Land Use Policy最新文献_第4页

Ecological engineering projects significantly enhanced vegetation recovery: A case study from the Jinsha River Basin (Yunnan section), China 生态工程对植被恢复的促进作用——以金沙江流域（云南段）为例

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107942

An Chen , Suling He , Yuyin Cheng , Jun Ma , Jinliang Wang , Yuncheng Deng , Haichao Xu , Hui Wang

The Jinsha River Basin (JRB) has a good vegetation coverage and plays an important role in maintaining the ecological environment in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. In this study, the effectiveness of ecological engineering implementation in the Yunnan section of the JRB was analysed from the three aspects of fractional vegetation cover (FVC), vegetation restoration potential achievement degree (VRPAD) and ecological land, and residual analysis was used to analyse the effects of ecological engineering and climate on vegetation. The results revealed that: (1) From 1990 to 2023, the interannual FVC and VRPAD were 0.65 and 0.5, respectively, and the growth rates of VFPAD and FVC were 0.32 % and 0.39 %, respectively. (2) The average annual area of ecological land was 82.05 × 10 ³ km², with a mean annual growth rate of 0.04 %, and an overall increase of 1.18 × 10 ³ km². The forestland and wetland areas both tended to increase, whereas the grassland area continued to decrease. (3) Spatially, the area of increased FVC was 70.52 % and the area of decreased FVC was 25.22 %. Compared with the period from 1990 to 2000, the VRPAD from 2000 to 2023 showed a transition from non-significant increase to a significant increase. (4) From 1990 to 2000, the area of vegetation positively affected by ecological engineering accounted for 57.39 %, and the area of vegetation negatively affected by anthropogenic activities accounted for 40.24 %. From 2000 to 2023, the area of vegetation positively affected by ecological engineering accounted for 68.28 %, and the area of vegetation negatively affected by anthropogenic activities accounted for 31.02 %. (4) In areas where vegetation improved, ecological restoration policies promoted the recovery of vegetation, which accounted for the largest area (51.88 %). In areas where vegetation has degraded, anthropogenic activities have led to vegetation degradation, accounting for the largest area (54.21 %). In the future, the influence of natural factors and human activities should be incorporated into the formulation of ecological policies.

金沙江流域具有良好的植被覆盖度，对维护长江上游生态环境具有重要作用。本研究从植被覆盖度（FVC）、植被恢复潜力实现度（VRPAD）和生态用地3个方面分析了青藏高原云南段生态工程实施的有效性，并采用残差分析方法分析了生态工程和气候对植被的影响。结果表明：①1990 ~ 2023年，林分植被覆盖度和植被覆盖度年际分别为0.65和0.5，植被覆盖度和植被覆盖度的年际增长率分别为0.32 %和0.39 %；(2)生态土地的平均面积为82.05 ×10  ³ km²,平均年增长率为0.04 %,并全面增加1.18 ×10  ³ km²。林地和湿地面积均呈增加趋势，草地面积持续减少。(3)在空间上，植被覆盖度增加面积为70.52 %，减少面积为25.22 %。与1990 - 2000年相比，2000 - 2023年VRPAD呈现由无显著增加到显著增加的过渡。(4) 1990 - 2000年，受生态工程影响的植被面积占57.39 %，受人为活动影响的植被面积占40.24 %。2000 - 2023年，受生态工程积极影响的植被面积占68.28 %，受人为活动消极影响的植被面积占31.02 %。(4)在植被改善区，生态恢复政策促进植被恢复的面积最大（51.88 %）。在植被退化区，人为活动导致植被退化的面积最大（54.21 %）。未来，在制定生态政策时应考虑自然因素和人类活动的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Rethinking gender disadvantage: Unpacking gendered constraints to the adoption of sustainable land management practices in southeast Nigeria 重新思考性别劣势：剖析尼日利亚东南部采用可持续土地管理做法的性别限制

