Journal of International Economics最新文献

英文中文

Sticky capital controls 粘性资本管制

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104104

Miguel Acosta-Henao , Laura Alfaro , Andrés Fernández

With a new quarterly dataset on the intensive margin of priced-based capital controls, complemented with extensive measures (restrictions, prohibitions, and authorizations) constructed using text analysis, we document that capital controls are “sticky”. Changes to price-based controls do not occur frequently; and when they do, they display high autocorrelation. Extensive measures also show considerable persistence. We then augment a model of capital controls relying on pecuniary externalities with an

(S, s)

cost of implementing such policies, and illustrate how this friction goes a long way toward bringing the model closer to the data. When the extended model is calibrated to the countries in the new dataset, we find that the size of these costs is large, substantially reducing the welfare-enhancing effects of capital controls in the frictionless Ramsey benchmark without

(S, s)

costs. This calls for a richer set of policy constraints when modeling the optimal use of capital controls.

通过一个关于基于价格的资本管制密集边际的新季度数据集，再加上使用文本分析构建的广泛措施（限制、禁止和授权），我们证明资本管制具有“粘性”。以价格为基础的管制不会经常发生变化；当它们这样做时，它们表现出高度的自相关性。广泛的测量也显示出相当大的持久性。然后，我们用实施此类政策的成本（S， S）来增强依赖于货币外部性的资本管制模型，并说明这种摩擦如何在很大程度上使模型更接近数据。当将扩展模型校准到新数据集中的国家时，我们发现这些成本的规模很大，大大降低了没有（S， S）成本的无摩擦拉姆齐基准中资本管制的福利增强效应。这就要求在对资本管制的最佳使用进行建模时，需要一套更丰富的政策约束。

{"title":"Sticky capital controls","authors":"Miguel Acosta-Henao , Laura Alfaro , Andrés Fernández","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With a new quarterly dataset on the intensive margin of priced-based capital controls, complemented with extensive measures (restrictions, prohibitions, and authorizations) constructed using text analysis, we document that capital controls are “sticky”. Changes to price-based controls do not occur frequently; and when they do, they display high autocorrelation. Extensive measures also show considerable persistence. We then augment a model of capital controls relying on pecuniary externalities with an <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>S</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>s</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> cost of implementing such policies, and illustrate how this friction goes a long way toward bringing the model closer to the data. When the extended model is calibrated to the countries in the new dataset, we find that the size of these costs is large, substantially reducing the welfare-enhancing effects of capital controls in the frictionless Ramsey benchmark without <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>S</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>s</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> costs. This calls for a richer set of policy constraints when modeling the optimal use of capital controls.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104104"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Demographics and real interest rates across countries and over time 不同国家和不同时期的人口结构和实际利率

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104127

Carlos Carvalho , Andrea Ferrero , Felipe Mazin , Fernanda Nechio

We explore implications of demographic trends for real interest rates across countries and over time in a tractable multicountry model with imperfect capital mobility. We calibrate it to examine how the interaction of international financial integration and both domestic and foreign demographics shapes low-frequency movements in a country’s real rate. In more financially integrated countries, real rates are more sensitive to global developments than to domestic factors. We estimate panel error-correction models relating real rates to various drivers, imposing some structure informed by the model. Empirical results confirm global factors and domestic demographics are robust determinants of real rates. Alternative specifications highlight the importance of accounting for time-varying financial integration and a broad set of real rate drivers. Both model and empirical results suggest demographic trends explain a meaningful share of the global decline in real rates. Given projections, demographics should continue to exert downward pressure on real rates.

我们在一个不完全资本流动的可处理的多国模型中探索人口趋势对各国实际利率的影响。我们对其进行校准，以研究国际金融一体化与国内外人口结构的相互作用如何影响一国实际汇率的低频波动。在金融一体化程度较高的国家，实际利率对全球发展比对国内因素更为敏感。我们估计了面板误差修正模型，将实际利率与各种驱动因素联系起来，强加一些由模型告知的结构。实证结果证实，全球因素和国内人口结构是实际利率的有力决定因素。替代规范强调了考虑时变金融整合和广泛的实际利率驱动因素的重要性。模型和实证结果都表明，人口趋势在很大程度上解释了全球实际利率的下降。根据预测，人口结构应该会继续对实际利率施加下行压力。

引用次数: 0

Measuring foreign exposure 测量外来接触

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104126

Jean Imbs , Laurent Pauwels

We introduce a model-based approximation for assessing foreign exposure via direct and indirect trade. In the model, exposure can be approximated by the fraction of production sold abroad, either directly or indirectly. Simulations show that this ratio accurately reflects the responses of value added to foreign supply shocks across most of the parameter space. It also effectively captures the responses of value added to foreign demand or trade shocks for a more restricted range of parameters. Conversely, other well-known metrics of foreign exposure do not perform well in the simulations. Data show that our measure of foreign exposure correlates significantly with various measures of economic activity, even in service sectors generally thought to be insulated from foreign influences. In contrast, these correlations are either insignificant or incorrectly signed when alternative measures of foreign exposure are used.

