Pub Date : 2024-08-05DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02083-2
Hannah Druckenmiller, Yanjun (Penny) Liao, Sophie Pesek, Margaret Walls, Shan Zhang
Eliminating government infrastructure spending, public disaster insurance and post-disaster aid in high-risk coastal areas reduces development there and leads to lower flood damages and higher property values on nearby lands. The strategic withdrawal of development incentives could be used more broadly to reduce climate risks.
{"title":"Removing development incentives in risky areas reduces climate damages and yields co-benefits","authors":"Hannah Druckenmiller, Yanjun (Penny) Liao, Sophie Pesek, Margaret Walls, Shan Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02083-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02083-2","url":null,"abstract":"Eliminating government infrastructure spending, public disaster insurance and post-disaster aid in high-risk coastal areas reduces development there and leads to lower flood damages and higher property values on nearby lands. The strategic withdrawal of development incentives could be used more broadly to reduce climate risks.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 9","pages":"901-902"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02083-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141895467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-05DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02082-3
Hannah Druckenmiller, Yanjun (Penny) Liao, Sophie Pesek, Margaret Walls, Shan Zhang
As natural disasters grow in frequency and intensity with climate change, limiting the populations and properties in harm’s way will be key to adaptation. This study evaluates one approach to discouraging development in risky areas—eliminating public incentives for development, such as infrastructure investments, disaster assistance and federal flood insurance. Using machine learning and matching techniques, we examine the Coastal Barrier Resources System (CBRS), a set of lands where these federal incentives have been removed. We find that the policy leads to lower development densities inside designated areas, increases development in neighbouring areas, reduces flood damages and alters local demographics. Our results suggest that the CBRS generates substantial savings for the federal government by reducing flood claims in the National Flood Insurance Program, while increasing the property tax base in coastal counties. Adaptation requires limiting exposure to climate threats, and policies should focus on curbing development in risky areas. By examining the Coastal Barrier Resources Act, researchers demonstrate that removing financial incentives for development can lower climate risks and damages.
{"title":"Removing development incentives in risky areas promotes climate adaptation","authors":"Hannah Druckenmiller, Yanjun (Penny) Liao, Sophie Pesek, Margaret Walls, Shan Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02082-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02082-3","url":null,"abstract":"As natural disasters grow in frequency and intensity with climate change, limiting the populations and properties in harm’s way will be key to adaptation. This study evaluates one approach to discouraging development in risky areas—eliminating public incentives for development, such as infrastructure investments, disaster assistance and federal flood insurance. Using machine learning and matching techniques, we examine the Coastal Barrier Resources System (CBRS), a set of lands where these federal incentives have been removed. We find that the policy leads to lower development densities inside designated areas, increases development in neighbouring areas, reduces flood damages and alters local demographics. Our results suggest that the CBRS generates substantial savings for the federal government by reducing flood claims in the National Flood Insurance Program, while increasing the property tax base in coastal counties. Adaptation requires limiting exposure to climate threats, and policies should focus on curbing development in risky areas. By examining the Coastal Barrier Resources Act, researchers demonstrate that removing financial incentives for development can lower climate risks and damages.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 9","pages":"936-942"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02082-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141895470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-31DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02086-z
Jose A. Ordonez, Toon Vandyck, Kimon Keramidas, Rafael Garaffa, Matthias Weitzel
Recent climate diplomacy efforts have resulted in Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) with South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam, mobilizing financial support for ambitious decarbonization targets. Here, to assess JETPs’ alignment with global climate targets, we conduct a model-based assessment of JETPs’ energy and emissions targets. Results show greater alignment with a global 1.5 °C trajectory, indicating a promising route for international collaboration to keep Paris Agreement goals within reach. Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) are an important international initiative to address the urgent coal phase-out issue in emerging economies. Model-based assessment demonstrates JETPs for South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam provide a promising route for achieving the 1.5 °C target.
