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Land-use conversion from agricultural production areas to built-up areas in the Philippines for decades 2000–2020: Spatial analysis and policy implications 菲律宾2000-2020年从农业生产区到建成区的土地利用转换:空间分析和政策影响
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107874
Arnan B. Araza , Wesley Gagarin , Ma. Christina Corales , Chad Patrick Osorio , Marlo D. Mendoza , Rico Ancog
Rapid urban expansion in the Philippines has intensified the pressure on agricultural lands, raising concerns about national food security and environmental sustainability. This study presents a national-scale spatial analysis of agricultural land conversion to built-up areas between 2003 and 2019, using high-resolution Earth Observation (EO) maps. The map validation based on expert-labeled reference data yielded 81% user accuracy, while correlation and bivariate mapping revealed a strong relationship (r = 0.89) between cropland loss (ha) and built-up expansion (ha), with hotspots identified in Central and Southern Mindanao, and Central Luzon. Conversions showed a moderate association with agricultural land area (r = 0.38), which may correspond to provinces with large areas for high-value crop production with intact economic value. Around 31% (3,228 out of 10,397 ha) of converted cropland to built-up fell within legally protected zones under the Network of Protected Areas for Agriculture and Agro-Industrial Development (NPAAAD), indicating possible governance and enforcement gaps. Almost 80% of the conversions within NPAAAD are mostly agro-industrial and alluvial lands characterized as high-value and road-accessible, thus being vulnerable also to urban and industrial projects. The findings underscore the urgency of enacting the National Land Use Act (NaLUA) to institutionalize spatial planning and safeguard agricultural lands from unregulated conversion. The findings of this study alongside mapping of specific land-uses following the conversions nationwide are deemed helpful inputs for mandated local land use planning.
菲律宾快速的城市扩张加剧了对农业用地的压力,引发了对国家粮食安全和环境可持续性的担忧。本研究利用高分辨率地球观测(EO)地图,对2003年至2019年期间全国范围内的农业用地转化为建成区进行了空间分析。基于专家标记参考数据的地图验证获得81%的用户精度,而相关和二元制图显示耕地损失(ha)与建筑扩张(ha)之间存在很强的关系(r = 0.89),热点地区位于棉兰老岛中南部和吕宋岛中部。转换率与农业用地面积呈中等相关性(r = 0.38),这可能对应于高价值作物生产面积大且经济价值完整的省份。大约31%(10,397公顷中有3,228公顷)的耕地转化为建筑用地属于农业和农业工业发展保护区网络(NPAAAD)下的法律保护区内,这表明可能存在治理和执法方面的差距。在NPAAAD内,几乎80%的转换主要是农工和冲积土地,其特点是高价值和道路可达,因此也容易受到城市和工业项目的影响。研究结果强调了制定《国家土地使用法》(NaLUA)的紧迫性,以使空间规划制度化,并保护农业用地免受无管制的转换。这项研究的结果以及在全国范围内进行土地转换后绘制的具体土地用途地图,被认为对强制性的地方土地使用规划有帮助。
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引用次数: 0
The significance of food-water-land-ecosystem nexus to management decisions of national nature reserves 食物-水-土地-生态系统关系对国家级自然保护区管理决策的意义
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107905
Xianglong Xing , Peng Zhang , Shouzheng Tong , Mingye Zhang , Yuan Xin , Yu An , Geng Cui , Walian Du , Zhuo Yang
The coupling relationship within the food-water-land-ecosystem (FWLE) nexus is critical for the sustainable development of national nature reserves (NNRs). However, there is limited understanding of the trade-offs and synergies within this nexus. Consequently, the challenge of establishing a coordinated FWLE nexus has become increasingly urgent. This study takes the Momoge National Nature Reserve (MNNR) as a case study, utilizing past-present-future land use data, combined with the InVEST model and statistical data, to explore the dynamic evolution, driving factors and interrelationships within the FWLE nexus. The findings reveal significant transformations in land use patterns, including fluctuations observed in grassland and barren land areas, contrasted with a deceleration in the rate of forest and wetland reduction. Notably, the impervious land expanded by 10,463 ha, leading to a decline in habitat quality (HQ) and an increase in water yield (WY). Meanwhile, cropland areas exhibit annual fluctuations but consistently record increasing crop yields. Human activities are identified as the primary driver behind these changes. In scenarios emphasizing future ecological protection and restoration, both crop production (CP) increase, while the percentage of areas with great HQ reaches 39 % and 56 %, respectively, representing ideal FWLE nexus trends. Conversely, in scenarios prioritizing economic development, CP reaches its peak, but this progress coincides with a corresponding decline in HQ, reducing the proportion of areas with favorable HQ to 27 %. Based on these findings, we have constructed a robust FWLE implementation framework that emphasizes effective control of human activities within the protected area and improves ecological quality through measures such as hydrological connectivity and ecological restoration. The insights gleaned from this research hold significant implications for the formulation of management policies governing these invaluable conservation areas.