我们引入了一个基于模型的近似值来评估通过直接和间接贸易产生的对外风险。在该模型中，敞口可以用直接或间接销往国外的产品的比例来近似表示。模拟表明，这一比率准确地反映了在大多数参数空间中增加的价值对外国供应冲击的反应。它还有效地捕捉了附加值对外国需求或贸易冲击的反应，其参数范围更为有限。相反，其他众所周知的外国敞口指标在模拟中表现不佳。数据显示，我们对外国风险敞口的衡量与经济活动的各种衡量显著相关，即使在通常被认为不受外国影响的服务部门也是如此。相比之下，当使用替代的外国暴露度量时，这些相关性要么是微不足道的，要么是不正确的。

引用次数: 0

Asset price changes, external wealth and global welfare 资产价格变动、外部财富与全球福利

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104122

Timothy Meyer

U.S. equity outperformance and sustained dollar appreciation have led to large valuation gains for the rest of the world on the U.S. external position. I construct their global distribution, carefully accounting for the role of tax havens. Valuation gains are concentrated and large in developed countries, while developing countries have been mostly bypassed. To assess the welfare implications of these capital gains, I adopt a sufficient statistics approach. In contrast to the large wealth changes, most countries so far did not benefit much in welfare terms. This is because they did not rebalance their portfolios and realize their gains. In contrast, direct welfare effects from the dollar appreciation on import and export prices are an order of magnitude larger.

美国股市的优异表现和美元的持续升值，导致世界其他地区对美国外部头寸的估值大幅上升。我构建了它们的全球分布，仔细考虑了避税天堂的作用。估值收益主要集中在发达国家，而发展中国家大多被忽略。为了评估这些资本收益对福利的影响，我采用了充分的统计方法。与巨大的财富变化形成对比的是，到目前为止，大多数国家在福利方面并没有得到多少好处。这是因为他们没有重新平衡他们的投资组合并实现他们的收益。相比之下，美元升值对进出口价格的直接福利效应要大一个数量级。

引用次数: 0

Paper tiger? Chinese science and home bias in citations 纸老虎吗?中国科学与引文中的本土偏见

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104123

Shumin Qiu , Claudia Steinwender , Pierre Azoulay

We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China’s trade in goods and services, where China does not stand out from most industrialized countries. After adjusting citation counts for home bias, we demonstrate that China’s apparent rise in citation rankings is overstated. Our adjusted ranking places China fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and Germany, tempering the perception of China’s scientific dominance.

我们调查了科学引文中的家乡偏见现象，即研究人员不成比例地引用来自自己国家的工作。我们根据国家的相对大小制定了预期引用的基准，将家乡偏见定义为对该规范的偏离。我们的研究结果表明，在所有主要国家和几乎所有研究的科学领域，中国都表现出最大的家乡偏见。这与中国商品和服务贸易的本土偏见形成鲜明对比，中国在大多数工业化国家中并不突出。根据本土偏见调整引文数后，我们发现中国在引文排名上的明显上升被夸大了。在我们调整后的排名中，中国在全球排名第四，仅次于美国、英国和德国，这缓和了人们对中国科学主导地位的看法。

引用次数: 0

Sovereign Debt Disclosure 主权债务披露

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104118

Bulent Guler , Yasin Kürşat Önder , Temel Taskin

This paper studies debt and default dynamics under alternative disclosure arrangements in a sovereign default model. The government can access both observable and hidden debt. We show that when debt is not fully disclosed, the government does not internalize the full effects of hidden debt choices on bond prices, thereby reducing the cost of holding hidden debt. We find that switching to a full disclosure regime shifts the portfolio from hidden to observable debt, exacerbating the debt dilution problem. Thus, contrary to conventional wisdom, this switch generates welfare losses.

本文研究了主权违约模型中不同披露安排下的债务和违约动态。政府既可以动用看得见的债务，也可以动用隐性债务。我们发现，当债务未完全披露时，政府不会将隐性债务选择对债券价格的全部影响内部化，从而降低持有隐性债务的成本。我们发现，转向全面披露制度将投资组合从隐性债务转向可观察债务，加剧了债务稀释问题。因此，与传统观点相反，这种转变会造成福利损失。

引用次数: 0

Local global watchdogs: Trade, sourcing and the internationalization of social activism 当地的全球监管机构：贸易、采购和社会行动主义的国际化

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104116

Pamina Koenig , Sebastian Krautheim , Claudius Löhnert , Thierry Verdier

NGO campaigns criticizing firms for infringements along their internationalized value chains are a salient feature of economic globalization. We argue that understanding the international patterns of NGO campaigns requires accounting for the geography of their targets’ economic activities. We propose a model of global sourcing and international trade in which heterogeneous NGOs campaign against heterogeneous firms in response to infringements along their value chains. We find that campaigns are determined by a triadic gravity equation involving the country of the NGO, the country of the firm as well as the sourcing country. Importantly, independent of the location of the NGO, trade costs between the supplier and the firm shape the patterns of NGO campaigns. We use recently available data to estimate our triadic gravity equation at the NGO level and find strong support for this prediction as well as for other predictions specific to our modeling approach.

