Mid-latitude cyclones are “parent storms” of various weather hazards and contribute significantly to the moisture and heat intrusion into the Arctic. Anthropogenic aerosols are known to affect cyclone intensities and their associated precipitation, but their impacts on cyclone tracks remain largely unclear. Here, based on both observational data diagnosis and global climate model simulations, we show that anthropogenic aerosols over East Asia can lead to a significant poleward drift of mid-latitude cyclone tracks in winter over the North Pacific. By suppressing precipitation in the southeastern sector of cyclones and enhancing it in the northeastern sector, aerosols increase the positive potential vorticity tendency northeast of the cyclones, thereby driving their poleward drift. This might give rise to more cyclones migrating into the Arctic over the North Pacific, reducing the Arctic sea ice extent in recent decades. In the future, efforts to reduce aerosol emissions in East Asia could potentially mitigate the poleward migration of the storm track driven by global warming.
{"title":"Anthropogenic aerosols can shape the winter mid-latitude cyclone tracks","authors":"Dianbin Cao, Dongze Xu, Yanluan Lin, Yi Deng, Xuelong Chen, Qiang Zhang, Meng Gao, Xu Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01377-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01377-w","url":null,"abstract":"Mid-latitude cyclones are “parent storms” of various weather hazards and contribute significantly to the moisture and heat intrusion into the Arctic. Anthropogenic aerosols are known to affect cyclone intensities and their associated precipitation, but their impacts on cyclone tracks remain largely unclear. Here, based on both observational data diagnosis and global climate model simulations, we show that anthropogenic aerosols over East Asia can lead to a significant poleward drift of mid-latitude cyclone tracks in winter over the North Pacific. By suppressing precipitation in the southeastern sector of cyclones and enhancing it in the northeastern sector, aerosols increase the positive potential vorticity tendency northeast of the cyclones, thereby driving their poleward drift. This might give rise to more cyclones migrating into the Arctic over the North Pacific, reducing the Arctic sea ice extent in recent decades. In the future, efforts to reduce aerosol emissions in East Asia could potentially mitigate the poleward migration of the storm track driven by global warming.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"219 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147496702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-18DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01380-1
Hisu Kim, Jihun Ryu, Seok-Woo Son, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Hyungjun Kim, Jin-Ho Yoon
With the rapid development of deep learning weather prediction (DLWP) models like GenCast, rigorous evaluation of their physical consistency is essential. This study investigates the dynamical fidelity of GenCast against ECMWF IFS-HRES and IFS-ENS using comprehensive kinetic energy (KE) and difference kinetic energy (DKE) spectra over 2021. Unlike the physically consistent error growth in IFS-ENS, GenCast exhibits weak planetary-scale growth and a persistent, flattened KE tail at high wavenumbers starting from the first forecast step. These mesoscale artifacts persist across multiple GenCast variants and AIFS-ENS, indicating a broader challenge for noise-conditioned generation. Helmholtz decomposition further reveals white-noise-like variance rather than balanced dynamics. Spatially, weak interactions between large-scale and mesoscale wind fields suggest a misrepresentation of topography-flow interactions. Furthermore, analyses of KE gradient (∣∇KE∣) revealed that GenCast fails to reproduce the sharp, filamentary structures, instead generating broad, isotropic, and noisy patterns. These findings suggest that current noise injection mechanisms in DLWPs produce noisy artifacts mimicking variance without reproducing realistic error growth physics. Improving these mechanisms is vital for developing physically consistent DLWPs.
