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Flame propagation mechanism of methanol fuel spray explosion in a square closed vessel 方形密闭容器中甲醇燃料喷雾爆炸的火焰传播机理
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105408
Enhua Shi, Xingqing Yan, He Liang, Jianfei Ding, Jianliang Yu

Methanol, as an important chemical raw material and clean energy source, easily forms explosive droplet clouds during its production, processing, and usage. Therefore, understanding the evolution and propagation mechanisms of methanol spray explosion flames is crucial for its widespread use and the design of safety measures. This paper studies the flame propagation behavior of methanol spray explosions using a 16.2-L visualized enclosed vessel. The results indicate that the flame structure of methanol spray explosions is similar to that of premixed gas explosions but significantly differs from traditional fossil fuels. It demonstrates homogeneous combustion characteristics primarily governed by the kinetics-controlled regime. As the methanol spray concentration increases, both the maximum flame propagation speed and the maximum explosion pressure initially increase and then decrease, reaching their peak at a concentration of 224.68 g/m3, with values of 9.96 m/s and 0.72 MPa, respectively. The heat losses during combustion exhibit a trend opposite to that of explosion pressure. Numerical simulation results indicate that the concentrations of key radicals such as O, H, and OH vary significantly between lean and rich combustion states. The increase in H radical concentration enhances the elementary reactions that suppress flame temperature and promotes chain-terminating reactions.

甲醇作为一种重要的化工原料和清洁能源,在生产、加工和使用过程中很容易形成爆炸性液滴云。因此,了解甲醇喷雾爆炸火焰的演变和传播机理对于甲醇的广泛使用和安全措施的设计至关重要。本文使用 16.2 升可视化封闭容器研究了甲醇喷雾爆炸的火焰传播行为。结果表明,甲醇喷雾爆炸的火焰结构与预混合气体爆炸的火焰结构相似,但与传统化石燃料的火焰结构有很大不同。它表现出主要受动力学控制机制支配的均匀燃烧特性。随着甲醇喷射浓度的增加,最大火焰传播速度和最大爆炸压力先增大后减小,在浓度为 224.68 g/m3 时达到峰值,分别为 9.96 m/s 和 0.72 MPa。燃烧过程中的热损失与爆炸压力的趋势相反。数值模拟结果表明,O、H 和 OH 等关键自由基的浓度在贫燃和富燃状态下变化很大。H 自由基浓度的增加增强了抑制火焰温度的基本反应,并促进了链终止反应。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental study of the strategy of C6F12O and water mist intermittent spray to suppress lithium-ion batteries thermal runaway propagation C6F12O 和水雾间歇喷雾抑制锂离子电池热失控传播策略的实验研究
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105407
Yongzheng Yao , Yi Jiang , Fang Chen , Yiyuan Wang , Hangyu Zhou , Junchao Zhao

Extinguished lithium-ion battery fires can experience temperature rebound and re-ignition, necessitating proper fire extinguishing and cooling measures for battery safety. This study introduces a novel approach that integrates C6F12O and water mist as a strategy to prevent the spread of thermal runaway in lithium-ion batteries, evaluating the fire-suppression and cooling ability under various intermittent spray modes. The findings demonstrate that the strategy has a stronger suppression effect compared to continuous water spray and could prevent the spread of thermal runaway. C6F12O can extinguish fires in just 1 s. During the cooling phase, the cooling capacity generally decreases with increasing cycle period and duty cycle. Among different cycle periods, C6F12O combined with intermittent water mist spray (DC = 0.5, Pt = 2 s) exhibited the most effective cooling, significantly reducing peak temperature and providing the highest heat suppression. In terms of duty cycles, C6F12O combined with intermittent water mist spray (DC = 0.1, Pt = 20 s) achieved the longest cooling duration, lowering the temperature of Cell #3 to below 50 °C. The combination of C6F12O and intermittent water mist spray rapidly extinguishes flames, maximizes the cooling impact of water mist, and ultimately hinders the propagation of thermal runaway.

