Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface最新文献

Regional-scale characterization of shallow landslide hazards is important for reducing their destructive impact on society. These hazards are commonly characterized by (a) their location and likelihood using susceptibility maps, (b) landslide size and frequency using geomorphic scaling laws, and (c) the magnitude of disturbance required to cause landslides using initiation thresholds. Typically, this is accomplished through the use of inventories documenting the locations and triggering conditions of previous landslides. In the absence of comprehensive landslide inventories, physics-based slope stability models can be used to estimate landslide initiation potential and provide plausible distributions of landslide characteristics for a range of environmental and forcing conditions. However, these models are sometimes limited in their ability to capture key mechanisms tied to discrete three-dimensional (3D) landslide mechanics while possessing the computational efficiency required for broad-scale application. In this study, the RegionGrow3D (RG3D) model is developed to broadly simulate the area, volume, and location of landslides on a regional scale (≥1,000 km²) using 3D, limit-equilibrium (LE)-based slope stability modeling. Furthermore, RG3D is incorporated into a susceptibility framework that quantifies landsliding uncertainty using a distribution of soil shear strengths and their associated probabilities, back-calculated from inventoried landslides using 3D LE-based landslide forensics. This framework is used to evaluate the influence of uncertainty tied to shear strength, rainfall scenarios, and antecedent soil moisture on potential landsliding and rainfall thresholds over a large region of the Oregon Coast Range, USA.

Great Bear Lake (GBL) is the largest lake entirely within Canada and the largest polar-type lake in the world. It holds cultural and sustenance value to the Délı˛ne Got'ine. However, its baseline physical limnology and how this may be altered by climate warming and anthropogenic stressors have received little attention. To explore the roles that surface heat exchange, wind, seasonal ice cover, and thermodynamic constraints play in the seasonal progression of ventilation and stratification of GBL, we report data from two 2008-09 moorings, satellite-derived lake surface temperatures, and observations made in 1964. Three spatially constrained processes regulate seasonal patterns of ventilation and stratification. Mid-lake temperatures remain below the temperature of maximum density (TMD_surf = 3.98°C) throughout the year. In this area, solar radiation drives vertical convection while cooling develops stratification. Waters along the perimeter of the lake and within its five major arms do rise above TMD_surf in summer and stratify. It follows that mixing between the inner and outer domains form water at TMD_surf to create a convergent sinking zone or thermal bar. Because TMD decreases with increasing pressure, ventilation in the deepest region of the lake (McTavish Arm, Z_max = 446 m) requires wind-aided downwelling to force cold surface water to a depth where it lies closer to the local TMD, triggering thermobaric instability, which then drives full-depth ventilation. These patterns of ventilation and stratification constrain the availability of light and nutrients, therefore setting rates of biogeochemical processes, and regulating the lake's overall response to climate change.

The bidispersity observed in the particle-size distribution of rock avalanches and volcanic debris avalanches (rock/debris avalanches) has been proposed as a factor contributing to their long runout. This has been supported by small-scale analog experimental studies, which observe that a small proportion of fine particles mixed with coarser particles enhances granular avalanche runout. However, the mechanisms enabling this phenomenon and their resemblance to rock/debris avalanches have not been directly evaluated. Here, binary mixture granular avalanche experiments are employed to constrain the processes and conditions under which bidispersity enhances the runout of granular avalanches in experiments. Structure-from-motion photogrammetry is used to measure center of mass displacement and assess energy dissipation. Subsequently, this study evaluates the dynamic scaling and flow regimes in the lab and field to assess whether the runout-enhancing mechanism is applicable to rock/debris avalanches. In small-scale experiments, the granular mass propagates under a collisional regime, enabling kinetic sieving and size segregation. Fine particles migrate to the base where they reduce frictional areas between coarse particles and the substrate and encourage rolling. The reduced energy dissipation increases the kinetic energy conversion and avalanche mobility. However, rock/debris avalanches are unlikely to acquire a purely collisional regime; instead, they propagate under a frictional regime. The size segregation which is essential for the process observed at the lab-scale is prohibited by the frictional regime, as evident by the sedimentology of rock/debris avalanche deposits. The proposal of bidispersity as a runout-enhancing mechanism overlooks that scale-dependent behaviors of natural events are often omitted in small-scale experiments.

