Pub Date : 2025-12-30DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01298-0
Hyerim Kim, Hyemi Kim, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz
Under multiple anthropogenic global warming scenarios considered by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), Arctic sea ice is projected to disappear seasonally as early as 2035. Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) is a climate intervention strategy that has been proposed to mitigate some of the impacts of global warming. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of SAI in preserving Arctic sea ice, focusing on its sensitivity to the injection latitude of the aerosols. Using the 2nd version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) coupled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6), we analyze experiments with aerosol injection latitudes ranging from 45°S to 45°N. The results reveal that as the injection latitude shifts closer to the North Pole, Arctic sea ice rapidly recovers in both its extent and volume. This recovery is driven by coordinated shifts in clear-sky and cloud-related radiation, along with changes in surface reflectivity, that collectively reshape the surface energy balance in favor of ice growth. Importantly, we also find that, under fixed SAI injection rates, Arctic sea ice recovery varies substantially with injection latitude and does not scale directly with global mean surface temperature.
{"title":"Sensitivity of Arctic sea ice recovery to stratospheric aerosol injection latitude","authors":"Hyerim Kim, Hyemi Kim, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01298-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01298-0","url":null,"abstract":"Under multiple anthropogenic global warming scenarios considered by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), Arctic sea ice is projected to disappear seasonally as early as 2035. Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) is a climate intervention strategy that has been proposed to mitigate some of the impacts of global warming. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of SAI in preserving Arctic sea ice, focusing on its sensitivity to the injection latitude of the aerosols. Using the 2nd version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) coupled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6), we analyze experiments with aerosol injection latitudes ranging from 45°S to 45°N. The results reveal that as the injection latitude shifts closer to the North Pole, Arctic sea ice rapidly recovers in both its extent and volume. This recovery is driven by coordinated shifts in clear-sky and cloud-related radiation, along with changes in surface reflectivity, that collectively reshape the surface energy balance in favor of ice growth. Importantly, we also find that, under fixed SAI injection rates, Arctic sea ice recovery varies substantially with injection latitude and does not scale directly with global mean surface temperature.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145895039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-27DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01300-9
Yufeng Zhou, Kaiyue Shan, Yanluan Lin
Tropical cyclones (TCs) have intensified more rapidly in recent decades, with both the frequency and magnitude of rapid intensification (RI) events increasing. While rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are widely recognized as the primary driver behind the intensification trend, the contribution of TC-induced cold wakes—localized ocean surface cooling generated by storms—remains poorly quantified. Using 42 years of global data (1982–2023), we identify a robust decline in cold wake size (~7% per decade), driven mainly by enhanced upper ocean stratification. This reduction weakens the oceanic negative feedback on TC intensification and explains about 13% of the observed global trend in intensification rates. The effect extends to RI events and is particularly pronounced in the western Pacific. These findings reveal a previously underappreciated oceanic process that accelerates TC intensification and facilitates more RI events under climate change.
