Pub Date : 2024-12-21DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00878-w
Gordon B. Bonan, Clara Deser, William R. Wieder, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Flavio Lehner
Internal climate variability (ICV) creates a range of climate trajectories, which are superimposed upon the forced response. A single climate model realization may not represent forced change alone and may diverge from other realizations, as well as observations, due to ICV. We use an initial-condition large ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to show that ICV produces a range of outcomes in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Trends in gross primary production (GPP) from 1991 to 2020 differ among ensemble members due to the different climate trajectories resulting from ICV. We quantify how ICV imparts on GPP trends and apply our methodology to the observational record. Observed changes in GPP at two long-running eddy covariance flux towers are consistent with ICV, challenging the understanding of forced changes in the carbon cycle at these locations. A probabilistic framework that accounts for ICV is needed to interpret carbon cycle trends.
{"title":"When is a trend meaningful? Insights to carbon cycle variability from an initial-condition large ensemble","authors":"Gordon B. Bonan, Clara Deser, William R. Wieder, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Flavio Lehner","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00878-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00878-w","url":null,"abstract":"Internal climate variability (ICV) creates a range of climate trajectories, which are superimposed upon the forced response. A single climate model realization may not represent forced change alone and may diverge from other realizations, as well as observations, due to ICV. We use an initial-condition large ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to show that ICV produces a range of outcomes in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Trends in gross primary production (GPP) from 1991 to 2020 differ among ensemble members due to the different climate trajectories resulting from ICV. We quantify how ICV imparts on GPP trends and apply our methodology to the observational record. Observed changes in GPP at two long-running eddy covariance flux towers are consistent with ICV, challenging the understanding of forced changes in the carbon cycle at these locations. A probabilistic framework that accounts for ICV is needed to interpret carbon cycle trends.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00878-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-21DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00843-7
Yong-Jhih Chen, Yen-Ting Hwang, Jian Lu
The responses of South Asian Monsoon (SAM) circulation under global warming are known to be highly uncertain, leading to the widespread of SAM rainfall projections among models. Here, we show that the uncertain SAM circulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models consists of two robust components that partly offset each other: a weakening component linked to a global thermodynamic constraint and a northward shift component understood through a regional 2D energetic perspective. We further attribute the robust northward shift of SAM circulation to positive cloud feedback over the Eurasia Continent and heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. A set of climate model simulations supports the finding that SAM rainfall increase is primarily due to the northward shift of circulation driven by extratropical processes. This energetic perspective opens new avenues for predicting monsoon rainfall by connecting circulation changes to radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake.
{"title":"Robust increase in South Asian monsoon rainfall under warming driven by extratropical clouds and ocean","authors":"Yong-Jhih Chen, Yen-Ting Hwang, Jian Lu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00843-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00843-7","url":null,"abstract":"The responses of South Asian Monsoon (SAM) circulation under global warming are known to be highly uncertain, leading to the widespread of SAM rainfall projections among models. Here, we show that the uncertain SAM circulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models consists of two robust components that partly offset each other: a weakening component linked to a global thermodynamic constraint and a northward shift component understood through a regional 2D energetic perspective. We further attribute the robust northward shift of SAM circulation to positive cloud feedback over the Eurasia Continent and heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. A set of climate model simulations supports the finding that SAM rainfall increase is primarily due to the northward shift of circulation driven by extratropical processes. This energetic perspective opens new avenues for predicting monsoon rainfall by connecting circulation changes to radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00843-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-21DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00879-9
Mengyan Chen, Matthew Collins, Jin-Yi Yu, Xin Wang, Lei Zhang, Chi-Yung Tam
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Tripole (IOT) represent primary modes of interannual variability in the Indian Ocean, impacting both regional and global climate. Unlike the IOD, which is closely related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), our findings unveil a substantial influence of the Australian Monsoon on the IOT. An anomalously strong Monsoon induces local sea surface temperature (SST) variations via the wind-evaporation-SST mechanism, triggering atmospheric circulation anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean. These circulation changes lead to changes in oceanic heat transport, facilitating the formation of the IOT. Our analysis reveals a strengthening connection between the Australian Monsoon and the IOT in recent decades, with a projected further strengthening under global warming. This contrasts with the diminished coupling between ENSO and IOD in recent decades from observations and model projections, illustrating evolving Indian Ocean dynamics under the warming climate.
