Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02506-8
Bishawjit Mallick, Lori Mae Hunter, Brooke Ackerly, Rup Priodarshini, Ilan Kelman, Ingrid Boas, Brianna Castro, Mathias Czaika, Bayes Ahmed, Md. Nasif Ahsan, Mariana Fajardo Arboleda, Ajay Bailey, Mucahid M. Bayrak, Kelsea Best, Amanda Carrico, Jamie Draper, Benjamin Etzold, Carol Farbotko, Animesh Kumar Gain, Tuhin Ghosh, Jonathan M. Gilligan, Marco Helbich, S. M. Labib, Dora Martins Sampaio, Mostafa Naser, Kei Otsuki, Balgah Roland, Oishi Rani Saha, Patrick Sakdapolrak, Gopa Samanta, Klara Schmock, Harald Sterly, Zakia Sultana, Kees van der Geest, Anna Viani, Julia van den Berg
Adaptation to climate change goes beyond the migration–non-migration divide. Families and communities combine mobility with rootedness, drawing on cultural ties, intergenerational learning, and lived knowledge to navigate risks and shape long-term futures.
{"title":"Future-making beyond (im)mobility through tethered resilience","authors":"Bishawjit Mallick, Lori Mae Hunter, Brooke Ackerly, Rup Priodarshini, Ilan Kelman, Ingrid Boas, Brianna Castro, Mathias Czaika, Bayes Ahmed, Md. Nasif Ahsan, Mariana Fajardo Arboleda, Ajay Bailey, Mucahid M. Bayrak, Kelsea Best, Amanda Carrico, Jamie Draper, Benjamin Etzold, Carol Farbotko, Animesh Kumar Gain, Tuhin Ghosh, Jonathan M. Gilligan, Marco Helbich, S. M. Labib, Dora Martins Sampaio, Mostafa Naser, Kei Otsuki, Balgah Roland, Oishi Rani Saha, Patrick Sakdapolrak, Gopa Samanta, Klara Schmock, Harald Sterly, Zakia Sultana, Kees van der Geest, Anna Viani, Julia van den Berg","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02506-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02506-8","url":null,"abstract":"Adaptation to climate change goes beyond the migration–non-migration divide. Families and communities combine mobility with rootedness, drawing on cultural ties, intergenerational learning, and lived knowledge to navigate risks and shape long-term futures.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1257-1260"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145593762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Multiple climate-related stressors affect the ocean, including warming, acidification, deoxygenation and variations in salinity, with profound effects on Earth system cycles, marine ecosystems and human well-being. Nevertheless, a global perspective on the combined impacts of these changes on both surface and subsurface ocean conditions remains unclear. Here, applying a time-of-emergence methodology to observed physical and biogeochemical variables, collectively referred to as compound climatic impact-drivers, we show individual and compound ocean state changes have become increasingly prominent globally over the past 60 years. In particular, observations show the simultaneous emergence of compound climatic impact-drivers in regions spanning the subtropical and tropical Atlantic, the subtropical Pacific, the Arabian Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. We highlight extensive exposure of different ocean layers to compound emergence, characterized by significant intensity, duration and magnitude. These results provide a comprehensive framework and perspective to illustrate the ocean’s vulnerability to pervasive and interconnected changes in a warming climate. It is important to understand the combined effects of multiple changes on the ocean. Here the authors use time of emergence to highlight the increases in impacts of individual and compound changes globally from the surface to the deeper ocean, identifying areas most affected.
{"title":"Observed large-scale and deep-reaching compound ocean state changes over the past 60 years","authors":"Zhetao Tan, Karina von Schuckmann, Sabrina Speich, Laurent Bopp, Jiang Zhu, Lijing Cheng","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02484-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02484-x","url":null,"abstract":"Multiple climate-related stressors affect the ocean, including warming, acidification, deoxygenation and variations in salinity, with profound effects on Earth system cycles, marine ecosystems and human well-being. Nevertheless, a global perspective on the combined impacts of these changes on both surface and subsurface ocean conditions remains unclear. Here, applying a time-of-emergence methodology to observed physical and biogeochemical variables, collectively referred to as compound climatic impact-drivers, we show individual and compound ocean state changes have become increasingly prominent globally over the past 60 years. In particular, observations show the simultaneous emergence of compound climatic impact-drivers in regions spanning the subtropical and tropical Atlantic, the subtropical Pacific, the Arabian Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. We highlight extensive exposure of different ocean layers to compound emergence, characterized by significant intensity, duration and magnitude. These results provide a comprehensive framework and perspective to illustrate the ocean’s vulnerability to pervasive and interconnected changes in a warming climate. It is important to understand the combined effects of multiple changes on the ocean. Here the authors use time of emergence to highlight the increases in impacts of individual and compound changes globally from the surface to the deeper ocean, identifying areas most affected.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"58-68"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02484-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145593757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02501-z
Lingxiao Yan
Research on climate change requires continued support from funding agencies. Nature Climate Change spoke to experts from different organizations across the world to discuss how funding agencies can better promote future climate research and actions regarding interdisciplinary studies, international collaborations, supporting young scholars and more.