Fire facilitates erosion through changes in vegetation and soil, with major postfire erosion commonly occurring even with moderate rainfall. As climate warms, the western United States (U.S.) is experiencing an intensifying fire regime and increasing frequency of extreme rain. We evaluated whether these hydroclimatic changes are evident in patterns of postfire erosion by modeling hillslope erosion following all wildfires larger than 100 km² in California from 1984 to 2021. Our results show that annual statewide postfire hillslope erosion has increased significantly over time. To supplement the hillslope erosion modeling, we compiled modeled and measured postfire debris-flow volumes. We find that, in northern California, more than 50% of fires triggering the top 20 values of sediment mass and sediment yield occurred in the most recent decade (between 2011 and 2021). In southern California, the postfire sediment budget was dominated by debris flows, which showed no temporal trend. Our analysis reveals that 57% of postfire sediment erosion statewide occurred upstream of reservoirs, indicating potential impacts to reservoir storage capacity and thus increased risk to water-resource security with ongoing climate change.

Constraining landslide occurrence rates can help to generate landslide hazard models that predict the spatial and temporal occurrence of landslides. However, most landslide inventories do not include any temporal data due to the difficulties of dating landslide deposits. Here we introduce a method for estimating the mean landslide occurrence rate of deep-seated rotational and translational slides derived solely from high-resolution (≤3 m) elevation data and globally available estimates of the diffusion coefficient for sediment flux. The method applies a linear diffusion model to the roughest landslide deposits until they reach a representative non-landslide roughness distribution. This estimates the time for a landslide deposit to be unrecognizable in high-resolution digital elevation data, which we term the mean lifetime of the landslide. Using the mean lifetime and number of landslides within an area of interest, we can estimate the mean occurrence rate of landslides over that domain. We validate this approach using a comprehensive temporal inventory of landslides in western Oregon created using age-roughness curves that are calibrated with high-resolution elevation data and radiocarbon data. We find good agreement between our diffusion method and the existing age-roughness-derived estimates, producing mean lifetimes of 4500 and 5200 years (4% difference), respectively. Hazard maps produced using the two methodologies generally agree, with the maximum differences in landslide probability reaching 0.1. Due to the relative abundance of high-resolution elevation data compared with age-dated landslides, our method could help constrain landslide occurrence rates in areas previously considered unfeasible.

The onset of glaciation in the late Cenozoic caused rapid bedrock erosion above the snowline; however, whether the influx of eroded sediment is recorded in continental weathering and basin accumulation rates is an ongoing debate. We propose that the transport of glacially eroded bedrock through the fluvial system damps the signal of rapid headwater erosion and results in steady basin-integrated sediment flux. Using a numerical model with integrated glacial and fluvial erosion, we find that headwater bedrock erosion rates increase rapidly at the onset of glaciation and continue to fluctuate with climatic oscillation. However, bedrock erosion rates decrease in the downstream fluvial system because larger grain sizes from glaciers result in an increase in sediment cover effect. When erosion and sediment flux rates are averaged, long-term sediment flux is similar to nonglacial flux values, while localized bedrock erosion rates in the glaciated landscape are elevated 2–4 times compared to nonglacial values. Our simulated values are consistent with field measurements of headwater bedrock erosion, and the pattern of sediment flux and fluvial erosion matches paraglacial theory and terrace aggradation records. Thus, we emphasize that the bedload produced from glacial erosion provides a missing link to reconcile late Cenozoic erosion records.

