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Multidimensional quantitative modeling fusion analysis of safety risks in hydrogen refueling stations: A case study of a station in Beijing 加氢站安全风险多维定量建模融合分析——以北京某加氢站为例
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105865
Zhen Liang , Yunhao Yang , Yingjian Wang , Meng Zhang , Yufeng Zhuang
Hydrogen, as a zero-emission clean energy source with wide availability and pollution-free combustion characteristics, also exhibits high flammability and explosiveness, posing potential fire and explosion hazards. With the rapid global development of the hydrogen energy industry, Hydrogen Refueling Stations (HRSs), as critical infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles, face significant safety operation challenges. To address this, we develop an a multidimensional quantitative modeling and integrated analysis framework for safety risks in HRSs. First, Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) analysis is used to identify hazard sources and extract key deviations and key scenarios that may lead to safety risks. Next, a Bow-Tie model is employed to identify and model top events, intermediate events, and basic events, clearly outlining accident evolution pathways. To quantitatively evaluate event likelihoods under uncertainty, a Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN) is developed by combining expert fuzzy evaluations with historical accident data, enabling probabilistic inference, backward reasoning, and sensitivity analysis to reveal dominant risk factors and critical causal chains. Meanwhile, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to evaluate the consequence severity across the human, equipment, environment, and management dimensions, forming a multidimensional severity assessment system. Finally, accident likelihood and severity are integrated within a risk matrix based on the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle to classify overall risk levels. The findings provide scientific support for safety optimization, accident prevention, and emergency management of HRSs, contributing to the safe and sustainable development of the hydrogen energy industry.
氢气作为一种零排放的清洁能源,具有广泛的可获得性和无公害燃烧特性,但也具有较高的可燃性和爆炸性,具有潜在的火灾和爆炸危险。随着全球氢能产业的快速发展,加氢站作为燃料电池汽车的关键基础设施,面临着重大的安全运行挑战。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了一个多维定量建模和综合分析框架,用于hss的安全风险。首先,通过危害与可操作性研究(HAZOP)分析,识别危险源,提取可能导致安全风险的关键偏差和关键情景。其次,采用Bow-Tie模型对顶级事件、中间事件和基本事件进行识别和建模,清晰地勾勒出事故演化路径。为了定量评估不确定条件下的事件可能性,将专家模糊评价与历史事故数据相结合,建立了模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN),通过概率推理、逆向推理和敏感性分析揭示了显性风险因素和关键因果链。同时,运用层次分析法(AHP)从人、设备、环境、管理四个维度对后果严重程度进行评价,形成多维度的严重程度评价体系。最后,基于“尽可能低的合理可行”(ALARP)原则,将事故可能性和严重程度整合到一个风险矩阵中,对总体风险级别进行分类。研究结果为氢能源系统的安全优化、事故预防和应急管理提供了科学支撑,有助于氢能产业的安全可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Real-time prediction of gas leakage and diffusion for buried natural gas pipelines by deep learning and dimensionality reduction methods 基于深度学习和降维方法的埋地天然气管道泄漏扩散实时预测
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105868
Ziqi Han , Jiansong Wu , Jitao Cai , Congze Wang , Tong Xu , Yuntao Li
Buried natural gas pipelines are essential for urban energy supply, but frequent leakage incidents, especially small “pinhole” leaks in the soil, pose serious safety and environmental risks. Real-time prediction of gas concentration distribution in the soil is crucial for timely detection and prevention. Due to efficiency and accuracy concerns, traditional methods, such as statistical empirical model and numerical model are difficult to apply in on-site prediction. This paper proposes a machine learning model, Conv-β VAE-iTransformer, which integrates dimensionality reduction and multivariate time-series prediction techniques for buried gas pipeline leakage prediction. The model is trained on a dataset generated from a validated numerical model, covering various leakage conditions, including different pressures, locations, and aperture sizes. The evaluation results show the prediction model demonstrates strong generalization and robustness in predicting gas pipeline leakage, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of less than 3 % across various pressure scenarios, and a MAPE of 1.85 % at specific measurement points. Furthermore, comparative experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms others in terms of both prediction range and accuracy. Overall, this study provides an effective solution for the real-time prediction of natural gas diffusion dynamics in the soil, offering a valuable tool for risk assessment and emergency disposal of buried gas pipeline leakage.
