Pub Date : 2024-10-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02156-2
Jenna F. Tipaldo, Deborah Balk, Lori M. Hunter
The twenty-first century will witness historically unprecedented shares of older adult populations with an unfolding set of health-related challenges associated with climate change. Building on existing evidence that focuses on climate–ageing, ageing–health and health–climate connections, this Review summarizes ageing trends and the biophysical, socio-demographic, cultural and contextual pathways that shape the disproportionate impacts of climate-related environmental stress on older adults’ health. We propose a framework to conceptualize how these many factors intersect with climate stressors to impact the health of older adults. We also discuss knowledge gaps and suggest ways to improve social and health science research and data infrastructure. Older adults are more likely to have health conditions that increase their vulnerability to climate stressors. This Review introduces a framework to conceptualize how biophysical, socio-demographic, cultural and contextual factors intersect with climate stressors to impact the health of older adults.
{"title":"A framework for ageing and health vulnerabilities in a changing climate","authors":"Jenna F. Tipaldo, Deborah Balk, Lori M. Hunter","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02156-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02156-2","url":null,"abstract":"The twenty-first century will witness historically unprecedented shares of older adult populations with an unfolding set of health-related challenges associated with climate change. Building on existing evidence that focuses on climate–ageing, ageing–health and health–climate connections, this Review summarizes ageing trends and the biophysical, socio-demographic, cultural and contextual pathways that shape the disproportionate impacts of climate-related environmental stress on older adults’ health. We propose a framework to conceptualize how these many factors intersect with climate stressors to impact the health of older adults. We also discuss knowledge gaps and suggest ways to improve social and health science research and data infrastructure. Older adults are more likely to have health conditions that increase their vulnerability to climate stressors. This Review introduces a framework to conceptualize how biophysical, socio-demographic, cultural and contextual factors intersect with climate stressors to impact the health of older adults.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1125-1135"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142489219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02195-9
Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa
{"title":"Author Correction: Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change","authors":"Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02195-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02195-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1323-1323"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02195-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142490090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-23DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02172-2
Yin Long, Yoshikuni Yoshida, Yuya Kajikawa
Record-breaking temperatures pose critical risks to the global food supply, particularly endangering fresh produce. Urgent enhancements in food safety measures, including re-evaluating the impact of food production, improving cold chain logistics and adapting dietary practices, are required to ensure the resilience of food systems and public health.
{"title":"Extreme heat disproportionately exacerbates health issues by threatening fresh food supply","authors":"Yin Long, Yoshikuni Yoshida, Yuya Kajikawa","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02172-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02172-2","url":null,"abstract":"Record-breaking temperatures pose critical risks to the global food supply, particularly endangering fresh produce. Urgent enhancements in food safety measures, including re-evaluating the impact of food production, improving cold chain logistics and adapting dietary practices, are required to ensure the resilience of food systems and public health.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1109-1111"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142487083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1
Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa
Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here we used three well-tested fire–vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions to climate change. Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual fire PM2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) to 12,566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, such as South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas. The authors combine fire–vegetation models, a chemical transport model and a health risk model to link human mortality from fire emissions to climate change. They estimate that 12.8% of mortalities in 2010 were linked to climate change, with South America, Australia, Europe and boreal forests most impacted.
{"title":"Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change","authors":"Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here we used three well-tested fire–vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions to climate change. Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual fire PM2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) to 12,566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, such as South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas. The authors combine fire–vegetation models, a chemical transport model and a health risk model to link human mortality from fire emissions to climate change. They estimate that 12.8% of mortalities in 2010 were linked to climate change, with South America, Australia, Europe and boreal forests most impacted.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1193-1200"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142452000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w
Chantelle Burton, Seppe Lampe, Douglas I. Kelley, Wim Thiery, Stijn Hantson, Nikos Christidis, Lukas Gudmundsson, Matthew Forrest, Eleanor Burke, Jinfeng Chang, Huilin Huang, Akihiko Ito, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Gitta Lasslop, Wei Li, Lars Nieradzik, Fang Li, Yang Chen, James Randerson, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel
Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems. Complex interactions between drivers have hampered efforts to understand observed changes in fire behaviour worldwide. Here fire model ensembles and impact attribution show that climate change increasingly explains changes in global burned area.
