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Design and implementation of a VR-based evacuation simulation system: A case study with impaired people 基于vr的疏散模拟系统的设计与实现:以残疾人为例研究
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105888
Jiayue Wang , Huanyu Wang , Liangchang Shen , Liping Kou , Yunhe Tong
In the process industries, incident investigations repeatedly show that deficiencies in evacuation guidance systems contribute to casualties during fires, explosions, and toxic releases. Effective guidance that performs reliably under such hazardous conditions is therefore a critical component of process safety and loss prevention. However, traditional evacuation drills often lack realism, repeatability, and inclusivity, limiting their value for hazard mitigation and safety system optimisation. This study develops a Virtual Reality (VR)-based evacuation simulation platform designed for both safety training and empirical evaluation of evacuation guidance strategies. The system models a five-story enclosed building with configurable layouts, emergency broadcasts, and multiple signage types (graphic-only, text-based, combined, and enhanced with directional or supplementary cues). It enables safe, repeatable testing of human response to process-related emergency scenarios, recording detailed behavioural metrics such as movement trajectories, decision points, and evacuation time. In the case study, 88 % of participants deviated from the designated route at least once, and several intersections showed 10–30 misjudgements. Misjudgement frequency strongly predicted evacuation time, and the optimal signage–broadcast configurations substantially reduced average evacuation times for both hearing-impaired and cognitively impaired participants. The results revealed frequent navigation errors and highlighted guidance combinations tailored to different user needs, such as prominent door and wall signage for hearing-impaired individuals and early verbal alerts aligned with visual cues for those with cognitive impairments. This work introduces a practical tool for loss prevention in the process industries, supporting the design and verification of evacuation systems, training programs, and architectural layouts in alignment with process safety objectives.
在过程工业中,事故调查一再表明,疏散指导系统的缺陷导致火灾、爆炸和有毒物质释放时的人员伤亡。因此,在这种危险条件下可靠执行的有效指导是过程安全和预防损失的关键组成部分。然而,传统的疏散演习往往缺乏现实性、可重复性和包容性,限制了它们在减轻危害和优化安全系统方面的价值。本研究开发了一个基于虚拟现实(VR)的疏散仿真平台,用于安全培训和疏散引导策略的实证评估。该系统模拟了一个五层的封闭式建筑,具有可配置的布局、紧急广播和多种标识类型(纯图形、基于文本、组合、增强方向或补充提示)。它可以安全、可重复地测试人类对过程相关紧急情况的反应,记录详细的行为指标,如运动轨迹、决策点和疏散时间。在案例研究中,88%的参与者至少偏离了一次指定路线,几个十字路口出现了10-30次误判。误判频率对疏散时间有很强的预测作用,而最佳的标识广播配置大大减少了听力受损和认知受损参与者的平均疏散时间。结果显示导航错误频发,并突出了针对不同用户需求量身定制的指导组合,例如为听力受损的人提供显眼的门和墙壁标识,以及为认知障碍的人提供与视觉提示一致的早期口头警报。这项工作介绍了过程工业中预防损失的实用工具,支持疏散系统、培训计划和符合过程安全目标的建筑布局的设计和验证。
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引用次数: 0
Inhibitory effects of varying kaolin concentrations on CH4/H2 explosion characteristics 不同高岭土浓度对CH4/H2爆炸特性的抑制作用
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105889
Shanshan Liu, Dongxu Huang, Yong Pan, Zhenhua Wang, Juncheng Jiang
This study employs laser schlieren imaging and pressure measurement techniques to investigate the impact of kaolin (Ko) on the explosion behavior of CH4/H2 mixtures at various equivalence ratios (0.8, 1.0 and 1.2) and H2 contents (0, 0.3 and 0.9). Results indicate that the inhibitory effect of Ko first increases and then decreases with increasing concentration, achieving optimal suppression at 175 g/m3. Under the same equivalent ratios (φ), the reduction in maximum explosion pressure (Pmax) becomes more pronounced with higher H2 addition (R). At constant R but varying φ, the suppression effect exhibits a different trend: when R = 0 and 0.3, optimal suppression occurs at φ = 0.8. Whereas at R = 0.9, the optimal suppression effect is observed at φ = 1.0, corresponding to a 30.27 % reduction in Pmax. As the Ko concentration increases, dust enhances flow field instability, thereby accelerating the transformation of the flame structure. Meanwhile, higher hydrogen addition (R) intensifies chemiluminescence, and heated Ko particles to emit strong intense thermal radiation. The combined effect of these two factors causes the flame to appear bright white-yellow. A coupled analysis of flame propagation and pressure evolution reveals that, despite differences in φ, the coupled evolution of flame and pressure remains highly similar under the same R. The main distinctions arise in the timing of critical flame development stage and flame brightness. Overall, Ko suppresses explosions primarily through physical mechanisms such as endothermic cooling, dilution and isolation effects, and thermal radiation shielding, and it exhibits particularly strong suppression at high H2 additions.
