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Vulnerability assessment of offshore platform emergency response system based on cloud model 基于云模型的海上平台应急响应系统脆弱性评估
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105842
Yue Liu, Guoming Chen
The working environment of deep-sea platforms is complex and harsh, with frequent incidents of fire and explosion. In the event of an accident, there is a high probability of significant casualties, environmental pollution, and economic losses. The assessment of vulnerabilities in emergency systems is instrumental in facilitating a comprehensive understanding of the safety risks confronted by offshore platforms. This assessment enables the timely identification of potential vulnerabilities in emergency systems, thereby reducing the likelihood of accidents. The present paper puts forth a vulnerability assessment model for emergency systems of offshore platforms. This model is based on the theoretical framework of cloud model theory. Firstly, an assessment index system for the vulnerability of offshore drilling platform emergencies was constructed. This system was constructed by applying the principles of human factors engineering to the specific characteristics of the emergency management system of offshore drilling platforms. Expert experience is combined with subjective weighting of risk factors through expert scoring. The objective weighting method, CRITIC, is then used to calculate the correlations and conflicts between the indicators. Finally, game theory is used to calculate the composite weights for the evaluation factors, providing the optimal weightings. In consideration of the factors that engender vulnerability, the cloud model—which is characterized by its fuzzy and random properties—was adopted for the purpose of assessing the vulnerability of the emergency response system. A standard cloud diagram was established based on the quantitative grading standards. The digital characteristic values of each risk indicator were calculated using MATLAB software, and a cloud risk assessment diagram was generated based on this, which can visually display the vulnerability level of each indicator. The research content provides a theoretical basis and reference for the daily safety management and emergency response decision-making of offshore drilling platforms.
深海平台工作环境复杂恶劣,火灾、爆炸事故频发。一旦发生事故,极有可能造成重大人员伤亡、环境污染和经济损失。应急系统脆弱性评估有助于全面了解海上平台面临的安全风险。这种评估能够及时识别应急系统中的潜在漏洞,从而降低事故发生的可能性。提出了海上平台应急系统脆弱性评估模型。该模型基于云模式理论的理论框架。首先,构建了海上钻井平台突发事件脆弱性评价指标体系。本系统是针对海洋钻井平台应急管理系统的具体特点,应用人因工程原理构建的。通过专家评分,将专家经验与风险因素的主观权重相结合。然后使用客观加权法(CRITIC)来计算指标之间的相关性和冲突。最后,利用博弈论计算各评价因子的综合权重,给出最优权重。考虑到产生脆弱性的因素,采用具有模糊性和随机性的云模型对应急响应系统的脆弱性进行评估。根据定量分级标准,建立了标准云图。利用MATLAB软件计算各风险指标的数字特征值,并在此基础上生成云风险评估图,可以直观地显示各指标的脆弱性等级。研究内容为海上钻井平台的日常安全管理和应急响应决策提供了理论依据和参考。
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引用次数: 0
Uniform corrosion assessment in oil and gas pipelines using commercial corrosion prediction models – Part 2: uncertainty and risk considerations based on statistical analyses of gravimetric laboratorial tests, offshore pipelines inspections, and manufacturing tolerances 使用商业腐蚀预测模型的石油和天然气管道的统一腐蚀评估。第2部分:基于重力实验室试验、海上管道检查和制造公差的统计分析的不确定性和风险考虑
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105836
João Pedro Bachega Cruz , Edilson Gabriel Veruz , Idalina Vieira Aoki , Adriana Miralles Schleder , Gilberto Francisco Martha de Souza , Gustavo Leitão Vaz , Leonardo Oliveira de Barros , Rene Thiago Capelari Orlowski , Marcelo Ramos Martins
Uniform Corrosion stands out as the main damage mechanism attacking the inner surface of oil and gas pipelines, especially in the offshore context, resulting in equipment losses and economic, safety, and environmental consequences. This challenge highlights the literature growing interest for uniform corrosion prediction/inference. Discussion about uniform corrosion assessment, related parameters, and modelling and data collection procedures and limitations were presented in this study's Part 1, resulting from applications of commercial models in operational cases. In counterpoint, over-criticism and oversimplification about commercial models' performance were noticed in a literature review cycle, with inappropriate/insufficient applications and/or superficial evaluations, suggesting imprecise and accurate results, respectively, both approaches recurrently neglecting statistical and uncertainty discussions. This research compares different scenarios through an uncertainty evaluation perspective, analysing information from laboratorial gravimetric tests rehearsing operation, offshore inspections in christmas trees pipelines, and industrial manufacturing tolerances. As results, inherent uncertainty is identified for uniform corrosion process, uncertainty-based adequate prediction range and production lines' hazardous position are established, and discussion about uncertainties is addressed. Procedures for comparing identical laboratorial tests and models' predictions against measurements allow a performance comparison between available models, characterizing their prediction domains in accordance with their predictive behaviour in terms of conservatism.
