Pub Date : 2024-11-07DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00822-y
Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Thomas Caton Harrison, Caroline R. Holmes, Hua Lu, Patrick Martineau, Tony Phillips
In this study, available large ensemble datasets in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive were used to provide the first multi-variate overview of the evolution of extreme seasons over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries following medium-to-high radiative forcing scenarios. The results show significant differences between simulated changes in background mean climate and changes in low (10th percentile) and high (90th percentile) extreme seasons. Regional winter warming is most pronounced for cold extremes. In summer, there are more pronounced increases in high extremes in precipitation and westerly wind during the ozone hole formation period (late 20th century), affecting coastal regions and, in particular, the Antarctic Peninsula. At midlatitudes, there is a reduction in the range of summer season wind extremes. Suggested mechanisms for these differences are provided relating to sea ice retreat and westerly jet position.
{"title":"Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change","authors":"Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Thomas Caton Harrison, Caroline R. Holmes, Hua Lu, Patrick Martineau, Tony Phillips","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00822-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00822-y","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, available large ensemble datasets in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive were used to provide the first multi-variate overview of the evolution of extreme seasons over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries following medium-to-high radiative forcing scenarios. The results show significant differences between simulated changes in background mean climate and changes in low (10th percentile) and high (90th percentile) extreme seasons. Regional winter warming is most pronounced for cold extremes. In summer, there are more pronounced increases in high extremes in precipitation and westerly wind during the ozone hole formation period (late 20th century), affecting coastal regions and, in particular, the Antarctic Peninsula. At midlatitudes, there is a reduction in the range of summer season wind extremes. Suggested mechanisms for these differences are provided relating to sea ice retreat and westerly jet position.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00822-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142594923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-07DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00827-7
Wei Zhang, Baoqiang Xiang, Kai-Chih Tseng, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Lucas Harris, Tom Delworth, Ben Kirtman
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are characterized by intense lower tropospheric plumes of moisture transport that are frequently responsible for midlatitude wind and precipitation extremes. The prediction of ARs at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales is currently at a low level of skill, reflecting a need to improve our understanding of their underlying sources of predictability. Based on 20 year hindcast experiments from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s SPEAR S2S forecast system, we evaluate the S2S prediction skill of AR activities in the northern winter. Higher forecast skill is detected for high-frequency AR activities (3–7 days/week) compared to low-frequency AR activities (1–2 days/week), even though the occurrence rate of high-frequency ARs exceeds that of low-frequency ARs. For the first time, we have applied the Average Predictability Time technique to the SPEAR system to identify the three most predictable modes of AR in the North Pacific sector. These modes can be attributed to the influences of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Arctic Oscillation. S2S AR forecast skill in western United States is modulated by various phases of large-scale variability. This study highlights potential windows of opportunity for operational S2S AR forecasting.
