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A dynamic system reliability analysis model on safety instrumented systems 安全仪表系统的动态系统可靠性分析模型
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105455
Mohammad Ali Aghazadeh , Esmaeil Zarei , Abolfazl Ghahramani , He Li
This paper introduces a novel hybrid dynamic model for complex systems reliability assessment. The model synergizes expert knowledge elicitation and an enhanced Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) with Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) modeling, aiming to surmount the limitations such as uncertainty and static modeling inherent in traditional methods. The proposed model is deployed on a Safety Instrumented System (SIS) designed to prevent runaway reactions within a Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR), considering factors such as system degradation, human interventions, and proof testing on system reliability. The analysis pinpointed the logic solver subsystem as the principal vulnerability within the assessed SIS, leading to targeted recommendations to bolster system reliability. The outcomes offer insights for a wide range of safety-critical systems aiming to augment the safety and efficacy of SISs, thereby advancing safety and resilience management across various complex engineering systems, particularly in contexts where field data is scant.
本文介绍了一种用于复杂系统可靠性评估的新型混合动态模型。该模型将专家知识征询和增强型 Dempster-Shafer 理论(DST)与动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)建模相结合,旨在克服传统方法固有的不确定性和静态建模等局限性。考虑到系统退化、人为干预和系统可靠性验证测试等因素,提出的模型被部署在一个安全仪表系统(SIS)上,该系统旨在防止连续搅拌槽反应器(CSTR)内的失控反应。分析指出,逻辑解算子系统是所评估的 SIS 系统中的主要薄弱环节,从而为提高系统可靠性提出了有针对性的建议。分析结果为各种安全关键型系统提供了启示,旨在增强 SIS 的安全性和有效性,从而推进各种复杂工程系统的安全和弹性管理,尤其是在现场数据稀缺的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Natural gas leakage detection from offshore platform by OGI camera and unsupervised deep learning 利用 OGI 摄像机和无监督深度学习检测海上平台的天然气泄漏
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105449
Junjie Li , Xiaoyuan Qian , Jihao Shi , Zonghao Xie , Yuanjiang Chang , Guoming Chen
Natural gas leak from offshore platform poses a potential to cause explosion disaster and bring significant causalities and economic losses. Existing deep learning-based leak detection approaches are limited by the requirement of a large number of labeled leak datasets, and also has worse performance in the complex and changeable marine environment. This study proposes a detection approach of natural gas leakage from offshore platform by integrating optical gas imaging (OGI) camera and unsupervised deep probability learning. In this approach, unsupervised deep learning is applied to learn the changeable infrared features of offshore platform, and variational Bayesian inference is integrated to provide the larger epistemic uncertainty contour corresponding to the infrared natural gas plume. An epistemic uncertainty-based detection score is proposed as the detection criterion to improve the accuracy of natural gas plume detection and localization. An OGI imaging experiment of natural gas leak from offshore platform is conducted to construct the benchmark dataset. With such datasets, two pre-defined parameters, namely Monte Carlo sampling number m = 100 and dropout probability p=0.1 are determined to guarantee the detection accuracy and efficiency. Comparison between the proposed approach and prevalent unsupervised deep learning approach is also conducted. The results demonstrate that our proposed approach has the higher detection accuracy with AUC = 0.9753, as well as the real-time capability with inference time of 4s/frame. Overall, our proposed approach provides a more accurate and generalized approach of natural gas detection for safety monitoring and detection management of offshore platforms.
