Pub Date : 2026-02-02DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02528-2
Wenyu Li, Hui Lu, Jing M. Chen, Shilong Piao, Trevor F. Keenan, Guofang Miao, Qiang Liu, Zhou Zang, Nan Xu, Jane Liu, Qu Cheng, Han Wang, Rong Wang, Wenjie Ji, Peng Zhu, Congcong Li, Qinchuan Xin, Peng Gong
The leaf-onset date is sensitive to climate warming. It is widely reported that the temperature sensitivity of the leaf-onset date (ST) of deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) may decrease under dormancy-period warming. However, evidence of how boreal-DBF ST may generally change under dormancy-period warming is still lacking. Here, by analysing climate and satellite data, we find that, between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012, 74% of all 0.5° × 0.5° boreal-DBF-containing grid cells with a rise in boreal-DBF dormancy-period temperature exhibited an increase in boreal-DBF ST. We demonstrate that the observed general increase in boreal-DBF ST is largely attributable to a warming-related enhancement in dormancy-period chilling accumulation. Furthermore, we show that phenology models systematically underestimated the magnitude of the observed change in the mean boreal-DBF ST across all boreal-DBF-containing grid cells by a mean of 85%. This study has implications for improving phenology models and understanding the carbon cycle in boreal regions. The authors consider the changing sensitivity of the leaf-onset date to temperature (ST) for boreal deciduous broadleaf forests. ST increased between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012—potentially linked to enhanced chilling accumulation—but this increase is underestimated in phenology models.
{"title":"Enhanced effect of warming on the leaf-onset date of boreal deciduous broadleaf forest","authors":"Wenyu Li, Hui Lu, Jing M. Chen, Shilong Piao, Trevor F. Keenan, Guofang Miao, Qiang Liu, Zhou Zang, Nan Xu, Jane Liu, Qu Cheng, Han Wang, Rong Wang, Wenjie Ji, Peng Zhu, Congcong Li, Qinchuan Xin, Peng Gong","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02528-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02528-2","url":null,"abstract":"The leaf-onset date is sensitive to climate warming. It is widely reported that the temperature sensitivity of the leaf-onset date (ST) of deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) may decrease under dormancy-period warming. However, evidence of how boreal-DBF ST may generally change under dormancy-period warming is still lacking. Here, by analysing climate and satellite data, we find that, between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012, 74% of all 0.5° × 0.5° boreal-DBF-containing grid cells with a rise in boreal-DBF dormancy-period temperature exhibited an increase in boreal-DBF ST. We demonstrate that the observed general increase in boreal-DBF ST is largely attributable to a warming-related enhancement in dormancy-period chilling accumulation. Furthermore, we show that phenology models systematically underestimated the magnitude of the observed change in the mean boreal-DBF ST across all boreal-DBF-containing grid cells by a mean of 85%. This study has implications for improving phenology models and understanding the carbon cycle in boreal regions. The authors consider the changing sensitivity of the leaf-onset date to temperature (ST) for boreal deciduous broadleaf forests. ST increased between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012—potentially linked to enhanced chilling accumulation—but this increase is underestimated in phenology models.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"200-206"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146102130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5
Ruben Prütz, Joeri Rogelj, Gaurav Ganti, Jeff Price, Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Yazhen Wu, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Michael Wögerer, Tamás Krisztin, Petr Havlík, Florian Kraxner, Stefan Frank, Tomoko Hasegawa, Jonathan C. Doelman, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, Sabine Fuss
Pathways consistent with global climate objectives typically deploy billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from land-intensive methods such as forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Such large-scale deployment of land-intensive CDR may have negative consequences for biodiversity. Here we assess scenarios across five integrated assessment models and show that scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C allocate up to 13% of global areas of high biodiversity importance for land-intensive CDR. These overlaps are distributed unevenly, with higher shares in low- and middle-income countries. Understanding the potential conflicts between climate action and biodiversity conservation is crucial. An illustrative analysis shows that if current biodiversity hotspots were protected from land-use change, over half the land allocated for forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in the assessed scenarios would be unavailable unless synergies between climate and conservation goals are leveraged. Our analysis also indicates CDR-related biodiversity benefits due to avoided warming. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) plays an important role in decarbonization pathways to meet climate goals, but some methods are land-intensive. Multimodel analysis reveals conflicts between biodiversity and CDR that are distributed unevenly, and shows that synergies are crucial to meet climate and conservation goals.