熄灭的锂离子电池起火后会出现温度反弹和复燃,因此必须采取适当的灭火和冷却措施以确保电池安全。本研究引入了一种新方法,将 C6F12O 和水雾作为防止锂离子电池热失控蔓延的策略,并评估了各种间歇喷雾模式下的灭火和冷却能力。研究结果表明,与连续喷水相比,该策略具有更强的灭火效果,可防止热失控的扩散。在冷却阶段,冷却能力一般随着循环周期和占空比的增加而降低。在不同的循环周期中,C6F12O 与间歇性水雾喷洒(DC = 0.5,Pt = 2 秒)相结合的冷却效果最佳,可显著降低峰值温度,并提供最高的热抑制能力。就占空比而言,C6F12O 与间歇性水雾喷洒(DC = 0.1,Pt = 20 秒)的组合冷却时间最长,可将 3 号电池的温度降至 50 °C 以下。C6F12O 与间歇性水雾喷射的结合可迅速熄灭火焰,最大限度地发挥水雾的冷却作用,并最终阻止热失控的传播。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of overall human vulnerability to fire-induced domino effects in large-scale plants 评估人类在大规模植物火灾引发的多米诺骨牌效应面前的整体脆弱性
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105405
Han Gao, Yifan Zhang, Hongxing Shi

Large-scale plants, with their concentrated facilities, are at risk of domino effects in the event of escalating accidents. Specifically, the fire-induced domino effects can have considerable consequences. The prevalent probit model is inherently limited to capturing the synergistic effects of multiple fires, thereby constraining the assessment of the overall consequences subject to domino effects. Therefore, this paper introduces a novel numerical method that considers the cumulative effect of all escalation vectors, employing the concept of ‘residual thermal dose’. Monte Carlo simulations were used to model the uncertainties related to effective mitigation measures. Subsequently, we developed two formulas to assess overall human vulnerability to domino effects, providing a visualisation of potential consequences through vulnerability maps. We validated the merits and applicability of our methodology through a case study of a 50-tank oil storage plant. The proposed method can facilitate vulnerability assessment of domino accidents within large-scale plants and identification of critical hazard installations, thereby supporting risk assessment and security management.

大型工厂由于设施集中,一旦事故升级,就有可能产生多米诺骨牌效应。具体来说,火灾引发的多米诺骨牌效应可能会造成严重后果。普遍采用的概率模型在捕捉多起火灾的协同效应方面存在固有的局限性,从而限制了对多米诺效应整体后果的评估。因此,本文采用 "剩余热剂量 "的概念,引入了一种考虑所有升级向量累积效应的新型数值方法。蒙特卡罗模拟用于模拟与有效缓解措施相关的不确定性。随后,我们开发了两个公式来评估人类对多米诺骨牌效应的整体脆弱性,并通过脆弱性地图提供了潜在后果的可视化。我们通过对一个 50 个储油罐的储油厂进行案例研究,验证了我们的方法的优点和适用性。所提出的方法有助于对大型工厂内的多米诺骨牌事故进行脆弱性评估,并确定关键危险设施,从而为风险评估和安全管理提供支持。
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引用次数: 0
A Physics-of-Failure (PoF) model-based Dynamic Bayesian Network for considering the aging of safety barriers in the risk assessment of industrial facilities 在工业设施风险评估中考虑安全屏障老化问题的基于故障物理(PoF)模型的动态贝叶斯网络
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105402
Stefano Marchetti , Francesco Di Maio , Enrico Zio

In this work, a novel Physics-of-Failure (PoF) model-based framework is proposed for accounting for the aging of safety barriers in the risk assessment of industrial facilities. A PoF model of aging is integrated into the barriers fragility models to provide fragility surfaces as functions of both the hazard magnitude and the barrier age. Such modelling is integrated in a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) for the risk assessment. The proposed framework is applied to a case study of a chemical facility exposed to Natural hazard-induced Technological (NaTech) risk due to earthquakes. The results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the framework.