{"title":"Funding agencies to drive future climate change research","authors":"Lingxiao Yan","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02501-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02501-z","url":null,"abstract":"Research on climate change requires continued support from funding agencies. Nature Climate Change spoke to experts from different organizations across the world to discuss how funding agencies can better promote future climate research and actions regarding interdisciplinary studies, international collaborations, supporting young scholars and more.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1268-1270"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02501-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145593759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02507-7
Kelly Moon, Bianca van Bavel, Lea Berrang Ford, Kerry Badger, Laura Carter, Barbara Evans, William H. Gaze, Philip Howard, Arshnee Moodley, Kasim Allel, Min Na Eii, Sabiha Essack, David N. Fisman, Niklas Harring, Claas Kirchhelle, Anne F. C. Leonard, Sonia Lewycka, Derek R. MacFadden, Evelyn Madoroba, Eric R. Morgan, Windi Muziasari, Miriam Reverter, Barth F. Smets, Tracey Thornley, Li Shean Toh, Fiona Tomley, Sarah C. Walpole, Rebecca King
Interactions between climate change and antimicrobial resistance across terrestrial, aquatic and health systems reveal shared drivers, synergies and trade-offs that shape health and environmental outcomes. This Comment outlines a solutions-oriented research agenda to advance evidence and action that addresses climate change and antimicrobial resistance as interconnected issues.
{"title":"A research agenda advancing climate change and antimicrobial resistance as interconnected issues","authors":"Kelly Moon, Bianca van Bavel, Lea Berrang Ford, Kerry Badger, Laura Carter, Barbara Evans, William H. Gaze, Philip Howard, Arshnee Moodley, Kasim Allel, Min Na Eii, Sabiha Essack, David N. Fisman, Niklas Harring, Claas Kirchhelle, Anne F. C. Leonard, Sonia Lewycka, Derek R. MacFadden, Evelyn Madoroba, Eric R. Morgan, Windi Muziasari, Miriam Reverter, Barth F. Smets, Tracey Thornley, Li Shean Toh, Fiona Tomley, Sarah C. Walpole, Rebecca King","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02507-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02507-7","url":null,"abstract":"Interactions between climate change and antimicrobial resistance across terrestrial, aquatic and health systems reveal shared drivers, synergies and trade-offs that shape health and environmental outcomes. This Comment outlines a solutions-oriented research agenda to advance evidence and action that addresses climate change and antimicrobial resistance as interconnected issues.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1264-1267"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145583060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02504-w
Quan Zhang, Jiawei Zhang, Mark A. Adams, Giovanna Battipaglia, Lucas A. Cernusak, Laura Fernández-de-Uña, Darren L. Ficklin, Peter Hietz, J. Julio Camarero, Högne Jungner, Mathieu Lévesque, Stefano Manzoni, Justin T. Maxwell, Charles A. Nock, Josep Peñuelas, Klaus J. Puettmann, Matthias Saurer, Rocio Urrutia-Jalabert, Peter van der Sleen, Lixin Wang, Danielle A. Way, Yang Zhou, Pieter A. Zuidema, Gabriel G. Katul
Rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (ca) increase plant photosynthesis (An) and reduce stomatal conductance (gs). This increases the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE = An / gs), a major proxy of tree adaptation to climate change. However, whether an increase in iWUE leads to a concomitant increase in tree growth remains in dispute, prompting interest in theoretical links between iWUE and tree productivity. Here using an optimality theory for kinetics of stomatal aperture, we establish an envelope delineating maximal relative increases in tree productivity that can be inferred/expected from relative increases in iWUE. The resulting expressions are used to interpret relations between iWUE (an observable proxy) and tree growth (the target variable), using available experimental data from manipulation experiments and tree-ring isotopes. While rising ca increases iWUE, proportional increases in tree growth are unlikely given ameliorating environmental (for example, rising atmospheric dryness) and anatomical/physiological (for example, tree height) influences. The authors theoretically delineate the maximal increases in tree growth that can be expected from increases in plant intrinsic water-use efficiency, which increases with rising CO2. They highlight environmental and physiological limits on growth in the context of experimental data.