大气河流（ARs）的特点是对流层下部强烈的水汽输送羽流，经常造成中纬度的极端风和降水。目前，亚季节到季节（S2S）时间尺度的大气河流预测技术水平较低，这反映出我们需要提高对其潜在可预测性来源的认识。根据地球物理流体动力学实验室 SPEAR S2S 预报系统的 20 年后测实验，我们评估了北方冬季 AR 活动的 S2S 预报技能。与低频 AR 活动（1-2 天/周）相比，高频 AR 活动（3-7 天/周）的预报技能更高，尽管高频 AR 的发生率超过了低频 AR。我们首次将平均可预测时间技术应用于 SPEAR 系统，以确定北太平洋扇区 AR 的三种最可预测模式。这些模式可归因于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动、北美太平洋模式和北极涛动的影响。美国西部的 S2S AR 预报技能受不同阶段大尺度变率的影响。这项研究强调了实用 S2S 变率预报的潜在机会窗口。
{"title":"Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Winter","authors":"Wei Zhang, Baoqiang Xiang, Kai-Chih Tseng, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Lucas Harris, Tom Delworth, Ben Kirtman","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00827-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00827-7","url":null,"abstract":"Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are characterized by intense lower tropospheric plumes of moisture transport that are frequently responsible for midlatitude wind and precipitation extremes. The prediction of ARs at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales is currently at a low level of skill, reflecting a need to improve our understanding of their underlying sources of predictability. Based on 20 year hindcast experiments from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s SPEAR S2S forecast system, we evaluate the S2S prediction skill of AR activities in the northern winter. Higher forecast skill is detected for high-frequency AR activities (3–7 days/week) compared to low-frequency AR activities (1–2 days/week), even though the occurrence rate of high-frequency ARs exceeds that of low-frequency ARs. For the first time, we have applied the Average Predictability Time technique to the SPEAR system to identify the three most predictable modes of AR in the North Pacific sector. These modes can be attributed to the influences of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Arctic Oscillation. S2S AR forecast skill in western United States is modulated by various phases of large-scale variability. This study highlights potential windows of opportunity for operational S2S AR forecasting.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00827-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142594924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-06DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00823-x
Jie Hu, Jianlong Li, Narcisse Tsona Tchinda, Yaru Song, Minglan Xu, Kun Li, Lin Du
The uncertainty regarding the correlation between sea spray aerosol (SSA) formation and sea surface temperature (SST) hinders the accurate estimation of SSA’s impact on global climate. Here, we developed a temperature-controlled plunging SSA simulation tank to investigate the impact of SST on SSA formation from two perspectives: SSA particle size distribution and organic enrichment. Our findings show that SSA particle size decreases with decreasing SST, as exhibited by an increase in SSA within Aitken mode and a decrease in SSA within accumulation and coarse modes. SST can significantly enhance organic enrichment in SSA particles, while the multiplicative increases vary from 2 to 10 times depending on the organic matter species and the SSA particle size. Based on our experimental results, it is predicted that SST reduction may lead to a significantly higher contribution of Aitken modal SSA-derived CCN in cold waters (0 °C) than in warm waters (30 °C). Additionally, we incorporate SST for the first time in estimating the global flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) emitted via SSA, yielding a value ranging from 23.45 to 55.78 Tg C yr−1. Compared to previous works, our study reveals the crucial role of SST in influencing both cloud formation and the atmospheric organic burden of SSA.
{"title":"Underestimated role of sea surface temperature in sea spray aerosol formation and climate effects","authors":"Jie Hu, Jianlong Li, Narcisse Tsona Tchinda, Yaru Song, Minglan Xu, Kun Li, Lin Du","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00823-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00823-x","url":null,"abstract":"The uncertainty regarding the correlation between sea spray aerosol (SSA) formation and sea surface temperature (SST) hinders the accurate estimation of SSA’s impact on global climate. Here, we developed a temperature-controlled plunging SSA simulation tank to investigate the impact of SST on SSA formation from two perspectives: SSA particle size distribution and organic enrichment. Our findings show that SSA particle size decreases with decreasing SST, as exhibited by an increase in SSA within Aitken mode and a decrease in SSA within accumulation and coarse modes. SST can significantly enhance organic enrichment in SSA particles, while the multiplicative increases vary from 2 to 10 times depending on the organic matter species and the SSA particle size. Based on our experimental results, it is predicted that SST reduction may lead to a significantly higher contribution of Aitken modal SSA-derived CCN in cold waters (0 °C) than in warm waters (30 °C). Additionally, we incorporate SST for the first time in estimating the global flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) emitted via SSA, yielding a value ranging from 23.45 to 55.78 Tg C yr−1. Compared to previous works, our study reveals the crucial role of SST in influencing both cloud formation and the atmospheric organic burden of SSA.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00823-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142594658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Internal variability arising from the inherently chaotic nature of the climate system has amplified or obscured human-caused changes, especially at regional scales in the extratropics, where its contribution to climate variability is the largest. It is virtually certain that this will continue in the near-term. We here focus on the Northern Europe region, whose variability is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) through remote dynamical and thermodynamic processes, and introduce the concept of internal variability storylines (IVS) to explore, understand, and quantify the role of the two combined drivers of internal variability in the modulation of the anthropogenic warming by 2040 in winter. Based on a large ensemble of historical-scenario simulations, we show that the high-impact IVS, characterised by weak AMOC decline and a decadal shift of the NAO toward dominant positive phase, leads faster to warmer-wetter conditions independently of actual and future greenhouse gases emissions. By contrast, amplified AMOC reduction and more recurrent negative NAO can considerably damp both warming and wettening at near-term. In the latter IVS, we provide evidence that winter-severe conditions similar to those in 2010, that had been responsible for widespread socio-economic disruptions, remain almost as likely to occur by 2040. Reframing the uncertain climate outcomes into the physical science space in a conditional form through the prism of IVS makes climate information relevant for accurate risk assessments and adaptation planning.
