Pub Date : 2024-10-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02120-0
Birgit Wild
Changes in nutrient availability can alter carbon storage and carbon dioxide emissions from tundra soils. Now, work shows that these responses can shift dramatically over long timescales of nutrient addition, by restructuring the interplay between plants and soil microorganisms.
{"title":"Dynamic nutrient effects on soil carbon","authors":"Birgit Wild","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02120-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02120-0","url":null,"abstract":"Changes in nutrient availability can alter carbon storage and carbon dioxide emissions from tundra soils. Now, work shows that these responses can shift dramatically over long timescales of nutrient addition, by restructuring the interplay between plants and soil microorganisms.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1119-1120"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142368961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02153-5
By expanding on one of the longest-running ecosystem manipulation experiments in the world, we found that the substantial Arctic soil carbon losses observed in the first 20 years of experimentation were temporary. We present evidence suggesting that the Arctic soil carbon balance depends on complex plant–microbial interactions that can take decades to manifest.
{"title":"Plant–microbe interactions explain the surprising recovery of Arctic soil carbon stocks","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02153-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02153-5","url":null,"abstract":"By expanding on one of the longest-running ecosystem manipulation experiments in the world, we found that the substantial Arctic soil carbon losses observed in the first 20 years of experimentation were temporary. We present evidence suggesting that the Arctic soil carbon balance depends on complex plant–microbial interactions that can take decades to manifest.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1121-1122"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142368962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-01DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02150-8
Martina Angela Caretta, Shobha Maharaj
The IPCC holds the gold standard for climate change scientific knowledge and authority at the science–policy interface. Here we reflect on our experience of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and discuss how diversity in authorship and inclusion of different disciplinary backgrounds can be improved.
{"title":"Diversity in IPCC author’s composition does not equate to inclusion","authors":"Martina Angela Caretta, Shobha Maharaj","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02150-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02150-8","url":null,"abstract":"The IPCC holds the gold standard for climate change scientific knowledge and authority at the science–policy interface. Here we reflect on our experience of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and discuss how diversity in authorship and inclusion of different disciplinary backgrounds can be improved.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 10","pages":"1013-1014"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142330390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-26DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02112-0
A feasibility analysis reveals that carbon capture and storage capacity might be able to expand fast enough to meet the requirements of 2 °C climate pathways but will unlikely meet those for 1.5 °C. Moreover, carbon capture and storage is unlikely to capture and store more than 600 Gt of CO2 over the twenty-first century, which has implications for the global carbon budget.
可行性分析表明，碳捕集与封存能力可能会迅速扩大到足以满足 2 °C 气候路径的要求，但不太可能满足 1.5 °C 气候路径的要求。此外，碳捕集与封存不太可能在 21 世纪捕集和封存超过 6 亿吨的二氧化碳，这对全球碳预算产生了影响。
{"title":"Major step up in carbon capture and storage needed to keep warming below 2 °C","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02112-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02112-0","url":null,"abstract":"A feasibility analysis reveals that carbon capture and storage capacity might be able to expand fast enough to meet the requirements of 2 °C climate pathways but will unlikely meet those for 1.5 °C. Moreover, carbon capture and storage is unlikely to capture and store more than 600 Gt of CO2 over the twenty-first century, which has implications for the global carbon budget.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 10","pages":"1022-1023"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142321197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02148-2
Lei Zhu, Pengfei Liu
More understanding of demand-side mitigation is needed for overall emissions reductions. Now, a study evaluates mitigation potential based on a cost–benefit approach, but gaps remain to fully leverage demand-side mitigation to achieve effective climate policies.
