Pub Date : 2026-01-09DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02534-4
Yanbin Xu, Wenjun Zhu, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Benjamin P. Horton
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate variability, yet its long-term effect on life expectancy remains unclear. Here we quantify how ENSO persistently impedes mortality improvement, leading to considerable life expectancy and economic losses across high-income Pacific Rim countries. We estimate life expectancy losses of 0.5 years (monetary equivalent loss of US$2.6 trillion) for the 1982–1983 El Niño and 0.4 years (US$4.7 trillion) for the 1997–1998 event. Climate projections under moderate emissions pathways suggest a cumulative decline of 2.8 years in life expectancy by 2100, amounting to US$35 trillion losses, with most of the monetary burden falling on the middle-aged population. These findings reveal that intensifying ENSO variability poses an underrecognized and enduring threat to human health and socio-economic stability, underscoring the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to safeguard population well-being. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation threatens human health, and its impacts are likely to intensify under climate change. This research examines how historical El Niño–Southern Oscillation events have caused life expectancy and economic losses across the Pacific Rim and projects future impacts and vulnerable groups.
{"title":"Enduring impacts of El Niño on life expectancy in past and future climates","authors":"Yanbin Xu, Wenjun Zhu, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Benjamin P. Horton","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02534-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02534-4","url":null,"abstract":"The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate variability, yet its long-term effect on life expectancy remains unclear. Here we quantify how ENSO persistently impedes mortality improvement, leading to considerable life expectancy and economic losses across high-income Pacific Rim countries. We estimate life expectancy losses of 0.5 years (monetary equivalent loss of US$2.6 trillion) for the 1982–1983 El Niño and 0.4 years (US$4.7 trillion) for the 1997–1998 event. Climate projections under moderate emissions pathways suggest a cumulative decline of 2.8 years in life expectancy by 2100, amounting to US$35 trillion losses, with most of the monetary burden falling on the middle-aged population. These findings reveal that intensifying ENSO variability poses an underrecognized and enduring threat to human health and socio-economic stability, underscoring the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to safeguard population well-being. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation threatens human health, and its impacts are likely to intensify under climate change. This research examines how historical El Niño–Southern Oscillation events have caused life expectancy and economic losses across the Pacific Rim and projects future impacts and vulnerable groups.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"148-154"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02534-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02526-4
Corinne Le Quéré, Charlie Wilson, Harriet Barton, Jim W. Hall, Asher Minns, Millie Prosser, Amy E. Russell, Mark G. L. Tebboth, Nigel Topping
Although climate action is undermined by political interests and institutional inertia, multiple safeguards are in place to prevent backsliding on progress so far, and positive feedbacks reinforce progress despite opposing forces. Key elements of climate action are irreversible and can be further strengthened by commitments, investments and positive narratives.
{"title":"Irreversibility in climate action","authors":"Corinne Le Quéré, Charlie Wilson, Harriet Barton, Jim W. Hall, Asher Minns, Millie Prosser, Amy E. Russell, Mark G. L. Tebboth, Nigel Topping","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02526-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02526-4","url":null,"abstract":"Although climate action is undermined by political interests and institutional inertia, multiple safeguards are in place to prevent backsliding on progress so far, and positive feedbacks reinforce progress despite opposing forces. Key elements of climate action are irreversible and can be further strengthened by commitments, investments and positive narratives.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"5-7"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145916079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02521-9
Neelima Vallangi
Advanced monsoon onset prediction with multi-week lead time via an artificial intelligence (AI) weather model helps smallholder farmers adapt to a changing climate.
通过人工智能（AI）天气模型进行提前数周的高级季风开始预测，帮助小农适应不断变化的气候。
{"title":"AI-driven weather forecasts for climate adaptation in India","authors":"Neelima Vallangi","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02521-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02521-9","url":null,"abstract":"Advanced monsoon onset prediction with multi-week lead time via an artificial intelligence (AI) weather model helps smallholder farmers adapt to a changing climate.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"102-102"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145916076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02546-0
Climate action clearly needs greater ambition in the face of increasing physical, biological and social impacts. However, it is important to acknowledge successes, including safeguards that protect action so far, and there are initiatives being implemented across scales that are effective.
{"title":"Successes in climate action","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02546-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02546-0","url":null,"abstract":"Climate action clearly needs greater ambition in the face of increasing physical, biological and social impacts. However, it is important to acknowledge successes, including safeguards that protect action so far, and there are initiatives being implemented across scales that are effective.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":"1-1"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02546-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145916078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-05DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02503-x
Joris Lammers, Felix Johannes Formanski
It is essential to understand the best way to frame a persuasive message aimed at increasing concern about climate change and support for pro-environmental action. Now a Registered Report presents a large-scale study that tests and compares the effectiveness of ten widely cited messaging strategies.
