Pub Date : 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107858
Yunmi Park , Jung-Eun Lee , Hyungchul Chung , Galen D. Newman , Tae-Hyoung Tommy Gim
As shrinking cities proliferate, land banks have emerged as critical instruments for managing urban vacancy. This study examines the effects of land-banking programs on social capital (SC), mediated by perceived neighborhood conditions (PNC). Based on 598 survey responses from residents in Detroit, Michigan, the study finds that Land Bank programs affect SC through both direct and indirect pathways. Own-It-Now shows a statistically significant total negative effect on SC, as small direct positive influences were outweighed by larger negative indirect effects through PNC. Side Lot demonstrates a contradictory mechanism, with positive direct effects offset by stronger negative indirect effects, resulting in no significant total outcome. Demolition exhibits a direct negative effect on SC. These findings suggest that strengthening SC requires reinvestment and reoccupation strategies that not only promote occupancy but also generate tangible improvements in neighborhood conditions.
{"title":"Exploring land banking, perceived neighborhood conditions, and social capital: A case of Detroit, Michigan, USA","authors":"Yunmi Park , Jung-Eun Lee , Hyungchul Chung , Galen D. Newman , Tae-Hyoung Tommy Gim","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107858","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107858","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As shrinking cities proliferate, land banks have emerged as critical instruments for managing urban vacancy. This study examines the effects of land-banking programs on social capital (SC), mediated by perceived neighborhood conditions (PNC). Based on 598 survey responses from residents in Detroit, Michigan, the study finds that Land Bank programs affect SC through both direct and indirect pathways. Own-It-Now shows a statistically significant total negative effect on SC, as small direct positive influences were outweighed by larger negative indirect effects through PNC. Side Lot demonstrates a contradictory mechanism, with positive direct effects offset by stronger negative indirect effects, resulting in no significant total outcome. Demolition exhibits a direct negative effect on SC. These findings suggest that strengthening SC requires reinvestment and reoccupation strategies that not only promote occupancy but also generate tangible improvements in neighborhood conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107858"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145546285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-15DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107856
Hanjie Wang , Wenpeng Huang , Xiaohua Yu
The scientific identification of cropland dynamics patterns is essential for developing effective protection policies. Utilizing satellite remote sensing data, this study applies DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) K-means algorithms to classify cropland dynamics in China, providing a solid foundation for targeted policy design. The findings reveal four distinct patterns: growth, fluctuation, late-stage shrinkage, and early-stage shrinkage. An ensemble learning analysis further identifies key predictors of cropland dynamics, including water irrigation capacity, agricultural mechanization, industrialization, and urbanization. Notably, the primary predictors vary across different cropland dynamics patterns. The growth pattern is characterized by robust increases in agricultural mechanization and irrigation capacity, while the fluctuation pattern exhibits slower progress in both mechanization and irrigation. Meanwhile, the early-stage shrinkage pattern is distinguished by rapid non-farm economic expansion and higher levels of urbanization. Based on these insights, we propose a differentiated approach to cropland protection policies, ensuring strategies are tailored to specific regional dynamics. Overall, this study offers valuable guidance for future cropland conservation and management efforts.