海上平台的天然气泄漏有可能引发爆炸灾难,造成重大人员伤亡和经济损失。现有的基于深度学习的泄漏检测方法受限于大量标记泄漏数据集的要求,而且在复杂多变的海洋环境中性能较差。本研究提出了一种结合光学气体成像(OGI)相机和无监督深度概率学习的海上平台天然气泄漏检测方法。在该方法中,应用无监督深度学习来学习海上平台多变的红外特征,并结合变异贝叶斯推理来提供与红外天然气羽流相对应的较大的认识不确定性等值线。提出了基于认识不确定性的检测评分作为检测标准,以提高天然气羽流检测和定位的准确性。为构建基准数据集,进行了海上平台天然气泄漏的 OGI 成像实验。通过这些数据集,确定了两个预定义参数,即蒙特卡罗采样数 m = 100 和丢弃概率 p=0.1,以保证检测精度和效率。此外,还对所提出的方法和流行的无监督深度学习方法进行了比较。结果表明,我们提出的方法具有更高的检测精度(AUC = 0.9753),以及实时性(推理时间为 4 秒/帧)。总之,我们提出的方法为海上平台的安全监控和检测管理提供了一种更准确、更通用的天然气检测方法。
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引用次数: 0
Incident investigation of hydrogen explosion and fire in a residue desulfurization process 残渣脱硫过程中氢气爆炸和火灾事故调查
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105458
Ting-Chia Kao , Yuan-Chen Lin , Hui-Ning Yang , Hsiao-Yun Tsai , Jenq-Renn Chen
A large hydrogen explosion and fire occurred on October 27, 2022 in a residue desulfurization (RDS) process in a refinery in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. RDS is an important process that use hydrogen to convert the sulfur in the fuel into hydrogen sulfide for producing low sulfur fuel. The incident occurred during pressurization of the RDS reactors and downstream coolers by hydrogen. The incident led to significant damages to the downstream coolers and some part of the RDS reactors. Detailed incident investigation was carried out. A reactor effluent air cooler (REAC) in the downstream of RDS reactors was found to be ruptured in the rectangular header box. With security videos, process DCS data, leak and dispersion modelling, and actual damage on the process, it is possible to reproduce the leak rate, size of the initial fireball and damages done to the process. It is also found that the hydrogen leak was accompanied by prompt ignition which is commonly encountered in high-pressure hydrogen services. Recommendations are made to prevent and mitigate any future incident from the RDS process.
2022 年 10 月 27 日,台湾高雄市一家炼油厂的残留物脱硫 (RDS) 过程发生大规模氢气爆炸和火灾。残渣脱硫是利用氢气将燃料中的硫转化为硫化氢以生产低硫燃料的重要工艺。事故发生在用氢气对 RDS 反应器和下游冷却器加压的过程中。事故导致下游冷却器和 RDS 反应器的某些部分严重受损。对事故进行了详细调查。发现 RDS 反应堆下游的一个反应堆出水空气冷却器(REAC)在矩形集箱中破裂。通过安全视频、工艺 DCS 数据、泄漏和扩散模型以及工艺上的实际损坏,可以再现泄漏率、初始火球大小以及对工艺造成的损坏。研究还发现,氢气泄漏伴随着高压氢气服务中常见的迅速点火现象。为防止和减轻今后在 RDS 过程中发生任何事故提出了建议。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of ammonia-water fog formation on ammonia dispersion from a liquid spill 氨水雾的形成对液体溢出氨扩散的影响
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105446
Hans Langva Skarsvåg, Eirik Holm Fyhn, Ailo Aasen
Ammonia is expected to play an important role in the green transition, both as a hydrogen carrier and a zero-emission fuel. The use of refrigerated ammonia is attractive due to its relatively high volumetric energy density and increased safety compared to pressurized solutions. Ammonia is highly toxic, and with new applications and increased global demand come stricter requirements for safe handling. Cold gaseous ammonia following a spill of refrigerated ammonia will in contact with humid air cause fog formation. In an environment rich in ammonia, these droplets will due to ammonia’s strong hygroscopicity consist of considerable amounts of liquid ammonia as well as water. Fog formation affects the ammonia-air density and thus influences the dispersion dynamics, with a potentially significant impact on hazardous zones. In this work, we present a CFD model including an ammonia-water fog formation model based on accurate thermodynamics. This includes modeling the vapor–liquid equilibrium and accounting for the exothermic mixing of ammonia and water. We apply this CFD model to relevant cases and demonstrate the significant impact of the fog. We analyze the effect of varying relative humidity, fog visibility, influence of wind, and pool evaporation rate. Finally, we model the Red Squirrel test 1F and show how the fog formation could have influenced the dispersion behavior.
