Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00595-1
Leah Brinch-Iversen
Leah Brinch-Iversen explains how lab-on-chip sensors can be used to monitor the deep ocean.
Leah Brinch-Iversen 解释了如何利用片上实验室传感器监测深海。
{"title":"Exploring the hadal zone with lab-on-chip sensors","authors":"Leah Brinch-Iversen","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00595-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00595-1","url":null,"abstract":"Leah Brinch-Iversen explains how lab-on-chip sensors can be used to monitor the deep ocean.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"5 10","pages":"670-670"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142202270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-05DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00594-2
James D. Ford, Santiago Clerici, Dylan G. Clark, Robbert Biesbroek, Sherilee Harper
Since 2001, the IPCC has utilized ‘burning embers’ to visualize risk at different levels of anthropogenic warming. An ethnoclimatological approach offers an opportunity to expand these figures, aligning the assessment of risk with the lived realities of vulnerable populations.
{"title":"Re-conceptualizing the IPCC’s ‘burning embers’","authors":"James D. Ford, Santiago Clerici, Dylan G. Clark, Robbert Biesbroek, Sherilee Harper","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00594-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00594-2","url":null,"abstract":"Since 2001, the IPCC has utilized ‘burning embers’ to visualize risk at different levels of anthropogenic warming. An ethnoclimatological approach offers an opportunity to expand these figures, aligning the assessment of risk with the lived realities of vulnerable populations.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"5 10","pages":"667-669"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142202272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-03DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00583-5
Huw J. Griffiths, Vonda J. Cummings, Anton Van de Putte, Rowan J. Whittle, Catherine L. Waller
The benthic community around Antarctica is diverse and highly endemic. These cold-adapted species are under threat from local and global drivers, including warming, acidification and changes to the cryosphere. In this Review, we summarize observed, experimental and modelled Antarctic benthic ecological change. Warming, glacial melt and retreat, and reduced ice cover are causing regional benthic biomass to increase or decrease, depending on the additional influences of ice scour, turbidity and freshening. Additionally, the dominance of previously cold-restricted or light-restricted taxa is increasing, and several ecological tipping points have already been breached, leading to ecological phase shifts in some habitats. The largest changes have been observed in communities in the shallows of the West Antarctic Peninsula, notably change to distribution, biodiversity, biomass and trophic structure. Models based on observational and experimental evidence indicate that these changes will spread deeper and eastwards throughout this century. Available data are primarily limited to a handful of shallow-water taxa; thus, future work will need to involve multispecies observations and experiments encompassing multiple drivers to understand community and ecosystem responses, and autonomous monitoring techniques to fill geographical, bathymetric, seasonal and taxonomic gaps; advances in environmental DNA and artificial-intelligence-based techniques will help to rapidly analyse such data. The cold-adapted communities on the seafloor around Antarctica are vulnerable to environmental changes. This Review summarizes the regional variations in present and future benthic ecological changes driven by the impacts of climate change and acidification.
南极洲周围的底栖生物群落种类繁多，且极具地方特色。这些适应寒冷的物种正受到当地和全球驱动因素的威胁，包括气候变暖、酸化和冰冻圈的变化。在这篇综述中，我们总结了观测、实验和模拟的南极底栖生物生态变化。气候变暖、冰川融化和后退以及冰盖减少正在导致区域底栖生物量的增加或减少，这取决于冰层冲刷、浑浊和清新的额外影响。此外，以前受冷限制或受光限制的类群的优势地位正在增加，一些生态临界点已经被突破，导致一些栖息地的生态阶段性转变。在南极半岛西部浅滩的群落中观察到了最大的变化，特别是分布、生物多样性、生物量和营养结构的变化。根据观测和实验证据建立的模型显示，这些变化将在本世纪向更深处和东部蔓延。现有数据主要局限于少数浅水类群；因此，未来的工作需要进行多物种观测和实验，包括多种驱动因素，以了解群落和生态系统的反应，并采用自主监测技术来填补地理、水深、季节和分类学方面的空白；环境 DNA 和基于人工智能的技术的进步将有助于快速分析这些数据。南极洲周围海底的冷适应群落很容易受到环境变化的影响。本综述总结了气候变化和酸化影响导致的目前和未来海底生态变化的区域差异。
{"title":"Antarctic benthic ecological change","authors":"Huw J. Griffiths, Vonda J. Cummings, Anton Van de Putte, Rowan J. Whittle, Catherine L. Waller","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00583-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00583-5","url":null,"abstract":"The benthic community around Antarctica is diverse and highly endemic. These cold-adapted species are under threat from local and global drivers, including warming, acidification and changes to the cryosphere. In this Review, we summarize observed, experimental and modelled Antarctic benthic ecological change. Warming, glacial melt and retreat, and reduced ice cover are causing regional benthic biomass to increase or decrease, depending on the additional influences of ice scour, turbidity and freshening. Additionally, the dominance of previously cold-restricted or light-restricted taxa is increasing, and several ecological tipping points have already been breached, leading to ecological phase shifts in some habitats. The largest changes have been observed in communities in the shallows of the West Antarctic Peninsula, notably change to distribution, biodiversity, biomass and trophic structure. Models based on observational and experimental evidence indicate that these changes will spread deeper and eastwards throughout this century. Available data are primarily limited to a handful of shallow-water taxa; thus, future work will need to involve multispecies observations and experiments encompassing multiple drivers to understand community and ecosystem responses, and autonomous monitoring techniques to fill geographical, bathymetric, seasonal and taxonomic gaps; advances in environmental DNA and artificial-intelligence-based techniques will help to rapidly analyse such data. The cold-adapted communities on the seafloor around Antarctica are vulnerable to environmental changes. This Review summarizes the regional variations in present and future benthic ecological changes driven by the impacts of climate change and acidification.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"5 9","pages":"645-664"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-024-00583-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142165823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-27DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00593-3
Estel Font
Estel Font explains how underwater robotic gliders can be used to monitor the changing ocean.
