Pub Date : 2024-08-12DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4
Christoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin, Laurent Drouet, Gunnar Luderer, Bas van Ruijven, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Ryna Cui, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nate Hultman, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Robin D. Lamboll, Rahel Mandaroux, Pedro Rochedo, Joeri Rogelj, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva, Isabela Tagomori, Detlef van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Keywan Riahi
Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design. The Paris Agreement requires reaching net-zero carbon emissions, but a debate exists on how fast this can be achieved. This study establishes scenarios with different feasibility constraints and finds that the institutional dimension plays a key role for determining the feasible peak temperature.
尽管清洁能源技术部署的进展快于预期，但从 2020 年到 2023 年，全球二氧化碳年排放量仍在增加。因此，将升温限制在 1.5 ° C 的可行性受到质疑。在此，我们介绍了一项模型相互比较研究，该研究考虑了 2023 年之前的排放趋势，并将具有成本效益的情景与具有制度、地球物理和技术可行性限制的替代情景进行了比较。我们的结果表明，根据最新的气候信息，最雄心勃勃的减缓轨迹仍能将峰值升温限制在 1.6 ℃ 以下（"低超调"），可能性约为 50%。然而，可行性制约因素，尤其是制度方面的制约因素，将这一最大可能性大大降低至 5-45%。加快能源需求转型可以降低将升温控制在 2 °C 以下的成本，但对进一步提高将升温控制在 1.6 °C 的可能性影响有限。我们的研究有助于建立一个新的减缓情景基准，它超越了主流的成本效益情景设计。
{"title":"Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints","authors":"Christoph Bertram, Elina Brutschin, Laurent Drouet, Gunnar Luderer, Bas van Ruijven, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Ryna Cui, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nate Hultman, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Robin D. Lamboll, Rahel Mandaroux, Pedro Rochedo, Joeri Rogelj, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva, Isabela Tagomori, Detlef van Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Keywan Riahi","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4","url":null,"abstract":"Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design. The Paris Agreement requires reaching net-zero carbon emissions, but a debate exists on how fast this can be achieved. This study establishes scenarios with different feasibility constraints and finds that the institutional dimension plays a key role for determining the feasible peak temperature.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 9","pages":"954-960"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02073-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141918842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-12DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02089-w
Manfredi Manizza
The erosion of melting permafrost in the coastal Arctic Ocean is projected to lower the ocean’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, triggering unexpected carbon–climate feedbacks in the Arctic region.
{"title":"Climate feedbacks from coastal erosion","authors":"Manfredi Manizza","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02089-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02089-w","url":null,"abstract":"The erosion of melting permafrost in the coastal Arctic Ocean is projected to lower the ocean’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, triggering unexpected carbon–climate feedbacks in the Arctic region.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 9","pages":"899-900"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141974036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-12DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02107-x
R. M. Colvin
{"title":"Caution in the use of populism to describe distributional considerations of climate policy","authors":"R. M. Colvin","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02107-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02107-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 9","pages":"886-886"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141918841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-12DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02090-3
Richard J. Norby, Neil J. Loader, Carolina Mayoral, Sami Ullah, Giulio Curioni, Andy R. Smith, Michaela K. Reay, Klaske van Wijngaarden, Muhammad Shoaib Amjad, Deanne Brettle, Martha E. Crockatt, Gael Denny, Robert T. Grzesik, R. Liz Hamilton, Kris M. Hart, Iain P. Hartley, Alan G. Jones, Angeliki Kourmouli, Joshua R. Larsen, Zongbo Shi, Rick M. Thomas, A. Robert MacKenzie
Enhanced CO2 assimilation by forests as atmospheric CO2 concentration rises could slow the rate of CO2 increase if the assimilated carbon is allocated to long-lived biomass. Experiments in young tree plantations support a CO2 fertilization effect as atmospheric CO2 continues to increase. Uncertainty exists, however, as to whether older, more mature forests retain the capacity to respond to elevated CO2. Here, aided by tree-ring analysis and canopy laser scanning, we show that a 180-year-old Quercus robur L. woodland in central England increased the production of woody biomass when exposed to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) for 7 years. Further, elevated CO2 increased exudation of carbon from fine roots into the soil with likely effects on nutrient cycles. The increase in tree growth and allocation to long-lived woody biomass demonstrated here substantiates the major role for mature temperate forests in climate change mitigation. While experiments in younger trees support increased production under higher CO2, it is unclear whether more mature trees can respond similarly. Here, the authors show increased production of biomass in a 180-year-old Quercus robur L. woodland under 7 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE).
