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Seasonality of Retreat Rate of a Wave-Exposed Marsh Edge 受波浪影响的沼泽边缘的季节性退缩率
IF 3.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1029/2023JF007468
Lukas WinklerPrins, Jessica R. Lacy, Mark T. Stacey, Joshua B. Logan, Andrew W. Stevens

Wave-driven erosion of marsh boundaries is a major cause of marsh loss, but little research has captured the effect of seasonal differences on marsh-edge retreat rates to illuminate temporal patterns of when the majority of this erosion is occurring. Using five surface models captured over a study year of a marsh with a steep escarped boundary in South San Francisco Bay, we find a pronounced seasonal signal, where rapid marsh retreat in the spring and summer is driven by a strong sea breeze but little change is found in the marsh-edge position in the fall and winter. We found accretion in the mudflat transition region close to the marsh boundary in the calmer seasons however, suggesting intertwined morphodynamics of mudflats and the eroding marsh-scarp. We observed large spatial heterogeneity in retreat rates within seasons, but less on longer (annual and decadal) timescales. The relationship between marsh-edge retreat rates and properties of the wave field nearby is explored and contextualized against extant relationships, but our results speak to the difficulty in addressing spatial erosion/accretion variability on short (seasonal) timescales with simple models.

海浪对沼泽边界的侵蚀是沼泽消失的一个主要原因,但很少有研究能捕捉到季节性差异对沼泽边缘退缩率的影响,从而揭示大部分侵蚀发生的时间模式。通过对南旧金山湾陡峭的沼泽边界进行一年的研究,我们发现了一个明显的季节性信号,即春夏季沼泽在强海风的推动下快速后退,但秋冬季沼泽边缘位置变化不大。然而,我们发现,在较平静的季节,靠近沼泽边界的泥滩过渡区域会出现增生,这表明泥滩和侵蚀沼泽峭壁的形态动力学相互交织。我们观察到季节内退缩率的空间异质性很大,但在较长(年和十年)时间尺度上的异质性较小。我们探讨了沼泽边缘退缩率与附近波场特性之间的关系,并将其与现存的关系联系起来,但我们的结果表明,在短(季节)时间尺度上,用简单的模型来处理空间侵蚀/侵蚀变化是很困难的。
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引用次数: 0
Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes 从永久冻土钻孔中重建历史气候变化的稳健性
IF 3.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1029/2024JF007734
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Frederieke Miesner, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, Julia Boike

Reconstructing historical climate change from deep ground temperature measurements in cold regions is often complicated by the presence of permafrost. Existing methods are typically unable to account for latent heat effects due to the freezing and thawing of the active layer. In this work, we propose a novel method for reconstructing historical ground surface temperature (GST) from borehole temperature measurements that accounts for seasonal thawing and refreezing of the active layer. Our method couples a recently developed fast numerical modeling scheme for two-phase heat transport in permafrost soils with an ensemble-based method for approximate Bayesian inference. We evaluate our method on two synthetic test cases covering both cold and warm permafrost conditions as well as using real data from a 100 m deep borehole on Sardakh Island in northeastern Siberia. Our analysis of the Sardakh Island borehole data confirms previous findings that GST in the region have likely risen by 5–9°C between the pre-industrial period of 1750–1855 and 2012. We also show that latent heat effects due to seasonal freeze-thaw have a substantial impact on the resulting reconstructed surface temperatures. We find that neglecting the thermal dynamics of the active layer can result in biases of roughly −1°C in cold conditions (i.e., mean annual ground temperature below −5°C) and as much as −2.6°C in warmer conditions where substantial active layer thickening (>200 cm) has occurred. Our results highlight the importance of considering seasonal freeze-thaw in GST reconstructions from permafrost boreholes.

