Pub Date : 2024-07-04DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00704-3
Zhuoying Li, Wen Zhou
Tropical cyclones (TCs) have experienced poleward migration in recent years, but whether this exists in future projections with high-resolution climate models remains unclear. This study investigates the poleward migration of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) using CMIP6-HighResMIP models. We first assess the model performance in TC genesis frequency and latitude, which differ greatly from the observations, especially in winter and spring due to misinterpretation of extratropical storms. In this study, we put forward a revised constrained detection method based on the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric conditions to resolve this bias. Results indicate that the revised detection method has good performance in capturing the annual cycle of TC genesis frequency and latitude. Future projections constrained by this method show that the latitude of TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) both undergo a poleward shift, with the former being more significant. Spatial changes in the dynamic potential genesis index and large-scale environment could explain this shift. The regional changes of Hadley circulation and the role of global warming and internal variability are also discussed.
{"title":"Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in the CMIP6-HighResMIP models constrained by observations","authors":"Zhuoying Li, Wen Zhou","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00704-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00704-3","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical cyclones (TCs) have experienced poleward migration in recent years, but whether this exists in future projections with high-resolution climate models remains unclear. This study investigates the poleward migration of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) using CMIP6-HighResMIP models. We first assess the model performance in TC genesis frequency and latitude, which differ greatly from the observations, especially in winter and spring due to misinterpretation of extratropical storms. In this study, we put forward a revised constrained detection method based on the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric conditions to resolve this bias. Results indicate that the revised detection method has good performance in capturing the annual cycle of TC genesis frequency and latitude. Future projections constrained by this method show that the latitude of TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) both undergo a poleward shift, with the former being more significant. Spatial changes in the dynamic potential genesis index and large-scale environment could explain this shift. The regional changes of Hadley circulation and the role of global warming and internal variability are also discussed.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00704-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141537084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-04DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00711-4
Tamaki Suematsu, Zane K. Martin, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Charlotte A. DeMott, Samson Hagos, Yoo-Geun Ham, Daehyun Kim, Hyemi Kim, Tieh-Yong Koh, Eric D. Maloney
{"title":"Author Correction: Incorrect computation of Madden-Julian oscillation prediction skill","authors":"Tamaki Suematsu, Zane K. Martin, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Charlotte A. DeMott, Samson Hagos, Yoo-Geun Ham, Daehyun Kim, Hyemi Kim, Tieh-Yong Koh, Eric D. Maloney","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00711-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00711-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00711-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141537069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The single scattering albedo (SSA) of aerosol particles is one of the key variables that determine aerosol radiative forcing. Herein, an Algorithm for the retrieval of Single scattering albedo over Land (ASL) is proposed for application to full-disk data from the advanced Himawari imager (AHI) sensor flying on board the Himawari-8 satellite. In this algorithm, an atmospheric radiative transfer model known as the USM (the top of the atmosphere reflectance as the sum of Un-scattered, Single-scattered, and Multiple-scattered components) is used to calculate the SSA instead of predetermining the aerosol model; the USM is constrained by the surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function shape and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the retrieval process. Combining two consecutive observations and a 2 * 2 pixel window, the optimal estimation algorithm is adopted to obtain the optimal solution for the aerosol SSA. These SSA results are evaluated by comparing with aerosol robotic network (AERONET) data. Linear regression shows that SSAASL = 0.60*SSSAERONET + 0.38, with a correlation coefficient (0.7284), mean absolute error (0.0319), mean bias error (0.00324), root mean square error (0.0427), and ~80.11% of the ASL SSA data within an uncertainty of ±0.05 of the AERONET data. A comparison of the ASL SSA products with collocated Himawari-8 SSA products (Version 03, officially released by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), referred to herein as JMA SSA) shows that the accuracy of the ASL SSA is better than that of the JMA SSA products. For the SSA retrieval in large AODs (>0.4), the validation metrics vs. AERONET data are better.
