Pub Date : 2025-11-20DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02505-9
Yi Yang, Gang Liu, You Li, Xiaoyong Liao, Yonghua Li
Objective assessments indicate that extreme heat is increasing health risks; however, many of the most exposed populations do not perceive extreme heat as risky. This misperception may undermine public awareness of the need for effective cooling strategies, leaving a dangerous blind spot in adaptation and protection.
{"title":"Misalignment between objective and perceived heat risks","authors":"Yi Yang, Gang Liu, You Li, Xiaoyong Liao, Yonghua Li","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02505-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02505-9","url":null,"abstract":"Objective assessments indicate that extreme heat is increasing health risks; however, many of the most exposed populations do not perceive extreme heat as risky. This misperception may undermine public awareness of the need for effective cooling strategies, leaving a dangerous blind spot in adaptation and protection.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1261-1263"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145554251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-18DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02480-1
Christopher W. Callahan, Jared Trok, Andrew J. Wilson, Carlos F. Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
The potential death toll of exceptional extreme heat events is crucial for climate risk analysis and adaptation planning but may not be captured by existing projections. Here we combine machine learning-based projections of five historical European heat waves under present or future global temperatures with empirical exposure–response functions to quantify the potential for extreme heat events to generate mass mortality. For example, if August 2003 meteorological conditions recur at the recent annual global temperature anomaly of 1.5 °C, we project 17,800 excess deaths across Europe in one week, rising to 32,000 at 3 °C. This mortality is comparable to peak COVID-19 mortality in Europe and is not substantially reduced by climate adaptation currently observed across Europe. Our results suggest that while mitigating further global warming can reduce heat mortality, mass mortality events remain plausible at near-future temperatures despite current adaptations to heat. The authors couple calculations of historical heatwave intensity at present and future global temperatures with exposure–response functions to quantify mortality from extreme heat events in Europe. They project tens of thousands of excess deaths, with limited attenuation from existing adaptations.
{"title":"Increasing risk of mass human heat mortality if historical weather patterns recur","authors":"Christopher W. Callahan, Jared Trok, Andrew J. Wilson, Carlos F. Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02480-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02480-1","url":null,"abstract":"The potential death toll of exceptional extreme heat events is crucial for climate risk analysis and adaptation planning but may not be captured by existing projections. Here we combine machine learning-based projections of five historical European heat waves under present or future global temperatures with empirical exposure–response functions to quantify the potential for extreme heat events to generate mass mortality. For example, if August 2003 meteorological conditions recur at the recent annual global temperature anomaly of 1.5 °C, we project 17,800 excess deaths across Europe in one week, rising to 32,000 at 3 °C. This mortality is comparable to peak COVID-19 mortality in Europe and is not substantially reduced by climate adaptation currently observed across Europe. Our results suggest that while mitigating further global warming can reduce heat mortality, mass mortality events remain plausible at near-future temperatures despite current adaptations to heat. The authors couple calculations of historical heatwave intensity at present and future global temperatures with exposure–response functions to quantify mortality from extreme heat events in Europe. They project tens of thousands of excess deaths, with limited attenuation from existing adaptations.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"26-32"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02480-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145536157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-18DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02500-0
Climate change threatens biodiversity, but the transfer of genes between species via hybridization can enhance climate resilience. This research demonstrates that hybrid mountain birds show reduced climate vulnerability, highlighting how maintaining natural gene flow can mitigate extinction risks and is crucial for conserving species with narrow environmental tolerances.
{"title":"Gene flow between mountainous birds buffers climate change risk","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02500-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02500-0","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change threatens biodiversity, but the transfer of genes between species via hybridization can enhance climate resilience. This research demonstrates that hybrid mountain birds show reduced climate vulnerability, highlighting how maintaining natural gene flow can mitigate extinction risks and is crucial for conserving species with narrow environmental tolerances.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1281-1282"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145536228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02478-9
Chunhu Xie, Jiuxin Shi, Dapeng Li, Yongming Sun, Jindong Jiang, Guy D. Williams
Over recent decades, the Southern Ocean’s westerly winds have intensified and shifted poleward, whereas the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through the Drake Passage has remained stable. Here using satellite altimetry data, we define the interannual evolution of the ACC’s dynamical boundaries and identify a significant southward shift of its Northern Boundary (NB) over the past three decades, with the most rapid migration (up to 1.1° per decade) occurring in the Southeast Pacific. Ocean reanalysis confirms that volume transport within the ACC’s boundaries remains stable across the circumpolar Southern Ocean, despite a strengthening eastward flow concentrated near the migrating NB. The migrating NB redirects this intensified flow into the subtropical gyre, strengthening the Southern Ocean supergyre while maintaining stable ACC transport. These results resolve the paradox of stronger zonal flows coexisting with stable ACC transport, providing insight into changing Southern Ocean dynamics and their climate implications. Climate change is altering the strength and position of Southern Ocean westerly winds but the ocean transport is stable. Here the authors use sea surface height to show that a poleward shift of the northern boundary and changing dynamics maintain the circumpolar transport.
