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Emergent analogical reasoning in large language models 大型语言模型中的紧急类比推理。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01659-w
Taylor Webb, Keith J. Holyoak, Hongjing Lu
The recent advent of large language models has reinvigorated debate over whether human cognitive capacities might emerge in such generic models given sufficient training data. Of particular interest is the ability of these models to reason about novel problems zero-shot, without any direct training. In human cognition, this capacity is closely tied to an ability to reason by analogy. Here we performed a direct comparison between human reasoners and a large language model (the text-davinci-003 variant of Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT)-3) on a range of analogical tasks, including a non-visual matrix reasoning task based on the rule structure of Raven’s Standard Progressive Matrices. We found that GPT-3 displayed a surprisingly strong capacity for abstract pattern induction, matching or even surpassing human capabilities in most settings; preliminary tests of GPT-4 indicated even better performance. Our results indicate that large language models such as GPT-3 have acquired an emergent ability to find zero-shot solutions to a broad range of analogy problems. Webb et al. show that new artificial intelligence language models, such as Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3, are able to solve analogical reasoning problems at a human-like level of performance.
最近大型语言模型的出现重新引发了关于在给定足够训练数据的情况下,人类认知能力是否会在此类通用模型中出现的争论。特别令人感兴趣的是这些模型在没有任何直接训练的情况下推理零样本新问题的能力。在人类认知中,这种能力与通过类比推理的能力密切相关。在这里,我们对人类推理机和大型语言模型(生成预训练转换器(GPT)-3的text-davinci-003变体)在一系列类比任务上进行了直接比较,包括基于Raven标准渐进矩阵规则结构的非视觉矩阵推理任务。我们发现,GPT-3在大多数情况下表现出惊人的强大抽象模式诱导能力,匹配甚至超越了人类的能力;GPT-4的初步测试表明性能甚至更好。我们的结果表明,像GPT-3这样的大型语言模型已经获得了为广泛的类比问题找到零样本解决方案的紧急能力。
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引用次数: 0
Mass gatherings for political expression had no discernible association with the local course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA in 2020 and 2021 2020年和2021年,为表达政治而举行的大规模集会与美国当地新冠肺炎大流行的进程没有明显关联。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01654-1
Eric Feltham, Laura Forastiere, Marcus Alexander, Nicholas A. Christakis
Epidemic disease can spread during mass gatherings. We assessed the impact of a type of mass gathering about which comprehensive data were available on the local-area trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic. Here we examined five types of political event in 2020 and 2021: the US primary elections, the US Senate special election in Georgia, the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Donald Trump’s political rallies and the Black Lives Matter protests. Our study period encompassed over 700 such mass gatherings during multiple phases of the pandemic. We used data from the 48 contiguous states, representing 3,108 counties, and we implemented a novel extension of a recently developed non-parametric, generalized difference-in-difference estimator with a (high-quality) matching procedure for panel data to estimate the average effect of the gatherings on local mortality and other outcomes. There were no statistically significant increases in cases, deaths or a measure of epidemic transmissibility (Rt) in a 40-day period following large-scale political activities. We estimated small and statistically non-significant effects, corresponding to an average difference of −0.0567 deaths (95% CI = −0.319, 0.162) and 8.275 cases (95% CI = −1.383, 20.7) on each day for counties that held mass gatherings for political expression compared to matched control counties. In sum, there is no statistical evidence of a material increase in local COVID-19 deaths, cases or transmissibility after mass gatherings for political expression during the first 2 years of the pandemic in the USA. This may relate to the specific manner in which such activities are typically conducted. The authors show that political gatherings in the USA in 2021–2022 did not have any effect on COVID-19 case counts.
