Pub Date : 2024-08-24DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00748-5
Xiangbo Feng
Detecting and interpreting long-term changes in typhoon translation speed in observations remains challenging, contrasting with increased confidence in the poleward migration of typhoons. Here, I show a significant relationship between the basin-wide translation speed and the latitudinal position of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific over 1980–2023. First, because tropical cyclones move faster at higher latitudes, the significant poleward migration (80 km/decade) increases the yearly basin-wide translation speed by 5% over the period. This effect reduces the detectability of a slowing trend. Second, the basin-wide translation speed solely contributed by regional translation speed has slowed by 18%, mostly in the late stage of the cyclone lifecycle. The translation speed slowdown and the poleward migration are likely caused by the same climate drivers through the interconnected large-scale atmospheric circulation between the tropics and subtropics. My findings suggest exacerbated tropical cyclone-related risk in the subtropical regions in a changing climate.
{"title":"Translation speed slowdown and poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones","authors":"Xiangbo Feng","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00748-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00748-5","url":null,"abstract":"Detecting and interpreting long-term changes in typhoon translation speed in observations remains challenging, contrasting with increased confidence in the poleward migration of typhoons. Here, I show a significant relationship between the basin-wide translation speed and the latitudinal position of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific over 1980–2023. First, because tropical cyclones move faster at higher latitudes, the significant poleward migration (80 km/decade) increases the yearly basin-wide translation speed by 5% over the period. This effect reduces the detectability of a slowing trend. Second, the basin-wide translation speed solely contributed by regional translation speed has slowed by 18%, mostly in the late stage of the cyclone lifecycle. The translation speed slowdown and the poleward migration are likely caused by the same climate drivers through the interconnected large-scale atmospheric circulation between the tropics and subtropics. My findings suggest exacerbated tropical cyclone-related risk in the subtropical regions in a changing climate.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00748-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142050569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-23DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00742-x
Mengyuan Yao, Haosu Tang, Gang Huang, Renguang Wu
Spring Central Asian precipitation (SCAP) holds significant implications for local agriculture and ecosystems, with its variability mainly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO–SCAP relationship has experienced pronounced interdecadal shifts, though mechanisms remain elusive. Based on observations and climate model simulations, these shifts may result from transitions in ENSO-induced meridional circulation and Rossby wave trains triggered by North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. During high (low) correlation periods, ENSO induces strong (weak) vertical motion anomalies over Central Asia, while NA SST anomalies exert a weak (strong) counteracting effect, modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In the positive (negative) phase of PDO, a slow (fast) decaying ENSO triggers a strong (weak) NA horseshoe-like SST anomaly in the post-ENSO spring, affecting the ENSO–SCAP relationship. Our study identifies a strengthening trend in the ENSO–SCAP relationship since the 2000s, indicating improved predictability for SCAP in recent decades.
{"title":"Interdecadal shifts of ENSO influences on Spring Central Asian precipitation","authors":"Mengyuan Yao, Haosu Tang, Gang Huang, Renguang Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00742-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00742-x","url":null,"abstract":"Spring Central Asian precipitation (SCAP) holds significant implications for local agriculture and ecosystems, with its variability mainly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO–SCAP relationship has experienced pronounced interdecadal shifts, though mechanisms remain elusive. Based on observations and climate model simulations, these shifts may result from transitions in ENSO-induced meridional circulation and Rossby wave trains triggered by North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. During high (low) correlation periods, ENSO induces strong (weak) vertical motion anomalies over Central Asia, while NA SST anomalies exert a weak (strong) counteracting effect, modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In the positive (negative) phase of PDO, a slow (fast) decaying ENSO triggers a strong (weak) NA horseshoe-like SST anomaly in the post-ENSO spring, affecting the ENSO–SCAP relationship. Our study identifies a strengthening trend in the ENSO–SCAP relationship since the 2000s, indicating improved predictability for SCAP in recent decades.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00742-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142045381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-23DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00745-8
Huiying Xuan, Jun Liu, Yaqi Zhao, Qing Cao, Tianzeng Chen, Yonghong Wang, Zirui Liu, Xu Sun, Hao Li, Peng Zhang, Biwu Chu, Qingxin Ma, Hong He
Nitrous acid (HONO), a key precursor of hydroxyl radicals (OH), is one of the factors affecting atmospheric chemistry and air quality. Currently, the proposed sources of HONO are not able to fully explain observed HONO concentrations. In this study, a comprehensive field observation of HONO was conducted in the autumn of 2021 in urban Beijing. The box model using a default Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) was unable to reproduce the observed HONO concentrations with a normalized mean bias (NMB) of −92.8%. The NMB improved to −46.1% after the inclusion of seven additional HONO formation pathways. Several factors like vehicle emission factor (1.23%) and nocturnal NO2 heterogeneous uptake coefficient on the ground surface (8.25 × 10−6) were calculated based on observational data. The enhancement factor for nocturnal NO2 heterogeneous conversion was established as a function of relative humidity (RH) and incorporated into the model, which compensated for the missing nocturnal HONO sources and well-reproduced the observed HONO concentrations, with an NMB of −5.1%. The major source of HONO at night was found to be the heterogeneous reaction of NO2 on the ground surface, contributing up to 85.6%. During the daytime, it was the homogeneous reaction of NO with OH, accounting for 41.8%. The daytime primary source of OH was mainly the photolysis of HONO, which constituted 73.6% and therefore promoted the formation of secondary pollutants and exacerbated haze events.
