Pub Date : 2024-11-04DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02170-4
Ahmed I. Abdo, Daolin Sun, Zhaoji Shi, Mohamed K. Abdel-Fattah, Jiaen Zhang, Yakov Kuzyakov
Intensification of farming since the Green Revolution has led to large increases in yield but has also increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Here, by providing a global comprehensive cradle-to-gate quantification from seed to yield, we show that the global warming potential (GWP) of conventional agriculture of grain crops has increased eightfold from 1961 to 2020, whereas the sustainability index (SI) has decreased threefold. Tillage, synthetic fertilizers and irrigation together accounted for 90% of the increased GWP, linked to tenfold increases in fertilization and groundwater use and more than doubled mechanized and irrigated areas. We highlight regions with high GWP and low SI, such as South Asia, and project further threefold increases in agriculture GWP by 2100 compared with 2020 (3.3 ± 0.73 PgCO2e) driven by declined use efficiency of the inputs. Green energy and climate-smart agriculture techniques can reduce the projected GWP in 2100 to 2.3 PgCO2e and increase the SI fourfold. The authors provide a global, cradle-to-gate quantification of the changes in the global warming potential and sustainability index of conventional agriculture from 1961 to the 2020s. They show an eightfold global warming potential increase and threefold decrease in sustainability index, largely due to tillage, fertilizer use and irrigation.
{"title":"Conventional agriculture increases global warming while decreasing system sustainability","authors":"Ahmed I. Abdo, Daolin Sun, Zhaoji Shi, Mohamed K. Abdel-Fattah, Jiaen Zhang, Yakov Kuzyakov","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02170-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02170-4","url":null,"abstract":"Intensification of farming since the Green Revolution has led to large increases in yield but has also increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Here, by providing a global comprehensive cradle-to-gate quantification from seed to yield, we show that the global warming potential (GWP) of conventional agriculture of grain crops has increased eightfold from 1961 to 2020, whereas the sustainability index (SI) has decreased threefold. Tillage, synthetic fertilizers and irrigation together accounted for 90% of the increased GWP, linked to tenfold increases in fertilization and groundwater use and more than doubled mechanized and irrigated areas. We highlight regions with high GWP and low SI, such as South Asia, and project further threefold increases in agriculture GWP by 2100 compared with 2020 (3.3 ± 0.73 PgCO2e) driven by declined use efficiency of the inputs. Green energy and climate-smart agriculture techniques can reduce the projected GWP in 2100 to 2.3 PgCO2e and increase the SI fourfold. The authors provide a global, cradle-to-gate quantification of the changes in the global warming potential and sustainability index of conventional agriculture from 1961 to the 2020s. They show an eightfold global warming potential increase and threefold decrease in sustainability index, largely due to tillage, fertilizer use and irrigation.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 1","pages":"110-117"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-04DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02143-7
Stefano Menegat
An in-depth examination of the factors driving rising greenhouse gas emissions in the production of wheat, maize and rice uncovers trends that conflict with the objective of reducing emissions while simultaneously boosting production.
{"title":"The geography of conventional agriculture’s unsustainability","authors":"Stefano Menegat","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02143-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02143-7","url":null,"abstract":"An in-depth examination of the factors driving rising greenhouse gas emissions in the production of wheat, maize and rice uncovers trends that conflict with the objective of reducing emissions while simultaneously boosting production.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 1","pages":"20-21"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142574497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02169-x
Climate change is exacerbating the severity of drought for life on land, especially for drying-sensitive species such as anurans (frogs and toads). Evaporative water loss rates for anurans are expected to double in areas with increased aridity. Increased drought severity combined with climate warming will likely reduce activity time for anurans owing to physiological limits.
{"title":"Increased environmental drying risk for anurans globally under projected climate change","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02169-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02169-x","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is exacerbating the severity of drought for life on land, especially for drying-sensitive species such as anurans (frogs and toads). Evaporative water loss rates for anurans are expected to double in areas with increased aridity. Increased drought severity combined with climate warming will likely reduce activity time for anurans owing to physiological limits.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1234-1235"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142520173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02177-x
Philippe Choler, Arthur Bayle, Noémie Fort, Simon Gascoin
Declining seasonal snow cover duration leads to changing conditions for plant recruitment and growth in temperate mountains. Yet capturing the intricacy of snow cover and vegetation dynamics at multidecadal scale in complex terrains poses a great challenge. Here we show that over the last four decades the greenness trend in European mountains increases with the annual date of the seasonal snow cover disappearance. By combining satellite data of high spatial resolution and downscaled climate re-analysis we show that the reduction in snow cover duration surpasses elevated temperatures in influencing heat accumulation during the growing season. This accumulation is a key driver of the pronounced greening observed in late snow-melting sites, particularly in sparsely vegetated, north-facing screes. Our results provide a comprehensive account of rapid vegetation changes in waning snowfields and highlight the pivotal role played by snow cover dynamics to unravel the complexity of greening within the temperate alpine zone. The authors use multidecadal, high-resolution data to investigate the spatial variability of vegetation greening in European mountains. They show that changes in snow cover duration play a more significant role than rising air temperatures alone in driving greening patterns.
