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Intermediate levels of scientific knowledge are associated with overconfidence and negative attitudes towards science 科学知识的中级水平与过度自信和对科学的消极态度有关。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01677-8
Simone Lackner, Frederico Francisco, Cristina Mendonça, André Mata, Joana Gonçalves-Sá
Overconfidence is a prevalent problem and it is particularly consequential in its relation with scientific knowledge: being unaware of one’s own ignorance can affect behaviours and threaten public policies and health. However, it is not clear how confidence varies with knowledge. Here, we examine four large surveys, spanning 30 years in Europe and the United States and propose a new confidence metric. This metric does not rely on self-reporting or peer comparison, operationalizing (over)confidence as the tendency to give incorrect answers rather than ‘don’t know’ responses to questions on scientific facts. We find a nonlinear relationship between knowledge and confidence, with overconfidence (the confidence gap) peaking at intermediate levels of actual scientific knowledge. These high-confidence/intermediate-knowledge groups also display the least positive attitudes towards science. These results differ from current models and, by identifying specific audiences, can help inform science communication strategies. Lackner et al. show that individuals with an intermediate level of science knowledge tend to have overconfidence in their own knowledge and negative attitudes to science.
过度自信是一个普遍存在的问题,它与科学知识的关系尤其重要:不知道自己的无知会影响行为,威胁公共政策和健康。然而,目前尚不清楚信心是如何随着知识而变化的。在这里,我们研究了四项大型调查,涵盖30个 并提出了一个新的置信度指标。这一指标不依赖于自我报告或同行比较,将(过度)自信视为对科学事实问题给出错误答案的倾向,而不是“不知道”的回答。我们发现知识和信心之间存在非线性关系,过度自信(信心差距)在实际科学知识的中间水平达到峰值。这些高信心/中等知识群体也表现出对科学最不积极的态度。这些结果与当前的模型不同,通过识别特定的受众,可以帮助制定科学传播策略。
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引用次数: 0
With some knowledge comes great confidence (and negative attitudes toward science) 有了一些知识,就会产生极大的信心(以及对科学的消极态度)。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01678-7
We proposed a confidence metric and analysed data from five large surveys that spanned 30 years in Europe and the USA. We found that both overconfidence and negative attitudes towards science peak at intermediate knowledge levels.
我们提出了一种自信度量标准,并分析了来自欧洲和美国 30 年间五项大型调查的数据。我们发现,对科学的过度自信和消极态度在中等知识水平时达到顶峰。
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引用次数: 0
Historical redlining is associated with increasing geographical disparities in bird biodiversity sampling in the United States 历史红线与美国鸟类生物多样性采样的地理差异增加有关。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01688-5
Diego Ellis-Soto, Melissa Chapman, Dexter H. Locke
Historic segregation and inequality are critical to understanding modern environmental conditions. Race-based zoning policies, such as redlining in the United States during the 1930s, are associated with racial inequity and adverse multigenerational socioeconomic levels in income and education, and disparate environmental characteristics including tree canopy cover across urban neighbourhoods. Here we quantify the association between redlining and bird biodiversity sampling density and completeness—two critical metrics of biodiversity knowledge—across 195 cities in the United States. We show that historically redlined neighbourhoods remain the most undersampled urban areas for bird biodiversity today, potentially impacting conservation priorities and propagating urban environmental inequities. The disparity in sampling across redlined neighbourhood grades increased by 35.6% over the past 20 years. We identify specific urban areas in need of increased bird biodiversity sampling and discuss possible strategies for reducing uncertainty and increasing equity of sampling of biodiversity in urban areas. Our findings highlight how human behaviour and past social, economic and political conditions not just segregate our built environment but may also leave a lasting mark on the digital information we have about urban biodiversity. In this study of bird biodiversity data from across 195 US cities, Ellis-Soto et al. show that historical redlining is associated with increasing inequality in sampling. Historically redlined neighbourhoods remain the most undersampled areas.
