Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-07DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107968
Brenda Brito, Jeferson Almeida
This paper examines how federal and state land laws in the Brazilian Amazon create incentives that benefit private actors illegally occupying public lands, who subsequently seek legalization through land titling. Throughout this process, they invade public lands, deforest the area to signal occupation, request land titles to governmental agencies, and often lobby to modify land laws in favor of title acquisition. While existing scholarship has focused primarily on federal land policies, this study provides a systematic assessment of land laws in all nine Amazonian states, which are particularly relevant given that between 40 % and 60 % of undesignated public land in the region falls under state jurisdiction. Here, we identify five structural incentives embedded in current land legislation that favor the persistence of public land encroachment: (i) the absence or extension of cut-off dates for the occupation of public lands that can be titled; (ii) the possibility of issuing titles over illegally deforested areas; (iii) the weakness or lack of requirements to restore environmental damage prior to titling; (iv) the pricing mechanisms that substantially undervalues public land; and (v) the limited coordination among land agencies, resulting in an increased risk of titles being issued in areas with other land claims’ priorities according to the law. Our results highlight how current land laws contribute to inefficient allocation of public land, fiscal losses, and continued deforestation. These findings provide empirical support for policy debates in Brazil focused on aligning land laws with environmental protection, climate commitments, and more efficient management of public assets.
{"title":"Legal incentives for public land grabbing via deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon","authors":"Brenda Brito, Jeferson Almeida","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107968","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107968","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how federal and state land laws in the Brazilian Amazon create incentives that benefit private actors illegally occupying public lands, who subsequently seek legalization through land titling. Throughout this process, they invade public lands, deforest the area to signal occupation, request land titles to governmental agencies, and often lobby to modify land laws in favor of title acquisition. While existing scholarship has focused primarily on federal land policies, this study provides a systematic assessment of land laws in all nine Amazonian states, which are particularly relevant given that between 40 % and 60 % of undesignated public land in the region falls under state jurisdiction. Here, we identify five structural incentives embedded in current land legislation that favor the persistence of public land encroachment: (i) the absence or extension of cut-off dates for the occupation of public lands that can be titled; (ii) the possibility of issuing titles over illegally deforested areas; (iii) the weakness or lack of requirements to restore environmental damage prior to titling; (iv) the pricing mechanisms that substantially undervalues public land; and (v) the limited coordination among land agencies, resulting in an increased risk of titles being issued in areas with other land claims’ priorities according to the law. Our results highlight how current land laws contribute to inefficient allocation of public land, fiscal losses, and continued deforestation. These findings provide empirical support for policy debates in Brazil focused on aligning land laws with environmental protection, climate commitments, and more efficient management of public assets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107968"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146134352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-06DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107973
Chendi Yang , Hao Huang , Sian Meng , Yunjie Zhang , Jacqueline T.Y. Lo , Rui Ma
Commercial vitality, or the ability of urban commercial facilities to attract and maintain human activity, is a key indicator of economic performance, urban vitality, and spatial equity. Current research focuses on commercial agglomeration areas, overlooking dispersed activities within heterogeneous urban forms. This study develops a typology-driven spatial framework for block commercial vitality (BCV) prediction through spatial feature engineering that integrates multi-source urban data with neighborhood catchment area (NCA). Shenzhen serves as the empirical setting, with real-time population flow data as a BCV proxy. Five categories of spatial features, demographic exposure, commercial gravity, small business intensity, transportation accessibility, and spatial configuration, were extracted to delineate the urban physical environment. Urban blocks were classified into nine morphological types by the Spacematrix method to place predictions in context. Three prediction models were compared, and the Random Forest regression performed best in predictive accuracy in empirical analysis. Feature importance analysis identified catering density, permanent population, and commercial gravity as the most influential predictors, while transportation and spatial configuration exert secondary influence. The framework indicates a stronger predictive performance for future-oriented block types compared to transitional mid-rise types. It provides methodological insights that are potentially transferable to other urban contexts to guide commercial planning, zoning optimization, and target renewal interventions at the block level.
