Journal of International Economics最新文献

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Local global watchdogs: Trade, sourcing and the internationalization of social activism 当地的全球监管机构：贸易、采购和社会行动主义的国际化

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104116

Pamina Koenig , Sebastian Krautheim , Claudius Löhnert , Thierry Verdier

NGO campaigns criticizing firms for infringements along their internationalized value chains are a salient feature of economic globalization. We argue that understanding the international patterns of NGO campaigns requires accounting for the geography of their targets’ economic activities. We propose a model of global sourcing and international trade in which heterogeneous NGOs campaign against heterogeneous firms in response to infringements along their value chains. We find that campaigns are determined by a triadic gravity equation involving the country of the NGO, the country of the firm as well as the sourcing country. Importantly, independent of the location of the NGO, trade costs between the supplier and the firm shape the patterns of NGO campaigns. We use recently available data to estimate our triadic gravity equation at the NGO level and find strong support for this prediction as well as for other predictions specific to our modeling approach.

非政府组织批评企业在其国际化价值链上的侵权行为是经济全球化的一个显著特征。我们认为，理解非政府组织运动的国际模式需要考虑其目标经济活动的地理位置。我们提出了一个全球采购和国际贸易的模型，在这个模型中，不同的非政府组织针对不同的公司发起运动，以应对其价值链上的侵权行为。我们发现，活动是由一个涉及非政府组织所在国、公司所在国以及采购国的三元重力方程决定的。重要的是，与非政府组织的所在地无关，供应商和公司之间的贸易成本决定了非政府组织活动的模式。我们使用最近可用的数据在非政府组织层面估计我们的三元重力方程，并为这一预测以及其他特定于我们的建模方法的预测找到了强有力的支持。

引用次数: 0

Sovereign Debt Disclosure 主权债务披露

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104118

Bulent Guler , Yasin Kürşat Önder , Temel Taskin

This paper studies debt and default dynamics under alternative disclosure arrangements in a sovereign default model. The government can access both observable and hidden debt. We show that when debt is not fully disclosed, the government does not internalize the full effects of hidden debt choices on bond prices, thereby reducing the cost of holding hidden debt. We find that switching to a full disclosure regime shifts the portfolio from hidden to observable debt, exacerbating the debt dilution problem. Thus, contrary to conventional wisdom, this switch generates welfare losses.

本文研究了主权违约模型中不同披露安排下的债务和违约动态。政府既可以动用看得见的债务，也可以动用隐性债务。我们发现，当债务未完全披露时，政府不会将隐性债务选择对债券价格的全部影响内部化，从而降低持有隐性债务的成本。我们发现，转向全面披露制度将投资组合从隐性债务转向可观察债务，加剧了债务稀释问题。因此，与传统观点相反，这种转变会造成福利损失。

引用次数: 0

Overborrowing and systemic externalities in the business cycle under imperfect information 不完全信息下商业周期中的过度借贷与系统性外部性

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104103

Juan Herreño , Carlos Rondón-Moreno

We study the interaction between imperfect information and financial frictions and their role in financial crises in small open economies. We use a model where households observe income growth but cannot distinguish whether the underlying income shocks are permanent or transitory, and borrowing is subject to a collateral constraint. We show that the combination of imperfect information and a borrowing constraint is a significant source of economic instability. Optimal macroprudential policy helps stabilize the economy by actively taxing debt. Furthermore, the interaction between the collateral constraint and the information friction reshapes the correlation between the optimal tax and the underlying components of income.

我们研究了不完全信息和金融摩擦之间的相互作用及其在小型开放经济体金融危机中的作用。我们使用了一个模型，在这个模型中，家庭观察到收入增长，但无法区分潜在的收入冲击是永久性的还是暂时性的，而且借贷受到抵押品约束。我们表明，不完全信息和借贷约束的结合是经济不稳定的一个重要来源。最优宏观审慎政策通过对债务积极征税来稳定经济。此外，抵押品约束和信息摩擦之间的相互作用重塑了最优税收与收入基础成分之间的相关性。

引用次数: 0

Output divergence in fixed exchange rate regimes 固定汇率制度下的产出差异

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115

Yao Chen , Felix Ward

This paper presents empirical evidence for the violation of nominal exchange regime neutrality. We find that fixing the exchange rate is associated with real output losses among countries with a high pre-peg inflation rate. In particular, ten years after fixing the exchange rate a country with a +1 percentage point (ppt) pre-peg wage inflation differential has a 2% lower real GDP per capita level and a 1% lower TFP level. The tradable sector is more affected than the non-tradable sector, which accords with the former’s greater exposure to international arbitrage.