{"title":"Waning snowfields have transformed into hotspots of greening within the alpine zone","authors":"Philippe Choler, Arthur Bayle, Noémie Fort, Simon Gascoin","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02177-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02177-x","url":null,"abstract":"Declining seasonal snow cover duration leads to changing conditions for plant recruitment and growth in temperate mountains. Yet capturing the intricacy of snow cover and vegetation dynamics at multidecadal scale in complex terrains poses a great challenge. Here we show that over the last four decades the greenness trend in European mountains increases with the annual date of the seasonal snow cover disappearance. By combining satellite data of high spatial resolution and downscaled climate re-analysis we show that the reduction in snow cover duration surpasses elevated temperatures in influencing heat accumulation during the growing season. This accumulation is a key driver of the pronounced greening observed in late snow-melting sites, particularly in sparsely vegetated, north-facing screes. Our results provide a comprehensive account of rapid vegetation changes in waning snowfields and highlight the pivotal role played by snow cover dynamics to unravel the complexity of greening within the temperate alpine zone. The authors use multidecadal, high-resolution data to investigate the spatial variability of vegetation greening in European mountains. They show that changes in snow cover duration play a more significant role than rising air temperatures alone in driving greening patterns.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 1","pages":"80-85"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142489218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02173-1
Lingxiao Yan, Danyang Cheng
Before the 12th Session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12), Nature Climate Change spoke to experts across the world to discuss how cities can and should cope with the intensifying climate crisis in the coming decades.
{"title":"Opportunities and challenges for urban climate governance","authors":"Lingxiao Yan, Danyang Cheng","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02173-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02173-1","url":null,"abstract":"Before the 12th Session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12), Nature Climate Change spoke to experts across the world to discuss how cities can and should cope with the intensifying climate crisis in the coming decades.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1112-1115"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142489216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02156-2
Jenna F. Tipaldo, Deborah Balk, Lori M. Hunter
The twenty-first century will witness historically unprecedented shares of older adult populations with an unfolding set of health-related challenges associated with climate change. Building on existing evidence that focuses on climate–ageing, ageing–health and health–climate connections, this Review summarizes ageing trends and the biophysical, socio-demographic, cultural and contextual pathways that shape the disproportionate impacts of climate-related environmental stress on older adults’ health. We propose a framework to conceptualize how these many factors intersect with climate stressors to impact the health of older adults. We also discuss knowledge gaps and suggest ways to improve social and health science research and data infrastructure. Older adults are more likely to have health conditions that increase their vulnerability to climate stressors. This Review introduces a framework to conceptualize how biophysical, socio-demographic, cultural and contextual factors intersect with climate stressors to impact the health of older adults.
{"title":"A framework for ageing and health vulnerabilities in a changing climate","authors":"Jenna F. Tipaldo, Deborah Balk, Lori M. Hunter","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02156-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02156-2","url":null,"abstract":"The twenty-first century will witness historically unprecedented shares of older adult populations with an unfolding set of health-related challenges associated with climate change. Building on existing evidence that focuses on climate–ageing, ageing–health and health–climate connections, this Review summarizes ageing trends and the biophysical, socio-demographic, cultural and contextual pathways that shape the disproportionate impacts of climate-related environmental stress on older adults’ health. We propose a framework to conceptualize how these many factors intersect with climate stressors to impact the health of older adults. We also discuss knowledge gaps and suggest ways to improve social and health science research and data infrastructure. Older adults are more likely to have health conditions that increase their vulnerability to climate stressors. This Review introduces a framework to conceptualize how biophysical, socio-demographic, cultural and contextual factors intersect with climate stressors to impact the health of older adults.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1125-1135"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142489219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02195-9
Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa
{"title":"Author Correction: Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change","authors":"Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02195-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02195-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1323-1323"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02195-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142490090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-23DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02172-2
Yin Long, Yoshikuni Yoshida, Yuya Kajikawa
Record-breaking temperatures pose critical risks to the global food supply, particularly endangering fresh produce. Urgent enhancements in food safety measures, including re-evaluating the impact of food production, improving cold chain logistics and adapting dietary practices, are required to ensure the resilience of food systems and public health.
{"title":"Extreme heat disproportionately exacerbates health issues by threatening fresh food supply","authors":"Yin Long, Yoshikuni Yoshida, Yuya Kajikawa","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02172-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02172-2","url":null,"abstract":"Record-breaking temperatures pose critical risks to the global food supply, particularly endangering fresh produce. Urgent enhancements in food safety measures, including re-evaluating the impact of food production, improving cold chain logistics and adapting dietary practices, are required to ensure the resilience of food systems and public health.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1109-1111"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142487083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1
Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa
Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here we used three well-tested fire–vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions to climate change. Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual fire PM2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) to 12,566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, such as South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas. The authors combine fire–vegetation models, a chemical transport model and a health risk model to link human mortality from fire emissions to climate change. They estimate that 12.8% of mortalities in 2010 were linked to climate change, with South America, Australia, Europe and boreal forests most impacted.
{"title":"Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change","authors":"Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here we used three well-tested fire–vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions to climate change. Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual fire PM2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) to 12,566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, such as South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas. The authors combine fire–vegetation models, a chemical transport model and a health risk model to link human mortality from fire emissions to climate change. They estimate that 12.8% of mortalities in 2010 were linked to climate change, with South America, Australia, Europe and boreal forests most impacted.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1193-1200"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142452000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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