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Disproportionate impact of atmospheric heat events on lake surface water temperature increases 大气热事件对湖泊表层水温上升的影响不成比例
IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02122-y
Xiwen Wang, Kun Shi, Boqiang Qin, Yunlin Zhang, R. Iestyn Woolway
Hot temperature extremes (HTEs) in the atmosphere can also affect lake surface water temperature, but how this impact changes with global warming is not well understood. Here we use numerical modelling and satellite observations to quantify the contribution of HTEs to variations in summer lake surface water temperature and lake heatwaves in 1,260 water bodies worldwide between 1979 and 2022. Over this time period, HTE duration and cumulative intensity over the studied lakes increased significantly, at average rates of 1.4 days per decade and 0.92 °C days per decade, respectively. Despite only accounting for 7% of the total summer days, HTEs are responsible for 24% of lake surface summer warming trends, with the most pronounced effect observed in Europe at 27%. Moreover, HTEs are key drivers of both the duration and cumulative intensity of lake heatwaves. Our findings underscore the pivotal role played by short-term climatic extreme events in shaping long-term lake surface water temperature dynamics. Lake surface water temperatures have increased over recent decades, mainly driven by atmospheric conditions. Here the authors demonstrate that heat events drive a disproportionately large part of this lake surface warming and increases in lake heatwaves.
大气中的极端高温(HTEs)也会影响湖泊表层水温,但这种影响如何随着全球变暖而变化还不十分清楚。在此,我们利用数值模拟和卫星观测,量化了1979年至2022年期间全球1260个水体的热极端温度对夏季湖泊表层水温变化和湖泊热浪的影响。在此期间,所研究湖泊的热浪持续时间和累积强度显著增加,平均速率分别为每十年 1.4 天和每十年 0.92 °C 天。尽管 HTE 仅占夏季总天数的 7%,但却造成了 24% 的湖面夏季变暖趋势,其中欧洲的影响最为明显,达到 27%。此外,高温热浪是湖泊热浪持续时间和累积强度的主要驱动因素。我们的发现强调了短期极端气候事件在塑造长期湖泊表层水温动态中的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Acceleration of Drosophila subobscura evolutionary response to global warming in Europe 欧洲亚种果蝇对全球变暖的进化反应加快
IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02128-6
Francisco Rodríguez-Trelles, Rosa Tarrío
The increasing risk of irreversible ecological transformation under global warming has boosted the need to understand the capacity of organisms to adapt to this change. Here, using a resurvey method of populations of the European fly Drosophila subobscura, we show that a known evolutionary response to global warming has accelerated in the past 20 years, in step with regional warming. This genetic response has come entirely by resorting pre-existing variation—and not from novel inversions—for tolerance to high temperature. Temperate populations are predicted to converge to the typical Mediterranean chromosomal composition by the mid-2050s, at which point this classic example of steep genetic cline will have vanished. Our results suggest that species with broad geographic ranges, large population sizes and high genetic diversity may have the evolutionary potential to cope with climate change. The authors resurvey data from the present, late 1960s and late 1990s to understand the evolution of European Drosophila fly populations. They show that genetic changes in temperate regions have accelerated in line with warming and come from pre-existing rather than new variation.
在全球变暖的情况下,生态发生不可逆转变化的风险越来越大,这促使人们需要了解生物适应这种变化的能力。在这里,我们利用对欧洲果蝇种群的重新调查方法表明,在过去的 20 年中,已知的对全球变暖的进化反应与区域变暖同步加快。这种遗传响应完全是通过利用已有的变异--而不是新的反转--来实现对高温的耐受性。据预测,到 2050 年代中期,温带种群将向典型的地中海染色体组成靠拢,届时这种典型的陡峭遗传系谱将消失。我们的研究结果表明,地理范围广、种群规模大、遗传多样性高的物种可能具有应对气候变化的进化潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Fisheries track the future redistribution of marine species 渔业跟踪海洋物种未来的重新分布情况
IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02127-7
Leonardo Cruz, Maria Pennino, Priscila Lopes
The redistribution of fish stocks induced by climate change is expected to have global implications for fisheries, particularly the poleward shifts of species. However, the responses of different fishing gears and fleet of countries and their potential attempts to spatially redistribute catches remain unknown. Here, by developing environmental niche models for industrial fisheries of 82 countries and 13 fishing gears, we demonstrate that without management, global fleets are expected to shift poleward by the end of the century. This is driven by polar fishing gears moving to higher Arctic areas and tropical fishing gears expanding both within the tropics and poleward. Most nations, particularly tropical ones, may struggle to track these shifts, as they largely rely on coastal and nearshore fishing gears, such as trawlers. Our findings highlight the need to consider future shifts of fisheries in their management, to ensure the long-term sustainability and accessibility of fish stocks. The authors consider environmental niche models for the current and future distribution of fishing fleets and gear from 82 countries. Despite overall redistribution of fleets to the poles, they show that most nations—particularly tropical ones—may struggle to track expected fish stock shifts.
