Land Use Policy最新文献_第3页

Corrigendum to “Avoiding access inequity due to classification errors in zero-deforestation value chains: Coffee and the European Union deforestation regulation” [Land Use Policy 157 (2025) 107609] “避免因零毁林价值链中的分类错误而导致的获取不平等：咖啡和欧盟毁林监管”[土地使用政策157(2025)107609]的勘误表

IF 7.1 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107955

Caleb Gallemore, Gezahegn Berecha, N.’gwinamila Kasongi, Adugna Eneyew, Melkamu Mamuye, Janina Grabs, Gina Maskell, Kristjan Jespersen, Annkathrin Mathe, Daniel Mwalutolo, Ina Niehues, Suyana Terry, Nestory Yamungu

引用次数: 0

Dual pathways of human influence on island social-ecological systems: Evidence from China’s Zhoushan Archipelago 人类对岛屿社会生态系统影响的双重途径：来自中国舟山群岛的证据

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107957

Yuan Chi , Yubing Qu , Zhiwei Zhang , Zhenhang Liu

This study characterizes the dual pathways through which human activities shape island social-ecological systems. It offers actionable insights for integrated island management and advances theoretical frameworks for human-land interrelations. China’ s largest archipelago, Zhoushan Archipelago, was employed as the study area, and human activity intensity and social-ecological systems were accurately quantified and spatialized by proposing four new indices. Two pathways of human influence on island social-ecological systems, namely, human interference with ecological health and human assistance to social development, were tracked. Results indicated that ecological health responds sensitively and rapidly to human interference, initially declining sharply and then recovering slightly. Social development showed time-lagged and cumulative responses to human assistance, accelerating after initial slow growth. As human activity intensified, the dominance of human interference first increased and finally decreased while that of human assistance presented an inverse pattern, demonstrating the need for sustained human engagement. Smaller and more isolated islands exhibited higher ecological sensitivity to human interference but lower social responsiveness to human assistance. Overall, human activity has driven the spatial reconfiguration of island social-ecological systems within Zhoushan Archipelago, establishing dual pathways that contribute to the system evolution. The results have provided a theoretical basis for harmonious development of island social-ecological systems and implied the importance of humans in enhancing the systems.

本研究描述了人类活动塑造岛屿社会生态系统的双重途径。它为岛屿综合管理提供了可行的见解，并推进了人与土地相互关系的理论框架。以中国最大的群岛舟山群岛为研究区，通过提出4个新指标，对人类活动强度和社会生态系统进行了精确量化和空间化。跟踪了人类影响岛屿社会生态系统的两条途径，即人类对生态健康的干预和人类对社会发展的援助。结果表明，生态健康对人为干扰的响应敏感而迅速，先急剧下降后略有恢复。社会发展对人类援助的反应是滞后的和累积的，在最初的缓慢增长之后开始加速。随着人类活动的加剧，人类干预的主导地位先增加后减少，而人类援助的主导地位则呈现相反的模式，表明需要持续的人类参与。更小和更孤立的岛屿对人类干扰表现出更高的生态敏感性，但对人类援助的社会反应性较低。总体而言，人类活动推动了舟山群岛岛屿社会生态系统的空间重构，形成了促进系统演化的双重路径。研究结果为海岛社会生态系统的和谐发展提供了理论依据，揭示了人类在海岛社会生态系统和谐发展中的重要作用。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating the new EU deforestation regulation in the coffee industry: Challenges and prospects for remote-sensing solutions 在咖啡行业实施新的欧盟森林砍伐条例：遥感解决方案的挑战和前景

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107965

Sinne Borby Ørtenblad , Martin Rudbeck Jepsen , Louis Reymondin , Thibaud Vantalon , Christian Bunn , Tiffany Talsma , Anne Gravsholt Busck

