Pub Date : 2023-08-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w
Váleri N. Vásquez, Lara M. Kueppers, Gordana Rašić, John M. Marshall
Rising temperatures are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking Wolbachia bacterium. Because the most widely used strain, wMel, is adversely affected by heat stress, we examined how global warming may influence wMel-based replacement. We simulated interventions in two locations with successful field trials using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections and historical temperature records, integrating empirical data on wMel’s thermal sensitivity into a model of Aedes aegypti population dynamics to evaluate introgression and persistence over one year. We show that in Cairns, Australia, climatic futures necessitate operational adaptations for heatwaves exceeding two weeks. In Nha Trang, Vietnam, projected heatwaves of three weeks and longer eliminate wMel under the most stringent assumptions of that symbiont’s thermal limits. We conclude that this technology is generally robust to near-term (2030s) climate change. Accelerated warming may challenge this in the 2050s and beyond. The biocontrol technology (wMel) used to mitigate mosquito-borne viruses is adversely affected by heat stress. The authors integrate empirical data on mosquito population dynamics and wMel thermal sensitivity to show that the technology is generally robust to near-term climate change.
{"title":"wMel replacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change","authors":"Váleri N. Vásquez, Lara M. Kueppers, Gordana Rašić, John M. Marshall","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w","url":null,"abstract":"Rising temperatures are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking Wolbachia bacterium. Because the most widely used strain, wMel, is adversely affected by heat stress, we examined how global warming may influence wMel-based replacement. We simulated interventions in two locations with successful field trials using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections and historical temperature records, integrating empirical data on wMel’s thermal sensitivity into a model of Aedes aegypti population dynamics to evaluate introgression and persistence over one year. We show that in Cairns, Australia, climatic futures necessitate operational adaptations for heatwaves exceeding two weeks. In Nha Trang, Vietnam, projected heatwaves of three weeks and longer eliminate wMel under the most stringent assumptions of that symbiont’s thermal limits. We conclude that this technology is generally robust to near-term (2030s) climate change. Accelerated warming may challenge this in the 2050s and beyond. The biocontrol technology (wMel) used to mitigate mosquito-borne viruses is adversely affected by heat stress. The authors integrate empirical data on mosquito population dynamics and wMel thermal sensitivity to show that the technology is generally robust to near-term climate change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 8","pages":"848-855"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10403361/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10059928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01757-7
Yongxian Su, Chaoqun Zhang, Philippe Ciais, Zhenzhong Zeng, Alessandro Cescatti, Jiali Shang, Jing Ming Chen, Jane Liu, Ying-Ping Wang, Wenping Yuan, Shushi Peng, Xuhui Lee, Zaichun Zhu, Lei Fan, Xiaoping Liu, Liyang Liu, Raffaele Lafortezza, Yan Li, Jiashun Ren, Xueqin Yang, Xiuzhi Chen
The direct biophysical effects of fine-scale tree cover changes on temperature are not well understood. Here, we show how land surface temperature responds to subgrid gross tree cover changes. We find that in many forests, the biophysical cooling induced by enhanced evapotranspiration due to tree cover gain is greater in magnitude than the warming from tree cover loss. Therefore, the goal of no biophysical warming effects from tree cover changes could be achieved by regaining a fraction of previously lost tree cover areas. This percentage differs between different forest biomes, ranging from 75% in tropical to 83% in temperate forests. Neglecting this asymmetric temperature effect of fine-scale tree cover change ignores the fact that biophysical feedbacks continue to cause surface temperature changes even under net-zero tree cover changes. Thus, it is necessary to account for gross, rather than net, tree cover changes when quantifying the biophysical effects of forests. Changes in tree cover can change surface temperatures in multiple ways. Here, the authors show an asymmetric direct biophysical effect of tree cover change, as the cooling due to tree cover gain is greater in magnitude than the warming from tree cover loss in most forests.
