Land Use Policy最新文献_第3页

The grain-green tension in China's land transfer 中国土地流转中的粮绿张力

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107958

Liping Xu, Yingnan Zhang

Land transfer is an essential strategy for the sustainable utilization of arable land, representing a significant advancement in securing national food security. This study, uses data from 1382 households in the 2015–2019 China Rural Household Panel Survey (CRHPS), applies a two-way fixed effects model to assess the impact of land transfer on grain production and the agricultural environment, alongside the mechanisms driving these effects. The findings reveal a discrepancy between economic and environmental efficiencies resulting from land transfers. There is a tension between enhancing grain production and reducing the use of fertilizers and pesticides. Further analysis shows that land transfers contribute positively to the reduction of chemical inputs; Specifically, a 1 % increase in the land transfer rate corresponds to a reduction of 7.87 yuan per unit of arable land in total input costs for fertilizers and pesticides. Conversely, land transfer adversely affects grain production, with a 1 % increase in the land transfer rate leading to an 11.23 yuan decrease in the grain output value per unit of arable land. Therefore, it is essential to accelerate the transformation of agricultural production techniques. A shift from conventional farming practices to more diversified farming systems is necessary to promote sustainable agricultural production.

土地转让是可持续利用可耕地的一项重要战略，在确保国家粮食安全方面取得了重大进展。本研究利用2015-2019年中国农户面板调查（CRHPS）中1382户农户的数据，采用双向固定效应模型评估了土地流转对粮食生产和农业环境的影响，以及这些影响的驱动机制。研究结果揭示了土地转让造成的经济效率和环境效率之间的差异。提高粮食产量与减少化肥和农药的使用之间存在矛盾。进一步分析表明，土地转让对减少化学品投入作出积极贡献；具体而言，土地出让率每提高1 %，单位耕地化肥农药总投入成本降低7.87元。反之，土地流转对粮食生产产生不利影响，土地流转率每增加1 %，导致单位耕地粮食产值减少11.23元。因此，加快农业生产技术改造势在必行。要促进可持续农业生产，必须从传统耕作方式转向更多样化的耕作系统。

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引用次数: 0

Urban ecosystems’ fragmentation as an ecological measure of urbanization quality in shrinking cities 城市生态系统破碎化：衡量萎缩城市城市化质量的生态指标

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107956

Katarzyna Rędzińska, Magdalena Krawczyk

Urbanization quality assessment requires a multidimensional approach encompassing socioeconomic, spatial, environmental, and governance factors. However, existing methodologies often overlook ecological implications—an aspect particularly vital in shrinking cities with a high proportion of areas covered by vegetation and water. This study examines the impact of socioeconomic changes and two planning system transformations on urban ecosystem fragmentation in post-socialist Poland, focusing on four medium-sized cities in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship. A novel assessment framework is tested that integrates ecosystem fragmentation as a measure of urban natural system (UNS) structure, order, and distribution. The methodology includes satellite data extraction, supervised classification, land cover change analysis, spatiotemporal fragmentation assessment, and analysis of relationships between urban demographic trends and ecosystem fragmentation to identify patterns of uncontrolled urbanization. An urbanization quality assessment is provided. The findings reveal that, despite demographic decline, urban expansion persisted, intensifying ecosystem fragmentation. Urbanization occurred both within and beyond areas covered by Local Development Plans, exposing weaknesses in planning instruments and urban ecosystem policies. Croplands and grasslands emerged as the most vulnerable to fragmentation. Incorporating ecosystem fragmentation into the urbanization quality evaluation procedure significantly influenced assessment outcomes. The results indicate that shrinking cities failed to capitalize on population decline by developing coherent urban ecosystem networks. Instead, spatial chaos persisted, suggesting that EU accession and planning reforms did not effectively mitigate the negative consequences of neoliberal urbanization. The proposed framework enhances urbanization quality assessment by integrating ecosystem fragmentation and offers a globally applicable tool for sustainable urban planning.