食物-水-土地-生态系统之间的耦合关系对国家级自然保护区的可持续发展至关重要。然而,人们对这种关系中的权衡和协同作用的理解有限。因此,建立一个协调的和平与和平关系的挑战已变得日益紧迫。本研究以Momoge国家级自然保护区(MNNR)为例,利用过去-现在-未来土地利用数据,结合InVEST模型和统计数据,探讨FWLE关系的动态演变、驱动因素和相互关系。调查结果显示,土地利用模式发生了重大变化,包括在草地和荒地地区观察到的波动,而森林和湿地的减少速度则有所减缓。不透水土地面积增加了10463 ha,导致生境质量(HQ)下降,产水量(WY)增加。与此同时,耕地面积呈现出年度波动,但作物产量持续增长。人类活动被认为是这些变化背后的主要驱动因素。在强调未来生态保护和恢复的情景下,两种作物产量(CP)均有所增加,大HQ区比例分别达到39% %和56% %,代表理想的FWLE nexus趋势。相反,在优先发展经济的情景下,CP达到峰值,但这一进展与总部的相应下降相一致,总部有利的地区比例降至27% %。基于这些发现,我们构建了一个健全的FWLE实施框架,强调有效控制保护区内的人类活动,并通过水文连通性和生态恢复等措施提高生态质量。从这项研究中收集到的见解对制定管理这些宝贵保护区的管理政策具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Unraveling the impacts of free trade zones on urban innovation intensity: Evidence from China 自由贸易区对城市创新强度的影响:来自中国的证据
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107901
Qixuan Wang , Jie Ren , Hangying Su , Zirui Chen , Mi Diao
Land use efficiency of urban innovation is critical for sustainable development in transition economies with land constraints. In this context, Free Trade Zones (FTZs) have emerged as a key policy instrument for enhancing innovation performance. Drawing on a panel dataset from 284 Chinese cities between 2010 and 2020, this study investigates the impacts of FTZs on urban innovation intensity, measured by innovation output per unit of construction land, using a difference-in-differences (DID) framework. To mitigate endogeneity concerns, we apply propensity score matching to construct balanced treatment and control groups for the spatial DID models, enabling estimation of both direct and spillover effects of FTZs. The results show that FTZs significantly enhance innovation intensity in host cities, but generate negative spatial spillover effects on their neighboring cities. These findings are robust across a series of robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the effects vary across regions, FTZ sizes, and administrative levels of cities. Mechanism analysis indicates that FTZs promote innovation through both government-led interventions and market-driven mechanisms. The findings highlight the need for policymakers to not only promote the diffusion of FTZ benefits within host cities but also mitigate the widening regional innovation disparities through coordinated planning and intercity policy alignment.