在这项工作中,提出了一种基于失效物理模型(PoF)的新型框架,用于在工业设施风险评估中考虑安全屏障的老化问题。老化的 PoF 模型被集成到安全屏障脆性模型中,以提供脆性表面,作为危险程度和安全屏障年龄的函数。这种模型被集成到动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)中,用于风险评估。所提出的框架被应用于一个案例研究,该案例研究的对象是一个面临地震引发的自然灾害诱发的技术(NaTech)风险的化工设施。结果证明了该框架的可行性和有效性。
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引用次数: 0
A technical review on quantitative risk analysis for hydrogen infrastructure 氢基础设施定量风险分析技术综述
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105403
Parth Patel , Vikram Garaniya , Til Baalisampang , Ehsan Arzaghi , Rouzbeh Abbassi , Fatemeh Salehi

This paper outlines the challenges and opportunities involved in developing a safe and sustainable hydrogen infrastructure. The growing global energy demand and environmental impacts of fossil fuels have sparked interest in alternative energy sources. Hydrogen, as an environmentally friendly and sustainable energy carrier, offers a promising solution. However, the widespread adoption of hydrogen technologies faces significant safety and data reliability challenges. This paper reviews existing literature on hydrogen safety, encompassing hydrogen leak diffusion, fire and explosion, hydrogen deflagration to detonation transition (DDT), risk assessments, and mitigation techniques associated with different hydrogen facilities. Multiple approaches, including probabilistic risk analysis, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), experimental measurements, and machine learning algorithms (MLAs), to ensure hydrogen safety are also explored. Existing hydrogen-related accidents are also extensively analysed. Despite the progress in hydrogen safety research, challenges and limitations still exist. These include a lack of reliable data, limited AI applications due to data availability issues, the need for safe and economic hydrogen storage, and the importance of providing personnel with adequate safety awareness and knowledge. Moreover, the article identifies future research opportunities in investigating auto-ignition mechanisms, collecting more experimental data, integrating AI and CFD to investigate hydrogen dispersion behaviour, exploring the sensor's technology, developing inherently safer designs, and studying the integrated impacts of evolving accident scenarios. In conclusion, the paper emphasises the importance of addressing safety challenges to establish a secure and dependable hydrogen infrastructure. It highlights the need for further research to enhance safety protocols, establish robust standards, and support the long-term sustainability goals of the hydrogen industry. The insights provided in this study can contribute to identifying research areas, improving safety measures, and developing future hydrogen infrastructure.

本文概述了发展安全、可持续的氢能基础设施所面临的挑战和机遇。全球日益增长的能源需求和化石燃料对环境的影响引发了人们对替代能源的兴趣。氢作为一种环保和可持续的能源载体,提供了一种前景广阔的解决方案。然而,氢技术的广泛应用面临着安全和数据可靠性方面的巨大挑战。本文回顾了有关氢气安全的现有文献,包括氢气泄漏扩散、火灾和爆炸、氢气爆燃到爆炸的转变(DDT)、风险评估以及与不同氢气设施相关的缓解技术。此外,还探讨了确保氢安全的多种方法,包括概率风险分析、计算流体动力学(CFD)、实验测量和机器学习算法(MLA)。此外,还广泛分析了现有的氢气相关事故。尽管氢气安全研究取得了进展,但挑战和限制依然存在。其中包括缺乏可靠的数据、由于数据可用性问题导致人工智能应用有限、需要安全经济的氢气存储,以及为人员提供足够的安全意识和知识的重要性。此外,文章还指出了未来在以下方面的研究机会:调查自动点火机制、收集更多实验数据、整合人工智能和 CFD 以调查氢气扩散行为、探索传感器技术、开发本质上更安全的设计,以及研究不断变化的事故情景的综合影响。总之,本文强调了应对安全挑战以建立安全可靠的氢基础设施的重要性。它强调了进一步研究的必要性,以加强安全协议,建立健全的标准,并支持氢能产业的长期可持续发展目标。本研究提供的见解有助于确定研究领域、改进安全措施和开发未来的氢能基础设施。
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引用次数: 0
Fundamental experimental analysis of the ignition risk of sparks generated during collisions between small UAV propellers and personal protective equipment 小型无人飞行器螺旋桨与个人防护设备碰撞时产生火花的点火风险基础实验分析
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105397
Kosuke Yoshizaki , Hiroki Igarashi , Miguel Angel Salinas Escamilla , Ayumu Miyahara , Toshiro Hoshi , Kengo Takahashi , Toshiyuki Katsumi , Satoshi Kadowaki , Tetsuya Kimura

