Pub Date : 2024-06-05DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00668-4
Yong Sun, Haibin Wu, Lin Ding, Lixin Chen, Christian Stepanek, Yan Zhao, Ning Tan, Baohuang Su, Xiayu Yuan, Wenchao Zhang, Bo Liu, Stephen Hunter, Alan Haywood, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Camille Contoux, Daniel J. Lunt, Aisling Dolan, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Harry Dowsett, Julia Tindall, Michiel Baatsen, W. Richard Peltier, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Ulrich Salzmann, Wing-Le Chan, Zhongshi Zhang, Charles J. R. Williams, Gilles Ramstein
The mid-Piacenzian warm period (MPWP, ~3.264–3.025 Ma) has gained widespread interest due to its partial analogy with future climate. However, quantitative data–model comparison of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the MPWP is relatively rare, especially due to problems in decoding the imprint of physical processes to climate signals in the records. In this study, pollen-based precipitation records are reconstructed and compared to the multi-model ensemble mean of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). We find spatially consistent precipitation increase in most simulations but a spatially divergent change in MPWP records. We reconcile proxy data and simulation by decomposing physical processes that control precipitation. Our results 1) reveal thermodynamic control of an overall enhancement of EASM precipitation and 2) highlight a distinct control of thermodynamic and dynamical processes on increases of tropical and subtropical EASM precipitation, reflecting the two pathways of water vapor supply that enhance EASM precipitation, respectively.
{"title":"Decomposition of physical processes controlling EASM precipitation changes during the mid-Piacenzian: new insights into data–model integration","authors":"Yong Sun, Haibin Wu, Lin Ding, Lixin Chen, Christian Stepanek, Yan Zhao, Ning Tan, Baohuang Su, Xiayu Yuan, Wenchao Zhang, Bo Liu, Stephen Hunter, Alan Haywood, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Camille Contoux, Daniel J. Lunt, Aisling Dolan, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Harry Dowsett, Julia Tindall, Michiel Baatsen, W. Richard Peltier, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Ulrich Salzmann, Wing-Le Chan, Zhongshi Zhang, Charles J. R. Williams, Gilles Ramstein","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00668-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00668-4","url":null,"abstract":"The mid-Piacenzian warm period (MPWP, ~3.264–3.025 Ma) has gained widespread interest due to its partial analogy with future climate. However, quantitative data–model comparison of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the MPWP is relatively rare, especially due to problems in decoding the imprint of physical processes to climate signals in the records. In this study, pollen-based precipitation records are reconstructed and compared to the multi-model ensemble mean of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). We find spatially consistent precipitation increase in most simulations but a spatially divergent change in MPWP records. We reconcile proxy data and simulation by decomposing physical processes that control precipitation. Our results 1) reveal thermodynamic control of an overall enhancement of EASM precipitation and 2) highlight a distinct control of thermodynamic and dynamical processes on increases of tropical and subtropical EASM precipitation, reflecting the two pathways of water vapor supply that enhance EASM precipitation, respectively.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00668-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141264888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-04DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00651-z
Ning Li, Lei Wang, Deliang Chen
Vegetation changes are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, consequently modifying climate feedbacks related to frozen ground thawing and carbon cycling in cold regions. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) contains diverse alpine ecosystems and the largest area of frozen ground in low–mid latitude regions. Evidence suggests ongoing vegetation greening and permafrost degradation during the past several decades on the TP. However, the effect of vegetation changes on soil thermal regimes on the TP is not well understood. Here, we quantify the response of shallow soil temperature change to vegetation greening on the TP using remote–sensing data, in–situ observations, and physics–based modelling. Our results show that over the past 20 years, vegetation greening on the TP was accompanied a notable decrease in the area of bare land by approximately 0.7% (5000 km2). Annual mean soil temperature showed a significant warming trend of 0.57 °C decade–1 (p < 0.05) during the period 1983–2019, exceeding the warming rate of surface air temperature. Changes in vegetation resulted in a warming effect on annual shallow soil temperature of 0.15 ± 0.33 °C across the TP during the period 2000–2019. The warming effect varies with frozen soil types: 0.24 ± 0.48 °C in permafrost, 0.18 ± 0.36 °C in seasonally frozen ground, and 0.11 ± 0.32 °C in unfrozen ground. The net warming effect was caused by a decrease in albedo and increase in radiation penetrating the canopy, outweighing the cooling effect related to a limited increase in evapotranspiration.