本研究采用激光纹影成像和压力测量技术,研究了高岭土(Ko)在不同当量比(0.8、1.0和1.2)和H2含量(0、0.3和0.9)下对CH4/H2混合物爆炸行为的影响。结果表明,随着浓度的增加,Ko的抑制效果先增大后减小,在175 g/m3时达到最佳抑制效果。在相同当量比(φ)下,H2加入量(R)越高,最大爆炸压力(Pmax)降低越明显。当R不变,φ变化时,抑制效果呈现出不同的趋势,当R = 0和0.3时,φ = 0.8时抑制效果最佳。而当R = 0.9时,φ = 1.0时的抑制效果最佳,对应于Pmax降低30.27%。随着Ko浓度的增加,粉尘增强了流场的不稳定性,从而加速了火焰结构的转变。同时,较高的加氢量(R)增强了化学发光,加热的Ko粒子发出强烈的热辐射。这两个因素的综合作用使火焰呈现出明亮的白黄色。火焰传播和压力演化的耦合分析表明,尽管φ不同,但在相同的r下,火焰和压力的耦合演化高度相似,主要区别在于临界火焰发展阶段的时间和火焰亮度。总的来说,Ko主要通过吸热冷却、稀释和隔离效应以及热辐射屏蔽等物理机制抑制爆炸,并且在高H2添加时表现出特别强的抑制作用。
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引用次数: 0
Explosion parameters of aviation kerosene/nano aluminum mixture at initial high temperature and pressure 航空煤油/纳米铝混合物在初始高温高压下的爆炸参数
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105919
Yue Wang , Zhiguo Chang , Qi Zhang
JP10 (95(w)%) and nm aluminum (5(w)%) in air mist, as a special fuel used in underground mining of coalbed methane, the explosion hazard is the basis of safety design. In this study, the explosion pressure, the maximum rate of explosion pressure rise and the lower limit of the explosion concentration of aviation kerosene JP10 (95(w)%) and nm-aluminum powder (5(w)%) mist under different initial pressures and initial temperatures were observed by using a 20 L mist explosion experimental device. Change laws of the experimental peak explosion pressures of the JP10 (95(w)%) and nm aluminum (5(w)%) in air mist with concentration, with initial pressure and initial temperature have been found respectively. The experimental peak explosion pressures of the JP10 (95(w)%) and nm aluminum (5(w)%) in air mist at the concentration 500 g/m3 increase with the initial pressure and decrease as the initial temperature increases. The experimental lower explosion concentration limits of the fuel (JP10, 95(w)% nm aluminum, 5(w)% in air) mist decrease as the initial temperature increases within the initial temperature range from 30 °C to 80 °C.The lower explosion limit of the fuel-air mixture JP10 (95w%) and nm AL powder (5w%) decreases as the initial pressure increases from 0.1 MPa to 0.3 MPa.
