Pub Date : 2023-09-28DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01810-5
Drew E. Terasaki Hart, Samantha Yeo, Maya Almaraz, Damien Beillouin, Rémi Cardinael, Edenise Garcia, Sonja Kay, Sarah Taylor Lovell, Todd S. Rosenstock, Starry Sprenkle-Hyppolite, Fred Stolle, Marta Suber, Bhuwan Thapa, Stephen Wood, Susan C. Cook-Patton
The expansion of agroforestry could provide substantial climate change mitigation (up to 0.31 Pg C yr−1), comparable to other prominent natural climate solutions such as reforestation. Yet, climate-focused agroforestry efforts grapple with ambiguity about which agroforestry actions provide mitigation, uncertainty about the magnitude of that mitigation and inability to reliably track progress. In this Perspective, we define agroforestry as a natural climate solution, discuss current understanding of the controls on farm-scale mitigation potential and highlight recent innovation on emergent, high-resolution remote sensing methods to enable detection, measurement and monitoring. We also assess the status of agroforestry in the context of global climate ambitions, highlighting regions of underappreciated expansion opportunity and identifying priorities for policy and praxis. In this Perspective, the authors highlight agroforestry as a natural climate solution, discussing definitional refinements, controls on mitigation potential and remote sensing innovations. They assess the status of agroforestry in the context of climate ambitions, identifying key areas and opportunities.
农林业的扩展可提供大量减缓气候变化的措施（高达 0.31 Pg C yr-1），可与植树造林等其他重要的自然气候解决方案相媲美。然而，以气候为重点的农林业工作在哪些农林业行动可提供减排效果、减排量的不确定性以及无法可靠地跟踪进展等方面存在着模糊不清的问题。在本《视角》中，我们将农林业定义为一种自然气候解决方案，讨论目前对农场规模减排潜力控制的理解，并重点介绍最近在新兴高分辨率遥感方法方面的创新，以实现检测、测量和监测。我们还评估了农林业在全球气候目标中的地位，强调了未被充分重视的扩展机会区域，并确定了政策和实践的优先事项。在本《视角》中，作者强调农林业是一种自然气候解决方案，讨论了定义的完善、减缓潜力的控制和遥感创新。他们从气候目标的角度评估了农林业的现状，确定了关键领域和机遇。
{"title":"Priority science can accelerate agroforestry as a natural climate solution","authors":"Drew E. Terasaki Hart, Samantha Yeo, Maya Almaraz, Damien Beillouin, Rémi Cardinael, Edenise Garcia, Sonja Kay, Sarah Taylor Lovell, Todd S. Rosenstock, Starry Sprenkle-Hyppolite, Fred Stolle, Marta Suber, Bhuwan Thapa, Stephen Wood, Susan C. Cook-Patton","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01810-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01810-5","url":null,"abstract":"The expansion of agroforestry could provide substantial climate change mitigation (up to 0.31 Pg C yr−1), comparable to other prominent natural climate solutions such as reforestation. Yet, climate-focused agroforestry efforts grapple with ambiguity about which agroforestry actions provide mitigation, uncertainty about the magnitude of that mitigation and inability to reliably track progress. In this Perspective, we define agroforestry as a natural climate solution, discuss current understanding of the controls on farm-scale mitigation potential and highlight recent innovation on emergent, high-resolution remote sensing methods to enable detection, measurement and monitoring. We also assess the status of agroforestry in the context of global climate ambitions, highlighting regions of underappreciated expansion opportunity and identifying priorities for policy and praxis. In this Perspective, the authors highlight agroforestry as a natural climate solution, discussing definitional refinements, controls on mitigation potential and remote sensing innovations. They assess the status of agroforestry in the context of climate ambitions, identifying key areas and opportunities.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 11","pages":"1179-1190"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135343678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-28DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01826-x
Sonja Klinsky
The global stocktake (GST) could both enable and hamper the inclusion of equity. This Comment outlines why equity is central to the GST and the challenges faced in addressing it, as well as the utility of needs-based assessments for advancing equity within the GST and the climate action generally.