历史上的种族隔离和不平等是理解现代环境条件的关键。以种族为基础的分区政策,如20世纪30年代美国的红线政策,与种族不平等、收入和教育方面的不利的多代社会经济水平以及不同的环境特征(包括城市社区的树冠覆盖)有关。在这里,我们量化了美国195个城市的红线与鸟类生物多样性采样密度和完整性(生物多样性知识的两个关键指标)之间的关系。研究表明,历史上被划红线的社区仍然是鸟类生物多样性采样最不足的城市地区,这可能会影响保护重点,并加剧城市环境不平等。在过去的20年里,红线标出的社区等级的抽样差异增加了35.6%。我们确定了需要增加鸟类生物多样性采样的特定城市地区,并讨论了在城市地区减少不确定性和增加生物多样性采样公平性的可能策略。我们的研究结果强调,人类行为和过去的社会、经济和政治条件不仅隔离了我们的建筑环境,而且可能在我们拥有的关于城市生物多样性的数字信息上留下持久的印记。
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引用次数: 1
Moral foundations elicit shared and dissociable cortical activation modulated by political ideology 道德基础会引起受政治意识形态调节的共同的和可分离的大脑皮层激活。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01693-8
Frederic R. Hopp, Ori Amir, Jacob T. Fisher, Scott Grafton, Walter Sinnott-Armstrong, René Weber
Moral foundations theory (MFT) holds that moral judgements are driven by modular and ideologically variable moral foundations but where and how these foundations are represented in the brain and shaped by political beliefs remains an open question. Using a moral vignette judgement task (n = 64), we probed the neural (dis)unity of moral foundations. Univariate analyses revealed that moral judgement of moral foundations, versus conventional norms, reliably recruits core areas implicated in theory of mind. Yet, multivariate pattern analysis demonstrated that each moral foundation elicits dissociable neural representations distributed throughout the cortex. As predicted by MFT, individuals’ liberal or conservative orientation modulated neural responses to moral foundations. Our results confirm that each moral foundation recruits domain-general mechanisms of social cognition but also has a dissociable neural signature malleable by sociomoral experience. We discuss these findings in view of unified versus dissociable accounts of morality and their neurological support for MFT. Hopp et al. probe the neural (dis)unity of moral foundations theory and report that each moral foundation recruits domain-general mechanisms of social cognition but also has a dissociable neural signature malleable by sociomoral experience.
道德基础理论(MFT)认为,道德判断是由模块化和意识形态可变的道德基础所驱动的,但这些基础在大脑中的位置和表现方式以及政治信仰对其的影响仍是一个未决问题。通过道德小故事判断任务(n = 64),我们探究了道德基础的神经(不)统一性。单变量分析表明,道德基础的道德判断与传统规范相比,能可靠地调用与心智理论有关的核心区域。然而,多变量模式分析表明,每种道德基础都会引起分布在整个大脑皮层的不同神经表征。正如 MFT 所预测的那样,个体的自由或保守倾向会调节神经对道德基础的反应。我们的研究结果证实,每种道德基础都会动用社会认知的一般领域机制,但同时也具有可被社会道德经验改变的神经特征。我们将从道德的统一性与可分离性的角度来讨论这些发现,以及它们对 MFT 的神经学支持。
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引用次数: 0
Scaffolding cooperation in human groups with deep reinforcement learning 通过深度强化学习在人类群体中建立合作。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01686-7
Kevin R. McKee, Andrea Tacchetti, Michiel A. Bakker, Jan Balaguer, Lucy Campbell-Gillingham, Richard Everett, Matthew Botvinick
Effective approaches to encouraging group cooperation are still an open challenge. Here we apply recent advances in deep learning to structure networks of human participants playing a group cooperation game. We leverage deep reinforcement learning and simulation methods to train a ‘social planner’ capable of making recommendations to create or break connections between group members. The strategy that it develops succeeds at encouraging pro-sociality in networks of human participants (N = 208 participants in 13 groups) playing for real monetary stakes. Under the social planner, groups finished the game with an average cooperation rate of 77.7%, compared with 42.8% in static networks (N = 176 in 11 groups). In contrast to prior strategies that separate defectors from cooperators (tested here with N = 384 in 24 groups), the social planner learns to take a conciliatory approach to defectors, encouraging them to act pro-socially by moving them to small highly cooperative neighbourhoods. McKee et al. show that deep reinforcement learning can be used to learn a new and effective strategy for encouraging mutually beneficial cooperation in a network game.