JP10 (95(w)%)和nm铝(5(w)%)作为煤层气地下开采的特殊燃料,其爆炸危险性是安全设计的依据。本研究采用20 L雾剂爆炸实验装置,对航空煤油JP10 (95(w)%)和纳米铝粉(5(w)%)雾剂在不同初始压力和初始温度下的爆炸压力、最大爆炸压力上升率和爆炸浓度下限进行了观测。得到了JP10 (95(w)%)和nm铝(5(w)%)在空气雾中实验峰值爆炸压力随浓度、初始压力和初始温度的变化规律。在500 g/m3浓度的空气雾中,JP10 (95(w)%)和nm铝(5(w)%)的实验峰值爆炸压力随初始压力增大而增大,随初始温度升高而减小。在30 ~ 80℃的初始温度范围内,燃料(JP10, 95(w)% nm铝,5(w)%空气)雾的实验爆炸下限随着初始温度的升高而降低。当初始压力从0.1 MPa增加到0.3 MPa时,JP10 (95w%)和nm AL粉(5w%)的混合气爆炸下限降低。
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引用次数: 0
Multidimensional quantitative modeling fusion analysis of safety risks in hydrogen refueling stations: A case study of a station in Beijing 加氢站安全风险多维定量建模融合分析——以北京某加氢站为例
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105865
Zhen Liang , Yunhao Yang , Yingjian Wang , Meng Zhang , Yufeng Zhuang
Hydrogen, as a zero-emission clean energy source with wide availability and pollution-free combustion characteristics, also exhibits high flammability and explosiveness, posing potential fire and explosion hazards. With the rapid global development of the hydrogen energy industry, Hydrogen Refueling Stations (HRSs), as critical infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles, face significant safety operation challenges. To address this, we develop an a multidimensional quantitative modeling and integrated analysis framework for safety risks in HRSs. First, Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) analysis is used to identify hazard sources and extract key deviations and key scenarios that may lead to safety risks. Next, a Bow-Tie model is employed to identify and model top events, intermediate events, and basic events, clearly outlining accident evolution pathways. To quantitatively evaluate event likelihoods under uncertainty, a Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN) is developed by combining expert fuzzy evaluations with historical accident data, enabling probabilistic inference, backward reasoning, and sensitivity analysis to reveal dominant risk factors and critical causal chains. Meanwhile, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to evaluate the consequence severity across the human, equipment, environment, and management dimensions, forming a multidimensional severity assessment system. Finally, accident likelihood and severity are integrated within a risk matrix based on the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle to classify overall risk levels. The findings provide scientific support for safety optimization, accident prevention, and emergency management of HRSs, contributing to the safe and sustainable development of the hydrogen energy industry.
氢气作为一种零排放的清洁能源,具有广泛的可获得性和无公害燃烧特性,但也具有较高的可燃性和爆炸性,具有潜在的火灾和爆炸危险。随着全球氢能产业的快速发展,加氢站作为燃料电池汽车的关键基础设施,面临着重大的安全运行挑战。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了一个多维定量建模和综合分析框架,用于hss的安全风险。首先,通过危害与可操作性研究(HAZOP)分析,识别危险源,提取可能导致安全风险的关键偏差和关键情景。其次,采用Bow-Tie模型对顶级事件、中间事件和基本事件进行识别和建模,清晰地勾勒出事故演化路径。为了定量评估不确定条件下的事件可能性,将专家模糊评价与历史事故数据相结合,建立了模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN),通过概率推理、逆向推理和敏感性分析揭示了显性风险因素和关键因果链。同时,运用层次分析法(AHP)从人、设备、环境、管理四个维度对后果严重程度进行评价,形成多维度的严重程度评价体系。最后,基于“尽可能低的合理可行”(ALARP)原则,将事故可能性和严重程度整合到一个风险矩阵中,对总体风险级别进行分类。研究结果为氢能源系统的安全优化、事故预防和应急管理提供了科学支撑,有助于氢能产业的安全可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Risk management model for long-distance pipelines based on multi-dimensional safety barriers: An analytical framework in control measures research 基于多维安全屏障的长输管道风险管理模型:控制措施研究中的分析框架
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105910
Qian Wang , Fanjie Liang , Weichun Chang , Ruipeng Tong
The nonlinear interactions of human, machine, environmental, and management factors within long-distance pipeline systems constitute complex scenarios of risk evolution. However, systematic research on the types, functions, and models of safety barriers applicable to risk management has not yet been carried out. Therefore, this study developed a risk management model that incorporates multiple strategies including hard measures, soft measures, support measures, and emergency measures based on the multi-dimensional safety barriers of engineering technology, maintenance, personnel operations, and emergency measures. First, through expert consultations and systematic coding, we analyzed fundamental attributes, including spatiotemporal distribution, risk characteristics, and control measures, of 2013 safety incidents from China's largest pipeline enterprise, and applied cluster analysis to systematically classify these incidents. Second, we used Social Network Analysis (SNA) to explore the network topology of risk factors and control measures across different safety incident types, thereby identifying critical control measures in the overall complex system. Finally, the integrated weights of the control measures were determined by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with centrality metrics, thereby quantifying the effectiveness of control measures in the risk management model. The results show that static equipment, management execution, procedure compliance, and source control are critical control measures in the pipeline system risk framework, with calculated weights of 0.118, 0.115, 0.115, and 0.114, respectively. This study promotes a paradigm shift in risk management from linear management measures to systemic safety barriers.