{"title":"A spectral test of the butterfly effect and physical consistency in the diffusion-based GenCast’s ensembles","authors":"Hisu Kim, Jihun Ryu, Seok-Woo Son, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Hyungjun Kim, Jin-Ho Yoon","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01380-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01380-1","url":null,"abstract":"With the rapid development of deep learning weather prediction (DLWP) models like GenCast, rigorous evaluation of their physical consistency is essential. This study investigates the dynamical fidelity of GenCast against ECMWF IFS-HRES and IFS-ENS using comprehensive kinetic energy (KE) and difference kinetic energy (DKE) spectra over 2021. Unlike the physically consistent error growth in IFS-ENS, GenCast exhibits weak planetary-scale growth and a persistent, flattened KE tail at high wavenumbers starting from the first forecast step. These mesoscale artifacts persist across multiple GenCast variants and AIFS-ENS, indicating a broader challenge for noise-conditioned generation. Helmholtz decomposition further reveals white-noise-like variance rather than balanced dynamics. Spatially, weak interactions between large-scale and mesoscale wind fields suggest a misrepresentation of topography-flow interactions. Furthermore, analyses of KE gradient (∣∇KE∣) revealed that GenCast fails to reproduce the sharp, filamentary structures, instead generating broad, isotropic, and noisy patterns. These findings suggest that current noise injection mechanisms in DLWPs produce noisy artifacts mimicking variance without reproducing realistic error growth physics. Improving these mechanisms is vital for developing physically consistent DLWPs.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147496703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-17DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01379-8
Wei Tao, Tzung-May Fu, Junfeng Liu, Hang Su, Yafang Cheng, Ruijing Ni, Aoxing Zhang, Yixin Guo, Tianci Jiang, Jiajia Mo, Xiaolin Wang, Huizhong Shen, Min Shao
Background ozone (O3), defined as O3 originating from transboundary transport and domestic natural precursors, has traditionally been viewed as largely unresponsive to domestic anthropogenic emissions, representing an uncontrollable baseline for a nation’s O3 pollution levels. However, this paradigm overlooks the chemical interactions between the cycled oxidants from transboundary O3 and domestic precursors. Here, we developed a novel expanded odd oxygen (Oy) tagged modeling framework to explicitly track the sources and full photochemical cycling of O3 and its radical reservoirs during a typical autumn O3 pollution episode in China. Our results demonstrated that interactions between transboundary O3 and domestic precursors accounted for 44% to 49% of surface O3 levels across Eastern China during the study period. Transboundary O3 played a dual photochemical role, simultaneously promoting O3 formation by serving as a major source of ROx radicals, while also suppressing the ozone-forming potential of domestic precursors through ROx removal and modulation of the OH turnover rate. Consequently, the interplay between background and domestic anthropogenic sources fundamentally shaped the ambient O3 formation regime. This work challenges the prevailing view of a chemically static background, redefining the “controllable” portion of O3 pollution and necessitating a reassessment of mitigation strategies from regional to intercontinental scales.
{"title":"Complex interplay between transboundary ozone and domestic emissions shapes surface ozone pollution in China","authors":"Wei Tao, Tzung-May Fu, Junfeng Liu, Hang Su, Yafang Cheng, Ruijing Ni, Aoxing Zhang, Yixin Guo, Tianci Jiang, Jiajia Mo, Xiaolin Wang, Huizhong Shen, Min Shao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01379-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01379-8","url":null,"abstract":"Background ozone (O3), defined as O3 originating from transboundary transport and domestic natural precursors, has traditionally been viewed as largely unresponsive to domestic anthropogenic emissions, representing an uncontrollable baseline for a nation’s O3 pollution levels. However, this paradigm overlooks the chemical interactions between the cycled oxidants from transboundary O3 and domestic precursors. Here, we developed a novel expanded odd oxygen (Oy) tagged modeling framework to explicitly track the sources and full photochemical cycling of O3 and its radical reservoirs during a typical autumn O3 pollution episode in China. Our results demonstrated that interactions between transboundary O3 and domestic precursors accounted for 44% to 49% of surface O3 levels across Eastern China during the study period. Transboundary O3 played a dual photochemical role, simultaneously promoting O3 formation by serving as a major source of ROx radicals, while also suppressing the ozone-forming potential of domestic precursors through ROx removal and modulation of the OH turnover rate. Consequently, the interplay between background and domestic anthropogenic sources fundamentally shaped the ambient O3 formation regime. This work challenges the prevailing view of a chemically static background, redefining the “controllable” portion of O3 pollution and necessitating a reassessment of mitigation strategies from regional to intercontinental scales.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"814 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147464778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-14DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01370-3