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107872

Cynthia Nneka Olumba

Sustainable Land Management Practices (SLMPs) are crucial for addressing land degradation, improving agricultural productivity, and enhancing food security. Yet, adoption remains low due to a complex interplay of socio-economic and institutional constraints. While previous research has explored these constraints, there has been limited focus on how gender intersects with household structure to influence the likelihood of experiencing these barriers. This study addresses this gap by investigating whether and how constraints to SLMPs adoption differ between male and female farmers within male-headed households (MHHs) and female-headed households (FHHs). Data was collected from 480 farmers through structured surveys, complemented by qualitative insights from focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. Feminist and intersectionality theories underpinned the study’s theoretical framework. Logistic regression analyses revealed three key findings: (i) female farmers in FHHs have significantly higher odds (OR =2.185) of facing economic and financial constraints than those in MHHs; while within MHHs, male farmers are more likely than their female counterparts to experience these constraints (OR = 2.098); (ii) male farmers in MHHs have higher odds (OR = 2.402) of encountering constraints related to SLMPs characteristics than their female counterparts; and (iii) female farmers in FHHs are 62.3 % more likely to experience constraints related to land property rights than those in MHHs. These findings emphasise the unique vulnerabilities faced by female farmers in FHHs and challenge the common assumption that male farmers are always more advantaged in agricultural systems. The study’s insights underscore the need for nuanced, context-sensitive policies to effectively address these barriers and promote SLMPs adoption.

可持续土地管理实践（SLMPs）对于解决土地退化、提高农业生产力和加强粮食安全至关重要。然而，由于社会经济和体制制约因素的复杂相互作用，采用率仍然很低。虽然以前的研究探讨了这些制约因素，但对性别如何与家庭结构交叉影响遇到这些障碍的可能性的关注有限。本研究通过调查男性户主家庭（MHHs）和女性户主家庭（FHHs）中男性和女性农民采用slmp的限制是否以及如何不同来解决这一差距。通过结构化调查从480名农民中收集数据，并辅以焦点小组讨论和深度访谈的定性见解。女权主义和交叉性理论支撑了该研究的理论框架。Logistic回归分析结果显示：(1)女性农户面临经济和财务约束的几率（OR =2.185）显著高于女性农户；而在健康卫生保健中，男性农民比女性农民更有可能遇到这些限制（OR = 2.098）；（ii）健康医院的男性农户比女性农户更容易遇到与SLMPs特征相关的约束条件（OR = 2.402）；（iii）家庭卫生保健机构的女性农民比家庭卫生保健机构的女性农民遭遇土地产权限制的可能性高62.3 %。这些发现强调了女性农民在FHHs中面临的独特脆弱性，并挑战了男性农民在农业系统中总是更有利的普遍假设。该研究的见解强调了需要细致入微的、对环境敏感的政策来有效地解决这些障碍并促进slmp的采用。

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引用次数: 0

High-resolution carbon emission patterns in China driven by historical land use change from 1850 to 2015 1850 - 2015年土地利用变化驱动的中国高分辨率碳排放格局

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107952

Yuanyang Xiao , Jijun Meng , Likai Zhu , Ziyan Han

Accurate quantification of historical carbon emissions from land use changes is essential for assessing carbon sequestration potential and informing carbon neutrality goals. Existing research has significant limitations: studies with long time spans often lack spatial resolution, while those with high spatial resolution cover shorter time periods. To bridge this gap, this study developed a spatially explicit bookkeeping model at a 0.25° × 0.25° resolution, providing high-resolution estimates of carbon emissions from historical land use changes in China from 1850 to 2015. Our results reveal that the total net carbon emissions were 5.3 Pg C from 1850 to 2015. Reclamation (7.2 Pg C) and deforestation (1.6 Pg C) were the primary sources of carbon emissions, while cropland abandonment was the major driver of carbon sequestration (3.7 Pg C). China’s carbon sources were concentrated in three regions: (1) Northeast China and the Huang-Huai Plain (dominated by cropland reclamation); (2) the Sichuan Basin (cropland expansion); and (3) South China and Yunnan province (deforestation of subtropical forests). Significant carbon sinks are found in Northwest China, including the Hexi Corridor, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. Precipitation was identified as the most influential driver for the spatial pattern of emissions, followed by topographic constraints and economic pressures. Our study underscores the role of the historical land use policies and social environments in influencing carbon emission. The LUC carbon emissions underwent a regime shift in 2012, transitioning from a source to a sink, which was attributable to the benefits of large-scale ecological projects. The research clarifies China’s role in global carbon budgets over long history and provides spatially explicit guidance for land management aligned with carbon neutrality.