均匀腐蚀是石油和天然气管道内表面的主要破坏机制,特别是在海上环境中,会导致设备损失以及经济、安全和环境后果。这一挑战凸显了文献对均匀腐蚀预测/推理日益增长的兴趣。本研究的第1部分讨论了统一腐蚀评估、相关参数、建模和数据收集程序和局限性,这些都是商业模型在实际应用中的结果。相反,在文献回顾周期中,对商业模型性能的过度批评和过度简化被注意到,不适当/不充分的应用和/或肤浅的评估,分别表明不精确和准确的结果,这两种方法都反复忽视统计和不确定性的讨论。本研究通过不确定性评估的角度比较了不同的场景,分析了来自实验室重力测试、预演操作、海上采油树管道检查和工业制造公差的信息。确定了均匀腐蚀过程的固有不确定性,建立了基于不确定性的适当预测范围和生产线的危险位置,并对不确定性进行了讨论。将相同的实验室测试和模型的预测与测量相比较的程序允许在现有模型之间进行性能比较,根据其保守性方面的预测行为描述其预测域的特征。
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引用次数: 0
Research on risk factors for long-distance pipelines affected by heavy rainfall: Screening methods and impact pathways 长输管道暴雨影响风险因素研究:筛选方法与影响路径
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105846
Hongjiao Zhou , Haize Pan , Xing Huang
To enhance the effectiveness of diagnosing and warning against disaster risk for long-distance pipelines under rainstorm conditions, a risk-factor system encompassing hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity is constructed. A hierarchical correlation redundancy screening method (HCRS) is proposed for factor selection. In the first stage, a dual criterion of correlation and coefficient of variation is used to remove local redundancy and form a primary factor set. In the second stage, the information redundancy contribution index is used to eliminate factors that make significant contributions to the overall correlation, resulting in the final set. The screened factor system achieves an information interpretation intensity index of 1.033 and a cumulative information contribution rate of 89.9 %, outperforming K-medoids and K-means baselines. Furthermore, fsQCA is employed for configurational path analysis, identifying six risk-formation pathways that aggregate into three types: protection-gap, natural-hazard, and topographic counterexample. Across the solutions, meteorological characteristics of heavy rainfall, terrain and geomorphological conditions, and the social environment around the pipeline repeatedly appear as core conditions and key drivers. The approach reduces redundancy while retaining salient information, elucidates the multi-path mechanisms of risk formation, and provides methodological support for risk prediction and early warning of long-distance pipelines under rainstorm conditions.