{"title":"Communicating the need for climate action","authors":"Joris Lammers, Felix Johannes Formanski","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02503-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02503-x","url":null,"abstract":"It is essential to understand the best way to frame a persuasive message aimed at increasing concern about climate change and support for pro-environmental action. Now a Registered Report presents a large-scale study that tests and compares the effectiveness of ten widely cited messaging strategies.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"123-124"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145902719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-05DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02536-2
Jan G. Voelkel, Ashwini Ashokkumar, Adina T. Abeles, Jarret T. Crawford, Kylie Fuller, Chrystal Redekopp, Renata Bongiorno, Troy H. Campbell, Ullrich K. H. Ecker, Matthew Feinberg, P. Sol Hart, Matthew J. Hornsey, John T. Jost, Aaron C. Kay, Anthony Leiserowitz, Stephan Lewandowsky, Edward Maibach, Erik C. Nisbet, Nick F. Pidgeon, Alexa Spence, Sander van der Linden, Christopher V. Wolsko, Jane K. Willenbring, Neil Malhotra, Robb Willer
It is important to understand how persuasive the most-cited climate change messaging strategies are. In five replication studies, we found limited evidence of persuasive effects of three highly cited strategies (N = 3,216). We then conducted a registered report megastudy (N = 13,544) testing the effects of the 10 most-cited climate change messaging strategies on Americans’ pro-environmental attitudes and behaviour. Six messages significantly affected multiple preregistered attitudes, with effects ranging from 1 to 4 percentage points. Persuasiveness varied little across party lines, inconsistent with theories predicting heterogeneous effects for targeted messages. No message increased pro-environmental donations, suggesting costly behaviours are difficult to influence with messaging alone. Inference of mechanisms driving effects was limited as the most impactful messages influenced multiple mediating variables. Taken together, these results identify several persuasive strategies, while also highlighting the limits of short-form messages for increasing Americans’ support for action to address climate change. The Stage 1 protocol for this Registered Report was accepted in principle on 7 August 2023. The protocol, as accepted by the journal, can be found at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25807429 . How to effectively communicate climate change to the public has long been studied and debated. Through a registered report megastudy, researchers tested the ten most-cited climate change messaging strategies published, finding that many had significant, but small, effects on climate change attitudes.
{"title":"A registered report megastudy on the persuasiveness of the most-cited climate messages","authors":"Jan G. Voelkel, Ashwini Ashokkumar, Adina T. Abeles, Jarret T. Crawford, Kylie Fuller, Chrystal Redekopp, Renata Bongiorno, Troy H. Campbell, Ullrich K. H. Ecker, Matthew Feinberg, P. Sol Hart, Matthew J. Hornsey, John T. Jost, Aaron C. Kay, Anthony Leiserowitz, Stephan Lewandowsky, Edward Maibach, Erik C. Nisbet, Nick F. Pidgeon, Alexa Spence, Sander van der Linden, Christopher V. Wolsko, Jane K. Willenbring, Neil Malhotra, Robb Willer","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02536-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02536-2","url":null,"abstract":"It is important to understand how persuasive the most-cited climate change messaging strategies are. In five replication studies, we found limited evidence of persuasive effects of three highly cited strategies (N = 3,216). We then conducted a registered report megastudy (N = 13,544) testing the effects of the 10 most-cited climate change messaging strategies on Americans’ pro-environmental attitudes and behaviour. Six messages significantly affected multiple preregistered attitudes, with effects ranging from 1 to 4 percentage points. Persuasiveness varied little across party lines, inconsistent with theories predicting heterogeneous effects for targeted messages. No message increased pro-environmental donations, suggesting costly behaviours are difficult to influence with messaging alone. Inference of mechanisms driving effects was limited as the most impactful messages influenced multiple mediating variables. Taken together, these results identify several persuasive strategies, while also highlighting the limits of short-form messages for increasing Americans’ support for action to address climate change. The Stage 1 protocol for this Registered Report was accepted in principle on 7 August 2023. The protocol, as accepted by the journal, can be found at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25807429 . How to effectively communicate climate change to the public has long been studied and debated. Through a registered report megastudy, researchers tested the ten most-cited climate change messaging strategies published, finding that many had significant, but small, effects on climate change attitudes.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"214-225"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145903426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Long-term effects of massive building material use in China, which experienced intense urbanization in the past two decades, remain insufficiently explored. Here, to fill these gaps, we developed a high-resolution time-series database of building material stocks from 2000 to 2019 and found that China held 15% of the global stock, which accounted for 19% of the country’s total carbon emissions. Although rapid urbanization generally increased per capita building material stock, the extent of this increase varied across cities and building types. We show that the growth rate has slowed since 2016; however, it remains challenging to simultaneously achieve both carbon-neutrality and urbanization goals. Future urbanization in China is projected to consume 12.5% of the nation’s total 1.5 °C carbon budget and 37.4% of its average annual budget allocation. Addressing these challenges requires targeted urban interventions, such as aligning low-carbon material production with projected regional demand and strategically planning materials recycling from future building demolitions. Reducing the embodied carbon emissions of building material stock is essential for mitigation. Using a high-resolution multiyear dataset in China, researchers show the historically massive contributions of these emissions during past decades of rapid urbanization and the potential risks for future climate goals.