科学地确定农田动态模式对于制定有效的保护政策至关重要。本研究利用卫星遥感数据，应用DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) K-means算法对中国耕地动态进行分类，为有针对性的政策设计提供基础。研究结果揭示了四种不同的模式：增长、波动、后期收缩和早期收缩。综合学习分析进一步确定了农田动态的关键预测因子，包括灌溉能力、农业机械化、工业化和城市化。值得注意的是，主要预测因子在不同的农田动态模式中存在差异。增长格局表现为农业机械化和灌溉能力的强劲增长，而波动格局表现为机械化和灌溉能力的缓慢增长。与此同时，早期收缩模式的特点是非农经济快速扩张和城市化水平较高。基于这些见解，我们提出了一种差异化的耕地保护政策方法，确保策略适合特定的区域动态。总的来说，本研究为未来的农田保护和管理工作提供了有价值的指导。
{"title":"Machine learning in cropland dynamics: Evidence from China","authors":"Hanjie Wang , Wenpeng Huang , Xiaohua Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107856","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107856","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The scientific identification of cropland dynamics patterns is essential for developing effective protection policies. Utilizing satellite remote sensing data, this study applies DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) K-means algorithms to classify cropland dynamics in China, providing a solid foundation for targeted policy design. The findings reveal four distinct patterns: growth, fluctuation, late-stage shrinkage, and early-stage shrinkage. An ensemble learning analysis further identifies key predictors of cropland dynamics, including water irrigation capacity, agricultural mechanization, industrialization, and urbanization. Notably, the primary predictors vary across different cropland dynamics patterns. The growth pattern is characterized by robust increases in agricultural mechanization and irrigation capacity, while the fluctuation pattern exhibits slower progress in both mechanization and irrigation. Meanwhile, the early-stage shrinkage pattern is distinguished by rapid non-farm economic expansion and higher levels of urbanization. Based on these insights, we propose a differentiated approach to cropland protection policies, ensuring strategies are tailored to specific regional dynamics. Overall, this study offers valuable guidance for future cropland conservation and management efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107856"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145527897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107873
Aino Hämäläinen , Lina Widenfalk , Malin Undin , Erik Öckinger , Adam Felton , Meelis Seedre , Anna Filyushkina , Thomas Ranius
Climate change creates new challenges for biodiversity conservation. Numerous conservation approaches have been advocated in response and there is a need to compile these into a readily accessible format. We systematically searched scientific literature to summarize recommendations that previous review papers have given for conserving biodiversity in the face of both direct and indirect effects of climate change. As indirect effects of climate change, we considered altered land management and habitat loss, increased disturbances and extreme events, and pests and invasive species. We included recommendations targeting production landscapes dominated by agriculture or forestry in temperate and boreal regions. We found 285 relevant reviews, which in turn cited 874 original research papers as support for the recommendations given. Of the summarized recommendations, 35 % considered direct and 58 % indirect effects of climate change, while 7 % considered both. Indirect effects were considered more frequently in recommendations applicable to agriculture than forestry dominated landscapes. Frequent recommendations were increasing landscape habitat diversity or connectivity, mitigating habitat deterioration, restoring degraded habitats, and adapting management methods in both forestry and agriculture. Most of the recommendations were similar to or consistent with traditional conservation practices, while novel, climate-change specific recommendations were less frequent. We conclude that there is a wealth of research on how to maintain biodiversity in agriculture and forestry dominated landscapes in a world with a warming climate. The summarized recommendations provide a starting point for planning conservation, and the attached database with all considered reviews and original research papers can be used as a source for evidence-based management.