最近的气候外交努力促成了与南非、印度尼西亚和越南的 "公正能源转型伙伴关系"（JETPs），为雄心勃勃的去碳化目标调动了财政支持。在此，为了评估 JETPs 与全球气候目标的一致性，我们对 JETPs 的能源和排放目标进行了基于模型的评估。结果表明，它们与全球 1.5 ° C 的轨迹更加一致，这为开展国际合作以实现《巴黎协定》目标指明了一条大有可为的道路。
{"title":"Just Energy Transition Partnerships and the future of coal","authors":"Jose A. Ordonez, Toon Vandyck, Kimon Keramidas, Rafael Garaffa, Matthias Weitzel","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02086-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02086-z","url":null,"abstract":"Recent climate diplomacy efforts have resulted in Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) with South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam, mobilizing financial support for ambitious decarbonization targets. Here, to assess JETPs’ alignment with global climate targets, we conduct a model-based assessment of JETPs’ energy and emissions targets. Results show greater alignment with a global 1.5 °C trajectory, indicating a promising route for international collaboration to keep Paris Agreement goals within reach. Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) are an important international initiative to address the urgent coal phase-out issue in emerging economies. Model-based assessment demonstrates JETPs for South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam provide a promising route for achieving the 1.5 °C target.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 10","pages":"1026-1029"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02086-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141857656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-30DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02087-y
Paloma Díaz-Martínez, Fernando T. Maestre, Eduardo Moreno-Jiménez, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, David J. Eldridge, Hugo Saiz, Nicolas Gross, Yoann Le Bagousse-Pinguet, Beatriz Gozalo, Victoria Ochoa, Emilio Guirado, Miguel García-Gómez, Enrique Valencia, Sergio Asensio, Miguel Berdugo, Jaime Martínez-Valderrama, Betty J. Mendoza, Juan C. García-Gil, Claudio Zaccone, Marco Panettieri, Pablo García-Palacios, Wei Fan, Iria Benavente-Ferraces, Ana Rey, Nico Eisenhauer, Simone Cesarz, Mehdi Abedi, Rodrigo J. Ahumada, Julio M. Alcántara, Fateh Amghar, Valeria Aramayo, Antonio I. Arroyo, Khadijeh Bahalkeh, Farah Ben Salem, Niels Blaum, Bazartseren Boldgiv, Matthew A. Bowker, Donaldo Bran, Cristina Branquinho, Chongfeng Bu, Yonatan Cáceres, Rafaella Canessa, Andrea P. Castillo-Monroy, Ignacio Castro, Patricio Castro-Quezada, Roukaya Chibani, Abel A. Conceição, Courtney M. Currier, Anthony Darrouzet-Nardi, Balázs Deák, Christopher R. Dickman, David A. Donoso, Andrew J. Dougill, Jorge Durán, Hamid Ejtehadi, Carlos Espinosa, Alex Fajardo, Mohammad Farzam, Daniela Ferrante, Lauchlan H. Fraser, Juan J. Gaitán, Elizabeth Gusman Montalván, Rosa M. Hernández-Hernández, Andreas von Hessberg, Norbert Hölzel, Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald, Frederic M. Hughes, Oswaldo Jadán-Maza, Katja Geissler, Anke Jentsch, Mengchen Ju, Kudzai F. Kaseke, Liana Kindermann, Jessica E. Koopman, Peter C. Le Roux, Pierre Liancourt, Anja Linstädter, Jushan Liu, Michelle A. Louw, Gillian Maggs-Kölling, Thulani P. Makhalanyane, Oumarou Malam Issa, Eugene Marais, Pierre Margerie, Antonio J. Mazaneda, Mitchel P. McClaran, João Vitor S. Messeder, Juan P. Mora, Gerardo Moreno, Seth M. Munson, Alice Nunes, Gabriel Oliva, Gastón R. Oñatibia, Brooke Osborne, Guadalupe Peter, Yolanda Pueyo, R. Emiliano Quiroga, Sasha C. Reed, Victor M. Reyes, Alexandra Rodríguez, Jan C. Ruppert, Osvaldo Sala, Ayman Salah, Julius Sebei, Michael Sloan, Shijirbaatar Solongo, Ilan Stavi, Colton R. A. Stephens, Alberto L. Teixido, Andrew D. Thomas, Heather L. Throop, Katja Tielbörger, Samantha Travers, James Val, Orsolya Valko, Liesbeth van den Brink, Frederike Velbert, Wanyoike Wamiti, Deli Wang, Lixin Wang, Glenda M. Wardle, Laura Yahdjian, Eli Zaady, Juan M. Zeberio, Yuanming Zhang, Xiaobing Zhou, César Plaza
Mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) constitutes a major fraction of global soil carbon and is assumed less sensitive to climate than particulate organic carbon (POC) due to protection by minerals. Despite its importance for long-term carbon storage, the response of MAOC to changing climates in drylands, which cover more than 40% of the global land area, remains unexplored. Here we assess topsoil organic carbon fractions across global drylands using a standardized field survey in 326 plots from 25 countries and 6 continents. We find that soil biogeochemistry explained the majority of variation in both MAOC and POC. Both carbon fractions decreased with increases in mean annual temperature and reductions in precipitation, with MAOC responding similarly to POC. Therefore, our results suggest that ongoing climate warming and aridification may result in unforeseen carbon losses across global drylands, and that the protective role of minerals may not dampen these effects. Protection afforded by inorganic minerals is assumed to make mineral-associated organic carbon less susceptible to loss under climate change than particulate organic carbon. However, a global study of soil organic carbon from drylands suggests that this is not the case.
{"title":"Vulnerability of mineral-associated soil organic carbon to climate across global drylands","authors":"Paloma Díaz-Martínez, Fernando T. Maestre, Eduardo Moreno-Jiménez, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, David J. Eldridge, Hugo Saiz, Nicolas Gross, Yoann Le Bagousse-Pinguet, Beatriz Gozalo, Victoria Ochoa, Emilio Guirado, Miguel García-Gómez, Enrique Valencia, Sergio Asensio, Miguel Berdugo, Jaime Martínez-Valderrama, Betty J. Mendoza, Juan C. García-Gil, Claudio Zaccone, Marco Panettieri, Pablo García-Palacios, Wei Fan, Iria Benavente-Ferraces, Ana Rey, Nico Eisenhauer, Simone Cesarz, Mehdi Abedi, Rodrigo J. Ahumada, Julio M. Alcántara, Fateh Amghar, Valeria Aramayo, Antonio I. Arroyo, Khadijeh Bahalkeh, Farah Ben Salem, Niels Blaum, Bazartseren Boldgiv, Matthew A. Bowker, Donaldo Bran, Cristina Branquinho, Chongfeng Bu, Yonatan Cáceres, Rafaella Canessa, Andrea P. Castillo-Monroy, Ignacio Castro, Patricio Castro-Quezada, Roukaya Chibani, Abel A. Conceição, Courtney M. Currier, Anthony Darrouzet-Nardi, Balázs Deák, Christopher R. Dickman, David A. Donoso, Andrew J. Dougill, Jorge Durán, Hamid Ejtehadi, Carlos Espinosa, Alex Fajardo, Mohammad Farzam, Daniela Ferrante, Lauchlan H. Fraser, Juan J. Gaitán, Elizabeth Gusman Montalván, Rosa M. Hernández-Hernández, Andreas von Hessberg, Norbert Hölzel, Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald, Frederic M. Hughes, Oswaldo Jadán-Maza, Katja Geissler, Anke Jentsch, Mengchen Ju, Kudzai F. Kaseke, Liana Kindermann, Jessica E. Koopman, Peter C. Le Roux, Pierre Liancourt, Anja Linstädter, Jushan Liu, Michelle A. Louw, Gillian Maggs-Kölling, Thulani P. Makhalanyane, Oumarou Malam Issa, Eugene Marais, Pierre Margerie, Antonio J. Mazaneda, Mitchel P. McClaran, João Vitor S. Messeder, Juan P. Mora, Gerardo Moreno, Seth M. Munson, Alice Nunes, Gabriel Oliva, Gastón R. Oñatibia, Brooke Osborne, Guadalupe Peter, Yolanda Pueyo, R. Emiliano Quiroga, Sasha C. Reed, Victor M. Reyes, Alexandra Rodríguez, Jan C. Ruppert, Osvaldo Sala, Ayman Salah, Julius Sebei, Michael Sloan, Shijirbaatar Solongo, Ilan Stavi, Colton R. A. Stephens, Alberto L. Teixido, Andrew D. Thomas, Heather L. Throop, Katja Tielbörger, Samantha Travers, James Val, Orsolya Valko, Liesbeth van den Brink, Frederike Velbert, Wanyoike Wamiti, Deli Wang, Lixin Wang, Glenda M. Wardle, Laura Yahdjian, Eli Zaady, Juan M. Zeberio, Yuanming Zhang, Xiaobing Zhou, César Plaza","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02087-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02087-y","url":null,"abstract":"Mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) constitutes a major fraction of global soil carbon and is assumed less sensitive to climate than particulate organic carbon (POC) due to protection by minerals. Despite its importance for long-term carbon storage, the response of MAOC to changing climates in drylands, which cover more than 40% of the global land area, remains unexplored. Here we assess topsoil organic carbon fractions across global drylands using a standardized field survey in 326 plots from 25 countries and 6 continents. We find that soil biogeochemistry explained the majority of variation in both MAOC and POC. Both carbon fractions decreased with increases in mean annual temperature and reductions in precipitation, with MAOC responding similarly to POC. Therefore, our results suggest that ongoing climate warming and aridification may result in unforeseen carbon losses across global drylands, and that the protective role of minerals may not dampen these effects. Protection afforded by inorganic minerals is assumed to make mineral-associated organic carbon less susceptible to loss under climate change than particulate organic carbon. However, a global study of soil organic carbon from drylands suggests that this is not the case.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 9","pages":"976-982"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141794659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-30DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02078-z
Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Rosario Evans Pena, Monika Moir, Rhys P. D. Inward, Eduan Wilkinson, James Emmanuel San, Jenicca Poongavanan, Sumali Bajaj, Bernardo Gutierrez, Abhishek Dasgupta, Tulio de Oliveira, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Houriiyah Tegally, Prathyush Sambaturu
Health consequences arising from climate change are threatening to offset advances made to reduce the damage of infectious diseases, which vary by region and the resilience of the local health system. Here we discuss how climate change-related migrations and infectious disease burden are linked through various processes, such as the expansion of pathogens into non-endemic areas, overcrowding in new informal settlements, and the increased proximity of disease vectors and susceptible human populations. Countries that are predicted to have the highest burden are those that have made the least contribution to climate change. Further studies are needed to generate robust evidence on the potential consequences of climate change-related human movements and migration, as well as identify effective and bespoke short- and long-term interventions. Both extreme weather events and long-term gradual changes drive human migration, which could aggravate the burden of infectious diseases. This Perspective examines the complex interplay between climate change, migration and infectious diseases then advocates for context-specific adaptations.
{"title":"Impacts of climate change-related human migration on infectious diseases","authors":"Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Rosario Evans Pena, Monika Moir, Rhys P. D. Inward, Eduan Wilkinson, James Emmanuel San, Jenicca Poongavanan, Sumali Bajaj, Bernardo Gutierrez, Abhishek Dasgupta, Tulio de Oliveira, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Houriiyah Tegally, Prathyush Sambaturu","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02078-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02078-z","url":null,"abstract":"Health consequences arising from climate change are threatening to offset advances made to reduce the damage of infectious diseases, which vary by region and the resilience of the local health system. Here we discuss how climate change-related migrations and infectious disease burden are linked through various processes, such as the expansion of pathogens into non-endemic areas, overcrowding in new informal settlements, and the increased proximity of disease vectors and susceptible human populations. Countries that are predicted to have the highest burden are those that have made the least contribution to climate change. Further studies are needed to generate robust evidence on the potential consequences of climate change-related human movements and migration, as well as identify effective and bespoke short- and long-term interventions. Both extreme weather events and long-term gradual changes drive human migration, which could aggravate the burden of infectious diseases. This Perspective examines the complex interplay between climate change, migration and infectious diseases then advocates for context-specific adaptations.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 8","pages":"793-802"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141794660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-29DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02064-5
Michael M. Webster, Daniel E. Schindler
Reef-building corals are declining globally, putting important ecosystem services at risk. Here we discuss the potential risks and benefits of coral ecological replacement, in which new species are introduced to replace the functional roles of species that have declined or disappeared.