非政府组织批评企业在其国际化价值链上的侵权行为是经济全球化的一个显著特征。我们认为，理解非政府组织运动的国际模式需要考虑其目标经济活动的地理位置。我们提出了一个全球采购和国际贸易的模型，在这个模型中，不同的非政府组织针对不同的公司发起运动，以应对其价值链上的侵权行为。我们发现，活动是由一个涉及非政府组织所在国、公司所在国以及采购国的三元重力方程决定的。重要的是，与非政府组织的所在地无关，供应商和公司之间的贸易成本决定了非政府组织活动的模式。我们使用最近可用的数据在非政府组织层面估计我们的三元重力方程，并为这一预测以及其他特定于我们的建模方法的预测找到了强有力的支持。

引用次数: 0

Fear of appreciation and current account adjustment 担心升值和经常账户调整

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104121

Paul R. Bergin , Kyunghun Kim , Ju H. Pyun

This paper finds that one-sided nominal exchange rate intervention in the form of “fear of appreciation” slows adjustment of current account surpluses, providing novel support for Friedman's claims of faster adjustment under flexible exchange rates. We find evidence that countries classified as more flexible have faster convergence than peggers for current account deficits, but not so for surpluses. This asymmetry is associated with a one-sided muting of exchange rate appreciations among some countries. We then develop a multi-country monetary model augmented with a “fear of appreciation” policy rule governing foreign exchange intervention, solved as an occasionally binding constraint. The model demonstrates a mechanism by which government capital flows supporting exchange rate regimes can impinge on international financial adjustment. The model accounts for substantial asymmetries in the speed of current account adjustment, based on exchange rate regime and current account sign.

本文发现，以“升值恐惧”为形式的片面名义汇率干预减缓了经常账户盈余的调整，为弗里德曼关于灵活汇率下更快调整的主张提供了新的支持。我们发现，有证据表明，在经常账户赤字方面，被归类为更灵活的国家比挂钩国家收敛得更快，但在盈余方面则不然。这种不对称与一些国家单方面抑制汇率升值有关。然后，我们开发了一个多国货币模型，增强了管理外汇干预的“升值恐惧”政策规则，作为偶尔具有约束力的约束来解决。该模型展示了一种机制，通过这种机制，支持汇率制度的政府资本流动可以影响国际金融调整。该模型考虑了基于汇率机制和经常账户信号的经常账户调整速度的实质性不对称性。

引用次数: 0

Beyond the spike at zero: Understanding nominal wage rigidity through empirical and model-based approaches 超越零峰值：通过实证和基于模型的方法理解名义工资刚性

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104117

Yoon Joo Jo

I examine the cyclical properties of nominal wage change distributions across time and US states using nationally representative household surveys from 1979 to 2018. The novel finding is that the share of workers with no wage changes, which accounts for the large spike at zero in the nominal wage change distribution, is more countercyclical than the share of workers with wage cuts. I analyze heterogeneous agent models with six alternative wage-setting schemes and conclude that the model with downward nominal wage rigidity is the most consistent with empirical findings regarding the shape and cyclicality of wage change distributions.

我利用1979年至2018年具有全国代表性的家庭调查，研究了不同时间和美国各州名义工资变化分布的周期性特征。这一新颖的发现是，工资没有变化的工人所占的比例，也就是名义工资变化分布在零时大幅飙升的原因，比工资减少的工人所占的比例更具反周期性。我分析了具有六种不同工资设定方案的异质代理模型，并得出结论，具有向下名义工资刚性的模型与关于工资变化分布的形状和周期性的实证研究结果最一致。

引用次数: 0

Output divergence in fixed exchange rate regimes 固定汇率制度下的产出差异

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics

Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115

Yao Chen , Felix Ward

This paper presents empirical evidence for the violation of nominal exchange regime neutrality. We find that fixing the exchange rate is associated with real output losses among countries with a high pre-peg inflation rate. In particular, ten years after fixing the exchange rate a country with a +1 percentage point (ppt) pre-peg wage inflation differential has a 2% lower real GDP per capita level and a 1% lower TFP level. The tradable sector is more affected than the non-tradable sector, which accords with the former’s greater exposure to international arbitrage.

本文提出了违反名义汇率制度中立性的经验证据。我们发现，固定汇率与挂钩前通胀率较高的国家的实际产出损失有关。特别是，在固定汇率十年后，一个国家在挂钩前工资通胀差异+1个百分点（ppt），实际人均GDP水平降低2%，TFP水平降低1%。可贸易部门比不可贸易部门受到的影响更大，这与前者更容易受到国际套利的影响是一致的。

引用次数: 0

首页上一页

下一页尾页

类型

全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

数据库

全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Journal of International Economics

全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.

﹀