{"title":"Vegetation greening amplifies shallow soil temperature warming on the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Ning Li, Lei Wang, Deliang Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00651-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00651-z","url":null,"abstract":"Vegetation changes are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, consequently modifying climate feedbacks related to frozen ground thawing and carbon cycling in cold regions. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) contains diverse alpine ecosystems and the largest area of frozen ground in low–mid latitude regions. Evidence suggests ongoing vegetation greening and permafrost degradation during the past several decades on the TP. However, the effect of vegetation changes on soil thermal regimes on the TP is not well understood. Here, we quantify the response of shallow soil temperature change to vegetation greening on the TP using remote–sensing data, in–situ observations, and physics–based modelling. Our results show that over the past 20 years, vegetation greening on the TP was accompanied a notable decrease in the area of bare land by approximately 0.7% (5000 km2). Annual mean soil temperature showed a significant warming trend of 0.57 °C decade–1 (p < 0.05) during the period 1983–2019, exceeding the warming rate of surface air temperature. Changes in vegetation resulted in a warming effect on annual shallow soil temperature of 0.15 ± 0.33 °C across the TP during the period 2000–2019. The warming effect varies with frozen soil types: 0.24 ± 0.48 °C in permafrost, 0.18 ± 0.36 °C in seasonally frozen ground, and 0.11 ± 0.32 °C in unfrozen ground. The net warming effect was caused by a decrease in albedo and increase in radiation penetrating the canopy, outweighing the cooling effect related to a limited increase in evapotranspiration.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00651-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141246255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-04DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00665-7
Erik H. Hoffmann, Andreas Tilgner, Hartmut Herrmann
Monomethylamine (MMA), dimethylamine (DMA), and trimethylamine (TMA) are important compounds for atmospheric key processes, e.g., new particle formation (NPF). A description of their multiphase chemical processing within atmospheric models is incomplete, but mandatory to describe their atmospheric budgets. In this study, a detailed multiphase chemistry mechanism was developed and first process model investigations were performed. The simulations focused on pristine marine conditions, where open research questions exist regarding ambient gas-phase concentrations of methylamines, particularly with regards to unexpectedly high DMA levels. The simulations reveal that TMA oxidation in cloud droplets results into DMA formation with a yield of around 87%, a missing DMA production pathway in current models. Also, it is demonstrated that about 21% and 69% of the respective DMA and TMA gas-phase oxidation proceed via autoxidation yielding HOOCH2NHCHO and HOOCH2N(CHO)CH2OOH, respectively. The discussed processes should be included into atmospheric models for advanced predictions of NPF and climate impacts.
{"title":"An improved multiphase chemistry mechanism for methylamines: significant dimethylamine cloud production","authors":"Erik H. Hoffmann, Andreas Tilgner, Hartmut Herrmann","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00665-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00665-7","url":null,"abstract":"Monomethylamine (MMA), dimethylamine (DMA), and trimethylamine (TMA) are important compounds for atmospheric key processes, e.g., new particle formation (NPF). A description of their multiphase chemical processing within atmospheric models is incomplete, but mandatory to describe their atmospheric budgets. In this study, a detailed multiphase chemistry mechanism was developed and first process model investigations were performed. The simulations focused on pristine marine conditions, where open research questions exist regarding ambient gas-phase concentrations of methylamines, particularly with regards to unexpectedly high DMA levels. The simulations reveal that TMA oxidation in cloud droplets results into DMA formation with a yield of around 87%, a missing DMA production pathway in current models. Also, it is demonstrated that about 21% and 69% of the respective DMA and TMA gas-phase oxidation proceed via autoxidation yielding HOOCH2NHCHO and HOOCH2N(CHO)CH2OOH, respectively. The discussed processes should be included into atmospheric models for advanced predictions of NPF and climate impacts.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00665-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141246336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-01DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00674-6
Young-Min Yang, Jongsoo Shin, So-Won Park, Jae-Heung Park, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug, Sang-Wook Yeh, June-Yi Lee, Bin Wang, Tim Li, Nari Im
Climate change mitigation through negative CO2 emissions has been recognized as a crucial strategy to combat global warming. However, its potential effects on terrestrial productivity and agricultural activities remain uncertain. In this study, we utilized large ensemble simulations with an Earth system model of full complexity to investigate the response of Gross Primary Production (GPP) to CO2 forcings. Our findings reveal a significant asymmetry in the GPP response to CO2 ramp-up and symmetric ramp-down model experiments, especially in Europe, suggesting that GPP declines rapidly as CO2 levels decrease. Remarkably, during the CO2 removal period, the North Atlantic Sea surface temperature experienced cooling due to a delayed recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This cooling led to precipitation and soil moisture deficits, resulting in a rapid reduction in GPP. This asymmetry in GPP response holds consistent across multi-model simulations. These results underscore the potential implications of delayed recovery in ocean circulation, which could unexpectedly accelerate terrestrial GPP reduction. These insights are crucial for policymakers, aiding them in projecting agricultural activity and formulating targeted GPP control policies specific to the European region.