{"title":"Typology-based spatial modeling of urban block commercial vitality: Evidence from Shenzhen for land use planning","authors":"Chendi Yang , Hao Huang , Sian Meng , Yunjie Zhang , Jacqueline T.Y. Lo , Rui Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107973","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107973","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Commercial vitality, or the ability of urban commercial facilities to attract and maintain human activity, is a key indicator of economic performance, urban vitality, and spatial equity. Current research focuses on commercial agglomeration areas, overlooking dispersed activities within heterogeneous urban forms. This study develops a typology-driven spatial framework for block commercial vitality (BCV) prediction through spatial feature engineering that integrates multi-source urban data with neighborhood catchment area (NCA). Shenzhen serves as the empirical setting, with real-time population flow data as a BCV proxy. Five categories of spatial features, demographic exposure, commercial gravity, small business intensity, transportation accessibility, and spatial configuration, were extracted to delineate the urban physical environment. Urban blocks were classified into nine morphological types by the Spacematrix method to place predictions in context. Three prediction models were compared, and the Random Forest regression performed best in predictive accuracy in empirical analysis. Feature importance analysis identified catering density, permanent population, and commercial gravity as the most influential predictors, while transportation and spatial configuration exert secondary influence. The framework indicates a stronger predictive performance for future-oriented block types compared to transitional mid-rise types. It provides methodological insights that are potentially transferable to other urban contexts to guide commercial planning, zoning optimization, and target renewal interventions at the block level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107973"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146134353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-06DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107966
Jonas Böhm , Thomas de Witte , Frank Offermann , Uwe Latacz-Lohmann
Agrivoltaic systems have been advocated for their potential to reduce land use conflicts, as they enable the combined production of food and electricity on the same land. This paper determines the additional costs of agrivoltaic systems over conventional ground-mounted photovoltaic facilities on farmland and relates the extra cost to the amount of land saved, yielding an estimate of the costs of preserving farmland with agrivoltaics. The analysis is based upon extensive data collection from project developers as a basis of the cost calculations for various agrivoltaic and ground-mounted photovoltaic systems and system sizes. Net returns from farming under the agrivoltaic systems are credited against the costs of these systems. The levelized costs of electricity generation (LCOE) of agrivoltaic systems are significantly higher than those of ground-mounted photovoltaic systems. Depending on the agrivoltaic system type and scale, the additional costs range from 4 % to 148 % of the LCOE of ground-mounted photovoltaic systems. Agricultural production usually has little impact on overall profitability of the AV systems examined. When relating the additional costs of the agrivoltaic systems to the saved farmland area, the annual costs of preserving one hectare of land range between €8000 and €26,000 per ha and year for medium-sized, low-mounted agrivoltaic systems and between €42,000 and €75,000 per ha and year for high-mounted agrivoltaic systems. This is many times over the potential net returns from agricultural production on the land area saved. Given these findings, the meaningfulness of financial support for agrivoltaics, as offered by the German government, must be called into question.
{"title":"Preserving agricultural land with agrivoltaic – But at what cost? An economic analysis of different agrivoltaic systems in Germany","authors":"Jonas Böhm , Thomas de Witte , Frank Offermann , Uwe Latacz-Lohmann","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107966","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107966","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agrivoltaic systems have been advocated for their potential to reduce land use conflicts, as they enable the combined production of food and electricity on the same land. This paper determines the additional costs of agrivoltaic systems over conventional ground-mounted photovoltaic facilities on farmland and relates the extra cost to the amount of land saved, yielding an estimate of the costs of preserving farmland with agrivoltaics. The analysis is based upon extensive data collection from project developers as a basis of the cost calculations for various agrivoltaic and ground-mounted photovoltaic systems and system sizes. Net returns from farming under the agrivoltaic systems are credited against the costs of these systems. The levelized costs of electricity generation (LCOE) of agrivoltaic systems are significantly higher than those of ground-mounted photovoltaic systems. Depending on the agrivoltaic system type and scale, the additional costs range from 4 % to 148 % of the LCOE of ground-mounted photovoltaic systems. Agricultural production usually has little impact on overall profitability of the AV systems examined. When relating the additional costs of the agrivoltaic systems to the saved farmland area, the annual costs of preserving one hectare of land range between €8000 and €26,000 per ha and year for medium-sized, low-mounted agrivoltaic systems and between €42,000 and €75,000 per ha and year for high-mounted agrivoltaic systems. This is many times over the potential net returns from agricultural production on the land area saved. Given these findings, the meaningfulness of financial support for agrivoltaics, as offered by the German government, must be called into question.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107966"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146134354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-01-29DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107954
