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Definition of a simplified risk assessment methodology for NaTech scenarios triggered by tornado 龙卷风引发的NaTech情景的简化风险评估方法的定义
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105915
Fabrizio Santamato , Clara Iannantuoni , Valentina Busini
Natural catastrophic events affecting technological systems may lead to the release of hazardous materials, giving rise to so-called “NaTech” events. The increasing number of NaTech events observed over recent years, possibly related to climate change, has reinforced interest in and the need to investigate the risk of exposure to natural hazards affecting the process industry. In the literature, most attention has been devoted to accidents triggered by floods and earthquakes, whereas no specific analysis protocols aimed at assessing the risk posed by tornadoes and severe wind gusts on production facilities are currently available. Consequently, the objective of this paper is to fill a gap in NaTech risk assessment by proposing a qualitative methodology for assessing the risk related to tornadoes and severe wind gusts. The proposed approach provides a basis for an objective, although simplified, comparison of both the risk posed by different plants potentially exposed to extreme wind events and the identification of the most critical equipment within a single plant. The analysis, partly based on existing qualitative methods, requires limited resources and data and relies on index-based evaluations.
A screening phase is first carried out by assessing the statistical incidence of the natural event using a European database, followed by the application of a qualitative method for evaluating equipment vulnerability and the consequences of their failure. Although the methodology was initially developed using data from the Italian territory, it can be applied to other countries, as demonstrated by the location sensitivity analysis performed at the end of the case study. The application of the methodology to a real case study showed that vertically developed and exposed assets, such as flare stacks, process columns, and gasoline storage tanks, represent the most critical equipment, consistently associated with medium to high risk levels. The sensitivity analysis, performed by relocating the same plant into different geographical areas, confirmed the robustness of the approach, as highly vulnerable assets remained critical across all locations, while less vulnerable equipment (e.g., pumps and phase separators) exhibited risk levels strongly dependent on local wind hazard conditions. These results demonstrate the capability of the methodology to effectively discriminate among territorial risk levels and to support the identification of installations requiring more detailed quantitative analyses.
影响技术系统的自然灾难性事件可能导致有害物质的释放,从而产生所谓的“NaTech”事件。近年来观察到的可能与气候变化有关的NaTech事件越来越多,这加强了人们对调查影响加工工业的自然灾害风险的兴趣和需要。在文献中,大多数注意力都集中在洪水和地震引发的事故上,而目前没有针对评估龙卷风和猛烈阵风对生产设施造成的风险的具体分析方案。因此,本文的目的是通过提出一种评估龙卷风和强阵风相关风险的定性方法来填补NaTech风险评估的空白。拟议的方法提供了一个客观的基础,尽管简化了,比较可能暴露于极端风事件的不同工厂所构成的风险,并确定单个工厂内最关键的设备。这种分析部分基于现有的定性方法,需要有限的资源和数据,并依赖于基于指数的评价。筛选阶段首先通过使用欧洲数据库评估自然事件的统计发生率来进行,然后应用定性方法评估设备脆弱性及其故障后果。虽然该方法最初是利用意大利领土的数据制定的,但它可以应用于其他国家,正如在案例研究结束时进行的地点敏感性分析所证明的那样。将该方法应用于实际案例研究表明,垂直开发和暴露的资产,如火炬堆、工艺塔和汽油储罐,是最关键的设备,始终处于中至高风险水平。通过将同一工厂搬迁到不同的地理区域进行敏感性分析,证实了该方法的稳健性,因为高度脆弱的资产在所有地点仍然至关重要,而较不脆弱的设备(例如泵和相分离器)的风险水平强烈依赖于当地的风灾条件。这些结果表明,该方法能够有效地区分区域风险水平,并支持确定需要更详细的定量分析的设施。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic risk analysis for emergency repair of sudden natural gas pipeline leakages 天然气管道突发性泄漏应急修复的动态风险分析
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105931
Lei Zhao , Tengda Ge , Qing Zhu , Long Zhao , Zhixiang Xing , Yifei Yan , Weimin Han , Gang Qi