Small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are increasingly utilized in a variety of environments, including those containing flammable substances, where the risk of ignition is a significant concern. In this study, we investigate the risk of sparks generated by UAV propeller collisions with personal protective gear to ignite these gases. We utilized a high-speed infrared camera to measure the temperatures of sparks produced during such collisions. The experiments involved collisions between various types of protective gear and rotating propellers, during which spark generation was observed upon impact. The high-speed infrared camera recorded the spark temperatures at the moment of impact. The sparks produced by these collision reached temperatures ranging from 375 [°C] and 900 [°C], exceeding the auto-ignition temperatures of hydrogen, diesel oil, and gasoline vapors. Notably, even protective gear that did not produce visible sparks reached temperatures up to 375 [°C], which surpasses the auto-ignition temperatures of some flammable substances, such as gasoline and kerosene. Based on the experimental results, we discuss the potential risks of igniting hydrogen, diesel oil, gasoline, and kerosene due to propeller collisions with protective equipment.

小型无人驾驶飞行器(UAV)越来越多地应用于各种环境,包括含有易燃物质的环境,在这些环境中,点火风险是一个重大问题。在本研究中,我们调查了无人机螺旋桨与个人防护装备碰撞产生的火花点燃这些气体的风险。我们利用高速红外摄像机测量了碰撞过程中产生的火花温度。实验涉及各类防护装备与旋转螺旋桨之间的碰撞,在碰撞过程中观察到火花的产生。高速红外摄像机记录了碰撞瞬间的火花温度。碰撞产生的火花温度从 375 [°C] 到 900 [°C]不等,超过了氢气、柴油和汽油蒸汽的自燃温度。值得注意的是,即使是没有产生明显火花的防护装备,其温度也高达 375 [°C],超过了汽油和煤油等一些易燃物质的自燃温度。根据实验结果,我们讨论了螺旋桨与防护设备碰撞导致点燃氢气、柴油、汽油和煤油的潜在风险。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamics of fuel-lean and stoichiometric methane-air explosion venting: Experiments and simulations 燃料贫乏和稳定计量甲烷-空气爆炸排气的动力学:实验和模拟
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105404
Furkan Kodakoglu , Hamed F. Farahani , Ali S. Rangwala , V'yacheslav Akkerman

The computational explosion venting analyzer (EVA), a zero-dimensional (0D) model based on the conservation of mass and energy, is being developed to model centrally- and rear-ignited explosions. For this purpose, a series of explosion venting experiments in a cylinder with vent areas of 132.7, 86.6, 67.9 cm2 (corresponding to the vent area ratios of K=0.47,0.31,0.24, respectively) is performed. Two equivalence ratios of ϕ=0.8 and 1 are considered to represent the fuel-lean and stoichiometric methane-air mixtures, respectively. The dynamics of explosions is studied through the observation of flame propagation and pressure measurements. In rear ignition experiments, laminar, so-called “finger flame” propagation is observed, while in the case of center ignition, a flame initially expands spherically and then is pulled by the vent, acquiring a half-elliptical and half-spherical shape. The peak pressures obtained from rear ignition exceed their counterparts in the center ignition experiments. The EVA is compared with the experimental matrix. No turbulence is implemented in stoichiometric simulations, and slight turbulence has been accounted for in the lean mixture simulations. It is found that the large vent, generally, imposes more disturbances on the flame shape and the fuel-lean mixtures are more prone to the diffusional-thermal instabilities. It is shown that such a simple numerical tool, as the EVA is, can estimate a complicated problem such as pressure evolution resulted from a vented gas explosion.

计算爆炸排气分析器(EVA)是一种基于质量和能量守恒的零维(0D)模型,目前正在开发中,用于模拟集中点火和后点火爆炸。为此,在排气面积分别为 132.7、86.6 和 67.9 平方厘米(对应的排气面积比分别为 K=0.47、0.31 和 0.24)的圆柱体中进行了一系列爆炸排气实验。考虑了两个等效比 ϕ=0.8 和 1,分别代表燃料稀释和甲烷-空气混合物的化学计量。通过观察火焰传播和压力测量来研究爆炸动力学。在后点火实验中,观察到的是层流,即所谓的 "指状火焰 "传播,而在中心点火的情况下,火焰最初呈球形膨胀,然后被通风口拉动,形成半椭圆形和半球形。后点火获得的峰值压力超过了中心点火实验中的峰值压力。EVA 与实验矩阵进行了比较。在计量模拟中没有湍流,而在贫油混合模拟中考虑了轻微的湍流。结果发现,大排气孔通常会对火焰形状造成更多干扰,而燃料贫乏混合物则更容易产生扩散-热不稳定性。结果表明,像 EVA 这样简单的数值工具可以估算出复杂的问题,如排出气体爆炸产生的压力演变。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation of fire combustion process in valve hall of DC converter power station 直流换流站阀厅火灾燃烧过程模拟
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105401
Haowei Yao , Mengyang Xing , Zhen Lou , Haitao Su , Huaitao Song , Yang Zhang , Yongzhuang Cai

