Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00821-z
Marine Lanet, Laurent Li, Antoine Ehret, Solène Turquety, Hervé Le Treut
Summer 2022 was exceptionally hot and dry in Europe and especially in Southwest France, where the most important wildfires since 1949 had serious environmental and socio-economic impacts. Here we conduct an impact-oriented climate change attribution study by first investigating which climate indices are the most correlated with the burnt area between 2003 and 2022. We find that an index combining soil moisture integrated over 6 months and temperature and vapour pressure deficit integrated over 3 months is correlated with large burnt areas. Using the index developed, we estimate that anthropogenic climate change made climate conditions propitious for wildfire development, such as the ones of July 2022, two times more likely, with a return period of 13 years in the current climate. Our study raises the question of the sustainability of the Landes Forest and stresses the urgent need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.
{"title":"Attribution of summer 2022 extreme wildfire season in Southwest France to anthropogenic climate change","authors":"Marine Lanet, Laurent Li, Antoine Ehret, Solène Turquety, Hervé Le Treut","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00821-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00821-z","url":null,"abstract":"Summer 2022 was exceptionally hot and dry in Europe and especially in Southwest France, where the most important wildfires since 1949 had serious environmental and socio-economic impacts. Here we conduct an impact-oriented climate change attribution study by first investigating which climate indices are the most correlated with the burnt area between 2003 and 2022. We find that an index combining soil moisture integrated over 6 months and temperature and vapour pressure deficit integrated over 3 months is correlated with large burnt areas. Using the index developed, we estimate that anthropogenic climate change made climate conditions propitious for wildfire development, such as the ones of July 2022, two times more likely, with a return period of 13 years in the current climate. Our study raises the question of the sustainability of the Landes Forest and stresses the urgent need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00821-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00812-0
Robert Blaga, Sneha Gautam
Low-cost particulate matter sensors (LCS) are vital for improving the spatial and temporal resolution of air quality data, supplementing sparsely placed official monitoring stations. Despite their benefits, LCS readings can be biased due to the physical properties of aerosol particles and device limitations. An optimization model is essential to enhance LCS data accuracy. This paper presents a calibration study of the LCS network of Timișoara, Romania. The calibration began by selecting LCS devices near National Air Quality Monitoring Network (NAQMN) stations and developing parametric models, choosing the best for broader application. Plantower, Sensirion, and Honeywell sensors showed comparable accuracy. Calibration involved clusters within a 750 m radius around NAQMN stations. Models incorporating RH corrections and multiple linear regression (MLR) were fitted. The best model was validated against data from unseen sensors, leading to mean bias errors (MBE) within 9-17% and RMSEs of 33-35%, within sensor uncertainty margins. Applied to the city-wide LCS network, the model identified several stations regularly exceeding the EU daily PM10 threshold, unnoticed by NAQMN stations due to their limited coverage. The study highlights the necessity of granular monitoring to accurately capture urban air quality variations.