Natural gas pipeline leakages pose significant risks of fire and explosion accidents, often resulting in severe consequences. Developing and applying risk analysis techniques for emergency repairs can effectively mitigate such incidents and minimize losses. However, existing risk analysis models are predominantly static and qualitative, failing to account for the multiple states and dependencies of input events, which increases model uncertainty. Moreover, the probabilities of risk factors are often limited, missing, or unknown, leading to data uncertainty. To address these challenges, this study proposes a dynamic risk analysis model for emergency repair of sudden gas pipeline leakages. A Bayesian network (BN) is used to address model uncertainty, while Hierarchical Bayesian analysis (HBA) and cloud model-based fuzzy set theory (CMFST) are employed to handle data uncertainty. The emergency repair process is divided into four stages, and a fault tree is constructed to identify risk factors, determine their logical relationships, and develop accident scenarios. The fault tree is then mapped into a BN to overcome the limitations of traditional models. To address data scarcity, expert elicitation is integrated into CMFST to derive crisp probabilities that reflect both ambiguity and randomness, while precursor data are employed in HBA to calculate and update crisp probabilities. By combining HBA and CMFST, the most probable risk factors leading to repair failure are identified through the robust inference capabilities of BN. As new observations become available, the probability of repair failure is dynamically updated over time by integrating BN and HBA, enabling continuous risk analysis. The results demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed model, offering a feasible solution for emergency repair risk analysis of sudden gas pipeline leakages under uncertainty.
天然气管道泄漏是引发火灾、爆炸事故的重大隐患,往往造成严重后果。开发和应用紧急维修风险分析技术可以有效地减轻此类事件并将损失降到最低。然而,现有的风险分析模型主要是静态的和定性的,不能考虑输入事件的多种状态和依赖关系,这增加了模型的不确定性。此外,风险因素的概率往往是有限的、缺失的或未知的,导致数据的不确定性。为了解决这些问题,本研究提出了天然气管道突发性泄漏应急修复的动态风险分析模型。采用贝叶斯网络(BN)处理模型的不确定性,采用层次贝叶斯分析(HBA)和基于云模型的模糊集理论(CMFST)处理数据的不确定性。将应急抢修过程分为4个阶段,构建故障树,识别风险因素,确定风险因素之间的逻辑关系,形成事故场景。然后将故障树映射到BN中,以克服传统模型的局限性。为了解决数据稀缺性问题,将专家启发集成到CMFST中以获得反映模糊性和随机性的清晰概率,而在HBA中使用前体数据来计算和更新清晰概率。通过结合HBA和CMFST,通过BN的强大推理能力识别出最可能导致修复失败的风险因素。随着新的观察结果的出现,通过集成BN和HBA,修复失败的概率会随时间动态更新,从而实现持续的风险分析。结果表明该模型的适用性和有效性,为不确定条件下天然气管道突发性泄漏应急修复风险分析提供了可行的解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Optimization method for fire rescue equipment allocation based on fuzzy needs assessment and AnyLogic simulation 基于模糊需求评估和AnyLogic仿真的消防救援设备配置优化方法
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105898
Yi Yang , Jikuo Zhang , Guanxia Zheng , Yun-Ting Tsai
The suitability and rationality of fire and rescue equipment allocation are central to effectively responding to regional fires and emergency operations. However, current fire station equipment deployment in China is largely based on standardized national guidelines, with limited consideration of regional variations and local risk profiles. This study integrates fuzzy set-valued statistics for demand assessment and AnyLogic agent-based modelling for dynamic simulation. This method is based on the Standard for Construction of Urban Fire Station in China. It combines local fire safety risk assessments, disaster and accident risk analyses, and evaluations of existing firefighting equipment to determine the actual needs for firefighting and rescue resources. These factors are then used to derive formulas that calculate both the required quantities and the prioritization of equipment allocation in each region. The result is a customized allocation framework that is adaptable to the unique operational conditions and risks of different regions.