{"title":"Adapting biodiversity conservation in agriculture and forestry to projected climate change in temperate and boreal regions: A synthesis","authors":"Aino Hämäläinen , Lina Widenfalk , Malin Undin , Erik Öckinger , Adam Felton , Meelis Seedre , Anna Filyushkina , Thomas Ranius","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change creates new challenges for biodiversity conservation. Numerous conservation approaches have been advocated in response and there is a need to compile these into a readily accessible format. We systematically searched scientific literature to summarize recommendations that previous review papers have given for conserving biodiversity in the face of both direct and indirect effects of climate change. As indirect effects of climate change, we considered altered land management and habitat loss, increased disturbances and extreme events, and pests and invasive species. We included recommendations targeting production landscapes dominated by agriculture or forestry in temperate and boreal regions. We found 285 relevant reviews, which in turn cited 874 original research papers as support for the recommendations given. Of the summarized recommendations, 35 % considered direct and 58 % indirect effects of climate change, while 7 % considered both. Indirect effects were considered more frequently in recommendations applicable to agriculture than forestry dominated landscapes. Frequent recommendations were increasing landscape habitat diversity or connectivity, mitigating habitat deterioration, restoring degraded habitats, and adapting management methods in both forestry and agriculture. Most of the recommendations were similar to or consistent with traditional conservation practices, while novel, climate-change specific recommendations were less frequent. We conclude that there is a wealth of research on how to maintain biodiversity in agriculture and forestry dominated landscapes in a world with a warming climate. The summarized recommendations provide a starting point for planning conservation, and the attached database with all considered reviews and original research papers can be used as a source for evidence-based management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107873"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145527898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107847
Solomon Amoabeng-Nimako , Paul T.M. Ingenbleek , Saa Dittoh , Amadou Gouzaye , Prem Bindraban
Declining soil health threatens smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, undermining food security and the sustainability of agri-food systems. Although sustainable soil health management (SSHM) offers proven solutions, its adoption remains limited due to systemic barriers constraining farmers’ ability to access, combine, and benefit from essential resources. While recent scholarship calls for holistic, systems-based incentives, empirical research that designs such incentive systems remains scarce. This study addresses this gap by designing a farmer-centric SSHM incentive system tailored to the institutional realities of smallholders. Grounded in farmers’ expressed preferences, the study translates largely conceptual recommendations into concrete system designs. Drawing on an exploratory study, five dimensions of smallholder market systems were translated as attributes of an incentive system. A rating-based conjoint experiment with 744 maize and soybean farmers in northern Ghana assessed preferences across these attributes. The findings reveal four insights: 1)Farmers prefer bundled arrangements, such as integrating sustainability support with input credit and linking them to buyer contracts. 2)They follow a clear preference hierarchy, prioritizing incentives that reduce adoption barriers before those that stimulate motivation or enhance skills. 3)Two distinct farmer segments emerge, one oriented toward market access and the other toward production support, reflecting different adoption priority logics. 4)Farmers support system-based incentives that are anchored in private sector-led coordination. These findings point to clear policy directions. Governments should create enabling conditions for bundled service creation and delivery, agribusinesses and financial institutions should expand input-output-linked services to incorporate sustainability packages, and multi-stakeholder solutions should be organized around private coordination under regulatory oversight.
{"title":"Designing an incentive system to promote the adoption of sustainable soil health management practices among smallholder farmers in northern Ghana","authors":"Solomon Amoabeng-Nimako , Paul T.M. Ingenbleek , Saa Dittoh , Amadou Gouzaye , Prem Bindraban","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107847","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107847","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Declining soil health threatens smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, undermining food security and the sustainability of agri-food systems. Although sustainable soil health management (SSHM) offers proven solutions, its adoption remains limited due to systemic barriers constraining farmers’ ability to access, combine, and benefit from essential resources. While recent scholarship calls for holistic, systems-based incentives, empirical research that designs such incentive systems remains scarce. This study addresses this gap by designing a farmer-centric SSHM incentive system tailored to the institutional realities of smallholders. Grounded in farmers’ expressed preferences, the study translates largely conceptual recommendations into concrete system designs. Drawing on an exploratory study, five dimensions of smallholder market systems were translated as attributes of an incentive system. A rating-based conjoint experiment with 744 maize and soybean farmers in northern Ghana assessed preferences across these attributes. The findings reveal four insights: 1)Farmers prefer bundled arrangements, such as integrating sustainability support with input credit and linking them to buyer contracts. 2)They follow a clear preference hierarchy, prioritizing incentives that reduce adoption barriers before those that stimulate motivation or enhance skills. 3)Two distinct farmer segments emerge, one oriented toward market access and the other toward production support, reflecting different adoption priority logics. 4)Farmers support system-based incentives that are anchored in private sector-led coordination. These findings point to clear policy directions. Governments should create enabling conditions for bundled service creation and delivery, agribusinesses and financial institutions should expand input-output-linked services to incorporate sustainability packages, and multi-stakeholder solutions should be organized around private coordination under regulatory oversight.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107847"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145527896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-13DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107855