{"title":"Retrieval of hourly aerosol single scattering albedo over land using geostationary satellite data","authors":"Xingxing Jiang, Yong Xue, Gerrit de Leeuw, Chunlin Jin, Sheng Zhang, Yuxin Sun, Shuhui Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00690-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00690-6","url":null,"abstract":"The single scattering albedo (SSA) of aerosol particles is one of the key variables that determine aerosol radiative forcing. Herein, an Algorithm for the retrieval of Single scattering albedo over Land (ASL) is proposed for application to full-disk data from the advanced Himawari imager (AHI) sensor flying on board the Himawari-8 satellite. In this algorithm, an atmospheric radiative transfer model known as the USM (the top of the atmosphere reflectance as the sum of Un-scattered, Single-scattered, and Multiple-scattered components) is used to calculate the SSA instead of predetermining the aerosol model; the USM is constrained by the surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function shape and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the retrieval process. Combining two consecutive observations and a 2 * 2 pixel window, the optimal estimation algorithm is adopted to obtain the optimal solution for the aerosol SSA. These SSA results are evaluated by comparing with aerosol robotic network (AERONET) data. Linear regression shows that SSAASL = 0.60*SSSAERONET + 0.38, with a correlation coefficient (0.7284), mean absolute error (0.0319), mean bias error (0.00324), root mean square error (0.0427), and ~80.11% of the ASL SSA data within an uncertainty of ±0.05 of the AERONET data. A comparison of the ASL SSA products with collocated Himawari-8 SSA products (Version 03, officially released by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), referred to herein as JMA SSA) shows that the accuracy of the ASL SSA is better than that of the JMA SSA products. For the SSA retrieval in large AODs (>0.4), the validation metrics vs. AERONET data are better.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00690-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141495933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-02DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00707-0
Andra J. Garner, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Mackenzie M. Weaver, Benjamin P. Horton
The impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) on Southeast Asia’s coastlines are acute due to high population densities in low-lying coastal environments. However, the trajectories of TCs are uncertain in a warming climate. Here, we assess >64,000 simulated TCs from the nineteenth century to the end of the twenty-first century for both moderate- and high-emissions scenarios. Results suggest changes to TC trajectories in Southeast Asia, including: (1) poleward shifts in both genesis and peak intensification rates; (2) TC formation and fastest intensification closer to many coastlines; (3) increased likelihoods of TCs moving most slowly over mainland Southeast Asia; and (4) TC tracks persisting longer over land. In the cities of Hai Phong (Vietnam), Yangon (Myanmar), and Bangkok (Thailand), these variations result in future increases in both peak TC intensity and TC duration compared to historical TCs.
{"title":"Changes to tropical cyclone trajectories in Southeast Asia under a warming climate","authors":"Andra J. Garner, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Mackenzie M. Weaver, Benjamin P. Horton","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00707-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00707-0","url":null,"abstract":"The impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) on Southeast Asia’s coastlines are acute due to high population densities in low-lying coastal environments. However, the trajectories of TCs are uncertain in a warming climate. Here, we assess >64,000 simulated TCs from the nineteenth century to the end of the twenty-first century for both moderate- and high-emissions scenarios. Results suggest changes to TC trajectories in Southeast Asia, including: (1) poleward shifts in both genesis and peak intensification rates; (2) TC formation and fastest intensification closer to many coastlines; (3) increased likelihoods of TCs moving most slowly over mainland Southeast Asia; and (4) TC tracks persisting longer over land. In the cities of Hai Phong (Vietnam), Yangon (Myanmar), and Bangkok (Thailand), these variations result in future increases in both peak TC intensity and TC duration compared to historical TCs.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00707-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141496008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-02DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00646-w
Fei Huo, Li Xu, Zhenhua Li, Yanping Li, James S. Famiglietti, Hrishi A. Chandanpurkar
The global terrestrial water storage (TWS), the most accessible component in the hydrological cycle, is a general indicator of freshwater availability on Earth. The global TWS trend caused by climate change is harder to detect than global mean temperature due to the highly uneven hydrological responses across the globe, the brevity of global freshwater observations, and large noises of internal climate variability. To overcome the climate noise and small sample size of observations, we leverage the vast amount of observed and simulated meteorological fields at daily scales to project global TWS through its fingerprints in weather patterns. The novel method identifies the relationship between annual global mean TWS and daily surface air temperature and humidity fields using multi-model hydrological simulations. We found that globally, approximately 50% of days for most years since 2016 have climate change signals emerged above the noise of internal variability. Climate change signals in global mean TWS have been consistently increasing over the last few decades, and in the future, are expected to emerge from the natural climate variability. Our research indicates the urgency to limit carbon emission to not only avoid risks associated with warming but also sustain water security in the future.
