Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02520-w
Yifei Quan, Jie-Sheng Tan-Soo
The global transition to low-carbon energy depends on energy transition minerals (ETMs). Yet, the extraction of these minerals often occurs in biodiverse and carbon-rich forests, potentially undermining their climate benefits. Here we provide global, causally identified estimates of deforestation and related GHG emissions attributable to ETM mining, combining nearly 3,000 projects with satellite-based forest-change data. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that ETM mining causes sustained forest loss—averaging ~20% within 10-km buffers over 15 years—comparable in magnitude to traditional minerals such as coal and gold. These losses are disproportionately concentrated in tropical forests with high climate mitigation potential. Incorporating deforestation-related emissions increases the mining-stage carbon footprint of ETMs by 63% on average and up to 98% for certain minerals. Our findings reveal mining-induced land-use change as a major but overlooked source of emissions in global energy transition. Energy transition minerals (ETM) are essential for decarbonization, yet extractions often occur in carbon-rich forests and lands of Indigenous peoples and local communities. Here the authors provide global analysis showing how ETM mining causes sustained forest loss and GHG emissions.
{"title":"Deforestation-induced emissions from mining energy transition minerals","authors":"Yifei Quan, Jie-Sheng Tan-Soo","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02520-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02520-w","url":null,"abstract":"The global transition to low-carbon energy depends on energy transition minerals (ETMs). Yet, the extraction of these minerals often occurs in biodiverse and carbon-rich forests, potentially undermining their climate benefits. Here we provide global, causally identified estimates of deforestation and related GHG emissions attributable to ETM mining, combining nearly 3,000 projects with satellite-based forest-change data. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that ETM mining causes sustained forest loss—averaging ~20% within 10-km buffers over 15 years—comparable in magnitude to traditional minerals such as coal and gold. These losses are disproportionately concentrated in tropical forests with high climate mitigation potential. Incorporating deforestation-related emissions increases the mining-stage carbon footprint of ETMs by 63% on average and up to 98% for certain minerals. Our findings reveal mining-induced land-use change as a major but overlooked source of emissions in global energy transition. Energy transition minerals (ETM) are essential for decarbonization, yet extractions often occur in carbon-rich forests and lands of Indigenous peoples and local communities. Here the authors provide global analysis showing how ETM mining causes sustained forest loss and GHG emissions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"52-57"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145814051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02512-w
Emily C. Geyman, Michael P. Lamb
Arctic rivers mobilize vast stocks of permafrost carbon as they migrate across floodplains. However, there is no consensus about whether Arctic rivers are responding to regional warming by speeding up or slowing down. Here we reconstruct migration rates over the period 1972–2020 for Arctic and sub-Arctic rivers spanning approximately 1,500 km of distance and a variety of channel sizes and floodplain environments. We find that rivers in warmer, discontinuous permafrost settings experienced a systematic acceleration over the past 50 years, whereas rivers in colder, continuous permafrost regions experienced a systematic slowdown. We identify two competing mechanisms responsible for this bifurcating behaviour: thaw of permafrost floodplains has driven faster migration, whereas a decline in the intensity of river-ice breakup has slowed migration. Using a mechanistic model, we find that the relative balance of these two controls is well described by air temperature, revealing a simple organizing framework for how Arctic rivers respond to warming. Whether rivers are speeding up or slowing down in a warming Arctic is unclear, but has implications for carbon cycling and infrastructure. This study finds divergent behaviour in migration rates for rivers in discontinuous versus continuous permafrost, driven by changes in permafrost thaw and river ice.