埋地天然气管道是城市能源供应的关键,但泄漏事件频发,特别是土壤中细小的“针孔”泄漏,给城市安全与环境带来了严重风险。实时预测土壤中气体浓度分布对及时发现和预防至关重要。由于效率和准确性的问题,传统的统计经验模型和数值模型等方法难以应用于现场预测。本文提出了一种融合降维和多元时间序列预测技术的机器学习模型Conv-β vee - itransformer,用于埋地输气管道泄漏预测。该模型是在经过验证的数值模型生成的数据集上进行训练的,该数据集涵盖了各种泄漏条件,包括不同的压力、位置和孔径大小。评价结果表明,该预测模型具有较强的通用性和鲁棒性,在各种压力情景下的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)小于3%,在特定测点的MAPE为1.85%。此外,对比实验表明,我们的模型在预测范围和精度方面都优于其他模型。总体而言,本研究为天然气在土壤中的扩散动态实时预测提供了有效的解决方案,为埋地输气管道泄漏风险评估和应急处置提供了有价值的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Layout optimization and risk analysis of chemical devices under the synergistic effects of multiple fires 多重火灾协同作用下化工装置布局优化及风险分析
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105866
Di Xiao, Hui-hui Lu, Shu-Yu Chen, Xiang Liu, Jia-Jia Jiang, Jun-Cheng Jiang
In chemical devices, irrational layouts accelerate the propagation of synergistic and domino effects across devices, thereby increasing the severity of accidents. In this paper, the failure probability of each chemical device is estimated by dynamic target device time to failure (ttf) and escalation threshold when synergistic effects of multiple fires are considered. The failure probabilities are further converted into accident damage costs. Then, the optimization model considering the synergistic effects is constructed by combining the other costs. The layout model is solved by combining the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) (PSO-SA) algorithm. Finally, as a case study, ethane, ethanol, and acetic acid tank farm layouts are derived considering synergistic effects and without synergistic effects. When synergistic effects are not considered, the tank layout is more centralized. At the same time, other related costs are reduced while pipeline costs are increased. One of the most hazardous tanks was then selected as the initial tank for accident risk analysis. This work may provide some support for designers in terms of chemical device layout.
在化工设备中,不合理的布局会加速设备间的协同效应和多米诺骨牌效应的传播,从而增加事故的严重性。本文在考虑多场火灾协同效应的情况下,通过动态目标设备失效时间(ttf)和升级阈值估计各化工设备的失效概率。失效概率进一步转化为事故损害成本。然后,结合其他成本,构建考虑协同效应的优化模型。结合模拟退火(SA)算法和粒子群优化(PSO-SA)算法对布局模型进行求解。最后,以乙烷、乙醇和乙酸为例,推导了考虑协同效应和不考虑协同效应的罐区布局。在不考虑协同效应的情况下,坦克布置更加集中。同时降低了其他相关成本,但增加了管道成本。然后选择一个最危险的储罐作为事故风险分析的初始储罐。本工作可为化工设备设计人员提供一定的设计支持。
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引用次数: 0
Performance and fire suppression efficiency of potassium salt-modified dry water agents 钾盐改性干水剂的性能及灭火效果
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105869
Weiyi Ding , Feihao Zhu , Jiaping Zhao , Jun-Cheng Jiang , An-Chi Huang
A novel dry water (DW) fire extinguishing material was developed to enhance the extinguishing efficiency of early-stage oil spill fires. The material is composed of a hydrophobic fumed silica shell and an aqueous core that has been modified with four potassium salts: potassium carbonate (K2CO3), potassium bicarbonate (KHCO3), potassium acetate (CH3COOK), and potassium oxalate (K2C2O4). Bulk density, water retention, fluidity, particle size distribution, and thermogravimetric behaviour were the physical and thermal properties of the modified DW samples that were systematically assessed. Potassium salt-modified DW outperformed unmodified DW in fire suppression experiments conducted on n-heptane pool fires, achieving superior cooling performance and faster flame extinction speed. It is important to note that the shortest extinguishing times were obtained by DW modified with potassium oxalate and potassium carbonate, which were 3 and 4 s, respectively. Within 150 s, all formulations achieved a reduction in core flame temperatures below 200 °C, surpassing the performance of commercial ABC dry powder agents. These results offer an optimistic foundation for the creation of high-efficiency, environmentally friendly fire extinguishing materials that are suitable for oil-related fire situations.
