Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02553-1
Gengxin Chen, Weiqing Han, Aixue Hu, Gerald A. Meehl, Arnold L. Gordon, Toshiaki Shinoda, Nan Rosenbloom, Lei Zhang, Yukio Masumoto
Understanding ocean freshwater variability is key to assessing the global water cycle and climate change, but changes in freshwater storage and transport remain unclear. Here we show that the South Indian Ocean—a vital conduit for interocean exchange—has experienced the strongest freshening in the Southern Hemisphere since the 1960s. This freshening drives a southward expansion of the Indo-Pacific freshwater pool into the South Indian Ocean, where freshwater has increased by 6.5 ± 0.5% per decade, as indicated by the shrinking 35.3 psu isohaline. Strengthened Indonesian Throughflow and intensified Subtropical Gyre inflow are the primary causes. In the upper ~200 m, freshening follows a new subtropical pathway rather than the usual tropical route. These changes arise from wind shifts linked to the Hadley cell’s poleward expansion and a stronger Indonesian Throughflow, both driven by warm-pool warming. Ongoing warming will further expand the freshwater pool and broaden the subtropical pathway, affecting climate, interocean exchange and marine ecosystems. Ocean salinity could change as the climate warms. Here the authors show that the South Indian Ocean has freshened most of the Southern Hemisphere oceans and highlight the mechanisms behind this freshening, as well as the implications for Indian Ocean stratification and structure.
{"title":"The expanding Indo-Pacific freshwater pool and changing freshwater pathway in the South Indian Ocean","authors":"Gengxin Chen, Weiqing Han, Aixue Hu, Gerald A. Meehl, Arnold L. Gordon, Toshiaki Shinoda, Nan Rosenbloom, Lei Zhang, Yukio Masumoto","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02553-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02553-1","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding ocean freshwater variability is key to assessing the global water cycle and climate change, but changes in freshwater storage and transport remain unclear. Here we show that the South Indian Ocean—a vital conduit for interocean exchange—has experienced the strongest freshening in the Southern Hemisphere since the 1960s. This freshening drives a southward expansion of the Indo-Pacific freshwater pool into the South Indian Ocean, where freshwater has increased by 6.5 ± 0.5% per decade, as indicated by the shrinking 35.3 psu isohaline. Strengthened Indonesian Throughflow and intensified Subtropical Gyre inflow are the primary causes. In the upper ~200 m, freshening follows a new subtropical pathway rather than the usual tropical route. These changes arise from wind shifts linked to the Hadley cell’s poleward expansion and a stronger Indonesian Throughflow, both driven by warm-pool warming. Ongoing warming will further expand the freshwater pool and broaden the subtropical pathway, affecting climate, interocean exchange and marine ecosystems. Ocean salinity could change as the climate warms. Here the authors show that the South Indian Ocean has freshened most of the Southern Hemisphere oceans and highlight the mechanisms behind this freshening, as well as the implications for Indian Ocean stratification and structure.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"331-340"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146102128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-02DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02528-2
Wenyu Li, Hui Lu, Jing M. Chen, Shilong Piao, Trevor F. Keenan, Guofang Miao, Qiang Liu, Zhou Zang, Nan Xu, Jane Liu, Qu Cheng, Han Wang, Rong Wang, Wenjie Ji, Peng Zhu, Congcong Li, Qinchuan Xin, Peng Gong
The leaf-onset date is sensitive to climate warming. It is widely reported that the temperature sensitivity of the leaf-onset date (ST) of deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) may decrease under dormancy-period warming. However, evidence of how boreal-DBF ST may generally change under dormancy-period warming is still lacking. Here, by analysing climate and satellite data, we find that, between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012, 74% of all 0.5° × 0.5° boreal-DBF-containing grid cells with a rise in boreal-DBF dormancy-period temperature exhibited an increase in boreal-DBF ST. We demonstrate that the observed general increase in boreal-DBF ST is largely attributable to a warming-related enhancement in dormancy-period chilling accumulation. Furthermore, we show that phenology models systematically underestimated the magnitude of the observed change in the mean boreal-DBF ST across all boreal-DBF-containing grid cells by a mean of 85%. This study has implications for improving phenology models and understanding the carbon cycle in boreal regions. The authors consider the changing sensitivity of the leaf-onset date to temperature (ST) for boreal deciduous broadleaf forests. ST increased between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012—potentially linked to enhanced chilling accumulation—but this increase is underestimated in phenology models.