{"title":"Shrinking cold wakes accelerate tropical cyclone intensification in recent decades","authors":"Yufeng Zhou, Kaiyue Shan, Yanluan Lin","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01300-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01300-9","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical cyclones (TCs) have intensified more rapidly in recent decades, with both the frequency and magnitude of rapid intensification (RI) events increasing. While rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are widely recognized as the primary driver behind the intensification trend, the contribution of TC-induced cold wakes—localized ocean surface cooling generated by storms—remains poorly quantified. Using 42 years of global data (1982–2023), we identify a robust decline in cold wake size (~7% per decade), driven mainly by enhanced upper ocean stratification. This reduction weakens the oceanic negative feedback on TC intensification and explains about 13% of the observed global trend in intensification rates. The effect extends to RI events and is particularly pronounced in the western Pacific. These findings reveal a previously underappreciated oceanic process that accelerates TC intensification and facilitates more RI events under climate change.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"45 8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145895042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-27DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01303-6
Lu Zhou, Rong-Hua Zhang, Lingjiang Tao
Data-driven deep learning (DL) models often underestimate the intensity of extreme weather and climate events due to the scarcity of extreme samples in training datasets and the smoothing effects of gradient-based optimization. While ensemble prediction methods based on initial condition (IC) perturbations in traditional numerical models have improved extreme event predictions, they often fail in DL frameworks. This is primarily due to limited error growth characteristics and the implicit regularization in DL models, which dampens the amplification of IC perturbations. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel IC perturbation scheme based on orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (O-CNOP), integrated into a DL-based ensemble prediction system. The O-CNOP-derived perturbations are obtained through an iterative selection and optimization process, beginning with candidate samples from model simulations under uniform energy constraints. Perturbations are then selected to maximize forecast error growth, guided by ensemble averaging and convergence criteria. We evaluate this method based on four major El Niño events (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16, and 2023/24). Results show significant improvements in DL model predictions when initialized in spring, with over a 30% reduction in prediction error for Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies. This AI-enabled O-CNOP framework offers a robust and generalizable approach to ensemble predicting, potentially improving the prediction skill of DL-based weather and climate models for extreme events.
{"title":"AI-Enabled conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation enhances ensemble prediction of extreme El Niño events","authors":"Lu Zhou, Rong-Hua Zhang, Lingjiang Tao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01303-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01303-6","url":null,"abstract":"Data-driven deep learning (DL) models often underestimate the intensity of extreme weather and climate events due to the scarcity of extreme samples in training datasets and the smoothing effects of gradient-based optimization. While ensemble prediction methods based on initial condition (IC) perturbations in traditional numerical models have improved extreme event predictions, they often fail in DL frameworks. This is primarily due to limited error growth characteristics and the implicit regularization in DL models, which dampens the amplification of IC perturbations. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel IC perturbation scheme based on orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (O-CNOP), integrated into a DL-based ensemble prediction system. The O-CNOP-derived perturbations are obtained through an iterative selection and optimization process, beginning with candidate samples from model simulations under uniform energy constraints. Perturbations are then selected to maximize forecast error growth, guided by ensemble averaging and convergence criteria. We evaluate this method based on four major El Niño events (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16, and 2023/24). Results show significant improvements in DL model predictions when initialized in spring, with over a 30% reduction in prediction error for Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies. This AI-enabled O-CNOP framework offers a robust and generalizable approach to ensemble predicting, potentially improving the prediction skill of DL-based weather and climate models for extreme events.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145895043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-26DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01296-2
Yue Chen, Yu Liang, Xianyao Chen, Haibo Bi
Arctic cyclones play a crucial role in regional climate and have important linkages to mid-latitude processes. However, their future changes and driving mechanisms remain uncertain. By applying Lagrangian tracking to CMIP6 models under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, this study projects future Arctic cyclone activity changes and quantitatively investigates the relative contributions of local cyclogenesis and externally migrating systems. By the late 21st century, Arctic cyclone activity is projected to decline, with distinct seasonal and regional differences. Winter reductions stem from weakened local cyclogenesis, especially in the subpolar North Atlantic, while increased external migration intensifies cyclone activity in the Bering Sea and northeast Siberia. Summer declines result largely from reduced poleward intrusion of mid-latitude cyclones, particularly along continental margins. Yet increased cyclones around Greenland are driven by enhanced local cyclogenesis. These changes in local cyclogenesis and external migration are closely tied to variations in baroclinic instability and large-scale atmospheric flow patterns, respectively.