长输管道系统中人、机、环境和管理因素的非线性相互作用构成了复杂的风险演化情景。然而,对于适用于风险管理的安全屏障的类型、功能和模型还没有进行系统的研究。因此,本研究基于工程技术、维护、人员操作、应急措施等多维安全屏障,构建了包含硬措施、软措施、保障措施、应急措施等多种策略的风险管理模型。首先,通过专家咨询和系统编码,对2013年中国最大管道企业安全事故的时空分布、风险特征、控制措施等基本属性进行分析,并应用聚类分析对事故进行系统分类。其次,利用社会网络分析(Social Network Analysis, SNA)对不同安全事件类型的风险因素和控制措施的网络拓扑结构进行探索,从而识别出整个复杂系统中的关键控制措施。最后,结合层次分析法(AHP)和中心性指标确定控制措施的综合权重,从而量化风险管理模型中控制措施的有效性。结果表明,静态设备、管理执行、程序符合性和源头控制是管道系统风险框架中的关键控制措施,其计算权重分别为0.118、0.115、0.115和0.114。这项研究促进了风险管理的范式转变,从线性管理措施到系统的安全屏障。
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引用次数: 0
A hybrid deep learning model driven by physical mechanisms and data for predicting corrosion in natural gas pipelines 一个由物理机制和数据驱动的混合深度学习模型,用于预测天然气管道的腐蚀
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105852
Peng Zhang , Chuan Wang , Wei Liu , Haoyu Su
In order to address the challenges posed by complex feature correlations, high uncertainty, and insufficient model generalization in predicting the corrosion depth of natural gas pipelines under small sample conditions, this paper proposes a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates physical mechanisms with data-driven approaches. The framework utilizes a Bayesian Network (BN) to identify seven critical features and constructs six interactive features based on physical-electrochemical corrosion mechanisms to enhance physical consistency. The model employs a three-stage architecture: XGBoost serves as the baseline model to learn global nonlinear trends and generate initial predictions. The Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) is first embedded to perform high-order feature modeling on the residuals of corrosion predictions, enhancing stable representation capabilities. The Gaussian Process (GP) performs residual smoothing correction in the embedded space and outputs a 95 % confidence interval. Validation based on 242 sets of sample data collected from excavation sites of buried pipelines in southern Mexico that have been in service for over 50 years.The findings indicate that by employing Bayesian methods for joint hyperparameter adjustment, the model attains a prediction performance of R2 = 0.9613 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.2809 on a dataset comprising 242 groups. This enhancement in prediction accuracy is accompanied by a reduction in RMSE of over 50 % when compared to a solitary XGB model. A high R2 value indicates that the model possesses exceptional explanatory power and predictive accuracy, while the 95 % confidence interval provides reliable uncertainty boundaries for corrosion risk assessment and safety margin determination in engineering practice. The interpretability of the model was enhanced through the implementation of Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and KAN weight analysis, which facilitated the visualization of both global and local feature contributions. The findings suggest that the water content (wc), dissolved chloride ions (cc), pH, and the interaction feature wc_rp exert a substantial influence on pipeline corrosion. This model achieves a balance between predictive accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification capabilities, thereby providing a reliable foundation for decision-making processes regarding pipeline corrosion monitoring and maintenance in scenarios involving small sample sizes.