{"title":"Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines","authors":"Aurélien Liné, Christophe Cassou, Rym Msadek, Sylvie Parey","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00759-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00759-2","url":null,"abstract":"Internal variability arising from the inherently chaotic nature of the climate system has amplified or obscured human-caused changes, especially at regional scales in the extratropics, where its contribution to climate variability is the largest. It is virtually certain that this will continue in the near-term. We here focus on the Northern Europe region, whose variability is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) through remote dynamical and thermodynamic processes, and introduce the concept of internal variability storylines (IVS) to explore, understand, and quantify the role of the two combined drivers of internal variability in the modulation of the anthropogenic warming by 2040 in winter. Based on a large ensemble of historical-scenario simulations, we show that the high-impact IVS, characterised by weak AMOC decline and a decadal shift of the NAO toward dominant positive phase, leads faster to warmer-wetter conditions independently of actual and future greenhouse gases emissions. By contrast, amplified AMOC reduction and more recurrent negative NAO can considerably damp both warming and wettening at near-term. In the latter IVS, we provide evidence that winter-severe conditions similar to those in 2010, that had been responsible for widespread socio-economic disruptions, remain almost as likely to occur by 2040. Reframing the uncertain climate outcomes into the physical science space in a conditional form through the prism of IVS makes climate information relevant for accurate risk assessments and adaptation planning.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00759-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-05DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00825-9
Jianxiong Hu, Yuliang Er, Xiao Deng, Tao Liu, Fangfang Zeng, Pengpeng Ye, Guanhao He, Qijiong Zhu, Ye Jin, Sujuan Chen, Cuirong Ji, Ziqiang Lin, Fengrui Jing, Leilei Duan, Yuan Wang, Wenjun Ma
The night-time temperature-related injury risks and burdens were unclear. Using 11,512,467 non-fatal injury cases in 243 surveillance hospitals across China from 2006-2021, we estimated the associations between daytime or night-time temperature and injury by a time-stratified case-crossover study, and compared their injury burden during 1990s–2010s. We found the excess risk (ER) for per 1°C rise in night-time temperature (ER = 1.21%, 95%CI:1.03%,1.39%) was greater than that in daytime (ER = 0.86%, 95%CI:0.72%,1.00%). Compared with the 1980s, the attributable fractions (AFs) for daytime and night-time temperature change during the 1990s–2010s were 0.59% (95%eCI:0.54%,0.67%) and 0.73% (95%eCI:0.69%,0.77%), respectively. Spatially, the higher AFs of night-time temperature were more widely distributed than daytime temperature. The non-fatal injury risk attributed to night-time temperature was stronger than daytime temperature, and increased night-time temperatures posed a heavier injury burden compared with daytime temperature in China. Our findings indicate that high night-time temperature is an important injury risk in the context of climate change.