根据寒冷地区的深层地温测量结果重建历史气候变化往往因永久冻土的存在而变得复杂。现有方法通常无法考虑活动层冻结和解冻所产生的潜热效应。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种根据钻孔温度测量重建历史地表温度(GST)的新方法,该方法考虑了活动层的季节性解冻和再冻结。我们的方法将最近开发的永久冻土两相热传导快速数值建模方案与基于集合的近似贝叶斯推断方法相结合。我们在两个涵盖冷冻和暖冻土条件的合成测试案例中,以及使用来自西伯利亚东北部萨尔达赫岛 100 米深钻孔的真实数据,对我们的方法进行了评估。我们对萨达赫岛钻孔数据的分析证实了之前的研究结果,即从 1750-1855 年工业化前时期到 2012 年,该地区的 GST 可能上升了 5-9°C 。我们还表明,季节性冻融导致的潜热效应对重建的地表温度有很大影响。我们发现,在寒冷条件下(即年平均地面温度低于-5°C),忽略活动层的热动力学会导致大约-1°C的偏差,而在活动层大幅增厚(200厘米)的温暖条件下,偏差则高达-2.6°C。我们的研究结果突出表明,在从永久冻土钻孔中重建全球平均温度时,考虑季节性冻融非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Basal Force Fluctuations and Granular Rheology: Linking Macroscopic Descriptions of Granular Flows to Bed Forces With Implications for Monitoring Signals 基底力波动与颗粒流变学:将颗粒流动的宏观描述与床面作用力联系起来,并对监测信号产生影响
IF 3.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1029/2024JF007760
P. Zrelak, E. C. P. Breard, J. Dufek

Granular flows are ubiquitous in nature with single flows traversing a wide range of dynamic conditions from initiation to deposition. Many of these flows are responsible for significant hazards and can generate remotely detectable seismic signals. These signals provide a potential for real-time flow measurements from a safe distance. To fully realize the benefit of seismic measurements, basal-granular forces must be linked to macroscopic internal flow dynamics across a wide range of flow conditions. We utilize discrete element simulations to observe dry and submerged granular flows under plane-shear and inclined-flow configurations, relating bulk kinematics to basal-force distributions. We find that the power and frequency of force fluctuations scale with non-dimensional shear rate (I). This scaling tracks three pre-established regimes that are described by μ(I) rheology: (a) an intermittent particle rearrangement regime, where basal forces are dominated by low frequencies; (b) an intermediate regime where basal forces start to increase in frequency while showing correlations in space and (c) a fully collisional regime where the signal is nearly flat up to a cutoff frequency. We further identify a newly defined fourth regime that marks a “phase change” from the intermediate to collisional regime where increases in basal force fluctuations with increasing shear rates stalls as the granular bed dilates, partially destroying the contact network. This effort suggests that basal forces can be used to interpret complex granular processes in geophysical flows.

粒状流在自然界中无处不在,单次流动从开始到沉积的动态条件范围很广。其中许多流动会造成严重危害,并可产生可远程探测的地震信号。这些信号为从安全距离进行实时流动测量提供了可能。要充分发挥地震测量的优势,必须在各种流动条件下将基底颗粒力与宏观内部流动动力学联系起来。我们利用离散元模拟来观察平面剪切和倾斜流配置下的干燥和浸没颗粒流动,将体积运动学与基底力分布联系起来。我们发现,力波动的功率和频率与非维剪切率(I)成比例关系。这种比例关系跟踪了 μ(I) 流变学所描述的三种预设机制:(a) 颗粒间歇性重排机制,其中基底力以低频为主;(b) 中间机制,其中基底力的频率开始增加,同时显示出空间相关性;(c) 完全碰撞机制,其中信号在截止频率之前几乎是平的。我们进一步确定了新定义的第四种机制,它标志着从中间机制到碰撞机制的 "相变",在这一机制中,随着剪切速率的增加,基底力波动的增加随着颗粒床的扩张而停滞,从而部分破坏了接触网络。这项研究表明,基底力可以用来解释地球物理流动中复杂的颗粒过程。
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引用次数: 0
Climate Change Can Intensify the Effects of Local Interventions: A Morphological Modeling Study of a Highly Engineered Estuary 气候变化会加剧地方干预措施的效果:一个高度工程化河口的形态建模研究
IF 3.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1029/2023JF007595
Rutger W. A. Siemes, Trang Minh Duong, Bas W. Borsje, Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher

Estuaries worldwide are susceptible and adapting to climate change (CC) impacts from both the river and coastal boundaries. Furthermore, engineering efforts are undertaken to improve flood safety, to claim land for human use or for port operations, which change estuary morphology. This paper aims to gain an understanding of the combined effects of CC and human interventions on the estuarine-wide morphological response by analyzing the sediment infilling of highly engineered estuaries. A schematized process-based morphodynamic model is used (Delft3D-FM, in 2DH), resembling a highly engineered estuary in the Rhine-Meuse Delta, The Netherlands. Three types of changes were implemented, both in isolation and in combination: (a) local interventions (changing channel depth or wetland area), (b) upstream human interventions (changing fluvial sediment supply) and (c) extreme CC scenarios (with projections for the future forcings and bathymetry). Results show that a CC scenario can elicit both positive and negative changes in the estuary's sediment budget. The direction and magnitude of the change depend on the local intervention and can align with the effect of the local intervention, intensifying its impact. The combined effects can even reverse the sign of the sediment budget. This stresses the need of analyzing CC impacts in combination with human interventions. Additionally, a relationship was identified which quantifies how a change in peak flow velocity due to both local interventions and sea-level rise affects the annual sediment budget. These findings can help determine how local interventions affect morphodynamics of engineered estuaries in present and future climates.

全世界的河口都很容易受到气候变化(CC)的影响,并正在适应来自河流和沿海地区的影响。此外,为提高防洪安全、为人类使用土地或港口运营而进行的工程努力也改变了河口的形态。本文旨在通过分析高度工程化河口的沉积物填充情况,了解 CC 和人为干预对整个河口形态响应的综合影响。本文使用了一个基于过程的示意形态动力学模型(Delft3D-FM,2DH 中),该模型类似于荷兰莱茵河-缪斯河三角洲的一个高度工程化河口。该模型单独或结合实施了三类变化:(a) 局部干预(改变河道深度或湿地面积),(b) 上游人为干预(改变河道沉积物供应),(c) 极端 CC 情景(预测未来的作用力和水深)。结果表明,CC 情景可引起河口沉积物预算的正负变化。变化的方向和幅度取决于当地的干预措施,并可能与当地干预措施的效果一致,从而加剧其影响。综合效应甚至会扭转沉积物预算的符号。这强调了结合人类干预措施分析气候变化影响的必要性。此外,还确定了一种关系,可量化当地干预措施和海平面上升导致的峰值流速变化如何影响年度沉积物预算。这些发现有助于确定地方干预措施在当前和未来气候条件下如何影响工程河口的形态动力学。
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引用次数: 0
Subglacial Discharge Accelerates Dynamic Retreat of Aurora Subglacial Basin Outlet Glaciers, East Antarctica, Over the 21st Century 冰川下泄加速了南极洲东部极光冰川盆地出口冰川在 21 世纪的动态消退
IF 3.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1029/2023JF007513
T. Pelle, J. S. Greenbaum, S. Ehrenfeucht, C. F. Dow, F. S. McCormack

Recent studies have revealed the presence of a complex freshwater system underlying the Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB), a region of East Antarctica that contains ∼7 m of global sea level potential in ice mainly grounded below sea level. However, the impact that subglacial freshwater has on driving the evolution of the dynamic outlet glaciers that drain this basin has yet to be tested in a coupled ice sheet-subglacial hydrology numerical modeling framework. Here, we project the evolution of the primary outlet glaciers draining the ASB (Moscow University Ice Shelf, Totten, Vanderford, and Adams Glaciers) in response to an evolving subglacial hydrology system and to ocean forcing through 2100, following low and high CMIP6 emission scenarios. By 2100, ice-hydrology feedbacks enhance the ASB's 2100 sea level contribution by ∼30% (7.50–9.80 mm) in high emission scenarios and accelerate the retreat of Totten Glacier's main ice stream by 25 years. Ice-hydrology feedbacks are particularly influential in the retreat of the Vanderford and Adams Glaciers, driving an additional 10 km of retreat in fully coupled simulations relative to uncoupled simulations. Hydrology-driven ice shelf melt enhancements are the primary cause of domain-wide mass loss in low emission scenarios, but are secondary to ice sheet frictional feedbacks under high emission scenarios. The results presented here demonstrate that ice-subglacial hydrology interactions can significantly accelerate retreat of dynamic Antarctic glaciers and that future Antarctic sea level assessments that do not take these interactions into account might be severely underestimating Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss.

