Pub Date : 2025-01-06DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02204-x
Jiawei Liu, Colin Kyle, Jiali Wang, Rao Kotamarthi, William Koval, Vanja Dukic, Greg Dwyer
The effects of climate change on forest-defoliating insects are poorly understood, but could severely reduce forest productivity, biodiversity and timber production. For decades following its introduction in 1869, the spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) severely defoliated North American forests, but the introduction of the fungal pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga in 1989 suppressed spongy moth defoliation for 27 years. E. maimaiga, however, needs cool, moist conditions, whereas climate change is bringing hot, dry conditions to the range of the insect. Here we use an empirically verified eco-climate model to project that climate change will sharply reduce E. maimaiga infection rates, thereby increasing spongy moth defoliation. Recent rebounds in defoliation are consistent with our projections. Our work demonstrates that the effects of climate change on species interactions can have important consequences for natural ecosystems. The authors constructed an eco-climate model to project climate change impacts on populations of the spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) and its pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga. They show that climate change will sharply reduce E. maimaiga infection rates and subsequently increase spongy moth defoliation.
{"title":"Climate change drives reduced biocontrol of the invasive spongy moth","authors":"Jiawei Liu, Colin Kyle, Jiali Wang, Rao Kotamarthi, William Koval, Vanja Dukic, Greg Dwyer","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02204-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02204-x","url":null,"abstract":"The effects of climate change on forest-defoliating insects are poorly understood, but could severely reduce forest productivity, biodiversity and timber production. For decades following its introduction in 1869, the spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) severely defoliated North American forests, but the introduction of the fungal pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga in 1989 suppressed spongy moth defoliation for 27 years. E. maimaiga, however, needs cool, moist conditions, whereas climate change is bringing hot, dry conditions to the range of the insect. Here we use an empirically verified eco-climate model to project that climate change will sharply reduce E. maimaiga infection rates, thereby increasing spongy moth defoliation. Recent rebounds in defoliation are consistent with our projections. Our work demonstrates that the effects of climate change on species interactions can have important consequences for natural ecosystems. The authors constructed an eco-climate model to project climate change impacts on populations of the spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) and its pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga. They show that climate change will sharply reduce E. maimaiga infection rates and subsequently increase spongy moth defoliation.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"210-217"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142929657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-06DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02221-w
Aida Cuni-Sanchez, Abreham B. Aneseyee, Ghislain K. R. Baderha, Rodrigue Batumike, Robert Bitariho, Gerard Imani, Nisha Jha, Kaiza R. Kaganzi, Beth A. Kaplin, Julia A. Klein, Ana Leite, Robert A. Marchant, Emanuel H. Martin, Fatuma Mcharazo, Ben Mwangi, Alain S. K. Ngute, Jacques Nkengurutse, Aline Nkurunziza, Lydia Olaka, Teshome Soromessa, Romeo O. K. Tchoffo, Jessica P. R. Thorn, Isaac Twinomuhangi, Martin J. P. Sullivan, Noelia Zafra-Calvo
Mountain regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Yet, little is known about local adaptation responses in African mountain regions, especially if these are incremental or transformational. First, using household questionnaires, we interviewed 1,500 farmers across ten African mountain regions to investigate perceived climate change impacts and adaptation responses. Second, through a reflective process involving all co-authors, we identified: (1) main constraints and opportunities for adaptation, and (2) if adaptation was incremental or transformational. Questionnaire data show that farmers in all sites perceive multiple impacts, and that they mostly respond by intensifying farming practices and using off-farm labour. We established that, while several constraints were shared across sites, others were context specific; and that adaptation was mostly incremental, but that certain attributes (for example, social capital) made three sites in East Africa slightly more transformational. Climate change is impacting mountain regions and the agricultural livelihood of residents, and will continue to do so. In this study, the authors survey farmers in ten African mountain regions to understand their perceptions of climate change impacts and identify adaptation opportunities and constraints.