Estel Font 解释了如何利用水下机器人滑翔机监测不断变化的海洋。
{"title":"Autonomous underwater gliders to observe the ocean","authors":"Estel Font","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00593-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00593-3","url":null,"abstract":"Estel Font explains how underwater robotic gliders can be used to monitor the changing ocean.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"5 9","pages":"610-610"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142165822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Quantifying progress towards sustainability goals in food systems requires a universal, threshold-based Food Sustainability Index. Integrating artificial intelligence, remote sensing and empirical observations with system dynamics modelling can help guide sustainable transformations.
{"title":"Guiding sustainable transformations in food systems","authors":"Asim Biswas, Isabel Maddocks, Tirtha Dhar, Laurette Dube, Animesh Dutta, Byomkesh Talukder, Kumaraswamy Ponnambalam","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00588-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00588-0","url":null,"abstract":"Quantifying progress towards sustainability goals in food systems requires a universal, threshold-based Food Sustainability Index. Integrating artificial intelligence, remote sensing and empirical observations with system dynamics modelling can help guide sustainable transformations.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"5 9","pages":"607-608"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142165804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-27DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00578-2
Lian Feng, Ying Wang, Xuejiao Hou, Boqiang Qin, Tiit Kuster, Fan Qu, Nengwang Chen, Hans W. Paerl, Chunmiao Zheng
Harmful algal blooms can produce toxins that pose threats to aquatic ecosystems and human health. In this Review, we outline the global trends in harmful algal bloom occurrence and explore the drivers, future trajectories and potential mitigation strategies. Globally, harmful algal bloom occurrence has risen since the 1980s, including a 44% increase from the 2000s to 2010s, especially in Asia and Africa. Enhanced nutrient pollution owing to urbanization, wastewater discharge and agricultural expansion are key drivers of these increases. In contrast, changes have been less substantial in high-income regions such as North America, Europe and Oceania, where policies to mitigate nutrient pollution have stabilized bloom occurrences since the 1970s. However, since the 1990s, climate warming and legacy nutrient pollution have driven a resurgence in toxic algal blooms in some US and European lakes, highlighting the inherent challenges in mitigating harmful blooms in a warming climate. Indeed, advancing research on harmful algal bloom dynamics and projections largely depends on effectively using data from multiple sources to understand environmental interactions and enhance modelling techniques. Integrated monitoring networks across various spatiotemporal scales and data-sharing frameworks are essential for improving harmful algal bloom forecasting and mitigation. Harmful algal blooms degrade inland aquatic ecosystems and pose a risk to water security. This Review explores the underlying drivers of hotspots and global trends in harmful algal blooms, and identifies potential solutions for bloom monitoring and mitigation.