{"title":"Emerging influence of the Australian Monsoon on Indian Ocean interannual variability in a warming climate","authors":"Mengyan Chen, Matthew Collins, Jin-Yi Yu, Xin Wang, Lei Zhang, Chi-Yung Tam","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00879-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00879-9","url":null,"abstract":"The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Tripole (IOT) represent primary modes of interannual variability in the Indian Ocean, impacting both regional and global climate. Unlike the IOD, which is closely related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), our findings unveil a substantial influence of the Australian Monsoon on the IOT. An anomalously strong Monsoon induces local sea surface temperature (SST) variations via the wind-evaporation-SST mechanism, triggering atmospheric circulation anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean. These circulation changes lead to changes in oceanic heat transport, facilitating the formation of the IOT. Our analysis reveals a strengthening connection between the Australian Monsoon and the IOT in recent decades, with a projected further strengthening under global warming. This contrasts with the diminished coupling between ENSO and IOD in recent decades from observations and model projections, illustrating evolving Indian Ocean dynamics under the warming climate.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00879-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00841-9
Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young, Elizaveta Malinina, Quinn E. Barber, Karen Garcia Perdomo, Salvatore R. Curasi, Yongxiao Liang, Piyush Jain, Nathan P. Gillett, Marc-André Parisien, Alex J. Cannon, Aranildo R. Lima, Vivek K. Arora, Yan Boulanger, Joe R. Melton, Laura Van Vliet, Xuebin Zhang
In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using climate models, we show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of area burned at least as large as in 2023 across most of Canada, with more than two-fold increases in the east and southwest. The long fire season was more than five times as likely and the large areas across Canada experiencing synchronous extreme fire weather were also much more likely due to human influence on the climate. Simulated emissions from the 2023 wildfire season were eight times their 1985-2022 mean. With continued warming, the likelihood of extreme fire seasons is projected to increase further in the future, driving additional impacts on health, society, and ecosystems.
{"title":"Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada","authors":"Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young, Elizaveta Malinina, Quinn E. Barber, Karen Garcia Perdomo, Salvatore R. Curasi, Yongxiao Liang, Piyush Jain, Nathan P. Gillett, Marc-André Parisien, Alex J. Cannon, Aranildo R. Lima, Vivek K. Arora, Yan Boulanger, Joe R. Melton, Laura Van Vliet, Xuebin Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00841-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00841-9","url":null,"abstract":"In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using climate models, we show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of area burned at least as large as in 2023 across most of Canada, with more than two-fold increases in the east and southwest. The long fire season was more than five times as likely and the large areas across Canada experiencing synchronous extreme fire weather were also much more likely due to human influence on the climate. Simulated emissions from the 2023 wildfire season were eight times their 1985-2022 mean. With continued warming, the likelihood of extreme fire seasons is projected to increase further in the future, driving additional impacts on health, society, and ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00841-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142858491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00873-1
Rong Tian, Jinpei Yan, Fangqun Yu, Hang Yang, Shanshan Wang, Shuhui Zhao, Miming Zhang, Xiaoke Zhang, Siying Dai
Ammonia volatilized from penguin excreta is a significant nitrogen source in Antarctic ecosystems, influencing climate through new particle formation (NPF). Freeze-thaw events can trigger ammonia emissions, but their impact on penguin-derived ammonia is understudied and overlooked in models. Here we investigate the contribution of penguins to ammonia and their climatic impacts using cruise observations and GEOS-Chem-APM simulations. High ammonia concentrations, with a maximum exceeding 7000 ng/m3, were observed over the Southern Ocean and Prydz Bay, driven by air masses from penguin colonies. Simulations showed that incorporating freeze-thaw impact improves model performance, with penguin-derived ammonia emissions enhanced by up to 20-fold and reaching a total of 49 Gg across Antarctica in November. Elevated ammonia increased simulated secondary particle number concentrations by 30−300% through NPF, enhancing simulated cloud droplet number concentrations by 10−20% and altering cloud properties. This study underscores the importance of incorporating penguin emissions into models, particularly during freeze-thaw events.