Saul Ngarava
This study examines the relationship between agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄)) and sectoral development in the United Kingdom (UK) using an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)–motivated framework. Annual data from 1990 to 2022 were analysed using autoregressive distributed lag error‑correction models (ARDL‑ECM). The analysis incorporated agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA), Total Factor Productivity (TFP), and the Agricultural Trade Balance (ATB). Descriptive trends show that livestock is the dominant source of agricultural GHG emissions and that both N₂O and CH₄ emissions have declined over the study period while agricultural GVA and productivity (TFP) have grown. However, despite visual indications of nonlinear patterns, analysis, including long‑run marginal effects, the Lind–Mehlum (SLM) test, and flexible Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), find no statistical evidence supporting an inverted‑U EKC for either N₂O or CH₄. N₂O emissions remain positively associated with agricultural GVA across the income range, while CH₄ shows weak and statistically uncertain negative income elasticities. Dynamic impulse‑response and variance‑decomposition results further highlight the central role of productivity and technological progress in reducing emissions over time, with TFP emerging as the dominant long‑run driver of N₂O variation and agricultural GVA explaining the largest share of CH₄ forecast variance. Overall, the findings indicate that emissions reductions in UK agriculture have been driven not by autonomous income‑based EKC mechanisms but by structural change, productivity gains, and policy interventions. These results underscore the need for targeted, emission‑specific mitigation strategies rather than reliance on income‑led environmental transitions within the agricultural sector.
{"title":"Exploring the Kuznets hypothesis in the United Kingdom’s agricultural sector","authors":"Saul Ngarava","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107954","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107954","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the relationship between agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄)) and sectoral development in the United Kingdom (UK) using an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)–motivated framework. Annual data from 1990 to 2022 were analysed using autoregressive distributed lag error‑correction models (ARDL‑ECM). The analysis incorporated agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA), Total Factor Productivity (TFP), and the Agricultural Trade Balance (ATB). Descriptive trends show that livestock is the dominant source of agricultural GHG emissions and that both N₂O and CH₄ emissions have declined over the study period while agricultural GVA and productivity (TFP) have grown. However, despite visual indications of nonlinear patterns, analysis, including long‑run marginal effects, the Lind–Mehlum (SLM) test, and flexible Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), find no statistical evidence supporting an inverted‑U EKC for either N₂O or CH₄. N₂O emissions remain positively associated with agricultural GVA across the income range, while CH₄ shows weak and statistically uncertain negative income elasticities. Dynamic impulse‑response and variance‑decomposition results further highlight the central role of productivity and technological progress in reducing emissions over time, with TFP emerging as the dominant long‑run driver of N₂O variation and agricultural GVA explaining the largest share of CH₄ forecast variance. Overall, the findings indicate that emissions reductions in UK agriculture have been driven not by autonomous income‑based EKC mechanisms but by structural change, productivity gains, and policy interventions. These results underscore the need for targeted, emission‑specific mitigation strategies rather than reliance on income‑led environmental transitions within the agricultural sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107954"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146072181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-09DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107967
Chen Liang , Yang Zhou
Ensuring food security and conserving terrestrial ecosystems are two critical objectives of the United Nations’ 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. China implemented 14 major land consolidation projects (MLCPs) between 2007 and 2013 to support national food security. However, evidence on the socio-economic and ecological impacts of MLCPs remains scarce, especially causal identification based on large-sample sizes. This study develops a nature-based land consolidation (NBLC) analytical framework and evaluates the agricultural and ecological impacts of the MLCPs using a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model combined with spatial analysis, drawing on high-resolution panel data from Chinese townships spanning 2000–2022. The results reveal that MLCPs foster dual benefits for sustainable agricultural production and ecosystem protection, resulting in a 13.6 % increase in total agricultural output and a 4.2 % rise in per-unit output, along with a 1.6 % increase in NDVI within the project areas. NBLC has alleviated the issues of water scarcity and land degradation in northern regions, fostering sustainable agricultural development there. Through the reclamation of abandoned farmland and the development of high-standard farmland, MLCPs have achieved efficient land resource utilization, resulting in mutually beneficial outcomes for agricultural production and ecological protection. These findings provide evidence-based guidance for sustainable land governance under increasing global farmland pressures.