流行病可以在大规模集会期间传播。我们评估了一种大规模集会对新冠肺炎疫情本地区轨迹的影响,并获得了全面的数据。在这里,我们研究了2020年和2021年的五种类型的政治事件:美国初选、佐治亚州的美国参议院特别选举、新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州的州长选举、唐纳德·特朗普的政治集会和“黑人的命也是命”抗议活动。我们的研究涵盖了疫情多个阶段700多场此类大规模集会。我们使用了来自48个相邻州(代表3108个县)的数据,并对最近开发的非参数广义差分估计器进行了新的扩展,该估计器具有面板数据的(高质量)匹配程序,以估计集会对当地死亡率和其他结果的平均影响。在大规模政治活动后的40天内,病例、死亡人数或流行病传播性(Rt)指标没有统计学上的显著增加。我们估计了较小的、统计上不显著的影响,对应于-0.0567例死亡的平均差异(95%置信区间 = -0.319、0.162)和8.275例(95%可信区间 = -1.383,20.7)。总之,没有统计证据表明,在美国大流行的头两年,当地新冠肺炎死亡人数、病例或政治表达大规模集会后的传播性大幅增加。这可能与此类活动的具体开展方式有关。
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引用次数: 0
The challenges and prospects of brain-based prediction of behaviour 基于大脑的行为预测的挑战和前景。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01670-1
Jianxiao Wu, Jingwei Li, Simon B. Eickhoff, Dustin Scheinost, Sarah Genon
Relating individual brain patterns to behaviour is fundamental in system neuroscience. Recently, the predictive modelling approach has become increasingly popular, largely due to the recent availability of large open datasets and access to computational resources. This means that we can use machine learning models and interindividual differences at the brain level represented by neuroimaging features to predict interindividual differences in behavioural measures. By doing so, we could identify biomarkers and neural correlates in a data-driven fashion. Nevertheless, this budding field of neuroimaging-based predictive modelling is facing issues that may limit its potential applications. Here we review these existing challenges, as well as those that we anticipate as the field develops. We focus on the impacts of these challenges on brain-based predictions. We suggest potential solutions to address the resolvable challenges, while keeping in mind that some general and conceptual limitations may also underlie the predictive modelling approach. Wu et al. discuss the current and future challenges in the prediction of behavioural traits from brain data.
将个体大脑模式与行为联系起来是系统神经科学的基础。最近,预测建模方法变得越来越流行,这主要是由于最近可以获得大型开放数据集和计算资源。这意味着我们可以使用机器学习模型和以神经成像特征为代表的大脑层面的个体差异来预测行为测量的个体差异。通过这样做,我们可以以数据驱动的方式识别生物标志物和神经相关性。然而,这一新兴的基于神经成像的预测建模领域正面临着可能限制其潜在应用的问题。在这里,我们回顾了这些现有的挑战,以及随着该领域的发展,我们预期的挑战。我们关注这些挑战对基于大脑的预测的影响。我们提出了解决可解决挑战的潜在解决方案,同时要记住,预测建模方法也可能存在一些一般和概念上的局限性。
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引用次数: 4
COVID-19 is linked to changes in the time–space dimension of human mobility 新冠肺炎与人类流动的时空维度的变化有关。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01660-3
Clodomir Santana, Federico Botta, Hugo Barbosa, Filippo Privitera, Ronaldo Menezes, Riccardo Di Clemente
Socio-economic constructs and urban topology are crucial drivers of human mobility patterns. During the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, these patterns were reshaped in their components: the spatial dimension represented by the daily travelled distance, and the temporal dimension expressed as the synchronization time of commuting routines. Here, leveraging location-based data from de-identified mobile phone users, we observed that, during lockdowns restrictions, the decrease of spatial mobility is interwoven with the emergence of asynchronous mobility dynamics. The lifting of restriction in urban mobility allowed a faster recovery of the spatial dimension compared with the temporal one. Moreover, the recovery in mobility was different depending on urbanization levels and economic stratification. In rural and low-income areas, the spatial mobility dimension suffered a more considerable disruption when compared with urbanized and high-income areas. In contrast, the temporal dimension was more affected in urbanized and high-income areas than in rural and low-income areas. Studying human mobility during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the authors observe asynchronous temporal dynamics of people’s movements and compare this with spatial mobility changes.