{"title":"Resolving the changing pace of Arctic rivers","authors":"Emily C. Geyman, Michael P. Lamb","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02512-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02512-w","url":null,"abstract":"Arctic rivers mobilize vast stocks of permafrost carbon as they migrate across floodplains. However, there is no consensus about whether Arctic rivers are responding to regional warming by speeding up or slowing down. Here we reconstruct migration rates over the period 1972–2020 for Arctic and sub-Arctic rivers spanning approximately 1,500 km of distance and a variety of channel sizes and floodplain environments. We find that rivers in warmer, discontinuous permafrost settings experienced a systematic acceleration over the past 50 years, whereas rivers in colder, continuous permafrost regions experienced a systematic slowdown. We identify two competing mechanisms responsible for this bifurcating behaviour: thaw of permafrost floodplains has driven faster migration, whereas a decline in the intensity of river-ice breakup has slowed migration. Using a mechanistic model, we find that the relative balance of these two controls is well described by air temperature, revealing a simple organizing framework for how Arctic rivers respond to warming. Whether rivers are speeding up or slowing down in a warming Arctic is unclear, but has implications for carbon cycling and infrastructure. This study finds divergent behaviour in migration rates for rivers in discontinuous versus continuous permafrost, driven by changes in permafrost thaw and river ice.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"77-86"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145814052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02525-5
Sebastian Pintea, Ava Acevedo, Juliet Horenziak, Anissa Kurani, Khushi Kohli, Stephanie Wang, Eugene T. Richardson, David Introcaso, Abrania Marrero
Climate change drives displacement and migration across the Americas, particularly exposing Latin American and Caribbean children to compounded health risks. We explore these health impacts, identify gaps in related US healthcare and health policy, and propose recommendations for how they can respond.
{"title":"Overlooked toll of climate change on migrant children in the Americas","authors":"Sebastian Pintea, Ava Acevedo, Juliet Horenziak, Anissa Kurani, Khushi Kohli, Stephanie Wang, Eugene T. Richardson, David Introcaso, Abrania Marrero","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02525-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02525-5","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change drives displacement and migration across the Americas, particularly exposing Latin American and Caribbean children to compounded health risks. We explore these health impacts, identify gaps in related US healthcare and health policy, and propose recommendations for how they can respond.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"109-111"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146148352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02531-7
Danyang Cheng
{"title":"Inequalities in resilience and preparedness","authors":"Danyang Cheng","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02531-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02531-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"14-14"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145916081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02529-1
Shuai Yang
{"title":"Rising lake and reservoir emissions","authors":"Shuai Yang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02529-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02529-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"14-14"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145916082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02508-6
Jordan Fields
Whether erosion is accelerating or decelerating along Arctic rivers has been unclear, but each trend has distinct implications for the vast amount of carbon stored in permanently frozen soils. Now, research demonstrates that warming air temperatures are driving divergent outcomes for Arctic rivers, causing some to erode their banks more rapidly while others slow down.
{"title":"Rivers accelerate and slow as temperatures rise","authors":"Jordan Fields","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02508-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02508-6","url":null,"abstract":"Whether erosion is accelerating or decelerating along Arctic rivers has been unclear, but each trend has distinct implications for the vast amount of carbon stored in permanently frozen soils. Now, research demonstrates that warming air temperatures are driving divergent outcomes for Arctic rivers, causing some to erode their banks more rapidly while others slow down.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"17-18"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145916080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02516-6
Hai-Anh H. Dang, Stephane Hallegatte, Minh Cong Nguyen, Trong-Anh Trinh
Higher temperatures are expected to impact globally on poverty and inequality, yet little cross-country analysis exists to quantify the effects. Here we analyse a panel dataset of subnational poverty in 130 countries covering the past decade and find that a 1 °C increase in temperature causes headcount poverty increases of 0.63–1.18 percentage points, using the daily poverty lines of US$2.15 (corresponding to 8.3% and 15.6% increases), and increases in the Gini inequality index of 1.3–1.9%. These poverty estimates equal a projected increase of global poor by 62.3–98.7 million people by 2030 compared with a scenario without climate change. Poorer countries—particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa—are more vulnerable, as are countries with higher agriculture shares in the economy. Estimates at the subnational level are larger than those using the country-level data, indicating that aggregated analysis may underestimate climate change risks. In addition to affecting general economic indicators, climate change could worsen poverty and inequality across and within countries. With a global subnational dataset, researchers confirm that temperature rise leads to increases in headcount poverty and the Gini index, with poorer countries being particularly vulnerable.