{"title":"Improving PM10 sensor accuracy in urban areas through calibration in Timișoara","authors":"Robert Blaga, Sneha Gautam","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00812-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00812-0","url":null,"abstract":"Low-cost particulate matter sensors (LCS) are vital for improving the spatial and temporal resolution of air quality data, supplementing sparsely placed official monitoring stations. Despite their benefits, LCS readings can be biased due to the physical properties of aerosol particles and device limitations. An optimization model is essential to enhance LCS data accuracy. This paper presents a calibration study of the LCS network of Timișoara, Romania. The calibration began by selecting LCS devices near National Air Quality Monitoring Network (NAQMN) stations and developing parametric models, choosing the best for broader application. Plantower, Sensirion, and Honeywell sensors showed comparable accuracy. Calibration involved clusters within a 750 m radius around NAQMN stations. Models incorporating RH corrections and multiple linear regression (MLR) were fitted. The best model was validated against data from unseen sensors, leading to mean bias errors (MBE) within 9-17% and RMSEs of 33-35%, within sensor uncertainty margins. Applied to the city-wide LCS network, the model identified several stations regularly exceeding the EU daily PM10 threshold, unnoticed by NAQMN stations due to their limited coverage. The study highlights the necessity of granular monitoring to accurately capture urban air quality variations.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00812-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142563052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ice nucleating particles (INPs) affect the cloud radiative budget in the rapidly warming Arctic by changing the cloud liquid/ice phase balance. Dust emitted in the Arctic (Arctic dust) has been suggested to be a major contributor to INPs in the Arctic lower troposphere. However, how Arctic dust and its impacts on ice nucleation change with Arctic warming has not been explored. Here we find that the simulated dust emission flux in the Arctic (>60°N) in global model simulations increases by 20% from 1981–1990 to 2011–2020. This increase weakens the sensitivity of ice nucleation in Arctic lower tropospheric clouds to warming by 40% compared to the case without considering Arctic dust emission increases. Our results demonstrate a better understanding of the counterbalancing feedbacks of Arctic dust (i.e., increasing emissions and decreasing ice nucleation efficiency) is needed for more accurate estimates of changes in ice nucleation in the rapidly changing Arctic climate.
{"title":"Increasing Arctic dust suppresses the reduction of ice nucleation in the Arctic lower troposphere by warming","authors":"Hitoshi Matsui, Kei Kawai, Yutaka Tobo, Yoshinori Iizuka, Sumito Matoba","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00811-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00811-1","url":null,"abstract":"Ice nucleating particles (INPs) affect the cloud radiative budget in the rapidly warming Arctic by changing the cloud liquid/ice phase balance. Dust emitted in the Arctic (Arctic dust) has been suggested to be a major contributor to INPs in the Arctic lower troposphere. However, how Arctic dust and its impacts on ice nucleation change with Arctic warming has not been explored. Here we find that the simulated dust emission flux in the Arctic (>60°N) in global model simulations increases by 20% from 1981–1990 to 2011–2020. This increase weakens the sensitivity of ice nucleation in Arctic lower tropospheric clouds to warming by 40% compared to the case without considering Arctic dust emission increases. Our results demonstrate a better understanding of the counterbalancing feedbacks of Arctic dust (i.e., increasing emissions and decreasing ice nucleation efficiency) is needed for more accurate estimates of changes in ice nucleation in the rapidly changing Arctic climate.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00811-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142562001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-30DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00819-7
Jiawei Zhu, Zhiwei Wu
The impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on summertime weather in the Northern Hemisphere have garnered considerable attention. Despite the extensive focus on this relationship, the influence of tropical systems on Arctic regions has been relatively underexplored, with only a limited number of existing studies concentrating exclusively on either dynamic or thermodynamic effects. This study aims to address this gap by examining a barotropic anomalous circulation over the Arctic region associated with Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall. The observed anomalous circulation exhibits a distinct zonally dipole pattern, characterized by anomalous high pressure over Northern Canada and Asia, coupled with anomalous low pressure located east of Greenland. Verification through model experiments demonstrates that the diabatic heating of ISM rainfall contribute to the formation of the observed ISM-related circulation. The modulation of surface clear sky downwelling longwave radiation ( $${{DLR}}_{{clear; sky}}$$ ) by the circulation anomalies over the Arctic modified surface thermal conditions, thereby influencing subsequent variations in sea ice thickness and concentration. Under anomalous high pressure, $${{DLR}}_{{clear; sky}}$$ increases, leading to a decline in sea ice thickness, and vice versa. Additionally, from a dynamic standpoint, low-level wind-driven sea ice drift helps shape the spatial distribution and extent of sea ice cover. Besides, the impacts of ISM on Arctic sea ice are largely independent of contemporary ENSO. These findings present fresh perspectives on the role of extrapolar phenomena, such as the ISM, in driving variability in Arctic sea ice during the summer months. This enhanced comprehension holds promise for enhancing predictions of changes in summertime Arctic sea ice extent.
