Amy J. Withers, Simon Croft, Richard Budgey, Daniel A. Warren, Nicholas Johnson
Vector-borne diseases pose significant global threats to both human and animal health, and their impacts are expected to intensify with ongoing climate change. Understanding the ecological and environmental drivers of these diseases is essential for developing effective surveillance and control strategies. Central to this is knowledge of the distributions of vectors and hosts, and how these may shift in response to environmental changes. In this study, we present a generalisable framework for predicting the current and future distributions of vectors and wildlife hosts using correlative modelling approaches. We integrate these predictions with data on livestock and human populations to inform the potential risk of West Nile virus (WNV) establishment and exposure in the United Kingdom. Currently absent from the United Kingdom, WNV is an orthoflavivirus maintained in a natural transmission cycle between mosquitoes and birds. Spillover into incidental hosts such as humans and horses can result in febrile illness, with severe cases leading to encephalitis and death. Our findings identify regions at elevated risk of WNV establishment where competent avian hosts and mosquito vectors are likely to co-occur and where infected vectors may interact with spillover hosts. We also explore how these risk patterns may evolve by 2100 under different environmental scenarios. Across all scenarios, risk is projected to increase in the south-east of the United Kingdom and decline in northern regions. This work demonstrates how modelling current and future vector and host distributions can inform risk assessments for emerging vector-borne diseases. Such insights are critical for guiding policy decisions and enhancing preparedness for disease incursions in a changing environment.
{"title":"Modelling vector and host distributions to inform potential disease risk: A case study of West Nile virus in the United Kingdom","authors":"Amy J. Withers, Simon Croft, Richard Budgey, Daniel A. Warren, Nicholas Johnson","doi":"10.1111/mve.12825","DOIUrl":"10.1111/mve.12825","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Vector-borne diseases pose significant global threats to both human and animal health, and their impacts are expected to intensify with ongoing climate change. Understanding the ecological and environmental drivers of these diseases is essential for developing effective surveillance and control strategies. Central to this is knowledge of the distributions of vectors and hosts, and how these may shift in response to environmental changes. In this study, we present a generalisable framework for predicting the current and future distributions of vectors and wildlife hosts using correlative modelling approaches. We integrate these predictions with data on livestock and human populations to inform the potential risk of West Nile virus (WNV) establishment and exposure in the United Kingdom. Currently absent from the United Kingdom, WNV is an orthoflavivirus maintained in a natural transmission cycle between mosquitoes and birds. Spillover into incidental hosts such as humans and horses can result in febrile illness, with severe cases leading to encephalitis and death. Our findings identify regions at elevated risk of WNV establishment where competent avian hosts and mosquito vectors are likely to co-occur and where infected vectors may interact with spillover hosts. We also explore how these risk patterns may evolve by 2100 under different environmental scenarios. Across all scenarios, risk is projected to increase in the south-east of the United Kingdom and decline in northern regions. This work demonstrates how modelling current and future vector and host distributions can inform risk assessments for emerging vector-borne diseases. Such insights are critical for guiding policy decisions and enhancing preparedness for disease incursions in a changing environment.</p>","PeriodicalId":18350,"journal":{"name":"Medical and Veterinary Entomology","volume":"39 4","pages":"842-862"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://resjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/mve.12825","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144765064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Krzysztof Szpila, Sebastian Maliszewski, Agnieszka Soszyńska, Martin Villet, René Richet, Thomas Pape
Flesh flies (Sarcophagidae), along with blow flies, are among the first colonizers of vertebrate cadavers, including human corpses. Their early colonization and rapid development frequently result in the collection of flesh fly larvae as evidence during crime scene investigations or autopsies. Despite their regular occurrence and confirmed forensic importance, the species-level identification of sarcophagid larvae remains challenging. To address this, the morphology of the first-instar larva of three common and widespread European species with confirmed forensic relevance—Sarcophaga africa, S. caerulescens, S. melanura—was revised. Material was analysed using both light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Taxonomically important characters were identified in the pseudocephalon, the facial mask, mouthhooks and basal sclerite of the cephaloskeleton, and the distribution and shape of spines and papillae of the anal plate. The results are compared with previous descriptions, and an identification key is presented for the first-instar larvae of forensically relevant flesh fly species of central and northern Europe.