The coffee industry faces a critical juncture with the recent introduction of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). This policy demands stringent traceability and reporting on deforestation risks associated with seven key globally traded commodities based on remote sensing. With a focus on coffee, this paper synthesizes insights from survey results, interviews, and engagement with operators placing coffee on the EU market, and an examination of remote-sensing solutions. The paper articulates the industry's preparedness for EUDR compliance and discusses the way forward. The paper also highlights persistent challenges to accurately mapping tree-crop commodities and agroforestry systems at a global scale, along with the accompanying risk of falsely detecting deforestation related to coffee grown under such systems. This is particularly the case for smallholder-based production and poses a consequent risk of operators abandoning such regions. The results also show that the operators currently have insufficient capabilities for processing remote-sensing data to demonstrate or verify that their product is not sourced from deforested areas. Successful implementation of the EUDR requires solutions that are accessible to the operators and that build community- and operator-level capacity in Remote Sensing and georeferencing. The Terra-i + initiative offers a promising solution that can be tailored to the coffee sector and showcases successful calibration and accurate mapping outcomes. However, it is important to strike an appropriate balance between global expediency and local precision. The paper proposes a standardized bottom-up approach, where global standards are defined collaboratively, yet implementation remains locally led, mitigating risks of misclassification, and ensuring the inclusion of vulnerable smallholder producers.

随着最近欧盟森林砍伐条例（EUDR）的引入，咖啡行业面临着一个关键时刻。这项政策要求严格追踪和报告基于遥感的与七种主要全球贸易商品相关的毁林风险。本文以咖啡为重点，综合了调查结果、访谈、与在欧盟市场上销售咖啡的经营者的接触，以及对遥感解决方案的研究。本文阐述了该行业为遵守EUDR所做的准备，并讨论了未来的发展方向。该论文还强调了在全球范围内准确绘制树木作物商品和农林复合系统的持续挑战，以及伴随而来的错误检测与在这些系统下种植的咖啡相关的森林砍伐的风险。以小农为基础的生产尤其如此，因此造成经营者放弃这些地区的风险。结果还表明，经营者目前没有足够的能力来处理遥感数据，以证明或核实其产品不是来自森林砍伐地区。成功实施EUDR需要运营商能够获得的解决方案，并建立社区和运营商在遥感和地理参考方面的能力。Terra-i + 计划提供了一个有前途的解决方案，可以为咖啡行业量身定制，并展示了成功的校准和准确的制图结果。然而，在全局权宜之计和局部精确性之间取得适当的平衡是很重要的。这篇论文提出了一种标准化的自下而上的方法，在这种方法中，协作定义全球标准，但实施仍由地方主导，从而减轻错误分类的风险，并确保将脆弱的小农生产者纳入其中。

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Painful hopes? The health and well-being impacts of land expropriation in Chinese villages 痛苦的希望吗?中国农村征地对健康和福祉的影响

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107959

Guolin Gu, Wen Fan

Debates over state-led land expropriation in rural China often center on whether it constitutes victimization or empowerment. This paper reconciles these competing narratives by examining the health and well-being impacts of land expropriation on two groups: (1) individuals who lost land, and (2) those living in villages where expropriation occurred without being directly dispossessed. Using nationally representative longitudinal survey data from the China Family Panel Studies (2010–2018), covering 14,471 individuals across 411 villages, we find that expropriation is associated with significant declines in physical health for both groups. At the same time, it fosters greater life satisfaction and future confidence among those indirectly affected, particularly in villages with low levels of mutual trust. These findings suggest that victimization and empowerment can happen concurrently but for different outcomes and for different segments of the population. They also call for rural development policies to ensure that perceived opportunities are translated into tangible benefits for villagers facing expropriation.

在中国农村，关于国家主导的土地征用的争论往往集中在它是构成受害还是赋予权力。本文通过研究征地对两个群体的健康和福祉的影响，调和了这些相互矛盾的叙述：(1)失去土地的个人，(2)居住在征地发生但没有直接被剥夺土地的村庄的人。利用来自中国家庭小组研究（2010-2018）的具有全国代表性的纵向调查数据（涵盖411个村庄的14,471人），我们发现征用与两个群体的身体健康状况显著下降有关。与此同时，它在间接受影响的人群中，特别是在相互信任程度较低的村庄中，提高了生活满意度和对未来的信心。这些发现表明，受害和赋权可以同时发生，但结果不同，适用于不同的人群。他们还呼吁制定农村发展政策，确保对面临土地征用的村民来说，眼前的机会转化为实实在在的利益。

