Pub Date : 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02493-w
Yunqiang Wang, Zimin Li
Anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating soil moisture droughts globally, but most studies only consider surface layers. Now, a study reveals that global soil moisture droughts are often also found in deeper layers, and that in a warming climate deep soil moisture droughts are projected to become longer lasting and more severe.
{"title":"Hidden deep soil moisture droughts","authors":"Yunqiang Wang, Zimin Li","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02493-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02493-w","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating soil moisture droughts globally, but most studies only consider surface layers. Now, a study reveals that global soil moisture droughts are often also found in deeper layers, and that in a warming climate deep soil moisture droughts are projected to become longer lasting and more severe.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1273-1274"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145509009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02476-x
E. M. Wolkovich, Ailene K. Ettinger, Alana R. Chin, Catherine J. Chamberlain, Frederik Baumgarten, Kavya Pradhan, Rubén D. Manzanedo, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers
Most climate change forecasts assume that longer growing seasons increase carbon storage through increased tree growth, but recent findings have challenged this assumption. Here we highlight divergent findings across studies, spanning diverse methods and disciplinary perspectives. Current hypotheses for why longer growing seasons may not always increase tree growth include drought-related effects and internal constraints. These hypotheses, however, are generally tested in different ways by different fields on different species, and rarely consider how external drivers and internal constraints interact. We outline how bridging these divides while integrating evolutionary history and ecological theory could help build a unified model across species for when longer seasons will—or will not—lead to greater tree growth, with major forecasting implications. In this Progress Article, the authors discuss why longer growing seasons under climate change may or may not increase tree growth. They highlight differences across fields, as well as research gaps, and propose three major open questions to guide future research.
{"title":"Why longer seasons with climate change may not increase tree growth","authors":"E. M. Wolkovich, Ailene K. Ettinger, Alana R. Chin, Catherine J. Chamberlain, Frederik Baumgarten, Kavya Pradhan, Rubén D. Manzanedo, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02476-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02476-x","url":null,"abstract":"Most climate change forecasts assume that longer growing seasons increase carbon storage through increased tree growth, but recent findings have challenged this assumption. Here we highlight divergent findings across studies, spanning diverse methods and disciplinary perspectives. Current hypotheses for why longer growing seasons may not always increase tree growth include drought-related effects and internal constraints. These hypotheses, however, are generally tested in different ways by different fields on different species, and rarely consider how external drivers and internal constraints interact. We outline how bridging these divides while integrating evolutionary history and ecological theory could help build a unified model across species for when longer seasons will—or will not—lead to greater tree growth, with major forecasting implications. In this Progress Article, the authors discuss why longer growing seasons under climate change may or may not increase tree growth. They highlight differences across fields, as well as research gaps, and propose three major open questions to guide future research.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1283-1292"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145509011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-13DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02495-8
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation describes the most important pattern of low-frequency climate variability in the North Pacific. An analysis of sea surface temperatures reveals that, since 2014, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation’s influence has been superseded by that of basin-wide warming, producing novel expressions of ocean variability and unexpected ecological impacts.
{"title":"Warming overpowers low-frequency North Pacific climate variability","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02495-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02495-8","url":null,"abstract":"The Pacific Decadal Oscillation describes the most important pattern of low-frequency climate variability in the North Pacific. An analysis of sea surface temperatures reveals that, since 2014, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation’s influence has been superseded by that of basin-wide warming, producing novel expressions of ocean variability and unexpected ecological impacts.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1279-1280"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145498486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-12DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02481-0
Alice S. A. Johnston, Jiyoung Kim, Jim A. Harris
Artificial light pollution is increasing worldwide with pervasive effects on ecosystem structure and function, yet its influence on ecosystem metabolism remains largely unknown. Here we combine artificial light at night (ALAN) intensity metrics with eddy covariance observations across 86 sites in North America and Europe to show that ALAN indirectly decreases annual net ecosystem exchange by enhancing ecosystem respiration (Re). At half-hourly and daily scales, we detect consistent nonlinear interactions between ALAN and night duration, with Re increasing under higher ALAN and partially decoupling from gross primary production. At the annual scale, gross primary production shows no direct ALAN response and is instead influenced by the growing season length and urban proximity, whereas Re responds more strongly and consistently across timescales. Our findings show that ALAN disrupts the fundamental energetic constraints on ecosystem metabolism, warranting the inclusion of light pollution in global change and carbon–climate feedback assessments. The authors combine light intensity data with eddy covariance observations from 86 sites to show that artificial light at night increases ecosystem respiration and alters carbon exchange, with impacts shaped by diel cycles and seasonal dynamics.