最近的研究揭示了极光冰川下盆地(Aurora Subglacial Basin,ASB)下存在着一个复杂的淡水系统,该盆地是南极洲东部的一个区域,主要位于海平面以下的冰层中蕴藏着全球海平面潜能 7 米。然而,冰川下淡水对驱动该盆地动态出口冰川演化的影响,还有待在冰盖-冰川下水文耦合数值建模框架中进行检验。在这里,我们根据 CMIP6 的低和高排放情景,预测到 2100 年,ASB 的主要排水冰川(莫斯科大学冰架、托顿冰川、范德福冰川和亚当斯冰川)在冰川下水文系统和海洋强迫作用下的演变情况。到 2100 年,在高排放情景下,冰-水文反馈会使 ASB 2100 年的海平面上升 30%(7.50-9.80 毫米),并使托特冰川的主冰流加速后退 25 年。冰-水文反馈对范德福德冰川和亚当斯冰川的退缩尤其有影响,在完全耦合模拟中,与非耦合模拟相比,冰-水文反馈驱动了额外10公里的退缩。在低排放情景下,水文驱动的冰架融化增强是全域质量损失的主要原因,但在高排放情景下,冰盖摩擦反馈是次要原因。本文介绍的结果表明,冰-冰川水文相互作用会显著加速南极动态冰川的消退,未来的南极海平面评估如果不考虑这些相互作用,可能会严重低估南极冰盖的质量损失。
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引用次数: 0
Experiment on the Hydrodynamic Characteristics of Plunging Flows in Bedrock Canyon Bends 基岩峡谷弯道中冥流的水动力特性实验
IF 3.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1029/2023JF007387
Bin Li, Haijue Xu, Yuchuan Bai, Jun Lu

Bedrock river incision drives the evolution of the Earth's landscape and is influenced by river hydraulic power. However, the relationship between plunging flows and the curvature of bedrock canyons is poorly understood, which encouraged us to explore how the bend's curvature and undulating beds affect plunging flows. A generalized physical model was built to investigate the hydrodynamic characteristics of plunging flows in a constant curvature flume with plain and undulating beds. Our experimental findings demonstrated that plunging flows were related to secondary circulation, topography, and width-to-depth ratios. Plunging flows occurred when secondary circulation reached its peak, and as secondary circulation vanished, the intensity of plunging flows decreased. The undulating bed topography in the bedrock bends suppressed secondary circulation and the development of plunging flows. Bed topography may be a dominant factor in plunging flows in bedrock bends. The potential erosion area in bedrock bends was related to the intensity of plunging flows, which caused velocity inversion to increase the shear stress near the bed. With higher discharges and undulating beds, the intensity of the transverse shear stress of the riverbed near the center was greater. The potential erosion area in bedrock bends was concentrated at the center of the cross-section around the bend apex upstream. Our experimental results can improve incision models in terms of the distribution of shear stress and flow structure in bedrock bends.