{"title":"Perceived climate change impacts and adaptation responses in ten African mountain regions","authors":"Aida Cuni-Sanchez, Abreham B. Aneseyee, Ghislain K. R. Baderha, Rodrigue Batumike, Robert Bitariho, Gerard Imani, Nisha Jha, Kaiza R. Kaganzi, Beth A. Kaplin, Julia A. Klein, Ana Leite, Robert A. Marchant, Emanuel H. Martin, Fatuma Mcharazo, Ben Mwangi, Alain S. K. Ngute, Jacques Nkengurutse, Aline Nkurunziza, Lydia Olaka, Teshome Soromessa, Romeo O. K. Tchoffo, Jessica P. R. Thorn, Isaac Twinomuhangi, Martin J. P. Sullivan, Noelia Zafra-Calvo","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02221-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02221-w","url":null,"abstract":"Mountain regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Yet, little is known about local adaptation responses in African mountain regions, especially if these are incremental or transformational. First, using household questionnaires, we interviewed 1,500 farmers across ten African mountain regions to investigate perceived climate change impacts and adaptation responses. Second, through a reflective process involving all co-authors, we identified: (1) main constraints and opportunities for adaptation, and (2) if adaptation was incremental or transformational. Questionnaire data show that farmers in all sites perceive multiple impacts, and that they mostly respond by intensifying farming practices and using off-farm labour. We established that, while several constraints were shared across sites, others were context specific; and that adaptation was mostly incremental, but that certain attributes (for example, social capital) made three sites in East Africa slightly more transformational. Climate change is impacting mountain regions and the agricultural livelihood of residents, and will continue to do so. In this study, the authors survey farmers in ten African mountain regions to understand their perceptions of climate change impacts and identify adaptation opportunities and constraints.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"153-161"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02221-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142929664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-06DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02205-w
Jinmei Wang, Hao Hua, Jing Guo, Xu Huang, Xin Zhang, Yuchuan Yang, Danying Wang, Xiali Guo, Rui Zhang, Nicholas G. Smith, Sergio Rossi, Josep Peñuelas, Philippe Ciais, Chaoyang Wu, Lei Chen
Under climate warming, earlier spring phenology has heightened the risk of late spring frost (LSF) damage. However, the intricate interplay among LSF, spring phenology and photosynthetic carbon uptake remains poorly understood. Using 286,000 ground phenological records involving 870 tree species and remote-sensing data across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that LSF occurrence in a given year reduces photosynthetic productivity by 13.6%, resulting in a delay in spring phenology by ~7.0 days in the subsequent year. Our experimental evidence, along with simulations using modified process-based phenology models, further supports this finding. This frost-induced delay in spring phenology subsequently leads to a decrease in photosynthetic productivity during the next year following an LSF event. Therefore, it is essential to integrate this frost-induced delay in spring phenology into current Earth system models to ensure accurate predictions of the impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial carbon cycling under future climate change. The authors use ground-based records and remote-sensing data to show that late spring frost delays the timing of spring leaf-out in the subsequent year by reducing photosynthetic productivity. Integrating late spring frost into models can increase the accuracy of predictions of spring timings and carbon cycling.
{"title":"Late spring frost delays tree spring phenology by reducing photosynthetic productivity","authors":"Jinmei Wang, Hao Hua, Jing Guo, Xu Huang, Xin Zhang, Yuchuan Yang, Danying Wang, Xiali Guo, Rui Zhang, Nicholas G. Smith, Sergio Rossi, Josep Peñuelas, Philippe Ciais, Chaoyang Wu, Lei Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02205-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02205-w","url":null,"abstract":"Under climate warming, earlier spring phenology has heightened the risk of late spring frost (LSF) damage. However, the intricate interplay among LSF, spring phenology and photosynthetic carbon uptake remains poorly understood. Using 286,000 ground phenological records involving 870 tree species and remote-sensing data across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that LSF occurrence in a given year reduces photosynthetic productivity by 13.6%, resulting in a delay in spring phenology by ~7.0 days in the subsequent year. Our experimental evidence, along with simulations using modified process-based phenology models, further supports this finding. This frost-induced delay in spring phenology subsequently leads to a decrease in photosynthetic productivity during the next year following an LSF event. Therefore, it is essential to integrate this frost-induced delay in spring phenology into current Earth system models to ensure accurate predictions of the impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial carbon cycling under future climate change. The authors use ground-based records and remote-sensing data to show that late spring frost delays the timing of spring leaf-out in the subsequent year by reducing photosynthetic productivity. Integrating late spring frost into models can increase the accuracy of predictions of spring timings and carbon cycling.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"201-209"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142929665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Publisher Correction: Brazil’s coastline under attack","authors":"Marcus V. Cianciaruso","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02243-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02243-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Correction to: <i>Nature Climate Change</i> https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02110-2, published online 19 August 2024.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142929663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-06DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02224-7
Ruijian Gou, Klara K. E. Wolf, Clara J. M. Hoppe, Lixin Wu, Gerrit Lohmann
Marine heatwaves (MHWs), defined as extreme ocean warming episodes, have strengthened over the past decades. High-resolution climate models improve understanding of MHWs under global warming, but such events in the future Arctic are currently overlooked. In a high-resolution climate model, we find Arctic MHWs intensify on orders of magnitude during the warming twenty-first century, following sea ice retreat. However, with little sea ice coverage, strong interannual variability emerges, which could surpass the amplitude of former intensification. Furthermore, the enhancement of MHWs correlates with an order of magnitude increase in the rate of change in the temperature anomaly. Additionally, MHWs are found to be accompanied by stratification enhancement, which could surpass interannual variability of future stratification. Such extreme temperature fluctuations combined with stratification enhancement suggest major challenges for Arctic ecosystems, and may negatively impact food webs through direct physiological temperature effects, as well as indirectly through nutrient supply and taxonomic shifts. Arctic warming will decrease sea ice cover and increase the possibility of intensified marine heatwaves. Using a high-resolution model, the authors show that this intensification, combined with strengthened short-term temperature variability and enhanced stratification, could threaten the ecosystem.
