Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02531-7
Danyang Cheng
{"title":"Inequalities in resilience and preparedness","authors":"Danyang Cheng","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02531-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02531-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"14-14"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145916081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02529-1
Shuai Yang
{"title":"Rising lake and reservoir emissions","authors":"Shuai Yang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02529-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02529-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"14-14"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145916082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02508-6
Jordan Fields
Whether erosion is accelerating or decelerating along Arctic rivers has been unclear, but each trend has distinct implications for the vast amount of carbon stored in permanently frozen soils. Now, research demonstrates that warming air temperatures are driving divergent outcomes for Arctic rivers, causing some to erode their banks more rapidly while others slow down.
{"title":"Rivers accelerate and slow as temperatures rise","authors":"Jordan Fields","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02508-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02508-6","url":null,"abstract":"Whether erosion is accelerating or decelerating along Arctic rivers has been unclear, but each trend has distinct implications for the vast amount of carbon stored in permanently frozen soils. Now, research demonstrates that warming air temperatures are driving divergent outcomes for Arctic rivers, causing some to erode their banks more rapidly while others slow down.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"17-18"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145916080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02516-6
Hai-Anh H. Dang, Stephane Hallegatte, Minh Cong Nguyen, Trong-Anh Trinh
Higher temperatures are expected to impact globally on poverty and inequality, yet little cross-country analysis exists to quantify the effects. Here we analyse a panel dataset of subnational poverty in 130 countries covering the past decade and find that a 1 °C increase in temperature causes headcount poverty increases of 0.63–1.18 percentage points, using the daily poverty lines of US$2.15 (corresponding to 8.3% and 15.6% increases), and increases in the Gini inequality index of 1.3–1.9%. These poverty estimates equal a projected increase of global poor by 62.3–98.7 million people by 2030 compared with a scenario without climate change. Poorer countries—particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa—are more vulnerable, as are countries with higher agriculture shares in the economy. Estimates at the subnational level are larger than those using the country-level data, indicating that aggregated analysis may underestimate climate change risks. In addition to affecting general economic indicators, climate change could worsen poverty and inequality across and within countries. With a global subnational dataset, researchers confirm that temperature rise leads to increases in headcount poverty and the Gini index, with poorer countries being particularly vulnerable.
{"title":"Impacts of global warming on subnational poverty and inequality","authors":"Hai-Anh H. Dang, Stephane Hallegatte, Minh Cong Nguyen, Trong-Anh Trinh","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02516-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02516-6","url":null,"abstract":"Higher temperatures are expected to impact globally on poverty and inequality, yet little cross-country analysis exists to quantify the effects. Here we analyse a panel dataset of subnational poverty in 130 countries covering the past decade and find that a 1 °C increase in temperature causes headcount poverty increases of 0.63–1.18 percentage points, using the daily poverty lines of US$2.15 (corresponding to 8.3% and 15.6% increases), and increases in the Gini inequality index of 1.3–1.9%. These poverty estimates equal a projected increase of global poor by 62.3–98.7 million people by 2030 compared with a scenario without climate change. Poorer countries—particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa—are more vulnerable, as are countries with higher agriculture shares in the economy. Estimates at the subnational level are larger than those using the country-level data, indicating that aggregated analysis may underestimate climate change risks. In addition to affecting general economic indicators, climate change could worsen poverty and inequality across and within countries. With a global subnational dataset, researchers confirm that temperature rise leads to increases in headcount poverty and the Gini index, with poorer countries being particularly vulnerable.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"207-213"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02516-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145801594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02497-6
Huilin Luo, Wei Peng, Allen Fawcett, Jessica F. Green, Gokul Iyer, Jonas Meckling, Jonas Nahm, David G. Victor
Many political jurisdictions have embraced climate policy strategies that emphasize large subsidies to deploy green technologies (‘carrots’) with the anticipation that more punitive policies (‘sticks’) may follow. However, little is known about how such policy sequencing affects future policies, emission reductions and costs. Using a multisector model for the USA, we examine carrot-first policies which mimic the increasingly popular interest in industrial policy and offer a way to model these real-world policy choices in energy-system models. We find that a carrot-first policy strategy still requires later use of similar-sized sticks when compared with a policy strategy that begins with sticks and achieves the same levels of long-term decarbonization. Policy carrots alone do not dramatically reduce future emissions. Only with policy sticks are there unambiguous signals to substantially shrink the size of incumbent fossil fuel industries. Green subsidies (carrots) are now becoming a more politically acceptable climate policy option compared with corrective regulations (sticks). However, researcher show that carrots without quick and appropriate sticks will not be sufficient to reach the deep decarbonization goal in the long run.