Lara Sucupira Furtado , Cecilia Silvestre Carvalho , Filipe Francisco Rocha Damasceno , Antônio Augusto Ferreira de Oliveira , Vládia Célia Monteiro Pinheiro
Urban accessibility plays a critical role in shaping property values, as access to essential services and infrastructure can significantly influence real estate prices. Accurate property valuation models are crucial to estimate fair property taxes to fund urban services and public infrastructure. Traditional appraisal methods often struggle to capture the complexities of urban environments, prompting the need for automated and cost-effective approaches. This study investigates how urban accessibility influences property value prediction by leveraging machine learning for large-scale property appraisal. We focus on Fortaleza, Brazil, a city known for its georeferenced property database and integration of machine learning into tax estimations. To quantify accessibility, we compute variables using a method developed by the Institute for Applied Economic Research, measuring access to health and education opportunities within a specific travel time via public transportation. We then apply a Quantile Random Forest model to estimate property values and assess its performance using the Mean Absolute Percent Error. Results indicate that improved accessibility to health and education facilities via public transport increases property values by approximately 9.6 % for apartments and 28 % for land parcels, with stronger effects in higher socio-economic areas near major street networks. This study provides evidence that access to opportunities and transportation infrastructure can significantly enhance property values, particularly in diverse urban settings like Fortaleza. Our findings underscore the potential of machine learning in improving the efficiency and accuracy of property taxation models.
{"title":"Harnessing machine learning for property valuation: An examination of access to education and health opportunities in Fortaleza, Brazil","authors":"Lara Sucupira Furtado , Cecilia Silvestre Carvalho , Filipe Francisco Rocha Damasceno , Antônio Augusto Ferreira de Oliveira , Vládia Célia Monteiro Pinheiro","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107855","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107855","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban accessibility plays a critical role in shaping property values, as access to essential services and infrastructure can significantly influence real estate prices. Accurate property valuation models are crucial to estimate fair property taxes to fund urban services and public infrastructure. Traditional appraisal methods often struggle to capture the complexities of urban environments, prompting the need for automated and cost-effective approaches. This study investigates how urban accessibility influences property value prediction by leveraging machine learning for large-scale property appraisal. We focus on Fortaleza, Brazil, a city known for its georeferenced property database and integration of machine learning into tax estimations. To quantify accessibility, we compute variables using a method developed by the Institute for Applied Economic Research, measuring access to health and education opportunities within a specific travel time via public transportation. We then apply a Quantile Random Forest model to estimate property values and assess its performance using the Mean Absolute Percent Error. Results indicate that improved accessibility to health and education facilities via public transport increases property values by approximately 9.6 % for apartments and 28 % for land parcels, with stronger effects in higher socio-economic areas near major street networks. This study provides evidence that access to opportunities and transportation infrastructure can significantly enhance property values, particularly in diverse urban settings like Fortaleza. Our findings underscore the potential of machine learning in improving the efficiency and accuracy of property taxation models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107855"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145527895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-12DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107850
Mingyu Zhao , Yatao Zhang , Aaron Thompson , Chun Liang Tan , Yang Chen , Waishan Qiu , Wenjing Li
Net Carbon Goal is a pressing global policy challenge, yet these ambitious goals are typically defined by specific emission reduction percentages and stabilized atmospheric concentration levels. However, the current “Absolute zero” policy has degenerated into a mere accounting game, thereby overlooking the hidden supply-demand interactions in carbon sequestration service (CSS) embedded in the Net Carbon Goal. Beyond this, CSS supply-demand interactions nested across scales and identification of fine-grained patterns over the long term have not received adequate attention. To address these gaps, this study proposes an analytical framework to investigate CSS supply-demand interactions in Singapore (2001–2022). CASA modeling and the NTL-based coefficient allocation method are employed to estimate the long-time series CSS supply, demand, and budget at different spatial scales. The CSS supply-demand interactions are analyzed from four dimensions: spatial-temporal changes, dynamic balance, spatial match, and flows. Finally, we discuss land use response, scale stability and zoning heterogeneity as key considerations for policy design. Our accounting reveals that 31.52 % Singapore area has achieved static Net Carbon Goal, while an additional 34.11 % can attain a dynamic Net Carbon Goal from supply-demand interactions. Given the second-best perspective, that no perfect equilibrium exists, including an absolute Net Carbon Goal, policy implications from our study suggest incorporating dynamic supply-demand interaction as Pareto optimal sets into CSS management to approximate the Net Carbon Goal. Overall, this study makes empirical and theoretical contributions by advancing Pareto optimal sets that move the Net Carbon Goal beyond a numerical exercise into a more substantive accounting game.
