Pub Date : 2026-03-10DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02589-x
Overshoot, the temporary crossing of climate targets before warming is reversed, has shifted from theoretical models to an urgent reality. Addressing this challenge requires effective strategies, global collaboration of different stakeholders and fair governance systems to manage the unprecedented risks.
{"title":"Living in the overshoot age","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02589-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02589-x","url":null,"abstract":"Overshoot, the temporary crossing of climate targets before warming is reversed, has shifted from theoretical models to an urgent reality. Addressing this challenge requires effective strategies, global collaboration of different stakeholders and fair governance systems to manage the unprecedented risks.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"227-227"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02589-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147383195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-04DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02576-2
Peter I. Macreadie, Brian Singleton, Micheli D. P. Costa, Alexandra Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Vanessa Johnston
Despite strong evidence that Indigenous stewardship sustains biodiversity and carbon stocks, carbon markets typically reward recovery from degradation rather than protection, often excluding Indigenous-managed lands. Rethinking additionality could align climate mitigation with care, equity and long-term ecosystem stewardship.
{"title":"Additionality requirements of carbon markets could penalize Indigenous stewardship","authors":"Peter I. Macreadie, Brian Singleton, Micheli D. P. Costa, Alexandra Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Vanessa Johnston","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02576-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02576-2","url":null,"abstract":"Despite strong evidence that Indigenous stewardship sustains biodiversity and carbon stocks, carbon markets typically reward recovery from degradation rather than protection, often excluding Indigenous-managed lands. Rethinking additionality could align climate mitigation with care, equity and long-term ecosystem stewardship.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"234-235"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147383199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-02DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02579-z
Haochi Wu, Jiahui Chen, Parth Vaishnav, Mingyang Sun, Michael T. Craig
Electric vehicles (EVs) are key to transportation decarbonization, yet their battery performance and longevity are vulnerable to temperature extremes, which will be affected by climate change. Battery technology advancements moderate this vulnerability, a dynamic rarely captured in technology assessments under future climates. Here we show that technological advancements have largely mitigated battery lifetime reductions driven by climate change. We combine bottom-up EV simulation and battery degradation models with high-resolution downscaled climate data, capturing warming and variability, for 300 global cities. Under 2 °C warming, old (2010–2018) batteries would experience lifetime declines of 8% (average) and 30% (maximum), whereas new batteries (2019–2023) would experience lifetime declines of 3% (average) and 10% (maximum). New batteries also mitigate regional inequities in battery lifetime reductions driven by climate change. Increasing cell temperature primarily drives lifetime declines. Our findings emphasize climate adaptation co-benefits from technological advancement and increasing thermal resiliency of emerging battery technologies.
{"title":"Technological improvements in EV batteries offset climate-induced durability challenges","authors":"Haochi Wu, Jiahui Chen, Parth Vaishnav, Mingyang Sun, Michael T. Craig","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02579-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02579-z","url":null,"abstract":"Electric vehicles (EVs) are key to transportation decarbonization, yet their battery performance and longevity are vulnerable to temperature extremes, which will be affected by climate change. Battery technology advancements moderate this vulnerability, a dynamic rarely captured in technology assessments under future climates. Here we show that technological advancements have largely mitigated battery lifetime reductions driven by climate change. We combine bottom-up EV simulation and battery degradation models with high-resolution downscaled climate data, capturing warming and variability, for 300 global cities. Under 2 °C warming, old (2010–2018) batteries would experience lifetime declines of 8% (average) and 30% (maximum), whereas new batteries (2019–2023) would experience lifetime declines of 3% (average) and 10% (maximum). New batteries also mitigate regional inequities in battery lifetime reductions driven by climate change. Increasing cell temperature primarily drives lifetime declines. Our findings emphasize climate adaptation co-benefits from technological advancement and increasing thermal resiliency of emerging battery technologies.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"69 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147346796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-27DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02563-7
Massimo Tavoni, Nico Bauer, Laurent Drouet, Shinichiro Fujimori, Sergey Paltsev, Anna Pirani, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren, Matthias Weitzel, Elmar Kriegler
Temporary climate overshoot—especially for 1.5 °C—is now unavoidable. In this Perspective, we show how overshoot emerged in mitigation pathways over the past three decades, from a modelling device for exploring stringent climate goals to an inevitable feature of scenarios. Depending on its extent, overshoot affects the pace and feasibility of emissions reductions, the distribution of socio-economic outcomes, and climate risks in time and space. We show that the magnitude and consequences of overshoot depend not only on biophysical characteristics and model assumptions but equally on scenario design and social and institutional factors. We outline priorities for a new generation of models and scenarios that integrate different climate sciences, supporting robust climate strategies in a world of overshoot. A temporary breach of the temperature target, or overshoot, is unavoidable. The authors review the history of how overshoot evolved in mitigation pathways, the magnitude and outcomes of potential physical and socio-economic impacts, and priorities for future model and scenario development.