{"title":"Biodiversity implications of land-intensive carbon dioxide removal","authors":"Ruben Prütz, Joeri Rogelj, Gaurav Ganti, Jeff Price, Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Yazhen Wu, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Michael Wögerer, Tamás Krisztin, Petr Havlík, Florian Kraxner, Stefan Frank, Tomoko Hasegawa, Jonathan C. Doelman, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, Sabine Fuss","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5","url":null,"abstract":"Pathways consistent with global climate objectives typically deploy billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from land-intensive methods such as forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Such large-scale deployment of land-intensive CDR may have negative consequences for biodiversity. Here we assess scenarios across five integrated assessment models and show that scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C allocate up to 13% of global areas of high biodiversity importance for land-intensive CDR. These overlaps are distributed unevenly, with higher shares in low- and middle-income countries. Understanding the potential conflicts between climate action and biodiversity conservation is crucial. An illustrative analysis shows that if current biodiversity hotspots were protected from land-use change, over half the land allocated for forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in the assessed scenarios would be unavailable unless synergies between climate and conservation goals are leveraged. Our analysis also indicates CDR-related biodiversity benefits due to avoided warming. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) plays an important role in decarbonization pathways to meet climate goals, but some methods are land-intensive. Multimodel analysis reveals conflicts between biodiversity and CDR that are distributed unevenly, and shows that synergies are crucial to meet climate and conservation goals.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"155-163"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02557-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146089498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02538-0
Kai Yang, Amelie Meyer, Phuc T. D. Le, Peter G. Strutton, Andrew M. Fischer
{"title":"Global trends in ocean fronts and impacts on the air–sea CO2 flux and chlorophyll concentrations","authors":"Kai Yang, Amelie Meyer, Phuc T. D. Le, Peter G. Strutton, Andrew M. Fischer","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02538-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02538-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146033383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02545-1
Cristina Cattaneo, Soheil Shayegh, Christoph Albert, Maria Alsina-Pujols, Hélène Benveniste, Marion Borderon, Bruno Conte, Christoph Deuster, Joseph-Simon Görlach, Toon Haer, Roman Hoffmann, Raya Muttarak, Michele Ronco, Jacob Schewe, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
{"title":"Broadening climate migration research across impacts, adaptation and mitigation","authors":"Cristina Cattaneo, Soheil Shayegh, Christoph Albert, Maria Alsina-Pujols, Hélène Benveniste, Marion Borderon, Bruno Conte, Christoph Deuster, Joseph-Simon Görlach, Toon Haer, Roman Hoffmann, Raya Muttarak, Michele Ronco, Jacob Schewe, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02545-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02545-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146033384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-15DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02539-z
Betsy Black, Xanthe J. Walker, Logan T. Berner, Jacqueline Dean, Scott J. Goetz, Winslow D. Hansen, Stefano Potter, Brendan M. Rogers, Anna C. Talucci, Michelle C. Mack
Climate change is driving more frequent and severe wildfires in northwestern North American boreal forests, initiating shifts from conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest dominance. The resulting forests sequester more carbon and are more resistant to burning. However, when deciduous forests do burn, patterns and drivers of carbon losses are important for predicting long-term carbon storage in boreal forest landscapes. Here we use a combination of field and statistical modelling approaches to quantify carbon combustion losses in burned deciduous boreal forests. On average, deciduous forests lose less than half as much carbon to wildfire combustion as conifer forests per unit burned area. Although deciduous stands are more sensitive to top–down fire weather drivers than conifer stands, carbon loss is always lower than the minimum for conifer stands. This, along with the fire-suppressive effects of deciduous stands, could slow the positive feedback between wildfire and climate in fire-prone boreal landscapes. More frequent fires in the North American boreal are causing shifts from conifer to deciduous forests. This study finds that when deciduous forests burn, their carbon losses are driven by weather, but are lower than in conifer forests, potentially dampening climate–fire feedbacks.