{"title":"Asymmetric influence of forest cover gain and loss on land surface temperature","authors":"Yongxian Su, Chaoqun Zhang, Philippe Ciais, Zhenzhong Zeng, Alessandro Cescatti, Jiali Shang, Jing Ming Chen, Jane Liu, Ying-Ping Wang, Wenping Yuan, Shushi Peng, Xuhui Lee, Zaichun Zhu, Lei Fan, Xiaoping Liu, Liyang Liu, Raffaele Lafortezza, Yan Li, Jiashun Ren, Xueqin Yang, Xiuzhi Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01757-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01757-7","url":null,"abstract":"The direct biophysical effects of fine-scale tree cover changes on temperature are not well understood. Here, we show how land surface temperature responds to subgrid gross tree cover changes. We find that in many forests, the biophysical cooling induced by enhanced evapotranspiration due to tree cover gain is greater in magnitude than the warming from tree cover loss. Therefore, the goal of no biophysical warming effects from tree cover changes could be achieved by regaining a fraction of previously lost tree cover areas. This percentage differs between different forest biomes, ranging from 75% in tropical to 83% in temperate forests. Neglecting this asymmetric temperature effect of fine-scale tree cover change ignores the fact that biophysical feedbacks continue to cause surface temperature changes even under net-zero tree cover changes. Thus, it is necessary to account for gross, rather than net, tree cover changes when quantifying the biophysical effects of forests. Changes in tree cover can change surface temperatures in multiple ways. Here, the authors show an asymmetric direct biophysical effect of tree cover change, as the cooling due to tree cover gain is greater in magnitude than the warming from tree cover loss in most forests.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 8","pages":"823-831"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44058617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01735-z
Benoit Meyssignac, Michael Ablain, Adrien Guérou, Pierre Prandi, Anne Barnoud, Alejandro Blazquez, Sébastien Fourest, Victor Rousseau, Pascal Bonnefond, Anny Cazenave, Jonathan Chenal, Gerald Dibarboure, Craig Donlon, Jérôme Benveniste, Annick Sylvestre-Baron, Nadya Vinogradova
Sea-level measurements from radar satellite altimetry have reached a high level of accuracy and precision, which enables detection of global mean sea-level rise and attribution of most of the rate of rise to greenhouse gas emissions. This achievement is far beyond the original objectives of satellite altimetry missions. However, recent research shows that there is still room for improving the performance of satellite altimetry. Reduced uncertainties would enable regionalization of the detection and attribution of the anthropogenic signal in sea-level rise and provide new observational constraints on the water–energy cycle response to greenhouse gas emissions by improving the estimate of the ocean heat uptake and the Earth energy imbalance. Satellite radar altimetry enables the detection of sea-level changes by collecting data that have exceeded early expectations. This Perspective discusses potential advances that would enhance the data, allowing regional detection and attribution of sea-level change and improving ocean heat uptake estimates.
{"title":"How accurate is accurate enough for measuring sea-level rise and variability","authors":"Benoit Meyssignac, Michael Ablain, Adrien Guérou, Pierre Prandi, Anne Barnoud, Alejandro Blazquez, Sébastien Fourest, Victor Rousseau, Pascal Bonnefond, Anny Cazenave, Jonathan Chenal, Gerald Dibarboure, Craig Donlon, Jérôme Benveniste, Annick Sylvestre-Baron, Nadya Vinogradova","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01735-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01735-z","url":null,"abstract":"Sea-level measurements from radar satellite altimetry have reached a high level of accuracy and precision, which enables detection of global mean sea-level rise and attribution of most of the rate of rise to greenhouse gas emissions. This achievement is far beyond the original objectives of satellite altimetry missions. However, recent research shows that there is still room for improving the performance of satellite altimetry. Reduced uncertainties would enable regionalization of the detection and attribution of the anthropogenic signal in sea-level rise and provide new observational constraints on the water–energy cycle response to greenhouse gas emissions by improving the estimate of the ocean heat uptake and the Earth energy imbalance. Satellite radar altimetry enables the detection of sea-level changes by collecting data that have exceeded early expectations. This Perspective discusses potential advances that would enhance the data, allowing regional detection and attribution of sea-level change and improving ocean heat uptake estimates.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 8","pages":"796-803"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48802930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01752-y
Eric P. Caragata
Climate change might alter mosquito-borne disease risk, but research now suggests that one emerging mosquito control approach might be largely resistant to warming temperatures.
{"title":"Susceptibility of Wolbachia mosquito control to temperature shifts","authors":"Eric P. Caragata","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01752-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01752-y","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change might alter mosquito-borne disease risk, but research now suggests that one emerging mosquito control approach might be largely resistant to warming temperatures.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 8","pages":"767-768"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44831775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01758-6
A net-zero change in tree cover is often considered to have no impact on the biophysical effects of forests. Satellite observations now reveal an asymmetric influence of gross tree-cover gain versus loss on land surface temperature. Neglecting this influence might lead to biases in quantifying the biophysical effects of forests.