Xiaoyun Wang, Wansuo Duan, Yuntao Wei
Forecasting the eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC) remains a significant challenge, often characterized by a rapid decline in prediction skill—a phenomenon known as the Maritime Continent prediction barrier (MC-PB). While conventional perspectives have predominantly attributed the MC-PB to model deficiencies, this study demonstrates that initial errors can also trigger a pronounced MC-PB. Furthermore, the results reveal that initial moisture errors are the dominant factor driving the growth of MJO forecast errors. By employing the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) method, we identify two distinct types of initial moisture errors that are particularly prone to inducing the MC-PB for different MJO events. These initial errors exhibit distinct spatial patterns and, by modulating westward-propagating equatorial Rossby (ER) waves, disrupt MJO propagation across the MC via two physical pathways. Specifically, one type significantly decelerates MJO propagation, while the other weakens MJO intensity, both ultimately leading to the MC-PB. All these results suggest that optimizing initialization schemes provides a novel pathway for effectively alleviating the MC-PB effect and greatly improving MJO prediction level.
{"title":"A novel insight into MJO predictability: initial errors can trigger a prediction barrier over the maritime continent","authors":"Xiaoyun Wang, Wansuo Duan, Yuntao Wei","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01370-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01370-3","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting the eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC) remains a significant challenge, often characterized by a rapid decline in prediction skill—a phenomenon known as the Maritime Continent prediction barrier (MC-PB). While conventional perspectives have predominantly attributed the MC-PB to model deficiencies, this study demonstrates that initial errors can also trigger a pronounced MC-PB. Furthermore, the results reveal that initial moisture errors are the dominant factor driving the growth of MJO forecast errors. By employing the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) method, we identify two distinct types of initial moisture errors that are particularly prone to inducing the MC-PB for different MJO events. These initial errors exhibit distinct spatial patterns and, by modulating westward-propagating equatorial Rossby (ER) waves, disrupt MJO propagation across the MC via two physical pathways. Specifically, one type significantly decelerates MJO propagation, while the other weakens MJO intensity, both ultimately leading to the MC-PB. All these results suggest that optimizing initialization schemes provides a novel pathway for effectively alleviating the MC-PB effect and greatly improving MJO prediction level.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147454767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-13DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01367-y
Xiu Su, Yuemin Wu, Zhongze Wu, Yitian Long, Yichao Cao, Yue Liao, Xi Lin, Jun Long, Shuo Jiang, Shan You, Chang Xu
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures that threaten marine ecosystems and regional economies. Reliable and efficient forecasting with local details across multiple temporal scales is crucial to mitigate their negative impacts. However, current dynamical methods are computationally intensive and struggle to capture local stochastic climate anomalies, while statistical methods fail to explicitly model atmospheric interactions governing MHW evolution. We present MARINA, a multi-temporal resolution forecasting model that integrates physical insights into a statistical framework, enabling skillful and efficient MHW forecasting. To effectively train MARINA, we built MT-MHW, a multi-temporal resolution MHW dataset comprising 3.22 million data points and incorporating key meteorological variables from multiple weather stations. Together, MT-MHW enables MARINA to model the complex interactions among meteorological factors that govern MHW evolution across multiple timescales in regional areas. MARINA facilitates the low-cost integration of dynamical knowledge into statistical models, enabling detailed MHW forecasting across previously unavailable temporal scales and enhancing region-specific disaster prevention.