{"title":"How needs-based assessments could advance equity in the global stocktake and beyond","authors":"Sonja Klinsky","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01826-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01826-x","url":null,"abstract":"The global stocktake (GST) could both enable and hamper the inclusion of equity. This Comment outlines why equity is central to the GST and the challenges faced in addressing it, as well as the utility of needs-based assessments for advancing equity within the GST and the climate action generally.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 10","pages":"1007-1009"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135385279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01828-9
Sean D. Connell, Jonathan Y. S. Leung
Reproducibility is a persistent concern in science and recently attracts considerable attention in assessing biological responses to ocean acidification. Here we track the reproducibility of the harmful effects of ocean acidification on calcification of shell-building organisms by conducting a meta-analysis of 373 studies across 24 years. The pioneering studies tended to report large negative effects, but as other researchers assimilated this research into understanding their biological systems, the size of negative effects declined. Such declines represent a scientific process by which discoveries are initially assimilated and their limitations are subsequently explored. We suggest that scientific novelties can polarize a discipline where researchers fail to distinguish between different motivations for testing a phenomenon, that is, its existence (theory proposal) versus its influence within ever-widening contexts (theory development). Where context dependency is high, the lack of reproducibility may not represent a crisis but a part of theory development and eventual gravitation towards a consensus position. To test the reproducibility of ocean acidification research, the authors conducted a meta-analysis of 373 studies on calcification of marine calcifiers across 24 years. While the size of negative effects declined over time, the results remained reproducible and their limitations were then explored.
{"title":"Reproducibility crisis and gravitation towards a consensus in ocean acidification research","authors":"Sean D. Connell, Jonathan Y. S. Leung","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01828-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01828-9","url":null,"abstract":"Reproducibility is a persistent concern in science and recently attracts considerable attention in assessing biological responses to ocean acidification. Here we track the reproducibility of the harmful effects of ocean acidification on calcification of shell-building organisms by conducting a meta-analysis of 373 studies across 24 years. The pioneering studies tended to report large negative effects, but as other researchers assimilated this research into understanding their biological systems, the size of negative effects declined. Such declines represent a scientific process by which discoveries are initially assimilated and their limitations are subsequently explored. We suggest that scientific novelties can polarize a discipline where researchers fail to distinguish between different motivations for testing a phenomenon, that is, its existence (theory proposal) versus its influence within ever-widening contexts (theory development). Where context dependency is high, the lack of reproducibility may not represent a crisis but a part of theory development and eventual gravitation towards a consensus position. To test the reproducibility of ocean acidification research, the authors conducted a meta-analysis of 373 studies on calcification of marine calcifiers across 24 years. While the size of negative effects declined over time, the results remained reproducible and their limitations were then explored.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 11","pages":"1266-1271"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135860705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01809-y
Stacy-ann Robinson, J. Timmons Roberts, Romain Weikmans, Danielle Falzon
The recent creation of a loss and damage fund under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was heralded as a major breakthrough for Global South negotiators. As details of the fund are currently being negotiated, some analysts are calling for ‘objective’ means through which funding would be allocated to ‘particularly vulnerable’ developing countries. On the basis of a review of past debates relating to the identification of priority beneficiaries of international adaptation finance, we caution that such an approach is likely to bring division and delay. Quantitative vulnerability indicators remain conceptually fraught and methodologically complex. Furthermore, the adoption of vulnerability indicators will not fully depoliticize allocation decisions, given the power dynamics between and among contributor and beneficiary countries. Establishment of the loss and damage fund is a major step in climate negotiations for Global South countries, yet resource allocation remains unsettled. This Review shows how vulnerability-based approaches are variable and complex, with the adoption of quantitative measures likely to bring division.