为了解决在小样本条件下预测天然气管道腐蚀深度时复杂的特征相关性、高不确定性和模型泛化不足所带来的挑战,本文提出了一种将物理机制与数据驱动方法相结合的混合深度学习框架。该框架利用贝叶斯网络(BN)识别7个关键特征,并基于物理-电化学腐蚀机制构建6个交互特征,以增强物理一致性。该模型采用三阶段架构:XGBoost作为基线模型,用于学习全局非线性趋势并生成初始预测。首先嵌入Kolmogorov-Arnold网络(KAN),对腐蚀预测的残差进行高阶特征建模,增强稳定的表示能力。高斯过程(GP)在嵌入空间中进行残差平滑校正,输出95%的置信区间。基于从墨西哥南部已使用超过50年的埋地管道挖掘地点收集的242组样本数据进行验证。结果表明,采用贝叶斯方法进行联合超参数调整,该模型在242组数据集上的预测性能为R2 = 0.9613,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.2809。与单独的XGB模型相比,预测精度的提高伴随着RMSE降低50%以上。较高的R2值表明该模型具有良好的解释力和预测精度,95%的置信区间为工程实践中腐蚀风险评估和安全裕度确定提供了可靠的不确定性边界。通过Shapley加性解释(SHAP)和KAN权重分析,增强了模型的可解释性,促进了全局和局部特征贡献的可视化。研究结果表明,水含量(wc)、溶解氯离子(cc)、pH和相互作用特征wc_rp对管道腐蚀有重要影响。该模型在预测准确性、可解释性和不确定性量化能力之间取得了平衡,从而为涉及小样本量的管道腐蚀监测和维护决策过程提供了可靠的基础。
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引用次数: 0
CFD analysis and parameter optimization of explosion suppression powder injection in a bag filter 袋式除尘器抑爆喷粉CFD分析及参数优化
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105895
Xiangbao Meng , Dengzhao Li , Jun Yuan , Shanshan Liu
The accumulation of combustible dust in industrial bag filters poses severe explosion risks. Automatic suppressant powder injection serves as a key protective measure, whose effectiveness hinges critically on the injection flow field and the uniformity of suppressant dispersion. This study employs a transient gas-solid two-phase CFD model in ANSYS Fluent to investigate an industrial bag filter. Based on the Euler-Lagrange framework and the Discrete Phase Model (DPM), flow field characteristics and suppressant dispersion patterns were systematically analyzed under three injection directions (downwind, upwind, sideward) and two pressures (4 MPa and 5 MPa). The coefficient of variation (COV) was introduced to quantify distribution uniformity. Results indicate that the downwind injection at 5 MPa achieves an optimal balance between coverage and stability, yielding a bottom average dust concentration of 0.85 kg/m3 and a COV of 0.33. The sideward injection at 4 MPa offers better flow stability (COV = 0.42) albeit with slightly lower coverage. In contrast, the upwind 5 MPa condition is the least favorable, as intense vortices induce suppressant re-suspension. These findings provide a theoretical basis and direct parametric guidance for the explosion-proof design and optimization of bag filter systems.