{"title":"Impacts of global warming on subnational poverty and inequality","authors":"Hai-Anh H. Dang, Stephane Hallegatte, Minh Cong Nguyen, Trong-Anh Trinh","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02516-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02516-6","url":null,"abstract":"Higher temperatures are expected to impact globally on poverty and inequality, yet little cross-country analysis exists to quantify the effects. Here we analyse a panel dataset of subnational poverty in 130 countries covering the past decade and find that a 1 °C increase in temperature causes headcount poverty increases of 0.63–1.18 percentage points, using the daily poverty lines of US$2.15 (corresponding to 8.3% and 15.6% increases), and increases in the Gini inequality index of 1.3–1.9%. These poverty estimates equal a projected increase of global poor by 62.3–98.7 million people by 2030 compared with a scenario without climate change. Poorer countries—particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa—are more vulnerable, as are countries with higher agriculture shares in the economy. Estimates at the subnational level are larger than those using the country-level data, indicating that aggregated analysis may underestimate climate change risks. In addition to affecting general economic indicators, climate change could worsen poverty and inequality across and within countries. With a global subnational dataset, researchers confirm that temperature rise leads to increases in headcount poverty and the Gini index, with poorer countries being particularly vulnerable.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"207-213"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02516-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145801594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02497-6
Huilin Luo, Wei Peng, Allen Fawcett, Jessica F. Green, Gokul Iyer, Jonas Meckling, Jonas Nahm, David G. Victor
Many political jurisdictions have embraced climate policy strategies that emphasize large subsidies to deploy green technologies (‘carrots’) with the anticipation that more punitive policies (‘sticks’) may follow. However, little is known about how such policy sequencing affects future policies, emission reductions and costs. Using a multisector model for the USA, we examine carrot-first policies which mimic the increasingly popular interest in industrial policy and offer a way to model these real-world policy choices in energy-system models. We find that a carrot-first policy strategy still requires later use of similar-sized sticks when compared with a policy strategy that begins with sticks and achieves the same levels of long-term decarbonization. Policy carrots alone do not dramatically reduce future emissions. Only with policy sticks are there unambiguous signals to substantially shrink the size of incumbent fossil fuel industries. Green subsidies (carrots) are now becoming a more politically acceptable climate policy option compared with corrective regulations (sticks). However, researcher show that carrots without quick and appropriate sticks will not be sufficient to reach the deep decarbonization goal in the long run.
{"title":"Modelling the impacts of policy sequencing on energy decarbonization","authors":"Huilin Luo, Wei Peng, Allen Fawcett, Jessica F. Green, Gokul Iyer, Jonas Meckling, Jonas Nahm, David G. Victor","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02497-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02497-6","url":null,"abstract":"Many political jurisdictions have embraced climate policy strategies that emphasize large subsidies to deploy green technologies (‘carrots’) with the anticipation that more punitive policies (‘sticks’) may follow. However, little is known about how such policy sequencing affects future policies, emission reductions and costs. Using a multisector model for the USA, we examine carrot-first policies which mimic the increasingly popular interest in industrial policy and offer a way to model these real-world policy choices in energy-system models. We find that a carrot-first policy strategy still requires later use of similar-sized sticks when compared with a policy strategy that begins with sticks and achieves the same levels of long-term decarbonization. Policy carrots alone do not dramatically reduce future emissions. Only with policy sticks are there unambiguous signals to substantially shrink the size of incumbent fossil fuel industries. Green subsidies (carrots) are now becoming a more politically acceptable climate policy option compared with corrective regulations (sticks). However, researcher show that carrots without quick and appropriate sticks will not be sufficient to reach the deep decarbonization goal in the long run.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"43-51"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145801596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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