氨作为氢载体和零排放燃料,有望在绿色转型中发挥重要作用。与加压解决方案相比,冷冻氨的体积能量密度相对较高,安全性更高,因此具有吸引力。氨具有剧毒,随着新应用的出现和全球需求的增加,对安全处理的要求也越来越严格。冷冻氨泄漏后的冷气态氨与潮湿空气接触会形成雾。在富含氨的环境中,由于氨具有很强的吸湿性,这些液滴中会含有大量的液氨和水。雾的形成会影响氨气密度,从而影响扩散动力学,对危险区域可能产生重大影响。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种 CFD 模型,其中包括基于精确热力学的氨水雾形成模型。其中包括汽液平衡模型和氨水混合放热模型。我们将该 CFD 模型应用于相关案例,并证明了雾的重大影响。我们分析了不同相对湿度、雾能见度、风力影响和水池蒸发率的影响。最后,我们建立了红松鼠试验 1F 的模型,并展示了雾的形成如何影响扩散行为。
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引用次数: 0
A novel methodology for dynamic vulnerability assessment of storage tank exposed to technological hazards 对遭受技术危害的储罐进行动态脆弱性评估的新方法
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105457
Tao Zeng , Lijun Wei , Yingquan Duo , Chao Chen , Rujun Wang , Guoliang Yang , Sining Chen
Storage tanks are vulnerable to catastrophic technological hazards such as fires or explosions. Although many attempts have been made to assess the tank vulnerability exposed to a certain fire or explosion, little attention has been paid to the uncertainties of diverse accident scenarios and time-dependent damage effects. In this paper, a novel methodology is developed to dynamically estimate the vulnerability of chemical storage tank, while the static and dynamic factors related to tank vulnerability are studied in a unified framework. The uncertainties in the evolution of technological hazard are discretized and assessed using the dynamic event tree, in which the dynamic possibility of ignition and potential scenario transition are taken into account. Furthermore, a detailed study of the dynamic consequence and time-dependent damage behavior of physical effects is conducted, supporting a more accurate assessment of tank vulnerability. The case study demonstrates that the developed methodology could simulate the stochastic process of spatio-temporal evolution of technological hazards and enable a comprehensive analysis of damage patterns over time. Besides, the protection and mitigation effects of different safety barriers are evaluated and discussed, the results are valuable for reducing the risks of tank farms.
储油罐很容易受到火灾或爆炸等灾难性技术危害的影响。虽然人们已多次尝试评估储罐在特定火灾或爆炸情况下的脆弱性,但却很少关注不同事故情景的不确定性和随时间变化的损害效应。本文开发了一种新方法来动态估算化学品储罐的易损性,并在统一的框架内研究了与储罐易损性相关的静态和动态因素。利用动态事件树对技术危险演变过程中的不确定性进行了离散化和评估,其中考虑了点火的动态可能性和潜在的情景转换。此外,还对物理效应的动态后果和随时间变化的破坏行为进行了详细研究,为更准确地评估坦克脆弱性提供了支持。案例研究表明,所开发的方法可以模拟技术危险的时空随机演变过程,并能对随时间变化的损害模式进行全面分析。此外,还对不同安全屏障的保护和缓解效果进行了评估和讨论,其结果对降低油库风险具有重要价值。
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引用次数: 0
An ontological approach increasing the knowledge about equipment ageing including the effects of current transitions 采用本体论方法增加对设备老化的了解,包括当前过渡的影响
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105453
Giuseppa Ancione , Silvia Maria Ansaldi , Paolo Bragatto , Patrizia Agnello , Maria Francesca Milazzo
Ageing management of critical equipment is essential for major accident hazard prevention. In European Union, the Seveso Directive explicitly refers to equipment ageing and specific procedures and tools have been developed in some countries to verify the adequacy of ageing management plans. Ageing management requires up-to-date knowledge of damage mechanisms, failure rates, and inspection techniques. Although the energy transition is moving towards innovative and low-impact processes, the issue of equipment ageing remains a concern for the future due to several factors as many existing petroleum industries will be kept operating for years and green fuels will partially use existing plants. The use of digital technologies, such as inspection robots and pervasive sensors, is increasing