为提高暴雨条件下长输管道灾害风险诊断预警的有效性,构建了包括危害、暴露、脆弱性和能力在内的长输管道灾害风险因子系统。提出了一种分层相关冗余筛选法(HCRS)进行因子选择。第一阶段采用相关系数和变异系数双重准则去除局部冗余,形成主因子集;第二阶段,利用信息冗余贡献指数剔除对整体相关性贡献较大的因素,得到最终集合。筛选因子体系的信息解释强度指数为1.033,累计信息贡献率为89.9%,优于k - mediids和K-means基线。此外,fsQCA用于构型路径分析,确定了六种风险形成路径,这些路径聚合为三种类型:保护缺口、自然灾害和地形反例。在解决方案中,强降雨的气象特征、地形地貌条件、管道周边的社会环境反复出现,成为核心条件和关键驱动因素。该方法在减少冗余的同时保留重要信息,阐明了风险形成的多路径机制,为暴雨条件下长输管道风险预测和预警提供了方法支持。
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引用次数: 0
Industrial process safety and thermal analysis: State of the art and the future 工业过程安全和热分析:现状和未来
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105847
Kaiqiang Jin , Chi-Min Shu , Peng Qin , Qingsong Wang
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引用次数: 0
Domain-augmented large language models for automated root cause classification of offshore process incidents 用于离岸过程事件的自动化根本原因分类的领域增强大型语言模型
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105845
Haoyu Yang , Chi-Yang Li , Qingsheng Wang
Process industry incidents can inflict fatalities, heavy economic losses, and reputational harm, making robust Process Safety Management (PSM) essential. Yet the volume and free-text nature of modern investigation records outstrip human analytic capacity. We present a domain-augmented large language model (LLM) framework that combines structured Chain-of-Thought prompting with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) to classify offshore-platform incident reports into the 11 top-level root cause categories defined in the ABS Group Root Cause Map™. A total of 1182 Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) district investigation reports were parsed into structured JSON format, while ABS definitions and illustrative examples were embedded into a FAISS index to support on-the-fly retrieval. Four prompting setups were benchmarked with GPT-4o-mini on 100 randomly selected reports. The Domain CoT + RAG model raised document-level set-based F1-score from 0.552 (zero-shot baseline) to 0.663, driven by a 17 % higher precision. Predicted categories per report fell from 3.92 to 2.78, close to the human average of 2.55, showing that domain context curbs over-classification without sacrificing coverage. Category-level analysis revealed high performance in major categories such as Equipment Reliability, Procedure, and Human Factors (F1 > 0.75), while challenges persisted in Design and Documentation, which require more implicit causal reasoning. Conditional-probability mapping across the full dataset reproduced expected clusters of human-related failures consistent with risk-based PSM theory. These findings demonstrate that combining domain-specific prompts with information retrieval significantly enhances the reasoning capacity of generative LLMs for multi-label safety analytics, offering a scalable, low-cost pathway toward digitizing incident investigations.
过程工业事故可能造成死亡、严重的经济损失和声誉损害,这使得健壮的过程安全管理(PSM)变得至关重要。然而,现代调查记录的数量和自由文本的性质超过了人类的分析能力。我们提出了一个领域增强的大型语言模型(LLM)框架,该框架结合了结构化的思维链提示和检索增强生成(RAG),将海上平台事件报告分类为ABS集团根本原因图™中定义的11个顶级根本原因类别。将安全与环境执法局(BSEE)共1182份地区调查报告解析为结构化JSON格式,同时将ABS定义和说明示例嵌入FAISS索引中,以支持实时检索。在随机选择的100份报告上,使用gpt - 40 -mini对四种提示设置进行基准测试。Domain CoT + RAG模型将基于文档级集的f1得分从0.552(零射击基线)提高到0.663,精度提高了17%。每个报告的预测分类从3.92下降到2.78,接近人类2.55的平均水平,表明领域上下文在不牺牲覆盖率的情况下抑制了过度分类。类别水平分析显示,在设备可靠性、程序和人为因素等主要类别中表现优异(F1 > 0.75),而在设计和文档方面仍然存在挑战,这需要更多的隐性因果推理。整个数据集的条件-概率映射再现了与基于风险的PSM理论一致的人类相关故障的预期集群。这些发现表明,将特定领域的提示与信息检索相结合,可以显著增强生成法学硕士的多标签安全分析推理能力,为数字化事件调查提供了可扩展、低成本的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Aging and hazardous properties of environmentally friendly firecrackers with explosion sound effects 具有爆炸声效的环保鞭炮的老化和危险特性
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105843
Chin-Lung Chiang , Wei-Cheng Lin , Chu-Yuan Yang , Wei-Chun Chen
In the modern age, the gunpowder traditionally used in firecrackers with explosion sound effects is frequently replaced with environmentally friendly alternatives to achieve sustainability. However, the components of these alternatives can pose thermal hazards in the manufacturing, storage, and deployment phases, and few studies have assessed the effects of storage duration on such components under real-world environmental conditions. The present study evaluated the influences of aging and duration of storage at ambient temperature on the hazard-related properties of environmentally friendly firecrackers.