{"title":"Relative humidity driven nocturnal HONO formation mechanism in autumn haze events of Beijing","authors":"Huiying Xuan, Jun Liu, Yaqi Zhao, Qing Cao, Tianzeng Chen, Yonghong Wang, Zirui Liu, Xu Sun, Hao Li, Peng Zhang, Biwu Chu, Qingxin Ma, Hong He","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00745-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00745-8","url":null,"abstract":"Nitrous acid (HONO), a key precursor of hydroxyl radicals (OH), is one of the factors affecting atmospheric chemistry and air quality. Currently, the proposed sources of HONO are not able to fully explain observed HONO concentrations. In this study, a comprehensive field observation of HONO was conducted in the autumn of 2021 in urban Beijing. The box model using a default Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) was unable to reproduce the observed HONO concentrations with a normalized mean bias (NMB) of −92.8%. The NMB improved to −46.1% after the inclusion of seven additional HONO formation pathways. Several factors like vehicle emission factor (1.23%) and nocturnal NO2 heterogeneous uptake coefficient on the ground surface (8.25 × 10−6) were calculated based on observational data. The enhancement factor for nocturnal NO2 heterogeneous conversion was established as a function of relative humidity (RH) and incorporated into the model, which compensated for the missing nocturnal HONO sources and well-reproduced the observed HONO concentrations, with an NMB of −5.1%. The major source of HONO at night was found to be the heterogeneous reaction of NO2 on the ground surface, contributing up to 85.6%. During the daytime, it was the homogeneous reaction of NO with OH, accounting for 41.8%. The daytime primary source of OH was mainly the photolysis of HONO, which constituted 73.6% and therefore promoted the formation of secondary pollutants and exacerbated haze events.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00745-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142041760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is an important photochemical product and affects ozone (O3) formation in the troposphere. Yet, the long-term observation of PAN remains scarce, limiting the full understanding of its impacts on photochemical pollution. Here, we observed PAN from 2018 to 2022 in urban Fuzhou, Southeastern China. We found that, in contrast to upward trend of O3, PAN concentrations shown a significant decreasing trend at an average rate of −0.07 ppb/year. NO2, CO, UVB, and T contributed to the decreasing trend of PAN according to Machine learning analyses, while the effect of O3-represented atmospheric oxidation capacity on PAN was fluctuating from year to year. Chemical box model revealed active PA production and depletion in Fuzhou. Thus, despite the decreasing PAN concentration, PAN chemistry effectively promoted O3 formation by rising ROx levels, leading to increases of 2.18%–58.4% in net O3 production rate in different years. Our results provide valuable insights into the evolution of photochemical pollution in urban environments.
