Pub Date : 2025-01-14DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00910-7
Pei Fang, Taihua Wang, Dawen Yang, Lihua Tang, Yuting Yang
Under climate change, China faces intensifying compound extreme events with serious socio-economic ramifications, yet their future variations remain poorly understood. Here, we estimate historical hotspots and future changes of two typical compound events, i.e., sequential heatwave and precipitation (SHP) and concurrent drought and heatwave (CDH) across China, leveraging a bivariate bias correction method to adjust projections from global climate models. Results show substantial future increases in frequency, duration, and magnitude for both events, with the durations projected to double nationwide. The increases are more evident under higher emission scenarios, and could be largely underestimated if neglecting variable dependence during bias correction process. The projected changes will escalate socio-economic exposure across China’s major urban clusters, among which Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao will face the highest risk. Our findings underscore the necessity of carbon emission controls, and call for adaptive measures to mitigate the threats induced by rising compound hazards in a changing climate.
{"title":"Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate change","authors":"Pei Fang, Taihua Wang, Dawen Yang, Lihua Tang, Yuting Yang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00910-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00910-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Under climate change, China faces intensifying compound extreme events with serious socio-economic ramifications, yet their future variations remain poorly understood. Here, we estimate historical hotspots and future changes of two typical compound events, i.e., sequential heatwave and precipitation (SHP) and concurrent drought and heatwave (CDH) across China, leveraging a bivariate bias correction method to adjust projections from global climate models. Results show substantial future increases in frequency, duration, and magnitude for both events, with the durations projected to double nationwide. The increases are more evident under higher emission scenarios, and could be largely underestimated if neglecting variable dependence during bias correction process. The projected changes will escalate socio-economic exposure across China’s major urban clusters, among which Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao will face the highest risk. Our findings underscore the necessity of carbon emission controls, and call for adaptive measures to mitigate the threats induced by rising compound hazards in a changing climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142974848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-14DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00876-y
Qiyu Zhang, Mu Mu, Guodong Sun
Uncertainties in land surface processes notably limit subseasonal heat wave (HW) onset predictions. A better representation of the uncertainties in land surface processes using ensemble prediction methods may be an important way to improve HW onset predictions. However, generating ensemble members that adequately represent land surface process uncertainties, particularly those related to land surface parameters, remains challenging. In this study, a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameters (CNOP-P) approach was employed to generate ensemble members for representing the uncertainties in land surface processes resulting from parameters. Via six strong and long-lasting HW events over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR), HW onset ensemble forecast experiments were conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The performance of the CNOP-P approach and the traditional random parameter perturbation ensemble prediction method was evaluated. The results demonstrate that the deterministic and probabilistic skills of HW onset predictions show greater excellence using the CNOP-P approach, leading to much better predictions of extreme air temperatures than those using the traditional method. This occurred because the ensemble members generated by the CNOP-P method better represented the uncertainties in important land physical processes determining HW onsets over the MLYR, notably vegetation process uncertainties, whereas the ensemble members generated by the random parameter perturbation method could not. This finding suggests that the CNOP-P method is suitable for producing ensemble members that more appropriately represent model uncertainties through more reasonable parameter error characterization.