准确量化土地利用变化产生的历史碳排放对于评估碳固存潜力和实现碳中和目标至关重要。现有研究存在明显的局限性：时间跨度大的研究往往缺乏空间分辨率，而空间分辨率高的研究覆盖时间较短。为了弥补这一差距，本研究开发了一个0.25°× 0.25°分辨率的空间显式簿记模型，提供了1850 - 2015年中国历史土地利用变化的高分辨率碳排放估算。我们的研究结果表明，从1850年到2015年，总净碳排放量为5.3 Pg C。开垦（7.2 Pg C）和森林砍伐（1.6 Pg C）是碳排放的主要来源，而撂荒是碳固存的主要驱动因素（3.7 Pg C）。中国碳源主要集中在3个区域：(1)东北和黄淮平原（以垦荒为主）；(2)四川盆地（耕地扩张）；(3)华南和云南（亚热带森林砍伐）。在中国西北地区，包括河西走廊、内蒙古和新疆，发现了显著的碳汇。降水被确定为影响排放空间格局的最大驱动因素，其次是地形限制和经济压力。我们的研究强调了历史土地利用政策和社会环境对碳排放的影响。2012年，由于大型生态项目的效益，土地覆盖区碳排放经历了从源向汇的转变。该研究阐明了中国长期以来在全球碳预算中的作用，并为与碳中和相一致的土地管理提供了空间上明确的指导。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing carbon storage dynamics and policy impacts: Application of InVEST-PLUS framework in the Qinling Mountains, China 碳储量动态评估与政策影响：InVEST-PLUS框架在秦岭地区的应用

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107947

Yumeng Ma , Jinshan Wang , Pengyuan Xin , Zixin Zhao , Xiaoxu Zhang , Yuxi Yang , Tian Gao , Ling Qiu

Mountainous regions play a vital role in global carbon sequestration, yet they are increasingly shaped by anthropogenic pressures and land-use changes. This study focuses on the Qinling Mountains in Shaanxi Province, China, to quantify historical land-use and carbon storage dynamics (1985–2020) and to project alternative futures to 2050. Using eight temporal snapshots of county-level data (n = 39), the study coupled the InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration module with a Markov-PLUS land-use simulator to model three scenarios: Natural Growth (NGS), Ecological Priority (EPS), and Tourism Development (TDS). The results show that forest expansion—from 66.04 % to 75.29 % of total land cover—raised carbon storage from 1652.66 Tg to 1732.19 Tg over the 35-year period. Spatially, carbon stocks increased markedly in the southern and eastern Qinling, consistent with ecological restoration and comparatively lower urban pressure, whereas northern areas experienced net declines associated with intensive urbanization. Scenario projections indicate continued carbon accumulation by 2050, with total storage reaching 1762.95 Tg under NGS, 1778.70 Tg under EPS, and 1767.02 Tg under TDS. EPS, which prioritizes ecological restoration, delivers the largest net increase relative to 2020 (+46.51 Tg), highlighting the carbon benefits of conservation-oriented policies. TDS yields intermediate gains, allowing moderate tourism-driven land conversions while largely maintaining forest cover. As a critical ecological barrier in central China, the Qinling Mountains require land-use strategies that balance economic development with ecological integrity and food- security constraints. The study provides a policy-relevant framework for guiding low-carbon development in mountainous regions. By integrating scenario-based modeling with spatial analyses, it illustrates how targeted afforestation, sustainable tourism, and adaptive land management can jointly strengthen carbon sinks and enhance environmental resilience.