气候变化引起的鱼类种群重新分布预计将对全球渔业产生影响,特别是物种的极地转移。然而,各国不同渔具和船队的反应及其重新分配渔获量的潜在尝试仍是未知数。在这里,通过为 82 个国家的工业化渔业和 13 种渔具建立环境生态位模型,我们证明,如果不进行管理,预计到本世纪末,全球船队将向极地转移。其驱动力是极地渔具向北极高纬度地区转移,热带渔具在热带地区内和向极地扩展。大多数国家,尤其是热带国家,可能难以跟踪这些变化,因为它们主要依赖沿海和近岸渔具,如拖网渔船。我们的研究结果凸显了在渔业管理中考虑未来渔业变化的必要性,以确保鱼类种群的长期可持续性和可获取性。
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引用次数: 0
Underestimation of personal carbon footprint inequality in four diverse countries 低估四个不同国家的个人碳足迹不平等现象
IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02130-y
Kristian S. Nielsen, Jan M. Bauer, Ramit Debnath, Charles A. Emogor, Sonja M. Geiger, Sakshi Ghai, Wencke Gwozdz, Ulf J. J. Hahnel
Extensive research highlights global and within-country inequality in personal carbon footprints. However, the extent to which people are aware of these inequalities remains unclear. Here we use an online survey distributed across four diverse countries: Denmark, India, Nigeria and the USA, to show widespread underestimation of carbon footprint inequality, irrespective of participants’ country and income segment. Of the 4,003 participants, within each country, 50% of participants were sampled from the top 10% income group. Our results show links between carbon footprint inequality perceptions and climate policy support, but with significant variations observed across the four countries and with participants’ income segments. Furthermore, there are links to the perceived fairness of actual carbon footprint inequality, highlighting the need to raise awareness about carbon footprint inequality and further unpack its implications for climate justice and policy. Existing studies show carbon footprint inequality between and within countries, but awareness of this inequality is unclear. This study finds widespread underestimation of carbon footprint inequality and its associations with climate policy support and perceived fairness.
大量研究表明,全球和国家内部在个人碳足迹方面存在不平等。然而,人们对这些不平等现象的认识程度仍不清楚。在这里,我们使用了一项分布在四个不同国家的在线调查:在此,我们通过一项分布于丹麦、印度、尼日利亚和美国四个不同国家的在线调查,显示出人们普遍低估了碳足迹的不平等,而与参与者所在的国家和收入阶层无关。在每个国家的 4,003 名参与者中,50% 的参与者来自收入最高的 10%。我们的研究结果表明,碳足迹不平等认知与气候政策支持之间存在联系,但在四个国家和参与者的收入阶层之间存在显著差异。此外,实际碳足迹不平等的公平感也存在联系,这突出表明有必要提高人们对碳足迹不平等的认识,并进一步解读其对气候正义和政策的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Global patterns and drivers of tropical aboveground carbon changes 热带地上碳变化的全球模式和驱动因素
IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02115-x
Yu Feng, Philippe Ciais, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Yidi Xu, Alan D. Ziegler, Dave van Wees, Arthur Nicolaus Fendrich, Dominick V. Spracklen, Stephen Sitch, Martin Brandt, Wei Li, Lei Fan, Xiaojun Li, Jie Wu, Zhenzhong Zeng
Tropical terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in modulating the global carbon balance. However, the complex dynamics and factors controlling tropical aboveground live biomass carbon (AGC) are not fully understood. Here, using remotely sensed observations, we find a moderate net AGC sink of 0.21 ± 0.06 PgC yr−1 throughout the global tropics from 2010 to 2020. This arises from a gross loss of −1.79 PgC yr−1 offset by a marked gain of 2.01 ± 0.06 PgC yr−1. Fire emissions in non-forested African shrubland/savanna biomes, coupled with post-fire carbon recovery, substantially dominated the interannual variability of tropical AGC. Fire radiative power was identified as the primary determinant of the spatial variability in AGC gains, with soil moisture also playing a crucial role in shaping trends. We highlight the dominant roles of anthropogenic and hydroclimatic determinants in orchestrating tropical land carbon dynamics and advocate for land management to conserve indispensable ecosystem services worldwide. Tropical aboveground biomass carbon is a crucial, yet complex, component of the terrestrial C budget. Here remote observations demonstrate that fire emissions and post-fire recovery in non-forested African biomes dominate the interannual variability of aboveground biomass carbon, which acts as a moderate net C sink.
