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Quantitative risk assessment of leakage accident of crude oil storage tank based on fuzzy Bayesian network and improved AHP 基于模糊贝叶斯网络和改进型 AHP 的原油储罐泄漏事故定量风险评估
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105341
Sheng Qi , Jian Shuai , Lei Shi , Yuntao Li , Liguo Zhou

Leakage accidents of crude oil storage tanks (LACOST) occasionally occur during the production and storage processes of the petroleum and chemical industry, significantly impacting lives, the environment, and private property. To enhance the risk assessment of LACOST, our study sought to construct a fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) through expert evaluation based on an improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Subsequently, the societal risk of LACOST was analyzed in conjunction with the surrounding population density. Applying the proposed method to a crude oil storage depot in China revealed that incorporating the improved AHP significantly enhances the FBN's risk assessment capability, leading to more accurate predictions of LACOST likelihood. Furthermore, the importance of basic events was assessed, thereby effectively and reliably identifying critical events of LACOST. The rationality of the layout of buildings and population density in the oil depot was assessed through societal risk analysis. Collectively, our findings demonstrated that the proposed method can effectively identify changes in both LACOST probabilities and consequences, enabling decision-makers to optimize risk management strategies and achieve efficient resource allocation.

原油储罐泄漏事故(LACOST)偶尔会在石油和化工行业的生产和储存过程中发生,对生命、环境和私人财产造成重大影响。为了加强对 LACOST 的风险评估,我们的研究试图通过基于改进的层次分析法(AHP)的专家评估来构建一个模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN)。随后,结合周边人口密度分析了 LACOST 的社会风险。将所提出的方法应用于中国的一个原油储藏库后发现,改进的 AHP 能显著提高 FBN 的风险评估能力,从而更准确地预测 LACOST 的可能性。此外,还对基本事件的重要性进行了评估,从而有效可靠地识别了 LACOST 的关键事件。通过社会风险分析,评估了油库建筑布局和人口密度的合理性。总之,我们的研究结果表明,所提出的方法能够有效识别 LACOST 概率和后果的变化,使决策者能够优化风险管理策略,实现有效的资源分配。
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引用次数: 0
Fuzzy Bayesian network analysis for quantifying risk reduction rate of hierarchy of controls 用于量化控制层次风险降低率的模糊贝叶斯网络分析
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105350
Mi-Jeong Lee , Sejong Bae , Jung Hwang Shin , Jong Bae Baek

In industries dealing with chemical substances, accidents can pose threats not only the workplace but also to neighboring communities. Therefore, it is crucial to assess and manage these risks. In South Korea, conducting risk assessments is mandatory as a preventive measure to avert accidents. However, determining the acceptability of risk levels and estimating the effectiveness of risk-reducing measures can be challenging during these assessments, despite prioritizing existing measures. This study focuses on evaluating the risk reduction rate of the Hierarchy of Controls. To address the challenges associated with estimating the risk reduction rate, especially in the face of unpredictability and uncertainties, we utilized the Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN). FBN combines Fuzzy set theory with the Bayesian Network, providing a more reliable approach to risk assessment. Specifically, our study examines quantifying the risk reduction rate of Controls concerning fire and explosion risks, considering the severity of potential accidents. The findings from this research have the potential to enhance the efficiency of decision-making processes in risk assessments, contributing to improved safety measures.

在处理化学物质的行业中,事故不仅会对工作场所造成威胁,还会对周边社区造成威胁。因此,评估和管理这些风险至关重要。在韩国,进行风险评估是避免事故发生的强制性预防措施。然而,在这些评估过程中,尽管优先考虑了现有措施,但确定风险水平的可接受性和估算降低风险措施的有效性仍具有挑战性。本研究的重点是评估控制层次的风险降低率。为了应对与评估风险降低率相关的挑战,尤其是在不可预测和不确定的情况下,我们采用了模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN)。FBN 将模糊集理论与贝叶斯网络相结合,为风险评估提供了一种更可靠的方法。具体而言,考虑到潜在事故的严重性,我们的研究对有关火灾和爆炸风险的控制措施的风险降低率进行了量化。这项研究的结果有可能提高风险评估决策过程的效率,有助于改进安全措施。
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引用次数: 0
Single and multiphase flow leak detection in onshore/offshore pipelines and subsurface sequestration sites: An overview 陆上/海上管道和地下封存场所的单相流和多相流泄漏检测:概述
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105327
Mohammad Azizur Rahman , Abinash Barooah , Muhammad Saad Khan , Rashid Hassan , Ibrahim Hassan , Ahmad K. Sleiti , Matthew Hamilton , Sina Rezaei Gomari