{"title":"Implications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies","authors":"Massimo Tavoni, Nico Bauer, Laurent Drouet, Shinichiro Fujimori, Sergey Paltsev, Anna Pirani, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren, Matthias Weitzel, Elmar Kriegler","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02563-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02563-7","url":null,"abstract":"Temporary climate overshoot—especially for 1.5 °C—is now unavoidable. In this Perspective, we show how overshoot emerged in mitigation pathways over the past three decades, from a modelling device for exploring stringent climate goals to an inevitable feature of scenarios. Depending on its extent, overshoot affects the pace and feasibility of emissions reductions, the distribution of socio-economic outcomes, and climate risks in time and space. We show that the magnitude and consequences of overshoot depend not only on biophysical characteristics and model assumptions but equally on scenario design and social and institutional factors. We outline priorities for a new generation of models and scenarios that integrate different climate sciences, supporting robust climate strategies in a world of overshoot. A temporary breach of the temperature target, or overshoot, is unavoidable. The authors review the history of how overshoot evolved in mitigation pathways, the magnitude and outcomes of potential physical and socio-economic impacts, and priorities for future model and scenario development.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"261-272"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147383205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-27DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02568-2
Andrew O. Hoffman
Melting beneath floating Antarctic ice shelves is a major driver of ice-shelf mass loss and is projected to increase over the coming century. High-resolution maps of Antarctic basal-melt rates reveal stronger melt within narrow basal channels than previously recognized, making some ice shelves more vulnerable to additional melt channelization.
{"title":"Melt channelization stronger than previously recognized","authors":"Andrew O. Hoffman","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02568-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02568-2","url":null,"abstract":"Melting beneath floating Antarctic ice shelves is a major driver of ice-shelf mass loss and is projected to increase over the coming century. High-resolution maps of Antarctic basal-melt rates reveal stronger melt within narrow basal channels than previously recognized, making some ice shelves more vulnerable to additional melt channelization.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"247-248"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147383198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02575-3
Imke Hoppe, Felix Dörpmund, Christian Weigel, Alexander Loos, Matthias Garschagen, Thomas Kox, Stephanus Volke, Jens Ekkehart Appell, Irene Neverla
Television is a widely used medium for climate information worldwide, yet its role in public engagement remains underexplored. Here we examine both the representation of climate change on television and the audience engagement with it. We analysed 23,478 hours of programming across 20 German television channels over 61 days in 2022 and further assessed audience engagement with climate content through a representative survey (n = 1,445). In the beginning of the polycrisis context of autumn 2022—including war, inflation and energy insecurity—2.2% of broadcast hours addressed climate topics. Climate coverage was concentrated in news formats, reaching mostly to the climate-engaged majority, but remained largely invisible for climate-distant groups who prefer entertainment programmes. In addition, the results reveal unequal gender representation in television programmes and a perceived over-representation of politicians. Taken together, these findings suggest that strengthening inclusive storytelling, diversifying representation and innovating formats may enhance the reach and inclusivity of televised climate communication. Although widely used, television is underexplored in climate communication. Here analysis of German television programmes and audience perceptions shows that climate change coverage is concentrated in news formats and engages climate supporters, but misses climate-distant audiences drawn to entertainment.