肉蝇(麻蝇科)和蝇蛆是脊椎动物尸体(包括人类尸体)的第一批殖民者。它们的早期殖民和快速发展经常导致收集肉蝇幼虫作为犯罪现场调查或尸检的证据。尽管石棺幼虫经常发生,并且在法医鉴定上具有重要意义,但物种水平的鉴定仍然具有挑战性。为了解决这个问题,我们修改了三种常见和广泛分布的欧洲物种(sarcophaga africa, S. caerulescens, S. melanura)的一龄幼虫的形态,这些物种已证实与法医相关。用光学显微镜和扫描电子显微镜对材料进行分析。在假头、面罩、口钩和头骨架的基底巩膜以及肛门板的棘和乳头的分布和形状上鉴定出重要的分类学特征。结果与前人的描述进行了比较,并提出了中欧和北欧法医相关的肉蝇种的一龄幼虫的识别密钥。
{"title":"Morphological identification of first-instar larvae of European flesh flies of forensic importance","authors":"Krzysztof Szpila, Sebastian Maliszewski, Agnieszka Soszyńska, Martin Villet, René Richet, Thomas Pape","doi":"10.1111/mve.12826","DOIUrl":"10.1111/mve.12826","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flesh flies (Sarcophagidae), along with blow flies, are among the first colonizers of vertebrate cadavers, including human corpses. Their early colonization and rapid development frequently result in the collection of flesh fly larvae as evidence during crime scene investigations or autopsies. Despite their regular occurrence and confirmed forensic importance, the species-level identification of sarcophagid larvae remains challenging. To address this, the morphology of the first-instar larva of three common and widespread European species with confirmed forensic relevance—<i>Sarcophaga africa</i>, <i>S. caerulescens</i>, <i>S. melanura</i>—was revised. Material was analysed using both light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Taxonomically important characters were identified in the pseudocephalon, the facial mask, mouthhooks and basal sclerite of the cephaloskeleton, and the distribution and shape of spines and papillae of the anal plate. The results are compared with previous descriptions, and an identification key is presented for the first-instar larvae of forensically relevant flesh fly species of central and northern Europe.</p>","PeriodicalId":18350,"journal":{"name":"Medical and Veterinary Entomology","volume":"39 4","pages":"802-816"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144698982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Uriel Mauricio Valdez-Espinoza, Diego Santiago-Alarcon, Fabricio Villalobos, Roberta Marques, Rodolfo Lagunes-Quintanilla, Andrés Lira-Noriega
Ecological niche models (ENMs) and species distribution models (SDMs) are essential tools for investigating the ecological requirements and geographic distributions of species at multiple spatial and temporal scales. While these modelling techniques have been employed across various taxonomic groups to explore ecology, evolution and biogeography, their application to ticks and tick-borne pathogens (TBPs) has yielded valuable—though not yet conclusive—perspectives for understanding epidemiology and pathogen transmission risk. Advances in research on these topics necessitate a review to determine whether there is consistency in the conceptual and methodological implementation of these approaches, as well as to identify needs for improvement and adaptation to more informative alternatives. Here, we aim to review the state of the art in the use of these concepts and tools in the study of tick species and TBPs worldwide to provide a clear understanding of their theoretical and methodological foundations, study topics, involved species, variables, geographic resolutions, applications of model outputs and thematic evolution. We conducted a formal literature review of 158 publications in the period from 1997 to May 2024, along with bibliometric and scientometric analyses. Results indicate that the main topic of study resides in the prediction of current and future potential geographic distribution, and most of the work has been carried out only for nine genera of ticks, with major focus on species belonging to the family Ixodidae and those affecting human health. Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson et al. (Spirochaetales: Borreliaceae) is the most explored pathogen. Studies have mostly used bioclimatic variables, but some studies also incorporate topographic variables from local to global scales, with resolutions ranging from 30 m to 80 km. Although ENM and SDM in ticks and TBPs have been routinely used, very few have been validated in the field, and their projections are not used in epidemiological monitoring. Over 60% of the studies do not report sufficient methodological information for replication. We also detected imprecise usage of the terms ENM and SDM, which are often used interchangeably. This lack of conceptual clarity impedes the adequate treatment of both ecological niches and geographic distributions, hindering advancement in this research field worldwide. We recommend including species of the family Argasidae in future studies to analyse their ecological requirements and potential distributions. These species have been poorly studied despite being vectors of pathogens causing diseases with medical and veterinary importance (e.g., relapsing fever and spirochetosis). Lastly, we identify key areas for improvement—from biogeographical knowledge gaps to the use of modern sampling methods, algorithms and hypotheses—that would enhance the application of these concepts and modelling techniques.
