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Divergent mountain runoff dynamics but declining per capita freshwater availability across the Third Pole by mid-21st century 到21世纪中叶,第三极地区不同的山地径流动态和人均淡水供应的下降
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01313-4
Lei Wang, Junshui Long, Deliang Chen, Ning Li, Xiuping Li, Tandong Yao
The mountainous Third Pole is a critical source of freshwater for water resource management across Asia, yet the historical and future dynamics of per-capita freshwater supply in this region remain poorly constrained by observations from a coherent, pan-regional perspective. Here, we show that by the end of the 21st century, mountain runoff in the Third Pole’s monsoon domain will increase substantially, whereas runoff in the westerlies domain will experience a non-significant decline. This finding challenges the prevailing paradigm that future runoff across the entire Third Pole will follow a unidirectional increasing trend as future precipitation. Regarding long-term freshwater availability till the end-of-21-century (1960‒2100), although mountain runoff shows a contrasting pattern with increase (decrease) at first and then decrease (increase) in the westerlies (monsoon) domain, the per-capita freshwater supply (for mountain basins and their downstream dependent regions) drops a lot in both westerlies and monsoon domains from the past (1960‒1970) to the near future (2030‒2050) due to rapid population increase. These findings provide vital information to cope with fast-growing water demands and achieve Sustainable Development Goals.
多山的第三极是整个亚洲水资源管理的重要淡水来源,但该地区人均淡水供应的历史和未来动态仍然很少受到从连贯的泛区域角度观察的限制。在这里,我们表明,到21世纪末,第三极季风区的山地径流将大幅增加,而西风带区的径流将经历不显著的下降。这一发现挑战了流行的范式,即整个第三极的未来径流将随着未来降水的单向增加而增加。就21世纪末(1960-2100)的长期淡水供应而言,尽管西风带(季风)域的山地径流呈现先增加(减少)后减少(增加)的对比格局,但由于人口的快速增长,从过去(1960-1970)到近期(2030-2050),西风带和季风域的人均淡水供应量(山区盆地及其下游依赖区域)都大幅下降。这些发现为应对快速增长的用水需求和实现可持续发展目标提供了重要信息。
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引用次数: 0
Unprecedented recent summer warming and cross-sphere hydrological coupling in Asian Water Towers 近年来亚洲水塔史无前例的夏季变暖和跨圈水文耦合
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01254-y
Youping Chen, Feng Chen, Mao Hu, Xiaoen Zhao, Honghua Cao, Shijie Wang, Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen, Max C. A. Torbenson, Tiyuan Hou, Hongfan Xu, Yufeng Lin
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引用次数: 0
A brief history of Asian summer monsoon evolution in the Cenozoic era 新生代亚洲夏季风演化简史
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01259-7
S. Abhik, Fabio A. Capitanio, B. N. Goswami, Alexander Farnsworth, Peter Clift, Dietmar Dommenget
The evolution of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) over geological timescale remains uncertain1,2,3 despite its fundamental role in shaping regional climate4,5, ecosystems6,7, and civilizations8. Using a series of time-slice simulations with a paleo-climate model, we assess how India–Eurasia collision tectonics9,10, Tibetan Plateau (TP) uplift11,12, and atmospheric CO2 variability13 influenced ASM evolution through the Cenozoic. Our simulation-based results suggest that ASM intensification was contingent on the TP exceeding an areal mean elevation of ~ 3.5 km in the late Eocene–Oligocene (27–38 million years ago, Ma), which strengthened the upper-tropospheric temperature gradient, promoted the seasonal northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and restructured atmospheric circulation. Initially confined to East Asia14, monsoonal rainfall expanded across South Asia by the Oligocene, coinciding with enhanced circulation and reversing the meridional relative sea surface temperature gradient in the Neotethys. While TP uplift played the primary role in early ASM evolution, declining atmospheric CO2 levels became increasingly influential after the late Miocene. These findings, supported by sedimentary records of weathering and erosion15,16, underscore the dominant role of TP in climate–tectonic interactions and ASM evolution over geological timescales.