{"title":"Arctic cyclone activity changes under a warming climate","authors":"Yue Chen, Yu Liang, Xianyao Chen, Haibo Bi","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01296-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01296-2","url":null,"abstract":"Arctic cyclones play a crucial role in regional climate and have important linkages to mid-latitude processes. However, their future changes and driving mechanisms remain uncertain. By applying Lagrangian tracking to CMIP6 models under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, this study projects future Arctic cyclone activity changes and quantitatively investigates the relative contributions of local cyclogenesis and externally migrating systems. By the late 21st century, Arctic cyclone activity is projected to decline, with distinct seasonal and regional differences. Winter reductions stem from weakened local cyclogenesis, especially in the subpolar North Atlantic, while increased external migration intensifies cyclone activity in the Bering Sea and northeast Siberia. Summer declines result largely from reduced poleward intrusion of mid-latitude cyclones, particularly along continental margins. Yet increased cyclones around Greenland are driven by enhanced local cyclogenesis. These changes in local cyclogenesis and external migration are closely tied to variations in baroclinic instability and large-scale atmospheric flow patterns, respectively.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"69 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145895045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-26DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01301-8
Chao Zhang, Anmin Duan
Variations in the winter India-Burma trough (IBT) are associated with local cyclonic anomalies over the Bay of Bengal and modulated by mid-latitude teleconnections. However, spring IBT variability remains poorly understand, despite trough-base precipitation being substantially greater than in winter. Here, we identify a reversal in the spring IBT-Tibetan Plateau snow cover (TPS) relationship around the year 2000. This shift corresponds to eastward displacement of the trough-base before 2000, followed by a retreat toward the Bay of Bengal. Snow-perturbation experiments and moist potential vorticity diagnostics show that during 1979–1999, high TPS enhances atmospheric disturbances ahead of the trough and weakens them near its base. This process hence triggers an eastward displacement of the IBT. During 2000–2020, high TPS exerts largely opposite effects. Furthermore, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates this IBT-TPS linkage reversal. In the coming decades, a projected shift to a positive PDO phase is expected to promote IBT eastward displacement, enhancing spring precipitation in East Asia while increasing drought risk over the Indochina Peninsula. Our results hence provide a basis for improving seasonal projections and assessing climate risks across monsoon Asia.
{"title":"Reversal of the Tibetan snow-India Burma trough relationship","authors":"Chao Zhang, Anmin Duan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01301-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01301-8","url":null,"abstract":"Variations in the winter India-Burma trough (IBT) are associated with local cyclonic anomalies over the Bay of Bengal and modulated by mid-latitude teleconnections. However, spring IBT variability remains poorly understand, despite trough-base precipitation being substantially greater than in winter. Here, we identify a reversal in the spring IBT-Tibetan Plateau snow cover (TPS) relationship around the year 2000. This shift corresponds to eastward displacement of the trough-base before 2000, followed by a retreat toward the Bay of Bengal. Snow-perturbation experiments and moist potential vorticity diagnostics show that during 1979–1999, high TPS enhances atmospheric disturbances ahead of the trough and weakens them near its base. This process hence triggers an eastward displacement of the IBT. During 2000–2020, high TPS exerts largely opposite effects. Furthermore, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates this IBT-TPS linkage reversal. In the coming decades, a projected shift to a positive PDO phase is expected to promote IBT eastward displacement, enhancing spring precipitation in East Asia while increasing drought risk over the Indochina Peninsula. Our results hence provide a basis for improving seasonal projections and assessing climate risks across monsoon Asia.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145895044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01295-3
Yufeng Zhou, Yanluan Lin
The bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) has strengthened in recent decades, yet the mechanisms underlying this distribution and its recent changes remain debated. Here, we introduce a rate-duration framework that decomposes LMI into two fundamental components: mean intensification rate and intensification duration. Using global observations, we show that intensification duration is closely tied to genesis locations, and has decreased by 1.4 h per decade (3.4%) during 1982–2023, primarily due to poleward and landward shifts in genesis. This shortening suppresses TC intensification, offsetting nearly half (48.7%) of the rate-induced increase in strong TCs. High-resolution climate models corroborate these findings, revealing that future warming further shortens intensification duration, partially counteracting the increase of LMI. Our results highlight the importance of timescale constraint on TC intensity, providing a quantitative attribution of the competing roles of rate versus duration in shaping LMI and its response to warming.