山区在全球固碳中发挥着至关重要的作用，但它们越来越多地受到人为压力和土地利用变化的影响。本研究以中国陕西省秦岭为研究对象，量化了1985-2020年秦岭土地利用和碳储量的历史动态，并预测了到2050年的替代未来。利用8个县级数据的时间快照（n = 39），该研究将InVEST碳储存和封存模块与Markov-PLUS土地利用模拟器相结合，模拟了三种情景：自然增长（NGS）、生态优先（EPS）和旅游发展（TDS）。结果表明：35 a期间，森林扩张使碳储量从1652.66 Tg增加到1732.19 Tg，占土地覆盖总量的比例从66.04 %增加到75.29 %；在空间上，秦岭南部和东部碳储量显著增加，与生态恢复和相对较低的城市压力相一致，而北部地区则出现净下降，与密集城市化有关。情景预测表明，到2050年，碳积累将持续，NGS模式下总碳储量将达到1762.95 Tg， EPS模式下为1778.70 Tg， TDS模式下为1767.02 Tg。优先考虑生态恢复的EPS，相对于2020年实现了最大的净增长（+46.51 Tg），突出了以保护为导向的政策的碳效益。TDS产生中等收益，允许适度的旅游驱动的土地转换，同时在很大程度上保持森林覆盖。秦岭作为中国中部地区重要的生态屏障，需要兼顾经济发展与生态完整性和粮食安全约束的土地利用战略。该研究为指导山区低碳发展提供了政策框架。通过将基于场景的建模与空间分析相结合，说明了有针对性的造林、可持续旅游和适应性土地管理如何共同增强碳汇和增强环境恢复力。

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引用次数: 0

Using satellite imagery and a farmer registry to assess agricultural support in conflict settings: The case of the producer support grant program in Ukraine 使用卫星图像和农民登记册评估冲突环境下的农业支持：以乌克兰生产者支持赠款计划为例

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107940

Klaus Deininger, Daniel Ayalew Ali

Individuals affected by conflict are often in particular need of support, yet allocating such support transparently, delivering it effectively in an unsafe environment, and assessing its impact pose challenges. This paper uses the case of a US$ 50 million cash grant program for small farmers in Ukraine to show how, after the Russian invasion in 2022, these challenges were addressed by (i) establishing a digital farmer registry and transferring support directly into beneficiaries’ bank account; (ii) tying support to registered land ownership and use; and (iii) using remotely sensed information to assess if beneficiaries’ registered land was used productively. We describe program design and implementation and apply a difference-in-differences design to a 2019–23 panel of all fields (as identified by cadastral boundaries) used by close to 50,000 registered farmers to assess impact on area cultivated as assessed from remotely sensed imagery. The program is found to have significantly increased the total area cultivated with modestly sized impacts that were most pronounced near the frontline and for the smallest farmers. The evidence presented suggests that, even in conflict-affected low-capacity environments, digital means allow support to affected populations to be transparently and effectively delivered and monitored. Implications for digital farm registries beyond Ukraine are discussed.

受冲突影响的个人往往特别需要支持，然而，透明地分配这种支持，在不安全的环境中有效地提供这种支持，以及评估其影响，都构成了挑战。本文以乌克兰小农5000万美元现金赠款项目为例，展示了俄罗斯在2022年入侵乌克兰后，如何通过以下方式解决这些挑战：(i)建立数字农民登记册，并将支持直接转入受益人的银行账户；（ii）为已登记的土地拥有权和使用提供支援；（三）利用遥感信息评估受益人注册的土地是否得到了有效利用。我们描述了计划的设计和实施，并将差异中的差异设计应用于2019-23年所有农田（按地籍边界确定）的面板，该面板由近5万名注册农民使用，以评估对遥感图像评估的种植面积的影响。研究发现，该方案显著增加了耕地总面积，影响不大，最明显的是在前线附近和对最小的农民。提供的证据表明，即使在受冲突影响的低能力环境中，数字手段也可以透明、有效地提供和监测对受影响人口的支持。讨论了乌克兰以外的数字农场登记的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Service-based resilience-building in Anthropogenic Socioeconomic-Ecological-Technological (ASET) systems: Hong Kong as the case 人为社会经济生态科技（ASET）系统中基于服务的复原力建设：以香港为例

