Pub Date : 2024-10-14DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00797-w
Yang Lyu, Jingyu Wang, Xiefei Zhi, Xianfeng Wang, Hugh Zhang, Yonggang Wen, Edward Park, Joshua Lee, Xia Wan, Shoupeng Zhu, Duc Tran Dung
In April and May 2023, Southeast Asia (SEA) encountered an exceptional heatwave. The Continental SEA was hardest hit, where all the countries broke their highest temperature records with measurements exceeding 42 °C, and Thailand set the region’s new record of 49 °C. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of this event by investigating its spatiotemporal evolution, physical mechanisms, forecast performance, return period, and extensive impacts. The enhanced high-pressure influenced by tropical waves, moisture deficiency and strong land-atmosphere coupling are considered as the key drivers to this extreme heatwave event. The ECMWF exhibited limited forecast skills for the reduced soil moisture and failed to capture the land-atmosphere coupling, leading to a severe underestimation of the heatwave’s intensity. Although the return period of this heatwave event is 129 years based on the rarity of temperature records, the combination of near-surface drying and soil moisture deficiency that triggered strong positive land-atmosphere feedback and rapid warming was extremely uncommon, with an occurrence probability of just 0.08%. These analyses underscore the exceptional nature of this unparalleled heatwave event and its underlying physical mechanisms, revealing its broad impacts, including significant health repercussions, a marked increase in wildfires, and diminished agricultural yields.
{"title":"The characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwave","authors":"Yang Lyu, Jingyu Wang, Xiefei Zhi, Xianfeng Wang, Hugh Zhang, Yonggang Wen, Edward Park, Joshua Lee, Xia Wan, Shoupeng Zhu, Duc Tran Dung","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00797-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00797-w","url":null,"abstract":"In April and May 2023, Southeast Asia (SEA) encountered an exceptional heatwave. The Continental SEA was hardest hit, where all the countries broke their highest temperature records with measurements exceeding 42 °C, and Thailand set the region’s new record of 49 °C. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of this event by investigating its spatiotemporal evolution, physical mechanisms, forecast performance, return period, and extensive impacts. The enhanced high-pressure influenced by tropical waves, moisture deficiency and strong land-atmosphere coupling are considered as the key drivers to this extreme heatwave event. The ECMWF exhibited limited forecast skills for the reduced soil moisture and failed to capture the land-atmosphere coupling, leading to a severe underestimation of the heatwave’s intensity. Although the return period of this heatwave event is 129 years based on the rarity of temperature records, the combination of near-surface drying and soil moisture deficiency that triggered strong positive land-atmosphere feedback and rapid warming was extremely uncommon, with an occurrence probability of just 0.08%. These analyses underscore the exceptional nature of this unparalleled heatwave event and its underlying physical mechanisms, revealing its broad impacts, including significant health repercussions, a marked increase in wildfires, and diminished agricultural yields.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00797-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142431085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Typhoons are one of the most important weather systems that can cause severe ozone (O3) pollution in eastern China. While the effects of individual typhoons on O3 concentrations have been extensively studied, the effects of consecutive northward typhoons and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear, partly due to the complex processes involved. Here, Typhoons Maysak and Haishen, two consecutive northward typhoons in 2020, are selected to investigate their impact on the O3 pollution in eastern China. The results show that consecutive northward typhoons not only produced and maintained meteorological conditions conducive to O3 generation (e.g., elevated temperatures and intensified solar radiation), but also facilitated local accumulation and cross-regional transport of O3. These factors jointly led to a 30% increase in O3 concentration in eastern China with a prolonged period of O3 pollution. Our work underscores the significance of complex meteorological conditions in O3 pollution occurrences during extreme weather events, advancing our understanding of how consecutive northward typhoons affect air quality.