消防和救援设备配置的适宜性和合理性是有效应对区域火灾和应急行动的关键。然而,中国目前的消防站设备部署主要基于标准化的国家指导方针,很少考虑区域差异和当地风险概况。本研究将需求评估的模糊集值统计与动态仿真的AnyLogic智能体建模相结合。该方法依据《中国城市消防站建设标准》。它结合了当地消防安全风险评估、灾害和事故风险分析,以及对现有消防设备的评估,以确定消防和救援资源的实际需求。然后使用这些因素推导出计算所需数量和每个地区设备分配优先级的公式。其结果是一个定制的分配框架,可以适应不同地区独特的操作条件和风险。
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引用次数: 0
Process safety risk assessment against natural disasters: A cross-system scenario analysis perspective 针对自然灾害的过程安全风险评估:一个跨系统场景分析的视角
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105905
Kaixin Shen , Meng Lan , Siqi Du , Yiping Bai , Jialin Wu , Wenguo Weng
The increasing frequency of natural disasters, particularly typhoons, exacerbates safety challenges for the process industry. While prior studies have concentrated on direct physical damage risks, the external risks arising from power system dependence were largely overlooked. One major challenge lies in the computational burden of large-scale scenario sets generated under disaster uncertainties, which makes detailed outage analysis infeasible. As a mainstream solution, existing scenario reduction techniques typically operate from a downstream, consequence-centric perspective (e.g., selecting representatives by damaged-facility counts). Such approaches often overlook the underlying temporal and spatial patterns of typhoon events and limit the suitability of the reduced set for complex risk assessments. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel disaster-centric scenario reduction framework based on a Transformer-based Variational Autoencoder (VAE). The framework leverages a Transformer encoder to capture long-range temporal correlations in typhoon time series and employs the VAE to extract latent patterns, thereby enabling efficient compression of multi-dimensional typhoon scenario collections. A semi-supervised mechanism is integrated to leverage historical extreme cases to strengthen detection of extreme events. A subsequent two-stage strategy, combining anomaly detection and clustering, explicitly retains detected extremes while compressing non-extreme scenarios. Validation demonstrates that the selected representative scenarios effectively preserve the original outage risk distribution while reducing the scenario set by over 70 %. The validated representative set was then integrated with a purpose-built spatiotemporal risk metric, the Outage-Duration-Exceedance Probability (ODEP), to support in-depth analyses of power reliability and backup allocation for industrial parks. A comparison between disaster-induced and random-failure modes reveals significant systemic differences, highlighting the deficiencies of applying random-failure models to disaster-related outage risk assessment in industrial safety. Through this cross-system perspective, the proposed methodology provides an advanced and reliable solution for disaster-related safety risk management in the process industry.
自然灾害,特别是台风的日益频繁,加剧了对加工工业的安全挑战。以往的研究主要集中在电力系统的直接物理损伤风险上,而忽略了电力系统依赖所带来的外部风险。一个主要的挑战是在灾难不确定性下产生的大规模场景集的计算负担,这使得详细的停电分析不可行。作为一种主流解决方案,现有的场景简化技术通常是从下游、以结果为中心的角度来操作的(例如,根据受损设施的数量选择代表)。这种方法往往忽略了台风事件潜在的时间和空间模式,限制了简化集对复杂风险评估的适用性。为了应对这些挑战,本研究提出了一种基于基于变压器的变分自编码器(VAE)的以灾害为中心的场景减少框架。该框架利用Transformer编码器捕获台风时间序列中的长期时间相关性,并使用VAE提取潜在模式,从而能够有效压缩多维台风情景集合。整合半监督机制,利用历史极端案例加强对极端事件的发现。随后的两阶段策略,结合异常检测和聚类,明确保留检测到的极端情况,同时压缩非极端情况。验证表明,所选的代表性场景有效地保留了原始的中断风险分布,同时将场景集减少了70%以上。然后,将验证的代表集与专门构建的时空风险度量,即停电持续时间-超出概率(ODEP)相结合,以支持对工业园区电力可靠性和备用分配的深入分析。灾害与随机失效模式的比较揭示了显著的系统性差异,凸显了将随机失效模型应用于工业安全中与灾害相关的停运风险评估的不足。通过这种跨系统的视角,提出的方法为过程工业中与灾害相关的安全风险管理提供了一种先进而可靠的解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Stage-wise CFD framework for analyzing pipeline Releases: The Satartia CO2 pipeline rupture case study 用于分析管道泄漏的分阶段CFD框架:Satartia CO2管道破裂案例研究