{"title":"The changing nature of future Arctic marine heatwaves and its potential impacts on the ecosystem","authors":"Ruijian Gou, Klara K. E. Wolf, Clara J. M. Hoppe, Lixin Wu, Gerrit Lohmann","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02224-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02224-7","url":null,"abstract":"Marine heatwaves (MHWs), defined as extreme ocean warming episodes, have strengthened over the past decades. High-resolution climate models improve understanding of MHWs under global warming, but such events in the future Arctic are currently overlooked. In a high-resolution climate model, we find Arctic MHWs intensify on orders of magnitude during the warming twenty-first century, following sea ice retreat. However, with little sea ice coverage, strong interannual variability emerges, which could surpass the amplitude of former intensification. Furthermore, the enhancement of MHWs correlates with an order of magnitude increase in the rate of change in the temperature anomaly. Additionally, MHWs are found to be accompanied by stratification enhancement, which could surpass interannual variability of future stratification. Such extreme temperature fluctuations combined with stratification enhancement suggest major challenges for Arctic ecosystems, and may negatively impact food webs through direct physiological temperature effects, as well as indirectly through nutrient supply and taxonomic shifts. Arctic warming will decrease sea ice cover and increase the possibility of intensified marine heatwaves. Using a high-resolution model, the authors show that this intensification, combined with strengthened short-term temperature variability and enhanced stratification, could threaten the ecosystem.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"162-170"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02224-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142929668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02194-w
Chahan M. Kropf, Lisa Vaterlaus, David N. Bresch, Loïc Pellissier
Coastal ecosystems provide a range of services including erosion prevention, clean water provision and carbon sequestration. With climate change, the rapid change in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones may alter the composition of the ecosystems themselves potentially degrading the services they provide. Here we classify global ecoregions into dependent, resilient and vulnerable and show that a combined 9.4% of the surface of all terrestrial ecosystems is susceptible to transformation due to cyclone pattern changes between 1980–2017 and 2015–2050 under climate scenario SSP5-8.5 using the STORM model. Even for the most resilient ecosystems already experiencing winds >60 m s−1 regularly, the average interval between two storms is projected to decrease from 19 to 12 years which is potentially close to their recovery time. Our study advocates for a shift in the consideration of the tropical cyclone impact from immediate damage to effects on long-term natural recovery cycles. The authors model the impact of changing tropical cyclone activity on coastal ecosystems. Under SSP5-8.5, by 2050 nearly 10% of terrestrial ecosystems will be at risk from changing tropical cyclone frequency, threatening the recovery potential of even the most resilient ecoregions.