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107939

Hao Han , Liang Dong

Building resilience in human settlements has garnered increasing attention due to heightened climate-related risks and ongoing urbanization, particularly in regions of the Global South. Connecting academic research with practical resilience-building efforts necessitates approaches that are robust, transparent, and scalable. Based on the Stimulus-Recovery-Adaptation (SRA) model, this study introduces an alternative service-based framework for assessing and enhancing the resilience of Anthropogenic Socioeconomic-Ecological-Technological (ASET) systems exposed to climate-related risks, with a case study on flood scenarios in Hong Kong. In contrast to the traditional subsystem-focused approach, this framework underscores life-sustaining services—such as healthcare, mobility, food supply, shelter, and education—as the cornerstone of urban resilience. The results demonstrate how service-based indicators provide practical, evidence-based insights that facilitate resilience planning and policymaking. This framework helps to clarify theoretical ambiguities, align resilience-building initiatives with public needs, and offers scalable strategies that strike a balance between short-term demands and long-term resilience and sustainability objectives.

由于气候相关风险加剧和城市化进程，特别是在全球南方地区，人类住区的复原力建设日益受到关注。将学术研究与实际的弹性建设工作联系起来，需要稳健、透明和可扩展的方法。本研究以刺激-恢复-适应（SRA）模式为基础，介绍了一个以服务为基础的替代框架，以评估和提高面对气候相关风险的人为社会经济生态技术（ASET）系统的复原力，并以香港的洪水情景为例进行了研究。与传统的以子系统为中心的方法不同，该框架强调维持生命的服务——如医疗、交通、食品供应、住房和教育——是城市韧性的基石。结果表明，基于服务的指标如何提供实用的、基于证据的见解，促进弹性规划和政策制定。该框架有助于澄清理论歧义，使恢复力建设倡议与公众需求保持一致，并提供可扩展的战略，在短期需求与长期恢复力和可持续性目标之间取得平衡。

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引用次数: 0

Scrutinising European land-use planning: Identifying the priorities and goals of building regulations 审查欧洲土地使用规划：确定建筑法规的优先事项和目标

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107916

Daniels Saakjans , David Kaufmann , Anna M. Hersperger

The rapid growth and increasing complexity of European cities highlight the need for urban planning and governance in creating sustainable urban environments. Specifically, regulations on building form and location are key to designing efficient and equitable cities. However, these regulations vary widely among municipalities across European countries and are not well understood. Notably, there is no comprehensive overview of the prevailing regulations and their objectives. This study fills this gap by analysing how European countries prioritise local building regulations and whether they pursue efficiency, i.e. making the best use of space, or equity, i.e. promoting fair and inclusive distribution of urban benefits. We examine regulations related to building height, volume, density, outlook, design coherence, value capacity, and hazard prevention. Through an online survey of planning experts in 30 countries, we found that regulations on height and density are prioritised the most and are primarily efficiency-oriented. While some regulations of lesser priority exhibited a more balanced pursuit of both goals, overall, building regulations in Europe pursue efficiency more than equity. The findings from this study are expected to enhance knowledge exchange in planning practice and foster better cooperation between countries. Furthermore, they provide an important empirical basis for much-needed theory development and future comparative research in spatial planning and land-use regulation.

欧洲城市的快速发展和日益复杂突出了城市规划和治理在创造可持续城市环境方面的必要性。具体来说，建筑形式和位置的规定是设计高效和公平的城市的关键。然而，这些规定在欧洲各国的市政当局之间差别很大，并没有得到很好的理解。值得注意的是，没有对现行法规及其目标的全面概述。本研究通过分析欧洲国家如何优先考虑当地建筑法规，以及他们是否追求效率，即充分利用空间，还是追求公平，即促进城市利益的公平和包容性分配，填补了这一空白。我们研究了与建筑高度、体积、密度、外观、设计一致性、价值能力和危害预防相关的法规。通过对30个国家的规划专家进行的在线调查，我们发现高度和密度的规定是最优先考虑的，主要是以效率为导向的。虽然一些优先级较低的法规表现出对两个目标的更平衡的追求，但总体而言，欧洲的建筑法规追求的是效率而不是公平。这项研究的结果有望加强规划实践方面的知识交流，促进各国之间更好的合作。为空间规划与土地利用调控的理论发展和未来的比较研究提供了重要的实证依据。

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引用次数: 0

Major determinants of sustainable agriculture practices adoption: A systematic review 采用可持续农业做法的主要决定因素：系统回顾

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107941

Neha Chauhan, Max Kretschmer, Jorge Gustavo Rodriguez Aboytes, Henrik von Wehrden