{"title":"Non-fatal Injury burden attributed to night-time temperature during 1990s-2010s in China","authors":"Jianxiong Hu, Yuliang Er, Xiao Deng, Tao Liu, Fangfang Zeng, Pengpeng Ye, Guanhao He, Qijiong Zhu, Ye Jin, Sujuan Chen, Cuirong Ji, Ziqiang Lin, Fengrui Jing, Leilei Duan, Yuan Wang, Wenjun Ma","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00825-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00825-9","url":null,"abstract":"The night-time temperature-related injury risks and burdens were unclear. Using 11,512,467 non-fatal injury cases in 243 surveillance hospitals across China from 2006-2021, we estimated the associations between daytime or night-time temperature and injury by a time-stratified case-crossover study, and compared their injury burden during 1990s–2010s. We found the excess risk (ER) for per 1°C rise in night-time temperature (ER = 1.21%, 95%CI:1.03%,1.39%) was greater than that in daytime (ER = 0.86%, 95%CI:0.72%,1.00%). Compared with the 1980s, the attributable fractions (AFs) for daytime and night-time temperature change during the 1990s–2010s were 0.59% (95%eCI:0.54%,0.67%) and 0.73% (95%eCI:0.69%,0.77%), respectively. Spatially, the higher AFs of night-time temperature were more widely distributed than daytime temperature. The non-fatal injury risk attributed to night-time temperature was stronger than daytime temperature, and increased night-time temperatures posed a heavier injury burden compared with daytime temperature in China. Our findings indicate that high night-time temperature is an important injury risk in the context of climate change.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00825-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ice core oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from low-latitude regions preserve high-resolution climate records in the past, yet the interpretation of these ice core δ18O records is still facing difficulty due to the uncertainty of ice core dating. Here we present a new established δ18O time series from Qiangtang (QT) No. 1 ice core retrieved from the central Tibetan Plateau. Due to the vague seasonal signals in the QT ice core, we investigated the spectral properties of δ18O record with depth and discussed the implications of significant spectral power peaks in the QT ice core. We employed a variational mode decomposition (VMD) analysis for the upper part of the QT ice core to decompose the δ18O depth series in order to separate the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, a signal strongly preserved in the QT ice core δ18O record. With this approach, we established a time series of 335 years (1677–2011 CE) for the upper 50 m of the QT ice core. Subsequently, we examined the frequency of the new established δ18O time series and detected strong signals of the bidecadal and multidecadal modes of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO consists of two modes with periods of approximately 25–35 years and 50–70 years, and we found that the 50–70 years periodicity has persisted since 1700 CE, succeeded by dominance of the 25–75 years periodicity after 1900 CE. Additionally, we analyzed the δ18O series of the QT ice core during the past century and determined that the increasing frequency of El Niño events is an important factor contributing to the increase in recent ice core δ18O.
{"title":"A reconstructed PDO history from an ice core isotope record on the central Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Shijie Li, Lide Tian, Zhongyin Cai, Di Wang, Lili Shao, Xiaoyi Yang, Shangjie Wang, Feng Liu, Pengbin Liang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00814-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00814-y","url":null,"abstract":"Ice core oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from low-latitude regions preserve high-resolution climate records in the past, yet the interpretation of these ice core δ18O records is still facing difficulty due to the uncertainty of ice core dating. Here we present a new established δ18O time series from Qiangtang (QT) No. 1 ice core retrieved from the central Tibetan Plateau. Due to the vague seasonal signals in the QT ice core, we investigated the spectral properties of δ18O record with depth and discussed the implications of significant spectral power peaks in the QT ice core. We employed a variational mode decomposition (VMD) analysis for the upper part of the QT ice core to decompose the δ18O depth series in order to separate the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, a signal strongly preserved in the QT ice core δ18O record. With this approach, we established a time series of 335 years (1677–2011 CE) for the upper 50 m of the QT ice core. Subsequently, we examined the frequency of the new established δ18O time series and detected strong signals of the bidecadal and multidecadal modes of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO consists of two modes with periods of approximately 25–35 years and 50–70 years, and we found that the 50–70 years periodicity has persisted since 1700 CE, succeeded by dominance of the 25–75 years periodicity after 1900 CE. Additionally, we analyzed the δ18O series of the QT ice core during the past century and determined that the increasing frequency of El Niño events is an important factor contributing to the increase in recent ice core δ18O.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00814-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Under a warmer climate, the enhancement of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) risk poses a great challenge for sustainable development. Here, we introduce a novel framework for DWAA detection based on our proposed soil moisture concentration index. By the end of this century, over humid southern China, the shift of soil moisture time series from anomalously wet to anomalously dry pattern, or the other way around, will be more abrupt. In addition, the proposed framework driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations projects more widespread DWAA-affected areas over southwestern China, coastal regions of southeastern China, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially under a high emission scenario. The framework proposed in this study provides an efficient system for DWAA detection and prediction, and the findings of this study provide a reference for upgrading hydraulic infrastructure and mitigating future DWAA events.