基岩河流切割推动了地球地貌的演变,并受到河流水力的影响。然而,人们对急流与基岩峡谷曲率之间的关系知之甚少,这促使我们探索弯曲的曲率和起伏的河床如何影响急流。我们建立了一个通用物理模型,以研究具有平原和起伏河床的恒定曲率水槽中的急流水动力特性。实验结果表明,柱塞流与二次环流、地形和宽深比有关。当二次环流达到峰值时,就会出现柱塞流;当二次环流消失时,柱塞流的强度就会降低。基岩弯道中起伏的河床地形抑制了次级环流和急流的发展。岩床地形可能是造成基岩弯道急流的主要因素。基岩弯道的潜在侵蚀面积与急流的强度有关,急流导致速度反转,增加了河床附近的剪应力。当排水量较大且河床起伏较大时,河床中心附近的横向剪应力强度更大。基岩弯曲处的潜在侵蚀区域集中在弯曲顶点上游周围的断面中心。我们的实验结果可以从基岩弯曲处的剪应力分布和水流结构方面改进侵蚀模型。
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引用次数: 0
Simulating the Thermal Regime and Surface Energy Balance of a Permafrost-Underlain Forest in Mongolia 模拟蒙古冻土层下森林的热量机制和地表能量平衡
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1029/2023JF007609
Robin B. Zweigel, Avirmed Dashtseren, Khurelbaatar Temuujin, Kristoffer Aalstad, Clare Webster, Simone M. Stuenzi, Kjetil S. Aas, Hanna Lee, Sebastian Westermann

Forests overlap with large parts of the northern hemisphere permafrost area, and representing canopy processes is therefore crucial for simulating thermal and hydrological conditions in these regions. Forests impact permafrost through the modulation of radiative fluxes and exchange of turbulent fluxes, precipitation interception and regulation of transpiration. Forests also feature distinct soil layers of litter and organic matter, which play central roles for the infiltration and evaporation of water, while also providing thermal insulation for deeper ground layers. In this study, we present a new module within the CryoGrid community model to simulate forest ecosystems and their impact on the surface water and energy balance. The module includes a big-leaf vegetation scheme with adaptations for canopy heat storage and transpiration. Furthermore, we account for the effect of surface litter layers on water and energy transfer. We show that the model is capable of simulating radiation, snow cover and ground temperatures below a deciduous needleleaf forest on a north-facing slope in the Khentii Mountains in Central Mongolia. A sensitivity analysis of topographic aspect and ecosystem configuration confirms the important role of the litter layers for the energy and water balance of the ground. Furthermore, it suggests that the presence of permafrost is primarily linked to topographic aspect rather than the presence of forest at this site. The presented model scheme can be used to study the development of the ground thermal regime in forests, including the state of permafrost, under different climate, ecosystem, and land use scenarios.

森林与北半球永久冻土区的大部分区域重叠,因此表现树冠过程对于模拟这些区域的热和水文条件至关重要。森林通过调节辐射通量、湍流通量交换、降水拦截和蒸腾调节对永久冻土产生影响。森林还具有独特的枯落物和有机质土层,这些土层对水的渗透和蒸发起着核心作用,同时还能为更深的地层提供隔热。在本研究中,我们介绍了 CryoGrid 群体模型中的一个新模块,用于模拟森林生态系统及其对地表水和能量平衡的影响。该模块包括一个大叶植被方案,并对冠层蓄热和蒸腾作用进行了调整。此外,我们还考虑了地表垃圾层对水分和能量传递的影响。我们的研究表明,该模型能够模拟蒙古中部肯特山北坡落叶针叶林下的辐射、积雪覆盖和地面温度。对地形面和生态系统配置的敏感性分析证实了枯落物层对地面能量和水分平衡的重要作用。此外,该分析还表明,冻土层的存在主要与地形坡度有关,而不是与该地是否有森林有关。所提出的模型方案可用于研究不同气候、生态系统和土地利用情况下森林地热机制的发展,包括永久冻土的状态。
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引用次数: 0
Uptake and Transfer of Heat Within the Firn Layer of Greenland Ice Sheet's Percolation Zone 格陵兰冰盖渗流区杉木层的吸热和传热
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-06-12 DOI: 10.1029/2024JF007667
Jun Saito, Joel Harper, Neil Humphrey