{"title":"Building material stock drives embodied carbon emissions and risks future climate goals in China","authors":"Chaoqun Zhang, Lin Yang, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Jianping Guo, Ziyue Chen, Shaoying Li, Zhen Wang, Mei-po Kwan, Yuyu Zhou, Lu Lin, Liqiang Zhang, Manchun Li, Qiqi Zhu, Bailang Yu, Bin Chen, Xing Yan, Xiaoqi Wang, Bingbo Gao, Ying Liang, Jianqiang Hu, Yuheng Fu, Qiancheng Lv, Jing Yang, Yanzhao Wang, Qianqian Wang, Qiao Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02527-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02527-3","url":null,"abstract":"Long-term effects of massive building material use in China, which experienced intense urbanization in the past two decades, remain insufficiently explored. Here, to fill these gaps, we developed a high-resolution time-series database of building material stocks from 2000 to 2019 and found that China held 15% of the global stock, which accounted for 19% of the country’s total carbon emissions. Although rapid urbanization generally increased per capita building material stock, the extent of this increase varied across cities and building types. We show that the growth rate has slowed since 2016; however, it remains challenging to simultaneously achieve both carbon-neutrality and urbanization goals. Future urbanization in China is projected to consume 12.5% of the nation’s total 1.5 °C carbon budget and 37.4% of its average annual budget allocation. Addressing these challenges requires targeted urban interventions, such as aligning low-carbon material production with projected regional demand and strategically planning materials recycling from future building demolitions. Reducing the embodied carbon emissions of building material stock is essential for mitigation. Using a high-resolution multiyear dataset in China, researchers show the historically massive contributions of these emissions during past decades of rapid urbanization and the potential risks for future climate goals.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"164-171"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145894528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-02DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02535-3
Robinson Hordoir, Vahidreza Jahanmard, Pål Erik Isachsen, Ulrike Löptien, Heiner Dietze, Anne Britt Sandø, Vidar S. Lien
Climate change impinges on the Arctic Ocean, leading to sea-ice loss and potentially drastic cascading ecosystem changes. A recent process is atlantification, the growing influence of warm and salty waters from the Atlantic on the Arctic with increasing ocean volume transport from the Nordic Seas to the Barents Sea playing a key role. Despite its importance and a multitude of hypotheses that have been tested, this trend remains mainly unexplained. Here we explore nonlinear effects and successfully link the flow trend through the Barents Sea Opening to a frequency shift of atmospheric synoptic. We show that a part of the flow through Barents Sea Opening is driven by topographic Rossby waves, and that they have a very sensitive response to atmospheric frequency over the Nordic Seas. These findings highlight how anthropogenic changes to the atmosphere are altering ocean processes, with implications for sea-ice extent and ecosystems in the Arctic. The Atlantic Ocean is having an increasing influence on the Arctic but the drivers of this are unclear. By combining ocean modelling and deep learning methods, the authors show that the increased flow through the Barents Sea Opening is driven by spectral changes of atmospheric variability.
{"title":"Barents Sea atlantification driven by a shift in atmospheric synoptic timescale","authors":"Robinson Hordoir, Vahidreza Jahanmard, Pål Erik Isachsen, Ulrike Löptien, Heiner Dietze, Anne Britt Sandø, Vidar S. Lien","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02535-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02535-3","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change impinges on the Arctic Ocean, leading to sea-ice loss and potentially drastic cascading ecosystem changes. A recent process is atlantification, the growing influence of warm and salty waters from the Atlantic on the Arctic with increasing ocean volume transport from the Nordic Seas to the Barents Sea playing a key role. Despite its importance and a multitude of hypotheses that have been tested, this trend remains mainly unexplained. Here we explore nonlinear effects and successfully link the flow trend through the Barents Sea Opening to a frequency shift of atmospheric synoptic. We show that a part of the flow through Barents Sea Opening is driven by topographic Rossby waves, and that they have a very sensitive response to atmospheric frequency over the Nordic Seas. These findings highlight how anthropogenic changes to the atmosphere are altering ocean processes, with implications for sea-ice extent and ecosystems in the Arctic. The Atlantic Ocean is having an increasing influence on the Arctic but the drivers of this are unclear. By combining ocean modelling and deep learning methods, the authors show that the increased flow through the Barents Sea Opening is driven by spectral changes of atmospheric variability.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"179-186"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02535-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145894529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Transforming school environments into nature-based climate shelters not only promotes cooling and greening under extreme heat, but also fosters quality education, ecological restoration, empowerment and reconnection with nature, and provides children with healthier, safer, more playful, equitable and climate-proof spaces.
{"title":"Greening schools for climate-resilient, inclusive and liveable cities","authors":"Isabel Ruiz-Mallén, Francesc Baró, Hayat Bentouhami, Nathalie Blanc, Lidia Casas, Céline Clauzel, Raquel Colacios, Elsa Gallez, Amy Phillips, Paula Presser, Diana Reckien, Filka Sekulova","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02519-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02519-3","url":null,"abstract":"Transforming school environments into nature-based climate shelters not only promotes cooling and greening under extreme heat, but also fosters quality education, ecological restoration, empowerment and reconnection with nature, and provides children with healthier, safer, more playful, equitable and climate-proof spaces.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 2","pages":"112-114"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146148348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：