引用次数: 0

Exploring the Kuznets hypothesis in the United Kingdom’s agricultural sector 在英国农业领域探索库兹涅茨假说

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107954

Saul Ngarava

This study examines the relationship between agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄)) and sectoral development in the United Kingdom (UK) using an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)–motivated framework. Annual data from 1990 to 2022 were analysed using autoregressive distributed lag error‑correction models (ARDL‑ECM). The analysis incorporated agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA), Total Factor Productivity (TFP), and the Agricultural Trade Balance (ATB). Descriptive trends show that livestock is the dominant source of agricultural GHG emissions and that both N₂O and CH₄ emissions have declined over the study period while agricultural GVA and productivity (TFP) have grown. However, despite visual indications of nonlinear patterns, analysis, including long‑run marginal effects, the Lind–Mehlum (SLM) test, and flexible Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), find no statistical evidence supporting an inverted‑U EKC for either N₂O or CH₄. N₂O emissions remain positively associated with agricultural GVA across the income range, while CH₄ shows weak and statistically uncertain negative income elasticities. Dynamic impulse‑response and variance‑decomposition results further highlight the central role of productivity and technological progress in reducing emissions over time, with TFP emerging as the dominant long‑run driver of N₂O variation and agricultural GVA explaining the largest share of CH₄ forecast variance. Overall, the findings indicate that emissions reductions in UK agriculture have been driven not by autonomous income‑based EKC mechanisms but by structural change, productivity gains, and policy interventions. These results underscore the need for targeted, emission‑specific mitigation strategies rather than reliance on income‑led environmental transitions within the agricultural sector.

本研究使用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）驱动的框架考察了英国农业温室气体（GHG）排放（一氧化二氮（N₂O）和甲烷（CH₄））与部门发展之间的关系。使用自回归分布滞后误差校正模型（ARDL - ECM）分析了1990年至2022年的年度数据。该分析结合了农业总增加值（GVA）、全要素生产率（TFP）和农业贸易差额（ATB）。描述性趋势表明，畜牧业是农业温室气体排放的主要来源，在研究期间，N₂O和CH₄排放量都有所下降，而农业GVA和生产力（TFP）有所增长。然而，尽管非线性模式的视觉迹象，分析，包括长期边际效应，lnd - mehlum （SLM）测试，以及灵活的广义可加模型（GAMs），没有发现统计证据支持倒U型EKC对于N₂O或CH₄。在整个收入范围内，N₂排放量与农业GVA保持正相关，而CH₄表现出微弱的、统计上不确定的负收入弹性。动态脉冲响应和方差分解结果进一步强调了生产力和技术进步在减少排放方面的核心作用，TFP成为主要的长期驱动因素，农业GVA解释了最大份额的nh4预测方差。总体而言，研究结果表明，英国农业的减排不是由自主的基于收入的EKC机制驱动的，而是由结构变化、生产率提高和政策干预驱动的。这些结果强调需要制定有针对性的具体排放缓解战略，而不是依赖农业部门以收入为主导的环境转型。

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引用次数: 0

Assessment and perception of rural socio-ecological system development in suburban conditions in Central Europe 中欧郊区条件下农村社会生态系统发展的评价与认识

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107938

Marta Dobrovodská , Andrej Raniak

The main objective of our study was to propose a methodology for identifying the course of the development of the rural socio-ecological system in suburban Slovakia at the municipality level. Our methodology is based on a comparison of data over two time horizons, both a quantitative evaluation over approximately 25 years (socio-economic settings, spatial well-being and land use) and a complementary sociological evaluation (a questionnaire survey on the perception of land use changes over the last 20 years, of expected change in the next 20 years, and of the ideal state of land use). We applied the method to the village of Báb as a pilot area. The resulting quantitative assessment showed that the development of the village has characteristics of developing residential use, complemented by conventional agriculture. The results of the survey on the perception of land use changes to date differ from the actual quantitative data. In terms of expected changes, residents expect primarily an increase in built-up areas and a decrease in agricultural, natural and semi-natural areas. Their vision of ideal land use is focused on slowing down the development of housing areas and turning attention to housing quality, spatial well-being and restoration of the agricultural character of the settlement. In our work, we also focused on linking people's perceptions and development trends and their possible integration into spatial planning practice Our results confirmed that research on the linkages between the social and ecological subsystems can influence the well-being of local populations by taking into account their preferences or requirements for the landscape patterning, as well as for the development of economic activities, in the spatial planning process.