{"title":"How demand-side mitigation can help shape effective climate policies","authors":"Lei Zhu, Pengfei Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02148-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02148-2","url":null,"abstract":"More understanding of demand-side mitigation is needed for overall emissions reductions. Now, a study evaluates mitigation potential based on a cost–benefit approach, but gaps remain to fully leverage demand-side mitigation to achieve effective climate policies.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1117-1118"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142317028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02136-6
Johannes J. Viljoen, Xuerong Sun, Robert J. W. Brewin
Marine phytoplankton are essential to ocean biogeochemical cycles. However, our understanding of changes in phytoplankton rely largely on satellite data, which can only assess changes in surface phytoplankton. How climate variability is impacting their vertical structure remains unclear. Here we use 33 years’ worth of data from the Sargasso Sea to show distinct seasonal and long-term phytoplankton climate responses in the surface mixed layer compared with the subsurface. Seasonally, the surface community alters their carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio without changing their carbon biomass, whereas the chlorophyll a and carbon of the subsurface community covaries with no change in their carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio. Over the last decade, the subsurface phytoplankton biomass has increased in response to warming, whereas the surface phytoplankton have altered their carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio with minimal change in their carbon biomass. Given that satellites can only view the surface ocean, sustained subsurface monitoring is required to provide a full understanding of how phytoplankton are responding to climate change. The authors reveal distinct trends in surface and subsurface phytoplankton dynamics, highlighting the need for subsurface monitoring. Whereas subsurface phytoplankton respond to recent warming with biomass increases, surface phytoplankton show altered carbon-to-chlorophyll ratios but minimal biomass change.
海洋浮游植物对海洋生物地球化学循环至关重要。然而，我们对浮游植物变化的了解主要依靠卫星数据，这些数据只能评估表层浮游植物的变化。气候变异如何影响浮游植物的垂直结构仍不清楚。在这里，我们利用马尾藻海 33 年的数据，展示了表层混合层与次表层浮游植物不同的季节性和长期性气候响应。从季节上看，表层群落会改变其碳-叶绿素比值，但不会改变其碳生物量；而次表层群落的叶绿素 a 和碳则会随季节变化而变化，但其碳-叶绿素比值不会改变。在过去十年中，次表层浮游植物的生物量随着气候变暖而增加，而表层浮游植物的碳-叶绿素比值发生了变化，其碳生物量的变化却很小。鉴于卫星只能观测海洋表层，因此需要对海洋表层下进行持续监测，以全面了解浮游植物是如何应对气候变化的。
{"title":"Climate variability shifts the vertical structure of phytoplankton in the Sargasso Sea","authors":"Johannes J. Viljoen, Xuerong Sun, Robert J. W. Brewin","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02136-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02136-6","url":null,"abstract":"Marine phytoplankton are essential to ocean biogeochemical cycles. However, our understanding of changes in phytoplankton rely largely on satellite data, which can only assess changes in surface phytoplankton. How climate variability is impacting their vertical structure remains unclear. Here we use 33 years’ worth of data from the Sargasso Sea to show distinct seasonal and long-term phytoplankton climate responses in the surface mixed layer compared with the subsurface. Seasonally, the surface community alters their carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio without changing their carbon biomass, whereas the chlorophyll a and carbon of the subsurface community covaries with no change in their carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio. Over the last decade, the subsurface phytoplankton biomass has increased in response to warming, whereas the surface phytoplankton have altered their carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio with minimal change in their carbon biomass. Given that satellites can only view the surface ocean, sustained subsurface monitoring is required to provide a full understanding of how phytoplankton are responding to climate change. The authors reveal distinct trends in surface and subsurface phytoplankton dynamics, highlighting the need for subsurface monitoring. Whereas subsurface phytoplankton respond to recent warming with biomass increases, surface phytoplankton show altered carbon-to-chlorophyll ratios but minimal biomass change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1292-1298"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02136-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142317038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0
Tsimafei Kazlou, Aleh Cherp, Jessica Jewell
Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.37 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2030—lower than most 1.5 °C pathways but higher than most 2 °C pathways. Staying on-track to 2 °C would require that in 2030–2040 CCS accelerates at least as fast as wind power did in the 2000s, and that after 2040, it grows faster than nuclear power did in the 1970s to 1980s. Only 10% of mitigation pathways meet these feasibility constraints, and virtually all of them depict <600 GtCO2 captured and stored by 2100. Relaxing the constraints by assuming no failures of CCS plans and growth as fast as flue-gas desulfurization would approximately double this amount. Carbon capture and storage is a key component of mitigation scenarios, yet its feasibility is debated. An analysis based on historical trends in policy-driven technologies, current plans and their failure rates shows that a number of 2 °C pathways are feasible, but most 1.5 °C pathways are not.