Leaks may occur in existing pipelines, even when designed with quality construction and appropriate regulations. The economic impact of oil spills and natural gas dispersion from leaks can be huge. Failure to detect pipeline leaks promptly will have an adverse impact on life, the economy, the environment, and corporate reputation. Therefore, early detection of leaks, their location, and their size with high sensitivity and reliability are important for efficient hydrocarbon transportation through a pipeline, both in onshore and offshore applications. Although several studies have been conducted on leak detection using various techniques, recent literature that comprehensively investigates and summarizes the different multiphase leak detection techniques could not be found. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the different leak detection techniques in pipelines, wellbores, and subsurface sequestration wells. This is done by studying the different multiphase flow leak detection techniques using various Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Mechanistic, Machine Learning models, and digital twin techniques in the pipeline as well as in sub-surface sequestration sites. A comprehensive investigation revealed that a few studies have been conducted related to integrated multiphase flow leak experiments, computational fluid dynamics, mechanistic models, and implementing extended real-time transient monitoring using machine learning. This type of systematic investigation is deemed to be more useful for field applications. Furthermore, a new set of recommendations is provided in the last section which shows how experimental, mechanistic, and CFD simulation data can be used to drive a statistical approach based on modern deep learning and digital twin techniques. This allows for the precise understanding of the leak events such as size, location, and orientation of the leak, without sending a remotely operated underwater vehicle or aircraft to scan the whole pipeline and ocean.

现有管道可能会发生泄漏,即使在设计时采用了高质量的结构和适当的法规。石油泄漏和天然气泄漏造成的经济影响可能是巨大的。如果不能及时发现管道泄漏,将会对生命、经济、环境和企业声誉造成不利影响。因此,在陆上和海上应用中,高灵敏度和高可靠性的泄漏、泄漏位置和泄漏大小的早期检测对于通过管道高效运输碳氢化合物非常重要。虽然已有多项关于使用各种技术进行泄漏检测的研究,但近期还未找到全面研究和总结不同多相泄漏检测技术的文献。因此,本文全面综述了管道、井筒和地下封隔井中的不同泄漏检测技术。本文通过使用各种计算流体动力学 (CFD)、机理、机器学习模型和数字孪生技术,对管道和地下封存场地中的不同多相流泄漏检测技术进行了研究。综合调查显示,在综合多相流泄漏实验、计算流体动力学、力学模型以及利用机器学习实施扩展的实时瞬态监测方面,已经开展了一些研究。这类系统性调查被认为更有助于现场应用。此外,最后一节还提出了一套新的建议,说明如何利用实验、力学和 CFD 模拟数据来驱动基于现代深度学习和数字孪生技术的统计方法。这样就可以精确了解泄漏事件,如泄漏的大小、位置和方向,而无需派出遥控水下航行器或飞机对整个管道和海洋进行扫描。
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引用次数: 0
Burning behavior and fire hazards of petroleum liquid combustible spills 石油液体可燃泄漏物的燃烧行为和火灾危险
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105346
Katsuhiro Okamoto, Hiroki Yamasaki, Iori Matsuoka, Toshikazu Ichikawa, Hironori Matsuoka, Yoshiharu Saeki, Masakatsu Honma

In July 2019, an arson using motor gasoline occurred in Kyoto. After the incident, the Fire Services Law in Japan was revised to regulate the sale of motor gasoline in portable cans to prevent similar incidents. However, other petroleum combustible liquids, such as white gasoline and lighter oil, remain easily accessible. Hence, the burning behavior when petroleum combustible liquids and motor gasoline are spilled should be elucidated. Although the burning behavior of spilled motor gasoline on a floor has been studied, the burning behavior of other petroleum combustible liquids has not yet been reported. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the burning behavior of eight types of petroleum combustible liquids, including motor gasoline. Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry analyses were performed to determine the sample compositions. The flashpoints were estimated from the measured saturated vapor pressures. A circular bank with a diameter of 1.6 m was created on a calcium silicate floor, and 4 L sample liquid was spilled inside the bank. From the results of the burning experiments, the flame temperature, surrounding heat flux, flame height, and burning duration of the petroleum combustible liquids were determined. Additionally, we attempted to predict the potential burn injuries to the human body around the flame based on the flux data. The results of this study can be applied to the fire risk assessment caused by petroleum combustible liquids and help predict burn injuries to victims.