{"title":"Widespread influence of artificial light at night on ecosystem metabolism","authors":"Alice S. A. Johnston, Jiyoung Kim, Jim A. Harris","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02481-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02481-0","url":null,"abstract":"Artificial light pollution is increasing worldwide with pervasive effects on ecosystem structure and function, yet its influence on ecosystem metabolism remains largely unknown. Here we combine artificial light at night (ALAN) intensity metrics with eddy covariance observations across 86 sites in North America and Europe to show that ALAN indirectly decreases annual net ecosystem exchange by enhancing ecosystem respiration (Re). At half-hourly and daily scales, we detect consistent nonlinear interactions between ALAN and night duration, with Re increasing under higher ALAN and partially decoupling from gross primary production. At the annual scale, gross primary production shows no direct ALAN response and is instead influenced by the growing season length and urban proximity, whereas Re responds more strongly and consistently across timescales. Our findings show that ALAN disrupts the fundamental energetic constraints on ecosystem metabolism, warranting the inclusion of light pollution in global change and carbon–climate feedback assessments. The authors combine light intensity data with eddy covariance observations from 86 sites to show that artificial light at night increases ecosystem respiration and alters carbon exchange, with impacts shaped by diel cycles and seasonal dynamics.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1371-1377"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02481-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145492649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-12DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02499-4
Yaoping Cui, Jinwei Dong
As artificial light encroaches upon cities and countryside, natural darkness recedes and circadian rhythms shift in regions worldwide. Now, a study reveals that bright nights are negatively impacting the carbon sinks of ecosystems.
{"title":"Artificial light reduces ecosystem carbon sinks","authors":"Yaoping Cui, Jinwei Dong","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02499-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02499-4","url":null,"abstract":"As artificial light encroaches upon cities and countryside, natural darkness recedes and circadian rhythms shift in regions worldwide. Now, a study reveals that bright nights are negatively impacting the carbon sinks of ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1275-1276"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145492646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-11DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02483-y
Duncan J. Graham, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Edward R. Jones, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Michelle T. H. van Vliet
Increased water temperatures under climate change will probably cause decreases in dissolved oxygen and an associated increase in the number of days with hypoxia. This could have major consequences for freshwater ecosystems, but the extent of this threat remains unclear. Here we analyse trends in dissolved oxygen concentrations and days with stress and hypoxia in rivers worldwide between the periods 1980–2019 and 2020–2100 under global change. To achieve this, we train a hybrid process-based and machine learning model on approximately 2.6 million observations of dissolved oxygen, and we apply this model under both past and future conditions globally. The model projects significant decreasing trends in dissolved oxygen in most of the world’s rivers, resulting in on average 8.8 ± 2.3 more hypoxia days per decade globally between the years 2020 and 2100, and indicating a potentially major threat to freshwater ecosystems worldwide. Dissolved oxygen concentrations are expected to decline with rising water temperatures under climate change. This study projects declining oxygen levels for most rivers globally and an increase in hypoxic days by the end of the century, with implications for ecosystem and fish health.