{"title":"Enhanced woody biomass production in a mature temperate forest under elevated CO2","authors":"Richard J. Norby, Neil J. Loader, Carolina Mayoral, Sami Ullah, Giulio Curioni, Andy R. Smith, Michaela K. Reay, Klaske van Wijngaarden, Muhammad Shoaib Amjad, Deanne Brettle, Martha E. Crockatt, Gael Denny, Robert T. Grzesik, R. Liz Hamilton, Kris M. Hart, Iain P. Hartley, Alan G. Jones, Angeliki Kourmouli, Joshua R. Larsen, Zongbo Shi, Rick M. Thomas, A. Robert MacKenzie","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02090-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02090-3","url":null,"abstract":"Enhanced CO2 assimilation by forests as atmospheric CO2 concentration rises could slow the rate of CO2 increase if the assimilated carbon is allocated to long-lived biomass. Experiments in young tree plantations support a CO2 fertilization effect as atmospheric CO2 continues to increase. Uncertainty exists, however, as to whether older, more mature forests retain the capacity to respond to elevated CO2. Here, aided by tree-ring analysis and canopy laser scanning, we show that a 180-year-old Quercus robur L. woodland in central England increased the production of woody biomass when exposed to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) for 7 years. Further, elevated CO2 increased exudation of carbon from fine roots into the soil with likely effects on nutrient cycles. The increase in tree growth and allocation to long-lived woody biomass demonstrated here substantiates the major role for mature temperate forests in climate change mitigation. While experiments in younger trees support increased production under higher CO2, it is unclear whether more mature trees can respond similarly. Here, the authors show increased production of biomass in a 180-year-old Quercus robur L. woodland under 7 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE).","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 9","pages":"983-988"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02090-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141918843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-12DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02094-z
Gernot Wagner
Technological feasibility and project-level economic costs are only two important considerations in previous estimations of climate mitigation costs. Now a study shows how political and institutional constraints matter too.
{"title":"What counts as climate mitigation costs","authors":"Gernot Wagner","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02094-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02094-z","url":null,"abstract":"Technological feasibility and project-level economic costs are only two important considerations in previous estimations of climate mitigation costs. Now a study shows how political and institutional constraints matter too.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 9","pages":"897-898"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141918816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-09DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02085-0
David R. Easterling, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Allison R. Crimmins, Michael F. Wehner
{"title":"Long-term planning requires climate projections beyond 2100","authors":"David R. Easterling, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Allison R. Crimmins, Michael F. Wehner","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02085-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02085-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 9","pages":"887-888"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141908971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-07DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02098-9
Tegan Armarego-Marriott
{"title":"Biased reports of species range shifts","authors":"Tegan Armarego-Marriott","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02098-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02098-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 8","pages":"782-782"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141904426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-07DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02103-1
From a scientific standpoint, the causes of current ongoing climate change are well established. But in the context of rapid change, and real-world consequences, there is still room — and need — for scientific discussion in climate change fields.
{"title":"Climate change debates","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02103-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02103-1","url":null,"abstract":"From a scientific standpoint, the causes of current ongoing climate change are well established. But in the context of rapid change, and real-world consequences, there is still room — and need — for scientific discussion in climate change fields.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 8","pages":"769-769"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02103-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141904198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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