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105929
Chi-Yang Li, Zihao Wang, Tylee L. Kareck, Qingsheng Wang
Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) relies on extensive CO2 pipeline networks, making credible consequence assessment of pipeline failures essential to public safety and project feasibility. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) offers high-fidelity dispersion predictions in complex environments, but end-to-end analyses are often prohibitive due to demanding geometry preparation, discretization requirements, model selection, and computational cost. This work develops a stage-wise CFD framework that partitions the model into: (i) in-pipe depressurization to obtain transient mass flow histories, (ii) near-field jet expansion to approach ambient conditions and define a physically consistent handoff plane, and (iii) far-field atmospheric dispersion over realistic terrain. The framework has been applied to analyze the Satartia CO2 pipeline rupture, while integrating terrain data, contemporaneous meteorology, and pipeline operating parameters. The simulation peaks at 33,316 ppm 9 min after the rupture, slightly above the incident's highest measured value of 28,000 ppm. Additionally, the simulation's 15-min time-averaged maximum (25,319 ppm) indicates the incident did not reach the CO2 Short Term Exposure Limit (STEL). Beyond CO2 pipelines, this framework generalizes to other releases from pipelines where hazards are governed by concentration profiles, providing a reproducible and computationally tractable pathway for consequence modeling in pipeline safety.
碳捕获、利用和封存(CCUS)依赖于广泛的二氧化碳管道网络,对管道故障进行可靠的后果评估对公共安全和项目可行性至关重要。计算流体动力学(CFD)可以在复杂环境中提供高保真度的色散预测,但由于几何准备、离散化要求、模型选择和计算成本的要求,端到端分析往往难以实现。这项工作开发了一个分段CFD框架,该框架将模型划分为:(i)管道内降压以获得瞬态质量流历史,(ii)近场射流膨胀以接近环境条件并定义物理一致的交接平面,以及(iii)远场大气弥散在现实地形上。该框架已应用于分析Satartia CO2管道破裂,同时整合地形数据、同期气象和管道运行参数。破裂后9分钟的模拟峰值为33,316 ppm,略高于事件的最高测量值28,000 ppm。此外,模拟的15分钟平均时间最大值(25,319 ppm)表明该事件未达到二氧化碳短期暴露限值(STEL)。除二氧化碳管道外,该框架还可推广到其他由浓度曲线控制危害的管道释放,为管道安全的后果建模提供了可重复和计算可处理的途径。
{"title":"Stage-wise CFD framework for analyzing pipeline Releases: The Satartia CO2 pipeline rupture case study","authors":"Chi-Yang Li,&nbsp;Zihao Wang,&nbsp;Tylee L. Kareck,&nbsp;Qingsheng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105929","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105929","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) relies on extensive CO<sub>2</sub> pipeline networks, making credible consequence assessment of pipeline failures essential to public safety and project feasibility. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) offers high-fidelity dispersion predictions in complex environments, but end-to-end analyses are often prohibitive due to demanding geometry preparation, discretization requirements, model selection, and computational cost. This work develops a stage-wise CFD framework that partitions the model into: (i) in-pipe depressurization to obtain transient mass flow histories, (ii) near-field jet expansion to approach ambient conditions and define a physically consistent handoff plane, and (iii) far-field atmospheric dispersion over realistic terrain. The framework has been applied to analyze the Satartia CO<sub>2</sub> pipeline rupture, while integrating terrain data, contemporaneous meteorology, and pipeline operating parameters. The simulation peaks at 33,316 ppm 9 min after the rupture, slightly above the incident's highest measured value of 28,000 ppm. Additionally, the simulation's 15-min