{"title":"Enhanced effect of warming on the leaf-onset date of boreal deciduous broadleaf forest","authors":"Wenyu Li, Hui Lu, Jing M. Chen, Shilong Piao, Trevor F. Keenan, Guofang Miao, Qiang Liu, Zhou Zang, Nan Xu, Jane Liu, Qu Cheng, Han Wang, Rong Wang, Wenjie Ji, Peng Zhu, Congcong Li, Qinchuan Xin, Peng Gong","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02528-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02528-2","url":null,"abstract":"The leaf-onset date is sensitive to climate warming. It is widely reported that the temperature sensitivity of the leaf-onset date (ST) of deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) may decrease under dormancy-period warming. However, evidence of how boreal-DBF ST may generally change under dormancy-period warming is still lacking. Here, by analysing climate and satellite data, we find that, between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012, 74% of all 0.5° × 0.5° boreal-DBF-containing grid cells with a rise in boreal-DBF dormancy-period temperature exhibited an increase in boreal-DBF ST. We demonstrate that the observed general increase in boreal-DBF ST is largely attributable to a warming-related enhancement in dormancy-period chilling accumulation. Furthermore, we show that phenology models systematically underestimated the magnitude of the observed change in the mean boreal-DBF ST across all boreal-DBF-containing grid cells by a mean of 85%. This study has implications for improving phenology models and understanding the carbon cycle in boreal regions. The authors consider the changing sensitivity of the leaf-onset date to temperature (ST) for boreal deciduous broadleaf forests. ST increased between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012—potentially linked to enhanced chilling accumulation—but this increase is underestimated in phenology models.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"200-206"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146102130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5
Ruben Prütz, Joeri Rogelj, Gaurav Ganti, Jeff Price, Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Yazhen Wu, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Michael Wögerer, Tamás Krisztin, Petr Havlík, Florian Kraxner, Stefan Frank, Tomoko Hasegawa, Jonathan C. Doelman, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, Sabine Fuss
Pathways consistent with global climate objectives typically deploy billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from land-intensive methods such as forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Such large-scale deployment of land-intensive CDR may have negative consequences for biodiversity. Here we assess scenarios across five integrated assessment models and show that scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C allocate up to 13% of global areas of high biodiversity importance for land-intensive CDR. These overlaps are distributed unevenly, with higher shares in low- and middle-income countries. Understanding the potential conflicts between climate action and biodiversity conservation is crucial. An illustrative analysis shows that if current biodiversity hotspots were protected from land-use change, over half the land allocated for forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in the assessed scenarios would be unavailable unless synergies between climate and conservation goals are leveraged. Our analysis also indicates CDR-related biodiversity benefits due to avoided warming. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) plays an important role in decarbonization pathways to meet climate goals, but some methods are land-intensive. Multimodel analysis reveals conflicts between biodiversity and CDR that are distributed unevenly, and shows that synergies are crucial to meet climate and conservation goals.