{"title":"Harmful algal blooms in inland waters","authors":"Lian Feng, Ying Wang, Xuejiao Hou, Boqiang Qin, Tiit Kuster, Fan Qu, Nengwang Chen, Hans W. Paerl, Chunmiao Zheng","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00578-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00578-2","url":null,"abstract":"Harmful algal blooms can produce toxins that pose threats to aquatic ecosystems and human health. In this Review, we outline the global trends in harmful algal bloom occurrence and explore the drivers, future trajectories and potential mitigation strategies. Globally, harmful algal bloom occurrence has risen since the 1980s, including a 44% increase from the 2000s to 2010s, especially in Asia and Africa. Enhanced nutrient pollution owing to urbanization, wastewater discharge and agricultural expansion are key drivers of these increases. In contrast, changes have been less substantial in high-income regions such as North America, Europe and Oceania, where policies to mitigate nutrient pollution have stabilized bloom occurrences since the 1970s. However, since the 1990s, climate warming and legacy nutrient pollution have driven a resurgence in toxic algal blooms in some US and European lakes, highlighting the inherent challenges in mitigating harmful blooms in a warming climate. Indeed, advancing research on harmful algal bloom dynamics and projections largely depends on effectively using data from multiple sources to understand environmental interactions and enhance modelling techniques. Integrated monitoring networks across various spatiotemporal scales and data-sharing frameworks are essential for improving harmful algal bloom forecasting and mitigation. Harmful algal blooms degrade inland aquatic ecosystems and pose a risk to water security. This Review explores the underlying drivers of hotspots and global trends in harmful algal blooms, and identifies potential solutions for bloom monitoring and mitigation.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"5 9","pages":"631-644"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142165813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-22DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00592-4
Emily R. Fedders
Emily Fedders explains how Gamma Portable Radar Interferometery can be used to estimate strain in sea ice.
Emily Fedders 解释了伽马便携式雷达干涉仪如何用于估算海冰的应变。
{"title":"Ground-based radar interferometry measures strain in sea ice","authors":"Emily R. Fedders","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00592-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00592-4","url":null,"abstract":"Emily Fedders explains how Gamma Portable Radar Interferometery can be used to estimate strain in sea ice.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"5 9","pages":"611-611"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142165801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-13DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00589-z
Clare Davis, Tom Pickerell
To explore career opportunities outside of academia, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment interviewed Tom Pickerell about their career path from PhD student to Global Director of the Ocean Program at the World Resources Institute (WRI).
{"title":"From academia to a career in ocean sustainability","authors":"Clare Davis, Tom Pickerell","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00589-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00589-z","url":null,"abstract":"To explore career opportunities outside of academia, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment interviewed Tom Pickerell about their career path from PhD student to Global Director of the Ocean Program at the World Resources Institute (WRI).","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"5 9","pages":"609-609"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142165819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00576-4
Karen A. Hudson-Edwards, Deanna Kemp, Luis Alberto Torres-Cruz, Mark G. Macklin, Paul A. Brewer, John R. Owen, Daniel M. Franks, Eva Marquis, Christopher J. Thomas
Mining generates 13 billion tonnes per year of potentially toxic wet slurry waste, called tailings, commonly deposited in tailings storage facilities (TSF). Since 1915, 257 TSF failures have occurred, releasing a total of ~250 million m3 of tailings, destroying areas up to ~5,000 km2, killing an estimated 2,650 people and impacting ~317,000 people through displacement, property damage, and risks to livelihoods and health. In this Review, we provide an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the causes, effects and response to TSF failures, applying a disaster risk reduction framework. TSF failures can occur owing to earthquakes, overtopping, weak foundations and liquefaction, among other mechanisms. The severities and volumes of TSF failures have increased since the year 2000, owing to increasing mine waste generation from the exploitation of larger, lower-grade deposits. Despite the increasingly severe impacts, the mining industry has been hesitant to use the term ‘disaster’ to analyse TSF failure, presumably to avoid liability. TSF failures should be considered as disasters when they cause severe disruption to the functioning of ecological and social systems. Future research should build on attempts to link tailings facility locations to situated risk factors by improving spatial and time series analysis, reducing reliance on corporate disclosures, and increasing the visibility of priority locations and patterns of concern. Mine tailings are voluminous and often toxic wastes, whose management is a global safety and sustainability challenge. This Review summarizes the major tailings storage facility disasters and impacts, emphasizing the urgent need for risk reduction approaches for management and policy.