{"title":"Is Net Carbon Goal an accounting game? Insights from supply-demand interactions in carbon sequestration service","authors":"Mingyu Zhao , Yatao Zhang , Aaron Thompson , Chun Liang Tan , Yang Chen , Waishan Qiu , Wenjing Li","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107850","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107850","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Net Carbon Goal is a pressing global policy challenge, yet these ambitious goals are typically defined by specific emission reduction percentages and stabilized atmospheric concentration levels. However, the current “Absolute zero” policy has degenerated into a mere accounting game, thereby overlooking the hidden supply-demand interactions in carbon sequestration service (CSS) embedded in the Net Carbon Goal. Beyond this, CSS supply-demand interactions nested across scales and identification of fine-grained patterns over the long term have not received adequate attention. To address these gaps, this study proposes an analytical framework to investigate CSS supply-demand interactions in Singapore (2001–2022). CASA modeling and the NTL-based coefficient allocation method are employed to estimate the long-time series CSS supply, demand, and budget at different spatial scales. The CSS supply-demand interactions are analyzed from four dimensions: spatial-temporal changes, dynamic balance, spatial match, and flows. Finally, we discuss land use response, scale stability and zoning heterogeneity as key considerations for policy design. Our accounting reveals that 31.52 % Singapore area has achieved static Net Carbon Goal, while an additional 34.11 % can attain a dynamic Net Carbon Goal from supply-demand interactions. Given the second-best perspective, that no perfect equilibrium exists, including an absolute Net Carbon Goal, policy implications from our study suggest incorporating dynamic supply-demand interaction as Pareto optimal sets into CSS management to approximate the Net Carbon Goal. Overall, this study makes empirical and theoretical contributions by advancing Pareto optimal sets that move the Net Carbon Goal beyond a numerical exercise into a more substantive accounting game.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107850"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
To scientifically evaluate the carbon sequestration benefits and spatiotemporal effectiveness of afforestation in China, this study determined the annual expansion of artificial forests and the corresponding net carbon sink of afforestation (defined as carbon sink increment benefit, CSIB) in China from 2005 to 2019. It also analyzes the input-output efficiency of artificial forests and its influencing factors at the provincial level. The results indicated the hotspots for planting in China has shifted from 2005 to 2019, mainly moving from north to south and from east to west. The CSIB estimation indicated that China’s afforestation efforts yielded a 26.8 % greater carbon sink benefit than what was measured by conventional methods that only assess the absolute sink of the newly planted forest areas (NPFA). From 2005–2019, the regions with the highest efficiency of artificial forests were mainly located in the northeast and southwest of China. Based on machine learning regression methods, soil erosion degree, temperature, soil pH, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were identified as the main factors influencing the CSIB. This study aims to assess the carbon sink benefits of artificial forest expansion and identify their drivers, thereby providing a scientific basis for optimizing China’s future afforestation strategies.