城市化质量评估需要多维度的方法，包括社会经济、空间、环境和治理因素。然而，现有的方法往往忽略了生态影响，这在植被和水覆盖面积很大的不断缩小的城市中尤为重要。本研究考察了社会经济变化和两次规划系统转型对后社会主义波兰城市生态系统破碎化的影响，重点研究了马佐维耶基省的四个中等城市。本文测试了一个新的评估框架，该框架将生态系统破碎化作为衡量城市自然系统（UNS）结构、秩序和分布的指标。该方法包括卫星数据提取、监督分类、土地覆盖变化分析、时空破碎化评估以及城市人口趋势与生态系统破碎化之间的关系分析，以确定不受控制的城市化模式。提出了城市化质量评价方法。研究结果表明，尽管人口减少，但城市扩张仍在继续，加剧了生态系统的破碎化。城市化既发生在地方发展计划所涵盖的区域之内，也发生在区域之外，这暴露了规划手段和城市生态系统政策的弱点。耕地和草地是最容易破碎化的。将生态系统破碎化纳入城市化质量评价过程对评价结果有显著影响。结果表明，萎缩城市未能通过发展连贯的城市生态系统网络来利用人口下降。相反，空间混乱持续存在，这表明加入欧盟和规划改革并没有有效缓解新自由主义城市化的负面影响。该框架通过整合生态系统破碎化，提高了城市化质量评价，为可持续城市规划提供了全球适用的工具。

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引用次数: 0

How do key actors and governance structures interact in large-scale land acquisition? An institutional theory perspective 在大规模征地中，关键行为者和治理结构如何相互作用？制度理论视角

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107963

Abdul-Rasheed Amidu , Alirat Olayinka Agboola , Muhammed Bolomope

Large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) are frequently promoted as catalysts for investment and economic growth in developing countries. However, prevailing research often overlooks how the clash between formal institutions and traditional, customary land interests shapes equity and justice for local communities. Addressing this gap, this study employs institutional theory to analyse the Lekki Free Trade Zone (LFTZ) project in Lagos, Nigeria, examining how the interplay of formal and traditional institutions shapes negotiation power and ultimately, investment outcomes. Through a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with government representatives, international investors, and host communities, the findings reveal a profound institutional misalignment. The regulative pillar, centred on the Land Use Act of 1978, created coercive framework that systematically undervalued land, fostered bureaucratic corruption, and led to grossly inadequate compensation. The normative pillar’s promise of modernisation and jobs was undermined by the absence of Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC) and the failure to honour resettlement and benefit-sharing agreements, which eroded legitimacy and triggered conflict. Most fundamentally, the cultural-cognitive pillar highlights a clash of logics: where communities view land as ancestral and spiritual heritage. The study concludes that sustainable development requires governance reforms that bridge formal and traditional systems by integrating customary norms, rigorously enforcing FPIC, and ensuring procedural transparency.

在发展中国家，大规模土地收购经常被视为投资和经济增长的催化剂。然而，主流的研究往往忽视了正式制度和传统的、习惯的土地利益之间的冲突如何影响当地社区的公平和正义。为了解决这一差距，本研究运用制度理论分析了尼日利亚拉各斯的Lekki自由贸易区（LFTZ）项目，考察了正式制度和传统制度的相互作用如何影响谈判能力，并最终影响投资结果。通过对政府代表、国际投资者和东道国社区的深度访谈进行定性分析，研究结果揭示了一种深刻的制度失调。以1978年《土地使用法》为中心的管制支柱创造了强制性框架，系统地低估了土地价值，助长了官僚腐败，并导致补偿严重不足。由于缺乏自由、事先和知情同意（FPIC），以及未能履行重新安置和利益分享协议，这削弱了合法性，引发了冲突，规范支柱对现代化和就业的承诺受到了破坏。最根本的是，文化认知支柱突出了逻辑冲突：社区将土地视为祖先和精神遗产。该研究的结论是，可持续发展需要治理改革，通过整合习惯规范、严格执行FPIC和确保程序透明度，架起正式制度与传统制度之间的桥梁。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing ChatGPT’s legal reasoning in statutory land consolidation: The case of Cyprus 评估ChatGPT在法定土地整理中的法律推理：以塞浦路斯为例