我们研究的主要目的是提出一种方法，用于确定斯洛伐克郊区城市一级农村社会生态系统的发展过程。我们的方法是基于两个时间范围内的数据比较，一个是大约25年的定量评估（社会经济环境、空间福祉和土地利用），另一个是补充性的社会学评估（对过去20年土地利用变化的看法、未来20年的预期变化以及土地利用的理想状态进行问卷调查）。我们将该方法应用于Báb村作为试验区。定量评估结果表明，该村的发展具有发展住宅用途，并辅之以传统农业的特点。迄今为止对土地利用变化的看法的调查结果与实际的定量数据不同。在预期变化方面，居民主要预期建成区增加，农业、自然和半自然区减少。他们对理想土地使用的愿景集中在减缓住房区域的发展，将注意力转向住房质量、空间福祉和恢复定居点的农业特征。在我们的工作中，我们还专注于将人们的观念和发展趋势联系起来，并将其纳入空间规划实践。我们的结果证实，在空间规划过程中，考虑到当地居民对景观格局的偏好或要求，以及对经济活动发展的要求，对社会和生态子系统之间联系的研究可以影响当地居民的福祉。

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引用次数: 0

From pixels to policy: Multi-scale flood susceptibility mapping using interpretable machine learning for urban resilience 从像素到政策：使用可解释机器学习进行城市恢复力的多尺度洪水易感性制图

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107950

Su Jin Lee , Yunhyoung Cho , Ruo Yin Yang , Steven Jige Quan

Urban flooding poses escalating risks globally as climate change intensifies extreme precipitation events and urbanization accelerates impervious surface expansion. This study develops a comprehensive, interpretable framework for high-resolution flood susceptibility assessment in Jeju City, South Korea—a volcanic island city where rapid urbanization is transforming porous basaltic terrain into flood-vulnerable urban landscapes. We integrated multi-resolution gridded geospatial data (10 m, 30 m, 100 m) with four tree-based machine learning algorithms (Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to create an interpretable flood susceptibility system aligned with administrative boundaries for evidence-based urban planning. Random Forest at 10 m resolution emerged as the optimal configuration (AUC = 0.919), balancing predictive accuracy with superior recall performance and generalization stability essential for policy applications. SHAP-based interpretation revealed elevation, proximity to water bodies, and slope as dominant flood drivers, with anthropogenic infrastructure factors showing secondary influence. District-level analysis uncovered pronounced spatial heterogeneity in flood mechanisms: reservoir-dominated patterns in Ildo districts, river-influenced dynamics in coastal Samdo areas, and drainage-constrained vulnerabilities in Yeongdam-dong. This heterogeneity underscores the limitations of uniform city-scale models and validates the necessity of localized risk assessment. The framework's alignment with administrative boundaries enables evidence-based policy formulation, supporting targeted interventions from green infrastructure deployment to drainage retrofitting. By demonstrating how interpretable machine learning can bridge high-resolution geospatial analysis with jurisdictional planning frameworks, this research advances both methodological rigor and practical applicability for climate-resilient urban governance. The methodology's modular design facilitates transferability to other topographically complex coastal and island cities worldwide.