{"title":"Climate change drives low dissolved oxygen and increased hypoxia rates in rivers worldwide","authors":"Duncan J. Graham, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Edward R. Jones, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Michelle T. H. van Vliet","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02483-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02483-y","url":null,"abstract":"Increased water temperatures under climate change will probably cause decreases in dissolved oxygen and an associated increase in the number of days with hypoxia. This could have major consequences for freshwater ecosystems, but the extent of this threat remains unclear. Here we analyse trends in dissolved oxygen concentrations and days with stress and hypoxia in rivers worldwide between the periods 1980–2019 and 2020–2100 under global change. To achieve this, we train a hybrid process-based and machine learning model on approximately 2.6 million observations of dissolved oxygen, and we apply this model under both past and future conditions globally. The model projects significant decreasing trends in dissolved oxygen in most of the world’s rivers, resulting in on average 8.8 ± 2.3 more hypoxia days per decade globally between the years 2020 and 2100, and indicating a potentially major threat to freshwater ecosystems worldwide. Dissolved oxygen concentrations are expected to decline with rising water temperatures under climate change. This study projects declining oxygen levels for most rivers globally and an increase in hypoxic days by the end of the century, with implications for ecosystem and fish health.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1348-1354"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145484767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-10DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02485-w
Shuai Zhang, Yilin Chen, Wenqing Zang, Xinlai Wu, Per G. P. Ericson, Fumin Lei, Yanhua Qu
Climate change is rapidly driving environmental shifts, posing an increasing threat to global biodiversity. Interspecific introgression—in which genetic material is transferred from one species to another following hybridization—may facilitate climate adaptation by introducing new genetic variation, which could mitigate species’ vulnerability to changing conditions. Here, using population and ecological genomic approaches and genetic offset modelling for future climates, we show that hybrid mountainous birds showed reduced vulnerability to climate change compared with non-hybrid counterparts. While geographic isolation and ecological heterogeneity promoted species divergence and distinct climatic niche requirements, gene flow persists at contact zones between these species. Maintaining current gene flow rates is projected to buffer against climate change risks over the next 40 generations. These findings demonstrate the role of interspecific introgression in enhancing climate resilience and future survival, and emphasize the conservation importance of preserving gene flow among species with narrow environmental tolerances. Using population and ecological genomic approaches, the authors demonstrate the potential for interspecific introgression—the transfer of genetic material following hybridization—to reduce climate change vulnerability. Their findings emphasize the importance of preserving interspecific connectivity.
{"title":"Hybridization mitigates climate change risk in mountainous birds","authors":"Shuai Zhang, Yilin Chen, Wenqing Zang, Xinlai Wu, Per G. P. Ericson, Fumin Lei, Yanhua Qu","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02485-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02485-w","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is rapidly driving environmental shifts, posing an increasing threat to global biodiversity. Interspecific introgression—in which genetic material is transferred from one species to another following hybridization—may facilitate climate adaptation by introducing new genetic variation, which could mitigate species’ vulnerability to changing conditions. Here, using population and ecological genomic approaches and genetic offset modelling for future climates, we show that hybrid mountainous birds showed reduced vulnerability to climate change compared with non-hybrid counterparts. While geographic isolation and ecological heterogeneity promoted species divergence and distinct climatic niche requirements, gene flow persists at contact zones between these species. Maintaining current gene flow rates is projected to buffer against climate change risks over the next 40 generations. These findings demonstrate the role of interspecific introgression in enhancing climate resilience and future survival, and emphasize the conservation importance of preserving gene flow among species with narrow environmental tolerances. Using population and ecological genomic approaches, the authors demonstrate the potential for interspecific introgression—the transfer of genetic material following hybridization—to reduce climate change vulnerability. Their findings emphasize the importance of preserving interspecific connectivity.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1378-1387"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145478177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-07DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02482-z
Allison A. Cluett, Steven J. Bograd, Michael G. Jacox, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Elliott L. Hazen
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has served as a key index linking basin-scale climate variability to marine ecosystem changes in the North Pacific. However, recent apparent breakdowns of PDO–ecosystem correlations have raised concerns about the stability of the mode and its continued relevance in a warming climate. Here we show that basin-wide warming now overwhelms PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) variability, although neither the PDO’s spatial pattern nor its strength have changed. We introduce the pan-basin pattern as a complementary index to describe the non-stationary SST baseline of the North Pacific. Regional SSTs increasingly reflect the superposition of these two signals, providing an explanation for weakened or inverted PDO–ecosystem correlations. Future use of the PDO index in management will require discerning the effects of internal dynamics from those of absolute changes in SST as extreme and no-analogue ocean conditions driven by interacting natural variability and anthropogenic warming become more common. Natural patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), strongly influence regional climate. This study shows that anthropogenic warming now has greater influence than the PDO on North Pacific sea surface temperatures, with implications for predictability and impacts.