{"title":"Current and future applications of species distribution and ecological niche modelling for the study of ticks and tick-borne pathogens\u0000 Aplicaciones actuales y futuras de los modelos de distribución de especies y de nicho ecológico para el estudio de garrapatas y patógenos transmitidos por garrapatas","authors":"Uriel Mauricio Valdez-Espinoza, Diego Santiago-Alarcon, Fabricio Villalobos, Roberta Marques, Rodolfo Lagunes-Quintanilla, Andrés Lira-Noriega","doi":"10.1111/mve.12820","DOIUrl":"10.1111/mve.12820","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ecological niche models (ENMs) and species distribution models (SDMs) are essential tools for investigating the ecological requirements and geographic distributions of species at multiple spatial and temporal scales. While these modelling techniques have been employed across various taxonomic groups to explore ecology, evolution and biogeography, their application to ticks and tick-borne pathogens (TBPs) has yielded valuable—though not yet conclusive—perspectives for understanding epidemiology and pathogen transmission risk. Advances in research on these topics necessitate a review to determine whether there is consistency in the conceptual and methodological implementation of these approaches, as well as to identify needs for improvement and adaptation to more informative alternatives. Here, we aim to review the state of the art in the use of these concepts and tools in the study of tick species and TBPs worldwide to provide a clear understanding of their theoretical and methodological foundations, study topics, involved species, variables, geographic resolutions, applications of model outputs and thematic evolution. We conducted a formal literature review of 158 publications in the period from 1997 to May 2024, along with bibliometric and scientometric analyses. Results indicate that the main topic of study resides in the prediction of current and future potential geographic distribution, and most of the work has been carried out only for nine genera of ticks, with major focus on species belonging to the family Ixodidae and those affecting human health. <i>Borrelia burgdorferi</i> Johnson et al. (Spirochaetales: Borreliaceae) is the most explored pathogen. Studies have mostly used bioclimatic variables, but some studies also incorporate topographic variables from local to global scales, with resolutions ranging from 30 m to 80 km. Although ENM and SDM in ticks and TBPs have been routinely used, very few have been validated in the field, and their projections are not used in epidemiological monitoring. Over 60% of the studies do not report sufficient methodological information for replication. We also detected imprecise usage of the terms ENM and SDM, which are often used interchangeably. This lack of conceptual clarity impedes the adequate treatment of both ecological niches and geographic distributions, hindering advancement in this research field worldwide. We recommend including species of the family Argasidae in future studies to analyse their ecological requirements and potential distributions. These species have been poorly studied despite being vectors of pathogens causing diseases with medical and veterinary importance (e.g., relapsing fever and spirochetosis). Lastly, we identify key areas for improvement—from biogeographical knowledge gaps to the use of modern sampling methods, algorithms and hypotheses—that would enhance the application of these concepts and modelling techniques.</p>","PeriodicalId":18350,"journal":{"name":"Medical and Veterinary Entomology","volume":"39 3","pages":"399-421"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/mve.12820","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144642919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}