{"title":"Ecological replacement for reef-building corals","authors":"Michael M. Webster, Daniel E. Schindler","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02064-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02064-5","url":null,"abstract":"Reef-building corals are declining globally, putting important ecosystem services at risk. Here we discuss the potential risks and benefits of coral ecological replacement, in which new species are introduced to replace the functional roles of species that have declined or disappeared.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 8","pages":"776-778"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141794662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-29DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02063-6
Robert P. Streit, Tiffany H. Morrison, David R. Bellwood
Climate impacts are triggering a host of novel bio- and geoengineering interventions to save coral reefs. This Comment challenges heroic scientific assumptions and advocates for a more systemic, evidence-based approach to caring for coral reefs.
{"title":"Coral reefs deserve evidence-based management not heroic interference","authors":"Robert P. Streit, Tiffany H. Morrison, David R. Bellwood","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02063-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02063-6","url":null,"abstract":"Climate impacts are triggering a host of novel bio- and geoengineering interventions to save coral reefs. This Comment challenges heroic scientific assumptions and advocates for a more systemic, evidence-based approach to caring for coral reefs.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 8","pages":"773-775"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141794661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-29DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02079-y
Timothy Rice McClanahan
Coral reefs are at risk from ongoing climate change. We can best serve the reefs by invoking realistic scenarios, empiricism, artificial intelligence and falsification to self-correct the current scientific limits that hinder climate science predictions, communication and policies.
{"title":"Reconsidering and rescaling climate change predictions for coral reefs","authors":"Timothy Rice McClanahan","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02079-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02079-y","url":null,"abstract":"Coral reefs are at risk from ongoing climate change. We can best serve the reefs by invoking realistic scenarios, empiricism, artificial intelligence and falsification to self-correct the current scientific limits that hinder climate science predictions, communication and policies.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 8","pages":"779-781"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141794663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-26DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02076-1
Analysis of high-resolution climate models reveals a substantial reduction in global oceanic kinetic energy under global warming. This reduction of oceanic kinetic energy is mainly due to weakened mesoscale eddies in the deep ocean.
{"title":"Deep-ocean currents weaken in a warming climate","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02076-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02076-1","url":null,"abstract":"Analysis of high-resolution climate models reveals a substantial reduction in global oceanic kinetic energy under global warming. This reduction of oceanic kinetic energy is mainly due to weakened mesoscale eddies in the deep ocean.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 9","pages":"905-906"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141764366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-26DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02057-4
Craig R. See, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Marguerite Mauritz, Christina Biasi, Stef Bokhorst, Julia Boike, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, Sara June Murner (Connon), Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Craig A. Emmerton, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Mathias Göckede, Achim Grelle, Liam Heffernan, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Elyn Humphreys, Hiroki Iwata, Järvi Järveoja, Hideki Kobayashi, John Kochendorfer, Pasi Kolari, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Min Jung Kwon, Emma R. Lathrop, Efrén López-Blanco, Ivan Mammarella, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Yojiro Matsuura, Lutz Merbold, Gesa Meyer, Christina Minions, Mats B. Nilsson, Julia Nojeim, Steven F. Oberbauer, David Olefeldt, Sang-Jong Park, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Darcy Peter, Roman Petrov, Rafael Poyatos, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, William Quinton, Heidi Rodenhizer, Torsten Sachs, Kathleen Savage, Christopher Schulze, Sofie Sjögersten, Oliver Sonnentag, Vincent L. St. Louis, Margaret S. Torn, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Masahito Ueyama, Andrej Varlagin, Carolina Voigt, Jennifer D. Watts, Donatella Zona, Viacheslav I. Zyryanov, Edward A. G. Schuur