{"title":"Can climate change signals be detected from the terrestrial water storage at daily timescale?","authors":"Fei Huo, Li Xu, Zhenhua Li, Yanping Li, James S. Famiglietti, Hrishi A. Chandanpurkar","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00646-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00646-w","url":null,"abstract":"The global terrestrial water storage (TWS), the most accessible component in the hydrological cycle, is a general indicator of freshwater availability on Earth. The global TWS trend caused by climate change is harder to detect than global mean temperature due to the highly uneven hydrological responses across the globe, the brevity of global freshwater observations, and large noises of internal climate variability. To overcome the climate noise and small sample size of observations, we leverage the vast amount of observed and simulated meteorological fields at daily scales to project global TWS through its fingerprints in weather patterns. The novel method identifies the relationship between annual global mean TWS and daily surface air temperature and humidity fields using multi-model hydrological simulations. We found that globally, approximately 50% of days for most years since 2016 have climate change signals emerged above the noise of internal variability. Climate change signals in global mean TWS have been consistently increasing over the last few decades, and in the future, are expected to emerge from the natural climate variability. Our research indicates the urgency to limit carbon emission to not only avoid risks associated with warming but also sustain water security in the future.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00646-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141496060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A climatology of stratospheric gravity waves (SGWs) induced by tropical cyclones (TC-SGWs) is necessary for stratospheric aviation safety and accurate numerical weather prediction. Few previous works have characterized the climatology of TC-SGWs, and the relative importance of the source and background wind for TC-SGWs has not been clearly established. Here we present the distribution of TC-SGWs formed over the northwest Pacific Ocean based on 30 years of ERA5 reanalysis data. Using explainable artificial intelligence, we found the background wind in the lower stratosphere to be more important than TCs in controlling the distribution pattern of TC-SGWs. The background wind shear can influence the direction of TC-SGW propagation by refraction and filtering, which influences the distribution pattern of the TC-SGWs. The TC intensity only influences the TC-SGW intensity. Our results provide information on TC-SGW hotspots and suggest the importance of the background wind shear.
{"title":"A climatology of stratospheric gravity waves induced by tropical cyclones on the northwest Pacific Ocean","authors":"Xu Wang, Yuan Wang, Lifeng Zhang, Yun Zhang, Jiping Guan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00705-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00705-2","url":null,"abstract":"A climatology of stratospheric gravity waves (SGWs) induced by tropical cyclones (TC-SGWs) is necessary for stratospheric aviation safety and accurate numerical weather prediction. Few previous works have characterized the climatology of TC-SGWs, and the relative importance of the source and background wind for TC-SGWs has not been clearly established. Here we present the distribution of TC-SGWs formed over the northwest Pacific Ocean based on 30 years of ERA5 reanalysis data. Using explainable artificial intelligence, we found the background wind in the lower stratosphere to be more important than TCs in controlling the distribution pattern of TC-SGWs. The background wind shear can influence the direction of TC-SGW propagation by refraction and filtering, which influences the distribution pattern of the TC-SGWs. The TC intensity only influences the TC-SGW intensity. Our results provide information on TC-SGW hotspots and suggest the importance of the background wind shear.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00705-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141489644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00708-z
Shengjun Gao, Yunhao Chen, Deliang Chen, Bin He, Adu Gong, Peng Hou, Kangning Li, Ying Cui
Urban populations face heightened extreme heat risks attributed to urban heat islands and high population densities. Although previous studies have examined global urban population exposure to heatwaves, the influence of urbanization-induced warming is still not quantified. Here, leveraging satellite-derived near-surface air temperature data, we assess the impacts of urbanization-induced warming on heat exposure in 1028 cities worldwide. Additionally, we investigate its role in shaping disparities in heat exposure between global North and South cities. Our findings reveal that urbanization-amplified compound heatwaves exacerbate heat exposure risk in more than 90% of cities, and that this amplification is stronger in high urbanization areas. Moreover, our analysis highlights the potential for overestimating disparities between global North and South cities if urbanization-induced warming is overlooked. The inequality of higher heat exposure in the global South cities than in the global North cities will be narrowed in real scenarios due to more intense urbanization-induced warming in the global North cities. We emphasize the pivotal role of urbanization-induced heatwave intensification in heat exposure assessments and call for its inclusion in future population vulnerability evaluations to extreme heat.