{"title":"Co-benefits of major land consolidation projects for sustainable agricultural production and ecosystem protection in China","authors":"Chen Liang , Yang Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107967","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107967","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ensuring food security and conserving terrestrial ecosystems are two critical objectives of the United Nations’ 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. China implemented 14 major land consolidation projects (MLCPs) between 2007 and 2013 to support national food security. However, evidence on the socio-economic and ecological impacts of MLCPs remains scarce, especially causal identification based on large-sample sizes. This study develops a nature-based land consolidation (NBLC) analytical framework and evaluates the agricultural and ecological impacts of the MLCPs using a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model combined with spatial analysis, drawing on high-resolution panel data from Chinese townships spanning 2000–2022. The results reveal that MLCPs foster dual benefits for sustainable agricultural production and ecosystem protection, resulting in a 13.6 % increase in total agricultural output and a 4.2 % rise in per-unit output, along with a 1.6 % increase in NDVI within the project areas. NBLC has alleviated the issues of water scarcity and land degradation in northern regions, fostering sustainable agricultural development there. Through the reclamation of abandoned farmland and the development of high-standard farmland, MLCPs have achieved efficient land resource utilization, resulting in mutually beneficial outcomes for agricultural production and ecological protection. These findings provide evidence-based guidance for sustainable land governance under increasing global farmland pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107967"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Blockchain technology has emerged as a disruptive force with the potential to support the securitisation of tenure in land administration systems (LAS). Like in every new and emerging technologies, ‘trust and acceptance’ play significant roles in stakeholders’ intention to either embrace or reject the adoption of blockchain technology in LAS. While previous research on the topic has placed considerable attention on the potential of adopting blockchain for improving LAS, limited attention has been placed on understanding the user-centric dimensions of trust and acceptance. To address this gap, this study conducted a systematic literature review on the user-centric dimensions of trust and acceptance influencing blockchain technology adoption for LAS. The analysis employs two complementary theoretical frameworks: the Multilevel Trust (MLT) framework to categorize trust factors, and the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) to guide the analysis of acceptance factors. The results categorize the key factors influencing stakeholders' trust into three dimensions: trust in technology (data privacy and control, security), trust in administrative processes (traceability and transparency), and trust in institutions (regulation and legal compliance), while performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions emerge as the key factors that influence stakeholders’ acceptance. Drawing upon these findings, a conceptual framework was developed to illustrate the interrelationship between the trust and acceptance factors influencing stakeholders’ intention to either embrace or reject the adoption of blockchain for LAS. This research contributes to the literature on emerging technology adoption for LAS, which may help land administration stakeholders take suitable measures to address stakeholder concerns and thereby promote blockchain technology adoption.