为提高早期溢油火灾的灭火效率,研制了一种新型干水灭火材料。该材料由疏水气相二氧化硅外壳和水芯组成,水芯经碳酸钾(K2CO3)、碳酸氢钾(KHCO3)、醋酸钾(CH3COOK)和草酸钾(K2C2O4)四种钾盐改性。系统评估了改性DW样品的体积密度、保水率、流动性、粒径分布和热重行为。在正庚烷池火灾的灭火实验中,钾盐改性DW比未改性DW具有更好的冷却性能和更快的灭火速度。值得注意的是,草酸钾和碳酸钾改性DW的灭火时间最短,分别为3 s和4 s。在150秒内,所有配方都实现了将核心火焰温度降低到200℃以下,超过了商用ABC干粉剂的性能。这些结果为创造适用于石油相关火灾的高效、环保灭火材料提供了乐观的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic optimization of hazardous materials vehicle transportation routes based on real-time risk 基于实时风险的危险品车辆运输路线动态优化
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105864
Zhanzhong Wang, Tingting Li, Meng Yang, Zhihao Wu
—As industrialization continues to advance, the volume of hazardous materials transportation continues to increase. Given the inherent risks associated with hazardous materials, such as flammability and explosiveness, accidents involving hazardous materials vehicles during transportation can have catastrophic consequences. To mitigate the risk of accidents during hazardous materials transportation caused by factors such as road congestion or sudden incidents, this paper proposes a real-time risk-based dynamic optimization model for dangerous materials transportation routes, guiding vehicles to avoid congested or incident-affected sections of the road. A dual-objective initial path planning model for transportation risk and cost is constructed to obtain the optimal driving path for hazardous materials vehicles under static road network conditions. Based on the initial path, vulnerability indicators are applied to evaluate real-time road segment risks, and the optimal path is selected to minimize dynamic risks, thereby achieving dynamic guidance for hazardous materials vehicles. Taking the road network of Changchun City, Jilin Province, China, as an example, this paper verifies that the proposed model can effectively reduce potential risks during transportation and enhance the safety of the road transportation network. This paper provides a dynamic path optimization algorithm to assess risk levels in different regions at different times, achieving dynamic optimization of hazardous materials vehicle routes.