{"title":"Biodiversity implications of land-intensive carbon dioxide removal","authors":"Ruben Prütz, Joeri Rogelj, Gaurav Ganti, Jeff Price, Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Yazhen Wu, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Michael Wögerer, Tamás Krisztin, Petr Havlík, Florian Kraxner, Stefan Frank, Tomoko Hasegawa, Jonathan C. Doelman, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, Sabine Fuss","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5","url":null,"abstract":"Pathways consistent with global climate objectives typically deploy billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from land-intensive methods such as forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Such large-scale deployment of land-intensive CDR may have negative consequences for biodiversity. Here we assess scenarios across five integrated assessment models and show that scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C allocate up to 13% of global areas of high biodiversity importance for land-intensive CDR. These overlaps are distributed unevenly, with higher shares in low- and middle-income countries. Understanding the potential conflicts between climate action and biodiversity conservation is crucial. An illustrative analysis shows that if current biodiversity hotspots were protected from land-use change, over half the land allocated for forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in the assessed scenarios would be unavailable unless synergies between climate and conservation goals are leveraged. Our analysis also indicates CDR-related biodiversity benefits due to avoided warming. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) plays an important role in decarbonization pathways to meet climate goals, but some methods are land-intensive. Multimodel analysis reveals conflicts between biodiversity and CDR that are distributed unevenly, and shows that synergies are crucial to meet climate and conservation goals.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"155-163"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02557-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146089498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-26DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02547-z
Muhammad Usman, Maria Klepikova, Khalil Hanna
Climate change is tightening its grip on the world’s drinking water, threatening both safety and supply. Without urgent and coordinated adaptation of treatment systems, this overlooked vulnerability could compromise global water security.
{"title":"Climate change demands coordinated adaptation strategies of drinking water treatment","authors":"Muhammad Usman, Maria Klepikova, Khalil Hanna","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02547-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02547-z","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is tightening its grip on the world’s drinking water, threatening both safety and supply. Without urgent and coordinated adaptation of treatment systems, this overlooked vulnerability could compromise global water security.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"236-239"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146048431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02538-0
Kai Yang, Amelie Meyer, Phuc T. D. Le, Peter G. Strutton, Andrew M. Fischer
Ocean fronts are critical features that influence marine ecosystems and can affect climate at both regional and global scales. In many regions, fronts enhance vertical mixing and advection, increasing nutrient supply, which can stimulate primary production and modulate air–sea CO2 fluxes. However, a global perspective on the impacts of changing ocean fronts on primary production and air–sea CO2 exchange is still lacking. Here using satellite observations (2003–2024) and supplementary reanalysis data at higher latitudes (2003–2024), we identify areas with the richest frontal activity and the fastest-changing frontal properties. We find that 72% of global ocean CO2 uptake occurs in key frontal areas. Trends in sea surface chlorophyll concentration and ocean CO2 uptake closely track changes in local frontal activity. Our results indicate that ocean fronts play a central role in regulating the global carbon cycle by influencing the biological component of air–sea CO2 fluxes. Changes in ocean fronts could impact biological productivity and carbon exchange. By analysing satellite and reanalysis data, the authors identify areas with active frontal activity and rapid change in properties, as well as highlighting the correspondence with surface productivity and CO2 uptake.
