Groundwater ingress and the associated hydrostatic pressure pose critical challenges to the structural integrity of deep-buried underwater tunnels. Although numerical methods are widely employed to evaluate these coupled effects, existing analytical solutions often oversimplify the hydraulic boundary conditions or neglect the penetrative nature of seepage-induced body forces within the lining. To address these limitations, this study develops a closed-form analytical framework for the coupled seepage–stress analysis of deep-buried circular tunnels under semi-infinite hydraulic boundary conditions. The method of images is used to satisfy the free-surface constraint, while the seepage pressure gradient is incorporated into the mechanical equilibrium equations as a volumetric load through the stress function approach. This formulation explicitly captures the hydraulic barrier effect induced by permeability contrast between the lining and the surrounding medium. Parametric analyses demonstrate that lining permeability is the dominant factor controlling the structural response: decreasing permeability effectively suppresses inflow but simultaneously amplifies the external hydraulic head and circumferential stress at the inner tunnel wall. For the benchmark configuration considered, a conditional optimal permeability window is identified that balances inflow mitigation and structural safety. The proposed framework enables this window to be recalibrated for project-specific geometric and hydrogeological conditions, thereby providing a generalizable basis for watertightness-oriented design and vulnerability assessment of underwater tunnel linings.
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