The test samples were gunpowder from environmentally friendly firecrackers manufactured in 2012 (sample PL) or 2022 (sample PN). Field-emission scanning electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy revealed that sample PL exhibited more surface cracks and oxide formation due to oxidation and aging. The minimum ignition energy results show that both samples require more than 1000 mJ for ignition and do not exhibit explosive combustion. Therefore, their ignition delay time and combustion duration could not be determined. For traditional firecrackers, the ignition delay time is substantially longer when the firecracker has been stored for longer, leading to greater instability and a higher risk of associated hazards and affecting performance and operational safety. However, the difference in mass loss between samples PL and PN was only 1.115 %. These findings and those in the literature indicate that environmentally friendly firecrackers offer environmental benefits and remain safe after extended storage. Nevertheless, the safety of all types of firecracker is influenced by storage conditions and duration. Future research should prioritize enhancing safety regulations and formulations for firecrackers.
在现代,传统上用于鞭炮的火药经常被环保替代品所取代,以实现可持续发展。然而,这些替代品的组件可能在制造、储存和部署阶段造成热危害,并且很少有研究评估在现实环境条件下储存时间对这些组件的影响。本研究评估了环境温度下的老化和储存时间对环境友好型鞭炮的危害相关特性的影响。测试样品为2012年(样品PL)或2022年(样品PN)生产的环保鞭炮的火药。场发射扫描电镜和x射线光电子能谱分析表明,由于氧化和老化,样品PL表面出现了更多的裂纹和氧化物形成。最小点火能量结果表明,两种样品都需要超过1000 mJ的点火能量,并且不表现出爆炸性燃烧。因此,它们的点火延迟时间和燃烧持续时间无法确定。对于传统鞭炮来说,爆竹存放时间越长,其点火延迟时间就越长,导致不稳定性更大,产生相关危害的风险更高,影响性能和操作安全。然而,样品PL和PN之间的质量损失差异仅为1.115%。这些发现和文献中的发现表明,环保鞭炮具有环境效益,并且在长期储存后仍然安全。然而,各种类型的鞭炮的安全性受到储存条件和持续时间的影响。未来的研究应优先考虑加强鞭炮的安全法规和配方。
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引用次数: 0
A prediction method for emergency response window period based on unity and multi theoretical model fusion 基于统一与多理论模型融合的应急响应窗口期预测方法
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105811
Tingrui Wang, Xiaoyun Zheng, Zhaoyuan Wu, Yifan Song, Jianmin Fu
Real-time information on accidents involving hazardous material leaks is crucial for emergency responders to take appropriate actions. Unclear information can easily lead to secondary harm. This study proposes a method addressing the key research gap in determining dynamic emergency response windows in chemical industrial parks. Focusing on hydrogen production facilities in coal chemical plants, a theoretical framework for safety window assessment is established. Based on the GM(1,N) model, information-driven theory, and the GERTS time prediction model, a predictive model for emergency response windows is developed using the Unity method. Time evolution patterns under different scenarios are systematically investigated. Scientifically optimized strategies for emergency operations are proposed. This research helps bridge the current gap in defining dynamic emergency response windows in chemical parks and provides a theoretical foundation and data support for advancing clear emergency evacuation guidelines.