{"title":"Fast reduction of Atlantic SST threatens Europe-wide gross primary productivity under positive and negative CO2 emissions","authors":"Young-Min Yang, Jongsoo Shin, So-Won Park, Jae-Heung Park, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug, Sang-Wook Yeh, June-Yi Lee, Bin Wang, Tim Li, Nari Im","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00674-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00674-6","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change mitigation through negative CO2 emissions has been recognized as a crucial strategy to combat global warming. However, its potential effects on terrestrial productivity and agricultural activities remain uncertain. In this study, we utilized large ensemble simulations with an Earth system model of full complexity to investigate the response of Gross Primary Production (GPP) to CO2 forcings. Our findings reveal a significant asymmetry in the GPP response to CO2 ramp-up and symmetric ramp-down model experiments, especially in Europe, suggesting that GPP declines rapidly as CO2 levels decrease. Remarkably, during the CO2 removal period, the North Atlantic Sea surface temperature experienced cooling due to a delayed recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This cooling led to precipitation and soil moisture deficits, resulting in a rapid reduction in GPP. This asymmetry in GPP response holds consistent across multi-model simulations. These results underscore the potential implications of delayed recovery in ocean circulation, which could unexpectedly accelerate terrestrial GPP reduction. These insights are crucial for policymakers, aiding them in projecting agricultural activity and formulating targeted GPP control policies specific to the European region.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00674-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141187660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-31DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00669-3
Tao Liu, Yu Wang, Huang Cai, Hao Wang, Chunlin Zhang, Jun Chen, Yan Dai, Wenlong Zhao, Jiangyong Li, Daocheng Gong, Duohong Chen, Yuhong Zhai, Yan Zhou, Tong Liao, Boguang Wang
Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is a hazardous secondary pollutant and a nitrogen reservoir in the troposphere, while comprehensive studies on its spatiotemporal distribution, chemical sources, and control strategies are limited. This study addressed these issues based on 1-year multi-site observations in the Pearl River Delta region, showing a pattern of higher PAN levels in the cold season, particularly in coastal areas. Moreover, in situ modeling indicated a net photochemical PAN formation in the warm season, while PAN was dominated by regional transport in the cold season (i.e., rural and coastal areas), releasing NO2 and PA radicals and promoting ozone (O3) formation. In addition, the feasibility of joint control of PAN and O3 was confirmed by their isopleth diagrams. C7–C9 aromatics and C4–C5 alkenes, largely from vehicle exhaust and solvent usage, were identified as the predominant contributors to PAN formation in this region. Overall, this study deepens our understanding of PAN chemistry and provides valuable insights into its control measures.