{"title":"Vulnerability-based allocations in loss and damage finance","authors":"Stacy-ann Robinson, J. Timmons Roberts, Romain Weikmans, Danielle Falzon","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01809-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01809-y","url":null,"abstract":"The recent creation of a loss and damage fund under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was heralded as a major breakthrough for Global South negotiators. As details of the fund are currently being negotiated, some analysts are calling for ‘objective’ means through which funding would be allocated to ‘particularly vulnerable’ developing countries. On the basis of a review of past debates relating to the identification of priority beneficiaries of international adaptation finance, we caution that such an approach is likely to bring division and delay. Quantitative vulnerability indicators remain conceptually fraught and methodologically complex. Furthermore, the adoption of vulnerability indicators will not fully depoliticize allocation decisions, given the power dynamics between and among contributor and beneficiary countries. Establishment of the loss and damage fund is a major step in climate negotiations for Global South countries, yet resource allocation remains unsettled. This Review shows how vulnerability-based approaches are variable and complex, with the adoption of quantitative measures likely to bring division.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 10","pages":"1055-1062"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136136230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01819-w
Eric Rignot
Ice melt processes that take place at the ice–ocean boundary of Greenland and Antarctic glaciers play a pivotal role in their evolution and contribution to sea-level rise, but widespread observations in these regions are lacking. A major observational initiative will be necessary to drastically reduce uncertainties in projections and better prepare society for sea-level rise.
{"title":"Observations of grounding zones are the missing key to understand ice melt in Antarctica","authors":"Eric Rignot","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01819-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01819-w","url":null,"abstract":"Ice melt processes that take place at the ice–ocean boundary of Greenland and Antarctic glaciers play a pivotal role in their evolution and contribution to sea-level rise, but widespread observations in these regions are lacking. A major observational initiative will be necessary to drastically reduce uncertainties in projections and better prepare society for sea-level rise.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 10","pages":"1010-1013"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136136236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01812-3
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Diego G. Miralles, Miguel D. Mahecha, Johannes Quaas, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Zscheischler, Jian Peng
Quantifying changes in hot temperature extremes is key for developing adaptation strategies. Changes in hot extremes are often determined on the basis of air temperatures; however, hydrology and many biogeochemical processes are more sensitive to soil temperature. Here we show that soil hot extremes are increasing faster than air hot extremes by 0.7 °C per decade in intensity and twice as fast in frequency on average over Central Europe. Furthermore, we identify soil temperature as a key factor in the soil moisture–temperature feedback. During dry and warm conditions, the energy absorbed by the soil is used to warm the soil, increasing the release of sensible heat flux and surface air temperatures. This increase in surface air temperature leads to a higher atmospheric demand for water, increasing soil evaporation, which may further dry and warm the soil highlighting the contribution of soil moisture–temperature feedback to the evolution of hot extremes in a warming climate. Changes in air temperature are usually considered for quantifying changes in temperature extremes such as heatwaves. This study shows that the incidence of heat extremes in soils is increasing faster than air temperature in some regions, with implications for hydrological and biogeochemical processes.
