Pub Date : 2024-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w
Chantelle Burton, Seppe Lampe, Douglas I. Kelley, Wim Thiery, Stijn Hantson, Nikos Christidis, Lukas Gudmundsson, Matthew Forrest, Eleanor Burke, Jinfeng Chang, Huilin Huang, Akihiko Ito, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Gitta Lasslop, Wei Li, Lars Nieradzik, Fang Li, Yang Chen, James Randerson, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel
Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems. Complex interactions between drivers have hampered efforts to understand observed changes in fire behaviour worldwide. Here fire model ensembles and impact attribution show that climate change increasingly explains changes in global burned area.
全球许多地区的火灾行为正在发生变化。然而，火灾天气、燃料、土地利用、管理和点火之间的非线性相互作用阻碍了全球烧毁面积变化的正式归因。在这里，我们利用一组全球火灾模型证明，气候变化越来越多地解释了区域燃烧面积模式。模拟结果表明，2003-2019 年，气候变化使全球烧毁面积增加了 15.8%（95% 置信区间 [13.1-18.7]），并使全球烧毁面积超过平均水平的月份的概率增加了 22%（95% 置信区间 [18-26]）。相比之下，其他人类影响因素则使同期的焚烧面积减少了 19.1%（95% CI [21.9-15.8]）。此外，气候变化对全球烧毁面积的影响每年增加 0.22% (95% CI [0.22-0.24])，其中澳大利亚中部的增幅最大。我们的研究结果凸显了立即、大幅和持续减少温室气体排放以及景观和火灾管理策略对于稳定火灾对生命、生计和生态系统影响的重要性。
{"title":"Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change","authors":"Chantelle Burton, Seppe Lampe, Douglas I. Kelley, Wim Thiery, Stijn Hantson, Nikos Christidis, Lukas Gudmundsson, Matthew Forrest, Eleanor Burke, Jinfeng Chang, Huilin Huang, Akihiko Ito, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Gitta Lasslop, Wei Li, Lars Nieradzik, Fang Li, Yang Chen, James Randerson, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w","url":null,"abstract":"Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems. Complex interactions between drivers have hampered efforts to understand observed changes in fire behaviour worldwide. Here fire model ensembles and impact attribution show that climate change increasingly explains changes in global burned area.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1186-1192"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142452001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z
Nicholas C. Wu, Rafael Parelli Bovo, Urtzi Enriquez-Urzelai, Susana Clusella-Trullas, Michael R. Kearney, Carlos A. Navas, Jacinta D. Kong
Compared with the risks associated with climate warming and extremes, the risks of climate-induced drying to animal species remain understudied. This is particularly true for water-sensitive groups, such as anurans (frogs and toads), whose long-term survival must be considered in the context of both environmental changes and species sensitivity. Here, we mapped global areas where anurans will face increasing water limitations, analysed ecotype sensitivity to water loss and modelled behavioural activity impacts under future climate change scenarios. Predictions indicate that 6.6–33.6% of anuran habitats will become arid like by 2080–2100, with 15.4–36.1% exposed to worsening drought, under an intermediate- and high-emission scenario, respectively. Arid conditions are expected to double water loss rates, and combined drought and warming will double reductions in anuran activity compared with warming impacts alone by 2080–2100. These findings underscore the pervasive synergistic threat of warming and environmental drying to anurans. The authors consider the future risks of warming and drying to water-sensitive anuran species. They show that increased aridity of anuran habitats and drought exposure under climate change, combined with warming, can substantially reduce anuran activity.
