地心太阳黄道坐标系中的 Bz 和 Vx 分量、质子密度、流压和等离子体贝塔。使用带通巴特沃斯滤波器从磁场时间序列的环形分量中提取 Pc5 地磁脉动。利用连续小波变换(CWT)研究了提取的波在时频域的特征,以便对其进行验证。经过验证的 Pc5 事件作为模型开发的目标,太阳风参数作为输入。除太阳风参数外,我们还将磁场时间序列的一个属性作为模型的输入变量。数据集经过仔细划分,以确保模型的有效训练和测试。最后,我们使用相同的输入和目标对两个模型进行了训练,并探索了它们的估算能力。模型在太阳周期 23 的最大、下降和最小阶段进行了测试。FFNN和RF模型的估计结果相似,平均交叉相关分(R)值分别为0.74和0.73,相应的平均均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.16 nT和0.67 nT。该模型用于研究 Pc5 波浪在每个测试年的三个风暴日中的响应。机器学习(ML)模型的输出结果与观测到的 Pc5 波具有良好的一致性。为了验证模型,我们研究了估计的 Pc5 事件与 Kp 指数之间的相关性,发现这两个事件之间存在良好的相关性。这验证了所开发模型的良好性能。这项工作将有助于辐射带动力学研究和辐射带电子耗尽区的构建。
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引用次数: 0
Forming of magnetospheric disturbances by system behaviour of geomagnetic tail 通过地磁尾的系统行为形成磁层扰动
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106257
Moldavanov Andrei

– Development of magnetospheric substorm from standpoint of energy evolution in geomagnetic tail is considered. In this approach, geomagnetic tail is taken to be an open thermodynamic system (OTS) with infinite number of conserved energy links to external space environment. General self-consistent theory of energy evolution in OTS was presented earlier. In contrast to existing models of magnetospheric activity, presented model suggests believing that shaping of geomagnetic activity is controlled by the system nature of geomagnetic tail. From this angle, energy profile of disturbance is determined by particular qualities of energy development in OTS. Intercoupling between the system factors of the tail and flow of raw energy from space sources can produce different forms of magnetospheric activity including substorms. As an example, suggested system mechanism is considered for interpretation of the classic energy profile of isolated magnetospheric substorm, comparison with some experimental features of substorm is also provided.

- 从地磁尾部能量演变的角度考虑了磁层亚暴的发展。在这种方法中,地磁尾部被认为是一个开放的热力学系统(OTS),与外部空间环境有无限数量的守恒能量联系。早些时候提出了开放热力学系统能量演化的一般自洽理论。与现有的磁层活动模型不同,所提出的模型认为地磁活动的形成是由地磁尾的系统性质控制的。从这个角度看,扰动的能量曲线是由 OTS 中能量发展的特殊性质决定的。地磁尾的系统因素与来自空间源的原始能量流之间的相互耦合会产生不同形式的磁层活动,包括亚暴。举例来说,建议的系统机制可用于解释孤立磁层亚暴的典型能量曲线,还可与亚暴的一些实验特征进行比较。
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引用次数: 0
Development of a VLF receiver based on Red Pitaya for space weather studies 开发基于红木的甚低频接收器,用于空间气象研究
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106239
A. Arriola, L. Otiniano, J. Vega, J. Samanes

A new VLF (Very low Frequency) receiver has been developed by the Peruvian Space Agency (CONIDA) for space weather studies. The receiver has been designed based on a Red Pitaya board which performs an SDR (Software Defined Radio) to digitize, process and store the signal. The receiver is composed of a vertical antenna, a preamplifier to filter and amplify the incoming VLF signals from several transmitters located around the world. The receiver is able to cover a bandwidth from 1 up to 50 kHz and it has been developed in such a way as to be cost-effective, autonomous and solar-powered, making it suitable for installation in multiple locations with different geographic conditions. We show the performance of the receiver, the typical daily pattern of the lower ionosphere for the NAA VLF signal, as observed in Peru, and the first solar flares observed. The VLF amplitude curves recorded are validated by comparing them with data from SAVNET (The South American VLF Network) receiver installed in Peru. In a first effort to investigate the impact of solar flares on the lower ionosphere, we conducted a statistical analysis between VLF amplitude perturbations and 1–8 Å solar X-rays flux provided by GOES satellites, resulting in a linear relationship.