{"title":"Soil heat extremes can outpace air temperature extremes","authors":"Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Diego G. Miralles, Miguel D. Mahecha, Johannes Quaas, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Zscheischler, Jian Peng","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01812-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01812-3","url":null,"abstract":"Quantifying changes in hot temperature extremes is key for developing adaptation strategies. Changes in hot extremes are often determined on the basis of air temperatures; however, hydrology and many biogeochemical processes are more sensitive to soil temperature. Here we show that soil hot extremes are increasing faster than air hot extremes by 0.7 °C per decade in intensity and twice as fast in frequency on average over Central Europe. Furthermore, we identify soil temperature as a key factor in the soil moisture–temperature feedback. During dry and warm conditions, the energy absorbed by the soil is used to warm the soil, increasing the release of sensible heat flux and surface air temperatures. This increase in surface air temperature leads to a higher atmospheric demand for water, increasing soil evaporation, which may further dry and warm the soil highlighting the contribution of soil moisture–temperature feedback to the evolution of hot extremes in a warming climate. Changes in air temperature are usually considered for quantifying changes in temperature extremes such as heatwaves. This study shows that the incidence of heat extremes in soils is increasing faster than air temperature in some regions, with implications for hydrological and biogeochemical processes.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 11","pages":"1237-1241"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01812-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136102041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-20DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01808-z
Ruochong Xu, Dan Tong, Steven J. Davis, Xinying Qin, Jing Cheng, Qinren Shi, Yang Liu, Cuihong Chen, Liu Yan, Xizhe Yan, Huaxuan Wang, Dongsheng Zheng, Kebin He, Qiang Zhang
The critical role of the iron and steel industry in decarbonizing global energy systems calls for refined strategies of climate mitigation. Here, based on a newly developed database of individual iron and steel facilities worldwide, we explore the distinct differences in age-to-capacity ratio and emissions intensity of primary steelmaking plants. We customize regional cost-effective decarbonization strategies by targeting a certain proportion of plants. We find that the more effective indicator for targeted decarbonization in developing regions is emissions intensity, while for developed countries it is age-to-capacity ratio. Whichever indicator we use to target plants, the strategy of transformation towards secondary steelmaking is generally more cost-effective than efficiency improvement in most cases, although obvious regional priorities exist. Our results emphasize the region-specific priorities of mitigation indicators and strategies in targeting plants, which help with designing short-term, cost-effective strategies for reducing steel-related CO2 emissions. The decarbonization of the global iron and steel industry is important for energy systems mitigation. Using a facility-level database, this Article presents cost-effective, region-specific strategies targeting plants with a large age-to-capacity ratio and/or high emissions intensity.
{"title":"Plant-by-plant decarbonization strategies for the global steel industry","authors":"Ruochong Xu, Dan Tong, Steven J. Davis, Xinying Qin, Jing Cheng, Qinren Shi, Yang Liu, Cuihong Chen, Liu Yan, Xizhe Yan, Huaxuan Wang, Dongsheng Zheng, Kebin He, Qiang Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01808-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01808-z","url":null,"abstract":"The critical role of the iron and steel industry in decarbonizing global energy systems calls for refined strategies of climate mitigation. Here, based on a newly developed database of individual iron and steel facilities worldwide, we explore the distinct differences in age-to-capacity ratio and emissions intensity of primary steelmaking plants. We customize regional cost-effective decarbonization strategies by targeting a certain proportion of plants. We find that the more effective indicator for targeted decarbonization in developing regions is emissions intensity, while for developed countries it is age-to-capacity ratio. Whichever indicator we use to target plants, the strategy of transformation towards secondary steelmaking is generally more cost-effective than efficiency improvement in most cases, although obvious regional priorities exist. Our results emphasize the region-specific priorities of mitigation indicators and strategies in targeting plants, which help with designing short-term, cost-effective strategies for reducing steel-related CO2 emissions. The decarbonization of the global iron and steel industry is important for energy systems mitigation. Using a facility-level database, this Article presents cost-effective, region-specific strategies targeting plants with a large age-to-capacity ratio and/or high emissions intensity.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 10","pages":"1067-1074"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136263342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-18DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01790-6
Eliza Fragkopoulou, Alex Sen Gupta, Mark John Costello, Thomas Wernberg, Miguel B. Araújo, Ester A. Serrão, Olivier De Clerck, Jorge Assis
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are becoming increasingly common, with devastating ecosystem impacts. However, MHW understanding has almost exclusively relied on sea surface temperature with limited knowledge about their subsurface characteristics. Here we estimate global MHWs from the surface to 2,000 m depth, covering the period 1993–2019, and explore biodiversity exposure to their effects. We find that MHWs are typically more intense in the subsurface at 50–200 m and their duration increases up to twofold with depth, although with large spatial variability linked to different oceanographic conditions. Cumulative intensity (a thermal stress proxy) was highest in the upper 250 m, exposing subsurface biodiversity to MHW effects. This can be particularly concerning for up to 22% of the ocean, where high cumulative intensity overlapped the warm range edge of species distributions, thus being more sensitive to thermal stress. Subsurface MHWs can hence drive biodiversity patterns, with consequent effects on ecological interactions and ecosystem processes. The authors estimate the intensity, duration and number of global marine heatwaves from 1993 to 2019, from the surface to 2,000 m. They show generally higher intensity of marine heatwaves at 50–200 m, but increased duration with depth, and predict ocean regions of higher biodiversity exposure.