{"title":"Consecutive Northward Super Typhoons Induced Extreme Ozone Pollution Events in Eastern China","authors":"Jiahe Wang, Peng Wang, Chunfeng Tian, Meng Gao, Tiantao Cheng, Wei Mei","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00786-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00786-z","url":null,"abstract":"Typhoons are one of the most important weather systems that can cause severe ozone (O3) pollution in eastern China. While the effects of individual typhoons on O3 concentrations have been extensively studied, the effects of consecutive northward typhoons and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear, partly due to the complex processes involved. Here, Typhoons Maysak and Haishen, two consecutive northward typhoons in 2020, are selected to investigate their impact on the O3 pollution in eastern China. The results show that consecutive northward typhoons not only produced and maintained meteorological conditions conducive to O3 generation (e.g., elevated temperatures and intensified solar radiation), but also facilitated local accumulation and cross-regional transport of O3. These factors jointly led to a 30% increase in O3 concentration in eastern China with a prolonged period of O3 pollution. Our work underscores the significance of complex meteorological conditions in O3 pollution occurrences during extreme weather events, advancing our understanding of how consecutive northward typhoons affect air quality.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00786-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142415497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study investigates global extreme precipitation events (EPEs) during warm seasons, with a particular focus on EPEs preceded by extreme heat stress (EPE-Hs) and a comparative analysis with those not (EPE-NHs). Using reanalysis product and Earth System Model data, the spatiotemporal characteristics and temperature sensitivities of EPEs are analyzed. Results show that EPE-Hs, while less frequent, have longer duration and greater magnitude compared to EPE-NHs, particularly in high latitude regions. In the future, a significant increase is projected in the characteristics of EPE-Hs, in contrast to the stable duration and magnitude of EPE-NHs. EPE-Hs demonstrate substantially higher temperature sensitivity than EPE-NHs, especially in low latitudes. The precipitation-temperature scaling relationships diverge markedly between EPE-Hs and EPE-NHs, with notable regional variations. These insights are pivotal for crafting region-specific early warning and adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks associated with extreme precipitation under the backdrop of global warming.
{"title":"Amplified temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation events following heat stress","authors":"Zhiling Zhou, Liping Zhang, Qin Zhang, Hui Cao, Hairong Zhang, Benjun Jia, Lina Liu, Zhenyu Tang, Jie Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00796-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00796-x","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates global extreme precipitation events (EPEs) during warm seasons, with a particular focus on EPEs preceded by extreme heat stress (EPE-Hs) and a comparative analysis with those not (EPE-NHs). Using reanalysis product and Earth System Model data, the spatiotemporal characteristics and temperature sensitivities of EPEs are analyzed. Results show that EPE-Hs, while less frequent, have longer duration and greater magnitude compared to EPE-NHs, particularly in high latitude regions. In the future, a significant increase is projected in the characteristics of EPE-Hs, in contrast to the stable duration and magnitude of EPE-NHs. EPE-Hs demonstrate substantially higher temperature sensitivity than EPE-NHs, especially in low latitudes. The precipitation-temperature scaling relationships diverge markedly between EPE-Hs and EPE-NHs, with notable regional variations. These insights are pivotal for crafting region-specific early warning and adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks associated with extreme precipitation under the backdrop of global warming.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00796-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142397801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-09DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00757-4
Patrick Ebel, Rochelle Schneider, Massimo Bonavita, Mariana Clare, Anna Jungbluth, Maryam Pourshamsi, Matthew Chantry, Mihai Alexe, Alessandro Sebastianelli, Marcin Chrust
This report summarises the main outcomes of the 4th edition of the workshop on Machine Learning (ML) for Earth System Observation and Prediction (ESOP / ML4ESOP) co-organised by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The 4-day workshop was held on 7-10 May 2024 in a hybrid format at the ESA Frascati site with an interactive online component, featuring over 46 expert talks with a record number of submissions and about 800 registrations. The workshop offered leading experts a platform to exchange on the current opportunities, challenges and future directions for applying ML methodology to ESOP. To structure the presentations and discussions, the workshop featured five main thematic areas covering key topics and emerging trends. The most promising research directions and significant outcomes were identified by each thematic area’s Working Group and are the focus of this document.