To investigate the fire danger of the valve hall, a 3D numerical model of the DC converter substation's valve hall is created by using the fire dynamics simulator (FDS) program and the fire burning process of the valve hall is simulated. In particular, the procedure of simulating the fire burning in the valve hall under various fire source positions is accomplished by varying certain parameters. The smoke spreading process, ambient temperature field, and heat release rate curve under various fire source placements are compared based on the results of the simulation calculations. The findings demonstrate that under various fire source locations, the valve hall's combustion process varies as well. This study compares the time for smoke to fill the entire valve hall, the maximum temperature within the valve hall, and the maximum fire source heat release efficiency in different fire scenes. The results indicate that in fire scenes where the fire source is closer to the middle position, the time for smoke to spread throughout the valve hall is shorter, and the fire source heat release rate is higher. Conversely, in fire scenes where the fire source is closer to the edge, the maximum temperature within the valve hall is higher. The numerical simulation of the valve hall in this DC converter station assessed the hazards under different fire scenes, aiming to maximize the safety of the valve hall. It provides reliable guidance for maximizing the safety of the valve hall and facilitating firefighting and rescue efforts, thus protecting personal safety and minimizing property damage.

为了研究阀厅的火灾危险性,使用火灾动力学模拟器(FDS)程序创建了直流换流变电站阀厅的三维数值模型,并模拟了阀厅的火灾燃烧过程。其中,通过改变某些参数来模拟不同火源位置下阀厅的火灾燃烧过程。根据模拟计算的结果,比较了不同火源位置下的烟雾扩散过程、环境温度场和热释放率曲线。研究结果表明,在不同的火源位置下,阀厅的燃烧过程也各不相同。本研究比较了不同火灾现场中烟雾充满整个阀厅的时间、阀厅内的最高温度以及最大火源热释放效率。结果表明,在火源更靠近中间位置的火灾现场,烟雾弥漫整个阀厅的时间更短,火源热释放率更高。相反,在火源更靠近边缘的火灾现场,阀厅内的最高温度更高。该直流换流站阀厅的数值模拟评估了不同火灾场景下的危险性,旨在最大限度地提高阀厅的安全性。它为最大限度地提高阀厅的安全性和方便灭火救援工作提供了可靠的指导,从而保护了人身安全,最大限度地减少了财产损失。
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引用次数: 0
Failure analysis of a separator under various thermal loading: A numerical study 各种热负荷下分离器的失效分析:数值研究
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105399
Rajeeb Kumar Upadhyay, Pushpendra K. Vishwakarma, Kirti Bhushan Mishra

In the present study, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were carried out on a separator subjected to three different fire scenarios: pool fire, jet fire and fireballs. The empirical models applicable to such plants are not developed and conventional radiation models leads to an overestimation of the heat flux and safety distances. Therefore an alternative tool like CFD along with empirical models is used to model the potential scenarios mentioned above in a model oil and gas separator plant. The developed model were validated by comparing literature data on the flame length, maximum flame temperature and its location above pan surface in case of pool fire and comparing them with literature data. It is found that in case of flame length the deviation from literature data was about 10% and less than 5% for the maximum flame temperature. For jet fire the average surface temperature was 561 K while this value is 423 K in case of pool fire and 317 K for fireballs. When it comes to the radiative flux, an average value of 29 kW/m2 is found for jet fires while this value was only 14 kW/m2 for pool fire and 23 kW/m2 for fireballs. The thermal loads on the separator vessel due to above fire scenarios were also calculated. The obtained value of thermal stresses were around 285 MPa and 600 MPa for pool and jet fires respectively. Thus it can be concluded that from safety point of view jet fires are the most critical one. The results obtained form simulations were also compared with that of data from empirical models.