in order to optimize maintenance costs and extend the useful lifetime of critical equipment. This poses challenges for stakeholders in the establishment, control bodies, and competent authorities, which need to effectively manage knowledge in the face of digital and energy transitions. Ontologies represent a fundamental methodology for organizing and integrating information throughout the equipment life cycle. These are beneficial for activities with high cognitive content such as incident analysis, risk assessment, maintenance management, and inspection planning. This work aims to strengthen an ontology for ageing management by making it able to incorporate emerging digital inspection technologies and damage mechanisms related to green fuels; finally, through the developed web-application, the ontology is available to establishment operators and auditors for the evaluation of the adequacy of ageing management.
关键设备的老化管理对于预防重大事故危害至关重要。在欧盟,Seveso 指令明确提到了设备老化问题,一些国家还制定了具体的程序和工具来验证老化管理计划的适当性。老化管理需要对损坏机制、故障率和检查技术有最新的了解。尽管能源转型正朝着创新和低影响工艺的方向发展,但设备老化问题仍是未来的一个关注点,这是由多种因素造成的,因为许多现有的石油工业将继续运行多年,而绿色燃料将部分使用现有的工厂。为了优化维护成本和延长关键设备的使用寿命,检测机器人和无处不在的传感器等数字技术的使用越来越多。这对企业、控制机构和主管当局的利益相关者提出了挑战,他们需要在数字化和能源转型过程中有效地管理知识。本体论是在设备生命周期内组织和整合信息的基本方法。这对事故分析、风险评估、维护管理和检查规划等认知含量较高的活动大有裨益。这项工作旨在加强老化管理本体论,使其能够纳入新兴的数字检查技术和与绿色燃料有关的损坏机制;最后,通过开发的网络应用程序,本体论可提供给机构运营商和审计人员,用于评估老化管理的适当性。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of porous non-metallic balls on detonation propagation in hydrogen–oxygen mixtures 多孔非金属球对氢氧混合物中引爆传播的影响
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105454
Weikang Liu , Xuxu Sun , Ao Peng , Xianfeng Chen
In this study, the influence of porous non-metallic balls on the dynamics of detonation propagation in hydrogen–oxygen mixtures is studied in stainless steel tubes with square cross-sections. The effect of the length and thickness of the balls is considered in detail. Four pressure transducers are used to record the detonation time-of-arrival, and the average velocity of detonation propagation is calculate. The smoked foil technique is performed to register the detonation cellular structures. The results indicate that increasing the filling length and thickness of the balls leads to a significant increase in velocity loss, critical pressure, and re-initiation distance during detonation propagation. Two propagation modes are observed near the critical pressure. In sub-critical mode, the detonation wave is attenuated and failed eventually, propagating to the end of the tube in the form of a low-speed deflagration wave. In super-critical mode, the detonation propagation can be promoted by inducing a vertical transverse wave generated by the detonation wave passing through a group of small balls. It is worth noting that the increase in filling thickness of the small balls leads to a greater velocity loss compared to the increase in filling length. However, an increase in the filling length will cause the detonation wave to undergo a longer and more sustained weakening process as it passes through the small balls, thereby resulting in a longer re-initiation distance and a lower average velocity over a short distance after re-initiation. By increasing the filling length of the small balls to 312 mm, the transition of the detonation wave from multi-head detonation to double-head detonation can be observed, and then successfully turns into stable detonation. However, when filling double-layer small balls, even in super-critical conditions, the attenuated detonation wave cannot achieve re-initiation over a short distance.