本报告总结了由欧洲航天局（ESA）和欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）联合举办的第四期地球系统观测和预测机器学习（ML）讲习班（ESOP / ML4ESOP）的主要成果。为期4天的讲习班于2024年5月7日至10日在欧空局弗拉斯卡蒂场址举行，讲习班采用混合形式，并设有在线互动环节，共有超过46场专家讲座，提交的论文数量创历史新高，约有800人报名参加。研讨会为顶尖专家提供了一个平台，就将 ML 方法应用于 ESOP 的当前机遇、挑战和未来方向进行交流。为了组织演讲和讨论，研讨会设置了五大主题领域，涵盖了关键议题和新兴趋势。每个专题领域的工作组都确定了最有前途的研究方向和重要成果，这也是本文件的重点。
{"title":"2024 ESA-ECMWF workshop report: current status, progress and opportunities in machine learning for Earth system observation and prediction","authors":"Patrick Ebel, Rochelle Schneider, Massimo Bonavita, Mariana Clare, Anna Jungbluth, Maryam Pourshamsi, Matthew Chantry, Mihai Alexe, Alessandro Sebastianelli, Marcin Chrust","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00757-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00757-4","url":null,"abstract":"This report summarises the main outcomes of the 4th edition of the workshop on Machine Learning (ML) for Earth System Observation and Prediction (ESOP / ML4ESOP) co-organised by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The 4-day workshop was held on 7-10 May 2024 in a hybrid format at the ESA Frascati site with an interactive online component, featuring over 46 expert talks with a record number of submissions and about 800 registrations. The workshop offered leading experts a platform to exchange on the current opportunities, challenges and future directions for applying ML methodology to ESOP. To structure the presentations and discussions, the workshop featured five main thematic areas covering key topics and emerging trends. The most promising research directions and significant outcomes were identified by each thematic area’s Working Group and are the focus of this document.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-5"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00757-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142397909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-09DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00782-3
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, Hui Lu, Bin Wang, Kun Yang, Haishan Chen
Known as the Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) significantly influences global weather and climate, but its potential for improving subseasonal-to-interannual predictions remains underexplored. Through coupled climate simulations and hindcast experiments, we uncovered interannual predictability of the 2003 European summer heatwave that persisted from June to August with devastating impacts. Hindcasts initialized from the atmosphere, land, and ocean states of a coupled simulation that assimilates soil moisture and soil temperature data over the TP show substantial skill in predicting this heatwave two years in advance. Hindcast sensitivity experiments isolated the indispensable role of the spring TP snow cover anomalies and their impact on the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in exciting the Rossby waves that contributed to the anomalous European summer temperature. These findings highlight the dominant and remote influence of the TP and motivate research on its role in enhancing the predictability of extreme events worldwide.
{"title":"Uncovering the interannual predictability of the 2003 European summer heatwave linked to the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, Hui Lu, Bin Wang, Kun Yang, Haishan Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00782-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00782-3","url":null,"abstract":"Known as the Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) significantly influences global weather and climate, but its potential for improving subseasonal-to-interannual predictions remains underexplored. Through coupled climate simulations and hindcast experiments, we uncovered interannual predictability of the 2003 European summer heatwave that persisted from June to August with devastating impacts. Hindcasts initialized from the atmosphere, land, and ocean states of a coupled simulation that assimilates soil moisture and soil temperature data over the TP show substantial skill in predicting this heatwave two years in advance. Hindcast sensitivity experiments isolated the indispensable role of the spring TP snow cover anomalies and their impact on the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in exciting the Rossby waves that contributed to the anomalous European summer temperature. These findings highlight the dominant and remote influence of the TP and motivate research on its role in enhancing the predictability of extreme events worldwide.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00782-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142397802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-08DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00792-1
Yu Liang, Shang-Ping Xie, Honghai Zhang
Deep convection in the Indo-Pacific warm pool is vital in driving global atmospheric overturning circulations. Year-to-year variations in the strength and location of warm pool precipitation can lead to significant local and downstream hydroclimatic impacts, including floods and droughts. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is recognized as a key factor in modulating interannual precipitation variations in this region, atmospheric internal variability is often as important. Here, through targeted atmospheric model experiments, we identify an intrinsic low-frequency atmospheric mode in the warm pool region during the austral summer, and show that its impact on seasonal rainfall is comparable to ENSO. This mode resembles the horizontal structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and may play a role in initiating ENSO as stochastic forcing. We show that this mode is not merely an episodic manifestation of MJO events but primarily arises from barotropic energy conversion aided by positive feedback between convection and circulation.