过氧乙酰硝酸酯（PAN）是一种有害的二次污染物，也是对流层中的氮库，但对其时空分布、化学来源和控制策略的全面研究却很有限。本研究针对这些问题，在珠江三角洲地区进行了为期 1 年的多站点观测，结果表明 PAN 水平在寒冷季节较高，尤其是在沿海地区。此外，原位建模表明，暖季有净光化学 PAN 形成，而冷季 PAN 则主要通过区域传输（即农村和沿海地区），释放出 NO2 和 PA 自由基，并促进臭氧 (O3) 的形成。此外，PAN 和 O3 的等值线图也证实了联合控制 PAN 和 O3 的可行性。C7-C9芳烃和C4-C5烯烃（主要来自汽车尾气和溶剂使用）被确定为该地区 PAN 形成的主要因素。总之，这项研究加深了我们对 PAN 化学的理解，并为其控制措施提供了宝贵的见解。
{"title":"Complexities of peroxyacetyl nitrate photochemistry and its control strategies in contrasting environments in the Pearl River Delta region","authors":"Tao Liu, Yu Wang, Huang Cai, Hao Wang, Chunlin Zhang, Jun Chen, Yan Dai, Wenlong Zhao, Jiangyong Li, Daocheng Gong, Duohong Chen, Yuhong Zhai, Yan Zhou, Tong Liao, Boguang Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00669-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00669-3","url":null,"abstract":"Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is a hazardous secondary pollutant and a nitrogen reservoir in the troposphere, while comprehensive studies on its spatiotemporal distribution, chemical sources, and control strategies are limited. This study addressed these issues based on 1-year multi-site observations in the Pearl River Delta region, showing a pattern of higher PAN levels in the cold season, particularly in coastal areas. Moreover, in situ modeling indicated a net photochemical PAN formation in the warm season, while PAN was dominated by regional transport in the cold season (i.e., rural and coastal areas), releasing NO2 and PA radicals and promoting ozone (O3) formation. In addition, the feasibility of joint control of PAN and O3 was confirmed by their isopleth diagrams. C7–C9 aromatics and C4–C5 alkenes, largely from vehicle exhaust and solvent usage, were identified as the predominant contributors to PAN formation in this region. Overall, this study deepens our understanding of PAN chemistry and provides valuable insights into its control measures.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00669-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141185380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-30DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00664-8
Hongwei Sun, Stephen Bourguet, Lan Luan, David Keith
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) aims to reflect solar radiation by increasing the stratospheric aerosol burden. To understand how the background circulation influences stratospheric transport of injected particles, we use a Lagrangian trajectory model (lacking numerical diffusion) to quantify particles’ number, flux, lifetime, and tropospheric sinks from a SAI injection strategy under present-day conditions. While particles are being injected, stratospheric particle number increases until reaching a steady-state. During the steady-state, the time series of particle number shows a dominant period of ~2 years (rather than a 1-year cycle), suggesting modulation by the quasi-biannual oscillation. More than half of particles, injected in the tropical lower stratosphere (15° S to 15° N, 65 hPa), undergo quasi-horizontal transport to the midlatitude. We find a zonal asymmetry of particles’ tropospheric sinks that are co-located with tropopause folding beneath the midlatitude jet stream, which can help predict tropospheric impacts of SAI (e.g., cirrus cloud thinning).
平流层气溶胶注入（SAI）旨在通过增加平流层气溶胶负荷来反射太阳辐射。为了了解背景环流如何影响注入粒子的平流层传输，我们使用拉格朗日轨迹模型（缺乏数值扩散）来量化粒子的数量、通量、寿命和对流层汇。在注入粒子的同时，平流层粒子数量会增加，直至达到稳态。在稳态期间，粒子数的时间序列显示出约 2 年的主要周期（而不是 1 年周期），这表明粒子数受到准半年度振荡的影响。在热带低平流层（南纬 15°至北纬 15°，65 hPa）注入的粒子，有一半以上经过准水平传输到达中纬度。我们发现，颗粒物在对流层的吸收汇与中纬度喷流下面的对流层顶折叠在同一位置上存在着地带不对称性，这有助于预测 SAI 对对流层的影响（如卷云变薄）。
{"title":"Stratospheric transport and tropospheric sink of solar geoengineering aerosol: a Lagrangian analysis","authors":"Hongwei Sun, Stephen Bourguet, Lan Luan, David Keith","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00664-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00664-8","url":null,"abstract":"Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) aims to reflect solar radiation by increasing the stratospheric aerosol burden. To understand how the background circulation influences stratospheric transport of injected particles, we use a Lagrangian trajectory model (lacking numerical diffusion) to quantify particles’ number, flux, lifetime, and tropospheric sinks from a SAI injection strategy under present-day conditions. While particles are being injected, stratospheric particle number increases until reaching a steady-state. During the steady-state, the time series of particle number shows a dominant period of ~2 years (rather than a 1-year cycle), suggesting modulation by the quasi-biannual oscillation. More than half of particles, injected in the tropical lower stratosphere (15° S to 15° N, 65 hPa), undergo quasi-horizontal transport to the midlatitude. We find a zonal asymmetry of particles’ tropospheric sinks that are co-located with tropopause folding beneath the midlatitude jet stream, which can help predict tropospheric impacts of SAI (e.g., cirrus cloud thinning).","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00664-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141182314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
There have been few case studies of the relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the East Asian climate before the pre-industrial era with limited anthropogenic impacts. Using the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulation with reconstruction evidence, we showed that there was an interdecadal transition of the summer precipitation in East China, with the pattern of “southern flooding and northern drought” in the mid-18th century. The interdecadal transition was influenced by PDO, as suggested by both the reconstruction evidence and simulation. Corresponding to the positive PDO phase change, the East Asia-Pacific pattern teleconnection wave train propagated northward and modulated the circulation and precipitation in East China, together with the southward movement of the East Asian westerly jet. The volcanic double or clustered eruptions are thought to have played a crucial role on the shift of the PDO phase and the decadal summer climate change over East China during the mid-18th century. Incorporating volcanic activity in a reasonable manner would likely improve decadal simulations of East Asian climate in the past and predictions in the future.