在本研究中,研究了多孔非金属球对氢氧混合物中爆炸传播动力学的影响。详细考虑了球的长度和厚度的影响。使用四个压力传感器记录起爆到达时间,并计算起爆传播的平均速度。采用熏箔技术记录起爆蜂窝结构。结果表明,增加爆破球的填充长度和厚度会导致爆破传播过程中的速度损失、临界压力和再起爆距离显著增加。在临界压力附近观察到两种传播模式。在亚临界模式下,起爆波被衰减并最终失效,以低速爆燃波的形式传播到管道末端。在超临界模式下,可通过诱导引爆波穿过一组小球产生的垂直横波来促进引爆传播。值得注意的是,与填充长度的增加相比,小球填充厚度的增加会导致更大的速度损失。然而,填充长度的增加会使爆轰波在通过小球时经历更长、更持久的减弱过程,从而导致再起爆距离更长,再起爆后短距离内的平均速度更低。将小球的装填长度增加到 312 毫米时,可以观察到起爆波从多头起爆过渡到双头起爆,然后成功转为稳定起爆。然而,当装填双层小球时,即使在超临界条件下,衰减的起爆波也无法在短距离内实现再起爆。
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引用次数: 0
Optimizing hazardous materials transportation network: A bi-level programming approach considering road blocking 优化危险品运输网络:考虑道路阻塞的双层方案编制方法
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105451
Yuanyuan Li , Jun Wu , Ruiping Yuan
Road transportation serves as the primary mode for hazardous materials (hazmat) transportation in China. However, the current academic literature lacks sufficient exploration of optimizing transportation networks through road-blocking strategies. This research proposed a bi-level programming model, where the government acts as the decision-maker in the upper-level programming, and the transportation enterprise operates at the lower level. Road-blocking strategies are employed by the government to mitigate transportation risks. We developed exact solution algorithms for the upper programming and employed genetic algorithms for the lower model separately. Finally, using a real road network in Beijing as a case study, we showcased the effectiveness of our approach. We computed government decision schemes and enterprise transportation routes for 13 scenarios, and conducted a further discussion and analysis on scenarios with road service levels of 83% and 80.9%. The method and results presented in our study can adeptly dissect the transportation of hazmat in city areas, offering insightful perspectives and robust support for devising more streamlined management strategies.
公路运输是中国危险品运输的主要方式。然而,目前的学术文献缺乏对通过道路阻断策略优化运输网络的充分探讨。本研究提出了一个双层规划模型,即政府作为上层规划的决策者,运输企业在下层运作。政府采用道路封锁策略来降低运输风险。我们为上层程序设计开发了精确求解算法,并为下层模型分别采用了遗传算法。最后,我们以北京的真实路网为案例,展示了我们方法的有效性。我们计算了 13 种情景下的政府决策方案和企业运输路线,并对道路服务水平为 83% 和 80.9% 的情景进行了进一步的讨论和分析。我们在研究中提出的方法和结果能够很好地剖析城市区域的危险品运输,为制定更合理的管理策略提供了深刻的视角和有力的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting critical flame quenching thickness using machine learning approach with ResNet and ANN 利用 ResNet 和 ANN 的机器学习方法预测临界焰淬厚度
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105448
Zhongheng Nie , Wei Gao , Haipeng Jiang , Jianxin Lu , Zhengkang Lu , Xinsheng Jiang
In the study of flame quenching, quenching thickness is one of the important parameters to determine the design of a flame arrester, and often determines the flame quenching performance of the arrester. In the study, residual network (ResNet) and artificial neural network (ANN) are used to predict the critical quench thickness of combustible gas in pipelines. The critical quench thickness is influenced by fuel concentration and density, pipeline size, inert gas type and concentration, porous media porosity, and thermal conductivity. The influence of different combinations of hyper-parameters on the prediction performance of the two models is explored. The results show that the prediction performance of both models reaches the best after hyper-parameter optimization. Compared with ANN, the ResNet model shows more stable and better prediction ability, and its optimal evaluation parameters are: MAE is 1.4679, MSE is 91.7431, R2 is 0.9216. The prediction errors of the two models on the same dataset are subjected to analysis, and the impact of the use of normalized data on the performance of the two models is compared. It is determined that the ResNet model demonstrated superior robustness and generalization ability in predicting the critical quenching thickness of combustible gases. The study is helpful for the safety protection of combustible gas and the safety design of pipeline arresters.