{"title":"Freeze-thaw process boosts penguin-derived NH3 emissions and enhances climate-relevant particles formation in Antarctica","authors":"Rong Tian, Jinpei Yan, Fangqun Yu, Hang Yang, Shanshan Wang, Shuhui Zhao, Miming Zhang, Xiaoke Zhang, Siying Dai","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00873-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00873-1","url":null,"abstract":"Ammonia volatilized from penguin excreta is a significant nitrogen source in Antarctic ecosystems, influencing climate through new particle formation (NPF). Freeze-thaw events can trigger ammonia emissions, but their impact on penguin-derived ammonia is understudied and overlooked in models. Here we investigate the contribution of penguins to ammonia and their climatic impacts using cruise observations and GEOS-Chem-APM simulations. High ammonia concentrations, with a maximum exceeding 7000 ng/m3, were observed over the Southern Ocean and Prydz Bay, driven by air masses from penguin colonies. Simulations showed that incorporating freeze-thaw impact improves model performance, with penguin-derived ammonia emissions enhanced by up to 20-fold and reaching a total of 49 Gg across Antarctica in November. Elevated ammonia increased simulated secondary particle number concentrations by 30−300% through NPF, enhancing simulated cloud droplet number concentrations by 10−20% and altering cloud properties. This study underscores the importance of incorporating penguin emissions into models, particularly during freeze-thaw events.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00873-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142858489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00860-6
Chunlei Liu, Liang Jin, Ning Cao, Qianye Su, Lijing Cheng, Xiaoqing Liao, Richard P. Allan, Fangli Qiao, Zhenya Song, Michael Mayer, Susanna Winkelbauer, Jiandong Li, Hongzhou Xu, Ke Yang, Yuying Pan, Zhiting Liang
Understanding changes in global ocean heat content (OHC) is essential for investigating Earth’s energy imbalance and climate change. OHC trends are assessed using four state-of-the-art ocean reanalyses and one objective analysis. The spatial OHC trend patterns captured by reanalyses are consistent with each other, but sensitive to the selected time period. A higher proportion of heat uptake in the 100–2000 m sub-surface layer over 2001–2010 than 1994–2000 contributed to the temporary slowdown in global surface warming. The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and heat transport show better agreement with RAPID observations compared with previous studies. Zonal mean OHC trends in the North Atlantic over 40–60 °N differ for the MOC increasing (2000–2004) and decreasing periods (2005–2010) and OHC increases are more concentrated between 30 and 40 °N in the later MOC increasing period (2011–2022). These results do not support previous studies suggesting that MOC changes are reducing Earth’s mean surface warming.
{"title":"Assessment of the global ocean heat content and North Atlantic heat transport over 1993–2020","authors":"Chunlei Liu, Liang Jin, Ning Cao, Qianye Su, Lijing Cheng, Xiaoqing Liao, Richard P. Allan, Fangli Qiao, Zhenya Song, Michael Mayer, Susanna Winkelbauer, Jiandong Li, Hongzhou Xu, Ke Yang, Yuying Pan, Zhiting Liang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00860-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00860-6","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding changes in global ocean heat content (OHC) is essential for investigating Earth’s energy imbalance and climate change. OHC trends are assessed using four state-of-the-art ocean reanalyses and one objective analysis. The spatial OHC trend patterns captured by reanalyses are consistent with each other, but sensitive to the selected time period. A higher proportion of heat uptake in the 100–2000 m sub-surface layer over 2001–2010 than 1994–2000 contributed to the temporary slowdown in global surface warming. The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and heat transport show better agreement with RAPID observations compared with previous studies. Zonal mean OHC trends in the North Atlantic over 40–60 °N differ for the MOC increasing (2000–2004) and decreasing periods (2005–2010) and OHC increases are more concentrated between 30 and 40 °N in the later MOC increasing period (2011–2022). These results do not support previous studies suggesting that MOC changes are reducing Earth’s mean surface warming.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00860-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142858533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00871-3
Wen Zhang, Weichen Tao, Gang Huang, Kaiming Hu, Xia Qu, Ya Wang, Haosu Tang, Suqin Zhang
Analysis of a suite of global climate model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, our results demonstrate a progressive strengthening of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) with rising CO2 concentrations, a trend that persists as CO2 declines, followed by gradual recovery without fully returning to its initial state when CO2 concentrations restore. The overshoot of the WNPAC in the CO2 RD phase is highly correlated with the enhanced anomalous Maritime Continent (MC) convection, which influences WNPAC through reinforced Kelvin wave response or local Hadley circulation adjustment. This enhanced convection is attributed to increased Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient associated with strengthened MC warming and accelerated decay of El Niño in the Central Pacific, ultimately linked to climatological equatorial Pacific El Niño-like warming pattern-related air-sea processes. The overshoot of the WNPAC during the CO2 RD phase may exacerbate flood and high temperature risks in densely populated East Asia.