{"title":"Increased efficiency of water use does not stimulate tree productivity","authors":"Quan Zhang, Jiawei Zhang, Mark A. Adams, Giovanna Battipaglia, Lucas A. Cernusak, Laura Fernández-de-Uña, Darren L. Ficklin, Peter Hietz, J. Julio Camarero, Högne Jungner, Mathieu Lévesque, Stefano Manzoni, Justin T. Maxwell, Charles A. Nock, Josep Peñuelas, Klaus J. Puettmann, Matthias Saurer, Rocio Urrutia-Jalabert, Peter van der Sleen, Lixin Wang, Danielle A. Way, Yang Zhou, Pieter A. Zuidema, Gabriel G. Katul","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02504-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02504-w","url":null,"abstract":"Rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (ca) increase plant photosynthesis (An) and reduce stomatal conductance (gs). This increases the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE = An / gs), a major proxy of tree adaptation to climate change. However, whether an increase in iWUE leads to a concomitant increase in tree growth remains in dispute, prompting interest in theoretical links between iWUE and tree productivity. Here using an optimality theory for kinetics of stomatal aperture, we establish an envelope delineating maximal relative increases in tree productivity that can be inferred/expected from relative increases in iWUE. The resulting expressions are used to interpret relations between iWUE (an observable proxy) and tree growth (the target variable), using available experimental data from manipulation experiments and tree-ring isotopes. While rising ca increases iWUE, proportional increases in tree growth are unlikely given ameliorating environmental (for example, rising atmospheric dryness) and anatomical/physiological (for example, tree height) influences. The authors theoretically delineate the maximal increases in tree growth that can be expected from increases in plant intrinsic water-use efficiency, which increases with rising CO2. They highlight environmental and physiological limits on growth in the context of experimental data.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"87-94"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145583062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02498-5
Pieter Sanczuk, Jonathan Lenoir, Pierre Denelle, Sabine B. Rumpf, Jeremy Borderieux, Costanza Geppert, Brunno F. Oliveira, Ingmar R. Staude
Studies reporting shifts in species distributions may be biased by sampling choices, which can either exaggerate or underestimate range responses to various global changes. Here we demonstrate a geometric bias favouring sampling along latitude, which increases the likelihood of observing latitudinal range shifts as expected under climate warming. A global bias towards studying species redistributions preferentially along warming gradients may veil the true direction and magnitude of range shifts. The authors consider studies reporting species range shifts and demonstrate a geometric bias in sampling along latitudinal, rather than longitudinal, gradients. This bias may favour the corroboration of shift expectations with warming and mask other patterns and drivers of species movements.
{"title":"Global bias towards recording latitudinal range shifts","authors":"Pieter Sanczuk, Jonathan Lenoir, Pierre Denelle, Sabine B. Rumpf, Jeremy Borderieux, Costanza Geppert, Brunno F. Oliveira, Ingmar R. Staude","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02498-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02498-5","url":null,"abstract":"Studies reporting shifts in species distributions may be biased by sampling choices, which can either exaggerate or underestimate range responses to various global changes. Here we demonstrate a geometric bias favouring sampling along latitude, which increases the likelihood of observing latitudinal range shifts as expected under climate warming. A global bias towards studying species redistributions preferentially along warming gradients may veil the true direction and magnitude of range shifts. The authors consider studies reporting species range shifts and demonstrate a geometric bias in sampling along latitudinal, rather than longitudinal, gradients. This bias may favour the corroboration of shift expectations with warming and mask other patterns and drivers of species movements.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"21-25"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145559672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02474-z
X. Li, R. Silvestro, E. Liang, M. Mencuccini, J. J. Camarero, C. B. K. Rathgeber, J. D. Sylvain, C. Nabais, A. Giovannelli, A. Saracino, L. Saulino, R. Guerrieri, J. Gričar, P. Prislan, R. L. Peters, K. Čufar, B. Yang, S. Antonucci, E. Babushkina, F. Biondi, F. Campelo, M. Carrer, M. De Luis, A. Deslauriers, G. Drolet, M. Fajstavr, M. V. Fonti, P. Fonti, R. García-Valdés, A. Gruber, V. Gryc, A. Güney, J. Kašpar, A. V. Kirdyanov, A. A. Knorre, F. Lombardi, H. Mäkinen, R. A. Malik, E. Martinez del Castillo, P. Nöjd, W. Oberhuber, A. P. Ouimette, V. Shishov, R. Sukumar, R. Tognetti, V. Treml, H. Vavrčík, J. Vieira, Q. Zeng, E. Ziaco, S. Rossi
The dynamics of carbon allocation in trees affect carbon storage of forest ecosystems and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on Earth. Here, using carbon fluxes and xylem phenology from 84 conifer forests across the Northern Hemisphere, we quantify the phenology of carbon sources (photosynthesis) and sinks (stem growth) along a thermal gradient from −4.4 to 18.2 °C in mean annual temperature. The onset of stem growth advances by 2.3 days per degree Celsius with rising temperatures, 2 times slower than photosynthesis. Warmer sites accumulate less chilling than colder sites, thus trees require more heat to reactivate. The ending of photosynthesis and wood formation is delayed by 2.0 days per degree Celsius. Overall, the photosynthetic season lengthens by one month more than the growing season towards the warmest sites. Climate warming tends to intensify the mismatch between the phenology of carbon sources and sinks, potentially affecting the carbon sequestration in conifer forests. Measurements of carbon fluxes and wood phenology are used to assess carbon sources from photosynthesis and their sink into woody growth along a thermal gradient. The authors show that stem growth advances slower than photosynthesis per degree Celsius, creating a phenological mismatch for carbon.