过氧乙酰硝酸酯（PAN）是一种重要的光化学产物，会影响对流层中臭氧（O3）的形成。然而，对PAN的长期观测仍然很少，限制了对其对光化学污染影响的全面了解。在此，我们观测了中国东南部福州城区2018年至2022年的PAN。我们发现，与 O3 的上升趋势相反，PAN 浓度呈显著下降趋势，平均降幅为 -0.07 ppb/年。根据机器学习分析，NO2、CO、UVB 和 T 对 PAN 的下降趋势起到了促进作用，而代表大气氧化能力的 O3 对 PAN 的影响则逐年波动。化学箱模型揭示了福州地区活跃的 PA 生成和耗竭。因此，尽管 PAN 浓度不断下降，但 PAN 化学作用通过提高 ROx 水平有效地促进了 O3 的形成，导致不同年份的 O3 净产生率增加了 2.18%-58.4%。我们的研究结果为了解城市环境中光化学污染的演变提供了有价值的见解。
{"title":"Trends of peroxyacetyl nitrate and its impact on ozone over 2018–2022 in urban atmosphere","authors":"Ziyi Lin, Lingling Xu, Chen Yang, Gaojie Chen, Xiaoting Ji, Lingjun Li, Keran Zhang, Youwei Hong, Mengren Li, Xiaolong Fan, Baoye Hu, Fuwang Zhang, Jinsheng Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00746-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00746-7","url":null,"abstract":"Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is an important photochemical product and affects ozone (O3) formation in the troposphere. Yet, the long-term observation of PAN remains scarce, limiting the full understanding of its impacts on photochemical pollution. Here, we observed PAN from 2018 to 2022 in urban Fuzhou, Southeastern China. We found that, in contrast to upward trend of O3, PAN concentrations shown a significant decreasing trend at an average rate of −0.07 ppb/year. NO2, CO, UVB, and T contributed to the decreasing trend of PAN according to Machine learning analyses, while the effect of O3-represented atmospheric oxidation capacity on PAN was fluctuating from year to year. Chemical box model revealed active PA production and depletion in Fuzhou. Thus, despite the decreasing PAN concentration, PAN chemistry effectively promoted O3 formation by rising ROx levels, leading to increases of 2.18%–58.4% in net O3 production rate in different years. Our results provide valuable insights into the evolution of photochemical pollution in urban environments.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00746-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142041776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-21DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00728-9
Vittorio A. Gensini, Walker S. Ashley, Allison C. Michaelis, Alex M. Haberlie, Jillian Goodin, Brendan C. Wallace
Hailstorms are analyzed across the United States using explicit hailstone size calculations from convection-permitting regional climate simulations for historical, mid-century, and end of twenty-first-century epochs. Near-surface hailstones <4 cm are found to decrease in frequency by an average of 25%, whereas the largest stones are found to increase by 15–75% depending on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Decreases in the frequency of near-surface severe hail days are expected across the U.S. High Plains, with 2–4 fewer days projected—primarily in summer. Column-maximum severe hail days are projected to increase robustly in most locations outside of the southern Plains, a distribution that closely mimics projections of thunderstorm days. Primary mechanisms for the changes in hailstone size are linked to future environments supportive of greater instability opposed by thicker melting layers. This results in a future hailstone size dichotomy, whereby stronger updrafts promote more of the largest hailstones, but significant decreases occur for a majority of smaller diameters due to increased melting.
{"title":"Hailstone size dichotomy in a warming climate","authors":"Vittorio A. Gensini, Walker S. Ashley, Allison C. Michaelis, Alex M. Haberlie, Jillian Goodin, Brendan C. Wallace","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00728-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00728-9","url":null,"abstract":"Hailstorms are analyzed across the United States using explicit hailstone size calculations from convection-permitting regional climate simulations for historical, mid-century, and end of twenty-first-century epochs. Near-surface hailstones <4 cm are found to decrease in frequency by an average of 25%, whereas the largest stones are found to increase by 15–75% depending on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Decreases in the frequency of near-surface severe hail days are expected across the U.S. High Plains, with 2–4 fewer days projected—primarily in summer. Column-maximum severe hail days are projected to increase robustly in most locations outside of the southern Plains, a distribution that closely mimics projections of thunderstorm days. Primary mechanisms for the changes in hailstone size are linked to future environments supportive of greater instability opposed by thicker melting layers. This results in a future hailstone size dichotomy, whereby stronger updrafts promote more of the largest hailstones, but significant decreases occur for a majority of smaller diameters due to increased melting.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00728-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-21DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00743-w
Hongxia Zhu, Shuping Yang, Hongwei Zhao, Yu Wang, Rui Li
An eight-year satellite observation dataset reveals that sulfate aerosols significantly influence the vertical structure of precipitation and latent heat (LH) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during summer. In this period, prevalent sulfate aerosols combine with warm, humid southerly winds and elevated convective available potential energy (CAPE), influencing precipitation dynamics. Under polluted conditions with specific CAPE and precipitation top temperature (PTT) ranges, precipitation particles experience accelerated growth within the mixed-phase layer, delineated by the −5 °C to 2 °C isotherms, compared to pristine environments. This results in a marked increase in both the intensity and height at which the maximum LH is released. Subsequent analysis reveals that hygroscopic sulfate aerosols, acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), amplify the collision-coalescence process within the mixed layer amid high cloud water content, propelling rapid precipitation particle growth and elevating the PTT. This warming effect surpasses the cooling contribution from robust CAPE, culminating in a net elevation of PTT under polluted scenarios compared to pristine ones. Additionally, quantification of PTT sensitivity to both CAPE and aerosol optical depth (AOD) unveils a high consistency between satellite-detected PTT responses to CAPE and those predicted by cloud-resolving model simulations. The study deduces that the role of aerosols as CCN in either invigorating or diminishing the collision-coalescence process is contingent on the available cloud water.