{"title":"Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutrality","authors":"Wen Zhang, Weichen Tao, Gang Huang, Kaiming Hu, Xia Qu, Ya Wang, Haosu Tang, Suqin Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00871-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00871-3","url":null,"abstract":"Analysis of a suite of global climate model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, our results demonstrate a progressive strengthening of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) with rising CO2 concentrations, a trend that persists as CO2 declines, followed by gradual recovery without fully returning to its initial state when CO2 concentrations restore. The overshoot of the WNPAC in the CO2 RD phase is highly correlated with the enhanced anomalous Maritime Continent (MC) convection, which influences WNPAC through reinforced Kelvin wave response or local Hadley circulation adjustment. This enhanced convection is attributed to increased Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient associated with strengthened MC warming and accelerated decay of El Niño in the Central Pacific, ultimately linked to climatological equatorial Pacific El Niño-like warming pattern-related air-sea processes. The overshoot of the WNPAC during the CO2 RD phase may exacerbate flood and high temperature risks in densely populated East Asia.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00871-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00850-8
Jae-Hee Cho, Hak-Sung Kim
This study investigates the critical role of meteorological variability, particularly polar vortex dynamics, in shaping PM2.5 anomaly patterns across sub-regions in East Asia. Following sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in winter, East Asia experienced significant tropospheric transitions, including cooling-to-warming shifts. The strengthening of the Mongolian high, combined with tropospheric warming, altered lower tropospheric dynamics. Contrasting warming in Mongolia and cooling to the north intensified baroclinic instability, creating anomalous Mongolian cyclones for increased dust storm activity and higher PM2.5 levels. Elevated PM2.5 concentrations in eastern China, driven by substantial anthropogenic emissions, were dispersed by the divergent flow under the Mongolian high. Cyclones with increased baroclinic instability over southern and northeastern China contributed to precipitation, which led to negative anomaly variations of PM2.5 aerosols. Downwind regions like Korea saw elevated PM2.5 anomalies due to stable lower tropospheric conditions driven by the movement of the warmed Mongolian high.
{"title":"Influence of an abnormally cold stratospheric polar vortex on the sub-regional PM2.5 anomaly in East Asia in March of 2021","authors":"Jae-Hee Cho, Hak-Sung Kim","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00850-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00850-8","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the critical role of meteorological variability, particularly polar vortex dynamics, in shaping PM2.5 anomaly patterns across sub-regions in East Asia. Following sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in winter, East Asia experienced significant tropospheric transitions, including cooling-to-warming shifts. The strengthening of the Mongolian high, combined with tropospheric warming, altered lower tropospheric dynamics. Contrasting warming in Mongolia and cooling to the north intensified baroclinic instability, creating anomalous Mongolian cyclones for increased dust storm activity and higher PM2.5 levels. Elevated PM2.5 concentrations in eastern China, driven by substantial anthropogenic emissions, were dispersed by the divergent flow under the Mongolian high. Cyclones with increased baroclinic instability over southern and northeastern China contributed to precipitation, which led to negative anomaly variations of PM2.5 aerosols. Downwind regions like Korea saw elevated PM2.5 anomalies due to stable lower tropospheric conditions driven by the movement of the warmed Mongolian high.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00850-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00866-0
Tian Chang, Yonghong Yi, Huiru Jiang, Rongxing Li, Ping Lu, Lin Liu, Lingxiao Wang, Lin Zhao, Simon Zwieback, Jingyi Zhao
Accurate estimate of active layer thickness (ALT) is crucial for understanding permafrost and ecosystem responses to climate change. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture SAR (InSAR) technology can detect active layer freeze-thaw induced surface deformation with high accuracy, facilitating more accurate ALT estimation at the regional scale. Previous studies revealed a positive relationship between ALT and seasonal deformation in poorly drained Arctic soils. However, whether such relationship still holds in arid permafrost regions such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) remains uncertain. Through synthesizing extensive field observations and remote sensing data, we find an overall negative correlation (r = -0.53, p < 0.01) between ALT and seasonal deformation in QTP, which tends to become more negative with sparser vegetation and drier soils, in contrast to the Arctic. After normalizing the climatic effect on ALT, we observe a decreasing sensitivity of seasonal deformation to active-layer changes with drier soils. Our study reveals a non-linear relationship between ALT and seasonal deformation across different permafrost regions, which helps to inform future development of InSAR-based permafrost applications.