{"title":"Global exposure risk of frogs to increasing environmental dryness","authors":"Nicholas C. Wu, Rafael Parelli Bovo, Urtzi Enriquez-Urzelai, Susana Clusella-Trullas, Michael R. Kearney, Carlos A. Navas, Jacinta D. Kong","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z","url":null,"abstract":"Compared with the risks associated with climate warming and extremes, the risks of climate-induced drying to animal species remain understudied. This is particularly true for water-sensitive groups, such as anurans (frogs and toads), whose long-term survival must be considered in the context of both environmental changes and species sensitivity. Here, we mapped global areas where anurans will face increasing water limitations, analysed ecotype sensitivity to water loss and modelled behavioural activity impacts under future climate change scenarios. Predictions indicate that 6.6–33.6% of anuran habitats will become arid like by 2080–2100, with 15.4–36.1% exposed to worsening drought, under an intermediate- and high-emission scenario, respectively. Arid conditions are expected to double water loss rates, and combined drought and warming will double reductions in anuran activity compared with warming impacts alone by 2080–2100. These findings underscore the pervasive synergistic threat of warming and environmental drying to anurans. The authors consider the future risks of warming and drying to water-sensitive anuran species. They show that increased aridity of anuran habitats and drought exposure under climate change, combined with warming, can substantially reduce anuran activity.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1314-1322"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142451821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02141-9
Multiple fire models, within an impact attribution framework, have been used to explore how climate change is impacting fire worldwide. Results show that climate change is increasing burned area in most regions, particularly during periods of peak fire activity, and this effect is increasing over time. However, changes in population and land use are mitigating some of the effects of climate change.
{"title":"Climate change is increasingly affecting fires worldwide","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02141-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02141-9","url":null,"abstract":"Multiple fire models, within an impact attribution framework, have been used to explore how climate change is impacting fire worldwide. Results show that climate change is increasing burned area in most regions, particularly during periods of peak fire activity, and this effect is increasing over time. However, changes in population and land use are mitigating some of the effects of climate change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1123-1124"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142452004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-18DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02168-y
Charles A. Ogunbode, Rouven Doran, Arin H. Ayanian, Joonha Park, Akira Utsugi, Karlijn L. van den Broek, Jihane Ghorayeb, Sibele D. Aquino, Samuel Lins, John J. B. R. Aruta, Marc E. S. Reyes, Andreas Zick, Susan Clayton
Climate justice is increasingly prominent in climate change communication and advocacy but little is known about public understanding of the concept or how widely it resonates with different groups. In our global survey of 5,627 adults in 11 countries spanning the global north and south, most participants (66.2%) had never heard of climate justice. Nonetheless, endorsement of climate justice beliefs was widespread (for example, acknowledging the disproportionate impact of climate change on poor people and the underpinning roles of capitalism and colonialism in the climate crisis). Climate justice beliefs were also associated with various indices of climate action and policy support. These associations tended to be stronger in countries with high GHG emissions and where social inequality is also more politically salient. The results highlight the value of climate justice as a motive for climate action across diverse geographical contexts. Little is known about public understanding of climate justice, despite its increasing prominence in climate change communication. Here a global survey reveals that, although awareness of climate justice is low, beliefs in climate justice are widely supported across countries.