本文提出了违反名义汇率制度中立性的经验证据。我们发现，固定汇率与挂钩前通胀率较高的国家的实际产出损失有关。特别是，在固定汇率十年后，一个国家在挂钩前工资通胀差异+1个百分点（ppt），实际人均GDP水平降低2%，TFP水平降低1%。可贸易部门比不可贸易部门受到的影响更大，这与前者更容易受到国际套利的影响是一致的。

引用次数: 0

Why hours worked decline less after technology shocks? 为什么科技冲击后工作时间减少较少？

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104095

Olivier Cardi , Romain Restout

The contractionary effect of technology shocks on hours gradually vanishes over time in OECD countries. To rationalize the decline in hours and its disappearance, we use a VAR-based decomposition of technology shocks into symmetric and asymmetric technology improvements. While hours decline dramatically when technology improves at the same rate across sectors, hours significantly increase when technology improvements occur at different rates. Because they are primarily driven by symmetric technology improvements, permanent technology shocks drive down total hours. Such a decline progressively vanishes due to the growing importance of asymmetric technology shocks. To reach these two conclusions, we simulate a two-sector model which can reproduce the contractionary effect on hours once the economy is internationally open and we allow for production factors’ mobility costs, factor-biased technological change, and home bias. To account for the vanishing decline in hours, we have to let the share of asymmetric technology shocks increase over time.

在经合组织国家，技术冲击对工作时间的收缩效应随着时间的推移逐渐消失。为了合理化小时数下降及其消失，我们使用基于var的技术冲击分解为对称和非对称技术改进。当技术以相同的速度进步时，工作时间会急剧减少，而当技术以不同的速度进步时，工作时间会显著增加。因为它们主要是由对称的技术改进驱动的，永久性的技术冲击会降低总工作时间。由于不对称技术冲击的重要性日益增加，这种下降逐渐消失。为了得出这两个结论，我们模拟了一个双部门模型，该模型可以再现经济在国际开放时对时间的收缩效应，并且我们考虑了生产要素的流动成本、要素偏向的技术变革和本土偏见。为了解释工作时间的逐渐减少，我们必须让不对称技术冲击的比例随着时间的推移而增加。

引用次数: 0

Fear of appreciation and current account adjustment 担心升值和经常账户调整

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104121

Paul R. Bergin , Kyunghun Kim , Ju H. Pyun

This paper finds that one-sided nominal exchange rate intervention in the form of “fear of appreciation” slows adjustment of current account surpluses, providing novel support for Friedman's claims of faster adjustment under flexible exchange rates. We find evidence that countries classified as more flexible have faster convergence than peggers for current account deficits, but not so for surpluses. This asymmetry is associated with a one-sided muting of exchange rate appreciations among some countries. We then develop a multi-country monetary model augmented with a “fear of appreciation” policy rule governing foreign exchange intervention, solved as an occasionally binding constraint. The model demonstrates a mechanism by which government capital flows supporting exchange rate regimes can impinge on international financial adjustment. The model accounts for substantial asymmetries in the speed of current account adjustment, based on exchange rate regime and current account sign.

本文发现，以“升值恐惧”为形式的片面名义汇率干预减缓了经常账户盈余的调整，为弗里德曼关于灵活汇率下更快调整的主张提供了新的支持。我们发现，有证据表明，在经常账户赤字方面，被归类为更灵活的国家比挂钩国家收敛得更快，但在盈余方面则不然。这种不对称与一些国家单方面抑制汇率升值有关。然后，我们开发了一个多国货币模型，增强了管理外汇干预的“升值恐惧”政策规则，作为偶尔具有约束力的约束来解决。该模型展示了一种机制，通过这种机制，支持汇率制度的政府资本流动可以影响国际金融调整。该模型考虑了基于汇率机制和经常账户信号的经常账户调整速度的实质性不对称性。

引用次数: 0

Asset price changes, external wealth and global welfare 资产价格变动、外部财富与全球福利

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104122

Timothy Meyer

U.S. equity outperformance and sustained dollar appreciation have led to large valuation gains for the rest of the world on the U.S. external position. I construct their global distribution, carefully accounting for the role of tax havens. Valuation gains are concentrated and large in developed countries, while developing countries have been mostly bypassed. To assess the welfare implications of these capital gains, I adopt a sufficient statistics approach. In contrast to the large wealth changes, most countries so far did not benefit much in welfare terms. This is because they did not rebalance their portfolios and realize their gains. In contrast, direct welfare effects from the dollar appreciation on import and export prices are an order of magnitude larger.