{"title":"Unraveling the non-linear relationship between seasonal deformation and permafrost active layer thickness","authors":"Tian Chang, Yonghong Yi, Huiru Jiang, Rongxing Li, Ping Lu, Lin Liu, Lingxiao Wang, Lin Zhao, Simon Zwieback, Jingyi Zhao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00866-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00866-0","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate estimate of active layer thickness (ALT) is crucial for understanding permafrost and ecosystem responses to climate change. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture SAR (InSAR) technology can detect active layer freeze-thaw induced surface deformation with high accuracy, facilitating more accurate ALT estimation at the regional scale. Previous studies revealed a positive relationship between ALT and seasonal deformation in poorly drained Arctic soils. However, whether such relationship still holds in arid permafrost regions such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) remains uncertain. Through synthesizing extensive field observations and remote sensing data, we find an overall negative correlation (r = -0.53, p < 0.01) between ALT and seasonal deformation in QTP, which tends to become more negative with sparser vegetation and drier soils, in contrast to the Arctic. After normalizing the climatic effect on ALT, we observe a decreasing sensitivity of seasonal deformation to active-layer changes with drier soils. Our study reveals a non-linear relationship between ALT and seasonal deformation across different permafrost regions, which helps to inform future development of InSAR-based permafrost applications.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00866-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00869-x
Weiyang Hu, Bo Zheng, Daven K. Henze, Ni Lu, Xiaolin Wang, Lin Zhang, Tzung-May Fu, Yu Zhao
Effective abatement of air-pollution-induced health damages requires a comprehensive understanding of the changing roles of individual sources and cross-regional transport. Here, we estimate premature mortality attributable to specific source categories, precursor species, and regions within mainland China. We find that the marginal national premature deaths, dominated by PM2.5 exposure, have declined from 151,842 per 10% growth of emissions in 2013 to 111,271 in 2020, and would further to 54,293 in 2035 following a carbon peaking and carbon neutrality pathway. The impacts of certain species-category combinations have grown including NOX from industrial combustion and off-road traffic. The proportions of cross-provincial to marginal health burden have remained stable at around 50%. Provinces with net exporting of premature deaths were intensively located in the north of China while those with net importing were in the south. Our findings highlight the need for a location-precursor/sector-specific strategy of emission controls in China’s public health regulatory framework.
{"title":"Health burdens related to emission sources and cross-provincial air pollution in China","authors":"Weiyang Hu, Bo Zheng, Daven K. Henze, Ni Lu, Xiaolin Wang, Lin Zhang, Tzung-May Fu, Yu Zhao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00869-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00869-x","url":null,"abstract":"Effective abatement of air-pollution-induced health damages requires a comprehensive understanding of the changing roles of individual sources and cross-regional transport. Here, we estimate premature mortality attributable to specific source categories, precursor species, and regions within mainland China. We find that the marginal national premature deaths, dominated by PM2.5 exposure, have declined from 151,842 per 10% growth of emissions in 2013 to 111,271 in 2020, and would further to 54,293 in 2035 following a carbon peaking and carbon neutrality pathway. The impacts of certain species-category combinations have grown including NOX from industrial combustion and off-road traffic. The proportions of cross-provincial to marginal health burden have remained stable at around 50%. Provinces with net exporting of premature deaths were intensively located in the north of China while those with net importing were in the south. Our findings highlight the need for a location-precursor/sector-specific strategy of emission controls in China’s public health regulatory framework.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00869-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142858492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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