{"title":"Marine biodiversity exposed to prolonged and intense subsurface heatwaves","authors":"Eliza Fragkopoulou, Alex Sen Gupta, Mark John Costello, Thomas Wernberg, Miguel B. Araújo, Ester A. Serrão, Olivier De Clerck, Jorge Assis","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01790-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01790-6","url":null,"abstract":"Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are becoming increasingly common, with devastating ecosystem impacts. However, MHW understanding has almost exclusively relied on sea surface temperature with limited knowledge about their subsurface characteristics. Here we estimate global MHWs from the surface to 2,000 m depth, covering the period 1993–2019, and explore biodiversity exposure to their effects. We find that MHWs are typically more intense in the subsurface at 50–200 m and their duration increases up to twofold with depth, although with large spatial variability linked to different oceanographic conditions. Cumulative intensity (a thermal stress proxy) was highest in the upper 250 m, exposing subsurface biodiversity to MHW effects. This can be particularly concerning for up to 22% of the ocean, where high cumulative intensity overlapped the warm range edge of species distributions, thus being more sensitive to thermal stress. Subsurface MHWs can hence drive biodiversity patterns, with consequent effects on ecological interactions and ecosystem processes. The authors estimate the intensity, duration and number of global marine heatwaves from 1993 to 2019, from the surface to 2,000 m. They show generally higher intensity of marine heatwaves at 50–200 m, but increased duration with depth, and predict ocean regions of higher biodiversity exposure.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 10","pages":"1114-1121"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135110212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-18DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01801-6
Bin Wang, Weiyi Sun, Chunhan Jin, Xiao Luo, Young-Min Yang, Tim Li, Baoqiang Xiang, Michael J. McPhaden, Mark A. Cane, Feifei Jin, Fei Liu, Jian Liu
Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific. Recent decades have seen the increasing frequency of multiyear La Niña events. Here the authors find that there are two different types of multiyear La Niña that are each linked to different mechanisms related to warming in the western equatorial Pacific.
{"title":"Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas","authors":"Bin Wang, Weiyi Sun, Chunhan Jin, Xiao Luo, Young-Min Yang, Tim Li, Baoqiang Xiang, Michael J. McPhaden, Mark A. Cane, Feifei Jin, Fei Liu, Jian Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01801-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01801-6","url":null,"abstract":"Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific. Recent decades have seen the increasing frequency of multiyear La Niña events. Here the authors find that there are two different types of multiyear La Niña that are each linked to different mechanisms related to warming in the western equatorial Pacific.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 10","pages":"1075-1081"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135151703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-18DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01796-0
An insight into the global patterns of marine heatwaves from the surface to depths of 2,000 m reveals that subsurface events are more intense and long-lasting than surface ones. Biodiversity exposure to the effects of marine heatwaves is higher at depths of 50–250 m, suggesting that subsurface biodiversity could be at considerable risk.
{"title":"Intense and prolonged subsurface marine heatwaves pose risk to biodiversity","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01796-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01796-0","url":null,"abstract":"An insight into the global patterns of marine heatwaves from the surface to depths of 2,000 m reveals that subsurface events are more intense and long-lasting than surface ones. Biodiversity exposure to the effects of marine heatwaves is higher at depths of 50–250 m, suggesting that subsurface biodiversity could be at considerable risk.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 10","pages":"1029-1030"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135151704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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