{"title":"Spatiotemporal patterns of artificial forest expansion and their driving mechanisms for carbon sink enhancement in China (2005–2019)","authors":"Si-Yu Li, Xing-Peng Wei, Yuan Meng, Yu-Ting Yang, Zi-Yi Zheng, Jing-Xuan Zhou, Wang-Bo Yuan, Hong-Gang Ni","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107857","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107857","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To scientifically evaluate the carbon sequestration benefits and spatiotemporal effectiveness of afforestation in China, this study determined the annual expansion of artificial forests and the corresponding net carbon sink of afforestation (defined as carbon sink increment benefit, CSIB) in China from 2005 to 2019. It also analyzes the input-output efficiency of artificial forests and its influencing factors at the provincial level. The results indicated the hotspots for planting in China has shifted from 2005 to 2019, mainly moving from north to south and from east to west. The CSIB estimation indicated that China’s afforestation efforts yielded a 26.8 % greater carbon sink benefit than what was measured by conventional methods that only assess the absolute sink of the newly planted forest areas (NPFA). From 2005–2019, the regions with the highest efficiency of artificial forests were mainly located in the northeast and southwest of China. Based on machine learning regression methods, soil erosion degree, temperature, soil pH, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were identified as the main factors influencing the CSIB. This study aims to assess the carbon sink benefits of artificial forest expansion and identify their drivers, thereby providing a scientific basis for optimizing China’s future afforestation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107857"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145527508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ukraine has 10.4 million hectares of public farmland, which surpasses most European countries’ total farmland. A significant portion of that is allocated to private producers through farmland rental auctions. The country’s land decentralization reform of 2014 gradually transferred the management of more than four million hectares from the central governmental agency to local communities governed by local councils. Consequently, both the central and local agencies can organize rental auctions which may vary in their outcomes due to different institutional embedding. While prior studies have yielded valuable insights on Ukrainian farmland auctions, they primarily focused on the winning bid, often using narrow samples, and did not account for sample selection and spatial dependence. Our objective is to evaluate the reform’s success by assessing the effect of institutional embedding on the size of the winning bid, the probability of auction success, and the price increases during auctions. We develop theoretical models of the determinants of these auction outcomes and translate them into three spatial econometric models to quantify the performance differences between rental auctions organized by the two institutions. On average, auctions organized by local councils exhibit a 28-percentage-point higher success probability, a 25 % higher winning bid, and a 102-percentage-point larger price increase. Therefore, the decentralization of land management was a success as it enabled local communities to obtain more public funds from auctions to benefit local rural development, setting an example for other countries with large public land endowments. Future research needs to quantify the exact mechanisms underlying the observed effects.
{"title":"Effects of the 2014 Ukrainian land decentralization reform on land rental auction performance","authors":"Roman Neyter , Cornelis Gardebroek , Rico Ihle , Oleg Nivievskyi","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107852","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107852","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ukraine has 10.4 million hectares of public farmland, which surpasses most European countries’ total farmland. A significant portion of that is allocated to private producers through farmland rental auctions. The country’s land decentralization reform of 2014 gradually transferred the management of more than four million hectares from the central governmental agency to local communities governed by local councils. Consequently, both the central and local agencies can organize rental auctions which may vary in their outcomes due to different institutional embedding. While prior studies have yielded valuable insights on Ukrainian farmland auctions, they primarily focused on the winning bid, often using narrow samples, and did not account for sample selection and spatial dependence. Our objective is to evaluate the reform’s success by assessing the effect of institutional embedding on the size of the winning bid, the probability of auction success, and the price increases during auctions. We develop theoretical models of the determinants of these auction outcomes and translate them into three spatial econometric models to quantify the performance differences between rental auctions organized by the two institutions. On average, auctions organized by local councils exhibit a 28-percentage-point higher success probability, a 25 % higher winning bid, and a 102-percentage-point larger price increase. Therefore, the decentralization of land management was a success as it enabled local communities to obtain more public funds from auctions to benefit local rural development, setting an example for other countries with large public land endowments. Future research needs to quantify the exact mechanisms underlying the observed effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107852"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145515591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-10DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107853