{"title":"Modelling the impacts of policy sequencing on energy decarbonization","authors":"Huilin Luo, Wei Peng, Allen Fawcett, Jessica F. Green, Gokul Iyer, Jonas Meckling, Jonas Nahm, David G. Victor","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02497-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02497-6","url":null,"abstract":"Many political jurisdictions have embraced climate policy strategies that emphasize large subsidies to deploy green technologies (‘carrots’) with the anticipation that more punitive policies (‘sticks’) may follow. However, little is known about how such policy sequencing affects future policies, emission reductions and costs. Using a multisector model for the USA, we examine carrot-first policies which mimic the increasingly popular interest in industrial policy and offer a way to model these real-world policy choices in energy-system models. We find that a carrot-first policy strategy still requires later use of similar-sized sticks when compared with a policy strategy that begins with sticks and achieves the same levels of long-term decarbonization. Policy carrots alone do not dramatically reduce future emissions. Only with policy sticks are there unambiguous signals to substantially shrink the size of incumbent fossil fuel industries. Green subsidies (carrots) are now becoming a more politically acceptable climate policy option compared with corrective regulations (sticks). However, researcher show that carrots without quick and appropriate sticks will not be sufficient to reach the deep decarbonization goal in the long run.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"43-51"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145801596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02514-8
Mark Purdon
Both green industrial policy (‘carrots’) and carbon pricing (‘sticks’) are seen as important instruments for decarbonization, but the sequencing strategy matters. Researchers now demonstrate that carrots alone — without sticks — are unlikely to reach long-term net-zero targets in the USA.
{"title":"Green industrial policy is not enough for net-zero decarbonization","authors":"Mark Purdon","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02514-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02514-8","url":null,"abstract":"Both green industrial policy (‘carrots’) and carbon pricing (‘sticks’) are seen as important instruments for decarbonization, but the sequencing strategy matters. Researchers now demonstrate that carrots alone — without sticks — are unlikely to reach long-term net-zero targets in the USA.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"15-16"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145916075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-16DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02523-7
Alon Tal, Shlomit Paz
Climate denial in political discourse is fuelled by psychological factors such as psychological distance, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, loss aversion, existential anxiety and social identity. Effective communication strategies addressing deniers’ motivations are crucial as denial undermines urgent climate action.
{"title":"The political psychology of climate denial","authors":"Alon Tal, Shlomit Paz","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02523-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02523-7","url":null,"abstract":"Climate denial in political discourse is fuelled by psychological factors such as psychological distance, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, loss aversion, existential anxiety and social identity. Effective communication strategies addressing deniers’ motivations are crucial as denial undermines urgent climate action.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"2-4"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145770605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9
Lander Van Tricht, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Lilian Schuster, Rodrigo Aguayo, Patrick Schmitt, Fabien Maussion, Brandon Tober, Daniel Farinotti
Projections of glacier change typically focus on mass and area loss, yet the disappearance of individual glaciers directly threatens culturally, spiritually and touristically significant landscapes. Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 and 2055 with up to ~4,000 glaciers vanishing annually. Regional variability reflects differences in average glacier size, local climate, the magnitude of warming and inventory completeness. Many mountain glaciers will disappear with warming. Here the authors assess how many glaciers will disappear per year under different warming scenarios, finding that a peak in glacier loss will happen during the mid-twenty-first century.
{"title":"Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century","authors":"Lander Van Tricht, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Lilian Schuster, Rodrigo Aguayo, Patrick Schmitt, Fabien Maussion, Brandon Tober, Daniel Farinotti","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9","url":null,"abstract":"Projections of glacier change typically focus on mass and area loss, yet the disappearance of individual glaciers directly threatens culturally, spiritually and touristically significant landscapes. Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 and 2055 with up to ~4,000 glaciers vanishing annually. Regional variability reflects differences in average glacier size, local climate, the magnitude of warming and inventory completeness. Many mountain glaciers will disappear with warming. Here the authors assess how many glaciers will disappear per year under different warming scenarios, finding that a peak in glacier loss will happen during the mid-twenty-first century.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"143-147"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02513-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145759783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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