{"title":"Projecting dry-wet abrupt alternation across China from the perspective of soil moisture","authors":"Jianxiu Qiu, Chenxi He, Xiaoping Liu, Lun Gao, Chao Tan, Xinghan Wang, Dongdong Kong, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Deliang Chen, Jun Xia","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00808-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00808-w","url":null,"abstract":"Under a warmer climate, the enhancement of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) risk poses a great challenge for sustainable development. Here, we introduce a novel framework for DWAA detection based on our proposed soil moisture concentration index. By the end of this century, over humid southern China, the shift of soil moisture time series from anomalously wet to anomalously dry pattern, or the other way around, will be more abrupt. In addition, the proposed framework driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations projects more widespread DWAA-affected areas over southwestern China, coastal regions of southeastern China, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially under a high emission scenario. The framework proposed in this study provides an efficient system for DWAA detection and prediction, and the findings of this study provide a reference for upgrading hydraulic infrastructure and mitigating future DWAA events.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00808-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00821-z
Marine Lanet, Laurent Li, Antoine Ehret, Solène Turquety, Hervé Le Treut
Summer 2022 was exceptionally hot and dry in Europe and especially in Southwest France, where the most important wildfires since 1949 had serious environmental and socio-economic impacts. Here we conduct an impact-oriented climate change attribution study by first investigating which climate indices are the most correlated with the burnt area between 2003 and 2022. We find that an index combining soil moisture integrated over 6 months and temperature and vapour pressure deficit integrated over 3 months is correlated with large burnt areas. Using the index developed, we estimate that anthropogenic climate change made climate conditions propitious for wildfire development, such as the ones of July 2022, two times more likely, with a return period of 13 years in the current climate. Our study raises the question of the sustainability of the Landes Forest and stresses the urgent need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.
{"title":"Attribution of summer 2022 extreme wildfire season in Southwest France to anthropogenic climate change","authors":"Marine Lanet, Laurent Li, Antoine Ehret, Solène Turquety, Hervé Le Treut","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00821-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00821-z","url":null,"abstract":"Summer 2022 was exceptionally hot and dry in Europe and especially in Southwest France, where the most important wildfires since 1949 had serious environmental and socio-economic impacts. Here we conduct an impact-oriented climate change attribution study by first investigating which climate indices are the most correlated with the burnt area between 2003 and 2022. We find that an index combining soil moisture integrated over 6 months and temperature and vapour pressure deficit integrated over 3 months is correlated with large burnt areas. Using the index developed, we estimate that anthropogenic climate change made climate conditions propitious for wildfire development, such as the ones of July 2022, two times more likely, with a return period of 13 years in the current climate. Our study raises the question of the sustainability of the Landes Forest and stresses the urgent need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00821-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00812-0
Robert Blaga, Sneha Gautam
Low-cost particulate matter sensors (LCS) are vital for improving the spatial and temporal resolution of air quality data, supplementing sparsely placed official monitoring stations. Despite their benefits, LCS readings can be biased due to the physical properties of aerosol particles and device limitations. An optimization model is essential to enhance LCS data accuracy. This paper presents a calibration study of the LCS network of Timișoara, Romania. The calibration began by selecting LCS devices near National Air Quality Monitoring Network (NAQMN) stations and developing parametric models, choosing the best for broader application. Plantower, Sensirion, and Honeywell sensors showed comparable accuracy. Calibration involved clusters within a 750 m radius around NAQMN stations. Models incorporating RH corrections and multiple linear regression (MLR) were fitted. The best model was validated against data from unseen sensors, leading to mean bias errors (MBE) within 9-17% and RMSEs of 33-35%, within sensor uncertainty margins. Applied to the city-wide LCS network, the model identified several stations regularly exceeding the EU daily PM10 threshold, unnoticed by NAQMN stations due to their limited coverage. The study highlights the necessity of granular monitoring to accurately capture urban air quality variations.