{"title":"Increased deciduous tree dominance reduces wildfire carbon losses in boreal forests","authors":"Betsy Black, Xanthe J. Walker, Logan T. Berner, Jacqueline Dean, Scott J. Goetz, Winslow D. Hansen, Stefano Potter, Brendan M. Rogers, Anna C. Talucci, Michelle C. Mack","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02539-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02539-z","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is driving more frequent and severe wildfires in northwestern North American boreal forests, initiating shifts from conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest dominance. The resulting forests sequester more carbon and are more resistant to burning. However, when deciduous forests do burn, patterns and drivers of carbon losses are important for predicting long-term carbon storage in boreal forest landscapes. Here we use a combination of field and statistical modelling approaches to quantify carbon combustion losses in burned deciduous boreal forests. On average, deciduous forests lose less than half as much carbon to wildfire combustion as conifer forests per unit burned area. Although deciduous stands are more sensitive to top–down fire weather drivers than conifer stands, carbon loss is always lower than the minimum for conifer stands. This, along with the fire-suppressive effects of deciduous stands, could slow the positive feedback between wildfire and climate in fire-prone boreal landscapes. More frequent fires in the North American boreal are causing shifts from conifer to deciduous forests. This study finds that when deciduous forests burn, their carbon losses are driven by weather, but are lower than in conifer forests, potentially dampening climate–fire feedbacks.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"187-192"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-15DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5
Bernardo A. Bastien-Olvera, Octavio Aburto-Oropeza, Luke M. Brander, William W. L. Cheung, Johannes Emmerling, Christopher M. Free, Francesco Granella, Massimo Tavoni, Jasper Verschuur, Katharine Ricke
Oceans provide essential benefits to people and the economy, underpinned by the extent and condition of marine ecosystems and infrastructure—or ‘blue’ capital. However, the impacts of climate change on blue capital have been largely overlooked in influential indicators such as the social cost of carbon (SCC). Here we integrate the latest ocean science and economics into a climate-economy model, capturing climate change impacts on corals, mangroves, seaports, fisheries and mariculture to estimate their welfare repercussions at a global scale. Conceptually, this ocean-based SCC (blue SCC) represents a component of the total SCC currently omitted in standard estimates. We estimate the 2020 blue SCC to be US$48 per tCO2 (US$38–70, 25th–75th percentile) with baseline discounting, representing an almost doubling of the SCC estimate from the same model without considering ocean-related impacts. The blue SCC increases to US$168 for a discount rate of 2%.
{"title":"Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon","authors":"Bernardo A. Bastien-Olvera, Octavio Aburto-Oropeza, Luke M. Brander, William W. L. Cheung, Johannes Emmerling, Christopher M. Free, Francesco Granella, Massimo Tavoni, Jasper Verschuur, Katharine Ricke","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5","url":null,"abstract":"Oceans provide essential benefits to people and the economy, underpinned by the extent and condition of marine ecosystems and infrastructure—or ‘blue’ capital. However, the impacts of climate change on blue capital have been largely overlooked in influential indicators such as the social cost of carbon (SCC). Here we integrate the latest ocean science and economics into a climate-economy model, capturing climate change impacts on corals, mangroves, seaports, fisheries and mariculture to estimate their welfare repercussions at a global scale. Conceptually, this ocean-based SCC (blue SCC) represents a component of the total SCC currently omitted in standard estimates. We estimate the 2020 blue SCC to be US$48 per tCO2 (US$38–70, 25th–75th percentile) with baseline discounting, representing an almost doubling of the SCC estimate from the same model without considering ocean-related impacts. The blue SCC increases to US$168 for a discount rate of 2%.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-14DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02510-y
Khin Nawarat, Johan Reyns, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Eamonn Mulholland, Kees van Ginkel, Luc Feyen, Roshanka Ranasinghe
European coastal regions host a dense transport network that supports various human activities and well-being. However, global warming is expected to increase coastal flooding risk, whose impact on existing and planned European transport systems remains unknown. Here we present the fully probabilistic assessment of coastal flood risk to Europe’s surface transport infrastructure at different levels of global warming. Under baseline conditions (1980–2020), we find 1,592 km of networks are affected annually, causing expected annual damage of up to €722 million. Roads are projected to be more affected than railways in all countries. Passenger and haulage transport within the low-elevation coastal zone are currently overwhelmingly road dependent, which signals potential for widespread disruptions unless transportation modes change. With 1.5 °C warming, the Europe-wide expected annual damage may reach €1,108 million, and with 4 °C, it is projected to be as high as €1,487 million. Adaptation expenditures will increase with every fraction of global warming in most countries. Transport networks in coastal zones are critical for human activities and are faced with increasing flooding risk. Using a detailed risk analysis in Europe, the authors show that the affected networks and expected annual damage will increase considerably with global warming.