2019 年 7 月,京都发生了一起使用车用汽油纵火的事件。事件发生后,日本修订了《消防法》,对便携式罐装车用汽油的销售进行了规范,以防止类似事件的发生。然而,白汽油和打火机油等其他石油可燃液体仍然很容易获得。因此,应阐明石油可燃液体和车用汽油泄漏时的燃烧行为。虽然已经对泄漏在地板上的车用汽油的燃烧行为进行了研究,但其他石油可燃液体的燃烧行为尚未见报道。因此,本研究旨在调查包括车用汽油在内的八种石油可燃液体的燃烧行为。通过气相色谱-质谱分析法确定了样品成分。根据测得的饱和蒸汽压估算闪点。在硅酸钙地板上制作了一个直径为 1.6 米的圆形样品池,在样品池内洒入 4 升样品液。根据燃烧实验的结果,确定了石油可燃液体的火焰温度、周围热通量、火焰高度和燃烧持续时间。此外,我们还尝试根据通量数据预测火焰周围可能对人体造成的烧伤。本研究的结果可用于石油可燃液体引起的火灾风险评估,并有助于预测对受害者造成的烧伤。
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引用次数: 0
Flammability limits of methanol/methacrolein mixed vapor under elevated temperatures and pressures 甲醇/甲基丙烯醛混合蒸气在高温高压下的可燃性极限
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105342
Xiaoliang Zhang, Xiao Feng, Guangyuan Tao, Ronghan Guo, Jiaqiang Xu

The one-step oxidative esterification of methanol and methacrolein to yield methyl methacrylate (MMA) at elevated temperatures and pressures is a crucial chemical procedure for producing MMA. However, the conditions under which fire and explosions may occur during this procedure must be determined. This study models gas mixing to predict concentration distribution. Simulation results indicate stability with increasing pressure but wider gradients with higher temperature. Experimental studies on the flammable limits of methanol and methanol/methacrolein vapor mixtures under high temperatures and pressures show that the initial pressure has a significant impact on expanding the explosive limit of flammable vapor, whereas temperature has a relatively minor effect. The combustible limit of the mixed vapor is predicted using the heat balance approach, and a comparison with experimental data shows that the anticipated and real values coincide well.

甲醇和甲基丙烯醛在高温高压下一步氧化酯化生成甲基丙烯酸甲酯 (MMA),是生产 MMA 的关键化学步骤。然而,必须确定在此过程中可能发生火灾和爆炸的条件。本研究通过模拟气体混合来预测浓度分布。模拟结果表明,随着压力的增加,浓度会保持稳定,但温度越高,浓度梯度越大。对甲醇和甲醇/甲基丙烯醛蒸汽混合物在高温高压下的可燃极限进行的实验研究表明,初始压力对扩大可燃蒸汽的爆炸极限有很大影响,而温度的影响相对较小。使用热平衡方法预测了混合蒸汽的可燃极限,与实验数据的比较表明,预期值和实际值非常吻合。
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引用次数: 0
Closed-form P-I diagram based on flextural and shear failure for ptotective wall 基于ftxtural和剪切失效的ptotective墙体闭式P-I图
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105347
Jooyoung Bong , Young Beom Kwon , Daniel Chukwunonso Nwagbala , Jong Yil Park

Protective walls are crucial structures in mitigating damage from explosions, particularly in environments such as gas refueling stations. However, evaluating their performance typically involves intricate numerical analyses to derive Pressure-Impulse (P–I) diagrams. This paper presents a novel closed-form solution for deriving P–I diagrams specifically tailored for protective walls, considering flexural and shear resistance. By assuming perfect plastic resistance, the proposed solution offers an efficient alternative to numerical analysis, particularly beneficial in preliminary design stages. The validity of the closed-form solution is demonstrated through comparisons with numerically derived P–I diagrams, showing promising results across various design parameters. This approach enhances the accessibility and ease of designing protective walls for blast resistance, contributing to improved safety measures in critical infrastructure.