随着气候变化加剧极端降水事件和城市化加速不透水地表扩张，全球城市洪水风险不断升级。本研究为韩国济州市的高分辨率洪水易感性评估开发了一个全面的、可解释的框架。济州市是一个火山岛城市，快速的城市化正在将多孔玄武岩地形转变为易受洪水影响的城市景观。我们将多分辨率网格化地理空间数据（10 m, 30 m, 100 m）与四种基于树的机器学习算法（决策树，随机森林，XGBoost, CatBoost）和SHapley加性解释（SHAP）相结合，创建了一个与行政边界一致的可解释的洪水易发性系统，用于循证城市规划。10 m分辨率下的随机森林成为最优配置（AUC = 0.919），它平衡了预测准确性、卓越的召回性能和策略应用所需的泛化稳定性。基于shap的解释显示，海拔、靠近水体和坡度是主要的洪水驱动因素，人为基础设施因素的影响次要。区级分析揭示了洪水机制的明显空间异质性：一岛地区的水库主导模式，沿海三岛地区的河流影响动态，以及永丹洞的排水约束脆弱性。这种异质性强调了统一城市尺度模型的局限性，并验证了本地化风险评估的必要性。该框架与行政边界保持一致，有助于制定基于证据的政策，支持从绿色基础设施部署到排水改造等有针对性的干预措施。通过展示可解释的机器学习如何将高分辨率地理空间分析与管辖区规划框架相结合，本研究提高了气候适应型城市治理方法的严谨性和实用性。该方法的模块化设计促进了全球其他地形复杂的沿海和岛屿城市的可转移性。

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引用次数: 0

Rethinking workable solutions for saving cultivated land use and enhancing climate adaptation through diet shifts 重新思考节约耕地利用和通过饮食转变加强气候适应的可行解决方案

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107927

Yiwei Wang , Yuping Bai , Jie Wang , Xiangzheng Deng , Yecui Hu , Xin Chen

China’s rapid economic development has profoundly transformed residents’ dietary patterns, which has not only intensified pressure on cultivated land but also posed severe challenges to climate change response. Establishing a sustainable dietary system helps ensure China’s food and nutrition security. In this study, we designed nine types of dietary shift patterns and developed a multi-regional input-output model at high sector resolution to assess the changes of cultivated land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Moreover, we explored the linkages among nutritional quality, food affordability, cultivated land use, and GHG emissions across different provinces and proposed differentiated strategies to facilitate dietary transition. We found that adopting alternative diets increased the intake of beneficial nutrients but also inevitably increased the intake of restricted-intake nutrients. Environmental impact analysis reveals that the consumption of grain and meat contribute to 70 % of cultivated land occupation and 90 % of GHG emissions. Except for the High-Meat scenario, the reduction in meat consumption has positive effects in all other dietary scenarios, leading to 6–35 % decrease in embodied cultivated land and 11–43 % reduction in embodied GHG emissions. Moreover, the affordability assessment indicates that western regions of China face greater affordability challenges in diet transition. Our findings highlight the complex trade-offs and synergies among nutritional quality, food affordability, cultivated land use, and GHG emissions through diet shifts. Developing differentiated dietary transition strategies is crucial for achieving multiple co-benefits.

中国经济的快速发展深刻改变了居民的饮食结构，这不仅加大了对耕地的压力，也给应对气候变化带来了严峻挑战。建立可持续的膳食体系，有利于保障中国的粮食和营养安全。在本研究中，我们设计了9种类型的饮食转移模式，并建立了一个高部门分辨率的多区域投入产出模型，以评估耕地利用和温室气体排放的变化。此外，我们还探讨了不同省份营养质量、食品负担能力、耕地利用和温室气体排放之间的联系，并提出了促进饮食转型的差异化策略。我们发现，采用替代饮食增加了有益营养素的摄入量，但也不可避免地增加了限制摄入营养素的摄入量。环境影响分析表明，粮食和肉类消费造成的耕地占用占70% %，温室气体排放占90% %。除高肉类情景外，减少肉类消费对所有其他饮食情景都有积极影响，导致实际耕地减少6 - 35% %，实际温室气体排放量减少11 - 43% %。此外，可负担性评估表明，中国西部地区在饮食转型中面临更大的可负担性挑战。我们的研究结果强调了营养质量、食品可负担性、耕地利用和饮食变化带来的温室气体排放之间的复杂权衡和协同效应。制定差异化的饮食转变策略对于实现多重协同效益至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Sustainable modeling of community-centered ecotourism in Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania: A digital resource and capacity building framework 坦桑尼亚恩戈罗恩戈罗保护区以社区为中心的生态旅游可持续建模：数字资源和能力建设框架

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107946

Heda Augustino Chale , Xiu-Hao Ding , Ruihong Liu , Bek Dhuorjang Chol , Haodong Huang