八年的卫星观测数据集显示，硫酸盐气溶胶对京津冀（BTH）地区夏季降水和潜热（LH）的垂直结构有显著影响。在此期间，普遍存在的硫酸盐气溶胶与温暖潮湿的偏南风和升高的对流可用势能（CAPE）相结合，对降水动态产生影响。在具有特定 CAPE 和降水顶温 (PTT) 范围的污染条件下，降水颗粒在混合相层（由 -5 °C 至 2 °C 等温线划定）内的生长速度比原始环境要快。这导致释放最大 LH 的强度和高度明显增加。随后的分析表明，吸湿性硫酸盐气溶胶作为云凝结核（CCN），在云水含量较高的情况下放大了混合层内的碰撞-凝聚过程，推动了降水粒子的快速增长并提高了 PTT。这种升温效应超过了强劲的 CAPE 带来的降温效应，最终导致在污染情况下 PTT 比原始情况下净升高。此外，通过量化 PTT 对 CAPE 和气溶胶光学深度（AOD）的敏感性，发现卫星探测到的 PTT 对 CAPE 的响应与云解析模式模拟预测的响应高度一致。研究推断，气溶胶作为 CCN 在激活或减弱碰撞-凝聚过程中的作用取决于可用的云水。
{"title":"Complex interplay of sulfate aerosols and meteorology conditions on precipitation and latent heat vertical structure","authors":"Hongxia Zhu, Shuping Yang, Hongwei Zhao, Yu Wang, Rui Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00743-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00743-w","url":null,"abstract":"An eight-year satellite observation dataset reveals that sulfate aerosols significantly influence the vertical structure of precipitation and latent heat (LH) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during summer. In this period, prevalent sulfate aerosols combine with warm, humid southerly winds and elevated convective available potential energy (CAPE), influencing precipitation dynamics. Under polluted conditions with specific CAPE and precipitation top temperature (PTT) ranges, precipitation particles experience accelerated growth within the mixed-phase layer, delineated by the −5 °C to 2 °C isotherms, compared to pristine environments. This results in a marked increase in both the intensity and height at which the maximum LH is released. Subsequent analysis reveals that hygroscopic sulfate aerosols, acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), amplify the collision-coalescence process within the mixed layer amid high cloud water content, propelling rapid precipitation particle growth and elevating the PTT. This warming effect surpasses the cooling contribution from robust CAPE, culminating in a net elevation of PTT under polluted scenarios compared to pristine ones. Additionally, quantification of PTT sensitivity to both CAPE and aerosol optical depth (AOD) unveils a high consistency between satellite-detected PTT responses to CAPE and those predicted by cloud-resolving model simulations. The study deduces that the role of aerosols as CCN in either invigorating or diminishing the collision-coalescence process is contingent on the available cloud water.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00743-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142022001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-20DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00733-y
Jing Wang, Lin Tang, Heng Lu
Snow cover on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau significantly impacts the climate, hydrology, and ecology of China and East Asia. Current studies mainly use snow cover days to describe its duration, overlooking the snow’s discontinuous nature. This study analyzes snow phenology and the spatiotemporal distribution of continuous snow cover events on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2019. The findings indicate that continuous snow cover days better capture the temporal discontinuity of snow cover compared to snow cover days. The contribution and continuity are lower than regions like North America, Europe, Northeast and Xinjiang in China, indicating poorer snow cover continuity on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Additionally, we found that temperature and precipitation, especially autumn temperatures and spring and winter precipitation, significantly impact various snow indices. Wind speed also significantly impacts snow cover, particularly in autumn. Atmospheric circulation indirectly affects the snow cover discontinuity by influencing temperature and precipitation.