{"title":"An intrinsic low-frequency atmospheric mode of the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon","authors":"Yu Liang, Shang-Ping Xie, Honghai Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00792-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00792-1","url":null,"abstract":"Deep convection in the Indo-Pacific warm pool is vital in driving global atmospheric overturning circulations. Year-to-year variations in the strength and location of warm pool precipitation can lead to significant local and downstream hydroclimatic impacts, including floods and droughts. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is recognized as a key factor in modulating interannual precipitation variations in this region, atmospheric internal variability is often as important. Here, through targeted atmospheric model experiments, we identify an intrinsic low-frequency atmospheric mode in the warm pool region during the austral summer, and show that its impact on seasonal rainfall is comparable to ENSO. This mode resembles the horizontal structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and may play a role in initiating ENSO as stochastic forcing. We show that this mode is not merely an episodic manifestation of MJO events but primarily arises from barotropic energy conversion aided by positive feedback between convection and circulation.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00792-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142384272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-08DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00794-z
Andreas Dobler, Rasmus E. Benestad, Cristian Lussana, Oskar Landgren
Reanalysis and satellite data indicate a decreasing precipitation area in recent decades, affecting local water resources and precipitation intensities. We have used CMIP6 simulations to test the hypothesis of a shrinking precipitation area in a warming climate. Our analyses reveal that SSP5-8.5 projections show a robust decrease in the precipitation area between 50 °S and 50 °N, and globally in 75% of the simulations. The new findings support the observed relationship, although to a lesser extent than earlier found in reanalysis and satellite data. We find a poleward shift of precipitation, increasing the daily precipitation area in the Arctic from 18% to 28%. At lower latitudes the precipitation area is reduced due to a decreasing occurrence of precipitation. These changes are related to the expansion of low relative humidity zones in the lower-to-mid troposphere, specifically at the poleward edges of the subtropics.
{"title":"CMIP6 models project a shrinking precipitation area","authors":"Andreas Dobler, Rasmus E. Benestad, Cristian Lussana, Oskar Landgren","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00794-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00794-z","url":null,"abstract":"Reanalysis and satellite data indicate a decreasing precipitation area in recent decades, affecting local water resources and precipitation intensities. We have used CMIP6 simulations to test the hypothesis of a shrinking precipitation area in a warming climate. Our analyses reveal that SSP5-8.5 projections show a robust decrease in the precipitation area between 50 °S and 50 °N, and globally in 75% of the simulations. The new findings support the observed relationship, although to a lesser extent than earlier found in reanalysis and satellite data. We find a poleward shift of precipitation, increasing the daily precipitation area in the Arctic from 18% to 28%. At lower latitudes the precipitation area is reduced due to a decreasing occurrence of precipitation. These changes are related to the expansion of low relative humidity zones in the lower-to-mid troposphere, specifically at the poleward edges of the subtropics.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00794-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142384268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-07DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00795-y
Ruidan Chen, Jianbin Liu, Siao Tang, Xiaoqi Li
Compound events have become more frequent and diverse under global warming. This study specifically focuses on a type of compound events termed spatially compounding flood-nocturnal heat events over adjacent regions. Five flood hotspots are identified to compound with adjacent nocturnal heat. The flood and nocturnal heat are linked via a water vapor transport belt, with flood over the region of prominent water vapor convergence and ascending anomalies and nocturnal heat over the extension region with moderately increased humidity and weak vertical motion anomaly. The compound events for all the hotspots occur more frequently recently, with commonly positive contribution from the increasing trends of nocturnal temperature (TN) but various contribution from the trends of precipitation (Pr) and Pr-TN correlation. The positive contribution of enhanced Pr-TN correlation results from the enhanced variability of the circulation accompanied with water vapor transport. This study highlights the influence of atmospheric circulation variability on compound events.
{"title":"Spatially compounding flood-nocturnal heat events over adjacent regions in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Ruidan Chen, Jianbin Liu, Siao Tang, Xiaoqi Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00795-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00795-y","url":null,"abstract":"Compound events have become more frequent and diverse under global warming. This study specifically focuses on a type of compound events termed spatially compounding flood-nocturnal heat events over adjacent regions. Five flood hotspots are identified to compound with adjacent nocturnal heat. The flood and nocturnal heat are linked via a water vapor transport belt, with flood over the region of prominent water vapor convergence and ascending anomalies and nocturnal heat over the extension region with moderately increased humidity and weak vertical motion anomaly. The compound events for all the hotspots occur more frequently recently, with commonly positive contribution from the increasing trends of nocturnal temperature (TN) but various contribution from the trends of precipitation (Pr) and Pr-TN correlation. The positive contribution of enhanced Pr-TN correlation results from the enhanced variability of the circulation accompanied with water vapor transport. This study highlights the influence of atmospheric circulation variability on compound events.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00795-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-07DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00790-3
Jae-Heung Park, Young-Min Yang, Yoo-Geun Ham, Hyun-Su Jo, Hyo-Jin Park, So-Eun Park, Chao Liu, Gagan Mandal, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug
The Atlantic Niño, a primary climatic variability mode in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, exhibits pronounced variability not only in boreal summer but also in winter. However, the role of the winter Atlantic Niño in trans-basin interactions remains underexplored compared to its summer counterpart. Through analysis of observational reanalysis data since the mid-twentieth century, here we found that the winter Atlantic Niño significantly influences the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), surpassing the impact of summer Atlantic Niño, with a longer lead time. This effect is reasonably captured in the CMIP6 Historical simulations from a multi-model ensemble perspective. Further analysis of the global warming scenario projects that the influence of winter Atlantic Niño on ENSO will persist into the future, in contrast to the reduced impact of summer Atlantic Niño. Therefore, these findings underscore the importance of further investigating the winter Atlantic Niño to gain a comprehensive understanding of trans-basin interactions and their future changes.