——随着工业化进程的不断推进,危险物品运输量不断增加。由于危险材料具有可燃性和爆炸性等固有风险,运输过程中涉及危险材料车辆的事故可能造成灾难性后果。为降低因道路拥堵或突发事件等因素导致危险品运输过程中发生事故的风险,本文提出了一种基于风险的危险品运输路线实时动态优化模型,引导车辆避开拥堵或受事故影响的路段。为了获得静态路网条件下危险品车辆的最优行驶路径,建立了考虑运输风险和成本的双目标初始路径规划模型。在初始路径的基础上,应用脆弱性指标实时评价路段风险,选择最优路径,使动态风险最小化,实现对危险品车辆的动态引导。以吉林省长春市道路网络为例,验证了所提出的模型可以有效降低运输过程中的潜在风险,提高道路运输网络的安全性。本文提出了一种动态路径优化算法,对不同区域、不同时间的危险等级进行评估,实现危险品车辆路径的动态优化。
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引用次数: 0
A hybrid deep learning model driven by physical mechanisms and data for predicting corrosion in natural gas pipelines 一个由物理机制和数据驱动的混合深度学习模型,用于预测天然气管道的腐蚀
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105852
Peng Zhang , Chuan Wang , Wei Liu , Haoyu Su
In order to address the challenges posed by complex feature correlations, high uncertainty, and insufficient model generalization in predicting the corrosion depth of natural gas pipelines under small sample conditions, this paper proposes a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates physical mechanisms with data-driven approaches. The framework utilizes a Bayesian Network (BN) to identify seven critical features and constructs six interactive features based on physical-electrochemical corrosion mechanisms to enhance physical consistency. The model employs a three-stage architecture: XGBoost serves as the baseline model to learn global nonlinear trends and generate initial predictions. The Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) is first embedded to perform high-order feature modeling on the residuals of corrosion predictions, enhancing stable representation capabilities. The Gaussian Process (GP) performs residual smoothing correction in the embedded space and outputs a 95 % confidence interval. Validation based on 242 sets of sample data collected from excavation sites of buried pipelines in southern Mexico that have been in service for over 50 years.The findings indicate that by employing Bayesian methods for joint hyperparameter adjustment, the model attains a prediction performance of R2 = 0.9613 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.2809 on a dataset comprising 242 groups. This enhancement in prediction accuracy is accompanied by a reduction in RMSE of over 50 % when compared to a solitary XGB model. A high R2 value indicates that the model possesses exceptional explanatory power and predictive accuracy, while the 95 % confidence interval provides reliable uncertainty boundaries for corrosion risk assessment and safety margin determination in engineering practice. The interpretability of the model was enhanced through the implementation of Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and KAN weight analysis, which facilitated the visualization of both global and local feature contributions. The findings suggest that the water content (wc), dissolved chloride ions (cc), pH, and the interaction feature wc_rp exert a substantial influence on pipeline corrosion. This model achieves a balance between predictive accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification capabilities, thereby providing a reliable foundation for decision-making processes regarding pipeline corrosion monitoring and maintenance in scenarios involving small sample sizes.
为了解决在小样本条件下预测天然气管道腐蚀深度时复杂的特征相关性、高不确定性和模型泛化不足所带来的挑战,本文提出了一种将物理机制与数据驱动方法相结合的混合深度学习框架。该框架利用贝叶斯网络(BN)识别7个关键特征,并基于物理-电化学腐蚀机制构建6个交互特征,以增强物理一致性。该模型采用三阶段架构:XGBoost作为基线模型,用于学习全局非线性趋势并生成初始预测。首先嵌入Kolmogorov-Arnold网络(KAN),对腐蚀预测的残差进行高阶特征建模,增强稳定的表示能力。高斯过程(GP)在嵌入空间中进行残差平滑校正,输出95%的置信区间。基于从墨西哥南部已使用超过50年的埋地管道挖掘地点收集的242组样本数据进行验证。结果表明,采用贝叶斯方法进行联合超参数调整,该模型在242组数据集上的预测性能为R2 = 0.9613,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.2809。与单独的XGB模型相比,预测精度的提高伴随着RMSE降低50%以上。较高的R2值表明该模型具有良好的解释力和预测精度,95%的置信区间为工程实践中腐蚀风险评估和安全裕度确定提供了可靠的不确定性边界。通过Shapley加性解释(SHAP)和KAN权重分析,增强了模型的可解释性,促进了全局和局部特征贡献的可视化。研究结果表明,水含量(wc)、溶解氯离子(cc)、pH和相互作用特征wc_rp对管道腐蚀有重要影响。该模型在预测准确性、可解释性和不确定性量化能力之间取得了平衡,从而为涉及小样本量的管道腐蚀监测和维护决策过程提供了可靠的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of acidic conditions on the thermal hazard of 1-chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene 酸性条件对1-氯-2,4-二硝基苯热危害的影响
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105851