秘鲁航天局(CONIDA)开发了一种新的甚低频(VLF)接收器,用于空间气象研究。该接收器的设计以 Red Pitaya 电路板为基础,该电路板执行 SDR(软件定义无线电),对信号进行数字化、处理和存储。接收器由一个垂直天线和一个前置放大器组成,前置放大器用于过滤和放大来自世界各地多个发射机的甚低频信号。接收器的带宽从 1 千赫到 50 千赫不等,它的开发具有成本效益、自主性和太阳能供电等特点,适合安装在地理条件不同的多个地点。我们展示了接收器的性能、在秘鲁观测到的 NAA VLF 信号在低电离层的典型日模式以及观测到的首次太阳耀斑。我们将记录的甚低频振幅曲线与安装在秘鲁的 SAVNET(南美甚低频网络)接收器的数据进行了比较,从而对其进行了验证。为了首次研究太阳耀斑对低层电离层的影响,我们对甚低频振幅扰动和 GOES 卫星提供的 1-8 Å 太阳 X 射线通量进行了统计分析,结果显示两者之间存在线性关系。
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引用次数: 0
Joule Heating rate at high-latitudes by Swarm and ground-based observations compared to MHD simulations 通过 Swarm 和地面观测与 MHD 模拟比较的高纬度焦耳热率
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106254
Kirsti Kauristie , Octav Marghitu , Max van de Kamp , Theresa Hoppe , Ilja Honkonen , Adrian Blagau , Ionut Madalin Ivan , Mihail Codrescu , Aaron Ridley , Gábor Tóth , Yasunobu Ogawa , Lorenzo Trenchi

We compare Joule Heating rates as derived from ground-based magnetic field and all-sky camera data, from Low Earth Orbit satellite data (ESA Swarm) and from a MHD simulation (GUMICS-5) with each other in a case study of an auroral arc system. The observational estimates of Joule Heating rates provide information on regional scales and with high spatial resolution (10–100 km). Their comparison with global MHD results is conducted for a quiet time interval of a few minutes, just before a magnetic substorm. Analysis of the ground-based observations yields electric field with dominating North-South component pointing towards the arcs and having maxima values in the range 20–35 V/km. Combining these values with Pedersen conductance estimates from optical data (5–10 S) yields Joule Heating rates in the range 2.5–3.5 mW/m2. Swarm electric field measurements are consistent in their direction and intensity with the ground-based estimates. They also show that heating is increased particularly in the region where the conductance is low. The total amount of Joule heating in the area between the Swarm A and C satellite footprints while crossing the all-sky camera field of view is estimated to be 46 MW and the total amount energy dissipation during the 80 s overflight is around 3.6 GJ (1000 kWh). GUMICS-5 estimate of the peak Joule Heating in the magnetic local time sector of the arc system is smaller than that from the ground-based data with a factor of 2.9. Comparisons of GUMICS-5 results with Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), shows that the latter gives on average larger heating rates being thus more consistent with our regional observations. However, both MHD-codes yield smaller Joule Heating rates around the time of the arcs and during the following substorm than the CTIP-e code. CTIP-e has a more detailed description of ionosphere-thermosphere interactions than the MHD-codes and its convection electric field is enhanced with a randomly varying additional component mimicking small scale structures. GUMICS-SWMF comparisons of global Joule Heating patterns in the Northern polar area reveal that the two simulations have significant differences in their spatial distribution of heating rates. Main cause for these deviations is the difference in the derivation of ionospheric Pedersen conductance. Our results emphasize the fact that future estimates of the global energetics in the magnetosphere–ionosphere–thermosphere system require better knowledge on ionospheric conductivities, both by new measurement concepts and by better understanding on the background physics controlling conductivity variations.

在极光弧系统的案例研究中,我们比较了从地基磁场和全天空照相机数据、低地球轨道卫星数据(欧空局 Swarm)和 MHD 模拟(GUMICS-5)得出的焦耳加热率。焦耳加热率的观测估计值提供了区域尺度和高空间分辨率(10-100 公里)的信息。它们与全球 MHD 结果的比较是在磁亚暴前几分钟的安静时间间隔内进行的。对地基观测结果的分析表明,电场的主要南北分量指向电弧,最大值在 20-35 V/km 之间。将这些值与根据光学数据(5-10 S)估算的 Pedersen 传导率相结合,可得出焦耳热率在 2.5-3.5 mW/m2 之间。蜂群电场测量的方向和强度与地面估计值一致。它们还表明,特别是在电导率较低的区域,热量会增加。在穿越全天空照相机视场时,Swarm A 和 C 卫星足迹之间区域的焦耳热总量估计为 46 兆瓦,80 秒飞越期间的能量耗散总量约为 3.6 千兆焦耳(1000 千瓦时)。GUMICS-5估计的弧系磁局部时间段的焦耳热峰值比地面数据小2.9倍。GUMICS-5与空间天气模拟框架(SWMF)的比较结果表明,后者得出的平均加热率更大,因此更符合我们的区域观测结果。不过,与 CTIP-e 代码相比,这两种 MHD 代码在弧光发生前后和随后的亚暴期间产生的焦耳热率都较小。与 MHD 代码相比,CTIP-e 对电离层-热层相互作用的描述更加详细,而且其对流电场通过模拟小尺度结构的随机变化附加分量得到了增强。GUMICS-SWMF 对北极地区全球焦耳热模式的比较显示,两种模拟在加热率的空间分布上存在显著差异。造成这些偏差的主要原因是电离层佩德森电导的推导不同。我们的结果表明,未来对磁层-电离层-热大气层系统的全球能量估计需要更好地了解电离层的电导率,既要有新的测量概念,也要更好地了解控制电导率变化的背景物理学。
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引用次数: 0
An explainable machine learning technique to forecast lightning density over North-Eastern India 预测印度东北部闪电密度的可解释机器学习技术
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106255
Joyjit Mandal , Chandrani Chatterjee , Saurabh Das