time-averaged maximum (25,319 ppm) indicates the incident did not reach the CO<sub>2</sub> Short Term Exposure Limit (STEL). Beyond CO<sub>2</sub> pipelines, this framework generalizes to other releases from pipelines where hazards are governed by concentration profiles, providing a reproducible and computationally tractable pathway for consequence modeling in pipeline safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 105929"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146034228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Layout optimization and risk analysis of chemical devices under the synergistic effects of multiple fires 多重火灾协同作用下化工装置布局优化及风险分析
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105866
Di Xiao, Hui-hui Lu, Shu-Yu Chen, Xiang Liu, Jia-Jia Jiang, Jun-Cheng Jiang
In chemical devices, irrational layouts accelerate the propagation of synergistic and domino effects across devices, thereby increasing the severity of accidents. In this paper, the failure probability of each chemical device is estimated by dynamic target device time to failure (ttf) and escalation threshold when synergistic effects of multiple fires are considered. The failure probabilities are further converted into accident damage costs. Then, the optimization model considering the synergistic effects is constructed by combining the other costs. The layout model is solved by combining the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) (PSO-SA) algorithm. Finally, as a case study, ethane, ethanol, and acetic acid tank farm layouts are derived considering synergistic effects and without synergistic effects. When synergistic effects are not considered, the tank layout is more centralized. At the same time, other related costs are reduced while pipeline costs are increased. One of the most hazardous tanks was then selected as the initial tank for accident risk analysis. This work may provide some support for designers in terms of chemical device layout.
在化工设备中,不合理的布局会加速设备间的协同效应和多米诺骨牌效应的传播,从而增加事故的严重性。本文在考虑多场火灾协同效应的情况下,通过动态目标设备失效时间(ttf)和升级阈值估计各化工设备的失效概率。失效概率进一步转化为事故损害成本。然后,结合其他成本,构建考虑协同效应的优化模型。结合模拟退火(SA)算法和粒子群优化(PSO-SA)算法对布局模型进行求解。最后,以乙烷、乙醇和乙酸为例,推导了考虑协同效应和不考虑协同效应的罐区布局。在不考虑协同效应的情况下,坦克布置更加集中。同时降低了其他相关成本,但增加了管道成本。然后选择一个最危险的储罐作为事故风险分析的初始储罐。本工作可为化工设备设计人员提供一定的设计支持。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the coupled flame propagation dynamics of hydrogen/air deflagration in interconnected vessels 互联容器中氢气/空气爆燃耦合火焰传播动力学研究
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105933
Xiaorui Liu , Lixin Cong , Bing Han , Junwei Zhou , Dong Yu
Hydrogen deflagration in interconnected vessels is more destructive than that in isolated vessels. In this study, a three-dimensional transient model of hydrogen/air explosions in an interconnected device was developed using large eddy simulation (LES). The coupling interactions among flame propagation, pre-compression, and backflow phenomenon were systematically investigated, revealing that the pressure piling originates from the flame–flow feedback between the ignition vessel and the secondary vessel. Moreover, the influences of geometric scale and ignition location were investigated. As the volume ratio increases, the peak overpressure in the secondary vessel rises monotonically, reaching 1414 kPa at a ratio of 14:1. The pipe diameter exhibits a negative correlation with the maximum overpressure, whereas increasing pipe length weakens the pre-compression but slightly enhances the peak overpressure. In addition, ignition in the larger vessel leads to a significantly more hazardous explosion than ignition in the smaller vessel.