防护墙是减轻爆炸破坏的关键结构,尤其是在天然气加气站等环境中。然而,评估其性能通常需要进行复杂的数值分析,以得出压力-冲击(P-I)图。本文提出了一种新颖的闭式求解方法,可在考虑抗弯和抗剪性能的情况下推导出专门针对防护墙的 P-I 图。通过假定完美的塑性阻力,所提出的解决方案为数值分析提供了一种有效的替代方法,尤其适用于初步设计阶段。通过与数值推导出的 P-I 图进行比较,证明了闭合形式解决方案的有效性,并显示了各种设计参数的良好结果。这种方法提高了抗爆防护墙设计的可及性和简易性,有助于改进关键基础设施的安全措施。
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引用次数: 0
Utilizing magnetic nanoparticles embedded into polyvinyl alcohol and sodium alginate for the absorption of arsenic 利用嵌入聚乙烯醇和海藻酸钠的磁性纳米粒子吸收砷
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105348
Chung-Fu Huang , An-Chi Huang , Wei-Ting Chen , Cheng-Yong Wu , Terng-Jou Wan

Arsenic is an extremely toxic metalloid. The majority of arsenic water pollution originates from industrial activities such as mining, smelting, and utilization of arsenic compounds in glass, pigment, semiconductor, and other industries. Arsenic-containing wastewater poses a threat to groundwater, freshwater, seawater, and soil. Bioaccumulation of arsenic as a result of accidental ingestion may have a harmful effect on the skin and cardiovascular, respiratory, and nervous systems, thereby posing a major health risk. Chemical coagulation, membrane filtration, and adsorption can be used to treat arsenic-containing wastewater. However, chemical coagulation produces a large amount of waste sludge, which is harmful and incurs high processing costs. Membrane filtration is difficult to adopt because of its high operation and maintenance costs. Adsorption is an inexpensive, easy-to-use, sludge-free water treatment method that enables adsorbent recycling. These characteristics make adsorption an economically feasible technique for water treatment. Magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) are small particles with a high surface area to volume ratio. Their strong magnetic properties enable them to absorb specific water pollutants. MNPs are currently used as water treatment adsorbents. However, they have several drawbacks, including low acid and alkali buffer capacity and water oxidation. In this study, MNPs immobilized with polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and sodium alginate (SA) were used to enhance the efficacy of wastewater treatment with magnetic materials. These modified MNPs exhibited magnetic characteristics and improved acid resistance. When 100 g/L PVA/SA-MNPs (pH 1–6) were stirred at 120 rpm for 30 min, the resulting iron concentration of the water was 16 mg/L. By contrast, the MNPs released iron in levels ranging from 18 to 4045 mg/L. The PVA/SA–MNPs efficiently adsorbed arsenic in the pH range 3–6, with a high removal efficiency of 76%–82%. At pH 5, the average adsorption capacity was 382 ± 27 μg/g. To recover the MNPs, they were rinsed with deionized water and immersed in acid three times, after which their adsorption capacity was 300 μg/g or higher. By contrast, the PVA/SA-MNPs could be recovered through spontaneous sedimentation, eliminating the need for a magnetic field and simplifying the collection process. In addition, iron dissolution in acidic solutions was minimized for the PVA/SA-MNPs, contributing to environmental protection.