A growing interest is evident in the utilization of digital resources (DR) and community capacity building (CCB) as methods to foster sustainable ecotourism, especially in regions that are environmentally sensitive and socio-economically vulnerable. However, the interplay of these components in facilitating inclusive, effective, and enduring sustainability in land-use contexts is not yet fully understood. This study employs a combination of Stakeholder Theory (ST) and the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) framework to examine the role of DR in sustainable ecotourism development (SED) and the mediating impact of CCB. Using hierarchical partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) on survey data from tourism SMEs in Tanzania’s Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), the findings indicate that DR significantly improves sustainability outcomes both directly and indirectly. CCB serves as a vital partial mediator in this relationship. These results emphasize the need for policy frameworks that support digitally empowered and locally managed ecotourism models. The study recommends targeted investments in community-oriented digital infrastructure and participatory planning processes that incorporate local knowledge, providing practical guidance for policymakers seeking to align ecotourism development with broader sustainability goals.

利用数字资源（DR）和社区能力建设（CCB）作为促进可持续生态旅游的方法日益受到关注，特别是在环境敏感和社会经济脆弱的地区。然而，这些组成部分在促进土地利用环境中包容、有效和持久的可持续性方面的相互作用尚未得到充分了解。本研究采用利益相关者理论（ST）和刺激-生物-反应（SOR）框架相结合的方法，考察了生态旅游可持续发展过程中DR的作用以及CCB的中介作用。利用层次偏最小二乘结构方程模型（PLS-SEM）对坦桑尼亚恩戈罗恩戈罗保护区（NCA）旅游中小企业的调查数据进行分析，结果表明，DR直接和间接地显著改善了可持续性结果。建设银行在这种关系中扮演着重要的部分调解人的角色。这些结果强调需要制定政策框架，支持数字授权和本地管理的生态旅游模式。该研究建议有针对性地投资于面向社区的数字基础设施和纳入当地知识的参与式规划过程，为寻求将生态旅游发展与更广泛的可持续性目标结合起来的政策制定者提供实用指导。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050 2050年中国山区撂荒对粮食生产力的影响

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107951

Zhenyu Huang , Qianwen Duan , Jizhong Jin , Minghong Tan , Xue Wang , Liangjie Xin , Xiubin Li

Accelerated urbanization in China has prompted sustained population outflow from mountainous regions, intensifying cropland abandonment and threatening food security. Using a Random Forest model, this study analyzed the influencing factors behind cropland abandonment in China’s mountainous areas from 2000 to 2020. Multiple data sources and SSP-RCP scenarios were integrated to project abandonment patterns and associated losses in food productivity through 2050. The findings indicate an abandonment rate of 18.7 % during this period and show marked spatial variation. The rate was associated with higher cropland fragmentation, irregular shape, and poor connectivity. Under the high-forcing SSP5–8.5 scenario, the abandonment rate may rise to 36.8 % by 2050, which could reduce national food productivity by 11.3 %. Notably, high-productivity croplands in these areas are being lost at an accelerating pace, with the abandonment rate projected to increase from 5.1 % in 2020 to 17.6 % by 2050. This study provides a scientific foundation for understanding abandonment processes and formulating more targeted cropland protection and food security strategies.

中国城市化的加速导致山区人口持续外流，加剧了耕地撂荒，并威胁到粮食安全。采用随机森林模型，分析了2000 - 2020年中国山区耕地撂荒的影响因素。综合多个数据源和SSP-RCP情景，预测到2050年粮食生产力的放弃模式和相关损失。结果表明，这一时期的废弃率为18.7 %，且存在明显的空间差异。这一比例与耕地破碎化程度高、形状不规则和连通性差有关。在高强迫SSP5-8.5情景下，到2050年，放弃率可能上升到36.8% %，这可能使国家粮食生产力降低11. %。值得注意的是，这些地区的高产农田正在加速流失，预计撂耕率将从2020年的5.1% %增加到2050年的17.6% %。该研究为理解撂荒过程，制定更有针对性的耕地保护和粮食安全战略提供了科学依据。

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引用次数: 0