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107960

Demetris Demetriou

Land consolidation remains a cornerstone of rural development, but its implementation is often hindered by complex statutory frameworks and lengthy procedures. In Cyprus, where land consolidation has historically reduced fragmentation, the process faces new challenges amid declining agricultural importance and evolving policy priorities such as climate change resilience, sustainable development, and urban land readjustment. At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT are increasingly being considered as tools to support legal and planning processes. This study provides the first systematic evaluation of ChatGPT’s capacity to interpret and respond to legal questions derived from Cyprus’s Land Consolidation Law. Using a corpus of 100 questions across four levels of legal complexity, responses were assessed with a rubric measuring correctness, completeness, clarity, and interpretive depth. The results show strong performance in basic factual and procedural questions (98% accuracy for Type 1), moderate reliability in procedural and hypothetical reasoning (84% and 82% respectively), but significant decline in complex interpretive tasks (55% for Type 4). These findings highlight both the potential and the limitations of LLMs in statutory interpretation: they can provide accessible explanations and procedural guidance but cannot yet replace expert legal reasoning in ambiguous or high-stakes cases. The study contributes to the emerging discourse on AI in land policy and rural development, offering methodological insights for evaluating LLMs in domain-specific legal contexts and outlining implications for their responsible integration into planning, cadastral, and governance workflows.

土地整理仍然是农村发展的基石，但其实施往往受到复杂的法律框架和冗长程序的阻碍。在塞浦路斯，土地整理在历史上减少了破碎化，但在农业重要性下降和气候变化适应能力、可持续发展和城市土地调整等政策优先事项不断变化的背景下，这一进程面临新的挑战。与此同时，像ChatGPT这样的人工智能（AI）和大型语言模型（llm）越来越多地被视为支持法律和规划流程的工具。本研究提供了ChatGPT解释和回应塞浦路斯土地整理法衍生的法律问题的能力的第一个系统评估。使用跨越四个法律复杂性级别的100个问题的语料库，用衡量正确性、完整性、清晰度和解释深度的标准来评估回答。结果显示，学生在基本事实性和程序性问题上有较强的表现（第一类型的正确率为98%），在程序性和假设性推理上有中等的可靠性（分别为84%和82%），但在复杂的解释任务上有显著下降（第四类型为55%）。这些发现突出了法学硕士在法律解释方面的潜力和局限性：它们可以提供易于理解的解释和程序指导，但还不能取代模棱两可或高风险案件中的专家法律推理。该研究为人工智能在土地政策和农村发展中的新兴论述做出了贡献，为在特定领域的法律背景下评估法学硕士提供了方法论见解，并概述了将法学硕士负责任地籍和治理工作流程整合的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Land rights perceptions and farmer behavior: Evidence from Central Asia 土地权利观念与农民行为：来自中亚的证据

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107964

Zarema Akhmadiyeva , Thomas Herzfeld

Secure land tenure is widely believed to foster agricultural investment. However, farmers’ subjective perceptions of land rights rather than legal entitlements may ultimately shape their land use decisions. This study analyzes how perceived land rights and their discrepancies with written rules influence farmers’ intentions to intensify land use. Building on the Theory of Planned Behavior and survey data from 955 farmers in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, we find that perceived land rights and their discrepancies play an important role in shaping intensification intentions, but through context-specific mechanisms. In Kazakhstan, perceived land rights positively influence farmers’ intentions only indirectly through attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. In Uzbekistan, by contrast, perceived land rights are negatively associated with intensification intentions both directly and indirectly, suggesting that stronger perceived rights may discourage investment under rigid and centralized land governance. Moreover, underuse of legal rights undermines key behavioral drivers among Kazakh farmers, while violations of formal land use restrictions reduce intensification intentions among Uzbek farmers. These findings underscore the need to align formal regulations with local perceptions to enhance land policy effectiveness and tenure security in transitional contexts.