亚洲夏季风(ASM)在地质时间尺度上的演变仍然不确定,尽管它在形成区域气候4,5、生态系统6,7和文明8,6中起着重要作用。通过一系列古气候模式的时间片模拟,我们评估了印度-欧亚大陆碰撞构造9,10、青藏高原隆升9,12和大气CO2变率13对新生代ASM演化的影响。模拟结果表明,晚始新世-渐新世(2700 - 3800万年前,Ma)的平均海拔高度超过~ 3.5 km时,南亚高原的强度增强,加强了对流层上层温度梯度,促进了热带辐合带(ITCZ)的季节性北移,重构了大气环流。季风性降雨最初局限于东亚14,在渐新世扩展到南亚,与环流增强相一致,并逆转了新特提斯时期经向相对海面温度梯度。尽管青藏高原的早期演化主要是由TP隆升引起的,但在晚中新世之后,大气CO2水平下降的影响越来越大。这些发现得到了沉积风化和侵蚀记录的支持15,16,强调了TP在气候-构造相互作用和地质时间尺度上的ASM演化中的主导作用。
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引用次数: 0
Inter-tropical African precipitation regime shifts dominated by tropical easterly jet 热带偏东急流主导的热带间非洲降水变化
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01312-5
Shuai-Lei Yao, Renguang Wu, Pengfei Lin, Pao-Shin Chu, Haosu Tang, Pengfei Wang
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引用次数: 0
Aerosolisation of microalgae: unveiling dimethyl-sulfide emissions during bubbling 微藻的雾化:在冒泡期间揭示二甲基硫化物的排放
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01305-4
Bernadette Rosati, Jane Tygesen Skønager, Marat Bektassov, Zihui Teng, Marianne Glasius, Marta Barbato, Merete Bilde, Kasper Vita Kristensen, Sylvie V. M. Tesson
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引用次数: 0
Local biophysical climate feedback from vegetation responses to lower aerosol pollution 从植被对较低气溶胶污染的响应中获得的本地生物物理气候反馈
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01310-7
Jun Ge, Xu Yue, Mengyuan Mu, Xin Miao, Xin Huang, Bo Qiu, Weidong Guo
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引用次数: 0
A structural correction to atmospheric evaporative demand narrows the gap between offline aridity diagnostics and Earth system model projections 对大气蒸发需求的结构校正缩小了离线干旱诊断和地球系统模式预估之间的差距
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01306-3
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi
Offline aridity and drought diagnostics typically project widespread terrestrial drying under climate change, whereas fully coupled Earth system models (ESMs) often simulate modest or regionally heterogeneous changes—and in some regions increasing—runoff. This long-standing divergence has been attributed largely to missing vegetation physiological effects and the neglect of sub-annual climate variability in offline diagnostic frameworks. Here, we show that a more fundamental issue is the violation of the diagnostic framework’s structural requirement that potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation (P) act as independent climatic constraints. Using Penman and Penman–Monteith formulations, each with and without thermodynamic deflation via the complementary evaporation principle (CEP), we demonstrate that land–atmosphere feedbacks embedded in conventional PET estimates induce strong negative P–PET correlations (−0.45 ± 0.29; mean ± standard deviation) across land surfaces, which collapse toward near zero (−0.02 ± 0.42) after CEP deflation. Preserving PET–P independence substantially reduces inflation of the aridity index and brings offline diagnostic ET trends closer to ESM projections under a strong-emission scenario (from +0.61 to +0.39 mm yr−2; ESM mean: +0.28 mm yr−2). These results indicate that structural inconsistencies—rather than missing physiological processes alone—play a central role in the mismatch between offline diagnostics and ESM hydrology. Ensuring that PET is not inflated by land–atmosphere feedbacks is therefore essential for theoretically valid offline hydrologic assessments under a warming climate.