全球许多地区的火灾行为正在发生变化。然而，火灾天气、燃料、土地利用、管理和点火之间的非线性相互作用阻碍了全球烧毁面积变化的正式归因。在这里，我们利用一组全球火灾模型证明，气候变化越来越多地解释了区域燃烧面积模式。模拟结果表明，2003-2019 年，气候变化使全球烧毁面积增加了 15.8%（95% 置信区间 [13.1-18.7]），并使全球烧毁面积超过平均水平的月份的概率增加了 22%（95% 置信区间 [18-26]）。相比之下，其他人类影响因素则使同期的焚烧面积减少了 19.1%（95% CI [21.9-15.8]）。此外，气候变化对全球烧毁面积的影响每年增加 0.22% (95% CI [0.22-0.24])，其中澳大利亚中部的增幅最大。我们的研究结果凸显了立即、大幅和持续减少温室气体排放以及景观和火灾管理策略对于稳定火灾对生命、生计和生态系统影响的重要性。
{"title":"Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change","authors":"Chantelle Burton, Seppe Lampe, Douglas I. Kelley, Wim Thiery, Stijn Hantson, Nikos Christidis, Lukas Gudmundsson, Matthew Forrest, Eleanor Burke, Jinfeng Chang, Huilin Huang, Akihiko Ito, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Gitta Lasslop, Wei Li, Lars Nieradzik, Fang Li, Yang Chen, James Randerson, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w","url":null,"abstract":"Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems. Complex interactions between drivers have hampered efforts to understand observed changes in fire behaviour worldwide. Here fire model ensembles and impact attribution show that climate change increasingly explains changes in global burned area.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1186-1192"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142452001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z
Nicholas C. Wu, Rafael Parelli Bovo, Urtzi Enriquez-Urzelai, Susana Clusella-Trullas, Michael R. Kearney, Carlos A. Navas, Jacinta D. Kong
Compared with the risks associated with climate warming and extremes, the risks of climate-induced drying to animal species remain understudied. This is particularly true for water-sensitive groups, such as anurans (frogs and toads), whose long-term survival must be considered in the context of both environmental changes and species sensitivity. Here, we mapped global areas where anurans will face increasing water limitations, analysed ecotype sensitivity to water loss and modelled behavioural activity impacts under future climate change scenarios. Predictions indicate that 6.6–33.6% of anuran habitats will become arid like by 2080–2100, with 15.4–36.1% exposed to worsening drought, under an intermediate- and high-emission scenario, respectively. Arid conditions are expected to double water loss rates, and combined drought and warming will double reductions in anuran activity compared with warming impacts alone by 2080–2100. These findings underscore the pervasive synergistic threat of warming and environmental drying to anurans. The authors consider the future risks of warming and drying to water-sensitive anuran species. They show that increased aridity of anuran habitats and drought exposure under climate change, combined with warming, can substantially reduce anuran activity.
{"title":"Global exposure risk of frogs to increasing environmental dryness","authors":"Nicholas C. Wu, Rafael Parelli Bovo, Urtzi Enriquez-Urzelai, Susana Clusella-Trullas, Michael R. Kearney, Carlos A. Navas, Jacinta D. Kong","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z","url":null,"abstract":"Compared with the risks associated with climate warming and extremes, the risks of climate-induced drying to animal species remain understudied. This is particularly true for water-sensitive groups, such as anurans (frogs and toads), whose long-term survival must be considered in the context of both environmental changes and species sensitivity. Here, we mapped global areas where anurans will face increasing water limitations, analysed ecotype sensitivity to water loss and modelled behavioural activity impacts under future climate change scenarios. Predictions indicate that 6.6–33.6% of anuran habitats will become arid like by 2080–2100, with 15.4–36.1% exposed to worsening drought, under an intermediate- and high-emission scenario, respectively. Arid conditions are expected to double water loss rates, and combined drought and warming will double reductions in anuran activity compared with warming impacts alone by 2080–2100. These findings underscore the pervasive synergistic threat of warming and environmental drying to anurans. The authors consider the future risks of warming and drying to water-sensitive anuran species. They show that increased aridity of anuran habitats and drought exposure under climate change, combined with warming, can substantially reduce anuran activity.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1314-1322"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142451821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02141-9
Multiple fire models, within an impact attribution framework, have been used to explore how climate change is impacting fire worldwide. Results show that climate change is increasing burned area in most regions, particularly during periods of peak fire activity, and this effect is increasing over time. However, changes in population and land use are mitigating some of the effects of climate change.
{"title":"Climate change is increasingly affecting fires worldwide","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02141-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02141-9","url":null,"abstract":"Multiple fire models, within an impact attribution framework, have been used to explore how climate change is impacting fire worldwide. Results show that climate change is increasing burned area in most regions, particularly during periods of peak fire activity, and this effect is increasing over time. However, changes in population and land use are mitigating some of the effects of climate change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1123-1124"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142452004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-18DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02168-y
Charles A. Ogunbode, Rouven Doran, Arin H. Ayanian, Joonha Park, Akira Utsugi, Karlijn L. van den Broek, Jihane Ghorayeb, Sibele D. Aquino, Samuel Lins, John J. B. R. Aruta, Marc E. S. Reyes, Andreas Zick, Susan Clayton
Climate justice is increasingly prominent in climate change communication and advocacy but little is known about public understanding of the concept or how widely it resonates with different groups. In our global survey of 5,627 adults in 11 countries spanning the global north and south, most participants (66.2%) had never heard of climate justice. Nonetheless, endorsement of climate justice beliefs was widespread (for example, acknowledging the disproportionate impact of climate change on poor people and the underpinning roles of capitalism and colonialism in the climate crisis). Climate justice beliefs were also associated with various indices of climate action and policy support. These associations tended to be stronger in countries with high GHG emissions and where social inequality is also more politically salient. The results highlight the value of climate justice as a motive for climate action across diverse geographical contexts. Little is known about public understanding of climate justice, despite its increasing prominence in climate change communication. Here a global survey reveals that, although awareness of climate justice is low, beliefs in climate justice are widely supported across countries.
