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Impacts of global warming on coastal flood risk to European surface transport infrastructure 全球变暖对沿海洪水风险对欧洲地面运输基础设施的影响
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02518-4
A Europe-wide probabilistic assessment of coastal flood risk to road and rail infrastructure, at different levels of global warming, shows that each increment of warming amplifies flood damage. Smaller economies face the greatest relative economic impacts, and several countries will need to increase and potentially realign transport investments towards climate resilience.
在不同的全球变暖水平下,欧洲范围内沿海道路和铁路基础设施的洪水风险概率评估表明,每一次变暖都会放大洪水破坏。较小的经济体面临的相对经济影响最大,一些国家将需要增加并可能重新调整运输投资,以适应气候变化。
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引用次数: 0
Weakening mountain vegetation aspect asymmetry due to altered energy conditions 能量条件改变导致山地植被坡向不对称性减弱
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02542-4
Qing Tian  (, ), Feng Tian  (, )
Topography in mountain areas redistributes the incoming solar radiation and determines water availability, creating microclimates and forming distinct habitat conditions within short distances. How this local topography modulates the impacts of climate change on the growth of vegetation on mountains at large scales remains unclear. Here we quantify the difference in vegetation density between polar-facing and equatorial-facing slopes (defined as aspect asymmetry) across the Northern Hemisphere and find a weakening trend of aspect asymmetry from 2003 to 2024. For regions that show higher vegetation density on the polar-facing slopes, the magnitude, area and seasonal duration of aspect asymmetry all decreased, implying a reduction in water control on vegetation growth. Further analyses show that the observed changes in vegetation aspect asymmetry are attributable to hydrothermal conditions, and are dominated by solar radiation and temperature in particular. Our findings highlight changes in an underexplored but important part of mountain ecosystems, with implications for ecological stability under climate change. The authors quantify long-term (2003–2024) changes in Northern Hemisphere mountain aspect asymmetry—the difference in vegetation density between polar-facing and equatorial-facing slopes. They show a weakening trend, linked to changing hydrothermal conditions.
山区的地形重新分配了入射的太阳辐射,决定了水的可用性,创造了小气候,并在短距离内形成了独特的栖息地条件。这种局部地形如何在大尺度上调节气候变化对山区植被生长的影响尚不清楚。在此,我们量化了北半球面向极坡和面向赤道坡的植被密度差异(定义为坡向不对称),发现从2003年到2024年,坡向不对称有减弱的趋势。坡面朝极植被密度较高的区域,坡向不对称的程度、面积和季节持续时间均减小,表明水分对植被生长的控制作用减弱。进一步分析表明,植被坡向不对称的变化与热液条件有关,主要受太阳辐射和温度的影响。我们的研究结果强调了山区生态系统中一个未被充分开发但重要的部分的变化,这对气候变化下的生态稳定性具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Channelized melt beneath Antarctic ice shelves previously underestimated 以前被低估的南极冰架下的水道化融化
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02537-1
Ann-Sofie P. Zinck, Stef Lhermitte, Martin G. Wearing, Bert Wouters
While of critical importance for coastal communities, Antarctica’s future sea-level contribution remains highly uncertain. This uncertainty largely stems from the complex interaction between the ocean and the ice shelves, which is both difficult to observe and model. To better understand and constrain land-ice response to reduced buttressing exerted by ice shelves, efforts are needed to fully comprehend basal melt rates and their impact on ice shelf weakening and retreat. Here we present high-resolution basal melt maps (50 m) of vulnerable ice shelves based on a combination of stereo imagery and satellite altimetry, revealing pronounced channelized melting patterns whose melt rates were previously substantially underestimated (42–50%), which could result in faster channel breakthrough. Accurately simulating small-scale dynamics in ice-sheet models remains challenging but is essential for accurate sea-level rise projections. Channelized subsurface melting is an important process in the dynamics of ice shelves. Here the authors present observational data from Antarctic ice shelves and show that their basal melt is up to 50% higher than previously assumed.