Despite growing innovations and work in the field of sustainable agriculture practices, the adoption of such practices remains low. The increasing global population demands the agricultural systems to produce more food, enough to feed almost 10 billion mouths by 2050. However, despite their recognized benefits, SAP adoption remains limited due to various socio-economic, institutional, and governance-related barriers. This makes it imperative that we understand the determinants of low adoption rate of sustainable agricultural practices and perform necessary changes in current adoption approaches based on the desired requirements. This study conducts a global systematic review to identify the key determinants influencing SAP adoption. A total of 121 studies published between 2000 and 2024, focusing on one of the three determinants: Behavioural, Governance & Institutional, were identified, investigated and reviewed. Using hierarchical cluster analysis and word co-abundance techniques, we categorize these determinants into five clusters: governance support and incentives, household-level demographics, institutional incentivization, farmer perceptions and behaviour, and technological advancements. These clusters help us tackle the determinants in depth by performing a full-text analysis to understand the above-mentioned determinants and identify effective policy and adoption strategies. The findings highlight that financial constraints, lack of institutional support, and limited farmer awareness hinder widespread adoption, while education, market access, and policy interventions serve as enablers. We propose targeted policy recommendations, including financial incentives, farmer education programs, and infrastructure improvements, to promote SAP adoption. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the multi-faceted drivers and barriers to sustainable agriculture, offering insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to enhance global agricultural sustainability.

尽管在可持续农业实践领域的创新和工作不断增加，但采用这种做法的情况仍然很低。不断增长的全球人口要求农业系统生产更多的粮食，到2050年足以养活近100亿人。然而，尽管SAP具有公认的好处，但由于各种社会经济、制度和治理相关的障碍，SAP的采用仍然受到限制。这使得我们必须了解可持续农业实践采用率低的决定因素，并根据所需的要求对当前的采用方法进行必要的改变。本研究进行了全球系统回顾，以确定影响SAP采用的关键决定因素。2000年至2024年间共发表了121项研究，重点关注三个决定因素之一：行为、治理和制度，这些研究被确定、调查和审查。利用层次聚类分析和词共丰度技术，我们将这些决定因素分为五类：治理支持和激励、家庭层面的人口统计、制度激励、农民观念和行为以及技术进步。这些集群通过执行全文分析来理解上述决定因素，并确定有效的政策和采用策略，帮助我们深入解决决定因素。研究结果强调，资金限制、缺乏制度支持和农民意识有限阻碍了广泛采用，而教育、市场准入和政策干预则是推动因素。我们提出了有针对性的政策建议，包括财政激励、农民教育计划和基础设施改善，以促进SAP的采用。本研究有助于更深入地了解可持续农业的多方面驱动因素和障碍，为旨在提高全球农业可持续性的政策制定者和利益相关者提供见解。

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引用次数: 0

From global models to local indicators: Assessing land-use transitions and conflicts 从全球模型到地方指标：评估土地利用转型和冲突

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107937

Yi-Ying Chen , Zi-Ling Zeng , Wei Huang , Shih-Yuan Lin

This study proposes a spatial downscaling framework to generate fine-resolution (500 m) future land-use projections for Taiwan using LUH2-based datasets under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The framework integrates historical transition probabilities, national land-use survey data, and scenario-specific spatial allocation rules to bridge the resolution gap between global models and local policy needs. To evaluate spatial and temporal consistency, short-term land-use transition probabilities were derived from national surveys and used to identify conflict zones where long-term projections diverge from recent trends. To facilitate local implementation, four indicators, including early onset, concentration, variability, and pace of change, were developed to assess scenario-driven land-use dynamics across 19 subnational divisions of Taiwan. Results revealed that SSP1–1.9, while aligned with sustainability goals, involves abrupt land-use shifts that may challenge local implementation, whereas SSP2–4.5 offers more gradual transitions but greater cumulative impacts. Furthermore, following the same spatial downscaling procedure with spaceborne images of 6-meters resolution, site-specific land-use map was projected. It was demonstrated that this framework provides a transferable method for embedding global scenarios into local planning contexts and offers practical insights for risk detection, land-use prioritization, and adaptive governance under long-term development pathways.