砷是一种毒性极强的类金属。砷水污染大多源自工业活动,如采矿、冶炼以及玻璃、颜料、半导体和其他行业对砷化合物的利用。含砷废水对地下水、淡水、海水和土壤构成威胁。意外摄入砷造成的生物累积可能会对皮肤、心血管、呼吸和神经系统产生有害影响,从而对健康构成重大威胁。化学混凝、膜过滤和吸附可用于处理含砷废水。但是,化学混凝会产生大量废渣,对人体有害,而且处理成本高。膜过滤因其运行和维护成本高而难以采用。吸附是一种成本低廉、易于使用、无污泥的水处理方法,而且可以实现吸附剂的循环利用。这些特点使吸附成为一种经济可行的水处理技术。磁性纳米颗粒(MNPs)是一种具有高表面积与体积比的小颗粒。它们具有很强的磁性,能够吸附特定的水污染物。目前,MNPs 被用作水处理吸附剂。然而,它们也有一些缺点,包括酸碱缓冲能力低和水氧化。在本研究中,用聚乙烯醇(PVA)和海藻酸钠(SA)固定的 MNPs 被用来提高磁性材料处理废水的功效。这些改性的 MNPs 具有磁性特征,并提高了耐酸性。当 100 g/L PVA/SA-MNPs(pH 值为 1-6)在 120 rpm 转速下搅拌 30 分钟时,水中的铁浓度为 16 mg/L。相比之下,MNPs 释放出的铁含量为 18 至 4045 毫克/升。在 pH 值为 3-6 的范围内,PVA/SA-MNPs 能有效吸附砷,去除率高达 76%-82%。在 pH 值为 5 时,平均吸附容量为 382 ± 27 μg/g。为了回收 MNPs,需要用去离子水冲洗并在酸中浸泡三次,之后其吸附容量可达 300 μg/g 或更高。相比之下,PVA/SA-MNPs 可通过自发沉降回收,无需磁场,简化了收集过程。此外,PVA/SA-MNPs 在酸性溶液中的铁溶解度最小,有助于环境保护。
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引用次数: 0
Fragility assessment for process pipelines in flood events through physically-based hazard response analysis 通过基于物理的危害响应分析,评估洪水事件中工艺管道的脆弱性
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105349
Hong Hu , Meng Lan , Rongshui Qin , Jiping Zhu

Natech events triggered by floods have occurred frequently, resulting in physical damage to process equipment and subsequent releases of hazardous substances, threatening the operational safety of the process industry. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct flood fragility assessments on typical process equipment, such as storage tanks and process pipelines. Compared to storage tank, there are relatively few flood risk analysis methods applicable to process pipelines, and there is a lack of dedicated fragility models to quantify the probability of pipeline damage in flood hazard scenarios. Thus, this paper develops a process pipeline fragility model to support the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of flood-induced Natech events more comprehensively. This model simultaneously considers the structural physical damage caused by internal pressure and external load in the pipeline and establishes the limit state equation (LSE) corresponding to the failure mode. On this basis, parametric fragility functions are trained using Monte Carlo simulations and logistic regression. A pipeline case is used to test the proposed fragility functions, and the results show that the fitted parameterized fragility model can sensitively capture changes in the failure probability curve caused by hazard intensity and pipeline characteristics changes. The proposed pipeline fragility model is applied to a composite area of pipelines and storage tanks, accurately assessing the failure probability of different types of pipelines in flood scenarios.

由洪水引发的 Natech 事件经常发生,造成工艺设备的物理损坏和随后的有害物质释放,威胁着工艺行业的运行安全。因此,有必要对储罐和工艺管道等典型工艺设备进行洪水脆性评估。与储罐相比,适用于工艺管道的洪水风险分析方法相对较少,也缺乏专门的脆性模型来量化管道在洪水灾害情况下的损坏概率。因此,本文开发了一种工艺管道脆性模型,以更全面地支持洪水引发的 Natech 事件的定量风险评估 (QRA)。该模型同时考虑了管道内部压力和外部载荷造成的结构物理破坏,并建立了与破坏模式相对应的极限状态方程(LSE)。在此基础上,利用蒙特卡罗模拟和逻辑回归训练参数脆性函数。结果表明,拟合的参数化脆性模型能够灵敏地捕捉危害强度和管道特性变化引起的失效概率曲线的变化。提出的管道脆性模型适用于管道和储罐的复合区域,可准确评估洪水情景下不同类型管道的失效概率。
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引用次数: 0
Biomass inertization to increase minimum ignition temperature 生物质惰化以提高最低点火温度
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105345
Blanca Castells , Isabel Amez , Nieves Fernandez-Anez , David León , Alberto Tascón

In the past years, the use of biomass has significantly increased and, therefore, so has the number of accidents related to its storage, transport, and use. To prevent these accidents, it is essential to properly know their flammability and explosion characteristics so their behaviour can be addressed as a first stop for preventing accidents. The present work studies the inertization with solid inerts of biomass layers and clouds (biomass powder suspended in air) as a possible solution to reduce their ignition tendency. To do so, two biomass samples were studied: wood pellets and dried sewage sludge; mixed with two different inert materials: recycled glass and sodium bicarbonate. In particular, the inert materials were mixed with biomass at three different concentrations (30%, 50% and 70%) and the ignition of the mixtures was studied, determining the minimum ignition temperature of layer and cloud (MITL and MITC) for each mixture, and detecting the needed concentration for avoiding the ignition. Additionally, samples were tested using TGA and DSC techniques to analyse their thermal behaviour and to determine the influence that the inert material has in the energetic power of the biofuel.