虽然对沿海社区至关重要,但南极洲对未来海平面的贡献仍然高度不确定。这种不确定性很大程度上源于海洋和冰架之间复杂的相互作用,这种相互作用既难以观测,也难以建立模型。为了更好地理解和约束陆冰对冰架支撑作用减弱的响应,需要努力全面了解基础融化速率及其对冰架减弱和退缩的影响。在这里,我们提出了基于立体图像和卫星测高相结合的脆弱冰架的高分辨率基础融化图(50米),揭示了明显的通道化融化模式,其融化速率以前被大大低估(42-50%),这可能导致更快的通道突破。在冰盖模式中精确模拟小尺度动力学仍然具有挑战性,但对于准确预测海平面上升至关重要。沟槽化地下融化是冰架动力学中的一个重要过程。在这里,作者提出了来自南极冰架的观测数据,并表明它们的基底融化比先前假设的要高出50%。
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引用次数: 0
Enduring impacts of El Niño on life expectancy in past and future climates 厄尔尼诺Niño对过去和未来气候中预期寿命的持久影响
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02534-4
Yanbin Xu, Wenjun Zhu, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Benjamin P. Horton
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate variability, yet its long-term effect on life expectancy remains unclear. Here we quantify how ENSO persistently impedes mortality improvement, leading to considerable life expectancy and economic losses across high-income Pacific Rim countries. We estimate life expectancy losses of 0.5 years (monetary equivalent loss of US$2.6 trillion) for the 1982–1983 El Niño and 0.4 years (US$4.7 trillion) for the 1997–1998 event. Climate projections under moderate emissions pathways suggest a cumulative decline of 2.8 years in life expectancy by 2100, amounting to US$35 trillion losses, with most of the monetary burden falling on the middle-aged population. These findings reveal that intensifying ENSO variability poses an underrecognized and enduring threat to human health and socio-economic stability, underscoring the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to safeguard population well-being. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation threatens human health, and its impacts are likely to intensify under climate change. This research examines how historical El Niño–Southern Oscillation events have caused life expectancy and economic losses across the Pacific Rim and projects future impacts and vulnerable groups.
厄尔尼诺Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)是全球气候变率的主要驱动因素,但其对预期寿命的长期影响尚不清楚。在这里,我们量化了ENSO如何持续阻碍死亡率的改善,导致高收入环太平洋国家的预期寿命和经济损失。我们估计1982-1983年厄尔尼诺Niño事件的预期寿命损失为0.5年(货币等值损失为2.6万亿美元),1997-1998年事件的预期寿命损失为0.4年(4.7万亿美元)。在适度排放路径下的气候预测表明,到2100年,预期寿命将累计下降2.8年,相当于35万亿美元的损失,其中大部分经济负担落在中年人口身上。这些研究结果表明,ENSO变异性的加剧对人类健康和社会经济稳定构成了未得到充分认识的持久威胁,强调迫切需要制定有针对性的适应战略,以保障人口福祉。
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引用次数: 0
Irreversibility in climate action 气候行动的不可逆性
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02526-4
Corinne Le Quéré, Charlie Wilson, Harriet Barton, Jim W. Hall, Asher Minns, Millie Prosser, Amy E. Russell, Mark G. L. Tebboth, Nigel Topping
Although climate action is undermined by political interests and institutional inertia, multiple safeguards are in place to prevent backsliding on progress so far, and positive feedbacks reinforce progress despite opposing forces. Key elements of climate action are irreversible and can be further strengthened by commitments, investments and positive narratives.
尽管气候行动受到政治利益和制度惰性的影响,但已有多项保障措施防止迄今取得的进展出现倒退,积极的反馈也会在相互对立的力量下加强进展。气候行动的关键要素是不可逆转的,可以通过承诺、投资和积极的叙述进一步加强。
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引用次数: 0
AI-driven weather forecasts for climate adaptation in India 印度气候适应人工智能天气预报
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02521-9
Neelima Vallangi
Advanced monsoon onset prediction with multi-week lead time via an artificial intelligence (AI) weather model helps smallholder farmers adapt to a changing climate.
通过人工智能(AI)天气模型进行提前数周的高级季风开始预测,帮助小农适应不断变化的气候。
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引用次数: 0
Successes in climate action 气候行动的成功
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02546-0
Climate action clearly needs greater ambition in the face of increasing physical, biological and social impacts. However, it is important to acknowledge successes, including safeguards that protect action so far, and there are initiatives being implemented across scales that are effective.
面对日益严重的自然、生物和社会影响,气候行动显然需要更大的雄心。然而,重要的是要承认成功,包括迄今为止保护行动的保障措施,以及跨规模实施的有效举措。
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引用次数: 0
Communicating the need for climate action 传达采取气候行动的必要性
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02503-x
Joris Lammers, Felix Johannes Formanski
It is essential to understand the best way to frame a persuasive message aimed at increasing concern about climate change and support for pro-environmental action. Now a Registered Report presents a large-scale study that tests and compares the effectiveness of ten widely cited messaging strategies.