{"title":"Indian summer monsoon’s role in shaping variability in Arctic sea ice","authors":"Jiawei Zhu, Zhiwei Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00819-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00819-7","url":null,"abstract":"The impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on summertime weather in the Northern Hemisphere have garnered considerable attention. Despite the extensive focus on this relationship, the influence of tropical systems on Arctic regions has been relatively underexplored, with only a limited number of existing studies concentrating exclusively on either dynamic or thermodynamic effects. This study aims to address this gap by examining a barotropic anomalous circulation over the Arctic region associated with Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall. The observed anomalous circulation exhibits a distinct zonally dipole pattern, characterized by anomalous high pressure over Northern Canada and Asia, coupled with anomalous low pressure located east of Greenland. Verification through model experiments demonstrates that the diabatic heating of ISM rainfall contribute to the formation of the observed ISM-related circulation. The modulation of surface clear sky downwelling longwave radiation ( $${{DLR}}_{{clear; sky}}$$ ) by the circulation anomalies over the Arctic modified surface thermal conditions, thereby influencing subsequent variations in sea ice thickness and concentration. Under anomalous high pressure, $${{DLR}}_{{clear; sky}}$$ increases, leading to a decline in sea ice thickness, and vice versa. Additionally, from a dynamic standpoint, low-level wind-driven sea ice drift helps shape the spatial distribution and extent of sea ice cover. Besides, the impacts of ISM on Arctic sea ice are largely independent of contemporary ENSO. These findings present fresh perspectives on the role of extrapolar phenomena, such as the ISM, in driving variability in Arctic sea ice during the summer months. This enhanced comprehension holds promise for enhancing predictions of changes in summertime Arctic sea ice extent.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00819-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-30DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00820-0
Sanjit Kumar Mondal, Soon-Il An, Seung-Ki Min, Tong Jiang, Buda Su
Our understanding of drought evolution and land-atmosphere interactions under climate mitigation scenarios remains limited. Here, we analyzed future drought under net-zero and net-negative emission scenarios using the Community Earth System Model version 2, particularly focusing on three atmospheric CO2 states: linearly increases, decreases, and a return to the initial state. Interestingly, results revealed that net-zero emissions are more effective for drought mitigation than net-negative targets. Drying trends and drought characteristics — such as the duration, frequency, intensity, and area expansion are prominently increased under net-negative emissions due to higher potential evapotranspiration (PET). This is because the soil moisture and temperature couplings are stronger over drought regions and years, especially under net-negative forcing, with notable impacts in Central Africa and South Asia. Nevertheless, both target scenarios offer regional benefits, such as weakened dryness. This suggests that mitigating CO2 alone may not be sufficient to manage future droughts, highlighting the need for advanced water management strategies.
{"title":"Enhanced soil moisture–temperature coupling could exacerbate drought under net-negative emissions","authors":"Sanjit Kumar Mondal, Soon-Il An, Seung-Ki Min, Tong Jiang, Buda Su","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00820-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00820-0","url":null,"abstract":"Our understanding of drought evolution and land-atmosphere interactions under climate mitigation scenarios remains limited. Here, we analyzed future drought under net-zero and net-negative emission scenarios using the Community Earth System Model version 2, particularly focusing on three atmospheric CO2 states: linearly increases, decreases, and a return to the initial state. Interestingly, results revealed that net-zero emissions are more effective for drought mitigation than net-negative targets. Drying trends and drought characteristics — such as the duration, frequency, intensity, and area expansion are prominently increased under net-negative emissions due to higher potential evapotranspiration (PET). This is because the soil moisture and temperature couplings are stronger over drought regions and years, especially under net-negative forcing, with notable impacts in Central Africa and South Asia. Nevertheless, both target scenarios offer regional benefits, such as weakened dryness. This suggests that mitigating CO2 alone may not be sufficient to manage future droughts, highlighting the need for advanced water management strategies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00820-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142541654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2
Thessa M. Beck, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hicham Achebak, Ana M. Vicedo–Cabrera, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joan Ballester
The record-breaking temperatures in Europe during the 2022 summer were associated with over 60,000 heat-related deaths. By combining epidemiological models with detection and attribution techniques, we attribute half of this mortality burden (~56% [95% CI 39–77%]) to anthropogenic warming. Likewise, this applies to all sexes, ages, and heat-related mortality burdens during previous years (2015–2021). Our results urgently call for increasing ambition in adaptation and mitigation.