Tundra and boreal ecosystems encompass the northern circumpolar permafrost region and are experiencing rapid environmental change with important implications for the global carbon (C) budget. We analysed multi-decadal time series containing 302 annual estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) flux across 70 permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems, and 672 estimates of summer CO2 flux across 181 ecosystems. We find an increase in the annual CO2 sink across non-permafrost ecosystems but not permafrost ecosystems, despite similar increases in summer uptake. Thus, recent non-growing-season CO2 losses have substantially impacted the CO2 balance of permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, analysis of interannual variability reveals warmer summers amplify the C cycle (increase productivity and respiration) at putatively nitrogen-limited sites and at sites less reliant on summer precipitation for water use. Our findings suggest that water and nutrient availability will be important predictors of the C-cycle response of these ecosystems to future warming. The future of carbon dynamics in the northern high latitudes is uncertain yet represents an important potential feedback under climate change. This study uses a comprehensive observational dataset to show an increasing carbon sink in non-permafrost systems; in permafrost systems uptake was offset by loss.
{"title":"Decadal increases in carbon uptake offset by respiratory losses across northern permafrost ecosystems","authors":"Craig R. See, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Susan M. Natali, Brendan M. Rogers, Marguerite Mauritz, Christina Biasi, Stef Bokhorst, Julia Boike, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Gerardo Celis, Namyi Chae, Torben R. Christensen, Sara June Murner (Connon), Sigrid Dengel, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Craig A. Emmerton, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Mathias Göckede, Achim Grelle, Liam Heffernan, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Elyn Humphreys, Hiroki Iwata, Järvi Järveoja, Hideki Kobayashi, John Kochendorfer, Pasi Kolari, Ayumi Kotani, Lars Kutzbach, Min Jung Kwon, Emma R. Lathrop, Efrén López-Blanco, Ivan Mammarella, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Yojiro Matsuura, Lutz Merbold, Gesa Meyer, Christina Minions, Mats B. Nilsson, Julia Nojeim, Steven F. Oberbauer, David Olefeldt, Sang-Jong Park, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Darcy Peter, Roman Petrov, Rafael Poyatos, Anatoly S. Prokushkin, William Quinton, Heidi Rodenhizer, Torsten Sachs, Kathleen Savage, Christopher Schulze, Sofie Sjögersten, Oliver Sonnentag, Vincent L. St. Louis, Margaret S. Torn, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Masahito Ueyama, Andrej Varlagin, Carolina Voigt, Jennifer D. Watts, Donatella Zona, Viacheslav I. Zyryanov, Edward A. G. Schuur","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02057-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02057-4","url":null,"abstract":"Tundra and boreal ecosystems encompass the northern circumpolar permafrost region and are experiencing rapid environmental change with important implications for the global carbon (C) budget. We analysed multi-decadal time series containing 302 annual estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) flux across 70 permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems, and 672 estimates of summer CO2 flux across 181 ecosystems. We find an increase in the annual CO2 sink across non-permafrost ecosystems but not permafrost ecosystems, despite similar increases in summer uptake. Thus, recent non-growing-season CO2 losses have substantially impacted the CO2 balance of permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, analysis of interannual variability reveals warmer summers amplify the C cycle (increase productivity and respiration) at putatively nitrogen-limited sites and at sites less reliant on summer precipitation for water use. Our findings suggest that water and nutrient availability will be important predictors of the C-cycle response of these ecosystems to future warming. The future of carbon dynamics in the northern high latitudes is uncertain yet represents an important potential feedback under climate change. This study uses a comprehensive observational dataset to show an increasing carbon sink in non-permafrost systems; in permafrost systems uptake was offset by loss.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 8","pages":"853-862"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02057-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141764367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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