{"title":"The new indices to describe temporal discontinuity of snow cover on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau","authors":"Jing Wang, Lin Tang, Heng Lu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00733-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00733-y","url":null,"abstract":"Snow cover on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau significantly impacts the climate, hydrology, and ecology of China and East Asia. Current studies mainly use snow cover days to describe its duration, overlooking the snow’s discontinuous nature. This study analyzes snow phenology and the spatiotemporal distribution of continuous snow cover events on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2019. The findings indicate that continuous snow cover days better capture the temporal discontinuity of snow cover compared to snow cover days. The contribution and continuity are lower than regions like North America, Europe, Northeast and Xinjiang in China, indicating poorer snow cover continuity on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Additionally, we found that temperature and precipitation, especially autumn temperatures and spring and winter precipitation, significantly impact various snow indices. Wind speed also significantly impacts snow cover, particularly in autumn. Atmospheric circulation indirectly affects the snow cover discontinuity by influencing temperature and precipitation.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00733-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142007577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-20DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00744-9
Mingjie Liang, Zhiwei Han, Jiawei Li, Yue Li, Lin Liang
This study explores aerosol direct, indirect, and feedback effects on meteorology and fine particulate matter during heat waves of August 2022 over eastern China by using an online coupled regional climate–chemistry–aerosol model. In this period, aerosols exerted mean direct (DRE) and indirect (IRE) radiative effects of −3.9 Wm−2 and −2.4 Wm−2 at TOA, which totally caused a decrease in average surface air temperature by 0.3 °C over east China, accompanied by decreases in PBLH (planetary boundary layer height) and precipitation and an increase in PM2.5 concentration. With the anthropogenic emission reduction from 2013 to 2022, DRE apparently decreased while IRE changed little, leading to a decrease in total aerosol radiative effect (TRE) by 27% at TOA. The weakened TRE resulted in increases in surface air temperature and precipitation by 0.14 °C and 2.7 mm, respectively, on average over east China, with the maximum warming exceeding 0.5 °C in BTH (Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei province). This study highlights a warming trend due to weakened TRE, which may exacerbate heat wave, and an increasing importance of aerosol IRE relative to DRE due to weak sensitivity of cloud properties to aerosol change during the emission reduction.
本研究利用区域气候-化学-气溶胶在线耦合模式，探讨了2022年8月中国东部热浪期间气溶胶对气象和细颗粒物的直接、间接和反馈效应。在此期间，气溶胶在TOA上的平均直接（DRE）和间接（IRE）辐射效应分别为-3.9 Wm-2和-2.4 Wm-2，共导致华东地区地表平均气温下降0.3 °C，同时伴有PBLH（行星边界层高度）和降水的减少以及PM2.5浓度的增加。随着2013年至2022年的人为减排，DRE明显下降，而IRE变化不大，导致TOA处气溶胶总辐射效应（TRE）下降了27%。气溶胶总辐射效应的减弱导致华东地区地表气温和降水量平均分别升高了 0.14 ℃ 和 2.7 毫米，其中京津冀地区的升温幅度最大，超过了 0.5 ℃。这项研究强调了由于 TRE 减弱而导致的变暖趋势，这可能会加剧热浪，同时由于减排期间云特性对气溶胶变化的敏感性较弱，气溶胶 IRE 相对于 DRE 的重要性日益增加。
{"title":"Aerosol effects during heat waves in summer 2022 and responses to emission change over China","authors":"Mingjie Liang, Zhiwei Han, Jiawei Li, Yue Li, Lin Liang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00744-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00744-9","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores aerosol direct, indirect, and feedback effects on meteorology and fine particulate matter during heat waves of August 2022 over eastern China by using an online coupled regional climate–chemistry–aerosol model. In this period, aerosols exerted mean direct (DRE) and indirect (IRE) radiative effects of −3.9 Wm−2 and −2.4 Wm−2 at TOA, which totally caused a decrease in average surface air temperature by 0.3 °C over east China, accompanied by decreases in PBLH (planetary boundary layer height) and precipitation and an increase in PM2.5 concentration. With the anthropogenic emission reduction from 2013 to 2022, DRE apparently decreased while IRE changed little, leading to a decrease in total aerosol radiative effect (TRE) by 27% at TOA. The weakened TRE resulted in increases in surface air temperature and precipitation by 0.14 °C and 2.7 mm, respectively, on average over east China, with the maximum warming exceeding 0.5 °C in BTH (Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei province). This study highlights a warming trend due to weakened TRE, which may exacerbate heat wave, and an increasing importance of aerosol IRE relative to DRE due to weak sensitivity of cloud properties to aerosol change during the emission reduction.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00744-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-16DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00734-x
Reshmita Nath, Debashis Nath, Wen Chen
40% of global population, who resides in Asian monsoon region is at high risk from extreme hot summer events, which is expected to increase by 25%/30 years under RCP8.5 scenario. Using Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large-ensemble simulations we assess the relative contribution of external forcings and internal variability on hot extremes over South and East Asia. Climate change projects surface mean temperature to reach 2.0 °C and 5.0 °C by ~2050 and ~2100, respectively, making the region uninhabitable under exposed conditions. Internal variability will partly obscure anthropogenic warming over South and Southeast Asia; however, East Asia will experience a 4–6 fold rise in record breaking hot events in later periods. Nevertheless, beyond 2.35 °C warming internal variability will decrease over South Asia due to weaker albedo feedback on unforced internal variability. Our results contradict the existing hypothesis that warming will increase volatility in weather patterns everywhere, particularly the Asian monsoon regions.