The thermal field within the firn layer on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) governs meltwater retention processes, firn densification with surface elevation change, and heat transfer from the surface boundary to deep ice. However, there are few observational data to constrain these processes with only sparse in situ temperature time series that does not extend through the full firn depth. Here, we quantify the thermal structure of Western Greenland’s firn column using instrumentation installed in an elevation transect of boreholes extending to 30 and 96 m depth. During the high-melt summer of 2019, heat gain in the firn layer showed strong elevation dependency, with greater uptake and deeper penetration of heat at lower elevations. The bulk thermal conductivity increased by 15% per 100 m elevation loss due to higher density related to ice layers. Nevertheless, the conductive heat gain remained relatively constant along the transect due to stronger temperature gradients in the near surface firn at higher elevations. The primary driver of heat gain during this high melt summer was latent heat transfer, which increased up to ten-fold over the transect, growing by 34 MJ m−2 per 100 m elevation loss. The deep-firn temperature gradient beneath the seasonally active layer doubled over a 270-m elevation drop across the study transect, increasing heat flux from the firn layer into deep ice at lower elevations. Our in situ firn temperature time series offers observational constraints for modeling studies and insights into the future evolution of the percolation zone in a warmer climate.

格陵兰冰原(GrIS)枞树层内的热场控制着融水滞留过程、枞树密度随地表高程变化的变化以及从地表边界到深冰的热传递。然而,用于制约这些过程的观测数据很少,只有稀疏的原地温度时间序列,而且没有延伸到整个枞树层深度。在此,我们利用安装在延伸至 30 米和 96 米深度的钻孔高程横断面上的仪器,量化了格陵兰西部杉柱的热结构。在2019年高融度夏季,杉林层的热增量显示出强烈的海拔依赖性,海拔越低,热量吸收越多,渗透越深。由于冰层密度较高,每降低 100 米海拔,体导热率增加 15%。尽管如此,由于海拔较高处近地表枞树层的温度梯度较大,沿横断面的导热增量仍保持相对稳定。在这个高融化度的夏季,热增量的主要驱动因素是潜热传递,它在横断面上增加了 10 倍,每降低 100 米海拔增加 34 兆焦耳/米-2。在研究断面上,季节性活跃层下的深厚杉层温度梯度在海拔下降 270 米时增加了一倍,增加了从杉层进入低海拔深厚冰层的热通量。我们的原地杉木温度时间序列为建模研究提供了观测约束,并为未来气候变暖时渗流区的演变提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Drivers of Seasonal Land-Ice-Flow Variability in the Antarctic Peninsula 南极半岛季节性陆地冰流变化的驱动因素
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-06-12 DOI: 10.1029/2023JF007378
Karla Boxall, Frazer D. W. Christie, Ian C. Willis, Jan Wuite, Thomas Nagler, Stefan Scheiblauer

Land-ice flow in Antarctica has experienced multi-annual acceleration in response to increased rates of ice thinning, ice-shelf collapse and grounding-line retreat. Superimposed upon this trend, recent observations have revealed that land-ice flow in the Antarctic Peninsula exhibits seasonal velocity variability with distinct summertime speed-ups. The mechanism, or mechanisms, responsible for driving this seasonality are unconstrained at present, yet detailed, process-based understanding of such forcing will be important for accurately estimating Antarctica's future contributions to sea level. Here, we perform time-series analysis on an array of remotely sensed, modeled and reanalysis data sets to examine the influence of potential drivers of ice-flow seasonality in the Antarctic Peninsula. We show that both meltwater presence and ocean temperature act as statistically significant precursors to summertime ice-flow acceleration, although each elicits an ice-velocity response after a distinct lag, with the former prompting a more immediate response. Furthermore, we find that the timing and magnitude of these local drivers are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena, namely the Amundsen Sea Low and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, with the latter initiating an anomalous wintertime ice-flow acceleration event in 2016. This hitherto unidentified link between seasonal ice flow and large-scale climatic forcing may have important implications for ice discharge at and beyond the Antarctic Peninsula in the future, depending upon how the magnitude, frequency and duration of such climate phenomena evolve in a warming world.