在火焰淬火研究中,淬火厚度是确定阻火器设计的重要参数之一,通常决定了阻火器的淬火性能。本研究采用残差网络(ResNet)和人工神经网络(ANN)预测管道中可燃气体的临界淬火厚度。临界淬火厚度受燃料浓度和密度、管道尺寸、惰性气体类型和浓度、多孔介质孔隙率和热导率的影响。研究探讨了不同超参数组合对两个模型预测性能的影响。结果表明,经过超参数优化后,两种模型的预测性能均达到最佳。与 ANN 相比,ResNet 模型显示出更稳定和更好的预测能力,其最优评价参数为MAE 为 1.4679,MSE 为 91.7431,R2 为 0.9216。分析了两个模型在同一数据集上的预测误差,比较了使用归一化数据对两个模型性能的影响。结果表明,ResNet 模型在预测可燃气体临界淬火厚度方面表现出更高的鲁棒性和泛化能力。该研究有助于可燃气体的安全保护和管道阻火器的安全设计。
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引用次数: 0
A rapid analysis method for regional population distribution safety based on societal risk assessment 基于社会风险评估的区域人口分布安全快速分析方法
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105447
Boqian Zhang, Donghui Ma, Wei Wang
The population distribution within areas potentially impacted by major accidents is crucial for societal risk analysis. Population data are essential for land use planning activities related to major accident hazards. However, repeated quantitative risk assessments (QRA) and diverse planning scenarios complicate planning decisions in Major Hazard Installation (MHI) areas. This study introduces an analysis method for the safety of population distribution in potential impact zones of major accidents. By combining accident simulation and population distribution characteristics analysis, we established standardized indicators that succinctly indicate safety thresholds for societal risks, addressing the challenge of rapidly assessing off-site population safety. A rapid formula meeting practical needs is provided for urban managers and planners, enabling them to easily evaluate how population density and distribution affect societal risks in MHI areas. Finally, we applied this method to the flammable and explosive hazardous material enterprises in Shijiazhuang, China, demonstrating its functionality and practicality. The application results suggest its potential as a useful decision-support method for guiding urban planning and emergency management. This work offers new insights and valuable demonstrations for enhancing vulnerability and land use risk assessments in MHI regions.
可能受重大事故影响地区的人口分布对于社会风险分析至关重要。人口数据对于与重大事故危害相关的土地利用规划活动至关重要。然而,重复的定量风险评估(QRA)和多样化的规划方案使重大危险设施(MHI)区域的规划决策变得更加复杂。本研究介绍了一种重大事故潜在影响区人口分布安全分析方法。通过将事故模拟与人口分布特征分析相结合,我们建立了简明指示社会风险安全阈值的标准化指标,解决了快速评估场外人口安全的难题。我们为城市管理者和规划者提供了一个符合实际需求的快速公式,使他们能够轻松评估人口密度和分布如何影响多器官功能障碍地区的社会风险。最后,我们将该方法应用于中国石家庄的易燃易爆危险品企业,展示了其功能性和实用性。应用结果表明,该方法有望成为指导城市规划和应急管理的有用决策支持方法。这项工作为加强多波段高风险地区的脆弱性和土地利用风险评估提供了新的见解和有价值的示范。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries
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