{"title":"Gains and losses in forest cover have asymmetric effects on land surface temperature","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01758-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01758-6","url":null,"abstract":"A net-zero change in tree cover is often considered to have no impact on the biophysical effects of forests. Satellite observations now reveal an asymmetric influence of gross tree-cover gain versus loss on land surface temperature. Neglecting this influence might lead to biases in quantifying the biophysical effects of forests.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 8","pages":"776-777"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42062838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-27DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01753-x
Erica R. Bower, Anvesh Badamikar, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, Christopher B. Field
The planned relocation of entire communities to less hazard-exposed destinations is an increasingly salient climate change adaptation strategy but often results in maladaptive livelihood outcomes. There needs to be understanding of how planning decisions affect outcomes—relocated people’s access to sustainable livelihoods, including physical, economic, natural, human, social and cultural assets. Here, drawing on data from 14 completed flood-related relocation cases, we use fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis and find that planning decisions, alone and taken together, contributed to sustainable livelihood outcomes. Relocation processes initiated and driven by community members had better outcomes than government-driven processes, adding a global comparative perspective to prior findings. Speed and transfer dynamics were also critical, with different implications for small and large communities. As a result, multiple pathways of planning decisions can lead to better outcomes, highlighting potential entry points for policy to promote more sustainable and people-centred planned relocation. Planned relocation can be an adaptation approach to avoid damages from increasing natural hazards yet concerns over maladaptive outcomes remain. Based on flood-related relocation cases, this study highlights the importance of community engagement in enabling sustainable livelihoods.
{"title":"Enabling pathways for sustainable livelihoods in planned relocation","authors":"Erica R. Bower, Anvesh Badamikar, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, Christopher B. Field","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01753-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01753-x","url":null,"abstract":"The planned relocation of entire communities to less hazard-exposed destinations is an increasingly salient climate change adaptation strategy but often results in maladaptive livelihood outcomes. There needs to be understanding of how planning decisions affect outcomes—relocated people’s access to sustainable livelihoods, including physical, economic, natural, human, social and cultural assets. Here, drawing on data from 14 completed flood-related relocation cases, we use fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis and find that planning decisions, alone and taken together, contributed to sustainable livelihood outcomes. Relocation processes initiated and driven by community members had better outcomes than government-driven processes, adding a global comparative perspective to prior findings. Speed and transfer dynamics were also critical, with different implications for small and large communities. As a result, multiple pathways of planning decisions can lead to better outcomes, highlighting potential entry points for policy to promote more sustainable and people-centred planned relocation. Planned relocation can be an adaptation approach to avoid damages from increasing natural hazards yet concerns over maladaptive outcomes remain. Based on flood-related relocation cases, this study highlights the importance of community engagement in enabling sustainable livelihoods.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 9","pages":"919-926"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01753-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45142234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-27DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01755-9
Taryn Fransen, Jonas Meckling, Anna Stünzi, Tobias S. Schmidt, Florian Egli, Nicolas Schmid, Christopher Beaton
A gap persists between the emissions reductions pledged by countries under the Paris Agreement and those resulting from their domestic policies. We argue that this gap in fact contains two parts: one in the policies that countries adopt, and the other in the outcomes that those policies achieve.
{"title":"Taking stock of the implementation gap in climate policy","authors":"Taryn Fransen, Jonas Meckling, Anna Stünzi, Tobias S. Schmidt, Florian Egli, Nicolas Schmid, Christopher Beaton","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01755-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01755-9","url":null,"abstract":"A gap persists between the emissions reductions pledged by countries under the Paris Agreement and those resulting from their domestic policies. We argue that this gap in fact contains two parts: one in the policies that countries adopt, and the other in the outcomes that those policies achieve.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 8","pages":"752-755"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43516867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01751-z
Quynh Nguyen
Natural disasters can trigger conflictive behaviour among affected individuals. Now, research based on survey experiments with Syrian and Iraqi refugees shows how people behave altruistically after experiencing drought, but only towards ingroup members.
{"title":"Drought experience and altruism","authors":"Quynh Nguyen","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01751-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01751-z","url":null,"abstract":"Natural disasters can trigger conflictive behaviour among affected individuals. Now, research based on survey experiments with Syrian and Iraqi refugees shows how people behave altruistically after experiencing drought, but only towards ingroup members.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 8","pages":"765-766"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46035531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01744-y
Pieter Sanczuk, Karen De Pauw, Emiel De Lombaerde, Miska Luoto, Camille Meeussen, Sanne Govaert, Thomas Vanneste, Leen Depauw, Jörg Brunet, Sara A. O. Cousins, Cristina Gasperini, Per-Ola Hedwall, Giovanni Iacopetti, Jonathan Lenoir, Jan Plue, Federico Selvi, Fabien Spicher, Jaime Uria-Diez, Kris Verheyen, Pieter Vangansbeke, Pieter De Frenne
Macroclimatic changes are impacting ecosystems worldwide. However, a large portion of terrestrial species live under conditions where impacts of macroclimate change are buffered, such as in the shade of trees, and how this buffering impacts future below-canopy biodiversity redistributions at the continental scale is unknown. Here we show that shady forest floors due to dense tree canopies mitigate severe warming impacts on forest biodiversity, while canopy opening amplifies macroclimate change impacts. A cross-continental transplant experiment in five contrasting biogeographical areas combined with experimental heating and irradiation treatments was used to parametize 25-m resolution mechanistic demographic distribution models and project the current and future distributions of 12 common understorey plant species, considering the effects of forest microclimate and forest cover density. These results highlight microclimates and forest density as powerful tools for forest managers and policymakers to shelter forest biodiversity from climate change. The impacts of microclimate on future plant population dynamics are poorly understood. The authors use large-scale transplant climate change experiments to show the contribution of forest microclimates to population dynamics and project the distributions of 12 common understorey plants.