人们普遍认为，有保障的土地使用权可以促进农业投资。然而，农民对土地权利而不是法律权利的主观认知可能最终影响他们的土地使用决策。本研究分析了感知到的土地权利及其与书面规则的差异如何影响农民强化土地利用的意图。基于计划行为理论和对哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦955名农民的调查数据，我们发现，感知到的土地权利及其差异在形成集约化意图方面发挥着重要作用，但这是通过特定情境的机制实现的。在哈萨克斯坦，感知到的土地权利仅通过态度、主观规范和感知到的行为控制间接地对农民的意图产生积极影响。相比之下，在乌兹别克斯坦，感知到的土地权利直接和间接地与集约化意图负相关，这表明在僵化和集中的土地治理下，更强的感知权利可能会阻碍投资。此外，未充分利用合法权利削弱了哈萨克农民的关键行为驱动因素，而违反正式的土地使用限制则降低了乌兹别克斯坦农民的集约化意愿。这些研究结果强调，有必要使正式法规与当地的看法保持一致，以提高过渡时期土地政策的有效性和权居保障。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Avoiding access inequity due to classification errors in zero-deforestation value chains: Coffee and the European Union deforestation regulation” [Land Use Policy 157 (2025) 107609] “避免因零毁林价值链中的分类错误而导致的获取不平等：咖啡和欧盟毁林监管”[土地使用政策157(2025)107609]的勘误表

IF 7.1 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107955

Caleb Gallemore, Gezahegn Berecha, N.’gwinamila Kasongi, Adugna Eneyew, Melkamu Mamuye, Janina Grabs, Gina Maskell, Kristjan Jespersen, Annkathrin Mathe, Daniel Mwalutolo, Ina Niehues, Suyana Terry, Nestory Yamungu

引用次数: 0

Dual pathways of human influence on island social-ecological systems: Evidence from China’s Zhoushan Archipelago 人类对岛屿社会生态系统影响的双重途径：来自中国舟山群岛的证据

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107957

Yuan Chi , Yubing Qu , Zhiwei Zhang , Zhenhang Liu

This study characterizes the dual pathways through which human activities shape island social-ecological systems. It offers actionable insights for integrated island management and advances theoretical frameworks for human-land interrelations. China’ s largest archipelago, Zhoushan Archipelago, was employed as the study area, and human activity intensity and social-ecological systems were accurately quantified and spatialized by proposing four new indices. Two pathways of human influence on island social-ecological systems, namely, human interference with ecological health and human assistance to social development, were tracked. Results indicated that ecological health responds sensitively and rapidly to human interference, initially declining sharply and then recovering slightly. Social development showed time-lagged and cumulative responses to human assistance, accelerating after initial slow growth. As human activity intensified, the dominance of human interference first increased and finally decreased while that of human assistance presented an inverse pattern, demonstrating the need for sustained human engagement. Smaller and more isolated islands exhibited higher ecological sensitivity to human interference but lower social responsiveness to human assistance. Overall, human activity has driven the spatial reconfiguration of island social-ecological systems within Zhoushan Archipelago, establishing dual pathways that contribute to the system evolution. The results have provided a theoretical basis for harmonious development of island social-ecological systems and implied the importance of humans in enhancing the systems.

本研究描述了人类活动塑造岛屿社会生态系统的双重途径。它为岛屿综合管理提供了可行的见解，并推进了人与土地相互关系的理论框架。以中国最大的群岛舟山群岛为研究区，通过提出4个新指标，对人类活动强度和社会生态系统进行了精确量化和空间化。跟踪了人类影响岛屿社会生态系统的两条途径，即人类对生态健康的干预和人类对社会发展的援助。结果表明，生态健康对人为干扰的响应敏感而迅速，先急剧下降后略有恢复。社会发展对人类援助的反应是滞后的和累积的，在最初的缓慢增长之后开始加速。随着人类活动的加剧，人类干预的主导地位先增加后减少，而人类援助的主导地位则呈现相反的模式，表明需要持续的人类参与。更小和更孤立的岛屿对人类干扰表现出更高的生态敏感性，但对人类援助的社会反应性较低。总体而言，人类活动推动了舟山群岛岛屿社会生态系统的空间重构，形成了促进系统演化的双重路径。研究结果为海岛社会生态系统的和谐发展提供了理论依据，揭示了人类在海岛社会生态系统和谐发展中的重要作用。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating the new EU deforestation regulation in the coffee industry: Challenges and prospects for remote-sensing solutions 在咖啡行业实施新的欧盟森林砍伐条例：遥感解决方案的挑战和前景