{"title":"User-centric dimensions of trust and acceptance in blockchain adoption for land administration systems: A systematic literature review","authors":"Opeyemi Ajayi , Riekkinen Kirsikka , Oluwafemi Adekola","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107944","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107944","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Blockchain technology has emerged as a disruptive force with the potential to support the securitisation of tenure in land administration systems (LAS). Like in every new and emerging technologies, ‘trust and acceptance’ play significant roles in stakeholders’ intention to either embrace or reject the adoption of blockchain technology in LAS. While previous research on the topic has placed considerable attention on the potential of adopting blockchain for improving LAS, limited attention has been placed on understanding the user-centric dimensions of trust and acceptance. To address this gap, this study conducted a systematic literature review on the user-centric dimensions of trust and acceptance influencing blockchain technology adoption for LAS. The analysis employs two complementary theoretical frameworks: the Multilevel Trust (MLT) framework to categorize trust factors, and the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) to guide the analysis of acceptance factors. The results categorize the key factors influencing stakeholders' trust into three dimensions: trust in technology (data privacy and control, security), trust in administrative processes (traceability and transparency), and trust in institutions (regulation and legal compliance), while performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions emerge as the key factors that influence stakeholders’ acceptance. Drawing upon these findings, a conceptual framework was developed to illustrate the interrelationship between the trust and acceptance factors influencing stakeholders’ intention to either embrace or reject the adoption of blockchain for LAS. This research contributes to the literature on emerging technology adoption for LAS, which may help land administration stakeholders take suitable measures to address stakeholder concerns and thereby promote blockchain technology adoption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 107944"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146000533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-12DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107924
Dan Huang , Yanchi Lu , Zhaomin Tong , Bowen Pang , Yaolin Liu , Yanfang Liu
Against the dual backdrop of escalating global grain security risks and deepening urban-rural development transformation, coordinating grain security with increased farmer income has become a critical challenge in land management. The non-grain production of farmland (NGPF) phenomenon epitomizes this contradiction. Current governance approaches primarily focus on managing existing issues and implementing universal policies, lacking proactive prediction and forward-looking warning for potential occurrence zones and the resulting grain security risks. Therefore, this study developed an integrated analytical framework comprising “probability prediction—risk assessment—categorical governance.” Taking Hubei Province as a case study, the research area was divided into three zones based on agricultural functional differences: the urban agriculture zone (UAZ), the major grain-producing zone (MGZ), and the characteristic agricultural products zone (CAPZ), with research conducted separately for each zone. Specifically, this study first predicted the NGPF probability using the Maxent model and analyzed its driving mechanisms. Subsequently, it combined the probability-loss assessment model to quantify the potential risks of NGPF to unit and total grain yields. Finally, for medium-to-high-risk areas, the SOM+k-means clustering method was employed to identify dominant driver bundles and formulate differentiated governance strategies accordingly. The results indicate that NGPF exhibits significant regional heterogeneity: UAZ is primarily driven by irrigation convenience (16.4 %), mechanization level (16.5 %), and aggregation index (14.6 %), exhibiting the highest probability of NGPF conversion; CAPZ is primarily driven by the combined effects of distance from town (13.6 %), proportion of aging agricultural labor force (17.6 %), and percentage of people with contracted management rights (10 %), ranking second in probability; MGZ is jointly driven by mechanization level (27.1 %), percentage of permanent basic farmland (17.6 %), proportion of aging agricultural labor force (12.3 %), and average educational attainment of the rural population (11.7 %), exhibiting the lowest probability. Risk analysis reveals that unit grain yield loss risk follows the pattern of UAZ > MGZ > CAPZ. MGZ, characterized by large farmland sizes and a high multiple crop index, exhibits the most pronounced total grain yield loss risk, with a 30 m raster scale mean of 115.59 kg, followed by UAZ (103.82 kg) and CAPZ (68.55 kg). Based on these findings, the study further subdivided medium-to-high-risk farmland across the three agricultural zones into spatial governance units with clearly dominant risk mechanisms, proposing targeted governance measures. This framework provides support for the forward-looking and differentiated governance of NGPF.