工业袋式除尘器中可燃性粉尘的积累具有严重的爆炸危险。自动喷粉是一项关键的防护措施,其有效性关键取决于喷粉流场和喷粉分散的均匀性。本文采用ANSYS Fluent中的瞬态气固两相CFD模型对某工业袋式除尘器进行了数值模拟。基于欧拉-拉格朗日框架和离散相模型(DPM),系统分析了3种喷射方向(顺风、逆风、侧向)和2种压力(4 MPa和5 MPa)下的流场特性和抑制弥散模式。引入变异系数(COV)来量化分布均匀性。结果表明,5 MPa下风喷流在覆盖度和稳定性之间达到了最佳平衡,底部平均粉尘浓度为0.85 kg/m3, COV为0.33。在4mpa下,侧注提供了更好的流动稳定性(COV = 0.42),尽管覆盖范围略小。相反,逆风5mpa条件是最不利的,因为强烈的涡旋会引起抑制性再悬浮。这些研究结果为袋式除尘器系统的防爆设计和优化提供了理论依据和直接的参数指导。
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引用次数: 0
Design of an integrated firefighting suit with hazardous gas monitoring and early warning applying a time series model 应用时间序列模型设计具有危险气体监测预警功能的一体化消防服
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105894
Yiwei Peng , Wenguo Weng , Xinyan Huang , Zhichao He
Fire accident environments expose firefighters to life-threatening hazardous gases such as CO, HCN, and HCl, which can cause asphyxiation, organ damage, or even fatalities. Despite advancements in protective gear, conventional firefighting suits primarily offer passive protection, lacking real-time hazard forecasting. This reactive paradigm often results in delayed warnings against dynamic gas threats. This study proposes an innovative hardware-software integrated firefighting suit designed for proactive safety. The system combines wearable multi-gas sensors, edge computing, and a time series prediction model to forecast gas concentrations with 96.25 % accuracy. By analyzing historical data trends, the suit dynamically classifies hazard levels using a human vulnerability probit model, enabling proactive risk mitigation. Experimental results from simulated fire scenarios demonstrate superior performance in predicting concentrations of gases like H2S and CO. The integration of predictive algorithms with real-time monitoring shifts safety management from passive response to proactive decision-making, enhancing firefighter survivability and operational efficiency. This advancement lays the foundation for next-generation intelligent firefighting equipment. This study is expected to provide a basis for the design of a kind of active protective firefighting suit.
火灾事故环境使消防员暴露在危及生命的危险气体中,如一氧化碳、HCN和HCl,这些气体可能导致窒息、器官损伤甚至死亡。尽管防护装备有了进步,但传统的消防服主要提供被动保护,缺乏实时危险预测。这种反应性范例经常导致对动态气体威胁的延迟警告。本研究提出一种以主动安全为目标的创新硬软体一体消防服。该系统结合了可穿戴式多气体传感器、边缘计算和时间序列预测模型,预测气体浓度的准确率为96.25%。通过分析历史数据趋势,该套装使用人类脆弱性概率模型动态分类危险级别,从而实现主动风险缓解。模拟火灾场景的实验结果表明,该系统在预测H2S和CO等气体浓度方面具有卓越的性能。将预测算法与实时监控相结合,将安全管理从被动响应转变为主动决策,提高了消防员的生存能力和操作效率。这一进步为下一代智能消防设备奠定了基础。本研究可望为一种主动防护型消防服的设计提供依据。
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引用次数: 0
A Safety-II theory based method for human reliability assessment to prevent fire and explosion during shipping LNG offloading 基于Safety-II理论的LNG船舶卸载过程火灾与爆炸人为可靠性评估方法
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105920
Renyou Zhang , Mengjie Shi , Rabiul Islam , Shanguang Chen , Shaowen Ding , Zhen Liao , Zhan Dou
Human factors constitute the important element in ensuring operational safety in high-risk industries. Particularly in complex operations such as shipping Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) offloading, even minor operational errors can cause disastrous consequences such as fire and explosion. Traditional accident causation theories often focus excessively on specific and localized causes, overlooking the intricate interconnections among components involved in complex tasks. This oversight can result in an inaccurate safety analysis model and questionable quantitative outcomes. Therefore, this study adopts the Safety-II theoretical framework, providing a perspective for understanding dynamic human-factor interactions in complex systems. Firstly, this study employs the Functional Resonance Analysis Method and Minimum Spanning Tree (FRAM-MST) algorithm to identify the critical functional coupling. Building upon this framework, the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) and Bayesian network (BN) are introduced to perform a quantitative risk analysis of unsafe behavior, assessing them from a probability perspective and calculating the Human Error Probability (HEP). The findings indicate that HEP for the LNG offloading operation is 1.52 × 10−4. This outcome provides operators with a clearer understanding of the risks associated with the operations, enabling the development of targeted explosion-proof measures.