{"title":"Skillful subseasonal ensemble predictions of heat wave onsets through better representation of land surface uncertainties","authors":"Qiyu Zhang, Mu Mu, Guodong Sun","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00876-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00876-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Uncertainties in land surface processes notably limit subseasonal heat wave (HW) onset predictions. A better representation of the uncertainties in land surface processes using ensemble prediction methods may be an important way to improve HW onset predictions. However, generating ensemble members that adequately represent land surface process uncertainties, particularly those related to land surface parameters, remains challenging. In this study, a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameters (CNOP-P) approach was employed to generate ensemble members for representing the uncertainties in land surface processes resulting from parameters. Via six strong and long-lasting HW events over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR), HW onset ensemble forecast experiments were conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The performance of the CNOP-P approach and the traditional random parameter perturbation ensemble prediction method was evaluated. The results demonstrate that the deterministic and probabilistic skills of HW onset predictions show greater excellence using the CNOP-P approach, leading to much better predictions of extreme air temperatures than those using the traditional method. This occurred because the ensemble members generated by the CNOP-P method better represented the uncertainties in important land physical processes determining HW onsets over the MLYR, notably vegetation process uncertainties, whereas the ensemble members generated by the random parameter perturbation method could not. This finding suggests that the CNOP-P method is suitable for producing ensemble members that more appropriately represent model uncertainties through more reasonable parameter error characterization.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142974845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-14DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00888-8
Yuefeng Hao, Jiafu Mao, Charles M. Bachmann, Forrest M. Hoffman, Gerbrand Koren, Haishan Chen, Hanqin Tian, Jiangong Liu, Jing Tao, Jinyun Tang, Lingcheng Li, Laibao Liu, Martha Apple, Mingjie Shi, Mingzhou Jin, Qing Zhu, Steve Kannenberg, Xiaoying Shi, Xi Zhang, Yaoping Wang, Yilin Fang, Yongjiu Dai
This literature review synthesizes the role of soil moisture in regulating carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions (CS-GHG). Soil moisture directly affects photosynthesis, respiration, microbial activity, and soil organic matter dynamics, with optimal levels enhancing carbon storage while extremes, such as drought and flooding, disrupt these processes. A quantitative analysis is provided on the effects of soil moisture on CS-GHG across various ecosystems and climatic conditions, highlighting a “Peak and Decline” pattern for CO₂ emissions at 40% water-filled pore space (WFPS), while CH₄ and N₂O emissions peak at higher levels (60–80% and around 80% WFPS, respectively). The review also examines ecosystem models, discussing how soil moisture dynamics are incorporated to simulate photosynthesis, microbial activity, and nutrient cycling. Sustainable soil moisture management practices, including conservation agriculture, agroforestry, and optimized water management, prove effective in enhancing carbon sequestration and mitigating GHG emissions by maintaining ideal soil moisture levels. The review further emphasizes the importance of advancing multiscale observations and feedback modeling through high-resolution remote sensing and ground-based data integration, as well as hybrid modeling frameworks. The interactive model-experiment framework emerges as a promising approach for linking experimental data with model refinement, enabling continuous improvement of CS-GHG predictions. From a policy perspective, shifting focus from short-term agricultural productivity to long-term carbon sequestration is crucial. Achieving this shift will require financial incentives, robust monitoring systems, and collaboration among stakeholders to ensure sustainable practices effectively contribute to climate mitigation goals.
{"title":"Soil moisture controls over carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions: a review","authors":"Yuefeng Hao, Jiafu Mao, Charles M. Bachmann, Forrest M. Hoffman, Gerbrand Koren, Haishan Chen, Hanqin Tian, Jiangong Liu, Jing Tao, Jinyun Tang, Lingcheng Li, Laibao Liu, Martha Apple, Mingjie Shi, Mingzhou Jin, Qing Zhu, Steve Kannenberg, Xiaoying Shi, Xi Zhang, Yaoping Wang, Yilin Fang, Yongjiu Dai","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00888-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00888-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This literature review synthesizes the role of soil moisture in regulating carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions (CS-GHG). Soil moisture directly affects photosynthesis, respiration, microbial activity, and soil organic matter dynamics, with optimal levels enhancing carbon storage while extremes, such as drought and flooding, disrupt these processes. A quantitative analysis is provided on the effects of soil moisture on CS-GHG across various ecosystems and climatic conditions, highlighting a “Peak and Decline” pattern for CO₂ emissions at 40% water-filled pore space (WFPS), while CH₄ and N₂O emissions peak at higher levels (60–80% and around 80% WFPS, respectively). The review also examines ecosystem models, discussing how soil moisture dynamics are incorporated to simulate photosynthesis, microbial activity, and nutrient cycling. Sustainable soil moisture management practices, including conservation agriculture, agroforestry, and optimized water management, prove effective in enhancing carbon sequestration and mitigating GHG emissions by maintaining ideal soil moisture levels. The review further emphasizes the importance of advancing multiscale observations and feedback modeling through high-resolution remote sensing and ground-based data integration, as well as hybrid modeling frameworks. The interactive model-experiment framework emerges as a promising approach for linking experimental data with model refinement, enabling continuous improvement of CS-GHG predictions. From a policy perspective, shifting focus from short-term agricultural productivity to long-term carbon sequestration is crucial. Achieving this shift will require financial incentives, robust monitoring systems, and collaboration among stakeholders to ensure sustainable practices effectively contribute to climate mitigation goals.