城市创新的土地利用效率对于存在土地约束的转型经济体的可持续发展至关重要。在此背景下,自由贸易区(FTZs)已成为提高创新绩效的关键政策工具。基于2010年至2020年中国284个城市的面板数据集,本研究采用差分差分(DID)框架,以单位建设用地创新产出衡量自贸区对城市创新强度的影响。为了减轻内生性问题,我们运用倾向得分匹配来构建空间DID模型的平衡处理组和对照组,从而能够估计自贸区的直接效应和溢出效应。结果表明,自贸区显著提升了东道国城市的创新强度,但对周边城市产生了负的空间溢出效应。这些发现在一系列稳健性测试中是稳健性的。异质性分析进一步揭示了区域、保税区规模和城市行政级别的差异。机制分析表明,自由贸易区通过政府主导和市场驱动两种机制促进创新。研究结果表明,政策制定者不仅需要促进自由贸易区利益在东道城市内的扩散,还需要通过协调规划和城际政策协调来缓解不断扩大的区域创新差距。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial evolution characteristics and driving factors of urban forms in the Colombo Metropolitan Area (CMA), Sri Lanka: A geo-informatics approach 斯里兰卡科伦坡都市圈城市形态空间演化特征及驱动因素:地理信息学方法
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107900
Dilnu Chanuwan Wijesinghe , Pingjun Sun , Zhigao Liu
Understanding the development patterns of urban form is crucial for efficient planning in expanding metropolitan areas. This study examines the spatial evolution of urban form in the Colombo Metropolitan Area (CMA) from 1995 to 2024, utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing technology. Key metrics include the expansion index, landscape index, compactness index, center-of-gravity shift, and standard deviation ellipse (SDE). Logistic regression was applied to identify influencing factors, while FRAGSTAT assessed landscape metrics. The Findings indicated that CMA’s urban form developed by 292.96 km2, with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 3.75 %, signifying rapid development. Spatial evolution extended beyond the core city, with edge expansion accounting for 95.03 % of new development (127.57 km²) between 2014 and 2024. While infill development increased, urban sprawl remained dominant. Landscape fragmentation fluctuated, reflecting dynamic spatial changes. SDE analysis revealed significant expansion in 2014, followed by a slight contraction by 2024, with continued northeastern expansion. The urban center shifted from the northwest to the northeast, marking a transition from the core city to other urban areas, such as Sri Jayewardenepura Kotte and Kaduwela. A logistic regression model identified six key drivers of urban form spatial evolution, highlighting the interplay among socioeconomic, physical, and environmental factors. Moreover, the Colombo Port City has emerged as a key catalyst for urban form transformation, significantly enhancing connectivity and extending its influence across the CMA. The findings support efficient infrastructure development, sustainable land use planning, and a well-rounded approach to urban form and spatial development in the CMA.
了解城市形态的发展模式对于扩大都市圈的有效规划至关重要。利用地理信息系统(GIS)和遥感技术,研究了1995 - 2024年科伦坡大都市区城市形态的空间演变。关键指标包括扩展指数、景观指数、密实度指数、重心偏移和标准差椭圆(SDE)。采用Logistic回归确定影响因素,同时FRAGSTAT评估景观指标。结果表明:CMA城市形态发展292.96 km2,年增长率(AGR)为3.75 %,发展迅速;2014 - 2024年,边缘扩展占新开发的95.03% %(127.57 km²)。虽然填充开发增加,但城市蔓延仍占主导地位。景观破碎化具有波动性,反映了动态的空间变化。SDE分析显示,2014年显著扩张,到2024年略有收缩,东北地区继续扩张。城市中心从西北向东北转移,标志着从核心城市向其他城市地区的过渡,如Sri Jayewardenepura Kotte和Kaduwela。逻辑回归模型确定了城市形态空间演变的六个关键驱动因素,突出了社会经济、自然和环境因素之间的相互作用。此外,科伦坡港口城已成为城市形态转型的关键催化剂,显著增强了连通性,并扩大了其在整个CMA的影响力。研究结果支持高效的基础设施发展、可持续的土地利用规划以及全面的城市形态和空间发展方法。
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引用次数: 0
Balancing grassland ecology and herders’ economic benefits: The impact of Grassland ecological compensation policy in Inner Mongolia 平衡草原生态与牧民经济利益:内蒙古草原生态补偿政策的影响
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107904
Chunjun Shi , Ping Li , Jingpeng Guo
The Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy (GECP) in China is a herder-centered payment for ecosystem services program designed to restore grassland ecosystems while improving herders’ livelihoods. However, long-term empirical studies assessing the effects of GECP across different grassland types and its socioeconomic impacts on herders remain limited. Based on field surveys conducted among herders in Inner Mongolia in 2010, 2015, and 2018, this study evaluates the policy’s impact on grassland ecosystems and livestock production by Commonality Analysis and Partial Least Squares Path Modeling. The results showed that: (1) The livestock scale significantly decreased only in the meadow steppe, while notable changes in livestock structure were observed across all three grassland types; (2) Sheep or goat populations showed a great decline and large livestock (e.g., cattle) numbers exhibited minimal changes across three grassland types; (3) The policy induced notable shifts in herders’ income and cost structures, with livestock income decreasing by 25.7–45.5 % and non-farm income increasing by 19.7–30.5 %; (4) Although GECP significantly enhanced grassland productivity, its ecological benefits may be partially offset by other socio-economic factor like rising livestock prices, as herders adjust grazing and production strategies in response to market dynamics. These findings suggest that GECP not only improved grassland quality but also reshaped herders' production practices and livelihood strategies. To ensure sustainable grassland management, future policy adjustments should account for regional heterogeneity by considering key factors such as grassland carrying capacity, livestock market fluctuations, and climate variability. Adopting differentiated management strategies tailored to different grassland types will be crucial for balancing ecological conservation and herder welfare.
中国草原生态补偿政策(GECP)是一项以牧民为中心的生态系统服务支付项目,旨在恢复草原生态系统,改善牧民生计。然而,评估GECP在不同草地类型中的效果及其对牧民的社会经济影响的长期实证研究仍然有限。在2010年、2015年和2018年对内蒙古牧民进行实地调查的基础上,利用共性分析和偏最小二乘路径模型,评价了政策对草原生态系统和畜牧业生产的影响。结果表明:(1)畜禽规模仅在草甸草原显著减少,3种草地类型的畜禽结构均发生了显著变化;(2)三种草地类型的绵羊或山羊种群数量均呈现显著下降趋势,大型牲畜(如牛)种群数量变化不大;(3)政策导致牧民收入和成本结构发生显著变化,畜牧收入减少25.7 ~ 45.5% %,非农收入增加19.7 ~ 30.5% %;(4)尽管GECP显著提高了草原生产力,但由于牧民根据市场动态调整放牧和生产策略,其生态效益可能会被其他社会经济因素(如牲畜价格上涨)部分抵消。这些结果表明,GECP不仅改善了草地质量,而且重塑了牧民的生产实践和生计策略。为了确保可持续的草原管理,未来的政策调整应考虑到区域异质性,考虑草原承载能力、牲畜市场波动和气候变率等关键因素。针对不同类型的草地采取差异化的管理策略,是平衡生态保护与牧民福利的关键。
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引用次数: 0
Restoring South Asian Forests: Key lessons, research gaps and the way forward 恢复南亚森林:主要经验教训、研究差距和前进方向
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107884
Sharif A. Mukul , Tek Maraseni , Sunil Nautiyal
South Asia, home to over two billion people, is the world’s most populous and densely inhabited region. Its forests play vital roles in carbon storage, biodiversity conservation, water regulation, and rural livelihoods but face mounting pressures from population growth, agriculture, urbanization, and climate change. Heavy dependence on fuelwood further accelerates degradation. In response, countries across the region have initiated ambitious restoration programs aligned with global commitments and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. Here, we synthesized the articles published in the Special Issue (SI) titled – Restoring South Asian Forests, covering India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan. The regional and country-level case studies presented in this SI underscore critical lessons. Nepal’s 65-year restoration experience highlights the value of decentralization, community engagement, and recognition of forest multifunctionality. Post-2015 earthquake recovery demonstrates that natural regeneration often outperforms costly artificial interventions. In India, individual-led initiatives, like Padmashree Jadav Payeng’s Brahmaputra sandbar forest, illustrate how sustained, science-guided efforts can deliver outsized ecological and societal benefits. Research from Bangladesh and Pakistan further stresses the importance of secure land tenure, inclusive governance, and community participation for lasting restoration success. Despite progress, knowledge gaps persist regarding long-term ecological and socio-economic effects and the comparative effectiveness of restoration approaches. Advancing restoration in South Asia will require integrated, participatory, and landscape-level strategies that merge indigenous knowledge, science, and advanced monitoring to deliver enduring biodiversity, carbon, and livelihood co-benefits.