{"title":"A lightweight physics-aware framework for multi-scale marine heatwaves forecasting","authors":"Xiu Su, Yuemin Wu, Zhongze Wu, Yitian Long, Yichao Cao, Yue Liao, Xi Lin, Jun Long, Shuo Jiang, Shan You, Chang Xu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01367-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01367-y","url":null,"abstract":"Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures that threaten marine ecosystems and regional economies. Reliable and efficient forecasting with local details across multiple temporal scales is crucial to mitigate their negative impacts. However, current dynamical methods are computationally intensive and struggle to capture local stochastic climate anomalies, while statistical methods fail to explicitly model atmospheric interactions governing MHW evolution. We present MARINA, a multi-temporal resolution forecasting model that integrates physical insights into a statistical framework, enabling skillful and efficient MHW forecasting. To effectively train MARINA, we built MT-MHW, a multi-temporal resolution MHW dataset comprising 3.22 million data points and incorporating key meteorological variables from multiple weather stations. Together, MT-MHW enables MARINA to model the complex interactions among meteorological factors that govern MHW evolution across multiple timescales in regional areas. MARINA facilitates the low-cost integration of dynamical knowledge into statistical models, enabling detailed MHW forecasting across previously unavailable temporal scales and enhancing region-specific disaster prevention.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147454763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-09DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01372-1
Ruyu Gan, Kaiming Hu, Qi Liu, Gang Huang, Suqin Zhang
Day-to-day temperature variability (DTDT) quantifies short-term temperature fluctuations and indicates weather-scale variability. Using idealized carbon dioxide removal (CDR) experiments, we assess the response asymmetry of DTDT over Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes under symmetric CO₂ ramp-up (RU) and ramp-down (RD) pathways. DTDT decreases with increasing CO₂ and remains strongly suppressed for about two decades after the CO₂ peak. Comparing CO₂ RU and RD periods with identical CO₂ concentrations, DTDT is systematically weaker during RD than during RU, indicating a pronounced response asymmetry to CO₂ forcing. This asymmetry is strongest in boreal winter and weaker in boreal summer. Using a decomposition of the thermodynamic energy equation, we find that the response asymmetry is primarily associated with weakened near-surface horizontal temperature advection, with additional contribution from changes in the variability of net surface radiative forcing. These results highlight the necessity of considering asymmetric and delayed recovery of short-term temperature variability in climate mitigation.
{"title":"Asymmetric response of day-to-day temperature variability to CO₂ forcing over Northern Hemisphere mid–high latitudes","authors":"Ruyu Gan, Kaiming Hu, Qi Liu, Gang Huang, Suqin Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01372-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01372-1","url":null,"abstract":"Day-to-day temperature variability (DTDT) quantifies short-term temperature fluctuations and indicates weather-scale variability. Using idealized carbon dioxide removal (CDR) experiments, we assess the response asymmetry of DTDT over Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes under symmetric CO₂ ramp-up (RU) and ramp-down (RD) pathways. DTDT decreases with increasing CO₂ and remains strongly suppressed for about two decades after the CO₂ peak. Comparing CO₂ RU and RD periods with identical CO₂ concentrations, DTDT is systematically weaker during RD than during RU, indicating a pronounced response asymmetry to CO₂ forcing. This asymmetry is strongest in boreal winter and weaker in boreal summer. Using a decomposition of the thermodynamic energy equation, we find that the response asymmetry is primarily associated with weakened near-surface horizontal temperature advection, with additional contribution from changes in the variability of net surface radiative forcing. These results highlight the necessity of considering asymmetric and delayed recovery of short-term temperature variability in climate mitigation.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147381760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) exhibits a pronounced temporal offset between atmospheric warming and subsurface thermal changes, yet its characteristic timescales, spatial patterns, and environmental drivers remain poorly quantified. This complicates the interpretation of climate forcing and ground temperature relationships, increasing uncertainty in projections of permafrost degradation and carbon feedbacks. Here, we combine in-situ records from 54 boreholes (2001–2020) with a high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset (TPMFD) to characterize the apparent timescale of permafrost thermal memory on the TP. Analyses reveal a median multi-year to decadal offset of approximately 8–11 years for active layer thickness and temperatures at the permafrost table and at 10–15 m depth. This timescale shortens to 6–8 years in warm, humid southeastern margins and lengthens to 12–15 years in cold, arid northwestern interiors. Climatic factors explain 31–51% of its spatial variance, with air pressure and precipitation serving as dominant statistical contributors, reflecting large-scale climatic background conditions, while topography and soil moisture exert local controls. These offsets represent an emergent statistical timescale associated with cumulative thermal memory and energy integration in the permafrost system, indicating that ongoing permafrost degradation may continue even if near‑surface warming moderates.