{"title":"Tropical cyclone risk for global ecosystems in a changing climate","authors":"Chahan M. Kropf, Lisa Vaterlaus, David N. Bresch, Loïc Pellissier","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02194-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02194-w","url":null,"abstract":"Coastal ecosystems provide a range of services including erosion prevention, clean water provision and carbon sequestration. With climate change, the rapid change in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones may alter the composition of the ecosystems themselves potentially degrading the services they provide. Here we classify global ecoregions into dependent, resilient and vulnerable and show that a combined 9.4% of the surface of all terrestrial ecosystems is susceptible to transformation due to cyclone pattern changes between 1980–2017 and 2015–2050 under climate scenario SSP5-8.5 using the STORM model. Even for the most resilient ecosystems already experiencing winds >60 m s−1 regularly, the average interval between two storms is projected to decrease from 19 to 12 years which is potentially close to their recovery time. Our study advocates for a shift in the consideration of the tropical cyclone impact from immediate damage to effects on long-term natural recovery cycles. The authors model the impact of changing tropical cyclone activity on coastal ecosystems. Under SSP5-8.5, by 2050 nearly 10% of terrestrial ecosystems will be at risk from changing tropical cyclone frequency, threatening the recovery potential of even the most resilient ecoregions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 1","pages":"92-100"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02194-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142917117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02201-0
Paulo N. Bernardino, Wanda De Keersmaecker, Stéphanie Horion, Stefan Oehmcke, Fabian Gieseke, Rasmus Fensholt, Ruben Van De Kerchove, Stef Lhermitte, Christin Abel, Koenraad Van Meerbeek, Jan Verbesselt, Ben Somers
Climate change and human-induced land degradation threaten dryland ecosystems, vital to one-third of the global population and pivotal to inter-annual global carbon fluxes. Early warning systems are essential for guiding conservation, climate change mitigation and alleviating food insecurity in drylands. However, contemporary methods fail to provide large-scale early warnings effectively. Here we show that a machine learning-based approach can predict the probability of abrupt shifts in Sudano–Sahelian dryland vegetation functioning (75.1% accuracy; 76.6% precision) particularly where measures of resilience (temporal autocorrelation) are supplemented with proxies for vegetation and rainfall dynamics and other environmental factors. Regional-scale predictions for 2025 highlight a belt in the south of the study region with high probabilities of future shifts, largely linked to long-term rainfall trends. Our approach can provide valuable support for the conservation and sustainable use of dryland ecosystem services, particularly in the context of climate change projected drying trends. The authors develop a machine learning-based approach to derive abrupt shift probability in dryland ecosystem functioning in the Sudano–Sahel. They highlight areas with high probabilities of abrupt shifts in the near future (2025), which are linked to long-term rainfall trends.
{"title":"Predictability of abrupt shifts in dryland ecosystem functioning","authors":"Paulo N. Bernardino, Wanda De Keersmaecker, Stéphanie Horion, Stefan Oehmcke, Fabian Gieseke, Rasmus Fensholt, Ruben Van De Kerchove, Stef Lhermitte, Christin Abel, Koenraad Van Meerbeek, Jan Verbesselt, Ben Somers","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02201-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02201-0","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and human-induced land degradation threaten dryland ecosystems, vital to one-third of the global population and pivotal to inter-annual global carbon fluxes. Early warning systems are essential for guiding conservation, climate change mitigation and alleviating food insecurity in drylands. However, contemporary methods fail to provide large-scale early warnings effectively. Here we show that a machine learning-based approach can predict the probability of abrupt shifts in Sudano–Sahelian dryland vegetation functioning (75.1% accuracy; 76.6% precision) particularly where measures of resilience (temporal autocorrelation) are supplemented with proxies for vegetation and rainfall dynamics and other environmental factors. Regional-scale predictions for 2025 highlight a belt in the south of the study region with high probabilities of future shifts, largely linked to long-term rainfall trends. Our approach can provide valuable support for the conservation and sustainable use of dryland ecosystem services, particularly in the context of climate change projected drying trends. The authors develop a machine learning-based approach to derive abrupt shift probability in dryland ecosystem functioning in the Sudano–Sahel. They highlight areas with high probabilities of abrupt shifts in the near future (2025), which are linked to long-term rainfall trends.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 1","pages":"86-91"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142917118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02200-1
Matthew G. Burgess, Ashley Dancer
Climate change research and policy rely on emissions scenarios to project future warming and its impacts. Now, a study highlights both progress and challenges to keeping key socioeconomic scenario assumptions up to date for the IPCC.
{"title":"Keeping emissions scenarios current","authors":"Matthew G. Burgess, Ashley Dancer","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02200-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02200-1","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change research and policy rely on emissions scenarios to project future warming and its impacts. Now, a study highlights both progress and challenges to keeping key socioeconomic scenario assumptions up to date for the IPCC.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"131-132"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142917021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02198-6
D. J. van de Ven, S. Mittal, A. Nikas, G. Xexakis, A. Gambhir, L. Hermwille, P. Fragkos, W. Obergassel, M. Gonzalez-Eguino, F. Filippidou, I. Sognnaes, L. Clarke, G. P. Peters
Charting future emissions pathways is a central tenet of IPCC assessment reports (AR), yet it is unclear how underlying drivers (including around policy and technology) have influenced the evolution of emissions pathways. Here we compare scenarios in AR5 and AR6 and find that scenarios without specific climate policies enforced have shifted lower in each scenario generation, owing to falling low-carbon technology costs and reduced expectations for economic growth, reducing fossil-fuel shares in energy and industry. Mitigation pathways consistent with 1.5–2 °C have seen increasing electrification rates and higher shares of variable renewables in electricity in more recent scenario generations, implying reduced reliance on coal, nuclear, bioenergy and carbon capture and storage, reflecting changing costs. Despite the shrinking carbon budget due to insufficient recent climate action, mitigation costs have not increased given more optimistic low-carbon technology cost projections. Moving forward, scenario producers must continually recalibrate to keep abreast of technology, policy and societal developments to remain policy relevant. Scenarios for mitigation pathways lay the foundation for IPCC reporting and provide guidelines for future climate actions. This Analysis compares all the scenarios included since the Fifth Assessment Report and discusses how the portfolio has evolved over the past decade and the driving factors behind these changes.