热带陆地生态系统在调节全球碳平衡方面发挥着重要作用。然而,人们对控制热带地上活生物质碳(AGC)的复杂动态和因素并不完全了解。在此,我们利用遥感观测数据发现,从 2010 年到 2020 年,全球热带地区的 AGC 年均净吸收量为 0.21 ± 0.06 PgC。这源于-1.79 PgC yr-1的总损失被2.01 ± 0.06 PgC yr-1的显著增加所抵消。非洲非森林灌木林/热带草原生物群落的火灾排放,加上火灾后的碳恢复,在很大程度上主导了热带 AGC 的年际变化。火灾辐射力被认为是 AGC 增益空间变化的主要决定因素,土壤湿度也在形成趋势方面发挥了关键作用。我们强调了人为因素和水文气候决定因素在协调热带陆地碳动态中的主导作用,并倡导通过土地管理来保护全球不可或缺的生态系统服务。
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引用次数: 0
A focus group study of ethical issues during climate-informed health decision-making 关于根据气候做出健康决策过程中的伦理问题的焦点小组研究
IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02121-z
Andrew Hantel, Emily Senay, Cristina Richie, Anna Revette, Brett Nava-Coulter, Fay J. Hlubocky, Thomas P. Walsh, Mark Siegler, Gregory A. Abel
Healthcare delivery contributes to carbon emissions, exacerbating climate change and its associated health impacts. There is limited understanding of stakeholder views regarding ethical issues at the intersection of health choices and environmental impact. Here we performed a qualitative study involving seven focus groups with 46 participants who were patients and physicians in the northeastern US health systems. Both patients and physicians were amenable to health decisions that are beneficial for the environment and health. A consumptive healthcare system impeded both groups’ assumption of health-related climate responsibilities. Physicians, however, underestimated patients’ interest in discussing the environmental impacts of health decisions. Patients expressed tension between a personal interest in limiting climate change through health choices and ensuring others were also accountable; they were also concerned that physician paternalism might impede climate-informed health conversations. These findings outline barriers to climate-informed healthcare and begin to establish how they can be addressed. Healthcare emissions negatively affect the environment and health, posing ethical questions between health and environmental impacts. A focus group study in US health systems revealed a willingness to make environmentally informed health decisions and identified barriers to making such decisions.
医疗保健服务造成了碳排放,加剧了气候变化及其对健康的相关影响。对于利益相关者对健康选择与环境影响交叉点上的伦理问题的看法,我们的了解还很有限。在此,我们开展了一项定性研究,其中包括 7 个焦点小组,46 名参与者分别是美国东北部医疗系统的患者和医生。患者和医生都赞成有利于环境和健康的医疗决策。消耗性医疗系统阻碍了这两个群体承担与健康相关的气候责任。然而,医生低估了患者对讨论健康决策对环境影响的兴趣。患者表示,他们既希望通过健康选择来限制气候变化,又希望确保他人也承担责任;他们还担心医生的家长式作风可能会阻碍他们进行气候知情的健康对话。这些发现概述了气候知情医疗保健的障碍,并开始确定如何解决这些障碍。
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引用次数: 0
Energy from buildings is key to a warming climate 建筑能源是气候变暖的关键
IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02131-x
Jorge E. González-Cruz
The energy used to heat or cool buildings does not only contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, but also to other direct forms of heat exchange between buildings and their environment. A study now quantifies the feedback between buildings and their surrounding temperatures, yielding more reliable estimates of the contribution of heating and cooling to local and global warming and better estimates of regional energy demands.