{"title":"Tailings storage facilities, failures and disaster risk","authors":"Karen A. Hudson-Edwards, Deanna Kemp, Luis Alberto Torres-Cruz, Mark G. Macklin, Paul A. Brewer, John R. Owen, Daniel M. Franks, Eva Marquis, Christopher J. Thomas","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00576-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00576-4","url":null,"abstract":"Mining generates 13 billion tonnes per year of potentially toxic wet slurry waste, called tailings, commonly deposited in tailings storage facilities (TSF). Since 1915, 257 TSF failures have occurred, releasing a total of ~250 million m3 of tailings, destroying areas up to ~5,000 km2, killing an estimated 2,650 people and impacting ~317,000 people through displacement, property damage, and risks to livelihoods and health. In this Review, we provide an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the causes, effects and response to TSF failures, applying a disaster risk reduction framework. TSF failures can occur owing to earthquakes, overtopping, weak foundations and liquefaction, among other mechanisms. The severities and volumes of TSF failures have increased since the year 2000, owing to increasing mine waste generation from the exploitation of larger, lower-grade deposits. Despite the increasingly severe impacts, the mining industry has been hesitant to use the term ‘disaster’ to analyse TSF failure, presumably to avoid liability. TSF failures should be considered as disasters when they cause severe disruption to the functioning of ecological and social systems. Future research should build on attempts to link tailings facility locations to situated risk factors by improving spatial and time series analysis, reducing reliance on corporate disclosures, and increasing the visibility of priority locations and patterns of concern. Mine tailings are voluminous and often toxic wastes, whose management is a global safety and sustainability challenge. This Review summarizes the major tailings storage facility disasters and impacts, emphasizing the urgent need for risk reduction approaches for management and policy.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"5 9","pages":"612-630"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141935422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-30DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00573-7
Guojian Wang, Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Nerilie Abram, Benjamin Ng, Kai Yang, Tao Geng, Takeshi Doi, Yan Du, Takeshi Izumo, Karumuri Ashok, Jianping Li, Tim Li, Sebastian McKenna, Shuangwen Sun, Tomoki Tozuka, Xiaotong Zheng, Yi Liu, Lixin Wu, Fan Jia, Shijian Hu, Xichen Li
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) strongly affects the climate of the Indo-Pacific. Observations suggest a shift towards stronger and earlier positive IOD (pIOD) events alongside an increased amplitude of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but uncertainty remains, impeding assessments of ongoing changes. In this Review, we synthesize the available knowledge of projected changes in the IOD during the twenty-first century under anthropogenic warming. Compared to observations, models struggle to simulate the Bjerknes feedback, asymmetry in the strength of positive and negative IOD anomalies and El Niño–Southern Oscillation or monsoonal forcings. Yet several models do capture important feedbacks reasonably well and offer useful tools with which to assess IOD evolution. A pIOD-like SST warming pattern (an enhanced west-minus-east SST gradient) alongside shifts in feedback process drive corresponding changes to the IOD. Over the course of the twenty-first century, robust changes include: enhanced IOD SST variability (as measured by the first principal component of spring SST variability, not the dipole mode index); an increase in strong rainfall pIOD events; an increase and decrease in the frequency of strong-pIOD and moderate-pIOD, respectively, as defined by SST; and an increase in the frequency of early-pIOD events. Palaeo evidence reveals similar increases in the magnitude and frequency of pIOD events underpinned by a similar pattern of mean state change (Last Glacial Maximum, post-1960), reinforcing IOD projections. Sustained international efforts are needed to improve IOD simulations and reduce projection uncertainties. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exerts strong control on the Indo-Pacific climate. This Review outlines twenty-first-century changes in the IOD, noting robust increases in eastern pole sea surface temperature variability, more frequent strong and early positive IOD events, and less frequent moderate positive IOD events.
{"title":"The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world","authors":"Guojian Wang, Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Nerilie Abram, Benjamin Ng, Kai Yang, Tao Geng, Takeshi Doi, Yan Du, Takeshi Izumo, Karumuri Ashok, Jianping Li, Tim Li, Sebastian McKenna, Shuangwen Sun, Tomoki Tozuka, Xiaotong Zheng, Yi Liu, Lixin Wu, Fan Jia, Shijian Hu, Xichen Li","doi":"10.1038/s43017-024-00573-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-024-00573-7","url":null,"abstract":"The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) strongly affects the climate of the Indo-Pacific. Observations suggest a shift towards stronger and earlier positive IOD (pIOD) events alongside an increased amplitude of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but uncertainty remains, impeding assessments of ongoing changes. In this Review, we synthesize the available knowledge of projected changes in the IOD during the twenty-first century under anthropogenic warming. Compared to observations, models struggle to simulate the Bjerknes feedback, asymmetry in the strength of positive and negative IOD anomalies and El Niño–Southern Oscillation or monsoonal forcings. Yet several models do capture important feedbacks reasonably well and offer useful tools with which to assess IOD evolution. A pIOD-like SST warming pattern (an enhanced west-minus-east SST gradient) alongside shifts in feedback process drive corresponding changes to the IOD. Over the course of the twenty-first century, robust changes include: enhanced IOD SST variability (as measured by the first principal component of spring SST variability, not the dipole mode index); an increase in strong rainfall pIOD events; an increase and decrease in the frequency of strong-pIOD and moderate-pIOD, respectively, as defined by SST; and an increase in the frequency of early-pIOD events. Palaeo evidence reveals similar increases in the magnitude and frequency of pIOD events underpinned by a similar pattern of mean state change (Last Glacial Maximum, post-1960), reinforcing IOD projections. Sustained international efforts are needed to improve IOD simulations and reduce projection uncertainties. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exerts strong control on the Indo-Pacific climate. This Review outlines twenty-first-century changes in the IOD, noting robust increases in eastern pole sea surface temperature variability, more frequent strong and early positive IOD events, and less frequent moderate positive IOD events.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"5 8","pages":"588-604"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141864024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：