{"title":"Warming increases the phenological mismatch between carbon sources and sinks in conifers","authors":"X. Li, R. Silvestro, E. Liang, M. Mencuccini, J. J. Camarero, C. B. K. Rathgeber, J. D. Sylvain, C. Nabais, A. Giovannelli, A. Saracino, L. Saulino, R. Guerrieri, J. Gričar, P. Prislan, R. L. Peters, K. Čufar, B. Yang, S. Antonucci, E. Babushkina, F. Biondi, F. Campelo, M. Carrer, M. De Luis, A. Deslauriers, G. Drolet, M. Fajstavr, M. V. Fonti, P. Fonti, R. García-Valdés, A. Gruber, V. Gryc, A. Güney, J. Kašpar, A. V. Kirdyanov, A. A. Knorre, F. Lombardi, H. Mäkinen, R. A. Malik, E. Martinez del Castillo, P. Nöjd, W. Oberhuber, A. P. Ouimette, V. Shishov, R. Sukumar, R. Tognetti, V. Treml, H. Vavrčík, J. Vieira, Q. Zeng, E. Ziaco, S. Rossi","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02474-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02474-z","url":null,"abstract":"The dynamics of carbon allocation in trees affect carbon storage of forest ecosystems and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on Earth. Here, using carbon fluxes and xylem phenology from 84 conifer forests across the Northern Hemisphere, we quantify the phenology of carbon sources (photosynthesis) and sinks (stem growth) along a thermal gradient from −4.4 to 18.2 °C in mean annual temperature. The onset of stem growth advances by 2.3 days per degree Celsius with rising temperatures, 2 times slower than photosynthesis. Warmer sites accumulate less chilling than colder sites, thus trees require more heat to reactivate. The ending of photosynthesis and wood formation is delayed by 2.0 days per degree Celsius. Overall, the photosynthetic season lengthens by one month more than the growing season towards the warmest sites. Climate warming tends to intensify the mismatch between the phenology of carbon sources and sinks, potentially affecting the carbon sequestration in conifer forests. Measurements of carbon fluxes and wood phenology are used to assess carbon sources from photosynthesis and their sink into woody growth along a thermal gradient. The authors show that stem growth advances slower than photosynthesis per degree Celsius, creating a phenological mismatch for carbon.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1363-1370"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145559674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02486-9
Qi Liu, Congbin Fu, Zhongfeng Xu, Aijun Ding
Global warming is increasing the number and intensity of many extreme weather and climate events. Here we argue that extreme day-to-day temperature changes, exceeding the 90th percentile threshold of historical records, are an independent, but largely ignored, aspect of extreme weather events. Such extreme temperature changes have a stronger impact on human health in many locations than do diurnal temperature variations. Global observations show that such events have become more frequent since the 1960s in low and mid-latitudes but decreased at high latitudes, primarily due to GHG forcing. Climate models project a further amplification of extreme day-to-day temperature changes under warming, with frequency, amplitude and total intensity rising by ~17%, ~3% and ~20%, respectively, by 2100 in regions covering 80% of global population. Increased extreme day-to-day temperature changes are associated with drier soil and increased variability in pressure and soil moisture, posing substantial risks to societal and ecosystem resilience and adaptation. Climate change is expected to lead to higher day-to-day temperature variability in mid- to low latitudes. Here the authors show that extreme day-to-day temperature changes have distinct impacts on human health and become more frequent and intense in mid- to low latitudes with climate change.