Increasing lightning fatalities over India is a concerning subject. Especially, it is pretty crucial over North-Eastern part of the country where lightning is extremely frequent. Given the complex nature of the problem, machine learning can be an excellent option in such forecasting scenarios. However, such dynamic processes seek proper transparency of the model. The current work attempts to devise a model for short range prediction (one month ahead) of lightning density based on primary atmospheric parameters from satellite data with a lead time of one month over North –Eastern and Eastern part of the country. Random Forest regression seems to outperform other models explored, with a R2 of 0.86 and an MAE of 0.0071. The interpretation of the model output using SHAP index reveals that 2 m temperature at previous two months and CAPE and K-index at previous month has a positive impact on the output of the model whereas, instantaneous surface heat flux of previous month and two month prior K-index has an inhibiting effect on model's output. The use of machine learning techniques for atmospheric predictions without the shed of the black box can be of importance to the scientific community. Such studies especially over lightning prone tropical regions can be crucial in meteorological forecasting applications.

印度雷电造成的死亡人数不断增加是一个令人担忧的问题。特别是在雷电极为频繁的印度东北部地区,这一点尤为重要。鉴于问题的复杂性,机器学习在此类预测场景中是一个极佳的选择。然而,这种动态过程需要模型具有适当的透明度。目前的工作试图根据卫星数据中的主要大气参数,设计一个短程(提前一个月)闪电密度预测模型,预测时间为该国东北部和东部地区一个月。随机森林回归模型的 R2 为 0.86,MAE 为 0.0071,似乎优于其他模型。利用 SHAP 指数对模型输出的解释表明,前两个月的 2 米气温、前一个月的 CAPE 和 K 指数对模型输出有积极影响,而前一个月的瞬时地表热通量和前两个月的 K 指数对模型输出有抑制作用。使用机器学习技术进行大气预测,而不使用黑箱,对科学界具有重要意义。此类研究,尤其是对易发生雷电的热带地区的研究,在气象预报应用中至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Statistical analysis on orographic atmospheric gravity wave and sporadic E layer 陆地大气重力波和零星 E 层的统计分析
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106256
Yi Liu , Zhou Chen , Zhiqiang Fan , Chen Zhou , Xiang Wang , Yuqiang Zhang , Yufeng Zhou , Ting Lan , Haiyin Qing

In this study, we present the statistical features of gravity wave (GW) and sporadic E layer (ES) by using the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) data aboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) radio occulation measurements during 2007–2018. Statistical analysis of occurrences of GW and ES shows that daytime GW and ES are frequently observed on the eastern sides of the Tibetan plateau during summer, while less consistency between nighttime GW and ES occurrences was presented in our observations. The concurrence of GW and ES shows that nearly 60% ES occurred simultaneously with local strong GW occurrence. These results provide observational evidence suggesting that the effect of strong GW activities is significant in the generation of ES.

本研究利用热层电离层中间层能量和动力学卫星(TIMED)上的大气探测宽带发射辐射计(SABER)数据以及气象、电离层和气候星座观测系统(COSMIC)2007-2018年期间的无线电发生测量数据,介绍了重力波(GW)和零星E层(ES)的统计特征。对 GW 和 ES 出现情况的统计分析表明,夏季青藏高原东部地区白天经常观测到 GW 和 ES,而夜间观测到的 GW 和 ES 出现情况一致性较差。从 GW 和 ES 的同时性来看,近 60% 的 ES 与局地强 GW 同时出现。这些结果提供了观测证据,表明强 GW 活动对 ES 的产生具有重要影响。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
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