{"title":"Microclimate and forest density drive plant population dynamics under climate change","authors":"Pieter Sanczuk, Karen De Pauw, Emiel De Lombaerde, Miska Luoto, Camille Meeussen, Sanne Govaert, Thomas Vanneste, Leen Depauw, Jörg Brunet, Sara A. O. Cousins, Cristina Gasperini, Per-Ola Hedwall, Giovanni Iacopetti, Jonathan Lenoir, Jan Plue, Federico Selvi, Fabien Spicher, Jaime Uria-Diez, Kris Verheyen, Pieter Vangansbeke, Pieter De Frenne","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01744-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01744-y","url":null,"abstract":"Macroclimatic changes are impacting ecosystems worldwide. However, a large portion of terrestrial species live under conditions where impacts of macroclimate change are buffered, such as in the shade of trees, and how this buffering impacts future below-canopy biodiversity redistributions at the continental scale is unknown. Here we show that shady forest floors due to dense tree canopies mitigate severe warming impacts on forest biodiversity, while canopy opening amplifies macroclimate change impacts. A cross-continental transplant experiment in five contrasting biogeographical areas combined with experimental heating and irradiation treatments was used to parametize 25-m resolution mechanistic demographic distribution models and project the current and future distributions of 12 common understorey plant species, considering the effects of forest microclimate and forest cover density. These results highlight microclimates and forest density as powerful tools for forest managers and policymakers to shelter forest biodiversity from climate change. The impacts of microclimate on future plant population dynamics are poorly understood. The authors use large-scale transplant climate change experiments to show the contribution of forest microclimates to population dynamics and project the distributions of 12 common understorey plants.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 8","pages":"840-847"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48969240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01732-2
Stefan Döring, Jonathan Hall
Previous research on climate change impact regularly considers conflict outcomes, thereby disregarding cooperative behaviour such as altruism. Drought has the potential to fuel inter-ethnic cleavages, thus contributing to conflicts. Yet this runs against resilience arguments suggesting people who experience environmental hardship are more cooperative. Here we examine altruism in survey experiments in a natural setting among refugees from Syria and Iraq. We match survey responses to observational data on drought and socioeconomic variables. Our findings speak to both arguments. First, we show that drought exposure is associated with decreased altruism for survey respondents generally. We further show how group identity moderates the relationship between drought and altruism. Our results suggest a decrease in altruism due to drought is much larger when the target of altruism is presented as a member of an antagonistic ethno-religious outgroup. Climate-induced extreme events could lead to drastic socioeconomic consequences, including altered cooperation behaviours. With survey experiments among Iraqi and Syrian refugees, this study finds drought experience could reduce altruism and group identity function as the key moderator.
{"title":"Drought exposure decreases altruism with salient group identities as key moderator","authors":"Stefan Döring, Jonathan Hall","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01732-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01732-2","url":null,"abstract":"Previous research on climate change impact regularly considers conflict outcomes, thereby disregarding cooperative behaviour such as altruism. Drought has the potential to fuel inter-ethnic cleavages, thus contributing to conflicts. Yet this runs against resilience arguments suggesting people who experience environmental hardship are more cooperative. Here we examine altruism in survey experiments in a natural setting among refugees from Syria and Iraq. We match survey responses to observational data on drought and socioeconomic variables. Our findings speak to both arguments. First, we show that drought exposure is associated with decreased altruism for survey respondents generally. We further show how group identity moderates the relationship between drought and altruism. Our results suggest a decrease in altruism due to drought is much larger when the target of altruism is presented as a member of an antagonistic ethno-religious outgroup. Climate-induced extreme events could lead to drastic socioeconomic consequences, including altered cooperation behaviours. With survey experiments among Iraqi and Syrian refugees, this study finds drought experience could reduce altruism and group identity function as the key moderator.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 8","pages":"856-861"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01732-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47169493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：