{"title":"Global trends in ocean fronts and impacts on the air–sea CO2 flux and chlorophyll concentrations","authors":"Kai Yang, Amelie Meyer, Phuc T. D. Le, Peter G. Strutton, Andrew M. Fischer","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02538-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02538-0","url":null,"abstract":"Ocean fronts are critical features that influence marine ecosystems and can affect climate at both regional and global scales. In many regions, fronts enhance vertical mixing and advection, increasing nutrient supply, which can stimulate primary production and modulate air–sea CO2 fluxes. However, a global perspective on the impacts of changing ocean fronts on primary production and air–sea CO2 exchange is still lacking. Here using satellite observations (2003–2024) and supplementary reanalysis data at higher latitudes (2003–2024), we identify areas with the richest frontal activity and the fastest-changing frontal properties. We find that 72% of global ocean CO2 uptake occurs in key frontal areas. Trends in sea surface chlorophyll concentration and ocean CO2 uptake closely track changes in local frontal activity. Our results indicate that ocean fronts play a central role in regulating the global carbon cycle by influencing the biological component of air–sea CO2 fluxes. Changes in ocean fronts could impact biological productivity and carbon exchange. By analysing satellite and reanalysis data, the authors identify areas with active frontal activity and rapid change in properties, as well as highlighting the correspondence with surface productivity and CO2 uptake.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"322-330"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146033383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02545-1
Cristina Cattaneo, Soheil Shayegh, Christoph Albert, Maria Alsina-Pujols, Hélène Benveniste, Marion Borderon, Bruno Conte, Christoph Deuster, Joseph-Simon Görlach, Toon Haer, Roman Hoffmann, Raya Muttarak, Michele Ronco, Jacob Schewe, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
Current climate migration literature focuses on establishing links between climate drivers and migration. However, it often overlooks the broader role that migration plays within the context of climate impacts, adaptation and the connection with mitigation. This Perspective highlights four key research gaps: (1) the effectiveness of migration as an adaptation strategy, (2) how migration interacts with in situ adaptation efforts, (3) migration’s impacts on origin and destination communities and (4) feedback between climate mitigation policies and migration. To address these gaps, we propose solutions grounded in strengthening conceptual frameworks, expanded and harmonized data, and advancing methodological innovation. Together, these efforts can inform policy-making to better protect vulnerable populations, allocate resources more effectively and strengthen resilience and justice. Current climate migration literature focuses on quantifying the link between climate drivers and migration, yet overlooks its broader and more complex interactions with mitigation, adaptation and climate impacts. This Perspective highlights key gaps and offers concrete solutions.
{"title":"Broadening climate migration research across impacts, adaptation and mitigation","authors":"Cristina Cattaneo, Soheil Shayegh, Christoph Albert, Maria Alsina-Pujols, Hélène Benveniste, Marion Borderon, Bruno Conte, Christoph Deuster, Joseph-Simon Görlach, Toon Haer, Roman Hoffmann, Raya Muttarak, Michele Ronco, Jacob Schewe, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02545-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02545-1","url":null,"abstract":"Current climate migration literature focuses on establishing links between climate drivers and migration. However, it often overlooks the broader role that migration plays within the context of climate impacts, adaptation and the connection with mitigation. This Perspective highlights four key research gaps: (1) the effectiveness of migration as an adaptation strategy, (2) how migration interacts with in situ adaptation efforts, (3) migration’s impacts on origin and destination communities and (4) feedback between climate mitigation policies and migration. To address these gaps, we propose solutions grounded in strengthening conceptual frameworks, expanded and harmonized data, and advancing methodological innovation. Together, these efforts can inform policy-making to better protect vulnerable populations, allocate resources more effectively and strengthen resilience and justice. Current climate migration literature focuses on quantifying the link between climate drivers and migration, yet overlooks its broader and more complex interactions with mitigation, adaptation and climate impacts. This Perspective highlights key gaps and offers concrete solutions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"255-260"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146033384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-16DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02541-5
Florentine Koppenborg
Economists have spent a decade designing the perfect climate club, yet political reality has hitherto rendered these designs practically infeasible. The Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets offers a path forward, but only if its architects recognize that understanding political feasibility is crucial to turning a declaration into a functioning carbon pricing club that could close the emissions gap.