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142974846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An unexpected record-breaking cold event struck eastern China in December 2023, causing widespread transportation shutdowns, power supply shortages, and agricultural crop damage. The manner in which such an extraordinary cold event was formed under global warming is unclear, as is the way in which anthropogenic climate change may affect the present and future frequency and intensity of similar cold events. Here, we show that the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with the warm Arctic was the main event driver, explaining 83 ± 2% of the intensity of the 2023 cold event, whereas the thermodynamic effect of climate change suppressed the event intensity by −6 ± 3% in ERA5 and −22 ± 2% in HadGEM3-A-N216. An attribution analysis based on coupled model simulations shows that, due to anthropogenic climate change, the frequency and intensity of 2023-like events decrease by 92.5 ± 2.5% and 1.9 ± 0.2 °C, respectively, under the 2023 climate state. The thermodynamic effect of anthropogenic climate change outweighs its dynamic effect. Future projections indicate that the frequency and intensity of these 2023-like events will further decrease by 95 ± 3% and 2.05 ± 0.25 °C by the end of this century under an intermediate-emissions scenario compared with estimates made under the present climate. In contrast, 2023-like events will be similar to present events when the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement is achieved. These findings highlight the dampening effect of anthropogenic climate change on cold events, but adaptation measures for future risks of 2023-like cold events will be needed by the end of the century if carbon neutrality is achieved.
{"title":"Attribution of a record-breaking cold event in the historically warmest year of 2023 and assessing future risks","authors":"Yangbo Ye, Cheng Qian, Aiguo Dai, Yuting Zhang, Jiacheng Jiang, Xiaoye Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00886-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00886-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An unexpected record-breaking cold event struck eastern China in December 2023, causing widespread transportation shutdowns, power supply shortages, and agricultural crop damage. The manner in which such an extraordinary cold event was formed under global warming is unclear, as is the way in which anthropogenic climate change may affect the present and future frequency and intensity of similar cold events. Here, we show that the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with the warm Arctic was the main event driver, explaining 83 ± 2% of the intensity of the 2023 cold event, whereas the thermodynamic effect of climate change suppressed the event intensity by −6 ± 3% in ERA5 and −22 ± 2% in HadGEM3-A-N216. An attribution analysis based on coupled model simulations shows that, due to anthropogenic climate change, the frequency and intensity of 2023-like events decrease by 92.5 ± 2.5% and 1.9 ± 0.2 °C, respectively, under the 2023 climate state. The thermodynamic effect of anthropogenic climate change outweighs its dynamic effect. Future projections indicate that the frequency and intensity of these 2023-like events will further decrease by 95 ± 3% and 2.05 ± 0.25 °C by the end of this century under an intermediate-emissions scenario compared with estimates made under the present climate. In contrast, 2023-like events will be similar to present events when the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement is achieved. These findings highlight the dampening effect of anthropogenic climate change on cold events, but adaptation measures for future risks of 2023-like cold events will be needed by the end of the century if carbon neutrality is achieved.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142968280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-13DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00903-6
Yiwen Lang, Jing Zhang, Jin Zhao, Yuhang Gong, Tian Han, Xiaoqing Deng, Yuqing Liu
Anthropogenic aerosols could weaken the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). This study investigated the regional effects of varying aerosol optical depth (AOD) on the EASM through qualitative and quantitative analyses for three subregions in eastern China. After assessing 38 CMIP6 models, four models (ACCESS-CM2, CanESM5, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0) were selected for detailed analysis. Results showed that the weakening of EASM was predominantly attributed to anthropogenic aerosols. Increased AOD reduced land-sea temperature and pressure differences, weakening the EASM as indicated by the EASMI. Higher aerosol levels decreased surface shortwave radiation, land surface temperature, and evaporation, weakening the land-sea thermal contrast. Enhanced aerosol-induced cooling increased atmospheric stability and downward flow, suppressing upper air water vapor flux and precipitation. These findings underscore the critical role of anthropogenic aerosols in altering regional climate patterns and the importance of emission control to mitigate their effects on the EASM.