美国股市的优异表现和美元的持续升值，导致世界其他地区对美国外部头寸的估值大幅上升。我构建了它们的全球分布，仔细考虑了避税天堂的作用。估值收益主要集中在发达国家，而发展中国家大多被忽略。为了评估这些资本收益对福利的影响，我采用了充分的统计方法。与巨大的财富变化形成对比的是，到目前为止，大多数国家在福利方面并没有得到多少好处。这是因为他们没有重新平衡他们的投资组合并实现他们的收益。相比之下，美元升值对进出口价格的直接福利效应要大一个数量级。

引用次数: 0

Paper tiger? Chinese science and home bias in citations 纸老虎吗?中国科学与引文中的本土偏见

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104123

Shumin Qiu , Claudia Steinwender , Pierre Azoulay

We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China’s trade in goods and services, where China does not stand out from most industrialized countries. After adjusting citation counts for home bias, we demonstrate that China’s apparent rise in citation rankings is overstated. Our adjusted ranking places China fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and Germany, tempering the perception of China’s scientific dominance.

我们调查了科学引文中的家乡偏见现象，即研究人员不成比例地引用来自自己国家的工作。我们根据国家的相对大小制定了预期引用的基准，将家乡偏见定义为对该规范的偏离。我们的研究结果表明，在所有主要国家和几乎所有研究的科学领域，中国都表现出最大的家乡偏见。这与中国商品和服务贸易的本土偏见形成鲜明对比，中国在大多数工业化国家中并不突出。根据本土偏见调整引文数后，我们发现中国在引文排名上的明显上升被夸大了。在我们调整后的排名中，中国在全球排名第四，仅次于美国、英国和德国，这缓和了人们对中国科学主导地位的看法。

引用次数: 0

Commodity prices and the US dollar 商品价格和美元

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104114

Daniel M. Rees

In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common in the future. This conclusion rests on two observations. First, the US dollar exhibits a close and stable relationship with the US terms of trade. Second, the United States’ shift from being a net oil importer to a net oil exporter means that higher commodity prices now tend to raise the US terms of trade, rather than lowering them. Changes in the relationship between commodity prices and the US dollar will have implications for commodity exporters and importers alike.

在新冠疫情爆发后，大宗商品价格上涨与美元走强并行不悖。这与大宗商品价格与美元之间的通常关系形成鲜明对比。本文提供的证据表明，后covid相关模式在未来可能会变得更加普遍。这一结论基于两个观察结果。首先，美元与美国的贸易条件有着密切而稳定的关系。其次，美国从石油净进口国转变为石油净出口国意味着，目前较高的大宗商品价格往往会提高而不是降低美国的贸易条件。大宗商品价格与美元关系的变化将对大宗商品出口国和进口国都产生影响。

引用次数: 0

Multinational production, technology diffusion, and economic growth 跨国生产、技术扩散和经济增长

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104137

Sheng Cai , Wei Xiang

We develop a tractable growth model to study the dynamic macroeconomic effects of multinational production (MP) across countries. In this framework, MP serves as the channel of international idea diffusion: when firms operate in a foreign country, they contribute to the local stock of knowledge. By embedding this mechanism into a quantitative model of trade and MP, we characterize the evolution of bilateral MP flows, trade flows, and technology dynamics across 54 economies. Counterfactual analysis reveals that reduction in MP costs boosted economic growth, especially in developing economies. We show that a 10-year MP sanction on Russia would reduce the welfare by 9.11%, although the immediate effect is small. We find that increasing outward MP costs for U.S. firms has immediate positive wage effects but negative growth implications. Additionally, a 10% increase in U.S. inward trade costs results in a 0.2% decline in the country’s present value of welfare.

我们开发了一个易于处理的增长模型来研究跨国生产（MP）的动态宏观经济效应。在这个框架中，知识产权充当了国际思想传播的渠道：当企业在外国经营时，它们为当地的知识储备做出了贡献。通过将这一机制嵌入贸易和出口出口的定量模型，我们描绘了54个经济体双边出口出口流动、贸易流动和技术动态的演变特征。反事实分析表明，MP成本的降低促进了经济增长，尤其是在发展中经济体。我们表明，国会对俄罗斯的10年制裁将使福利减少9.11%，尽管直接影响很小。我们发现，对美国企业来说，增加外部MP成本对工资有直接的积极影响，但对增长有负面影响。此外，美国对内贸易成本每增加10%，美国的福利现值就会下降0.2%。

引用次数: 0

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