{"title":"Energy and socioeconomic system transformation through a decade of IPCC-assessed scenarios","authors":"D. J. van de Ven, S. Mittal, A. Nikas, G. Xexakis, A. Gambhir, L. Hermwille, P. Fragkos, W. Obergassel, M. Gonzalez-Eguino, F. Filippidou, I. Sognnaes, L. Clarke, G. P. Peters","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02198-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02198-6","url":null,"abstract":"Charting future emissions pathways is a central tenet of IPCC assessment reports (AR), yet it is unclear how underlying drivers (including around policy and technology) have influenced the evolution of emissions pathways. Here we compare scenarios in AR5 and AR6 and find that scenarios without specific climate policies enforced have shifted lower in each scenario generation, owing to falling low-carbon technology costs and reduced expectations for economic growth, reducing fossil-fuel shares in energy and industry. Mitigation pathways consistent with 1.5–2 °C have seen increasing electrification rates and higher shares of variable renewables in electricity in more recent scenario generations, implying reduced reliance on coal, nuclear, bioenergy and carbon capture and storage, reflecting changing costs. Despite the shrinking carbon budget due to insufficient recent climate action, mitigation costs have not increased given more optimistic low-carbon technology cost projections. Moving forward, scenario producers must continually recalibrate to keep abreast of technology, policy and societal developments to remain policy relevant. Scenarios for mitigation pathways lay the foundation for IPCC reporting and provide guidelines for future climate actions. This Analysis compares all the scenarios included since the Fifth Assessment Report and discusses how the portfolio has evolved over the past decade and the driving factors behind these changes.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"218-226"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142917116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-02DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02191-z
Meng Liu, Josep Peñuelas, Anna T. Trugman, German Vargas G, Linqing Yang, William R. L. Anderegg
Terrestrial ecosystems are major carbon (C) pools, sequestering ~20% of anthropogenic C emissions. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate-sensitive disturbances (for example, drought and wildfire) threaten long-term C uptake. Although direct effects of disturbances are well-documented, indirect effects remain unknown. Here we quantify changes in the sensitivity of terrestrial gross primary production to water stress before and after severe droughts and fires. We find divergent changes across the globe, where dry regions have increased sensitivity, while wet regions have decreased sensitivity. Water availability, solar radiation, nutrient availability and biodiversity are the main drivers mediating these changes. Sensitivity takes ~4–5 years to recover after disturbances, but the increasing frequency of disturbances threatens this recovery. Our results reveal strong cross-system discrepancies in ecosystem responses to disturbances, highlighting the vulnerability of dryland ecosystems in future climates. Climate-sensitive disturbances, such as droughts and wildfires, impact terrestrial carbon uptake. Here the sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to disturbance is found to diverge between regions, with dryland ecosystems becoming particularly vulnerable under a warming climate.
{"title":"Diverging responses of terrestrial ecosystems to water stress after disturbances","authors":"Meng Liu, Josep Peñuelas, Anna T. Trugman, German Vargas G, Linqing Yang, William R. L. Anderegg","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02191-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02191-z","url":null,"abstract":"Terrestrial ecosystems are major carbon (C) pools, sequestering ~20% of anthropogenic C emissions. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate-sensitive disturbances (for example, drought and wildfire) threaten long-term C uptake. Although direct effects of disturbances are well-documented, indirect effects remain unknown. Here we quantify changes in the sensitivity of terrestrial gross primary production to water stress before and after severe droughts and fires. We find divergent changes across the globe, where dry regions have increased sensitivity, while wet regions have decreased sensitivity. Water availability, solar radiation, nutrient availability and biodiversity are the main drivers mediating these changes. Sensitivity takes ~4–5 years to recover after disturbances, but the increasing frequency of disturbances threatens this recovery. Our results reveal strong cross-system discrepancies in ecosystem responses to disturbances, highlighting the vulnerability of dryland ecosystems in future climates. Climate-sensitive disturbances, such as droughts and wildfires, impact terrestrial carbon uptake. Here the sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to disturbance is found to diverge between regions, with dryland ecosystems becoming particularly vulnerable under a warming climate.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 1","pages":"73-79"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142911857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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