Tianya Zhang, Hui Hu, Bin Zhang
1-Chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene (CDNB) is extensively used as a crucial chemical intermediate in the pharmaceutical, dye, and pesticide industries. The presence of two nitro functional groups in its molecular structure results in substantial heat release during thermal decomposition. An insufficient understanding of its decomposition behavior can lead to severe thermal runaway incidents in industrial production. To investigate the thermal hazard characteristics of CDNB under various acidic environments, this study was designed based on a representative industrial accident scenario. A systematic analysis was carried out using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and accelerating rate calorimetry (ARC), combined with kinetic modeling, to thoroughly investigate the thermal decomposition behavior and runaway potential of CDNB. Experimental data revealed that the decomposition enthalpy of CDNB exceeds 4000 J/g, demonstrating intense exothermicity and a clear tendency for thermal runaway. Moreover, the time to maximum rate under adiabatic conditions (TMRad) was found to be less than 1 h, with a corrected adiabatic temperature rise (ΔTad,f) of 1680.4 K. Based on these thermal safety parameters and risk matrix assessment, the thermal runaway risk level of CDNB was evaluated as Level 3, corresponding to an “unacceptable risk” category. Notably, in the ARC experiment, the addition of sulfuric and nitric acids significantly lowered the initial decomposition temperature of CDNB. Their catalytic effects became more pronounced with increasing acid concentrations, with the temperatures being reduced by up to 40.2 °C and 50.0 °C, respectively. Under different acidic conditions, the activation energy of CDNB decreased by 14.3–99.0 kJ/mol, significantly increasing the likelihood of thermal hazard events. This study provides essential theoretical support for risk assessment and control in the safe industrial handling of CDNB.
1-氯-2,4-二硝基苯(CDNB)作为一种重要的化学中间体广泛应用于制药、染料和农药工业。其分子结构中两个硝基官能团的存在导致热分解过程中大量放热。对其分解行为的不充分了解可能导致工业生产中严重的热失控事件。为了研究不同酸性环境下CDNB的热危害特性,本研究基于一个具有代表性的工业事故场景进行设计。采用差示扫描量热法(DSC)和加速量热法(ARC)结合动力学模型,对CDNB的热分解行为和失控势进行了系统分析。实验数据表明,CDNB的分解焓超过4000 J/g,表现出强烈的放热性和明显的热失控倾向。此外,在绝热条件下达到最大速率的时间(TMRad)小于1 h,校正的绝热温升(ΔTad,f)为1680.4 K。基于这些热安全参数和风险矩阵评估,CDNB的热失控风险等级为3级,对应于“不可接受的风险”类别。值得注意的是,在ARC实验中,硫酸和硝酸的加入显著降低了CDNB的初始分解温度。随着酸浓度的增加,它们的催化作用更加明显,温度分别降低了40.2°C和50.0°C。在不同的酸性条件下,CDNB的活化能降低了14.3 ~ 99.0 kJ/mol,显著增加了热危害事件发生的可能性。本研究为CDNB工业安全处理的风险评估与控制提供了必要的理论支持。
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引用次数: 0
Augmented reality for enhancing educational experience in laboratory safety training 增强现实增强实验室安全培训的教育经验
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105848
Saizhe Ding , Tong Lu , Xin Lv , Yuxin Zhang , Rong Deng , Xinyan Huang
Unsafe behavior is one of the main causes of on-site safety accidents, while safety training is critical for mitigating such workplace hazards and ensuring operational reliability. Therefore, to improve the effectiveness of safety training, this paper proposes a novel On-site AR-based Training System (OATS) to enhance training experience. The developed video see-through AR eliminates the heavy requirement of virtual environment modeling by superimposing training content onto the real world. Moreover, enhanced interaction enables users to engage with virtual elements beyond passive animation or Q&A sessions; meanwhile, the isometric locomotion method reduces motion discomfort by tracking real body movements. For the demonstration, laboratory safety training is conducted by comparing the proposed AR approaches with traditional video-based training involving 36 participants. Results showed that OATS outperformed traditional video-based training in knowledge acquisition, self-efficacy, and intrinsic motivation after training. Meanwhile, it demonstrated high usability (p = 0.005) and presence (p < 0.001) while maintaining low simulator sickness and task load. These findings confirm OATS's potential to improve educational experience and deliver reliable safety training.