{"title":"Climate justice beliefs related to climate action and policy support around the world","authors":"Charles A. Ogunbode, Rouven Doran, Arin H. Ayanian, Joonha Park, Akira Utsugi, Karlijn L. van den Broek, Jihane Ghorayeb, Sibele D. Aquino, Samuel Lins, John J. B. R. Aruta, Marc E. S. Reyes, Andreas Zick, Susan Clayton","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02168-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02168-y","url":null,"abstract":"Climate justice is increasingly prominent in climate change communication and advocacy but little is known about public understanding of the concept or how widely it resonates with different groups. In our global survey of 5,627 adults in 11 countries spanning the global north and south, most participants (66.2%) had never heard of climate justice. Nonetheless, endorsement of climate justice beliefs was widespread (for example, acknowledging the disproportionate impact of climate change on poor people and the underpinning roles of capitalism and colonialism in the climate crisis). Climate justice beliefs were also associated with various indices of climate action and policy support. These associations tended to be stronger in countries with high GHG emissions and where social inequality is also more politically salient. The results highlight the value of climate justice as a motive for climate action across diverse geographical contexts. Little is known about public understanding of climate justice, despite its increasing prominence in climate change communication. Here a global survey reveals that, although awareness of climate justice is low, beliefs in climate justice are widely supported across countries.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1144-1150"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02168-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142448356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-15DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1
Roman Hoffmann, Guy Abel, Maurizio Malpede, Raya Muttarak, Marco Percoco
While the effects of climatic changes on migration have received widespread public and scientific attention, comparative evidence for their influence on internal migration worldwide remains scarce. Here we use census-based data from 72 countries (1960–2016) to analyse 107,840 migration flows between subnational regions. We find that increased drought and aridity have a significant impact on internal migration, particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East and South America. Migration patterns are shaped by the wealth, agricultural dependency and urbanization of both origin and destination areas with migration responses being stronger in rural and predominantly agricultural areas. While overall climatic effects on migration are stronger in richer countries, we observe higher out-migration from poorer towards wealthier regions within countries. Furthermore, age and education groups respond differently to climatic stress, highlighting distinct mobility patterns of population subgroups across different geographic contexts. Limited comparative evidence exists on the impacts of climatic factors on internal migration. Here, using a harmonized census-based dataset, the authors find that drought and aridity substantially increase internal migration, with considerable heterogeneity across regions, age groups and education levels.
{"title":"Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide","authors":"Roman Hoffmann, Guy Abel, Maurizio Malpede, Raya Muttarak, Marco Percoco","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1","url":null,"abstract":"While the effects of climatic changes on migration have received widespread public and scientific attention, comparative evidence for their influence on internal migration worldwide remains scarce. Here we use census-based data from 72 countries (1960–2016) to analyse 107,840 migration flows between subnational regions. We find that increased drought and aridity have a significant impact on internal migration, particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East and South America. Migration patterns are shaped by the wealth, agricultural dependency and urbanization of both origin and destination areas with migration responses being stronger in rural and predominantly agricultural areas. While overall climatic effects on migration are stronger in richer countries, we observe higher out-migration from poorer towards wealthier regions within countries. Furthermore, age and education groups respond differently to climatic stress, highlighting distinct mobility patterns of population subgroups across different geographic contexts. Limited comparative evidence exists on the impacts of climatic factors on internal migration. Here, using a harmonized census-based dataset, the authors find that drought and aridity substantially increase internal migration, with considerable heterogeneity across regions, age groups and education levels.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1245-1253"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142436282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-14DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02154-4
David H. Klinges
Climate influences when leaves change colour and fall, but not all trees lose their leaves at the same time. Combining field data, mathematical models and remote sensing, researchers show how local-scale variation in tree canopies and understory temperatures alters the start and duration of autumn leaf colouration and forecast reduced autumn delays under climate change.
{"title":"Microclimate regulates when autumn leaves fall","authors":"David H. Klinges","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02154-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02154-4","url":null,"abstract":"Climate influences when leaves change colour and fall, but not all trees lose their leaves at the same time. Combining field data, mathematical models and remote sensing, researchers show how local-scale variation in tree canopies and understory temperatures alters the start and duration of autumn leaf colouration and forecast reduced autumn delays under climate change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1226-1227"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-14DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02164-2
Xiaoyong Wu, Chunyue Niu, Xiaoqiang Liu, Tianyu Hu, Yuhao Feng, Yingyi Zhao, Shuwen Liu, Zhonghua Liu, Guanhua Dai, Yao Zhang, Koenraad Van Meerbeek, Jin Wu, Lingli Liu, Qinghua Guo, Yanjun Su
Autumn phenology plays a critical role in shaping the carbon sequestration capacity of temperate forests. Notable local-scale variations in autumn phenology have drawn increasing attention recently, potentially introducing substantial uncertainty when predicting temperate forest productivity. Yet the underpinning mechanisms driving these variations remain inadequately elucidated. Here we observed significant and consistent relationships between canopy structure and autumn phenology across six temperate forest sites, induced by the regulation effect of canopy structure on microclimate conditions. Incorporating the identified ‘canopy structure–microclimate–autumn phenology’ pathway into existing autumn phenology models significantly improves the prediction accuracy and reduces the projected delay in the start of autumn over the remainder of the century. These findings offer a new perspective for interpreting the local variations of autumn phenology in temperate forests and emphasize the urgent need to integrate the identified pathway into the Earth system and vegetation models, especially considering the asynchronous changes of macroclimate and microclimate conditions. The authors demonstrate a significant influence of canopy structure on autumn phenology in temperate forests, mediated by microclimate regulation. Incorporating this relationship into autumn phenology models enhances their prediction accuracy and reduces previously projected delays in autumn phenology.