南亚人口超过20亿,是世界上人口最多、居住最密集的地区。它的森林在碳储存、生物多样性保护、水资源调节和农村生计方面发挥着至关重要的作用,但面临着来自人口增长、农业、城市化和气候变化的越来越大的压力。对薪材的严重依赖进一步加速了退化。作为回应,该地区各国启动了雄心勃勃的恢复计划,与全球承诺和联合国生态系统恢复十年相一致。在这里,我们综合了发表在特刊(SI)题为“恢复南亚森林”的文章,涵盖了印度、尼泊尔、孟加拉国和巴基斯坦。本专题中提出的区域和国家层面的案例研究强调了重要的经验教训。尼泊尔65年的恢复经验凸显了权力下放、社区参与和承认森林多功能性的价值。2015年后的地震恢复表明,自然再生往往优于昂贵的人工干预。在印度,像Padmashree Jadav Payeng的布拉马普特拉沙洲森林这样的个人主导的倡议,说明了持续的、科学指导的努力如何能够带来巨大的生态和社会效益。孟加拉国和巴基斯坦的研究进一步强调了保障土地权属、包容性治理和社区参与对持久恢复成功的重要性。尽管取得了进展,但关于长期生态和社会经济影响以及恢复方法的相对有效性的知识差距仍然存在。推进南亚的恢复将需要综合的、参与性的和景观层面的战略,将本土知识、科学和先进的监测结合起来,以实现持久的生物多样性、碳排放和生计的共同效益。
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引用次数: 0
Land grabbing and armed conflict in Colombia (1874–2019): A historical analysis from a political ecology perspective 哥伦比亚的土地掠夺和武装冲突(1874-2019):从政治生态学角度的历史分析
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107891
Jose Michael Villarreal-Escallón , Aeleen Jessika Córdoba-Campaña , Luis Felipe Verdugo-Escallón
This article employs a political ecology perspective to analyze the relationship between land grabbing and the internal armed conflict (IAC) in Colombia between 1874 and 2019, focusing on the power relations that have shaped the agrarian structure. The present study employs a historical-comparative method and qualitative documentary review to examine the dynamics of territorial accumulation and the mechanisms that enabled these processes. The findings indicate that land grabbing is not a recent phenomenon, nor is it solely a result of the 2008 crisis. Rather, it is a structural process rooted in longstanding privatization policies, colonization strategies, and territorial control. During the IAC, forced displacement emerged as the predominant mechanism for land accumulation, thereby reinforcing patterns of dispossession and rural property concentration. A salient finding is the pivotal role played by national actors - political and economic elites, state institutions, and illegal armed groups in driving these dynamics. This study makes a significant contribution to the ongoing discourse on the nexus between conflict, territory, and power. It underscores the role that structural inequalities play in perpetuating cycles of violence and exclusion. It is imperative to comprehend these historical dynamics to formulate policies that promote territorial justice and reconciliation in post-agreement Colombia.