2022 年夏季，欧洲气温创下历史新高，超过 60,000 人死于高温。通过将流行病学模型与检测和归因技术相结合，我们将这一死亡负担的一半（约 56% [95% CI 39-77%]）归因于人为变暖。同样，这也适用于所有性别、年龄以及前几年（2015-2021 年）与热相关的死亡率。我们的研究结果迫切要求提高适应和减缓气候变化的雄心。
{"title":"Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer","authors":"Thessa M. Beck, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hicham Achebak, Ana M. Vicedo–Cabrera, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joan Ballester","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2","url":null,"abstract":"The record-breaking temperatures in Europe during the 2022 summer were associated with over 60,000 heat-related deaths. By combining epidemiological models with detection and attribution techniques, we attribute half of this mortality burden (~56% [95% CI 39–77%]) to anthropogenic warming. Likewise, this applies to all sexes, ages, and heat-related mortality burdens during previous years (2015–2021). Our results urgently call for increasing ambition in adaptation and mitigation.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-6"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00783-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-29DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00815-x
Ke Gui, Xutao Zhang, Huizheng Che, Lei Li, Yu Zheng, Hujia Zhao, Zhaoliang Zeng, Yucong Miao, Hong Wang, Zhili Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Hong-Li Ren, Jian Li, Xiaoye Zhang
The Southeastern Siberia (SES) region has recently experienced increasingly extensive wildfires in spring, which have threatened its large carbon sequestration capacity from vast forests and peatlands. However, the underlying mechanisms propelling the increased fires and their potential responses to future climate change remain unclear. Here, by using reanalysis data and climate model output together with a deep learning model, we explore the relationship between positive-phase North Atlantic Tripole (NAT) sea-surface temperature anomalies and SES wildfire increases and project the future trend in SES wildfire intensities under climate change. We found that the positive-phase April NAT enhances the Siberian anticyclone, causing increased temperatures and snowmelt via strengthened transport of warm-air advection into the SES region. The latter process heightens the exposure of local high-density peatlands to favorable conditions for fire ignition and leads to more intensive wildfire incidents. We further demonstrate that the projected NAT variations can drive interdecadal changes in future April SES wildfires. With future phase shifting of NAT modes under global warming, the regionally averaged burned area in SES could be increased by 47–62% under different warming scenarios from 1982–2014 to 2015–2100. Our findings reveal the climate-driven escalation of future wildfires in SES in the context of global warming and call for active and urgent fire management strategies to mitigate the fire risk.