涉及危险物质泄漏事故的实时信息对于应急人员采取适当行动至关重要。不明确的信息很容易导致二次伤害。本文提出了一种解决化工园区动态应急响应窗口确定的关键研究空白的方法。以煤化工制氢设施为研究对象,建立了安全窗口评价的理论框架。基于GM(1,n)模型、信息驱动理论和GERTS时间预测模型,采用Unity方法建立了应急响应窗口预测模型。系统研究了不同情景下的时间演化模式。提出了科学优化的应急行动策略。该研究有助于弥补目前化工园区动态应急响应窗口定义的空白,为制定明确的应急疏散指南提供理论基础和数据支持。
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引用次数: 0
A CFD-PSR integrated study on evolutionary impacts of personnel operations on emergency response consequence 人员操作对应急响应结果演化影响的CFD-PSR综合研究
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105841
Zhengtan Liang , Jianmin Fu , Yifan Song , Zhaoyuan Wu , Shaopeng Li , Dandan Zeng
This paper proposes an analytical framework integrating the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model and CFD to quantify risks from dynamic accident evolution triggered by personnel operational errors in petrochemical plants. Firstly, the evolution path of accident scenarios is constructed using the PSR model, which distinguishes between effective and ineffective personnel response branches. Secondly, CFD software simulates key scenarios from the Shanghai Petrochemical “5·29” incident, including naphtha leakage, flash explosions, and pool fires, to quantify the consequences resulting from different personnel operations. Finally, personnel operational risk is quantified, and correlations between personnel operations (valve closure timing, emergency shutdown initiation, and water spray activation) and the severity of consequences are established through correspondence analysis and comparison of consequences against different response paths. Results indicate that the optimal personnel emergency response path reduces Fatalities per Unit Time (FPUT) to 0, whereas the worst response path increases it to 2.67 × 10−3/s, which confirms that the timeliness and completeness of the response are key to curbing the escalation of the accident.
本文提出了一个将压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型与CFD相结合的分析框架,用于量化石油化工装置人员操作失误引发的事故动态演变风险。首先,利用PSR模型构建事故场景演化路径,区分有效和无效人员响应分支;其次,利用CFD软件模拟上海石化“5.29”事故的关键场景,包括石脑油泄漏、闪爆、池火等,量化不同人员操作造成的后果。最后,对人员操作风险进行量化,通过对不同响应路径下的后果对应分析和比较,建立人员操作(阀门关闭时机、紧急停机启动、喷水启动)与后果严重程度的相关性。结果表明,最优人员应急响应路径将单位时间死亡人数(death per Unit Time, FPUT)降低至0,最差响应路径将单位时间死亡人数(death per Unit Time, FPUT)提高至2.67 × 10−3/s,说明响应的及时性和完整性是控制事故升级的关键。
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引用次数: 0
Seasonal dependence of thermal hazards in solid recovered fuels: Insights from STA, AIT, and thermodynamics evaluation 固体回收燃料中热危害的季节依赖性:来自STA, AIT和热力学评估的见解
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105838
Tzu-Yu Yen , Wei-Cheng Lin , Chen-Rui Cao , Chi-Min Shu
The expedious increase in municipal solid waste and energy demand has highlighted the urgent need for safe and efficient waste-to-energy technologies, yet spontaneous combustion during solid recovered fuel (SRF) production and storage remains a pronounced safety concern. This study investigated SRF samples collected across different seasons in central Taiwan using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), auto-ignition temperature testing, and elemental analysis, integrated with advanced thermodynamic modelling. Autumn and winter samples exhibited the lowest ash content (12.46%) and apparent activation energy (Ea, 120.3 kJ/mol), along with the highest moisture content (29.68%), indicating the greatest thermal hazard. The elevated moisture content promotes microbial activity and heat accumulation during drying, delaying heat dissipation and thereby increasing the likelihood of self-heating. In contrast, summer samples, while not having the lowest apparent activation energy, show elevated combustible matter, carbon, and oxygen contents, and a higher calorific value, suggesting that careful management is still necessary to prevent self-heating. These results quantify the seasonal variation in SRF thermal stability, offering new insights into the climatic influence on combustion risk. The findings provide both scientific evidence and practical guidance for the safe storage, transportation, and utilisation of SRF in energy conversion processes, highlighting the study’s unique contribution to understanding SRF safety under varying environmental conditions.