{"title":"Improving PM10 sensor accuracy in urban areas through calibration in Timișoara","authors":"Robert Blaga, Sneha Gautam","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00812-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00812-0","url":null,"abstract":"Low-cost particulate matter sensors (LCS) are vital for improving the spatial and temporal resolution of air quality data, supplementing sparsely placed official monitoring stations. Despite their benefits, LCS readings can be biased due to the physical properties of aerosol particles and device limitations. An optimization model is essential to enhance LCS data accuracy. This paper presents a calibration study of the LCS network of Timișoara, Romania. The calibration began by selecting LCS devices near National Air Quality Monitoring Network (NAQMN) stations and developing parametric models, choosing the best for broader application. Plantower, Sensirion, and Honeywell sensors showed comparable accuracy. Calibration involved clusters within a 750 m radius around NAQMN stations. Models incorporating RH corrections and multiple linear regression (MLR) were fitted. The best model was validated against data from unseen sensors, leading to mean bias errors (MBE) within 9-17% and RMSEs of 33-35%, within sensor uncertainty margins. Applied to the city-wide LCS network, the model identified several stations regularly exceeding the EU daily PM10 threshold, unnoticed by NAQMN stations due to their limited coverage. The study highlights the necessity of granular monitoring to accurately capture urban air quality variations.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00812-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ice nucleating particles (INPs) affect the cloud radiative budget in the rapidly warming Arctic by changing the cloud liquid/ice phase balance. Dust emitted in the Arctic (Arctic dust) has been suggested to be a major contributor to INPs in the Arctic lower troposphere. However, how Arctic dust and its impacts on ice nucleation change with Arctic warming has not been explored. Here we find that the simulated dust emission flux in the Arctic (>60°N) in global model simulations increases by 20% from 1981–1990 to 2011–2020. This increase weakens the sensitivity of ice nucleation in Arctic lower tropospheric clouds to warming by 40% compared to the case without considering Arctic dust emission increases. Our results demonstrate a better understanding of the counterbalancing feedbacks of Arctic dust (i.e., increasing emissions and decreasing ice nucleation efficiency) is needed for more accurate estimates of changes in ice nucleation in the rapidly changing Arctic climate.
{"title":"Increasing Arctic dust suppresses the reduction of ice nucleation in the Arctic lower troposphere by warming","authors":"Hitoshi Matsui, Kei Kawai, Yutaka Tobo, Yoshinori Iizuka, Sumito Matoba","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00811-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00811-1","url":null,"abstract":"Ice nucleating particles (INPs) affect the cloud radiative budget in the rapidly warming Arctic by changing the cloud liquid/ice phase balance. Dust emitted in the Arctic (Arctic dust) has been suggested to be a major contributor to INPs in the Arctic lower troposphere. However, how Arctic dust and its impacts on ice nucleation change with Arctic warming has not been explored. Here we find that the simulated dust emission flux in the Arctic (>60°N) in global model simulations increases by 20% from 1981–1990 to 2011–2020. This increase weakens the sensitivity of ice nucleation in Arctic lower tropospheric clouds to warming by 40% compared to the case without considering Arctic dust emission increases. Our results demonstrate a better understanding of the counterbalancing feedbacks of Arctic dust (i.e., increasing emissions and decreasing ice nucleation efficiency) is needed for more accurate estimates of changes in ice nucleation in the rapidly changing Arctic climate.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00811-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142562001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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