鼓励集团合作的有效方法仍然是一个悬而未决的挑战。在这里,我们将深度学习的最新进展应用于构建玩群体合作游戏的人类参与者的网络。我们利用深度强化学习和模拟方法来培训一名“社会规划师”,该规划师能够提出建议,在团队成员之间建立或打破联系。它制定的策略成功地鼓励了人类参与者网络中的亲社会性(N = 13组208名参与者)进行真实货币赌注的游戏。在社会规划师的指导下,小组完成游戏的平均合作率为77.7%,而在静态网络中为42.8%(N = 11组176例)。与之前将叛逃者与合作者区分开来的策略相反(在这里用N测试 = 24组384人),社会规划师学会了对叛逃者采取和解的方式,鼓励他们采取亲社会的行动,将他们转移到高度合作的小社区。
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引用次数: 0
World’s human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled by high-resolution data 高分辨率数据揭示了2000-2019年全球人类迁徙模式。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01689-4
Venla Niva, Alexander Horton, Vili Virkki, Matias Heino, Maria Kosonen, Marko Kallio, Pekka Kinnunen, Guy J. Abel, Raya Muttarak, Maija Taka, Olli Varis, Matti Kummu
Despite being a topical issue in public debate and on the political agenda for many countries, a global-scale, high-resolution quantification of migration and its major drivers for the recent decades remained missing. We created a global dataset of annual net migration between 2000 and 2019 (~10 km grid, covering the areas of 216 countries or sovereign states), based on reported and downscaled subnational birth (2,555 administrative units) and death (2,067 administrative units) rates. We show that, globally, around 50% of the world’s urban population lived in areas where migration accelerated urban population growth, while a third of the global population lived in provinces where rural areas experienced positive net migration. Finally, we show that, globally, socioeconomic factors are more strongly associated with migration patterns than climatic factors. While our method is dependent on census data, incurring notable uncertainties in regions where census data coverage or quality is low, we were able to capture migration patterns not only between but also within countries, as well as by socioeconomic and geophysical zonings. Our results highlight the importance of subnational analysis of migration—a necessity for policy design, international cooperation and shared responsibility for managing internal and international migration. Producing a high-resolution global net migration dataset for 2000–2019, Niva et al. analyse how migration affects urban and rural population growth and show that socioeconomic factors are more strongly associated with migration than climatic ones.
尽管移民问题已成为公共辩论和许多国家政治议程上的热门话题,但对近几十年来全球范围内的移民及其主要驱动因素进行高分辨率量化仍然缺乏。我们创建了2000年至2019年年度净移民的全球数据集(约10公里网格,覆盖216个国家或主权州的地区),基于报告和缩小的次国家出生率(2,555个行政单位)和死亡率(2,067个行政单位)。我们表明,在全球范围内,大约50%的世界城市人口生活在移民加速城市人口增长的地区,而全球三分之一的人口生活在农村地区经历了正净移民的省份。最后,我们表明,在全球范围内,社会经济因素与移民模式的关系比气候因素更为密切。虽然我们的方法依赖于人口普查数据,在人口普查数据覆盖率或质量较低的地区会产生明显的不确定性,但我们不仅能够捕获国家之间,而且还可以捕获国家内部以及社会经济和地球物理区划的迁移模式。我们的研究结果强调了对移民进行次国家层面分析的重要性,这是政策设计、国际合作和共同承担管理国内和国际移民责任的必要条件。
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引用次数: 0
AI learns to encourage group cooperation by making new connections 人工智能学会通过建立新的联系来鼓励团队合作。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01699-2
We trained an artificial intelligence (AI) system to recommend different interactions and connections between humans playing a group game together. Through trial and error, the AI system learned to take an encouraging approach to uncooperative individuals, keeping them engaged with the group and boosting cooperation levels for everyone.