{"title":"Mechanisms and quantification: How anthropogenic aerosols weaken the East Asian summer monsoon","authors":"Yiwen Lang, Jing Zhang, Jin Zhao, Yuhang Gong, Tian Han, Xiaoqing Deng, Yuqing Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00903-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00903-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Anthropogenic aerosols could weaken the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). This study investigated the regional effects of varying aerosol optical depth (AOD) on the EASM through qualitative and quantitative analyses for three subregions in eastern China. After assessing 38 CMIP6 models, four models (ACCESS-CM2, CanESM5, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0) were selected for detailed analysis. Results showed that the weakening of EASM was predominantly attributed to anthropogenic aerosols. Increased AOD reduced land-sea temperature and pressure differences, weakening the EASM as indicated by the EASMI. Higher aerosol levels decreased surface shortwave radiation, land surface temperature, and evaporation, weakening the land-sea thermal contrast. Enhanced aerosol-induced cooling increased atmospheric stability and downward flow, suppressing upper air water vapor flux and precipitation. These findings underscore the critical role of anthropogenic aerosols in altering regional climate patterns and the importance of emission control to mitigate their effects on the EASM.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"87 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142968281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-10DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00899-z
Baojuan Huai, Minghu Ding, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Carleen H. Reijmer, Brice Noël, Weijun Sun, Yetang Wang
In this work, we examine connections between patterns of future Greenland precipitation and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes over the Northern Hemisphere. In the last three decades of the 21st century, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble mean precipitation significantly decreases over the northern part of the North Atlantic Ocean with respect to 1951–1980. This drying signal extends from the ocean to the southeastern margin of Greenland. The 500 hPa geopotential height change shows a clear pattern including a widespread increase across the Arctic with a negative anomaly centered over Iceland and surrounding regions. To identify the mechanisms linking atmospheric circulation variability with Greenland precipitation, we perform a singular value decomposition (SVD) and center of action (COA) analysis. We find that a northeastward shift of the Icelandic Low (IL) under the SSP5‐8.5 warming scenario leads to the drying signal found in southeast Greenland. This implies that the IL location will have a strong influence on precipitation changes over southeast Greenland in the future, impacting projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance.
{"title":"Future large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and Greenland precipitation","authors":"Baojuan Huai, Minghu Ding, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Carleen H. Reijmer, Brice Noël, Weijun Sun, Yetang Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00899-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00899-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this work, we examine connections between patterns of future Greenland precipitation and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes over the Northern Hemisphere. In the last three decades of the 21st century, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble mean precipitation significantly decreases over the northern part of the North Atlantic Ocean with respect to 1951–1980. This drying signal extends from the ocean to the southeastern margin of Greenland. The 500 hPa geopotential height change shows a clear pattern including a widespread increase across the Arctic with a negative anomaly centered over Iceland and surrounding regions. To identify the mechanisms linking atmospheric circulation variability with Greenland precipitation, we perform a singular value decomposition (SVD) and center of action (COA) analysis. We find that a northeastward shift of the Icelandic Low (IL) under the SSP5‐8.5 warming scenario leads to the drying signal found in southeast Greenland. This implies that the IL location will have a strong influence on precipitation changes over southeast Greenland in the future, impacting projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142939655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-10DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00862-4
Lifei Yin, Bin Bai, Bingqing Zhang, Qiao Zhu, Qian Di, Weeberb J. Requia, Joel D. Schwartz, Liuhua Shi, Pengfei Liu
Climate change poses direct and indirect threats to public health, including exacerbating air pollution. However, the influence of rising temperature on air quality remains highly uncertain in the United States, particularly under rapid reduction in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we examined the sensitivity of surface-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) to summer temperature anomalies in the contiguous US as well as their decadal changes using high-resolution datasets generated by machine learning. Our findings demonstrate that in the eastern US, stringent emission control strategies have significantly reduced the positive responses of PM2.5 and O3 to summer temperature, thereby lowering the population exposure associated with warming-induced air quality deterioration. In contrast, PM2.5 in the western US became more sensitive to temperature, highlighting the urgent need to manage and mitigate the impact of worsening wildfires. Our results have important implications for air quality management and risk assessments of future climate change.