{"title":"Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets","authors":"Tsimafei Kazlou, Aleh Cherp, Jessica Jewell","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.37 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2030—lower than most 1.5 °C pathways but higher than most 2 °C pathways. Staying on-track to 2 °C would require that in 2030–2040 CCS accelerates at least as fast as wind power did in the 2000s, and that after 2040, it grows faster than nuclear power did in the 1970s to 1980s. Only 10% of mitigation pathways meet these feasibility constraints, and virtually all of them depict <600 GtCO2 captured and stored by 2100. Relaxing the constraints by assuming no failures of CCS plans and growth as fast as flue-gas desulfurization would approximately double this amount. Carbon capture and storage is a key component of mitigation scenarios, yet its feasibility is debated. An analysis based on historical trends in policy-driven technologies, current plans and their failure rates shows that a number of 2 °C pathways are feasible, but most 1.5 °C pathways are not.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 10","pages":"1047-1055"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02104-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142317026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02146-4
Jie-Sheng Tan-Soo, Ping Qin, Yifei Quan, Jun Li, Xiaoxi Wang
Demand-side mitigation relies on individuals’ and households’ willingness to alter their consumption habits and daily routines to reduce their carbon footprint. Despite optimistic forecasts for well-being improvements, broad adoption of these behavioural changes remains elusive. Our study analyses 12 behaviours in Beijing, China, using a cost–benefit approach that includes both tangible (pecuniary) and intangible (non-pecuniary) benefits. Our findings indicate that eight behaviours result in individual-level welfare loss. Even after accounting for mitigation benefits, seven behaviours still incur social-welfare loss. Monte Carlo simulations unveil substantial variability in welfare impacts, highlighting opportunities for targeted policy interventions. Depending on the perspective (individual versus societal) and the goal (welfare versus mitigation), we recommend four demand-side practices for Beijing policymakers. In addition, we propose actionable steps on the basis of sensitivity analyses. This study underscores the need for an objective and universally applicable framework to evaluate demand-side behaviours and optimize emissions reduction potential. Demand-side mitigation solutions are seen as an essential part for climate actions, yet their adoption is still lower than expected. Cost–benefit analysis shows that the main barriers lie in the non-pecuniary costs of behaviour switching, and highlights opportunities for targeted policy intervention.
{"title":"Using cost–benefit analyses to identify key opportunities in demand-side mitigation","authors":"Jie-Sheng Tan-Soo, Ping Qin, Yifei Quan, Jun Li, Xiaoxi Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02146-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02146-4","url":null,"abstract":"Demand-side mitigation relies on individuals’ and households’ willingness to alter their consumption habits and daily routines to reduce their carbon footprint. Despite optimistic forecasts for well-being improvements, broad adoption of these behavioural changes remains elusive. Our study analyses 12 behaviours in Beijing, China, using a cost–benefit approach that includes both tangible (pecuniary) and intangible (non-pecuniary) benefits. Our findings indicate that eight behaviours result in individual-level welfare loss. Even after accounting for mitigation benefits, seven behaviours still incur social-welfare loss. Monte Carlo simulations unveil substantial variability in welfare impacts, highlighting opportunities for targeted policy interventions. Depending on the perspective (individual versus societal) and the goal (welfare versus mitigation), we recommend four demand-side practices for Beijing policymakers. In addition, we propose actionable steps on the basis of sensitivity analyses. This study underscores the need for an objective and universally applicable framework to evaluate demand-side behaviours and optimize emissions reduction potential. Demand-side mitigation solutions are seen as an essential part for climate actions, yet their adoption is still lower than expected. Cost–benefit analysis shows that the main barriers lie in the non-pecuniary costs of behaviour switching, and highlights opportunities for targeted policy intervention.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1158-1164"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142317023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-23DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02119-7
Tropical aboveground carbon is a crucial yet complex component of the terrestrial carbon budget. Here, remote observations reveal annual losses (from fire emissions and forest disturbances) and post-loss recovery of tropical aboveground carbon for 2010–2020, which overall resulted in tropical lands being a moderate carbon sink.
{"title":"Satellite observations reveal the complex annual dynamics of tropical aboveground carbon","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02119-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02119-7","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical aboveground carbon is a crucial yet complex component of the terrestrial carbon budget. Here, remote observations reveal annual losses (from fire emissions and forest disturbances) and post-loss recovery of tropical aboveground carbon for 2010–2020, which overall resulted in tropical lands being a moderate carbon sink.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 10","pages":"1024-1025"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142276884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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