我们训练了一个人工智能(AI)系统,让它为一起玩团体游戏的人类推荐不同的互动和联系。通过反复试验,人工智能系统学会了对不合作的人采取鼓励的方式,让他们继续参与小组活动,提高每个人的合作水平。
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引用次数: 0
Arrests and convictions but not sentence length deter terrorism in 28 European Union member states 在28个欧盟成员国中,逮捕和定罪而不是刑期可以阻止恐怖主义。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-09-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01695-6
Michael Wolfowicz, Gian Maria Campedelli, Amber Seaward, Paul Gill
While countries differ in how they handle terrorism, criminal justice systems in Europe and elsewhere treat terrorism similar to other crime, with police, prosecutors, judges, courts and penal systems carrying out similar functions of investigations, apprehension, charging, convicting and overseeing punishments, respectively. We address a dearth of research on potential deterrent effects against terrorism by analysing data on terrorism offending, arrests, charges, convictions and sentencing over 16 years in 28 European Union member states. Applying both count and dynamic panel data models across multiple specifications, we find that increased probability of apprehension and punishment demonstrate an inverse relationship with terrorism offending, while the rate of charged individuals is associated with a small increase in terrorism. The results for sentence length are less clear but also indicate potential backlash effects. These findings unveil overlaps between crime and terrorism in terms of deterrent effects and have implications for both the research agenda and policy discussion. In a study of 28 European Union member states, Wolfowicz et al. found that increased levels of terrorism-related arrests and convictions are associated with decreases in terrorism. However, evidence concerning the role of more severe punishment was mixed.
虽然各国处理恐怖主义的方式不同,但欧洲和其他地方的刑事司法系统对待恐怖主义的方式与对待其他犯罪类似,警察、检察官、法官、法院和刑事系统分别履行调查、逮捕、指控、定罪和监督惩罚的类似职能。我们通过分析28个欧盟成员国16年来有关恐怖主义犯罪、逮捕、指控、定罪和量刑的数据,解决了对恐怖主义潜在威慑作用研究的缺乏问题。在多个规范中应用计数和动态面板数据模型,我们发现逮捕和惩罚的可能性增加与恐怖主义犯罪呈反比关系,而被指控个人的比率与恐怖主义犯罪的小幅增加有关。句子长度的结果不太清楚,但也表明了潜在的反作用。这些发现揭示了犯罪和恐怖主义在威慑作用方面的重叠,并对研究议程和政策讨论都有影响。
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引用次数: 0
Examining the impact of Melbourne’s 2020 111-day lockdown on parents and other vulnerable groups 研究墨尔本2020年111天的封锁对父母和其他弱势群体的影响。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01645-2
Zero-COVID-19 strategies used hard lockdown to save human lives. Our study used modern policy evaluation tools and high-quality longitudinal, nationally representative data and found that the lives saved during Melbourne’s hard 111-day lockdown came at a high cost to parents of young dependent children, and in particular mothers, as the lockdown continued.
零-COVID-19 "战略利用严密封锁来拯救生命。我们的研究使用了现代政策评估工具和高质量的纵向全国代表性数据,发现在墨尔本 111 天的严密封锁期间,受抚养幼儿的父母,尤其是母亲,在封锁持续期间付出了高昂的代价才挽救了生命。
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引用次数: 0
Trait correlations in human couples 人类伴侣的特质相关性。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01673-y
Yayouk E. Willems, Laurel Raffington
People tend to form partnerships with others who are similar to themselves. A new meta-analysis examines correlations between human mating partners, and finds correlations across nearly every trait studied. Education, social attitudes and substance use showed the highest correlations. Effect sizes differed between studies, suggesting potential cultural contingency.
人们倾向于与与自己相似的人建立伙伴关系。一项新的荟萃分析研究了人类交配伙伴之间的相关性,发现几乎所有研究的特征都存在相关性。教育、社会态度和药物使用的相关性最高。不同研究的效应大小不同,这表明可能存在文化偶然性。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Nature Human Behaviour
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