社会经济结构和城市拓扑结构是人类流动模式的关键驱动因素。在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,这些模式在其组成部分被重塑:以每日旅行距离表示的空间维度和以通勤程序同步时间表示的时间维度。在这里,利用来自未识别手机用户的基于位置的数据,我们观察到,在封锁限制期间,空间移动性的减少与异步移动性的出现交织在一起。城市流动限制的解除使空间维度比时间维度更快地恢复。此外,流动性的恢复因城市化水平和经济分层而有所不同。在农村和低收入地区,与城市化和高收入地区相比,空间流动维度受到了更大的破坏。相比之下,城市化和高收入地区的时间维度比农村和低收入地区受到的影响更大。
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引用次数: 0
Leader–follower behavioural coordination and neural synchronization during intergroup conflict 群体间冲突中领导者与追随者的行为协调和神经同步。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01663-0
Hejing Zhang, Jiaxin Yang, Jun Ni, Carsten K. W. De Dreu, Yina Ma
Leaders can launch hostile attacks on out-groups and organize in-group defence. Whether groups settle the conflict in their favour depends, however, on whether followers align with leader’s initiatives. Yet how leader and followers coordinate during intergroup conflict remains unknown. Participants in small groups elected a leader and made costly contributions to intergroup conflict while dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) activity was simultaneously measured. Leaders were more sacrificial and their contribution influenced group survival to a greater extent during in-group defence than during out-group attacks. Leaders also had increased DLPFC activity when defending in-group, which predicted their comparatively strong contribution to conflict; followers reciprocated their leader’s initiatives the more their DLPFC activity synchronized with that of their leader. When launching attacks, however, leaders and followers aligned poorly at behavioural and neural levels, which explained why out-group attacks often failed. Our results provide a neurobehavioural account of leader–follower coordination during intergroup conflict and reveal leader–follower behavioural/neural alignment as pivotal for groups settling conflicts in their favour. Applying functional near-infrared spectroscopy hyperscanning in intergroup conflict, the authors provide evidence that leaders and followers show behavioural synchronization, as well as neural synchronization in the prefrontal cortex.
领导者可以对外部群体发起敌对攻击,也可以组织内部群体进行防御。然而,群体能否以对自己有利的方式解决冲突,取决于追随者是否与领导者的举措保持一致。然而,在群体间冲突中,领导者和追随者如何协调仍是未知数。在测量背外侧前额叶皮层(DLPFC)活动的同时,小组参与者选出了一名领导者,并在群体间冲突中做出了代价高昂的贡献。与外群体攻击相比,领导者在群内防御时更有牺牲精神,他们的贡献对群体生存的影响更大。领导者在保卫本群体时的前额叶皮质活动也会增加,这预示着他们对冲突的贡献相对较大;追随者的前额叶皮质活动与领导者的活动越同步,他们对领导者举措的回报就越大。然而,在发起攻击时,领导者和追随者在行为和神经水平上的一致性很差,这就解释了为什么向外攻击往往会失败。我们的研究结果从神经行为学角度解释了群体间冲突中领导者与追随者之间的协调问题,并揭示了领导者与追随者在行为和神经层面上的协调是群体解决冲突的关键。
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引用次数: 0
DNA insights into Neolithic society 通过 DNA 深入了解新石器时代社会
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-07-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01668-9
Kendra Sirak
Ancient DNA can inform reconstructions of prehistoric social organization, but most evidence comes from elite burial grounds. Rivollat et al. analyse ancient DNA and archaeological evidence from 94 individuals at a non-monumental graveyard in France: Gurgy ‘les Noisats’. Their results reveal a patrilocal community who buried relatives close to one another.
古代 DNA 可以为史前社会组织的重建提供信息,但大多数证据来自精英墓地。Rivollat 等人分析了法国一个非纪念性墓地中 94 人的古 DNA 和考古证据:Gurgy 'les Noisats'。他们的研究结果表明,这是一个父系族群,他们将亲属埋葬在彼此相近的地方。
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引用次数: 0
Scientific publishing has a language problem 科学出版存在语言问题
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01679-6
Science is international, but scientific publishing is dominated by English-language publications. This disproportionately benefits native or fluent English speakers. We want to take steps to address the imbalance this creates, and new technology may help.