{"title":"Governing non-grain production of farmland: A differentiated strategy based on grain production loss risk","authors":"Dan Huang , Yanchi Lu , Zhaomin Tong , Bowen Pang , Yaolin Liu , Yanfang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107924","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107924","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Against the dual backdrop of escalating global grain security risks and deepening urban-rural development transformation, coordinating grain security with increased farmer income has become a critical challenge in land management. The non-grain production of farmland (NGPF) phenomenon epitomizes this contradiction. Current governance approaches primarily focus on managing existing issues and implementing universal policies, lacking proactive prediction and forward-looking warning for potential occurrence zones and the resulting grain security risks. Therefore, this study developed an integrated analytical framework comprising “probability prediction—risk assessment—categorical governance.” Taking Hubei Province as a case study, the research area was divided into three zones based on agricultural functional differences: the urban agriculture zone (UAZ), the major grain-producing zone (MGZ), and the characteristic agricultural products zone (CAPZ), with research conducted separately for each zone. Specifically, this study first predicted the NGPF probability using the Maxent model and analyzed its driving mechanisms. Subsequently, it combined the probability-loss assessment model to quantify the potential risks of NGPF to unit and total grain yields. Finally, for medium-to-high-risk areas, the SOM+k-means clustering method was employed to identify dominant driver bundles and formulate differentiated governance strategies accordingly. The results indicate that NGPF exhibits significant regional heterogeneity: UAZ is primarily driven by irrigation convenience (16.4 %), mechanization level (16.5 %), and aggregation index (14.6 %), exhibiting the highest probability of NGPF conversion; CAPZ is primarily driven by the combined effects of distance from town (13.6 %), proportion of aging agricultural labor force (17.6 %), and percentage of people with contracted management rights (10 %), ranking second in probability; MGZ is jointly driven by mechanization level (27.1 %), percentage of permanent basic farmland (17.6 %), proportion of aging agricultural labor force (12.3 %), and average educational attainment of the rural population (11.7 %), exhibiting the lowest probability. Risk analysis reveals that unit grain yield loss risk follows the pattern of UAZ > MGZ > CAPZ. MGZ, characterized by large farmland sizes and a high multiple crop index, exhibits the most pronounced total grain yield loss risk, with a 30 m raster scale mean of 115.59 kg, followed by UAZ (103.82 kg) and CAPZ (68.55 kg). Based on these findings, the study further subdivided medium-to-high-risk farmland across the three agricultural zones into spatial governance units with clearly dominant risk mechanisms, proposing targeted governance measures. This framework provides support for the forward-looking and differentiated governance of NGPF.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Article 107924"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145956928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-10DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107918
Zhiqiang Cheng, Jinyang Cai
Land investment plays a critical role in sustainable land use and agricultural development, but little is known about how to effectively promote land investment. Using data from the China Household Finance Survey, this study explores how land transfer interventions stimulate farmers’ land investment. This study finds that land transfer interventions significantly enhance investment in leased land. The main reason for this is that interventions have increased the level of formalization of land transfers, including payment of rental, cash transactions, and defined lease durations. Meanwhile, interventions extended the duration of land leases and enlarged the areas leased. Moreover, interventions during the negotiation and pricing stages, supervisory stages, and governmental involvement exert the most pronounced influence on land investment. Finally, this study also finds that interventions increase household expenditures on fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds except for leased land. The findings above offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to refine land institutions and promote land investments.
{"title":"How does land transfer intervention promote farmers’ land investment? Evidence from China","authors":"Zhiqiang Cheng, Jinyang Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107918","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Land investment plays a critical role in sustainable land use and agricultural development, but little is known about how to effectively promote land investment. Using data from the China Household Finance Survey, this study explores how land transfer interventions stimulate farmers’ land investment. This study finds that land transfer interventions significantly enhance investment in leased land. The main reason for this is that interventions have increased the level of formalization of land transfers, including payment of rental, cash transactions, and defined lease durations. Meanwhile, interventions extended the duration of land leases and enlarged the areas leased. Moreover, interventions during the negotiation and pricing stages, supervisory stages, and governmental involvement exert the most pronounced influence on land investment. Finally, this study also finds that interventions increase household expenditures on fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds except for leased land. The findings above offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to refine land institutions and promote land investments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Article 107918"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107921
Xiaoan Wang , Lei Hu , Jingyi Wang , Zhibo Zhang
Mega sport event bidding increasingly requires strong environmental credentials, sustainability governance, and urban competitiveness. This study investigates 70 Olympic and FIFA World Cup bids from 1998 to 2020, using 15 environmental indicators spanning air, water, vegetation, and waste domains. Applying logistic regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost models, we identify key environmental determinants and employ SHAP analysis for interpretability. Results show that air quality is the most decisive signal, followed by water, vegetation, and waste management has gained importance since London 2012. Ante-event performance carries the greatest weight, and Olympic bids emphasize broad, legacy-oriented plans, whereas FIFA bids focus more on localized air pollution and sanitation. Host countries generally outperformed unsuccessful bidders in post-event indicators, confirming the value of credible pre-bid commitments. The findings underscore that environmental performance is now critical to event governance and provide actionable guidance for countries to integrate sustainability into bidding strategies and urban development.