{"title":"Climate justice beliefs related to climate action and policy support around the world","authors":"Charles A. Ogunbode, Rouven Doran, Arin H. Ayanian, Joonha Park, Akira Utsugi, Karlijn L. van den Broek, Jihane Ghorayeb, Sibele D. Aquino, Samuel Lins, John J. B. R. Aruta, Marc E. S. Reyes, Andreas Zick, Susan Clayton","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02168-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02168-y","url":null,"abstract":"Climate justice is increasingly prominent in climate change communication and advocacy but little is known about public understanding of the concept or how widely it resonates with different groups. In our global survey of 5,627 adults in 11 countries spanning the global north and south, most participants (66.2%) had never heard of climate justice. Nonetheless, endorsement of climate justice beliefs was widespread (for example, acknowledging the disproportionate impact of climate change on poor people and the underpinning roles of capitalism and colonialism in the climate crisis). Climate justice beliefs were also associated with various indices of climate action and policy support. These associations tended to be stronger in countries with high GHG emissions and where social inequality is also more politically salient. The results highlight the value of climate justice as a motive for climate action across diverse geographical contexts. Little is known about public understanding of climate justice, despite its increasing prominence in climate change communication. Here a global survey reveals that, although awareness of climate justice is low, beliefs in climate justice are widely supported across countries.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1144-1150"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02168-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142448356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-15DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1
Roman Hoffmann, Guy Abel, Maurizio Malpede, Raya Muttarak, Marco Percoco
While the effects of climatic changes on migration have received widespread public and scientific attention, comparative evidence for their influence on internal migration worldwide remains scarce. Here we use census-based data from 72 countries (1960–2016) to analyse 107,840 migration flows between subnational regions. We find that increased drought and aridity have a significant impact on internal migration, particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East and South America. Migration patterns are shaped by the wealth, agricultural dependency and urbanization of both origin and destination areas with migration responses being stronger in rural and predominantly agricultural areas. While overall climatic effects on migration are stronger in richer countries, we observe higher out-migration from poorer towards wealthier regions within countries. Furthermore, age and education groups respond differently to climatic stress, highlighting distinct mobility patterns of population subgroups across different geographic contexts. Limited comparative evidence exists on the impacts of climatic factors on internal migration. Here, using a harmonized census-based dataset, the authors find that drought and aridity substantially increase internal migration, with considerable heterogeneity across regions, age groups and education levels.
{"title":"Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide","authors":"Roman Hoffmann, Guy Abel, Maurizio Malpede, Raya Muttarak, Marco Percoco","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1","url":null,"abstract":"While the effects of climatic changes on migration have received widespread public and scientific attention, comparative evidence for their influence on internal migration worldwide remains scarce. Here we use census-based data from 72 countries (1960–2016) to analyse 107,840 migration flows between subnational regions. We find that increased drought and aridity have a significant impact on internal migration, particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East and South America. Migration patterns are shaped by the wealth, agricultural dependency and urbanization of both origin and destination areas with migration responses being stronger in rural and predominantly agricultural areas. While overall climatic effects on migration are stronger in richer countries, we observe higher out-migration from poorer towards wealthier regions within countries. Furthermore, age and education groups respond differently to climatic stress, highlighting distinct mobility patterns of population subgroups across different geographic contexts. Limited comparative evidence exists on the impacts of climatic factors on internal migration. Here, using a harmonized census-based dataset, the authors find that drought and aridity substantially increase internal migration, with considerable heterogeneity across regions, age groups and education levels.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1245-1253"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142436282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-14DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02154-4
David H. Klinges
Climate influences when leaves change colour and fall, but not all trees lose their leaves at the same time. Combining field data, mathematical models and remote sensing, researchers show how local-scale variation in tree canopies and understory temperatures alters the start and duration of autumn leaf colouration and forecast reduced autumn delays under climate change.
{"title":"Microclimate regulates when autumn leaves fall","authors":"David H. Klinges","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02154-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02154-4","url":null,"abstract":"Climate influences when leaves change colour and fall, but not all trees lose their leaves at the same time. Combining field data, mathematical models and remote sensing, researchers show how local-scale variation in tree canopies and understory temperatures alters the start and duration of autumn leaf colouration and forecast reduced autumn delays under climate change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1226-1227"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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