离线干旱和干旱诊断通常预测气候变化下广泛的陆地干旱,而完全耦合的地球系统模型(esm)通常模拟适度或区域异质变化(在某些地区增加径流)。这种长期存在的差异在很大程度上归因于离线诊断框架中缺少植被生理效应和忽视亚年际气候变率。在这里,我们表明一个更根本的问题是违反了诊断框架的结构要求,即潜在蒸散(PET)和降水(P)作为独立的气候约束。使用Penman和Penman - monteith公式,通过补充蒸发原理(CEP),每种公式都有或没有热力学通货紧缩,我们证明了嵌入在传统PET估计中的陆地-大气反馈在陆地表面上引起强烈的负P-PET相关性(- 0.45±0.29;平均值±标准差),在CEP通货紧缩后,它们崩溃到接近零(- 0.02±0.42)。保持PET-P的独立性大大降低了干旱指数的膨胀,并使离线诊断ET趋势更接近强排放情景下的ESM预测(从+0.61到+0.39 mm /年−2;ESM平均值:+0.28 mm /年−2)。这些结果表明,结构上的不一致——而不仅仅是生理过程的缺失——在离线诊断和ESM水文之间的不匹配中起着核心作用。因此,确保PET不因陆地-大气反馈而膨胀,对于气候变暖下理论上有效的离线水文评估至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Single hemisphere air-sea interaction shapes the South Pacific surface warming and wind change 单半球海气相互作用影响南太平洋表面变暖和风的变化
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01299-z
Jian Ma, Biao Feng, Robin Chadwick, Dongxiao Wang, Guihua Wang, Chen Zhou, Jun Ying, Xiao Guo
The projected increase in the sea surface temperature (SST) into the 21st century exhibits a robust southeastern minimum (SEM) pattern in the subtropical Pacific. Despite the agreement between observations and climate models, this pattern remains poorly addressed, with gaps in the proposed mechanisms. Here, we discover a novel air-sea interaction responsible for SEM formation, associated with the changes in the South Pacific subtropical anticyclone (SPSA) and seeded by both the direct CO2 effect and poleward expansion of the tropics. A spatially uniform SST increase leads to anomalous southeasterly winds that can cause cooling in the southern SEM region because of a southwestward shift in the SPSA. With direct CO2 forcing and SST pattern change, an SPSA intensification extends these wind patterns further north to cover the entire SEM. During extension, an anomalous anticyclone is generated by the negative SST anomaly and is vertically inclined southwards by tropospheric warming in the subtropics, due to distinct atmospheric dynamics associated with increasing dry stability. This drives evaporative heat loss over the previously cooled ocean and sustains the SEM SST-wind complex, which is enhanced by cloud feedback. Such an interactive loop is manifested as a single hemisphere wind-evaporation-SST feedback, rather than a cross-equatorial process.
进入21世纪的预估海表温度(SST)在副热带太平洋表现出强劲的东南最小值(SEM)模式。尽管观测结果与气候模式之间的一致性,但这一模式仍未得到很好的解决,在提出的机制中存在空白。在这里,我们发现了一种新的海气相互作用,负责SEM的形成,与南太平洋副热带反气旋(SPSA)的变化有关,并由直接二氧化碳效应和热带向极地扩张共同促成。空间均匀的海温增加导致异常的东南风,由于SPSA向西南移动而导致南SEM区域变冷。随着CO2的直接强迫和海温型的变化,SPSA的增强将这些风型进一步向北扩展,覆盖整个SEM。在扩展过程中,海温负异常产生了一个异常反气旋,在副热带对流层变暖的作用下垂直向南倾斜,这是由于与干稳定性增加相关的独特大气动力学。这推动了先前冷却的海洋的蒸发热损失,并维持了SEM海温-风复合体,云反馈增强了这一复合体。这种相互作用环路表现为单半球风-蒸发-海温反馈,而不是跨赤道过程。
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引用次数: 0
Examining anomalous summer carbonyl sulfide emissions in a boreal forest after thinning 研究寒带森林减薄后夏季异常羰基硫化物排放
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01272-w
Abin Thomas, Asta Laasonen, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Toprak Aslan, Wu Sun, Paulina Dukat, Yann Salmon, Roderick Dewar, Pasi Kolari, Kadmiel Maseyk, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella
Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is gaining interest as a proxy for gross primary productivity (GPP). Thinning of the Hyytiälä (Finland) forest in the winter of 2019–2020 altered the response of COS fluxes to environmental conditions in the summer of 2021. For the first time, extended periods of ecosystem-scale COS emissions were observed in a boreal forest. The warm and dry conditions in the summer of 2021 reduced the COS uptake by the canopy and elevated soil abiotic COS production. However, the reduction in canopy uptake and the increase in soil production do not fully explain the observed ecosystem-level emissions. The analysis suggests an unidentified, homogeneously distributed COS source in the eddy covariance footprint area, potentially from the photodegradation of forest floor litter and cutting residue from thinning. Such a source in a boreal forest stand warrants further source apportionment studies to effectively use COS as a proxy for GPP.