{"title":"Regional-specific trends of PM2.5 and O3 temperature sensitivity in the United States","authors":"Lifei Yin, Bin Bai, Bingqing Zhang, Qiao Zhu, Qian Di, Weeberb J. Requia, Joel D. Schwartz, Liuhua Shi, Pengfei Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00862-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00862-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change poses direct and indirect threats to public health, including exacerbating air pollution. However, the influence of rising temperature on air quality remains highly uncertain in the United States, particularly under rapid reduction in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we examined the sensitivity of surface-level fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) to summer temperature anomalies in the contiguous US as well as their decadal changes using high-resolution datasets generated by machine learning. Our findings demonstrate that in the eastern US, stringent emission control strategies have significantly reduced the positive responses of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> to summer temperature, thereby lowering the population exposure associated with warming-induced air quality deterioration. In contrast, PM<sub>2.5</sub> in the western US became more sensitive to temperature, highlighting the urgent need to manage and mitigate the impact of worsening wildfires. Our results have important implications for air quality management and risk assessments of future climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142939648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-10DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00896-2
E Deng, Qian Xiang, Johnny C. L. Chan, Yue Dong, Shifei Tu, Pak-Wai Chan, Yi-Qing Ni
Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation has led to escalating urban flooding and transportation disruptions in recent years. The volatility of the TC rain rate (RR) over short periods complicates accurate forecasting. Here, we use satellite-based observational rainfall datasets from 1998 to 2019 to calculate changes in TC 24-h RR and quantify the temporal stability of TC precipitation. We demonstrate a significant global increase in the annual temporal stability of TC RR across the total rainfall area, inner-core, and rainband areas. Specifically, the probabilities of rapid RR increase and decrease events in the TC total rainfall area decreased at rates of –1.74 ± 0.57% per decade and –2.23 ± 0.55% per decade, respectively. Based on the reanalysis dataset, we propose that the synergistic effects of increased atmospheric stability and total column water vapor—both resulting from anthropogenic warming at low latitudes—are potentially associated with this trend.
{"title":"Increasing temporal stability of global tropical cyclone precipitation","authors":"E Deng, Qian Xiang, Johnny C. L. Chan, Yue Dong, Shifei Tu, Pak-Wai Chan, Yi-Qing Ni","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00896-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00896-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation has led to escalating urban flooding and transportation disruptions in recent years. The volatility of the TC rain rate (RR) over short periods complicates accurate forecasting. Here, we use satellite-based observational rainfall datasets from 1998 to 2019 to calculate changes in TC 24-h RR and quantify the temporal stability of TC precipitation. We demonstrate a significant global increase in the annual temporal stability of TC RR across the total rainfall area, inner-core, and rainband areas. Specifically, the probabilities of rapid RR increase and decrease events in the TC total rainfall area decreased at rates of –1.74 ± 0.57% per decade and –2.23 ± 0.55% per decade, respectively. Based on the reanalysis dataset, we propose that the synergistic effects of increased atmospheric stability and total column water vapor—both resulting from anthropogenic warming at low latitudes—are potentially associated with this trend.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142939651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-08DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00889-7
Jae Min Yeom, Hamed Fahandezh Sadi, Jesse C. Anderson, Fan Yang, Will Cantrell, Raymond A. Shaw
Impacts of aerosol particles on clouds, precipitation, and climate remain one of the significant uncertainties in climate change. Aerosol particles entrained at cloud top and edge can affect cloud microphysical and macrophysical properties, but the process is still poorly understood. Here we investigate the cloud microphysical responses to the entrainment of aerosol-laden air in the Pi convection-cloud chamber. Results show that cloud droplet number concentration increases and mean radius of droplets decreases, which leads to narrower droplet size distribution and smaller relative dispersion. These behaviors are generally consistent with the scenario expected from the first aerosol-cloud indirect effect for a constant liquid water content (L). However, L increases significantly in these experiments. Such enhancement of L can be understood as suppression of droplet sedimentation removal due to small droplets. Further, an increase in aerosol concentration from entrainment reduces the effective radius and ultimately increases cloud optical thickness and cloud albedo, making the clouds brighter. These findings are of relevance to the entrainment interface at stratocumulus cloud top, where modeling studies have suggested sedimentation plays a strong role in regulating L. Therefore, the results provide insights into the impacts of entrainment of aerosol-laden air on cloud, precipitation, and climate.