{"title":"Projected changes in extreme hot summer events in Asian monsoon regions","authors":"Reshmita Nath, Debashis Nath, Wen Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00734-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00734-x","url":null,"abstract":"40% of global population, who resides in Asian monsoon region is at high risk from extreme hot summer events, which is expected to increase by 25%/30 years under RCP8.5 scenario. Using Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large-ensemble simulations we assess the relative contribution of external forcings and internal variability on hot extremes over South and East Asia. Climate change projects surface mean temperature to reach 2.0 °C and 5.0 °C by ~2050 and ~2100, respectively, making the region uninhabitable under exposed conditions. Internal variability will partly obscure anthropogenic warming over South and Southeast Asia; however, East Asia will experience a 4–6 fold rise in record breaking hot events in later periods. Nevertheless, beyond 2.35 °C warming internal variability will decrease over South Asia due to weaker albedo feedback on unforced internal variability. Our results contradict the existing hypothesis that warming will increase volatility in weather patterns everywhere, particularly the Asian monsoon regions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00734-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141994533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-15DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00737-8
Jiayuan Liao, Wei Zheng, Qiong Liao, Sheng Lu
Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are a serious global issue, with substantial evidence indicating that hydroclimate processes significantly contribute to these emissions. Forests, covering one-third of global land, are key in the water cycle and influence hydroclimate processes, which vary with climate, latitude, and forest types. The role of hydroclimate in regulating global forest N2O emission remains largely unknown. Our global analysis shows that hydroclimate factors dominate the latitudinal gradient of forest N2O fluxes, which decrease with latitude. N2O fluxes are highest in tropical forests, followed by temperate and boreal forests. Hydroclimate factors contribute 78.2% to N2O fluxes, while soil factors contribute 21.8%. Our results urgently call for future studies to investigate the relationship between N2O flux and hydroclimate factors like radiation, evapotranspiration, and vapor pressure deficits. Collectively, these findings highlight hydroclimate significant impact on N2O emissions and suggest incorporating these factors into predictive models for greater accuracy.
{"title":"Global latitudinal patterns in forest ecosystem nitrous oxide emissions are related to hydroclimate","authors":"Jiayuan Liao, Wei Zheng, Qiong Liao, Sheng Lu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00737-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00737-8","url":null,"abstract":"Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are a serious global issue, with substantial evidence indicating that hydroclimate processes significantly contribute to these emissions. Forests, covering one-third of global land, are key in the water cycle and influence hydroclimate processes, which vary with climate, latitude, and forest types. The role of hydroclimate in regulating global forest N2O emission remains largely unknown. Our global analysis shows that hydroclimate factors dominate the latitudinal gradient of forest N2O fluxes, which decrease with latitude. N2O fluxes are highest in tropical forests, followed by temperate and boreal forests. Hydroclimate factors contribute 78.2% to N2O fluxes, while soil factors contribute 21.8%. Our results urgently call for future studies to investigate the relationship between N2O flux and hydroclimate factors like radiation, evapotranspiration, and vapor pressure deficits. Collectively, these findings highlight hydroclimate significant impact on N2O emissions and suggest incorporating these factors into predictive models for greater accuracy.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00737-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141986135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：