{"title":"Decadal-scale thermal memory of permafrost and climatic and topographic modulation on the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Ziteng Fu, Luyang Wang, Guanli Jiang, Xinyu Men, Wenyan Du, Yuzhong Yang, Siru Gao, Zhongqiong Zhang, Qingbai Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01368-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01368-x","url":null,"abstract":"Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) exhibits a pronounced temporal offset between atmospheric warming and subsurface thermal changes, yet its characteristic timescales, spatial patterns, and environmental drivers remain poorly quantified. This complicates the interpretation of climate forcing and ground temperature relationships, increasing uncertainty in projections of permafrost degradation and carbon feedbacks. Here, we combine in-situ records from 54 boreholes (2001–2020) with a high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset (TPMFD) to characterize the apparent timescale of permafrost thermal memory on the TP. Analyses reveal a median multi-year to decadal offset of approximately 8–11 years for active layer thickness and temperatures at the permafrost table and at 10–15 m depth. This timescale shortens to 6–8 years in warm, humid southeastern margins and lengthens to 12–15 years in cold, arid northwestern interiors. Climatic factors explain 31–51% of its spatial variance, with air pressure and precipitation serving as dominant statistical contributors, reflecting large-scale climatic background conditions, while topography and soil moisture exert local controls. These offsets represent an emergent statistical timescale associated with cumulative thermal memory and energy integration in the permafrost system, indicating that ongoing permafrost degradation may continue even if near‑surface warming moderates.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147371116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-06DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01332-9
Adama Badiane, Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Abdou Lahat Dieng, Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall, Amadou Thierno Gaye, Saidou Moustapha Sall
The interannual variability of tropical Atlantic cyclones (TCs) has been linked to ENSO and the Atlantic Meridional Mode. Recent studies have also highlighted the role of the equatorial Atlantic in influencing Cape Verde TCs. However, the stationarity of these teleconnections has not yet been thoroughly examined. In this work, running correlations between the anomalous frequency of TCs originating in the Cape Verde region and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), reveal a shift in recent decades. Although the overall frequency of Atlantic TCs has increased since the 2000’s, changes in atmospheric and oceanic background conditions have weakened the influence of SSTs on Cape Verde TCs. Furthermore, our assessment of eddy kinetic energy as an indicator of African easterly wave activity suggests that, in the context of global warming, the predictive power of sea surface temperatures may be diminished.