{"title":"Environmental performance and urban land competitiveness: Insights from mega sport event bidding outcomes","authors":"Xiaoan Wang , Lei Hu , Jingyi Wang , Zhibo Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107921","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107921","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mega sport event bidding increasingly requires strong environmental credentials, sustainability governance, and urban competitiveness. This study investigates 70 Olympic and FIFA World Cup bids from 1998 to 2020, using 15 environmental indicators spanning air, water, vegetation, and waste domains. Applying logistic regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost models, we identify key environmental determinants and employ SHAP analysis for interpretability. Results show that air quality is the most decisive signal, followed by water, vegetation, and waste management has gained importance since London 2012. Ante-event performance carries the greatest weight, and Olympic bids emphasize broad, legacy-oriented plans, whereas FIFA bids focus more on localized air pollution and sanitation. Host countries generally outperformed unsuccessful bidders in post-event indicators, confirming the value of credible pre-bid commitments. The findings underscore that environmental performance is now critical to event governance and provide actionable guidance for countries to integrate sustainability into bidding strategies and urban development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Article 107921"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-09DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107923
Haimeng Liu , Jieyang Xiong , Tao Song
Understanding virtual urban land flows is crucial for assessing the environmental impacts of urbanization (SDG 11), optimizing land resource use (SDG 12), and addressing regional inequalities (SDG 10). This study employs an environmentally extended multi-regional input–output model to quantify interprovincial virtual urban land flows in China for 2007, 2012, and 2017, links them to actual urban built-up land to reveal the urban human-nature relationship. Social network analysis is used to reveal the overall spatial structure of flow networks and identify critical provinces, while Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation is applied to explore key drivers. The results show that virtual urban land embedded in interprovincial trade has become a structurally important component of China’s urbanization, with flows expanding rapidly and accounting for about 30 % of national urban built-up land. On average, 46.58 % of provinces’ urban land demand is met by other provinces. Flows are predominantly domestic and spatially uneven, with net transfers from eastern and northeastern provinces to central and western regions, where virtual land consumption in many cases exceeds local built-up land. The virtual land network has become denser and more interconnected over time, yet clear east–west and north–south gradients in centrality persist. Economic development, urban population density, migration, and fiscal capacity promote virtual land flows, whereas technological innovation reduces them, and spatial distance plays a relatively weak role. This study sheds new light on the telecoupled dynamics linking regional trade and urban expansion. The methodological framework is readily transferable to other countries and regions, and the findings offer practical guidance for policymakers seeking to optimize regional urbanization, industrial layout, and urban land management in China.
{"title":"Characteristics and key drivers of virtual urban land flows in China","authors":"Haimeng Liu , Jieyang Xiong , Tao Song","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107923","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107923","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding virtual urban land flows is crucial for assessing the environmental impacts of urbanization (SDG 11), optimizing land resource use (SDG 12), and addressing regional inequalities (SDG 10). This study employs an environmentally extended multi-regional input–output model to quantify interprovincial virtual urban land flows in China for 2007, 2012, and 2017, links them to actual urban built-up land to reveal the urban human-nature relationship. Social network analysis is used to reveal the overall spatial structure of flow networks and identify critical provinces, while Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation is applied to explore key drivers. The results show that virtual urban land embedded in interprovincial trade has become a structurally important component of China’s urbanization, with flows expanding rapidly and accounting for about 30 % of national urban built-up land. On average, 46.58 % of provinces’ urban land demand is met by other provinces. Flows are predominantly domestic and spatially uneven, with net transfers from eastern and northeastern provinces to central and western regions, where virtual land consumption in many cases exceeds local built-up land. The virtual land network has become denser and more interconnected over time, yet clear east–west and north–south gradients in centrality persist. Economic development, urban population density, migration, and fiscal capacity promote virtual land flows, whereas technological innovation reduces them, and spatial distance plays a relatively weak role. This study sheds new light on the telecoupled dynamics linking regional trade and urban expansion. The methodological framework is readily transferable to other countries and regions, and the findings offer practical guidance for policymakers seeking to optimize regional urbanization, industrial layout, and urban land management in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Article 107923"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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