本文采用政治生态学的视角来分析1874年至2019年期间哥伦比亚土地掠夺与内部武装冲突(IAC)之间的关系,重点关注塑造农业结构的权力关系。本研究采用历史比较方法和定性文献综述来考察领土积累的动态和使这些过程成为可能的机制。研究结果表明,土地掠夺不是最近才出现的现象,也不仅仅是2008年金融危机的结果。相反,这是一个植根于长期私有化政策、殖民战略和领土控制的结构性过程。在IAC期间,被迫流离失所成为土地积累的主要机制,从而加强了剥夺和农村财产集中的模式。一个突出的发现是,国家行为体——政治和经济精英、国家机构和非法武装团体——在推动这些动态方面发挥了关键作用。本研究对当前关于冲突、领土和权力之间关系的讨论做出了重大贡献。它强调了结构性不平等在使暴力和排斥循环永久化方面所起的作用。必须了解这些历史动态,以便制定促进协议后哥伦比亚领土正义与和解的政策。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Research on early warning and control measures for arable land resource security” [Land Use Policy 128 (2023), 106601] “耕地资源安全预警与控制措施研究”的勘误表[土地利用政策128 (2023),106601]
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107885
Xueqing Sun , Pengcheng Xiang , Kexin Cong
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引用次数: 0
Urban land use prediction and construction effectiveness assessment supporting SDG 11.3.1 and regional planning goals 支持可持续发展目标11.3.1和区域规划目标的城市土地利用预测与建设效益评价
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107893
Ze Zhang , Weiguo Jiang , Ziyan Ling , Xudong Guo , Jie Song , Zhijie Xiao , Xiaogan Yin
Urban land use serves as the fundamental foundation for human survival and development, providing essential natural resources. Simulation is an important tool for assessing the impacts of urban planning and construction new urban. To support policy implementation for the development of the Xiongan New Area and promote sustainable urban management, we use the "Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom" (DIKW model) as a framework for predicting future land spatial changes considering sustainable development of urban planning. We developed a novel New Urban Multi-objective Land Use Prediction (NUMLUP) method, integrating a Genetic Algorithm (GA), Multi-Objective Planning (MOP), and the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent (CLUES) model. Using this approach, we obtained urban land spatial distribution data for three scenarios. Urban land spatial distribution data for the Historical Continuation Scenario (HCS), Policy Planning Scenario (PPS), and Planned Sustainable development scenario (PSDS) were obtained. To evaluate Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11.3.1 and Regional Planning Goals (RPGs), we assessed 19 consecutive years of construction effectiveness—covering both past (2017–2023) and future (2023–2035) periods under the three scenarios. The dataset achieved a multi-year overall accuracy (OA) exceeding 0.87 and a kappa index above 0.83, demonstrating strong integration of the NUMLUP model. The area of built up gradually increased, and the wetland was mainly dominated by Baiyangdian, which declined significantly from 2017 to 2023. In the three scenarios, from 2023 to 2035, the expansion of the built-up slows down, and the degree of change in the HCS area is minimal. Under the PPS, forest and wetland areas underwent the most drastic changes, with overall improvement rates ranked as PPS > PSDS > HCS. In contrast, the PSDS led to a significant increase in grassland. Under PSDS, grassland increased significantly. The construction of the three scenarios from 2017 to 2035 has achieved certain results. While PPS and PSDS closely aligned with planning targets, the HCS would fail to meet the 2035 requirements. The PSDS also prompted adjustments in the regional policy’s spatial layout. There were adjustments to the spatial layout of the policy as a result of PSDS. The LCRPGR is consistently greater than 1 from 2023 to 2035, reflecting a rational and comfortable urban plan that provides land use to meet population growth and demand.Furthermore, the PSDS introduced reasonable modifications to the regional plan’s spatial configuration. Our research provides robust support for monitoring sustainable urban development and implementing regional policies.