经济学家花了10年时间设计完美的气候俱乐部，但迄今为止，政治现实使这些设计实际上不可行。合规碳市场开放联盟（Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets）提供了一条前进的道路，但前提是该联盟的设计者认识到，理解政治可行性对于将一份宣言变成一个能够缩小排放差距的碳定价俱乐部至关重要。
{"title":"A coalition on compliance carbon markets to make climate clubs politically feasible","authors":"Florentine Koppenborg","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02541-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02541-5","url":null,"abstract":"Economists have spent a decade designing the perfect climate club, yet political reality has hitherto rendered these designs practically infeasible. The Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets offers a path forward, but only if its architects recognize that understanding political feasibility is crucial to turning a declaration into a functioning carbon pricing club that could close the emissions gap.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"232-233"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147383201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-15DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02539-z
Betsy Black, Xanthe J. Walker, Logan T. Berner, Jacqueline Dean, Scott J. Goetz, Winslow D. Hansen, Stefano Potter, Brendan M. Rogers, Anna C. Talucci, Michelle C. Mack
Climate change is driving more frequent and severe wildfires in northwestern North American boreal forests, initiating shifts from conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest dominance. The resulting forests sequester more carbon and are more resistant to burning. However, when deciduous forests do burn, patterns and drivers of carbon losses are important for predicting long-term carbon storage in boreal forest landscapes. Here we use a combination of field and statistical modelling approaches to quantify carbon combustion losses in burned deciduous boreal forests. On average, deciduous forests lose less than half as much carbon to wildfire combustion as conifer forests per unit burned area. Although deciduous stands are more sensitive to top–down fire weather drivers than conifer stands, carbon loss is always lower than the minimum for conifer stands. This, along with the fire-suppressive effects of deciduous stands, could slow the positive feedback between wildfire and climate in fire-prone boreal landscapes. More frequent fires in the North American boreal are causing shifts from conifer to deciduous forests. This study finds that when deciduous forests burn, their carbon losses are driven by weather, but are lower than in conifer forests, potentially dampening climate–fire feedbacks.
{"title":"Increased deciduous tree dominance reduces wildfire carbon losses in boreal forests","authors":"Betsy Black, Xanthe J. Walker, Logan T. Berner, Jacqueline Dean, Scott J. Goetz, Winslow D. Hansen, Stefano Potter, Brendan M. Rogers, Anna C. Talucci, Michelle C. Mack","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02539-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02539-z","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is driving more frequent and severe wildfires in northwestern North American boreal forests, initiating shifts from conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest dominance. The resulting forests sequester more carbon and are more resistant to burning. However, when deciduous forests do burn, patterns and drivers of carbon losses are important for predicting long-term carbon storage in boreal forest landscapes. Here we use a combination of field and statistical modelling approaches to quantify carbon combustion losses in burned deciduous boreal forests. On average, deciduous forests lose less than half as much carbon to wildfire combustion as conifer forests per unit burned area. Although deciduous stands are more sensitive to top–down fire weather drivers than conifer stands, carbon loss is always lower than the minimum for conifer stands. This, along with the fire-suppressive effects of deciduous stands, could slow the positive feedback between wildfire and climate in fire-prone boreal landscapes. More frequent fires in the North American boreal are causing shifts from conifer to deciduous forests. This study finds that when deciduous forests burn, their carbon losses are driven by weather, but are lower than in conifer forests, potentially dampening climate–fire feedbacks.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"187-192"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-15DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5
Bernardo A. Bastien-Olvera, Octavio Aburto-Oropeza, Luke M. Brander, William W. L. Cheung, Johannes Emmerling, Christopher M. Free, Francesco Granella, Massimo Tavoni, Jasper Verschuur, Katharine Ricke
Oceans provide essential benefits to people and the economy, underpinned by the extent and condition of marine ecosystems and infrastructure—or ‘blue’ capital. However, the impacts of climate change on blue capital have been largely overlooked in influential indicators such as the social cost of carbon (SCC). Here we integrate the latest ocean science and economics into a climate-economy model, capturing climate change impacts on corals, mangroves, seaports, fisheries and mariculture to estimate their welfare repercussions at a global scale. Conceptually, this ocean-based SCC (blue SCC) represents a component of the total SCC currently omitted in standard estimates. We estimate the 2020 blue SCC to be US$48 per tCO2 (US$38–70, 25th–75th percentile) with baseline discounting, representing an almost doubling of the SCC estimate from the same model without considering ocean-related impacts. The blue SCC increases to US$168 for a discount rate of 2%. Oceans provide essential ecosystem services to human society, yet the climate impacts on blue capital have long been ignored. Incorporating the latest works on ocean science and economics, researchers show that accounting for the potential damage would almost double the social cost of carbon estimation.