{"title":"Southward shift of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current upstream of Drake Passage maintains a stable circumpolar transport","authors":"Chunhu Xie, Jiuxin Shi, Dapeng Li, Yongming Sun, Jindong Jiang, Guy D. Williams","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02478-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02478-9","url":null,"abstract":"Over recent decades, the Southern Ocean’s westerly winds have intensified and shifted poleward, whereas the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through the Drake Passage has remained stable. Here using satellite altimetry data, we define the interannual evolution of the ACC’s dynamical boundaries and identify a significant southward shift of its Northern Boundary (NB) over the past three decades, with the most rapid migration (up to 1.1° per decade) occurring in the Southeast Pacific. Ocean reanalysis confirms that volume transport within the ACC’s boundaries remains stable across the circumpolar Southern Ocean, despite a strengthening eastward flow concentrated near the migrating NB. The migrating NB redirects this intensified flow into the subtropical gyre, strengthening the Southern Ocean supergyre while maintaining stable ACC transport. These results resolve the paradox of stronger zonal flows coexisting with stable ACC transport, providing insight into changing Southern Ocean dynamics and their climate implications. Climate change is altering the strength and position of Southern Ocean westerly winds but the ocean transport is stable. Here the authors use sea surface height to show that a poleward shift of the northern boundary and changing dynamics maintain the circumpolar transport.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1324-1332"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145531845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-17DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02509-5
Benjamin P. Goldstein, Rylie E. O. Pelton, Dimitrios Gounaridis, Jennifer Schmitt, Nathaniel Springer, Joshua P. Newell
{"title":"Author Correction: The carbon hoofprint of cities is shaped by geography and production in the livestock supply chain","authors":"Benjamin P. Goldstein, Rylie E. O. Pelton, Dimitrios Gounaridis, Jennifer Schmitt, Nathaniel Springer, Joshua P. Newell","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02509-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02509-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1388-1388"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02509-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145531737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anthropogenic climate change has exacerbated soil moisture droughts globally, yet this exacerbation in their spatiotemporal evolution in terms of soil vertical structure remains unclear. Here we propose a Lagrangian four-dimensional tracking framework to identify a type of spatial (horizontal and vertical)–temporal contiguous drought events, that is, deep droughts characterized by bottom-heavy deep-dominated shapes, with more extensive moisture deficits in deep than surface soils. These deep droughts, accounting for a quarter of total events, are ignored in surface-based soil moisture monitoring. Both reanalyses and climate models show significantly increasing duration and intensity of the deep droughts over the past four decades, attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Relative to the past, future deep droughts are projected to become longer-lasting and more intense globally, with larger increases in deeper soil layers under higher-emission scenarios. These deep droughts hidden below the surface pose challenges for satellite-based agricultural drought monitoring and cause an underestimation of adverse impacts of droughts on ecosystems. How the conditions in soil layers below the surface change is not well understood. Here the authors assess changes in subsurface soil moisture, finding that these droughts also become more persistent and intense than surface droughts.
{"title":"Anthropogenic enhancement of subsurface soil moisture droughts","authors":"Yansong Guan, Xihui Gu, Aiguo Dai, Tianjun Zhou, Xing Yuan, Ashok K. Mishra, Jakob Zscheischler, Yadu Pokhrel, Lunche Wang, Jianfeng Li, Shengzhi Huang, Sijia Luo, Liangwei Li, Dongdong Kong, Xiang Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02458-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02458-z","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic climate change has exacerbated soil moisture droughts globally, yet this exacerbation in their spatiotemporal evolution in terms of soil vertical structure remains unclear. Here we propose a Lagrangian four-dimensional tracking framework to identify a type of spatial (horizontal and vertical)–temporal contiguous drought events, that is, deep droughts characterized by bottom-heavy deep-dominated shapes, with more extensive moisture deficits in deep than surface soils. These deep droughts, accounting for a quarter of total events, are ignored in surface-based soil moisture monitoring. Both reanalyses and climate models show significantly increasing duration and intensity of the deep droughts over the past four decades, attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Relative to the past, future deep droughts are projected to become longer-lasting and more intense globally, with larger increases in deeper soil layers under higher-emission scenarios. These deep droughts hidden below the surface pose challenges for satellite-based agricultural drought monitoring and cause an underestimation of adverse impacts of droughts on ecosystems. How the conditions in soil layers below the surface change is not well understood. Here the authors assess changes in subsurface soil moisture, finding that these droughts also become more persistent and intense than surface droughts.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1355-1362"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145509006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02493-w
Yunqiang Wang, Zimin Li
Anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating soil moisture droughts globally, but most studies only consider surface layers. Now, a study reveals that global soil moisture droughts are often also found in deeper layers, and that in a warming climate deep soil moisture droughts are projected to become longer lasting and more severe.