本研究提出一个空间降尺度框架，利用共享社会经济路径（ssp）下基于luh2的数据集生成精细分辨率（500 m）的台湾未来土地利用预测。该框架整合了历史过渡概率、国家土地利用调查数据和特定场景的空间分配规则，以弥合全球模型与地方政策需求之间的分辨率差距。为了评价空间和时间的一致性，从国家调查中得出短期土地利用过渡概率，并用于确定长期预测与最近趋势不一致的冲突地区。为了促进地方实施，研究人员制定了四个指标，包括早期开始、集中、变异性和变化速度，以评估台湾19个地方区划的情景驱动的土地利用动态。结果表明，SSP1-1.9虽然符合可持续发展目标，但涉及土地利用的突变，可能对当地实施构成挑战，而SSP2-4.5提供更渐进的过渡，但累积影响更大。此外，按照相同的空间降尺度程序，对6米分辨率的星载图像进行了特定站点的土地利用地图投影。研究表明，该框架为将全球情景嵌入到地方规划环境中提供了一种可转移的方法，并为长期发展路径下的风险检测、土地利用优先排序和适应性治理提供了实用见解。

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引用次数: 0

Impacts of climate and land use changes on the cultivable area for winter wheat and their economic benefits in China 气候和土地利用变化对中国冬小麦可耕面积及经济效益的影响

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Land Use Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107948

Haowei Sun , Li Wang

Ensuring sufficient cropland is crucial for achieving national food security. Both climate and land use changes have profound impacts on the area available for crop production. Using the High-stable index (HSI) method, this study aimed to: (1) analyze the influence of climate change on the potential suitable planting area for winter wheat; (2) determine the influences of climate and land use changes on the future cultivable area for winter wheat; (3) evaluate the economic benefits resulting from changes in the cultivable area caused by these factors. Results indicated that climate change would reduce the potential suitable planting area by 6.2 % and 3.1 % under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Land use change led to increase in the cultivable area of 37.0 % (RCP4.5) and 23.4 % (RCP8.5), respectively. Climate change would lead to a greater dispersion of potential suitable and cultivable areas for winter wheat. Compared to the baseline period, land use change could result in maximum annual average economic benefits of 59.84 billion USD under RCP4.5 and 39.58 billion USD under RCP8.5. Conversely, climate change could result in maximum annual average economic losses of 9.3 billion USD and 6.7 billion USD under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Future land use change has the potential to mitigate or offset the adverse effects of climate change on winter wheat growing areas. Considering the impacts of land tenure on field practices, land restoration, land use transfer, and land fragmentation, the combination of clearer top-level design of land use pattern and more flexible land transfer strategies will enable agricultural land to better withstand the adverse effects of climate change on. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to achieve food security in the context of climate and land use changes.

确保充足的耕地对实现国家粮食安全至关重要。气候和土地利用的变化对可用于作物生产的面积都有深远的影响。采用高稳定指数（HSI）方法，分析了气候变化对冬小麦潜在适宜种植面积的影响；(2)确定气候和土地利用变化对未来冬小麦可耕面积的影响；(3)评价由这些因素引起的耕地面积变化所带来的经济效益。结果表明，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5处理下，气候变化会使潜在适宜种植面积分别减少6.2 %和3.1 %。土地利用变化导致耕地面积分别增加37.0% % （RCP4.5）和23.4% % （RCP8.5）。气候变化将导致冬小麦潜在适宜和可种植区域的更大分散。与基准期相比，在rcp45和RCP8.5条件下，土地利用变化带来的年平均经济效益分别为598.4亿美元和395.8亿美元。相反，在rcp45和RCP8.5下，气候变化可能导致的年平均经济损失最高分别为93亿美元和67亿美元。未来土地利用变化有可能减轻或抵消气候变化对冬小麦种植区的不利影响。考虑到土地权制对田间实践、土地恢复、土地利用流转和土地破碎化的影响，更清晰的土地利用格局顶层设计与更灵活的土地流转策略相结合，将使农用地更好地抵御气候变化的不利影响。这项研究为决策者在气候和土地利用变化的背景下实现粮食安全提供了有价值的见解。

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