{"title":"Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon","authors":"Bernardo A. Bastien-Olvera, Octavio Aburto-Oropeza, Luke M. Brander, William W. L. Cheung, Johannes Emmerling, Christopher M. Free, Francesco Granella, Massimo Tavoni, Jasper Verschuur, Katharine Ricke","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5","url":null,"abstract":"Oceans provide essential benefits to people and the economy, underpinned by the extent and condition of marine ecosystems and infrastructure—or ‘blue’ capital. However, the impacts of climate change on blue capital have been largely overlooked in influential indicators such as the social cost of carbon (SCC). Here we integrate the latest ocean science and economics into a climate-economy model, capturing climate change impacts on corals, mangroves, seaports, fisheries and mariculture to estimate their welfare repercussions at a global scale. Conceptually, this ocean-based SCC (blue SCC) represents a component of the total SCC currently omitted in standard estimates. We estimate the 2020 blue SCC to be US$48 per tCO2 (US$38–70, 25th–75th percentile) with baseline discounting, representing an almost doubling of the SCC estimate from the same model without considering ocean-related impacts. The blue SCC increases to US$168 for a discount rate of 2%. Oceans provide essential ecosystem services to human society, yet the climate impacts on blue capital have long been ignored. Incorporating the latest works on ocean science and economics, researchers show that accounting for the potential damage would almost double the social cost of carbon estimation.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"297-304"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-14DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02510-y
Khin Nawarat, Johan Reyns, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Eamonn Mulholland, Kees van Ginkel, Luc Feyen, Roshanka Ranasinghe
European coastal regions host a dense transport network that supports various human activities and well-being. However, global warming is expected to increase coastal flooding risk, whose impact on existing and planned European transport systems remains unknown. Here we present the fully probabilistic assessment of coastal flood risk to Europe’s surface transport infrastructure at different levels of global warming. Under baseline conditions (1980–2020), we find 1,592 km of networks are affected annually, causing expected annual damage of up to €722 million. Roads are projected to be more affected than railways in all countries. Passenger and haulage transport within the low-elevation coastal zone are currently overwhelmingly road dependent, which signals potential for widespread disruptions unless transportation modes change. With 1.5 °C warming, the Europe-wide expected annual damage may reach €1,108 million, and with 4 °C, it is projected to be as high as €1,487 million. Adaptation expenditures will increase with every fraction of global warming in most countries. Transport networks in coastal zones are critical for human activities and are faced with increasing flooding risk. Using a detailed risk analysis in Europe, the authors show that the affected networks and expected annual damage will increase considerably with global warming.
{"title":"Coastal flood risk to European surface transport infrastructure at different global warming levels","authors":"Khin Nawarat, Johan Reyns, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Eamonn Mulholland, Kees van Ginkel, Luc Feyen, Roshanka Ranasinghe","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02510-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02510-y","url":null,"abstract":"European coastal regions host a dense transport network that supports various human activities and well-being. However, global warming is expected to increase coastal flooding risk, whose impact on existing and planned European transport systems remains unknown. Here we present the fully probabilistic assessment of coastal flood risk to Europe’s surface transport infrastructure at different levels of global warming. Under baseline conditions (1980–2020), we find 1,592 km of networks are affected annually, causing expected annual damage of up to €722 million. Roads are projected to be more affected than railways in all countries. Passenger and haulage transport within the low-elevation coastal zone are currently overwhelmingly road dependent, which signals potential for widespread disruptions unless transportation modes change. With 1.5 °C warming, the Europe-wide expected annual damage may reach €1,108 million, and with 4 °C, it is projected to be as high as €1,487 million. Adaptation expenditures will increase with every fraction of global warming in most countries. Transport networks in coastal zones are critical for human activities and are faced with increasing flooding risk. Using a detailed risk analysis in Europe, the authors show that the affected networks and expected annual damage will increase considerably with global warming.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"172-178"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02510-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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