{"title":"Urbanization-induced warming amplifies population exposure to compound heatwaves but narrows exposure inequality between global North and South cities","authors":"Shengjun Gao, Yunhao Chen, Deliang Chen, Bin He, Adu Gong, Peng Hou, Kangning Li, Ying Cui","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00708-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00708-z","url":null,"abstract":"Urban populations face heightened extreme heat risks attributed to urban heat islands and high population densities. Although previous studies have examined global urban population exposure to heatwaves, the influence of urbanization-induced warming is still not quantified. Here, leveraging satellite-derived near-surface air temperature data, we assess the impacts of urbanization-induced warming on heat exposure in 1028 cities worldwide. Additionally, we investigate its role in shaping disparities in heat exposure between global North and South cities. Our findings reveal that urbanization-amplified compound heatwaves exacerbate heat exposure risk in more than 90% of cities, and that this amplification is stronger in high urbanization areas. Moreover, our analysis highlights the potential for overestimating disparities between global North and South cities if urbanization-induced warming is overlooked. The inequality of higher heat exposure in the global South cities than in the global North cities will be narrowed in real scenarios due to more intense urbanization-induced warming in the global North cities. We emphasize the pivotal role of urbanization-induced heatwave intensification in heat exposure assessments and call for its inclusion in future population vulnerability evaluations to extreme heat.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00708-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141489603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-29DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00700-7
Babula Jena, John Turner, Tylei Reeves-Francois, C. C Bajish, Caroline Holmes, Thomas Caton Harrison, Tony Phillips, Zhaomin Wang
We investigate an unusual extensive ice-free feature (EIF) within the pack ice that developed in the central Weddell Sea in December 1980 on the edge of the multi-year sea ice off the east coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The EIF was first apparent on satellite imagery on 8 December 1980 and expanded until it reached its largest areal extent of ~5.4 × 105 km2 on 26 December. The combined influences of near-record strength ( ~ 15 ms−1) cold winds from the Antarctic continent (transporting sea ice northward and creating an area of thin ice), increased shortwave radiation and net heat flux into the ocean, passage of deep polar storms, and the upwelling of high saline warm water led to the opening of this unique EIF. It is still the largest ice-free feature within the pack ice resembling a polynya observed in the central Weddell Sea during the satellite era, contributing significantly to the 1981 Weddell Sea sea ice extent minimum of 0.793 × 106 km2, the lowest on record. The development mechanism of this EIF was different from the 1970’s Weddell open ocean polynya which occurred within the winter sea ice cover through enhanced ocean convection.
{"title":"Occurrence of an unusual extensive ice-free feature within the pack ice of the central Weddell Sea, Antarctica","authors":"Babula Jena, John Turner, Tylei Reeves-Francois, C. C Bajish, Caroline Holmes, Thomas Caton Harrison, Tony Phillips, Zhaomin Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00700-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00700-7","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate an unusual extensive ice-free feature (EIF) within the pack ice that developed in the central Weddell Sea in December 1980 on the edge of the multi-year sea ice off the east coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The EIF was first apparent on satellite imagery on 8 December 1980 and expanded until it reached its largest areal extent of ~5.4 × 105 km2 on 26 December. The combined influences of near-record strength ( ~ 15 ms−1) cold winds from the Antarctic continent (transporting sea ice northward and creating an area of thin ice), increased shortwave radiation and net heat flux into the ocean, passage of deep polar storms, and the upwelling of high saline warm water led to the opening of this unique EIF. It is still the largest ice-free feature within the pack ice resembling a polynya observed in the central Weddell Sea during the satellite era, contributing significantly to the 1981 Weddell Sea sea ice extent minimum of 0.793 × 106 km2, the lowest on record. The development mechanism of this EIF was different from the 1970’s Weddell open ocean polynya which occurred within the winter sea ice cover through enhanced ocean convection.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00700-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141489634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-29DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00706-1
Feng Chen, Shijie Wang, Qianjin Dong, Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen, David Meko, Hans W. Linderholm, Tao Wang, Weipeng Yue, Xiaoen Zhao, Martín Hadad, Álvaro González-Reyes, Fahu Chen
Over the past two decades, more frequent and intense climate events have seriously threatened the operation of water transfer projects in the Pacific Rim region. However, the role of climatic change in driving runoff variations in the water source areas of these projects is unclear. We used tree-ring data to reconstruct changes in the runoff of the Hanjiang River since 1580 CE representing an important water source area for China’s south-north water transfer project. Comparisons with hydroclimatic reconstructions for the southwestern United States and central Chile indicated that the Pacific Rim region has experienced multiple coinciding droughts related to ENSO activity. Climate simulations indicate an increased likelihood of drought occurrence in the Pacific Rim region in the coming decades. The combination of warming-induced drought stresses with dynamic El Niño (warming ENSO) patterns is a thread to urban agglomerations and agricultural regions that rely on water transfer projects along the Pacific Rim.