羰基硫化物(COS)作为总初级生产力(GPP)的替代物正受到越来越多的关注。2019-2020年冬季Hyytiälä(芬兰)森林的间伐改变了2021年夏季COS通量对环境条件的响应。首次在北方针叶林中观测到生态系统尺度上COS的长时间排放。2021年夏季温暖干燥的气候条件降低了冠层对COS的吸收,提高了土壤非生物COS产量。然而,冠层吸收的减少和土壤产量的增加并不能完全解释观测到的生态系统水平的排放。分析表明,涡旋相关足迹区存在一种未知的、均匀分布的COS源,可能来自森林凋落物的光降解和间伐后的砍伐残渣。在北方针叶林林分中这样的来源值得进一步的来源分配研究,以有效地利用COS作为GPP的代理。
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引用次数: 0
Sea spray driven CO2 efflux: modeling the effect of sea spray evaporation on carbonate chemistry and air-sea gas exchange 海水喷雾驱动的CO2射流:模拟海水喷雾蒸发对碳酸盐化学和海气交换的影响
IF 9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01304-5
Lucy Hendrickson, Leonel Romero, Penny Vlahos
The air-sea interface is a major climate control for our planet. At high winds this boundary layer becomes turbulent and challenging to parameterize. Sea spray is only now emerging as an important but unaccounted for parameter in air-sea models. Here we apply state-of-the-art air-sea surface sea spray generation models coupled to a carbonate system model to predict the spray-driven flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas between the atmosphere and ocean at various wind speeds and sea states. When these droplets are injected into air, they experience gas exchange affected by both temperature equilibration and evaporation. The latter process leads to a super-saline and acidic droplet that removes dissolved inorganic carbonate and bicarbonate, chemically converting them to additional CO2 and thereby evading more CO2 than is predicted by traditional models that do not consider this process. At 40% evaporation, the droplet evicts all its dissolved inorganic carbon, which is a 100-fold increase in potential CO2 evasion. Evaporating sea spray acts as a significant feedback to ocean CO2 uptake and could serve important roles in episodic storm events and over longer planetary timescales.
海气界面对我们的星球来说是一个主要的气候控制。在大风时,边界层变得湍流,难以参数化。在海气模型中,浪花只是现在才成为一个重要但未被考虑的参数。在这里,我们将最先进的空气-海洋表面海喷雾产生模型与碳酸盐系统模型耦合,以预测在不同风速和海况下大气和海洋之间由喷雾驱动的二氧化碳(CO2)气体通量。当这些液滴被注入空气时,它们经历了受温度平衡和蒸发影响的气体交换。后一过程产生了超盐水和酸性液滴,去除溶解的无机碳酸盐和碳酸氢盐,将它们化学转化为额外的二氧化碳,从而避免了比没有考虑这一过程的传统模型预测的更多的二氧化碳。当蒸发40%时,液滴排出了所有溶解的无机碳,这是潜在的二氧化碳逃逸量的100倍。蒸发的浪花对海洋二氧化碳的吸收起着重要的反馈作用,并可能在偶发性风暴事件和更长的行星时间尺度上发挥重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
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