{"title":"Global warming intensifies extreme day-to-day temperature changes in mid–low latitudes","authors":"Qi Liu, Congbin Fu, Zhongfeng Xu, Aijun Ding","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02486-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02486-9","url":null,"abstract":"Global warming is increasing the number and intensity of many extreme weather and climate events. Here we argue that extreme day-to-day temperature changes, exceeding the 90th percentile threshold of historical records, are an independent, but largely ignored, aspect of extreme weather events. Such extreme temperature changes have a stronger impact on human health in many locations than do diurnal temperature variations. Global observations show that such events have become more frequent since the 1960s in low and mid-latitudes but decreased at high latitudes, primarily due to GHG forcing. Climate models project a further amplification of extreme day-to-day temperature changes under warming, with frequency, amplitude and total intensity rising by ~17%, ~3% and ~20%, respectively, by 2100 in regions covering 80% of global population. Increased extreme day-to-day temperature changes are associated with drier soil and increased variability in pressure and soil moisture, posing substantial risks to societal and ecosystem resilience and adaptation. Climate change is expected to lead to higher day-to-day temperature variability in mid- to low latitudes. Here the authors show that extreme day-to-day temperature changes have distinct impacts on human health and become more frequent and intense in mid- to low latitudes with climate change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"69-76"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02486-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145559671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-20DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02505-9
Yi Yang, Gang Liu, You Li, Xiaoyong Liao, Yonghua Li
Objective assessments indicate that extreme heat is increasing health risks; however, many of the most exposed populations do not perceive extreme heat as risky. This misperception may undermine public awareness of the need for effective cooling strategies, leaving a dangerous blind spot in adaptation and protection.
{"title":"Misalignment between objective and perceived heat risks","authors":"Yi Yang, Gang Liu, You Li, Xiaoyong Liao, Yonghua Li","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02505-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02505-9","url":null,"abstract":"Objective assessments indicate that extreme heat is increasing health risks; however, many of the most exposed populations do not perceive extreme heat as risky. This misperception may undermine public awareness of the need for effective cooling strategies, leaving a dangerous blind spot in adaptation and protection.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1261-1263"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145554251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-18DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02480-1
Christopher W. Callahan, Jared Trok, Andrew J. Wilson, Carlos F. Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
The potential death toll of exceptional extreme heat events is crucial for climate risk analysis and adaptation planning but may not be captured by existing projections. Here we combine machine learning-based projections of five historical European heat waves under present or future global temperatures with empirical exposure–response functions to quantify the potential for extreme heat events to generate mass mortality. For example, if August 2003 meteorological conditions recur at the recent annual global temperature anomaly of 1.5 °C, we project 17,800 excess deaths across Europe in one week, rising to 32,000 at 3 °C. This mortality is comparable to peak COVID-19 mortality in Europe and is not substantially reduced by climate adaptation currently observed across Europe. Our results suggest that while mitigating further global warming can reduce heat mortality, mass mortality events remain plausible at near-future temperatures despite current adaptations to heat. The authors couple calculations of historical heatwave intensity at present and future global temperatures with exposure–response functions to quantify mortality from extreme heat events in Europe. They project tens of thousands of excess deaths, with limited attenuation from existing adaptations.
{"title":"Increasing risk of mass human heat mortality if historical weather patterns recur","authors":"Christopher W. Callahan, Jared Trok, Andrew J. Wilson, Carlos F. Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02480-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02480-1","url":null,"abstract":"The potential death toll of exceptional extreme heat events is crucial for climate risk analysis and adaptation planning but may not be captured by existing projections. Here we combine machine learning-based projections of five historical European heat waves under present or future global temperatures with empirical exposure–response functions to quantify the potential for extreme heat events to generate mass mortality. For example, if August 2003 meteorological conditions recur at the recent annual global temperature anomaly of 1.5 °C, we project 17,800 excess deaths across Europe in one week, rising to 32,000 at 3 °C. This mortality is comparable to peak COVID-19 mortality in Europe and is not substantially reduced by climate adaptation currently observed across Europe. Our results suggest that while mitigating further global warming can reduce heat mortality, mass mortality events remain plausible at near-future temperatures despite current adaptations to heat. The authors couple calculations of historical heatwave intensity at present and future global temperatures with exposure–response functions to quantify mortality from extreme heat events in Europe. They project tens of thousands of excess deaths, with limited attenuation from existing adaptations.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"26-32"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02480-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145536157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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