{"title":"Role of Pacific Ocean climate in regulating runoff in the source areas of water transfer projects on the Pacific Rim","authors":"Feng Chen, Shijie Wang, Qianjin Dong, Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen, David Meko, Hans W. Linderholm, Tao Wang, Weipeng Yue, Xiaoen Zhao, Martín Hadad, Álvaro González-Reyes, Fahu Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00706-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00706-1","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past two decades, more frequent and intense climate events have seriously threatened the operation of water transfer projects in the Pacific Rim region. However, the role of climatic change in driving runoff variations in the water source areas of these projects is unclear. We used tree-ring data to reconstruct changes in the runoff of the Hanjiang River since 1580 CE representing an important water source area for China’s south-north water transfer project. Comparisons with hydroclimatic reconstructions for the southwestern United States and central Chile indicated that the Pacific Rim region has experienced multiple coinciding droughts related to ENSO activity. Climate simulations indicate an increased likelihood of drought occurrence in the Pacific Rim region in the coming decades. The combination of warming-induced drought stresses with dynamic El Niño (warming ENSO) patterns is a thread to urban agglomerations and agricultural regions that rely on water transfer projects along the Pacific Rim.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00706-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141489599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-27DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00703-4
Wei Dong, XiaoJing Jia, XiuMing Li, Renguang Wu
Extreme heatwaves pose a significant threat to a wide range of environmental, ecological, and social systems. The rapid warming of the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which are the most prominent features in the Northern Hemisphere in the context of climate change, has significantly influenced mid-latitude extreme events in recent decades. This study utilizes observational data and numerical simulations to demonstrate that the variations in Arctic amplification (AA) and TP amplification (TA) play a crucial role in the interannual variability of summer heatwaves (HWs) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) (HWs_YRB) region. The HWs_YRB is associated with a zonally oriented barotropic high-pressure system anchored over the YRB region. The spatial distribution and intensity of the HWs_YRB are impacted by the synergistic effects of AA and TA, via a meridional atmospheric tripole pattern and double jets over East Asia. Furthermore, AA primarily impacts the geographical extent of the HWs_YRB, while TA plays a critical role in determining the intensity of the HWs_YRB. Our findings provide an innovative perspective on the linkage between the pronounced warming observed in the Arctic and TP and the occurrence of summer HWs_YRB, enhancing our comprehension of the climatic consequences of the rapid changes in these two geographical regions.
极端热浪对各种环境、生态和社会系统构成重大威胁。北极和青藏高原（TP）的快速变暖是气候变化背景下北半球最显著的特征，对近几十年来的中纬度极端事件产生了重大影响。本研究利用观测数据和数值模拟证明，北极放大效应（AA）和青藏高原放大效应（TA）的变化对长江流域夏季热浪（HWs）的年际变化起着至关重要的作用（HWs_YRB）。HWs_YRB 与锚定在长江流域上空的区向气压高压系统有关。HWs_YRB 的空间分布和强度受到 AA 和 TA 通过经向大气三极模式和东亚上空双喷流的协同效应的影响。此外，AA 主要影响 HWs_YRB 的地理范围，而 TA 在决定 HWs_YRB 强度方面起着关键作用。我们的研究结果提供了一个创新的视角，即北极和TP的明显变暖与夏季HWs_YRB发生之间的联系，增强了我们对这两个地理区域快速变化的气候后果的理解。
{"title":"Synergistic effects of Arctic amplification and Tibetan Plateau amplification on the Yangtze River Basin heatwaves","authors":"Wei Dong, XiaoJing Jia, XiuMing Li, Renguang Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00703-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00703-4","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme heatwaves pose a significant threat to a wide range of environmental, ecological, and social systems. The rapid warming of the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which are the most prominent features in the Northern Hemisphere in the context of climate change, has significantly influenced mid-latitude extreme events in recent decades. This study utilizes observational data and numerical simulations to demonstrate that the variations in Arctic amplification (AA) and TP amplification (TA) play a crucial role in the interannual variability of summer heatwaves (HWs) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) (HWs_YRB) region. The HWs_YRB is associated with a zonally oriented barotropic high-pressure system anchored over the YRB region. The spatial distribution and intensity of the HWs_YRB are impacted by the synergistic effects of AA and TA, via a meridional atmospheric tripole pattern and double jets over East Asia. Furthermore, AA primarily impacts the geographical extent of the HWs_YRB, while TA plays a critical role in determining the intensity of the HWs_YRB. Our findings provide an innovative perspective on the linkage between the pronounced warming observed in the Arctic and TP and the occurrence of summer HWs_YRB, enhancing our comprehension of the climatic consequences of the rapid changes in these two geographical regions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00703-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141461935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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