{"title":"Hidden deep soil moisture droughts","authors":"Yunqiang Wang, Zimin Li","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02493-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02493-w","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating soil moisture droughts globally, but most studies only consider surface layers. Now, a study reveals that global soil moisture droughts are often also found in deeper layers, and that in a warming climate deep soil moisture droughts are projected to become longer lasting and more severe.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1273-1274"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145509009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02476-x
E. M. Wolkovich, Ailene K. Ettinger, Alana R. Chin, Catherine J. Chamberlain, Frederik Baumgarten, Kavya Pradhan, Rubén D. Manzanedo, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers
Most climate change forecasts assume that longer growing seasons increase carbon storage through increased tree growth, but recent findings have challenged this assumption. Here we highlight divergent findings across studies, spanning diverse methods and disciplinary perspectives. Current hypotheses for why longer growing seasons may not always increase tree growth include drought-related effects and internal constraints. These hypotheses, however, are generally tested in different ways by different fields on different species, and rarely consider how external drivers and internal constraints interact. We outline how bridging these divides while integrating evolutionary history and ecological theory could help build a unified model across species for when longer seasons will—or will not—lead to greater tree growth, with major forecasting implications. In this Progress Article, the authors discuss why longer growing seasons under climate change may or may not increase tree growth. They highlight differences across fields, as well as research gaps, and propose three major open questions to guide future research.
{"title":"Why longer seasons with climate change may not increase tree growth","authors":"E. M. Wolkovich, Ailene K. Ettinger, Alana R. Chin, Catherine J. Chamberlain, Frederik Baumgarten, Kavya Pradhan, Rubén D. Manzanedo, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02476-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02476-x","url":null,"abstract":"Most climate change forecasts assume that longer growing seasons increase carbon storage through increased tree growth, but recent findings have challenged this assumption. Here we highlight divergent findings across studies, spanning diverse methods and disciplinary perspectives. Current hypotheses for why longer growing seasons may not always increase tree growth include drought-related effects and internal constraints. These hypotheses, however, are generally tested in different ways by different fields on different species, and rarely consider how external drivers and internal constraints interact. We outline how bridging these divides while integrating evolutionary history and ecological theory could help build a unified model across species for when longer seasons will—or will not—lead to greater tree growth, with major forecasting implications. In this Progress Article, the authors discuss why longer growing seasons under climate change may or may not increase tree growth. They highlight differences across fields, as well as research gaps, and propose three major open questions to guide future research.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1283-1292"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145509011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-13DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02495-8
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation describes the most important pattern of low-frequency climate variability in the North Pacific. An analysis of sea surface temperatures reveals that, since 2014, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation’s influence has been superseded by that of basin-wide warming, producing novel expressions of ocean variability and unexpected ecological impacts.
{"title":"Warming overpowers low-frequency North Pacific climate variability","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02495-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02495-8","url":null,"abstract":"The Pacific Decadal Oscillation describes the most important pattern of low-frequency climate variability in the North Pacific. An analysis of sea surface temperatures reveals that, since 2014, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation’s influence has been superseded by that of basin-wide warming, producing novel expressions of ocean variability and unexpected ecological impacts.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1279-1280"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145498486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-12DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02481-0
Alice S. A. Johnston, Jiyoung Kim, Jim A. Harris
Artificial light pollution is increasing worldwide with pervasive effects on ecosystem structure and function, yet its influence on ecosystem metabolism remains largely unknown. Here we combine artificial light at night (ALAN) intensity metrics with eddy covariance observations across 86 sites in North America and Europe to show that ALAN indirectly decreases annual net ecosystem exchange by enhancing ecosystem respiration (Re). At half-hourly and daily scales, we detect consistent nonlinear interactions between ALAN and night duration, with Re increasing under higher ALAN and partially decoupling from gross primary production. At the annual scale, gross primary production shows no direct ALAN response and is instead influenced by the growing season length and urban proximity, whereas Re responds more strongly and consistently across timescales. Our findings show that ALAN disrupts the fundamental energetic constraints on ecosystem metabolism, warranting the inclusion of light pollution in global change and carbon–climate feedback assessments. The authors combine light intensity data with eddy covariance observations from 86 sites to show that artificial light at night increases ecosystem respiration and alters carbon exchange, with impacts shaped by diel cycles and seasonal dynamics.
{"title":"Widespread influence of artificial light at night on ecosystem metabolism","authors":"Alice S. A. Johnston, Jiyoung Kim, Jim A. Harris","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02481-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02481-0","url":null,"abstract":"Artificial light pollution is increasing worldwide with pervasive effects on ecosystem structure and function, yet its influence on ecosystem metabolism remains largely unknown. Here we combine artificial light at night (ALAN) intensity metrics with eddy covariance observations across 86 sites in North America and Europe to show that ALAN indirectly decreases annual net ecosystem exchange by enhancing ecosystem respiration (Re). At half-hourly and daily scales, we detect consistent nonlinear interactions between ALAN and night duration, with Re increasing under higher ALAN and partially decoupling from gross primary production. At the annual scale, gross primary production shows no direct ALAN response and is instead influenced by the growing season length and urban proximity, whereas Re responds more strongly and consistently across timescales. Our findings show that ALAN disrupts the fundamental energetic constraints on ecosystem metabolism, warranting the inclusion of light pollution in global change and carbon–climate feedback assessments. The authors combine light intensity data with eddy covariance observations from 86 sites to show that artificial light at night increases ecosystem respiration and alters carbon exchange, with impacts shaped by diel cycles and seasonal dynamics.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1371-1377"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02481-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145492649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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