西伯利亚东南部（SES）地区最近在春季经历了越来越大范围的野火，这威胁到了该地区大片森林和泥炭地的巨大碳固存能力。然而，推动火灾增加的根本机制及其对未来气候变化的潜在反应仍不清楚。在此，我们利用再分析数据和气候模式输出以及深度学习模型，探索了正相北大西洋三极（NAT）海面温度异常与SES野火增加之间的关系，并预测了气候变化下SES野火强度的未来趋势。我们发现，4 月正相北大西洋三极海面温度异常增强了西伯利亚反气旋，通过加强暖空气向 SES 地区的平流输送，导致气温升高和融雪增加。后一过程使当地高密度泥炭地更容易受到火源条件的影响，从而导致更密集的野火事件。我们进一步证明，预测的自然通风变化可推动未来 4 月 SES 野火的年代际变化。随着未来全球变暖下自然通风模式的阶段性转变，在 1982-2014 年至 2015-2100 年不同的变暖情景下，SES 的区域平均燃烧面积可能会增加 47-62% 。我们的研究结果揭示了在全球变暖的背景下，中东部地区未来野火的气候驱动升级，并呼吁采取积极而紧迫的火灾管理策略来降低火灾风险。
{"title":"Future climate-driven escalation of Southeastern Siberia wildfires revealed by deep learning","authors":"Ke Gui, Xutao Zhang, Huizheng Che, Lei Li, Yu Zheng, Hujia Zhao, Zhaoliang Zeng, Yucong Miao, Hong Wang, Zhili Wang, Yaqiang Wang, Hong-Li Ren, Jian Li, Xiaoye Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00815-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00815-x","url":null,"abstract":"The Southeastern Siberia (SES) region has recently experienced increasingly extensive wildfires in spring, which have threatened its large carbon sequestration capacity from vast forests and peatlands. However, the underlying mechanisms propelling the increased fires and their potential responses to future climate change remain unclear. Here, by using reanalysis data and climate model output together with a deep learning model, we explore the relationship between positive-phase North Atlantic Tripole (NAT) sea-surface temperature anomalies and SES wildfire increases and project the future trend in SES wildfire intensities under climate change. We found that the positive-phase April NAT enhances the Siberian anticyclone, causing increased temperatures and snowmelt via strengthened transport of warm-air advection into the SES region. The latter process heightens the exposure of local high-density peatlands to favorable conditions for fire ignition and leads to more intensive wildfire incidents. We further demonstrate that the projected NAT variations can drive interdecadal changes in future April SES wildfires. With future phase shifting of NAT modes under global warming, the regionally averaged burned area in SES could be increased by 47–62% under different warming scenarios from 1982–2014 to 2015–2100. Our findings reveal the climate-driven escalation of future wildfires in SES in the context of global warming and call for active and urgent fire management strategies to mitigate the fire risk.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00815-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142525731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-28DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00818-8
Xin Song, Xiao-Bing Li, Bin Yuan, Xianjun He, Yubin Chen, Sihang Wang, Yibo Huangfu, Yuwen Peng, Chunsheng Zhang, Aiming Liu, Honglong Yang, Chanfang Liu, Jin Li, Min Shao
The vertical variations and key drivers of ozone and its precursors, namely NOx and VOCs, in the atmospheric boundary layer, have vital impacts on surface ozone budgets but are poorly understood so far. Using online gradient measurements from a 356 m tower, we obtained continuous vertical profiles of ozone and its precursors, which exhibited strong gradients throughout the day. In the daytime, the vertical gradients of ozone precursors are significantly regulated by reactions with OH radicals. At night, our observations confirmed more intense VOC reactions with NO3 radicals in the residual layer than in the boundary layer. Additionally, we found that residual layer entrainment could contribute to over half of the boundary-layer ozone enhancements in the morning periods. Our results underscore the importance of considering vertical changes of ozone and its precursors in the atmospheric boundary layer when developing future ozone mitigation strategies.