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107965

Sinne Borby Ørtenblad , Martin Rudbeck Jepsen , Louis Reymondin , Thibaud Vantalon , Christian Bunn , Tiffany Talsma , Anne Gravsholt Busck

The coffee industry faces a critical juncture with the recent introduction of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). This policy demands stringent traceability and reporting on deforestation risks associated with seven key globally traded commodities based on remote sensing. With a focus on coffee, this paper synthesizes insights from survey results, interviews, and engagement with operators placing coffee on the EU market, and an examination of remote-sensing solutions. The paper articulates the industry's preparedness for EUDR compliance and discusses the way forward. The paper also highlights persistent challenges to accurately mapping tree-crop commodities and agroforestry systems at a global scale, along with the accompanying risk of falsely detecting deforestation related to coffee grown under such systems. This is particularly the case for smallholder-based production and poses a consequent risk of operators abandoning such regions. The results also show that the operators currently have insufficient capabilities for processing remote-sensing data to demonstrate or verify that their product is not sourced from deforested areas. Successful implementation of the EUDR requires solutions that are accessible to the operators and that build community- and operator-level capacity in Remote Sensing and georeferencing. The Terra-i + initiative offers a promising solution that can be tailored to the coffee sector and showcases successful calibration and accurate mapping outcomes. However, it is important to strike an appropriate balance between global expediency and local precision. The paper proposes a standardized bottom-up approach, where global standards are defined collaboratively, yet implementation remains locally led, mitigating risks of misclassification, and ensuring the inclusion of vulnerable smallholder producers.

随着最近欧盟森林砍伐条例（EUDR）的引入，咖啡行业面临着一个关键时刻。这项政策要求严格追踪和报告基于遥感的与七种主要全球贸易商品相关的毁林风险。本文以咖啡为重点，综合了调查结果、访谈、与在欧盟市场上销售咖啡的经营者的接触，以及对遥感解决方案的研究。本文阐述了该行业为遵守EUDR所做的准备，并讨论了未来的发展方向。该论文还强调了在全球范围内准确绘制树木作物商品和农林复合系统的持续挑战，以及伴随而来的错误检测与在这些系统下种植的咖啡相关的森林砍伐的风险。以小农为基础的生产尤其如此，因此造成经营者放弃这些地区的风险。结果还表明，经营者目前没有足够的能力来处理遥感数据，以证明或核实其产品不是来自森林砍伐地区。成功实施EUDR需要运营商能够获得的解决方案，并建立社区和运营商在遥感和地理参考方面的能力。Terra-i + 计划提供了一个有前途的解决方案，可以为咖啡行业量身定制，并展示了成功的校准和准确的制图结果。然而，在全局权宜之计和局部精确性之间取得适当的平衡是很重要的。这篇论文提出了一种标准化的自下而上的方法，在这种方法中，协作定义全球标准，但实施仍由地方主导，从而减轻错误分类的风险，并确保将脆弱的小农生产者纳入其中。

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引用次数: 0

Painful hopes? The health and well-being impacts of land expropriation in Chinese villages 痛苦的希望吗?中国农村征地对健康和福祉的影响

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107959

Guolin Gu, Wen Fan

Debates over state-led land expropriation in rural China often center on whether it constitutes victimization or empowerment. This paper reconciles these competing narratives by examining the health and well-being impacts of land expropriation on two groups: (1) individuals who lost land, and (2) those living in villages where expropriation occurred without being directly dispossessed. Using nationally representative longitudinal survey data from the China Family Panel Studies (2010–2018), covering 14,471 individuals across 411 villages, we find that expropriation is associated with significant declines in physical health for both groups. At the same time, it fosters greater life satisfaction and future confidence among those indirectly affected, particularly in villages with low levels of mutual trust. These findings suggest that victimization and empowerment can happen concurrently but for different outcomes and for different segments of the population. They also call for rural development policies to ensure that perceived opportunities are translated into tangible benefits for villagers facing expropriation.