{"title":"PDO influenced interdecadal summer precipitation change over East China in mid-18th century","authors":"Gebanruo Chen, Xiangyu Li, Zhiqing Xu, Yong Liu, Zhongshi Zhang, Shiyu Shao, Jing Gao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00666-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00666-6","url":null,"abstract":"There have been few case studies of the relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the East Asian climate before the pre-industrial era with limited anthropogenic impacts. Using the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulation with reconstruction evidence, we showed that there was an interdecadal transition of the summer precipitation in East China, with the pattern of “southern flooding and northern drought” in the mid-18th century. The interdecadal transition was influenced by PDO, as suggested by both the reconstruction evidence and simulation. Corresponding to the positive PDO phase change, the East Asia-Pacific pattern teleconnection wave train propagated northward and modulated the circulation and precipitation in East China, together with the southward movement of the East Asian westerly jet. The volcanic double or clustered eruptions are thought to have played a crucial role on the shift of the PDO phase and the decadal summer climate change over East China during the mid-18th century. Incorporating volcanic activity in a reasonable manner would likely improve decadal simulations of East Asian climate in the past and predictions in the future.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00666-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141177745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-24DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00670-w
Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Qinxue Gu, Shouwei Li
The rate of sea level rise (SLR) along the Southeast Coast of the U.S. increased significantly after 2010. While anthropogenic radiative forcing causes an acceleration of global mean SLR, regional changes in the rate of SLR are strongly influenced by internal variability. Here we use observations and climate models to show that the rapid increase in the rate of SLR along the U.S. Southeast Coast after 2010 is due in part to multidecadal buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations, along with heat transport convergence from wind-driven ocean circulation changes. We show that an initialized decadal prediction system can provide skillful regional SLR predictions induced by AMOC variations 5 years in advance, while wind-driven sea level variations are predictable 2 years in advance. Our results suggest that the rate of coastal SLR and its associated flooding risk along the U.S. southeastern seaboard are potentially predictable on multiyear timescales.
{"title":"Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010","authors":"Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Qinxue Gu, Shouwei Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00670-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00670-w","url":null,"abstract":"The rate of sea level rise (SLR) along the Southeast Coast of the U.S. increased significantly after 2010. While anthropogenic radiative forcing causes an acceleration of global mean SLR, regional changes in the rate of SLR are strongly influenced by internal variability. Here we use observations and climate models to show that the rapid increase in the rate of SLR along the U.S. Southeast Coast after 2010 is due in part to multidecadal buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations, along with heat transport convergence from wind-driven ocean circulation changes. We show that an initialized decadal prediction system can provide skillful regional SLR predictions induced by AMOC variations 5 years in advance, while wind-driven sea level variations are predictable 2 years in advance. Our results suggest that the rate of coastal SLR and its associated flooding risk along the U.S. southeastern seaboard are potentially predictable on multiyear timescales.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00670-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141096748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-23DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00660-y
Jaeyoung Hwang, Seok-Woo Son, Patrick Martineau, Mi-Kyung Sung, David Barriopedro, Soon-Il An, Sang-Wook Yeh, Seung-Ki Min, Jong-Seong Kug, Jongsoo Shin
Atmospheric blocking has been identified as one of the key elements of the extratropical atmospheric variabilities, controlling extreme weather events in mid-latitudes. Future projections indicate that Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency may decrease as CO2 concentrations increase. Here, we show that such changes may not be reversed when CO2 concentrations return to the current levels. Blocking frequency instead exhibits basin-dependent changes in response to CO2 removal. While the North Atlantic blocking frequency recovers gradually from the CO2-induced eastward shift, the North Pacific blocking frequency under the CO2 removal remains lower than its initial state. These basin-dependent blocking frequency changes result from background flow changes and their interactions with high-frequency eddies. Both high-frequency eddy and background flow changes determine North Atlantic blocking changes, whereas high-frequency eddy changes dominate the slow recovery of North Pacific blocking. Our results indicate that blocking-related extreme events in the Northern Hemisphere winter may not monotonically respond to CO2 removal.