人为因素是保证高风险行业安全运行的重要因素。特别是在运输液化天然气(LNG)卸载等复杂作业中,即使是很小的操作错误也可能导致火灾和爆炸等灾难性后果。传统的事故原因理论往往过分关注具体的、局部的原因,忽视了复杂任务中各组成部分之间错综复杂的相互联系。这种疏忽可能导致不准确的安全分析模型和可疑的定量结果。因此,本研究采用Safety-II理论框架,为理解复杂系统中人因动态交互提供了一个视角。首先,采用功能共振分析法和最小生成树(FRAM-MST)算法识别关键功能耦合;在此框架的基础上,引入认知可靠性和错误分析方法(CREAM)和贝叶斯网络(BN)对不安全行为进行定量风险分析,从概率角度对其进行评估,并计算人类错误概率(HEP)。结果表明,LNG卸载作业的HEP为1.52 × 10−4。该结果使作业人员能够更清楚地了解与作业相关的风险,从而能够制定有针对性的防爆措施。
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引用次数: 0
Explainable AI-driven predictive maintenance for mitigating process safety risks in safety-critical industrial equipment 可解释的人工智能驱动的预测性维护,以减轻安全关键工业设备的过程安全风险
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105907
Zainab Ali Bu Sinnah
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly transforming process safety by enabling early detection of equipment failures that could escalate into fires, explosions, or toxic releases. This study presents an interpretable hybrid machine learning framework that integrates ensemble tree classifiers with bio-inspired optimization algorithms for predictive maintenance in industrial settings. While demonstrated on CNC machinery, the framework is generalizable to safety-critical process equipment, enabling early detection of operational anomalies that could potentially escalate into process safety hazards. Using a twelve-month dataset of 2500 operating cycles from machinery representative of chemical and process plants, recursive feature elimination identified seven key process variables: hydraulic and coolant pressures, coolant and hydraulic-oil temperatures, spindle speed, torque, and cutting force that capture essential thermomechanical behavior associated with unsafe operating conditions. The hybrid models, validated through stratified 5-fold cross-validation, achieved test accuracies exceeding 0.98 and demonstrated robustness to industrial variability. Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) analysis provided transparent, physically interpretable insights, highlighting torque and hydraulic pressure as dominant predictors of potential process hazards, while revealing synergistic effects of spindle speed and cutting force. By combining real-world sensor data, advanced optimization, and explainable AI, this framework enables proactive identification of safety-critical equipment degradation, supports inherently safer operations, and addresses key challenges of trustworthiness and interpretability in AI for process safety.
人工智能(AI)通过早期检测可能升级为火灾、爆炸或有毒物质释放的设备故障,正日益改变过程安全。本研究提出了一个可解释的混合机器学习框架,该框架将集成树分类器与生物启发的优化算法集成在一起,用于工业环境中的预测性维护。虽然在CNC机械上进行了演示,但该框架可推广到安全关键的工艺设备,从而能够早期发现可能升级为工艺安全隐患的操作异常。使用来自化工和加工工厂机械代表的12个月2500个操作周期的数据集,递归特征消除确定了7个关键过程变量:液压和冷却液压力、冷却液和液压油温度、主轴转速、扭矩和切削力,这些变量捕获了与不安全操作条件相关的基本热力行为。混合模型通过分层5倍交叉验证验证,测试精度超过0.98,对行业变异性具有鲁棒性。傅立叶振幅灵敏度测试(FAST)分析提供了透明的、物理上可解释的见解,强调扭矩和液压是潜在工艺危害的主要预测因素,同时揭示了主轴转速和切削力的协同效应。通过结合真实世界的传感器数据、先进的优化和可解释的人工智能,该框架能够主动识别安全关键设备的退化,支持本质上更安全的操作,并解决人工智能在过程安全方面的可信度和可解释性的关键挑战。
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Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries
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