重要的是要了解如何以最好的方式来组织一个有说服力的信息,以增加对气候变化的关注和对环保行动的支持。现在,一份注册报告提出了一项大规模的研究,测试并比较了十种被广泛引用的消息传递策略的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
A registered report megastudy on the persuasiveness of the most-cited climate messages 一份关于最常被引用的气候信息的说服力的注册报告
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02536-2
Jan G. Voelkel, Ashwini Ashokkumar, Adina T. Abeles, Jarret T. Crawford, Kylie Fuller, Chrystal Redekopp, Renata Bongiorno, Troy H. Campbell, Ullrich K. H. Ecker, Matthew Feinberg, P. Sol Hart, Matthew J. Hornsey, John T. Jost, Aaron C. Kay, Anthony Leiserowitz, Stephan Lewandowsky, Edward Maibach, Erik C. Nisbet, Nick F. Pidgeon, Alexa Spence, Sander van der Linden, Christopher V. Wolsko, Jane K. Willenbring, Neil Malhotra, Robb Willer
It is important to understand how persuasive the most-cited climate change messaging strategies are. In five replication studies, we found limited evidence of persuasive effects of three highly cited strategies (N = 3,216). We then conducted a registered report megastudy (N = 13,544) testing the effects of the 10 most-cited climate change messaging strategies on Americans’ pro-environmental attitudes and behaviour. Six messages significantly affected multiple preregistered attitudes, with effects ranging from 1 to 4 percentage points. Persuasiveness varied little across party lines, inconsistent with theories predicting heterogeneous effects for targeted messages. No message increased pro-environmental donations, suggesting costly behaviours are difficult to influence with messaging alone. Inference of mechanisms driving effects was limited as the most impactful messages influenced multiple mediating variables. Taken together, these results identify several persuasive strategies, while also highlighting the limits of short-form messages for increasing Americans’ support for action to address climate change. The Stage 1 protocol for this Registered Report was accepted in principle on 7 August 2023. The protocol, as accepted by the journal, can be found at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25807429 . How to effectively communicate climate change to the public has long been studied and debated. Through a registered report megastudy, researchers tested the ten most-cited climate change messaging strategies published, finding that many had significant, but small, effects on climate change attitudes.
了解最常被引用的气候变化信息策略的说服力是很重要的。在五项重复研究中,我们发现三种高引用策略的说服力效果证据有限(N = 3216)。然后,我们进行了一项注册报告大型研究(N = 13,544),测试了10种最常被引用的气候变化信息传递策略对美国人亲环境态度和行为的影响。6条信息显著影响了多个预先登记的态度,影响幅度从1到4个百分点不等。不同党派的说服力差异不大,这与预测目标信息的异质效应的理论不一致。没有信息会增加环保捐款,这表明仅靠信息很难影响昂贵的行为。对机制驱动效应的推断是有限的,因为最具影响力的信息影响多个中介变量。综上所述,这些结果确定了几种有说服力的策略,同时也强调了简短信息在增加美国人对应对气候变化行动的支持方面的局限性。本注册报告的第一阶段议定书于2023年8月7日原则上获得接受。该协议已被该杂志接受,可在https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25807429上找到。如何有效地向公众传达气候变化是长期以来研究和争论的问题。通过一项注册报告的大型研究,研究人员测试了10个被引用最多的气候变化信息传递策略,发现其中许多对气候变化态度有显著但很小的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Building material stock drives embodied carbon emissions and risks future climate goals in China 中国建筑材料库存驱动隐含碳排放,对未来气候目标构成风险
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02527-3
Chaoqun Zhang, Lin Yang, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Jianping Guo, Ziyue Chen, Shaoying Li, Zhen Wang, Mei-po Kwan, Yuyu Zhou, Lu Lin, Liqiang Zhang, Manchun Li, Qiqi Zhu, Bailang Yu, Bin Chen, Xing Yan, Xiaoqi Wang, Bingbo Gao, Ying Liang, Jianqiang Hu, Yuheng Fu, Qiancheng Lv, Jing Yang, Yanzhao Wang, Qianqian Wang, Qiao Wang
Long-term effects of massive building material use in China, which experienced intense urbanization in the past two decades, remain insufficiently explored. Here, to fill these gaps, we developed a high-resolution time-series database of building material stocks from 2000 to 2019 and found that China held 15% of the global stock, which accounted for 19% of the country’s total carbon emissions. Although rapid urbanization generally increased per capita building material stock, the extent of this increase varied across cities and building types. We show that the growth rate has slowed since 2016; however, it remains challenging to simultaneously achieve both carbon-neutrality and urbanization goals. Future urbanization in China is projected to consume 12.5% of the nation’s total 1.5 °C carbon budget and 37.4% of its average annual budget allocation. Addressing these challenges requires targeted urban interventions, such as aligning low-carbon material production with projected regional demand and strategically planning materials recycling from future building demolitions. Reducing the embodied carbon emissions of building material stock is essential for mitigation. Using a high-resolution multiyear dataset in China, researchers show the historically massive contributions of these emissions during past decades of rapid urbanization and the potential risks for future climate goals.
中国在过去二十年经历了剧烈的城市化,大量使用建筑材料的长期影响仍未得到充分探讨。在这里,为了填补这些空白,我们开发了一个2000年至2019年建筑材料库存的高分辨率时间序列数据库,发现中国拥有全球15%的库存,占该国碳排放总量的19%。虽然快速城市化总体上增加了人均建筑材料库存,但这种增加的程度因城市和建筑类型而异。我们显示,自2016年以来,增长速度有所放缓;然而,同时实现碳中和和城市化目标仍然具有挑战性。中国未来的城市化预计将消耗全国1.5°C碳预算总额的12.5%和年均预算分配的37.4%。应对这些挑战需要有针对性的城市干预措施,例如将低碳材料生产与预计的区域需求相结合,并战略性地规划未来拆除建筑的材料回收。
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Nature Climate Change
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