城市固体废物和能源需求的迅速增加突出了对安全有效的废物转化为能源技术的迫切需要,但固体回收燃料(SRF)生产和储存过程中的自燃仍然是一个明显的安全问题。本研究利用热重分析、自燃温度测试和元素分析,结合先进的热力学模型,对台湾中部不同季节采集的SRF样品进行了研究。秋冬两季样品灰分含量最低(12.46%),表观活化能最低(Ea, 120.3 kJ/mol),水分含量最高(29.68%),热危害最大。水分含量的升高促进了干燥过程中微生物的活性和热量的积累,延缓了热量的消散,从而增加了自加热的可能性。相比之下,夏季样品虽然没有最低的表观活化能,但可燃物,碳和氧含量升高,热值较高,这表明仍然需要仔细管理以防止自热。这些结果量化了SRF热稳定性的季节变化,为气候对燃烧风险的影响提供了新的见解。研究结果为SRF在能量转换过程中的安全储存、运输和利用提供了科学证据和实践指导,突出了该研究对理解不同环境条件下SRF安全性的独特贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of equipment parameters and vent area on the flameless venting behavior of hydrogen-air mixture 设备参数和排气面积对氢气-空气混合气无焰排气行为的影响
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105840
Guojie Zheng , Jiafeng Cheng , Yiju Song , Jianjun Xu , Wei Gao
Flameless venting technology serves as a critical approach for reducing combustible gas explosions, yet the flame control mechanisms and pressure dynamics during the venting process remain insufficiently understood. This study systematically investigates, through experimental methods, the impact of structural parameters of flame quenching units and flameless equipment, as well as the vent diameter of the explosion chamber, on hydrogen-air mixture flameless venting behavior. Experimental results demonstrate that a crimped ribbon with a thickness of 20 mm and wave height of 0.25 mm achieves complete flame quenching, whereas a 30 PPI metal foam requires an 80 mm thickness to attain comparable effectiveness. Furthermore, the installation of flameless venting equipment induces significant pressure fluctuations, primarily attributed to the enhancement of combustion dynamics through pressure wave reflection. Increasing the cylindrical diameter and length of the equipment allows the maximum pressure reduction to approach ordinary venting levels while substantially mitigating pressure oscillation amplitudes. Based on experimental data, modifications to the NFPA 68 and EN 14994 standards are proposed, with prediction errors of the revised models constrained within 5.43 % and 21.46 %, respectively. This study provides essential guidance for the optimized design of flameless venting equipment.
无焰通风技术是减少可燃性气体爆炸的重要途径,但其在通风过程中的火焰控制机理和压力动态仍未得到充分的了解。本研究通过实验方法系统研究了灭焰装置和无焰设备的结构参数以及爆炸室的通风口直径对氢气-空气混合气无焰排气行为的影响。实验结果表明,厚度为20 mm,波高为0.25 mm的卷曲带可以完全熄灭火焰,而30 PPI的金属泡沫需要80 mm的厚度才能达到相同的效果。此外,安装无焰通风设备会引起显著的压力波动,这主要是由于压力波反射增强了燃烧动力学。增加设备的圆柱形直径和长度可以使最大压力降低到接近普通排气水平,同时大大减轻压力振荡幅度。根据实验数据,提出了对NFPA 68和EN 14994标准的修正,修正模型的预测误差分别限制在5.43%和21.46%以内。该研究为无焰通风设备的优化设计提供了重要的指导。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries
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