{"title":"Changes in the impact of tropical basin interactions on Cape Verde tropical cyclogenesis","authors":"Adama Badiane, Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Abdou Lahat Dieng, Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall, Amadou Thierno Gaye, Saidou Moustapha Sall","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01332-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01332-9","url":null,"abstract":"The interannual variability of tropical Atlantic cyclones (TCs) has been linked to ENSO and the Atlantic Meridional Mode. Recent studies have also highlighted the role of the equatorial Atlantic in influencing Cape Verde TCs. However, the stationarity of these teleconnections has not yet been thoroughly examined. In this work, running correlations between the anomalous frequency of TCs originating in the Cape Verde region and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), reveal a shift in recent decades. Although the overall frequency of Atlantic TCs has increased since the 2000’s, changes in atmospheric and oceanic background conditions have weakened the influence of SSTs on Cape Verde TCs. Furthermore, our assessment of eddy kinetic energy as an indicator of African easterly wave activity suggests that, in the context of global warming, the predictive power of sea surface temperatures may be diminished.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147371118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-06DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01366-z
Tao Tang, Wenqiang Shen, Jiaolan Fu, Ping He, Hao Qian, Ling Luo
Improving short-range forecasts of heavy rainfall remains a challenge. In recent years, deep-learning-based methods have been increasingly explored for post-processing precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, but their performances are constrained by the non-negative and heavy-tailed nature of rainfall. Mainstream studies tried to solve this problem by redesigning loss functions or constructing hybrid models, yet they struggled to achieve both simplicity and transferability. Here, we show that the biases between NWP forecasts and observations in heavy rainfall events follow an approximately Gaussian distribution. Accordingly, this study trains a multi-task U-Net that uses precipitation biases as the target. This bias-targeted strategy produces stable and substantial enhancements in short-range heavy rainfall forecasts, with threat score improvements exceeding 21% across four in five regions of China. The findings highlight the critical role of target selection in deep-learning-based post-processing and provide a simple and effective pathway for advancing heavy rainfall forecasts.
{"title":"Bias-targeted deep learning enhances short-range heavy rainfall forecasts","authors":"Tao Tang, Wenqiang Shen, Jiaolan Fu, Ping He, Hao Qian, Ling Luo","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01366-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01366-z","url":null,"abstract":"Improving short-range forecasts of heavy rainfall remains a challenge. In recent years, deep-learning-based methods have been increasingly explored for post-processing precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, but their performances are constrained by the non-negative and heavy-tailed nature of rainfall. Mainstream studies tried to solve this problem by redesigning loss functions or constructing hybrid models, yet they struggled to achieve both simplicity and transferability. Here, we show that the biases between NWP forecasts and observations in heavy rainfall events follow an approximately Gaussian distribution. Accordingly, this study trains a multi-task U-Net that uses precipitation biases as the target. This bias-targeted strategy produces stable and substantial enhancements in short-range heavy rainfall forecasts, with threat score improvements exceeding 21% across four in five regions of China. The findings highlight the critical role of target selection in deep-learning-based post-processing and provide a simple and effective pathway for advancing heavy rainfall forecasts.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"63 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147371129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-04DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01364-1
Yan Zhou, Rui Li, Hongwei Zhao, Chun Zhao, Peng Zhang, Lin Chen, Qiong Wu, Yanluan Lin, Yunfei Fu, Yu Wang, Renjun Zhou, Lei Zhong, Xuanye Xu
The relative roles of the Himalayan orography and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) circulation in Tibetan Plateau (TP) precipitation remain contentious, yet numerical simulations exhibit substantial uncertainties due to extreme topographic gradients. Conventional satellites capture only exterior cloud properties or precipitation particle quantification, missing cloud-internal heating and updrafts. Using a novel satellite retrieval, we resolve the vertical structure of latent heating (LH) within precipitating clouds along the Himalayan slopes, offering new insight into precipitation drivers in this critical region. Satellite observations show that in spring, the altitude of peak latent heat (APLH) follows the southern slope topography, reflecting strong orographic control. Model results reveal that surface sensible heating below 2 km and orographic uplift above 2 km together enhance vertical motion and precipitation. In summer, however, the APLH stabilizes near 6 km across the southern Plateau, pointing to diminished local forcing and dominant large-scale monsoon control. The SASM supplies warm, moist air via mid-tropospheric moisture transport, bypassing terrain lifting and surface heating. These findings reveal a terrain-monsoon “seesaw” in Himalayan cloud-precipitation processes, characterized by a seasonal shift in dominance from local orographic forcing before the onset of the SASM to large-scale monsoonal circulation after the onset. This perspective provides broader insights into mountain-monsoon water cycle interactions worldwide.
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