{"title":"Cloud microphysical response to entrainment of dry air containing aerosols","authors":"Jae Min Yeom, Hamed Fahandezh Sadi, Jesse C. Anderson, Fan Yang, Will Cantrell, Raymond A. Shaw","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00889-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00889-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Impacts of aerosol particles on clouds, precipitation, and climate remain one of the significant uncertainties in climate change. Aerosol particles entrained at cloud top and edge can affect cloud microphysical and macrophysical properties, but the process is still poorly understood. Here we investigate the cloud microphysical responses to the entrainment of aerosol-laden air in the Pi convection-cloud chamber. Results show that cloud droplet number concentration increases and mean radius of droplets decreases, which leads to narrower droplet size distribution and smaller relative dispersion. These behaviors are generally consistent with the scenario expected from the first aerosol-cloud indirect effect for a constant liquid water content (<i>L</i>). However, <i>L</i> increases significantly in these experiments. Such enhancement of <i>L</i> can be understood as suppression of droplet sedimentation removal due to small droplets. Further, an increase in aerosol concentration from entrainment reduces the effective radius and ultimately increases cloud optical thickness and cloud albedo, making the clouds brighter. These findings are of relevance to the entrainment interface at stratocumulus cloud top, where modeling studies have suggested sedimentation plays a strong role in regulating <i>L</i>. Therefore, the results provide insights into the impacts of entrainment of aerosol-laden air on cloud, precipitation, and climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142937551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-08DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00902-7
Chuhan Lu, Yichen Shen, Zhaoyong Guan
Extended-range forecast has long maintained a difficult point for the seamless forecast system due to the lack of predictability, with intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), an important signal in many high-impact weather events, being an important source of that. To improve the accuracy of ISO extended-range forecast and make up the gaps in previous researches in this regard, a data-driven model ISOX is proposed for the intraseasonal components of atmospheric fields. Compared with the subseasonal forecast results from climate forecast system (CFS), and the climatological forecast, ISOX achieves higher accuracy for lead times longer than 13 days, with few spatial or temporal weak points. It also performed better in predicting the positive 2 m temperature ISO and lower tropospheric conditions in a heatwave event, surpassing CFS for lead times longer than 13 days. Finally, through gradient evaluation, the model is proved to be able to study the ISO signal movements of atmospheric systems. Thus, the success of this model may shed light on improving extended-range forecast skills and assist the timely detection and prevention of possible meteorological disasters.
{"title":"A modified transformer model for the extended-range forecast of intraseasonal oscillation","authors":"Chuhan Lu, Yichen Shen, Zhaoyong Guan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00902-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00902-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extended-range forecast has long maintained a difficult point for the seamless forecast system due to the lack of predictability, with intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), an important signal in many high-impact weather events, being an important source of that. To improve the accuracy of ISO extended-range forecast and make up the gaps in previous researches in this regard, a data-driven model ISOX is proposed for the intraseasonal components of atmospheric fields. Compared with the subseasonal forecast results from climate forecast system (CFS), and the climatological forecast, ISOX achieves higher accuracy for lead times longer than 13 days, with few spatial or temporal weak points. It also performed better in predicting the positive 2 m temperature ISO and lower tropospheric conditions in a heatwave event, surpassing CFS for lead times longer than 13 days. Finally, through gradient evaluation, the model is proved to be able to study the ISO signal movements of atmospheric systems. Thus, the success of this model may shed light on improving extended-range forecast skills and assist the timely detection and prevention of possible meteorological disasters.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142937558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}