{"title":"Climate change on television reaches the engaged but misses distant audiences","authors":"Imke Hoppe, Felix Dörpmund, Christian Weigel, Alexander Loos, Matthias Garschagen, Thomas Kox, Stephanus Volke, Jens Ekkehart Appell, Irene Neverla","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02575-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02575-3","url":null,"abstract":"Television is a widely used medium for climate information worldwide, yet its role in public engagement remains underexplored. Here we examine both the representation of climate change on television and the audience engagement with it. We analysed 23,478 hours of programming across 20 German television channels over 61 days in 2022 and further assessed audience engagement with climate content through a representative survey (n = 1,445). In the beginning of the polycrisis context of autumn 2022—including war, inflation and energy insecurity—2.2% of broadcast hours addressed climate topics. Climate coverage was concentrated in news formats, reaching mostly to the climate-engaged majority, but remained largely invisible for climate-distant groups who prefer entertainment programmes. In addition, the results reveal unequal gender representation in television programmes and a perceived over-representation of politicians. Taken together, these findings suggest that strengthening inclusive storytelling, diversifying representation and innovating formats may enhance the reach and inclusivity of televised climate communication. Although widely used, television is underexplored in climate communication. Here analysis of German television programmes and audience perceptions shows that climate change coverage is concentrated in news formats and engages climate supporters, but misses climate-distant audiences drawn to entertainment.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"288-296"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02575-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147279312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02573-5
Lisa Palmer
As global temperatures move beyond 1.5 °C, overshoot now defines the landscape ahead, sharpening legal claims, exposing economic risks and revealing how far politics still trail the pace of change.
{"title":"The hard road back from overshoot","authors":"Lisa Palmer","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02573-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02573-5","url":null,"abstract":"As global temperatures move beyond 1.5 °C, overshoot now defines the landscape ahead, sharpening legal claims, exposing economic risks and revealing how far politics still trail the pace of change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"240-243"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147279318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02570-8
Sunniva Davies-Rommetveit, Jenny Douch, Peter Gardner, Anna Aretha Sach, Laura Thomas-Walters, Nicole Tausch
As climate activism has expanded, governments have increasingly repressed disruptive but non-violent protests. Yet evidence remains mixed regarding whether repression inhibits or galvanizes activism. In this study, we examine how anticipated and experienced repression predict intentions to engage in normative (rule-conforming) and non-normative (rule-violating) collective climate action, over and above past activism and core psychological antecedents. Survey data from Extinction Rebellion UK mailing list subscribers (n = 1,375) showed that experienced repression positively predicted non-normative action intentions and showed a positive indirect predictive effect on non-normative action via reduced fear. Although anticipated repression was not directly associated with either action type, it had positive indirect predictive effects on both action types via anger/outrage and on non-normative action via contempt. Conversely, it also had a negative indirect predictive effect on non-normative action through heightened fear. These findings predominantly reflect a galvanizing effect of repression on disruptive collective climate action among committed activists. As climate activists escalate disruptive protest, authorities respond by intensifying restrictions on protest. This study examines how protest repression shapes climate activism and indicates distinct effects across collective action types and repression experience, with emotions as mediators.
{"title":"Emotional responses to state repression predict collective climate action intentions","authors":"Sunniva Davies-Rommetveit, Jenny Douch, Peter Gardner, Anna Aretha Sach, Laura Thomas-Walters, Nicole Tausch","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02570-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02570-8","url":null,"abstract":"As climate activism has expanded, governments have increasingly repressed disruptive but non-violent protests. Yet evidence remains mixed regarding whether repression inhibits or galvanizes activism. In this study, we examine how anticipated and experienced repression predict intentions to engage in normative (rule-conforming) and non-normative (rule-violating) collective climate action, over and above past activism and core psychological antecedents. Survey data from Extinction Rebellion UK mailing list subscribers (n = 1,375) showed that experienced repression positively predicted non-normative action intentions and showed a positive indirect predictive effect on non-normative action via reduced fear. Although anticipated repression was not directly associated with either action type, it had positive indirect predictive effects on both action types via anger/outrage and on non-normative action via contempt. Conversely, it also had a negative indirect predictive effect on non-normative action through heightened fear. These findings predominantly reflect a galvanizing effect of repression on disruptive collective climate action among committed activists. As climate activists escalate disruptive protest, authorities respond by intensifying restrictions on protest. This study examines how protest repression shapes climate activism and indicates distinct effects across collective action types and repression experience, with emotions as mediators.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 3","pages":"281-287"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02570-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147279316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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