{"title":"Significant winter Atlantic Niño effect on ENSO and its future projection","authors":"Jae-Heung Park, Young-Min Yang, Yoo-Geun Ham, Hyun-Su Jo, Hyo-Jin Park, So-Eun Park, Chao Liu, Gagan Mandal, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00790-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00790-3","url":null,"abstract":"The Atlantic Niño, a primary climatic variability mode in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, exhibits pronounced variability not only in boreal summer but also in winter. However, the role of the winter Atlantic Niño in trans-basin interactions remains underexplored compared to its summer counterpart. Through analysis of observational reanalysis data since the mid-twentieth century, here we found that the winter Atlantic Niño significantly influences the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), surpassing the impact of summer Atlantic Niño, with a longer lead time. This effect is reasonably captured in the CMIP6 Historical simulations from a multi-model ensemble perspective. Further analysis of the global warming scenario projects that the influence of winter Atlantic Niño on ENSO will persist into the future, in contrast to the reduced impact of summer Atlantic Niño. Therefore, these findings underscore the importance of further investigating the winter Atlantic Niño to gain a comprehensive understanding of trans-basin interactions and their future changes.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00790-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using observation data and numerical simulations, we have demonstrated that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) can predict extreme high temperatures (EHTs) in South Asia in June. The vertical structure of the QBO plays a crucial role in this prediction. When the QBO in June shows easterlies (westerlies) at 50 hPa and westerlies (easterlies) at 70 hPa, more (fewer) EHT events occur. This likely results from the QBO’s vertical structure causing positive (negative) temperature anomalies in the lower stratosphere and negative (positive) static stability anomalies near the tropical tropopause. These anomalies enhance (weaken) convective activity over the equatorial Indian Ocean, leading to anomalous circulation with ascending (descending) air over the equatorial Indian Ocean and descending (ascending) air over northern and central South Asia. This suppresses (promotes) convection over northern and central South Asia, affecting cloud formation and precipitation. Consequently, more (less) solar radiation reaches the region, along with weaker (stronger) evaporative cooling effects, warming (cooling) the surface and creating a background state conducive to (against) EHT events. Additionally, the opposite zonal winds at 30 hPa and 50 hPa in April may serve as a reference factor for predicting the probability of EHT events in northern and central South Asia. This study provides a potential approach for forecasting tropospheric extreme weather events based on stratospheric signals.
{"title":"The impact of the QBO vertical structure on June extreme high temperatures in South Asia","authors":"Jiali Luo, Fuhai Luo, Fei Xie, Xiao Chen, Zhenhua Wang, Wenshou Tian, Fangrui Zhu, Mingzhen Gu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00791-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00791-2","url":null,"abstract":"Using observation data and numerical simulations, we have demonstrated that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) can predict extreme high temperatures (EHTs) in South Asia in June. The vertical structure of the QBO plays a crucial role in this prediction. When the QBO in June shows easterlies (westerlies) at 50 hPa and westerlies (easterlies) at 70 hPa, more (fewer) EHT events occur. This likely results from the QBO’s vertical structure causing positive (negative) temperature anomalies in the lower stratosphere and negative (positive) static stability anomalies near the tropical tropopause. These anomalies enhance (weaken) convective activity over the equatorial Indian Ocean, leading to anomalous circulation with ascending (descending) air over the equatorial Indian Ocean and descending (ascending) air over northern and central South Asia. This suppresses (promotes) convection over northern and central South Asia, affecting cloud formation and precipitation. Consequently, more (less) solar radiation reaches the region, along with weaker (stronger) evaporative cooling effects, warming (cooling) the surface and creating a background state conducive to (against) EHT events. Additionally, the opposite zonal winds at 30 hPa and 50 hPa in April may serve as a reference factor for predicting the probability of EHT events in northern and central South Asia. This study provides a potential approach for forecasting tropospheric extreme weather events based on stratospheric signals.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00791-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：