{"title":"Coastal flood risk to European surface transport infrastructure at different global warming levels","authors":"Khin Nawarat, Johan Reyns, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Eamonn Mulholland, Kees van Ginkel, Luc Feyen, Roshanka Ranasinghe","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02510-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02510-y","url":null,"abstract":"European coastal regions host a dense transport network that supports various human activities and well-being. However, global warming is expected to increase coastal flooding risk, whose impact on existing and planned European transport systems remains unknown. Here we present the fully probabilistic assessment of coastal flood risk to Europe’s surface transport infrastructure at different levels of global warming. Under baseline conditions (1980–2020), we find 1,592 km of networks are affected annually, causing expected annual damage of up to €722 million. Roads are projected to be more affected than railways in all countries. Passenger and haulage transport within the low-elevation coastal zone are currently overwhelmingly road dependent, which signals potential for widespread disruptions unless transportation modes change. With 1.5 °C warming, the Europe-wide expected annual damage may reach €1,108 million, and with 4 °C, it is projected to be as high as €1,487 million. Adaptation expenditures will increase with every fraction of global warming in most countries. Transport networks in coastal zones are critical for human activities and are faced with increasing flooding risk. Using a detailed risk analysis in Europe, the authors show that the affected networks and expected annual damage will increase considerably with global warming.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"172-178"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02510-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-14DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02518-4
A Europe-wide probabilistic assessment of coastal flood risk to road and rail infrastructure, at different levels of global warming, shows that each increment of warming amplifies flood damage. Smaller economies face the greatest relative economic impacts, and several countries will need to increase and potentially realign transport investments towards climate resilience.
{"title":"Impacts of global warming on coastal flood risk to European surface transport infrastructure","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02518-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02518-4","url":null,"abstract":"A Europe-wide probabilistic assessment of coastal flood risk to road and rail infrastructure, at different levels of global warming, shows that each increment of warming amplifies flood damage. Smaller economies face the greatest relative economic impacts, and several countries will need to increase and potentially realign transport investments towards climate resilience.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"127-128"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146148360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-12DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02542-4
Qing Tian (, ), Feng Tian (, )
Topography in mountain areas redistributes the incoming solar radiation and determines water availability, creating microclimates and forming distinct habitat conditions within short distances. How this local topography modulates the impacts of climate change on the growth of vegetation on mountains at large scales remains unclear. Here we quantify the difference in vegetation density between polar-facing and equatorial-facing slopes (defined as aspect asymmetry) across the Northern Hemisphere and find a weakening trend of aspect asymmetry from 2003 to 2024. For regions that show higher vegetation density on the polar-facing slopes, the magnitude, area and seasonal duration of aspect asymmetry all decreased, implying a reduction in water control on vegetation growth. Further analyses show that the observed changes in vegetation aspect asymmetry are attributable to hydrothermal conditions, and are dominated by solar radiation and temperature in particular. Our findings highlight changes in an underexplored but important part of mountain ecosystems, with implications for ecological stability under climate change. The authors quantify long-term (2003–2024) changes in Northern Hemisphere mountain aspect asymmetry—the difference in vegetation density between polar-facing and equatorial-facing slopes. They show a weakening trend, linked to changing hydrothermal conditions.
{"title":"Weakening mountain vegetation aspect asymmetry due to altered energy conditions","authors":"Qing Tian \u0000 (, ), Feng Tian \u0000 (, )","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02542-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02542-4","url":null,"abstract":"Topography in mountain areas redistributes the incoming solar radiation and determines water availability, creating microclimates and forming distinct habitat conditions within short distances. How this local topography modulates the impacts of climate change on the growth of vegetation on mountains at large scales remains unclear. Here we quantify the difference in vegetation density between polar-facing and equatorial-facing slopes (defined as aspect asymmetry) across the Northern Hemisphere and find a weakening trend of aspect asymmetry from 2003 to 2024. For regions that show higher vegetation density on the polar-facing slopes, the magnitude, area and seasonal duration of aspect asymmetry all decreased, implying a reduction in water control on vegetation growth. Further analyses show that the observed changes in vegetation aspect asymmetry are attributable to hydrothermal conditions, and are dominated by solar radiation and temperature in particular. Our findings highlight changes in an underexplored but important part of mountain ecosystems, with implications for ecological stability under climate change. The authors quantify long-term (2003–2024) changes in Northern Hemisphere mountain aspect asymmetry—the difference in vegetation density between polar-facing and equatorial-facing slopes. They show a weakening trend, linked to changing hydrothermal conditions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"193-199"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145956338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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