{"title":"Basin-dependent response of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency to CO2 removal","authors":"Jaeyoung Hwang, Seok-Woo Son, Patrick Martineau, Mi-Kyung Sung, David Barriopedro, Soon-Il An, Sang-Wook Yeh, Seung-Ki Min, Jong-Seong Kug, Jongsoo Shin","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00660-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00660-y","url":null,"abstract":"Atmospheric blocking has been identified as one of the key elements of the extratropical atmospheric variabilities, controlling extreme weather events in mid-latitudes. Future projections indicate that Northern Hemisphere winter blocking frequency may decrease as CO2 concentrations increase. Here, we show that such changes may not be reversed when CO2 concentrations return to the current levels. Blocking frequency instead exhibits basin-dependent changes in response to CO2 removal. While the North Atlantic blocking frequency recovers gradually from the CO2-induced eastward shift, the North Pacific blocking frequency under the CO2 removal remains lower than its initial state. These basin-dependent blocking frequency changes result from background flow changes and their interactions with high-frequency eddies. Both high-frequency eddy and background flow changes determine North Atlantic blocking changes, whereas high-frequency eddy changes dominate the slow recovery of North Pacific blocking. Our results indicate that blocking-related extreme events in the Northern Hemisphere winter may not monotonically respond to CO2 removal.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00660-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141085426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-23DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00658-6
Prince Xavier, Jeong Yik Diong, Muhammad Firdaus Ammar Bin Abdullah, Donaldi Permana, Alvin Pura, Hoang Lam
The regional characteristics of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (BSISO) over southeast Asia are presented. The northeastward transition of the BSISO is characterised by 4 phases, such that convection is enhanced over the Philippines and Indochina in phase 1 and suppressed over Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo and Java. The opposite is true in phase 3. The role of BSISO in modulating extreme precipitation is highlighted, showcasing how its phases impact both the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events across the region. Using a method to detect and characterise precipitation features in terms of precipitating areas and their associated object properties, this study shows distinct shifts in precipitation regimes during different phases of the BSISO. Phase 1 exhibits increased large-scale convective activity, particularly affecting regions like the South China Sea and northern Philippines, linked to increased tropical storm frequency but reduced localised extreme precipitation events. In contrast, Phase 3, with active convection over Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra, shows intensified extreme precipitation from smaller to medium-sized areas. BSISO phases also modify the distribution of small and large precipitation objects over land, ocean, and coastal regions. This classification of precipitation regimes provides detailed insights into how the BSISO’s large-scale envelope modifies regional precipitation extremes through various precipitation properties. This information could benefit probabilistic predictions of regional extreme precipitation events at subseasonal time scales.
{"title":"The influence of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations on precipitation extremes and their characteristics in Southeast Asia","authors":"Prince Xavier, Jeong Yik Diong, Muhammad Firdaus Ammar Bin Abdullah, Donaldi Permana, Alvin Pura, Hoang Lam","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00658-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00658-6","url":null,"abstract":"The regional characteristics of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (BSISO) over southeast Asia are presented. The northeastward transition of the BSISO is characterised by 4 phases, such that convection is enhanced over the Philippines and Indochina in phase 1 and suppressed over Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo and Java. The opposite is true in phase 3. The role of BSISO in modulating extreme precipitation is highlighted, showcasing how its phases impact both the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events across the region. Using a method to detect and characterise precipitation features in terms of precipitating areas and their associated object properties, this study shows distinct shifts in precipitation regimes during different phases of the BSISO. Phase 1 exhibits increased large-scale convective activity, particularly affecting regions like the South China Sea and northern Philippines, linked to increased tropical storm frequency but reduced localised extreme precipitation events. In contrast, Phase 3, with active convection over Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra, shows intensified extreme precipitation from smaller to medium-sized areas. BSISO phases also modify the distribution of small and large precipitation objects over land, ocean, and coastal regions. This classification of precipitation regimes provides detailed insights into how the BSISO’s large-scale envelope modifies regional precipitation extremes through various precipitation properties. This information could benefit probabilistic predictions of regional extreme precipitation events at subseasonal time scales.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00658-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141092206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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