Different behaviours were observed depending on the different inert materials, showing that not only the amount of inert added is important but also its physico-chemical properties. If the results for a layer and a cloud are compared, it was noticed that inertization effect differs between biomass and test. Regarding TGA and DSC results, it was concluded that smaller percentages of inert material should be considered, as they substantially modify the energetic value.

在过去几年中,生物质的使用量大幅增加,因此,与生物质的储存、运输和使用有关的事故数量也随之增加。为了防止这些事故的发生,必须正确了解它们的易燃性和爆炸特性,以便将它们的行为作为防止事故发生的第一站。本研究以固体惰性物质对生物质层和生物质云(悬浮在空气中的生物质粉末)进行惰性化处理,作为降低其点燃倾向的一种可能解决方案。为此,研究了两种生物质样品:木质颗粒和干燥的污水污泥;与两种不同的惰性材料混合:回收玻璃和碳酸氢钠。特别是,惰性材料以三种不同的浓度(30%、50% 和 70%)与生物质混合,并研究了混合物的点燃情况,确定了每种混合物的层和云的最低点燃温度(MITL 和 MITC),并检测了避免点燃所需的浓度。此外,还使用 TGA 和 DSC 技术对样品进行了测试,以分析其热行为,并确定惰性材料对生物燃料能量的影响。如果将层和云的结果进行比较,就会发现生物质和试验的惰性效应是不同的。关于 TGA 和 DSC 结果,结论是应考虑较小比例的惰性材料,因为它们会大大改变能量值。
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引用次数: 0
An integrated approach to assess safety and security risks in chemical process industries 评估化学加工工业安全和安保风险的综合方法
IF 3.5 3区 工程技术 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105344
Ahmad Soltanzadeh , Esmaeil Zarei , Mohsen Mahdinia , Mohsen Sadeghi-Yarandi

Chemical process industries (CPIs) face significant safety and security risks that are closely intertwined. However, previous research has predominantly examined these risks separately, lacking a comprehensive scientific approach to simultaneously analyze safety and security in critical systems. This research aims to propose an integrated approach to assess safety and security risks in CPIs. To achieve this, a taxonomy of safety and security risk factors consisting of four dimensions (i.e., occurrence probability, severity, vulnerability, and securing) and their respective twenty contributing factors has been developed. The validity and reliability of the taxonomy were assessed using the Delphi method, involving Subject Matter Experts (N = 25), and through statistical analysis. Subsequently, the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) was employed to determine the importance level of each contributing factor and dimension, thereby enabling the integration of safety and security risk levels. The proposed approach was validated through reality checks, and independent peer review. The findings of this study highlight the dimensions and contributing factors that have the most significant impact on the integrated safety and security risk level. Moreover, the approach provides insights into effectively assigning countermeasures to establish a safe and resilient operation in CPIs. By adopting this integrated assessment approach, CPIs can gain a deeper understanding of the interplay between safety and security risks, allowing for more informed decision-making and the implementation of targeted risk mitigation strategies.

化工流程工业(CPIs)面临着安全与安保密切相关的重大风险。然而,以往的研究主要是分别研究这些风险,缺乏同时分析关键系统安全和安保的综合科学方法。本研究旨在提出一种综合方法来评估 CPI 的安全和安保风险。为此,研究人员制定了安全和安保风险因素分类法,包括四个维度(即发生概率、严重性、脆弱性和安全性)及其各自的 20 个促成因素。采用德尔菲法对分类法的有效性和可靠性进行了评估,参与评估的有主题专家(N = 25),并进行了统计分析。随后,采用了模糊分析层次法(FAHP)来确定每个促成因素和维度的重要程度,从而实现了安全和安保风险等级的整合。通过现实检查和独立同行评审,对所提出的方法进行了验证。研究结果突出了对综合安全和安保风险水平影响最大的维度和促成因素。此外,该方法还为有效分配应对措施提供了见解,以便在 CPI 中建立安全而有弹性的运行。通过采用这种综合评估方法,CPI 可以更深入地了解安全和安保风险之间的相互作用,从而做出更明智的决策,并实施有针对性的风险缓解战略。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries
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