The Kalahari Basin in southern Africa, shaped by subsidence and epeirogeny, features the Okavango Rift Zone (ORZ) as a significant structural element characterized by diffused extensional deformation forming a prominent depocenter. This study elucidates the Pleistocene landscape evolution of the ORZ by examining the chronology of sediment formation and filling this incipient rift and its surroundings. Modeling of cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in surficial eolian sand from distinct structural blocks around the ORZ provides insights into sand's residence time on the surface. Sand formation occurred from ∼2.2 to 1.1 Ma, coinciding with regional tectonic events. Notably, provenance analyses of sand within ORZ's lowermost block where large alluvial fans are found indicate different source rocks and depositional environments than those of the eolian sands found at a higher elevation. This suggests that the major phase of rift subsidence and the following incision of alluvial systems into the rift occurred after eolian dune formation. Luminescence dating reveals that deposition in alluvial fan settings in the incised landscape began not later than ∼250 ka, and that a lacustrine environment existed since at least ∼140 ka. The established chronological framework constrains the geomorphological effects of the different tectono-climatic forces that shaped this nascent rifting area. It highlights two pronounced stages of landscape development, with the most recent major deformation event in the evolving rift probably occurring during the middle Pleistocene transition (1.2–0.75 Ma). This event is reflected as a striking change in the depositional environments due to the configurational changes accompanying rift progression.

Barchans are eolian dunes of crescent shape found on Earth, Mars and other celestial bodies. Among the different types of barchan-barchan interaction, there is one, known as chasing, in which the dunes remain close but without touching each other. In this paper, we investigate the origins of this barchan-barchan dune repulsion by carrying out grain-scale numerical computations in which a pair of granular heaps is deformed by the fluid flow into barchan dunes that interact with each other. In our simulations, data such as position, velocity and resultant force are computed for each individual particle at each time step, allowing us to measure details of both the fluid and grains that explain the repulsion. We show the trajectories of grains, time-average resultant forces, and mass balances for each dune, and that the downstream barchan shrinks faster than the upstream one, keeping, thus, a relatively high velocity although in the wake of the upstream barchan. In its turn, this fast shrinkage is caused by the flow disturbance, which induces higher erosion on the downstream barchan and its circumvention by grains leaving the upstream dune. Our results help explaining the mechanisms behind the distribution of barchans in dune fields found on Earth and Mars.

Valley width is largely controlled by lithology and upstream drainage area, but little work has focused on identifying the processes through which valleys widen. Bedrock valleys widen by first laterally eroding bedrock valley walls, followed by the collapse of overlying bedrock material that must then be transported away from the valley wall before the valley can continue widening. We hypothesize that talus piles that cannot be transported by the river protect the valley wall and slow valley widening, while talus piles that are rapidly transported allow for uninterrupted valley widening. We used field measurements from 40 locations in both wide and narrow valleys along the Buffalo River, AR to test this hypothesis. Our data show that wide valleys tend to have fewer talus piles and smaller talus grain sizes, whereas talus in narrow valleys is larger in size and more continuous along valley walls. We calculated potential talus block entrainment at each site location and found that talus blocks in wide valleys are potentially entrained and moved away from valley walls during moderate and large flood events, whereas talus blocks in narrow valleys are very rarely moved. Our results show that the potential transport of talus piles protecting bedrock valley walls from widening is controlled by the block size of collapsed bedrock wall material relative to stream competency. Our results also suggest that persistence versus mobility of collapsed talus piles is an important process in the development of wide bedrock valleys.

Proglacial forefields commonly include highly dynamic fluvial systems associated with the fundamental instability between topography, flow hydraulics and sediment transport. However, there is limited knowledge of how these systems respond to changing subglacial hydrology and sediment supply. We investigated this relationship using the first continuous field-collected data sets for both suspended and bedload sediment export and proglacial river dynamics for an Alpine glacier forefield, the Glacier d’Otemma, Switzerland. The results show a strong sensitivity of fluvial morphodynamics to the balance between sediment transport capacity and supply. When subglacial bedload export rates exceeded fluvial transport capacity, we found bar construction leading to net forefield aggradation and surficial coarsening, especially on bar heads. This intensified braiding buffered the downstream transport of coarse sediment. When subglacial bedload export rates were lower than transport capacity, incision occurred, with reduced braiding intensity, net erosion and important amounts of bedload leaving the proglacial system. We found a net fining of surficial deposits except for very isolated coarsening patterns on bar heads. Thus, proglacial forefield morphodynamics are strongly conditioned by subglacial hydrology and sediment supply, but this conditioning is also influenced by the response of the forefield itself. Proglacial forefields have an important influence on the longitudinal connectivity of sediment flux in regions sensitive to climate change, such as recently deglaciated high mountain areas. The linkages we report between subglacial processes and river morphodynamics are critical for understanding the development of embryonic forefield ecosystems.