氢气在相互连接的容器中爆燃比在孤立的容器中更具有破坏性。本文利用大涡模拟技术建立了互联装置中氢气/空气爆炸的三维瞬态模型。系统研究了火焰传播、预压缩和回流现象之间的耦合作用,揭示了压力桩产生于点火容器和二次容器之间的火焰流反馈。此外,还研究了几何尺度和点火位置的影响。随着容积比的增大,二次容器的峰值超压单调上升,达到1414kpa,其比为14:1。管径与最大超压呈负相关,管长的增加会减弱预压缩,但会略微提高峰值超压。此外,在较大的容器中点火会导致比在较小的容器中点火更危险的爆炸。
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引用次数: 0
Tsunami fragility for anchored floating-roof atmospheric tanks 锚定浮顶大气储罐的海啸脆弱性
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105928
Antonio Vitale , Georgios Baltzopoulos , Iunio Iervolino
One of the issues for quantitative risk assessment in the process industry, is incorporating so-called NaTech risk, that is considering the potential consequences of natural hazards, whose impact on facilities can cause accidents such as explosions, fires, or toxic substance release. In this context, this paper explores the behaviour of anchored atmospheric storage tanks under tsunami, with the goal of quantifying their vulnerability via parametric fragility functions. Three archetype tanks with different aspect ratios were considered, while tsunami vulnerability was evaluated for different filling levels. The effects of tsunami-induced pressure on the tanks were calculated numerically following an equivalent-static approach, based on nonlinear analyses of finite element models. Each tank was subjected to various combinations of tsunami inundation levels and increasing flow velocities, obtaining structural response of each tank's steel shell and anchorage system. Parametric tsunami fragility curves were obtained, also with the aid of a site-specific conditional tsunami hazard model, surrogating vector-valued hazard analysis. It was found that the predominant failure mode depends on the aspect ratio and filling level, with emptier tanks being more vulnerable overall. The fragilities were then used to quantify the risk associated with loss of content due to structural failure, and the results were also compared those from existing models.
过程工业中定量风险评估的问题之一是纳入所谓的NaTech风险,即考虑自然灾害的潜在后果,其对设施的影响可能导致爆炸、火灾或有毒物质释放等事故。在此背景下,本文探讨了锚定大气储罐在海啸下的行为,目的是通过参数脆弱性函数量化其脆弱性。考虑了三种不同宽高比的原型水箱,并对不同填充水平的海啸脆弱性进行了评估。在有限元模型非线性分析的基础上,采用等效静力法对海啸压力对储罐的影响进行了数值计算。每个储罐都受到海啸淹没程度和流速增加的各种组合,得到了每个储罐钢壳和锚固系统的结构响应。利用特定地点的条件海啸灾害模型,获得了参数化海啸易损性曲线,代表了向量值灾害分析。研究发现,主要的破坏模式取决于长径比和填充水平,空罐总体上更脆弱。然后,脆弱性被用来量化由于结构失效而导致的内容损失的风险,并且结果也与现有模型的结果进行了比较。
{"title":"Tsunami fragility for anchored floating-roof atmospheric tanks","authors":"Antonio Vitale ,&nbsp;Georgios Baltzopoulos ,&nbsp;Iunio Iervolino","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105928","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105928","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>One of the issues for quantitative risk assessment in the process industry, is incorporating so-called NaTech risk, that is considering the potential consequences of natural hazards, whose impact on facilities can cause accidents such as explosions, fires, or toxic substance release. In this context, this paper explores the behaviour of anchored atmospheric storage tanks under tsunami, with the goal of quantifying their vulnerability via parametric fragility functions. Three archetype tanks with different aspect ratios were considered, while tsunami vulnerability was evaluated for different filling levels. The effects of tsunami-induced pressure on the tanks were calculated numerically following an equivalent-static approach, based on nonlinear analyses of finite element models. Each tank was subjected to various combinations of tsunami inundation levels and increasing flow velocities, obtaining structural response of each tank's steel shell and anchorage system. Parametric tsunami fragility curves were obtained, also with the aid of a site-specific conditional tsunami hazard model, surrogating vector-valued hazard analysis. It was found that the predominant failure mode depends on the aspect ratio and filling level, with emptier tanks being more vulnerable overall. The fragilities were then used to quantify the risk associated with loss of content due to structural failure, and the results were also compared those from existing models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 105928"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146076971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Electrochemical performance and thermal stability of Co3O4 modified high nickel ternary cathode materials Co3O4改性高镍三元正极材料的电化学性能和热稳定性