用于建筑物供暖或制冷的能源不仅会造成温室气体排放,还会造成建筑物与其环境之间其他形式的直接热交换。现在,一项研究对建筑物与其周围温度之间的反馈进行了量化,从而更可靠地估算出供暖和制冷对当地和全球变暖的影响,并更好地估算出区域能源需求。
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引用次数: 0
Elevated urban energy risks due to climate-driven biophysical feedbacks 气候驱动的生物物理反馈导致城市能源风险上升
IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02108-w
Xinchang ‘Cathy’ Li, Lei Zhao, Yue Qin, Keith Oleson, Yiwen Zhang
Climate-driven impacts on future urban heating and cooling (H&C) energy demand are critical to sustainable energy planning. Existing global H&C projections are predominantly made without accounting for future two-way biophysical feedbacks between urban climate and H&C use. Here, using a hybrid modelling framework we show that the prevalent degree-days methods misrepresent the magnitude, nonlinearity and uncertainty in the climate-driven projections of H&C energy demand changes due to the missing two-way feedbacks. We find a 220% increase (47% decrease) in cooling (heating) energy demand with amplified uncertainty by 2099 under a very high emission scenario, roughly twice that projected by previous methods. The spatially diverse H&C demand responses to the warming climates highlight the disparate challenges faced by individual cities and necessitate urban energy planning accounting for local climate–energy interactions. Our study underscores the critical necessity of explicit and dynamic modelling of urban H&C energy use for climate-sensitive energy planning. Climate change affects the energy demand for heating and cooling in cities, which in turn leads to additional urban warming. Here, the authors show that when including such two-way biophysical feedbacks, the cooling (heating) energy demand more than doubles (is halved) under high emissions.
气候对未来城市供热和制冷(H&C)能源需求的影响对可持续能源规划至关重要。现有的全球 H&C 预测主要是在没有考虑未来城市气候与 H&C 使用之间的双向生物物理反馈的情况下做出的。在此,我们利用混合建模框架表明,由于双向反馈的缺失,流行的度日方法错误地反映了气候驱动的 H&C 能源需求变化预测的幅度、非线性和不确定性。我们发现,在极高排放情景下,到 2099 年,制冷(供暖)能源需求将增加 220%(减少 47%),且不确定性增大,大约是以前方法预测的两倍。对气候变暖的不同空间的 H&C 需求反应凸显了各个城市所面临的不同挑战,因此有必要在城市能源规划中考虑当地气候与能源的相互作用。我们的研究强调了对城市 H&C 能源使用进行明确和动态建模对于气候敏感型能源规划的极端必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Biomethane produced from maize grown on peat emits more CO2 than natural gas 用泥炭上种植的玉米生产的生物甲烷比天然气排放更多的二氧化碳
IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02111-1
Chris D. Evans, Rebecca L. Rowe, Benjamin W. J. Freeman, Jennifer M. Rhymes, Alex Cumming, Isobel L. Lloyd, Daniel Morton, Jennifer L. Williamson, Ross Morrison
Cultivation of maize for biomethane production has expanded rapidly, including on drained peat soils. The resulting soil CO2 emissions at the point of feedstock production are largely overlooked when assessing biogas climate mitigation potential. On the basis of field-scale flux measurements, we calculate that soil CO2 emissions from biomethane feedstock production on drained peat exceed embodied emissions for an equivalent amount of natural gas by up to a factor of three. Biogas is promoted as an alternative fuel with the potential to lower net CO2 emissions. However, here the authors calculate that growing biogas feedstock crops on drained peatlands may produce three times more CO2 than burning natural gas.
用于生产生物甲烷的玉米种植面积迅速扩大,包括在排水泥炭土上。在评估沼气气候减缓潜力时,原料生产过程中产生的土壤二氧化碳排放量在很大程度上被忽视了。根据实地尺度的通量测量,我们计算出,在排水泥炭上生产生物甲烷原料所产生的土壤二氧化碳排放量比等量天然气的体现排放量最多高出三倍。
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引用次数: 0
Community interventions 社区干预措施
IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02123-x
Danyang Cheng
{"title":"Community interventions","authors":"Danyang Cheng","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02123-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02123-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 9","pages":"896-896"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142143873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Nature Climate Change
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