{"title":"Canopy structure regulates autumn phenology by mediating the microclimate in temperate forests","authors":"Xiaoyong Wu, Chunyue Niu, Xiaoqiang Liu, Tianyu Hu, Yuhao Feng, Yingyi Zhao, Shuwen Liu, Zhonghua Liu, Guanhua Dai, Yao Zhang, Koenraad Van Meerbeek, Jin Wu, Lingli Liu, Qinghua Guo, Yanjun Su","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02164-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02164-2","url":null,"abstract":"Autumn phenology plays a critical role in shaping the carbon sequestration capacity of temperate forests. Notable local-scale variations in autumn phenology have drawn increasing attention recently, potentially introducing substantial uncertainty when predicting temperate forest productivity. Yet the underpinning mechanisms driving these variations remain inadequately elucidated. Here we observed significant and consistent relationships between canopy structure and autumn phenology across six temperate forest sites, induced by the regulation effect of canopy structure on microclimate conditions. Incorporating the identified ‘canopy structure–microclimate–autumn phenology’ pathway into existing autumn phenology models significantly improves the prediction accuracy and reduces the projected delay in the start of autumn over the remainder of the century. These findings offer a new perspective for interpreting the local variations of autumn phenology in temperate forests and emphasize the urgent need to integrate the identified pathway into the Earth system and vegetation models, especially considering the asynchronous changes of macroclimate and microclimate conditions. The authors demonstrate a significant influence of canopy structure on autumn phenology in temperate forests, mediated by microclimate regulation. Incorporating this relationship into autumn phenology models enhances their prediction accuracy and reduces previously projected delays in autumn phenology.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1299-1305"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-11DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02145-5
Ling Tang, Junai Yang, Jiali Zheng, Xinlu Sun, Lu Cheng, Kehan He, Ling Li, Jinkai Li, Wenjia Cai, Shouyang Wang, Paul Drummond, Zhifu Mi
Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age would increase China’s household carbon footprint mainly by boosting population and labour. Policymakers should synergize policies targeting population ageing and climate change, which are both crucial for sustainable development.
{"title":"Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age increase China’s carbon emissions","authors":"Ling Tang, Junai Yang, Jiali Zheng, Xinlu Sun, Lu Cheng, Kehan He, Ling Li, Jinkai Li, Wenjia Cai, Shouyang Wang, Paul Drummond, Zhifu Mi","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02145-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02145-5","url":null,"abstract":"Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age would increase China’s household carbon footprint mainly by boosting population and labour. Policymakers should synergize policies targeting population ageing and climate change, which are both crucial for sustainable development.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1228-1229"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02145-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Breeding programmes have increased the yields of major crops, including maize (Zea mays L.), but the suitability of optimized traits to future climates remains unclear. Here, by comparing the responses of 323 elite maize inbred lines from different breeding eras under natural field conditions, we show that while newer lines exhibit higher grain yield than the early released lines under standard growth, the bred trait of reduced tassel size increases the susceptibility of newly released lines to high temperature during flowering. We identified a potential threshold for spikelets per tassel (~700), over which maize can produce a stably high seed set ratio under warm conditions, and show that small-tassel (<700 spikelets per tassel) genotypes are now unsuitable in 23.7% of global maize-growing regions. Our work highlights the need to consider possible climate change maladaptation resulting from breeding programmes. By comparing the responses of 323 elite maize lines from different breeding eras, the authors demonstrate that reduced tassel size in newer lines can lead to increased susceptibility to high temperature. This highlights the potential for traits optimized by breeding to lead to climate maladaptation.