科学是国际化的,但科学出版却以英语出版物为主。这使得以英语为母语或英语流利的人受益过多。我们希望采取措施解决这种不平衡现象,而新技术可能会有所帮助。
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引用次数: 0
Empowerment contributes to exploration behaviour in a creative video game 授权有助于创造性电子游戏中的探索行为。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01661-2
Franziska Brändle, Lena J. Stocks, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Samuel J. Gershman, Eric Schulz
Studies of human exploration frequently cast people as serendipitously stumbling upon good options. Yet these studies may not capture the richness of exploration strategies that people exhibit in more complex environments. Here we study behaviour in a large dataset of 29,493 players of the richly structured online game ‘Little Alchemy 2’. In this game, players start with four elements, which they can combine to create up to 720 complex objects. We find that players are driven not only by external reward signals, such as an attempt to produce successful outcomes, but also by an intrinsic motivation to create objects that empower them to create even more objects. We find that this drive for empowerment is eliminated when playing a game variant that lacks recognizable semantics, indicating that people use their knowledge about the world and its possibilities to guide their exploration. Our results suggest that the drive for empowerment may be a potent source of intrinsic motivation in richly structured domains, particularly those that lack explicit reward signals. The authors show that in a creative setting people make choices partially based on how empowering their choices are.
对人类探索的研究经常让人们误以为偶然发现了好的选择。然而,这些研究可能无法捕捉到人们在更复杂的环境中表现出的丰富的探索策略。在这里,我们研究了一个由29493名结构丰富的在线游戏《小炼金2》玩家组成的大型数据集中的行为。在这个游戏中,玩家从四个元素开始,他们可以将这些元素组合起来创建多达720个复杂的对象。我们发现,玩家不仅受到外部奖励信号的驱动,比如试图产生成功的结果,还受到创造物体的内在动机的驱动,这种动机使他们能够创造更多的物体。我们发现,当玩一个缺乏可识别语义的游戏变体时,这种赋权的动力就消失了,这表明人们利用他们对世界及其可能性的了解来指导他们的探索。我们的研究结果表明,在结构丰富的领域,特别是那些缺乏明确奖励信号的领域,对赋权的驱动可能是内在动机的有力来源。
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引用次数: 0
A systematic review of the strength of evidence for the most commonly recommended happiness strategies in mainstream media 对主流媒体中最常用的幸福策略的证据强度进行系统审查。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-07-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01651-4
Dunigan Folk, Elizabeth Dunn
We conducted a systematic review of the evidence underlying some of the most widely recommended strategies for increasing happiness. By coding media articles on happiness, we first identified the five most commonly recommended strategies: expressing gratitude, enhancing sociability, exercising, practising mindfulness/meditation and increasing nature exposure. Next, we conducted a systematic search of the published scientific literature. We identified well-powered, pre-registered experiments testing the effects of these strategies on any aspect of subjective wellbeing (that is, positive affect, negative affect and life satisfaction) in non-clinical samples. A total of 57 studies were included. Our review suggests that a strong scientific foundation is lacking for some of the most commonly recommended happiness strategies. As the effectiveness of these strategies remains an open question, there is an urgent need for well-powered, pre-registered studies investigating strategies for promoting happiness. A systematic review examines the happiness-promoting strategies most commonly recommended in the media. This review suggests that the scientific evidence underlying some of these strategies, such as physical exercise, is weak.
我们对一些最广泛推荐的增加幸福感的策略的证据进行了系统的审查。通过对媒体上关于幸福的文章进行编码,我们首先确定了五种最常见的推荐策略:表达感激之情、增强社交能力、锻炼身体、练习正念/冥想和增加自然接触。接下来,我们对已发表的科学文献进行了系统的检索。我们在非临床样本中确定了强有力的、预先注册的实验,测试这些策略对主观幸福感的任何方面(即积极情感、消极情感和生活满意度)的影响。共纳入57项研究。我们的综述表明,一些最常见的幸福策略缺乏强有力的科学基础。由于这些策略的有效性仍然是一个悬而未决的问题,因此迫切需要强有力的、预先注册的研究来调查促进幸福的策略。
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引用次数: 3
AI will never convey the essence of human empathy 人工智能永远不会传达人类同理心的本质。
IF 29.9 1区 心理学 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-07-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01675-w
Anat Perry
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Nature Human Behaviour
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