Paula Lidia Santana, Jakcemara Caprario, Patrícia Kazue Uda, Alexandra Rodrigues Finotti
Rapid urbanization is transforming small watersheds, amplifying flood risks and challenging sustainable water management worldwide. This study investigates how regulatory-driven urban expansion affects the hydrology of the Meio River watershed (4 km²) in Florianópolis, southern Brazil – a coastal, rapidly urbanizing area where the municipal Master Plan lacks explicit hydrological criteria. The watershed was chosen for its combination of intense urban growth and hydrological vulnerability, making it representative of similar coastal cities in Brazil and other regions globally. Using land-use and land-cover data from 2009, 2019, and a future scenario derived from the Master Plan, hydrological responses were simulated with a hydraulic-hydrological model for the period 1997–2020, focusing on peak and base flows as indicators of watershed resilience. Results show that base flows remain stable, while projected urban growth could increase peak flows by up to 25 %, signaling heightened flood risk and pressures on urban water systems. Limitations include the focus on a single watershed and the absence of water quality measurements, emphasizing the need for integrated and comparative studies. Future research should explore multiple watersheds, incorporate climate change scenarios, and evaluate stormwater management strategies, including Sustainable Drainage Systems, Water-Sensitive Urban Design, and Sponge City approaches. By linking empirical hydrological modeling with urban planning analysis, this research provides actionable insights for resilience-oriented urban policies, offering guidance to coastal cities worldwide facing similar hydroclimatic pressures.
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Pub Date : 2025-11-10DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107848
Kaifang Shi , Dong Hua , Yuanzheng Cui , Yizhen Wu
Urban expansion has increasingly extended into hillside areas over the past few decades, significantly compromising natural habitat quality (HQ) and posing serious challenges to achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 15: “Life on Land”. Although hillside urban expansion (HUE) is an important part of global urban expansion, its effects on HQ remain largely underexplored. Here, we developed a comprehensive global framework to identify HUE and assess its impacts on HQ—ranging from global and national scales to biodiversity hotspots and individual cities. Results show that HUE expanded by 231,894 km² globally between 2000 and 2020, exhibiting substantial spatial variation across scales. This expansion led to an HQ degradation rate of 47.49 %, an intensity reduction of 0.43, and a Leverage value of 1.09, with significantly indirect impacts proving to be more extensive than direct ones. Furthermore, by overlaying HQ degradation with the ranges of threatened species, we found that 86.27 % of endangered mammalian species globally are affected by HUE. Our findings illuminate the socio-ecological dynamics of HUE, offering critical insights into urbanization-driven ecological pressures.
{"title":"Global hillside urban expansion reduces natural habitat quality","authors":"Kaifang Shi , Dong Hua , Yuanzheng Cui , Yizhen Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107848","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban expansion has increasingly extended into hillside areas over the past few decades, significantly compromising natural habitat quality (HQ) and posing serious challenges to achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 15: “Life on Land”. Although hillside urban expansion (HUE) is an important part of global urban expansion, its effects on HQ remain largely underexplored. Here, we developed a comprehensive global framework to identify HUE and assess its impacts on HQ—ranging from global and national scales to biodiversity hotspots and individual cities. Results show that HUE expanded by 231,894 km² globally between 2000 and 2020, exhibiting substantial spatial variation across scales. This expansion led to an HQ degradation rate of 47.49 %, an intensity reduction of 0.43, and a Leverage value of 1.09, with significantly indirect impacts proving to be more extensive than direct ones. Furthermore, by overlaying HQ degradation with the ranges of threatened species, we found that 86.27 % of endangered mammalian species globally are affected by HUE. Our findings illuminate the socio-ecological dynamics of HUE, offering critical insights into urbanization-driven ecological pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":17933,"journal":{"name":"Land Use Policy","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 107848"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145476131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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