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105901
Yan Tang , Jia-Ping Zhao , Lin-Jie Xie , Qi-Tong Ke , Chen Liang , Jun-Cheng Jiang , An-Chi Huang
LiNixCoyMn1-x-yO2 (NCM, x > 0.6) is a high-nickel ternary cathode material extensively utilized in the renewable energy sector due to its cost-effectiveness and high energy density. Nonetheless, its utilization is constrained by structural instability, interfacial side reactions, and thermal safety concerns. This investigation involved the application of varying concentrations of Co3O4 onto the surface of NCM for modification purposes. The influence of coating quantity on the thermal safety and electrochemical performance of the material was examined in conjunction with morphological characterization, electrochemical testing, and thermal safety assessment. The findings indicate that Co3O4 coating acts as a physical barrier to isolate NCM from the electrolyte, diminish lithium-nickel intermixing, and improve the structural stability of the material. Electrochemical tests revealed that the 1 % Co3O4-coated NCM delivered superior cycling stability. After 200 cycles at 0.2C, the capacity retention rate reached 82.85 %, which was 16 % higher than the pristine NCM (66.85 %), and the discharge specific capacity at 3C is 133.3 mAh/g. Thermal analysis results indicate that Co3O4 coating increases the initial temperature of thermal runaway in NCM material. In summary, a modest Co3O4 coating can synergistically optimize the electrochemical performance and safety of high nickel ternary NCM materials by refining surface structure, promoting interface charge transmission, and improving thermal stability.
LiNixCoyMn1-x-yO2 (NCM, x > 0.6)是一种高镍三元正极材料,因其具有成本效益和高能量密度而广泛应用于可再生能源领域。然而,它的使用受到结构不稳定性、界面副反应和热安全问题的限制。本研究涉及在NCM表面应用不同浓度的Co3O4进行改性。结合形貌表征、电化学测试和热安全性评价,考察了涂层量对材料热安全性和电化学性能的影响。结果表明,Co3O4涂层作为物理屏障将NCM与电解质隔离,减少了锂镍混合,提高了材料的结构稳定性。电化学测试表明,1% co3o4涂层的NCM具有优异的循环稳定性。在0.2C下循环200次后,容量保持率达到82.85%,比原始NCM的66.85%提高了16%,在3C下的放电比容量为133.3 mAh/g。热分析结果表明,Co3O4涂层提高了NCM材料热失控的初始温度。综上所述,适度的Co3O4涂层可以通过改善高镍三元NCM材料的表面结构、促进界面电荷传输和提高热稳定性来协同优化其电化学性能和安全性。
{"title":"Electrochemical performance and thermal stability of Co3O4 modified high nickel ternary cathode materials","authors":"Yan Tang ,&nbsp;Jia-Ping Zhao ,&nbsp;Lin-Jie Xie ,&nbsp;Qi-Tong Ke ,&nbsp;Chen Liang ,&nbsp;Jun-Cheng Jiang ,&nbsp;An-Chi Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105901","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105901","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>LiNi<sub>x</sub>Co<sub>y</sub>Mn<sub>1-x-y</sub>O<sub>2</sub> (NCM, x &gt; 0.6) is a high-nickel ternary cathode material extensively utilized in the renewable energy sector due to its cost-effectiveness and high energy density. Nonetheless, its utilization is constrained by structural instability, interfacial side reactions, and thermal safety concerns. This investigation involved the application of varying concentrations of Co<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub> onto the surface of NCM for modification purposes. The influence of coating quantity on the thermal safety and electrochemical performance of the material was examined in conjunction with morphological characterization, electrochemical testing, and thermal safety assessment. The findings indicate that Co<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub> coating