在中国农村，关于国家主导的土地征用的争论往往集中在它是构成受害还是赋予权力。本文通过研究征地对两个群体的健康和福祉的影响，调和了这些相互矛盾的叙述：(1)失去土地的个人，(2)居住在征地发生但没有直接被剥夺土地的村庄的人。利用来自中国家庭小组研究（2010-2018）的具有全国代表性的纵向调查数据（涵盖411个村庄的14,471人），我们发现征用与两个群体的身体健康状况显著下降有关。与此同时，它在间接受影响的人群中，特别是在相互信任程度较低的村庄中，提高了生活满意度和对未来的信心。这些发现表明，受害和赋权可以同时发生，但结果不同，适用于不同的人群。他们还呼吁制定农村发展政策，确保对面临土地征用的村民来说，眼前的机会转化为实实在在的利益。

引用次数: 0

Exploring the Kuznets hypothesis in the United Kingdom’s agricultural sector 在英国农业领域探索库兹涅茨假说

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107954

Saul Ngarava

This study examines the relationship between agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄)) and sectoral development in the United Kingdom (UK) using an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)–motivated framework. Annual data from 1990 to 2022 were analysed using autoregressive distributed lag error‑correction models (ARDL‑ECM). The analysis incorporated agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA), Total Factor Productivity (TFP), and the Agricultural Trade Balance (ATB). Descriptive trends show that livestock is the dominant source of agricultural GHG emissions and that both N₂O and CH₄ emissions have declined over the study period while agricultural GVA and productivity (TFP) have grown. However, despite visual indications of nonlinear patterns, analysis, including long‑run marginal effects, the Lind–Mehlum (SLM) test, and flexible Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), find no statistical evidence supporting an inverted‑U EKC for either N₂O or CH₄. N₂O emissions remain positively associated with agricultural GVA across the income range, while CH₄ shows weak and statistically uncertain negative income elasticities. Dynamic impulse‑response and variance‑decomposition results further highlight the central role of productivity and technological progress in reducing emissions over time, with TFP emerging as the dominant long‑run driver of N₂O variation and agricultural GVA explaining the largest share of CH₄ forecast variance. Overall, the findings indicate that emissions reductions in UK agriculture have been driven not by autonomous income‑based EKC mechanisms but by structural change, productivity gains, and policy interventions. These results underscore the need for targeted, emission‑specific mitigation strategies rather than reliance on income‑led environmental transitions within the agricultural sector.

本研究使用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）驱动的框架考察了英国农业温室气体（GHG）排放（一氧化二氮（N₂O）和甲烷（CH₄））与部门发展之间的关系。使用自回归分布滞后误差校正模型（ARDL - ECM）分析了1990年至2022年的年度数据。该分析结合了农业总增加值（GVA）、全要素生产率（TFP）和农业贸易差额（ATB）。描述性趋势表明，畜牧业是农业温室气体排放的主要来源，在研究期间，N₂O和CH₄排放量都有所下降，而农业GVA和生产力（TFP）有所增长。然而，尽管非线性模式的视觉迹象，分析，包括长期边际效应，lnd - mehlum （SLM）测试，以及灵活的广义可加模型（GAMs），没有发现统计证据支持倒U型EKC对于N₂O或CH₄。在整个收入范围内，N₂排放量与农业GVA保持正相关，而CH₄表现出微弱的、统计上不确定的负收入弹性。动态脉冲响应和方差分解结果进一步强调了生产力和技术进步在减少排放方面的核心作用，TFP成为主要的长期驱动因素，农业GVA解释了最大份额的nh4预测方差。总体而言，研究结果表明，英国农业的减排不是由自主的基于收入的EKC机制驱动的，而是由结构变化、生产率提高和政策干预驱动的。这些结果强调需要制定有针对性的具体排放缓解战略，而不是依赖农业部门以收入为主导的环境转型。

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引用次数: 0