{"title":"Maize breeding for smaller tassels threatens yield under a warming climate","authors":"Yingjun Zhang, Xin Dong, Hongyu Wang, Yihsuan Lin, Lian Jin, Xuanlong Lv, Qian Yao, Baole Li, Jia Gao, Pu Wang, Baobao Wang, Shoubing Huang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02161-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02161-5","url":null,"abstract":"Breeding programmes have increased the yields of major crops, including maize (Zea mays L.), but the suitability of optimized traits to future climates remains unclear. Here, by comparing the responses of 323 elite maize inbred lines from different breeding eras under natural field conditions, we show that while newer lines exhibit higher grain yield than the early released lines under standard growth, the bred trait of reduced tassel size increases the susceptibility of newly released lines to high temperature during flowering. We identified a potential threshold for spikelets per tassel (~700), over which maize can produce a stably high seed set ratio under warm conditions, and show that small-tassel (<700 spikelets per tassel) genotypes are now unsuitable in 23.7% of global maize-growing regions. Our work highlights the need to consider possible climate change maladaptation resulting from breeding programmes. By comparing the responses of 323 elite maize lines from different breeding eras, the authors demonstrate that reduced tassel size in newer lines can lead to increased susceptibility to high temperature. This highlights the potential for traits optimized by breeding to lead to climate maladaptation.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1306-1313"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-11DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02162-4
Ling Tang, Junai Yang, Jiali Zheng, Xinlu Sun, Lu Cheng, Kehan He, Ling Li, Jinkai Li, Wenjia Cai, Shouyang Wang, Paul Drummond, Zhifu Mi
The gradual adjustment of fertility and retirement policies in China has social benefits in terms of coping with population aging. However, the environmental consequences of these policies remain ambiguous. Here we compile environmentally extended multiregional input–output tables to estimate household carbon footprints for different population age groups in China. Subsequently, we estimate the age-sex-specific population under different fertility policies up to 2060 and assess the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on household carbon footprints. We find that Chinese young people have relatively higher household carbon footprints than their older counterparts due to differences in income by age group. Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age are associated with an increase in population (and labour supply) and thus increases in household carbon footprints, with the majority of these increases from the fertility side. These results may help policymakers understand interactions among those measures targeting population aging and climate action. Demographic policies to address population aging could have major climate consequences, and such interaction effect is context dependent. This study shows that relaxing the fertility policy and delaying retirement age in China could lead to an increase in total and per capita household carbon footprint.
{"title":"Assessing the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on China’s carbon emissions","authors":"Ling Tang, Junai Yang, Jiali Zheng, Xinlu Sun, Lu Cheng, Kehan He, Ling Li, Jinkai Li, Wenjia Cai, Shouyang Wang, Paul Drummond, Zhifu Mi","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02162-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02162-4","url":null,"abstract":"The gradual adjustment of fertility and retirement policies in China has social benefits in terms of coping with population aging. However, the environmental consequences of these policies remain ambiguous. Here we compile environmentally extended multiregional input–output tables to estimate household carbon footprints for different population age groups in China. Subsequently, we estimate the age-sex-specific population under different fertility policies up to 2060 and assess the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on household carbon footprints. We find that Chinese young people have relatively higher household carbon footprints than their older counterparts due to differences in income by age group. Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age are associated with an increase in population (and labour supply) and thus increases in household carbon footprints, with the majority of these increases from the fertility side. These results may help policymakers understand interactions among those measures targeting population aging and climate action. Demographic policies to address population aging could have major climate consequences, and such interaction effect is context dependent. This study shows that relaxing the fertility policy and delaying retirement age in China could lead to an increase in total and per capita household carbon footprint.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1261-1267"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02162-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142404921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：