acts as a physical barrier to isolate NCM from the electrolyte, diminish lithium-nickel intermixing, and improve the structural stability of the material. Electrochemical tests revealed that the 1 % Co<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub>-coated NCM delivered superior cycling stability. After 200 cycles at 0.2C, the capacity retention rate reached 82.85 %, which was 16 % higher than the pristine NCM (66.85 %), and the discharge specific capacity at 3C is 133.3 mAh/g. Thermal analysis results indicate that Co<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub> coating increases the initial temperature of thermal runaway in NCM material. In summary, a modest Co<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub> coating can synergistically optimize the electrochemical performance and safety of high nickel ternary NCM materials by refining surface structure, promoting interface charge transmission, and improving thermal stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 105901"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ammonia combustion under oxygen-enriched conditions: Explosion characteristics and chemical kinetic mechanism 富氧条件下氨燃烧:爆炸特性及化学动力学机理
IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105908
Hongwei Li , Cangsu Xu , Xiaolu Li , Francis Oppong , Wenjian Wei , Yuntang Li , Jia Sun
While ammonia combustion in oxygen-enriched conditions offers low-carbon potential, its explosive behavior under practical pressurization and preheating is not yet well understood. To address this gap, this study aims to characterize ammonia explosions in a 1.67 L constant-volume combustion chamber under oxygen-enriched conditions (25 % and 30 %), across equivalence ratios (Φ = 0.8–1.2), initial pressures (Pi = 1–3 bar), and initial temperatures (Ti = 313–373 K). Results indicate that with increasing initial pressure and oxygen concentration, the maximum explosion pressure (Pmax), maximum pressure rise rate (dP/dtmax), and deflagration index (KG) all increase, significantly enhancing explosion intensity. While Pmax, dP/dtmax, and KG exhibit low sensitivity to initial temperature. This simultaneously increases the combustion and explosion heat released rate (HRR) and elevates the maximum heat release rate (HRRmax). The heat loss (Qloss) decreases with rising oxygen concentration and initial temperature, but increases with a higher initial pressure. Chemical kinetics simulations reveal that the reactions R1 (H + O2 ⇔ O + OH), R50 (NH2 + HO2 ⇔ H2NO + OH), R48 (NH2 + NO ⇔ NNH + OH), and R157 (HNOH + NH2 ⇔ H2NN + H2O) are most sensitive to pressure changes, while Pmax exhibits a strong, nearly linear correlation with [H + O + OH]max. The global reaction pathway elucidates that the oxygen-enrichment enhances combustion efficiency and suppresses NOx accumulation by promoting the multi-step oxidation pathway of NH to generate N2. Under high-pressure conditions, the primary pathway for NO consumption shifts from N2O to NNH, thereby generating N2. These findings provide key insights for the safe utilization of oxygen-enriched ammonia combustion.
虽然富氧条件下的氨燃烧具有低碳潜力,但其在实际加压和预热下的爆炸行为尚未得到很好的了解。为了解决这一差距,本研究旨在描述在1.67 L等容燃烧室中,在氧气丰富的条件下(25%和30%),在等效比(Φ = 0.8-1.2),初始压力(Pi = 1-3 bar)和初始温度(Ti = 313-373 K)下的氨爆炸。结果表明:随着初始压力和氧气浓度的增加,最大爆炸压力(Pmax)、最大升压率(dP/dtmax)和爆燃指数(KG)均增加,爆炸强度显著增强;而Pmax、dP/dtmax和KG对初始温度的敏感性较低。这同时增加了燃烧和爆炸热释放率(HRR)和提高了最大热释放率(HRRmax)。热损失(Qloss)随氧浓度和初始温度的升高而减小,随初始压力的升高而增大。化学动力学模拟表明,反应R1 (H + O2⇔O + OH)、R50 (NH2 + HO2⇔H2NO + OH)、R48 (NH2 + NO⇔NNH + OH)和R157 (HNOH + NH2⇔H2NN + H2O)对压力变化最为敏感,而Pmax与[H + O + OH]max表现出强烈的近似线性关系。整体反应途径表明富氧通过促进nh2多步氧化生成N2来提高燃烧效率,抑制NOx积累。在高压条件下,NO消耗的主要途径由N2O转变为nnhh,从而生成N2。这些发现为富氧氨燃烧的安全利用提供了重要的见解。
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Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries
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