在本研究中,对分离器进行了计算流体动力学(CFD)模拟,模拟了三种不同的火灾情况:池火、喷射火和火球。适用于此类工厂的经验模型尚未开发,传统的辐射模型会导致高估热通量和安全距离。因此,我们使用 CFD 等替代工具和经验模型来模拟油气分离厂模型中的上述潜在情况。通过比较池火时的火焰长度、最大火焰温度及其在锅表面以上的位置等文献数据,对所开发的模型进行了验证。结果发现,火焰长度与文献数据的偏差约为 10%,火焰最高温度与文献数据的偏差小于 5%。喷射火焰的平均表面温度为 561 K,而池火的平均表面温度为 423 K,火球的平均表面温度为 317 K。在辐射通量方面,喷射火焰的平均值为 29 kW/m2,而池火的平均值仅为 14 kW/m2,火球的平均值为 23 kW/m2。此外,还计算了上述火灾情况对分离器容器造成的热负荷。池火和喷射火的热应力值分别约为 285 兆帕和 600 兆帕。因此可以得出结论,从安全角度来看,喷射火灾是最严重的火灾。模拟结果还与经验模型的数据进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
Application of Functional Resonance Analysis and fuzzy TOPSIS to identify and prioritize factors affecting newly emerging risks 应用功能共振分析法和模糊 TOPSIS 法识别影响新出现风险的因素并确定其优先次序
IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105400
Mostafa Pouyakian , Hamid Reza Azimi , Riccardo Patriarca , Elham Keighobadi , Mojtaba Fardafshari , Saber Moradi Hanifi

Conventional safety analyses in complex systems like air separation units (ASUs) often attributed accidents to linear, deterministic causes, such as operator error. However, acknowledging the intricate interdependence of process components necessitates a shift towards recognizing the complexity of incident causation. This study proposes a novel model that integrates Function Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) and fuzzy logic analysis to address this growing need. The model facilitates the identification of emerging risks and assesses the impact of influential factors within a mixed qualitative and quantitative framework. The FRAM method is initially employed to identify emerging risks within the ASU. Subsequently, fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making methods are utilized to establish the relationships and weightage of influential factors. Data collection encompasses semi-structured interviews, direct observation, process workflow analysis, and the involvement of a panel of engineers and operators from the investigated ASU. Utilizing FMV software for FRAM analysis, functions associated with air compression, distribution, and storage exhibit high resonance. This signifies substantial variability and a heightened potential for incidents or deviations in these functions and higher-level tasks. Furthermore, Fuzzy TOPSIS analysis reveals that education and experience emerge as the most impactful factors governing newly emerging risk. This model demonstrates significant merit for risk assessment and incident investigation. Its non-linear and dynamic nature empowers the proactive identification and examination of processes, incidents, and emerging risks before deviations or accidents occur.

空气分离装置(ASU)等复杂系统的传统安全分析通常将事故归因于线性、确定性原因,如操作员失误。然而,由于认识到工艺组件之间错综复杂的相互依存关系,因此有必要转向认识事故成因的复杂性。本研究提出了一种整合了功能共振分析法(FRAM)和模糊逻辑分析的新型模型,以满足这一日益增长的需求。该模型有助于识别新出现的风险,并在定性和定量混合框架内评估影响因素的影响。首先采用故障排除与评估方法来识别 ASU 中的新风险。随后,利用模糊多标准决策方法确定影响因素的关系和权重。数据收集包括半结构式访谈、直接观察、流程工作流分析,以及来自被调查 ASU 的工程师和操作员小组的参与。利用 FMV 软件进行 FRAM 分析,与空气压缩、分配和存储相关的功能表现出高度共振。这表明在这些功能和更高层次的任务中存在很大的可变性和发生事故或偏差的可能性。此外,模糊 TOPSIS 分析表明,教育和经验是影响新出现风险的最重要因素。该模型在风险评估和事故调查方面具有重要价值。它的非线性和动态性质有助于在偏差或事故发生之前主动识别和检查流程、事件和新出现的风险。
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Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries
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