{"title":"Pan-basin warming now overshadows robust Pacific Decadal Oscillation","authors":"Allison A. Cluett, Steven J. Bograd, Michael G. Jacox, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Elliott L. Hazen","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02482-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02482-z","url":null,"abstract":"The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has served as a key index linking basin-scale climate variability to marine ecosystem changes in the North Pacific. However, recent apparent breakdowns of PDO–ecosystem correlations have raised concerns about the stability of the mode and its continued relevance in a warming climate. Here we show that basin-wide warming now overwhelms PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) variability, although neither the PDO’s spatial pattern nor its strength have changed. We introduce the pan-basin pattern as a complementary index to describe the non-stationary SST baseline of the North Pacific. Regional SSTs increasingly reflect the superposition of these two signals, providing an explanation for weakened or inverted PDO–ecosystem correlations. Future use of the PDO index in management will require discerning the effects of internal dynamics from those of absolute changes in SST as extreme and no-analogue ocean conditions driven by interacting natural variability and anthropogenic warming become more common. Natural patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), strongly influence regional climate. This study shows that anthropogenic warming now has greater influence than the PDO on North Pacific sea surface temperatures, with implications for predictability and impacts.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1340-1347"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02482-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145455438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-06DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02472-1
Marie Juanchich, Karl Halvor Teigen, Theodore G. Shepherd, Miroslav Sirota
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends describing low-probability outcomes using negative verbal probability terms such as unlikely, rather than positive terms such as a small probability. However, we propose that this choice of probability terms might undermine public perception and understanding of climate science. Across eight preregistered experiments (N = 4,150), we find that participants perceive outcomes described with negative low probability terms as reflecting lower scientific consensus than probabilistically equivalent but positively framed terms. The effect persists after controlling for beliefs in climate change, familiarity with the IPCC and political orientation, although it weakens when the projected values exceeded participants’ personal expectations. Participants also associate negative low-probability terms more strongly with extreme outcomes and judge them as less evidence-based than their positive counterparts. We recommend using positive verbal probabilities to communicate comparable levels of uncertainty without undermining perceptions of scientific consensus and evidence. Effective communication of uncertainty is vital for public accurate understanding of climate science. Here the authors find that projections using positive probability terms (for example, a small probability) are perceived as more scientific and trustworthy than those using negative terms (for example, unlikely).
{"title":"Negative verbal probabilities undermine communication of climate science","authors":"Marie Juanchich, Karl Halvor Teigen, Theodore G. Shepherd, Miroslav Sirota","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02472-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02472-1","url":null,"abstract":"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends describing low-probability outcomes using negative verbal probability terms such as unlikely, rather than positive terms such as a small probability. However, we propose that this choice of probability terms might undermine public perception and understanding of climate science. Across eight preregistered experiments (N = 4,150), we find that participants perceive outcomes described with negative low probability terms as reflecting lower scientific consensus than probabilistically equivalent but positively framed terms. The effect persists after controlling for beliefs in climate change, familiarity with the IPCC and political orientation, although it weakens when the projected values exceeded participants’ personal expectations. Participants also associate negative low-probability terms more strongly with extreme outcomes and judge them as less evidence-based than their positive counterparts. We recommend using positive verbal probabilities to communicate comparable levels of uncertainty without undermining perceptions of scientific consensus and evidence. Effective communication of uncertainty is vital for public accurate understanding of climate science. Here the authors find that projections using positive probability terms (for example, a small probability) are perceived as more scientific and trustworthy than those using negative terms (for example, unlikely).","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1300-1306"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02472-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145447468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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