{"title":"Elucidating key factors in regulating budgets of ozone and its precursors in atmospheric boundary layer","authors":"Xin Song, Xiao-Bing Li, Bin Yuan, Xianjun He, Yubin Chen, Sihang Wang, Yibo Huangfu, Yuwen Peng, Chunsheng Zhang, Aiming Liu, Honglong Yang, Chanfang Liu, Jin Li, Min Shao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00818-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00818-8","url":null,"abstract":"The vertical variations and key drivers of ozone and its precursors, namely NOx and VOCs, in the atmospheric boundary layer, have vital impacts on surface ozone budgets but are poorly understood so far. Using online gradient measurements from a 356 m tower, we obtained continuous vertical profiles of ozone and its precursors, which exhibited strong gradients throughout the day. In the daytime, the vertical gradients of ozone precursors are significantly regulated by reactions with OH radicals. At night, our observations confirmed more intense VOC reactions with NO3 radicals in the residual layer than in the boundary layer. Additionally, we found that residual layer entrainment could contribute to over half of the boundary-layer ozone enhancements in the morning periods. Our results underscore the importance of considering vertical changes of ozone and its precursors in the atmospheric boundary layer when developing future ozone mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00818-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142519201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Coral reconstruction often serves as a major proxy of high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) variability beyond the instrumental era. However, coral reconstructions are sparse and are usually studied for interannual variability, with few studies on the monthly features. In this study, we reconstruct the monthly SST spatial field by applying the paleoclimate data assimilation method to the coral records of the latest CoralHydro2k data set for the instrument period of 1880–2000. A comparison with observed SST variability shows that our assimilated tropical SST variability performs reasonably well for the seasonal cycle and monthly ENSO characteristics, notably the phase-locking and onset timing, and more realistic spatial fields relative to the model simulations. This study suggests the feasibility of applying paleoclimate data assimilation to reconstruct the monthly SST in the historical period.
{"title":"Reconstructing tropical monthly sea surface temperature variability by assimilating coral proxy datasets","authors":"Wenqing Hu, Liang Ning, Zhengyu Liu, Jian Liu, Fen Wu, Mi Yan, Leilei Jiang, Lili Lei, Fangmiao Xing, Haohao Sun, Kefan Chen, Yanmin Qin, Weiyi Sun, Qin Wen, Benyue Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00816-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00816-w","url":null,"abstract":"Coral reconstruction often serves as a major proxy of high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) variability beyond the instrumental era. However, coral reconstructions are sparse and are usually studied for interannual variability, with few studies on the monthly features. In this study, we reconstruct the monthly SST spatial field by applying the paleoclimate data assimilation method to the coral records of the latest CoralHydro2k data set for the instrument period of 1880–2000. A comparison with observed SST variability shows that our assimilated tropical SST variability performs reasonably well for the seasonal cycle and monthly ENSO characteristics, notably the phase-locking and onset timing, and more realistic spatial fields relative to the model simulations. This study suggests the feasibility of applying paleoclimate data assimilation to reconstruct the monthly SST in the historical period.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00816-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142519177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-27DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00805-z
Hainan Gong, Kangjie Ma, Bo Liu, Judah Cohen, Lin Wang
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been observed to undergo distinct decadal structural fluctuations that significantly influence regional weather and climate. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms behind the AO’s spatial nonstationarity is critical for improving climate predictions related to the AO. We present evidence that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) plays a pivotal role in modulating AO’s Pacific center in recent decades. The poleward amplified cooling associated with negative AMO enhances the north-south temperature gradient and results the strengthened westerly winds and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) responses, which reflects more planetary waves from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. This enhances the atmospheric coupling between these regions and leads to a more pronounced Pacific center within the AO pattern. Numerical simulations from ECHAM5 and 35 CMIP6 models further corroborate the essential role of the AMO. These findings advance our understanding of the mechanisms driving the variability of the AO pattern.
据观测，北极涛动（AO）经历了明显的十年结构性波动，对区域天气和气候产生了重大影响。了解北极涛动空间非平稳性背后的驱动因素和机制对于改善与北极涛动相关的气候预测至关重要。我们提出的证据表明，近几十年来，大西洋多年涛动（AMO）在调节涛动的太平洋中心方面发挥了关键作用。与负AMO相关的极向放大冷却增强了南北温度梯度，导致西风和平流层极地漩涡（SPV）反应增强，从而将更多的行星波从北太平洋反射到北大西洋。这增强了这些地区之间的大气耦合，导致 AO 模式中的太平洋中心更加明显。ECHAM5和35个CMIP6模式的数值模拟进一步证实了AMO的重要作用。这些发现加深了我们对 AO 模式变率驱动机制的理解。
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