由于冰层变薄、冰架坍塌和接地线后退的速度加快,南极洲的陆地冰流经历了多年的加速。在这一趋势的基础上,最近的观测发现,南极半岛的陆地冰流呈现出季节性速度变化,夏季速度明显加快。驱动这种季节性变化的机制目前还不明确,但对这种作用力的详细、基于过程的理解对于准确估计南极洲未来对海平面的贡献非常重要。在此,我们对一系列遥感、建模和再分析数据集进行了时间序列分析,以研究南极半岛冰流季节性潜在驱动因素的影响。我们的研究表明,融水存在和海洋温度在统计学上都是夏季冰流加速的重要前兆,但两者引起的冰速反应都有明显的滞后性,前者引起的反应更为直接。此外,我们还发现这些局部驱动因素的时间和幅度受到大尺度气候现象的影响,即阿蒙森海低海平面和厄尔尼诺南方涛动,后者在 2016 年引发了异常的冬季冰流加速事件。季节性冰流与大尺度气候驱动力之间这种迄今尚未发现的联系,可能会对未来南极半岛内外的冰排放产生重要影响,这取决于在气候变暖的世界中,此类气候现象的规模、频率和持续时间如何演变。
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引用次数: 0
Source, Migration Pathways, and Atmospheric Release of Geologic Methane Associated With the Complex Permafrost Regimes of the Outer Mackenzie River Delta, Northwest Territories, Canada 与加拿大西北地区外麦肯齐河三角洲复杂永久冻土带有关的地质甲烷的来源、迁移途径和大气释放
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-06-12 DOI: 10.1029/2023JF007515
Scott R. Dallimore, Laura L. Lapham, Michelle M. Côté, Robert Bowen, Roger MacLeod, Hadley A. McIntosh Marcek, C. Geoff Wheat, Timothy S. Collett

Sources and fluxes of methane to the atmosphere from permafrost are significant but poorly constrained in global climate models. We present data collected from the variable permafrost setting of the outer Mackenzie River Delta, including observations of aquatic methane seepage, core determinations of in situ methane occurrence and seep gas isotope geochemistry. The sources and locations of in situ geologic methane occurrence and aquatic and atmospheric gas release appear to be controlled by the regional geology and permafrost conditions. Where permafrost is >250 m thick, thermogenic gas deposits at depth are isolated by laterally continuous, low permeability ice-bearing sediments with few through-going thawed taliks. Thus, the observed in situ methane and aquatic gas seepage appears to be dominated by microbial methane. In contrast, where permafrost is <80 m thick, taliks are more likely to be through-going, providing permeable conduits from depth and migration pathways for both thermogenic and biogenic gas. Continuous annual fluid sampling of two lakes and a river channel documents aquatic methane flux from microbial sources, more deeply buried thermogenic sources, and mixtures of both. Using estimates of in situ methane concentration from deep core samples and observations of in situ free gas occurrences, we conclude that the reservoir of in situ geologic methane within ice bonded permafrost is substantial and that this methane is presently migrating with ongoing atmospheric release. It is our assessment that the permafrost setting, and processes described are sensitive to future climate change as the permafrost warms.

甲烷从永久冻土层进入大气的来源和通量很大,但在全球气候模型中却没有得到很好的制约。我们介绍了在外麦肯齐河三角洲多变的永久冻土环境中收集到的数据,包括水生甲烷渗流观测、原地甲烷发生的岩芯测定和渗流气体同位素地球化学。原地地质甲烷产生以及水生和大气气体释放的来源和位置似乎受区域地质和永久冻土条件的控制。在永久冻土层厚度为 250 米的地方,深层热成岩气矿床被横向连续、渗透性低的含冰沉积物所隔离,很少有贯通的解冻滑石。因此,观测到的原地甲烷和水生气体渗流似乎以微生物甲烷为主。相比之下,在永久冻土层厚度为 80 米的地方,滑石更有可能是贯通的,为热源气体和生物源气体提供了来自深层的可渗透管道和迁移途径。每年对两个湖泊和一条河道进行的连续流体取样记录了来自微生物源、埋藏更深的热源以及两者混合物的水生甲烷通量。通过对深层岩芯样本中原地甲烷浓度的估算和对原地游离气体出现情况的观察,我们得出结论:冰粘结永久冻土层中的原地地质甲烷储量巨大,而且这些甲烷目前正在随着大气的不断释放而迁移。根据我们的评估,随着永久冻土变暖,所述的永久冻土环境和过程对未来气候变化很敏感。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
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