不安全行为是造成现场安全事故的主要原因之一,而安全培训是减轻工作场所危害和确保运行可靠性的关键。因此,为了提高安全培训的有效性,本文提出了一种新型的基于现场增强现实的培训系统(OATS),以增强培训体验。开发的视频透视AR通过将训练内容叠加到现实世界中,消除了对虚拟环境建模的繁重要求。此外,增强的交互性使用户能够与虚拟元素互动,而不仅仅是被动动画或问答环节;同时,等距运动方法通过跟踪真实的身体运动来减少运动的不适感。在演示中,通过将拟议的AR方法与传统的基于视频的培训进行比较,进行实验室安全培训,共有36名参与者。结果表明,在知识获取、自我效能和训练后的内在动机方面,燕麦训练优于传统视频训练。同时,它显示出高可用性(p = 0.005)和存在性(p < 0.001),同时保持低模拟器眩晕和任务负载。这些发现证实了燕麦在改善教育体验和提供可靠的安全培训方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
A probabilistic model for natural gas pipeline failure under climate-induced Natech hazards: Toward AI-based safety management 气候诱发的天然气管道故障概率模型:基于人工智能的安全管理
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105849
Guojin Qin , Zijin Zhang , Xu Wang , Yihuan Wang
Climate change is reshaping the risk landscape for natural gas pipelines, with landslides emerging as a major driver of technological accidents triggered by natural hazards (Natech events). Conventional Natech risk models rarely incorporate climate-sensitive parameters such as groundwater levels and soil moisture, limiting their capacity to capture evolving threats. This study develops a probabilistic model that explicitly links climate-driven landslide susceptibility to pipeline vulnerability, providing a quantitative basis for assessing pipeline failure probability under different emission projection scenarios. Using Monte Carlo simulations across five regions in China, the results show that under high-emission pathways (SSP5-8.5), pipeline failure probability in summer increases dramatically. For example, from 0.320 to 0.943 in Xinjiang, 0.112 to 0.220 in Sichuan, and 0.087 to 0.188 in Hainan. In cold regions, winter failure probability more than doubles, rising from 0.206 to 0.501 in Heilongjiang and from 0.235 to 0.488 in Beijing. These shifts reveal an overall increase in risk, intensification of seasonal contrasts, and, in some areas, a reconfiguration of high-risk periods. Sensitivity analysis highlights groundwater levels and soil moisture as the dominant drivers, with regional differences shaped by precipitation regimes, permafrost thaw, and typhoon impacts. Building on these insights, this study proposes an AI-based condition-monitoring framework that integrates real-time climate and geotechnical data to support adaptive early warning and safety management.