城市土地利用是人类生存和发展的根本基础,提供了必不可少的自然资源。模拟是评估城市规划和新建城市影响的重要工具。为了支持雄安新区发展政策的实施,促进城市可持续管理,我们采用“数据-信息-知识-智慧”(DIKW)模型作为框架,预测考虑城市可持续发展规划的未来土地空间变化。基于遗传算法(GA)、多目标规划(MOP)和小区域范围土地利用转换及其影响(CLUES)模型,提出了一种新的城市多目标土地利用预测方法(NUMLUP)。利用该方法,我们获得了三种场景下的城市土地空间分布数据。获取了历史延续情景(HCS)、政策规划情景(PPS)和规划可持续发展情景(PSDS)下的城市土地空间分布数据。为了评估可持续发展目标11.3.1和区域规划目标(rpg),我们在三种情景下评估了连续19年的建筑效果,包括过去(2017-2023)和未来(2023-2035)。该数据集的多年总体精度(OA)超过0.87,kappa指数超过0.83,显示了NUMLUP模型的强集成。建成面积逐渐增加,以白洋淀湿地为主,2017 - 2023年明显减少。三种情景下,2023 - 2035年建成区扩张速度放缓,HCS区域变化程度最小。在PPS下,森林和湿地地区的变化最为剧烈,整体改善率为PPS >; PSDS >; HCS。相比之下,PSDS导致草地面积显著增加。在PSDS下,草地面积显著增加。2017 - 2035年三个场景的构建取得了一定成效。虽然PPS和PSDS与规划目标密切相关,但HCS将无法满足2035年的要求。PSDS还促使了区域政策空间布局的调整。由于PSDS,该政策的空间布局有所调整。从2023年到2035年,LCRPGR一直大于1,反映了一个合理和舒适的城市规划,提供土地利用来满足人口增长和需求。此外,PSDS对区域规划的空间配置进行了合理的修改。我们的研究为监测可持续城市发展和实施区域政策提供了强有力的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Novel carbon dynamics assessment framework reveals climate positive land management approaches across North America 新的碳动态评估框架揭示了整个北美对气候有利的土地管理方法
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107890
Kayla Stan , Graham Watt , Arturo Sanchez-Azofeifa
Natural climate solutions (NCS) can foster ecosystem resiliency and mitigate climate change. However, a gap exists between carbon cycle science and decision support systems. Bridging this gap can advance climate positive land management and promote the implementation of natural climate solutions. Here, we propose a novel framework to assess carbon dynamics to reveal management approaches for land cover at a 300 m resolution within which natural climate solutions can be more readily identified and applied. We use annual land cover change and model the associated carbon dynamics to categorize the sub-regional ecodistricts of Canada and the USA into the most effective NCS category based on its current change dynamics. Restoration NCS may be a useful strategy in the southern boreal forest, southeastern USA (Eastern Temperate Forest), and western Canadian Cordillera, while Protection NCS should be focused in the Great Plains and the far North. Specifically, we find that 9 % of ecodistricts, and 23 % of land area, would be best managed through protection-based nature climate solutions, while 27 % of ecodistricts, and 26 % of land area, should be managed using restoration climate solutions. This transferable framework can be used to target the sub-regional implementation of different NCS strategies based on local-level land cover changes and carbon dynamics.
自然气候解决方案(NCS)可以增强生态系统的恢复能力,减缓气候变化。然而,碳循环科学与决策支持系统之间存在差距。弥合这一差距可以推进对气候有利的土地管理,并促进实施自然气候解决方案。在这里,我们提出了一个新的框架来评估碳动态,以揭示300 m分辨率下土地覆盖的管理方法,在该框架下,自然气候解决方案可以更容易地识别和应用。我们使用年度土地覆盖变化和相关的碳动态模型,根据其当前的变化动态将加拿大和美国的次区域生态区划分为最有效的NCS类别。在南方北方森林、美国东南部(东温带森林)和加拿大西部科迪勒拉地区,恢复性NCS可能是一个有用的策略,而保护性NCS应该集中在大平原和远北地区。具体来说,我们发现9 %的生态区和23 %的土地面积最好通过基于保护的自然气候解决方案来管理,而27 %的生态区和26 %的土地面积应该通过恢复气候解决方案来管理。这一可转移框架可用于针对基于地方一级土地覆盖变化和碳动态的不同NCS战略的分区域实施。
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Land Use Policy
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