气候变化正在重塑天然气管道的风险格局,山体滑坡正成为自然灾害(Natech事件)引发的技术事故的主要驱动力。传统的Natech风险模型很少纳入对气候敏感的参数,如地下水位和土壤湿度,限制了它们捕捉不断变化的威胁的能力。本研究建立了一个概率模型,明确地将气候驱动的滑坡易感性与管道脆弱性联系起来,为评估不同排放预测情景下管道失效概率提供了定量依据。通过蒙特卡罗模拟分析,结果表明:在高排放路径下(SSP5-8.5),夏季管道失效概率显著增加;例如,新疆为0.320 ~ 0.943,四川为0.112 ~ 0.220,海南为0.087 ~ 0.188。在寒冷地区,冬季故障概率增加了一倍以上,黑龙江从0.206上升到0.501,北京从0.235上升到0.488。这些变化表明风险总体增加,季节差异加剧,在某些地区,高风险时期的重新配置。敏感性分析强调,地下水水位和土壤湿度是主要驱动因素,降水制度、永久冻土融化和台风影响形成了区域差异。在这些见解的基础上,本研究提出了一个基于人工智能的状态监测框架,该框架集成了实时气候和岩土数据,以支持自适应预警和安全管理。
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引用次数: 0
Minor pipeline leak detection and localization using explainable deep learning with fusion of distributed fiber-optic vibration and temperature signals 利用分布式光纤振动和温度信号融合的可解释深度学习进行小管道泄漏检测和定位
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105844
Ruijiao Ma, Jiawei Liu, Wei Wu, Yang Yang, Xiaowei Liu, Shuai Zhang, Meng Zou, Yixin Zhang
Oil gathering and transportation pipelines are the crucial component in oilfield production systems, however, leaks can cause significant economic losses and environmental pollution. Distributed Vibration Sensing (DVS) technology has been effectively utilized for leak detection; nevertheless, minor leaks often generate weak signals that are difficult to accurately capture and analyze. Given the temperature difference between the oil inside the pipeline and the surrounding environment, even small leaks can lead to detectable changes in the ambient temperature near the leak point. Based on this insight, this study proposes an intelligent pipeline micro-leakage monitoring technique integrating distributed fiber-optic temperature and vibration signals to achieve accurate leakage identification and localization. First, utilizing a self-built distributed optical fiber test platform, vibration and temperature signals were collected under various conditions, including normal operation, leakage scenarios, and environmental interference. Subsequently, a systematic model selection process was implemented through the comparative evaluation of five deep learning architectures (ResNet, 2DCNN, CNN-LSTM, CNN-attention and CNN-LSTM-attention). The fusion of vibration and temperature signals at the decision level was performed to enhance recognition accuracy and improve localization performance. The CNN-LSTM-attention model emerged as the most suitable, demonstrating an accuracy rate of 99.52 % and achieving precise leak location within ±1 m. During model training, the Adam optimizer and L2 regularization were utilized to adjust learning rates and prevent overfitting, improving the model's generalization ability. Furthermore, SHAP interpretability analysis was applied to visualize feature contributions and validate the model's decision logic. Finally, a leakage detection and early warning software system was developed, facilitating immediate observation of leak locations and execution of responsive actions.
输油管道是油田生产系统的重要组成部分,但泄漏会造成重大的经济损失和环境污染。分布式振动传感(Distributed Vibration Sensing, DVS)技术已被有效地用于泄漏检测;然而,较小的泄漏通常会产生难以准确捕获和分析的微弱信号。考虑到管道内的油与周围环境之间的温差,即使是很小的泄漏也会导致泄漏点附近环境温度的可检测变化。基于此,本研究提出了一种集成分布式光纤温度和振动信号的智能管道微泄漏监测技术,以实现准确的泄漏识别和定位。首先,利用自建的分布式光纤测试平台,采集正常运行、泄漏、环境干扰等不同工况下的振动和温度信号。随后,通过对五种深度学习架构(ResNet、2DCNN、CNN-LSTM、CNN-attention和CNN-LSTM-attention)的比较评估,实现了系统的模型选择过程。在决策层对振动和温度信号进行融合,提高了识别精度和定位性能。CNN-LSTM-attention模型是最合适的,准确率为99.52%,在±1 m范围内实现了精确的泄漏定位。在模型训练过程中,利用Adam优化器和L2正则化来调整学习率,防止过拟合,提高模型的泛化能力。此外,应用SHAP可解释性分析将特征贡献可视化并验证模型的决策逻辑。最后,开发了泄漏检测和早期预警软件系统,方便立即观察泄漏位置并执行响应行动。
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Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries
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