{"title":"Shortened intensification duration offsets the increase of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity","authors":"Yufeng Zhou, Yanluan Lin","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01295-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01295-3","url":null,"abstract":"The bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) has strengthened in recent decades, yet the mechanisms underlying this distribution and its recent changes remain debated. Here, we introduce a rate-duration framework that decomposes LMI into two fundamental components: mean intensification rate and intensification duration. Using global observations, we show that intensification duration is closely tied to genesis locations, and has decreased by 1.4 h per decade (3.4%) during 1982–2023, primarily due to poleward and landward shifts in genesis. This shortening suppresses TC intensification, offsetting nearly half (48.7%) of the rate-induced increase in strong TCs. High-resolution climate models corroborate these findings, revealing that future warming further shortens intensification duration, partially counteracting the increase of LMI. Our results highlight the importance of timescale constraint on TC intensity, providing a quantitative attribution of the competing roles of rate versus duration in shaping LMI and its response to warming.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145813992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01293-5
Mohd Munazir Chauhan, Sajid Ali, Ali M. Khan, Pankaj Kumar, Madhav K. Murari, Pujarini Samal, Birendra P. Singh, Vikas Adlakha, Leema Saikia, Binita Phartiyal, Anupam Sharma
The relative contributions of global cooling and tectonic forcing to the reorganization of the South Asian monsoon during the critical Late Miocene remain poorly constrained. By analyzing sedimentological and geochemical proxies from the Tanakpur-Sukhidang section in the Himalayan foreland basin, we reconstruct paleoclimatic conditions to infer South Asian monsoon variability during this period. The enrichment of LREEs, a flat HREEs pattern and a negative Eu anomaly, along with elemental ratios of La/Sc and Th/Co, suggest a persistent felsic source derived from the Himalaya since ~12 Ma. Clay mineral variations, particularly the shift in smectite content and smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio, together with geochemical weathering indicators (CIA, WIP and Rb/Sr), document a relative increase in chemical weathering around 8 Ma. These mineralogical and geochemical transformations are synchronous with widespread indicators of South Asian monsoon weakening linked with change in exhumation rate of the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau and Late Miocene global cooling. Where reduced physical erosion and enhanced sediment-water interaction under cooler and more seasonal conditions amplified chemical weathering feedbacks. Together, these processes reorganized regional hydrology and monsoon dynamics, underscoring the coupled influence of tectonics and global climate forcing in driving the Late Miocene weakening of the South Asian monsoon. However, the relative influence of climate versus tectonics still remains inherently very complex and higher resolution provenance data, thermochronology and climate model simulations will be crucial for fully understanding the mechanisms underlying the Late Miocene Change.
{"title":"Tracing South Asian monsoon variability through a late miocene record from the himalayan foreland basin","authors":"Mohd Munazir Chauhan, Sajid Ali, Ali M. Khan, Pankaj Kumar, Madhav K. Murari, Pujarini Samal, Birendra P. Singh, Vikas Adlakha, Leema Saikia, Binita Phartiyal, Anupam Sharma","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01293-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01293-5","url":null,"abstract":"The relative contributions of global cooling and tectonic forcing to the reorganization of the South Asian monsoon during the critical Late Miocene remain poorly constrained. By analyzing sedimentological and geochemical proxies from the Tanakpur-Sukhidang section in the Himalayan foreland basin, we reconstruct paleoclimatic conditions to infer South Asian monsoon variability during this period. The enrichment of LREEs, a flat HREEs pattern and a negative Eu anomaly, along with elemental ratios of La/Sc and Th/Co, suggest a persistent felsic source derived from the Himalaya since ~12 Ma. Clay mineral variations, particularly the shift in smectite content and smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio, together with geochemical weathering indicators (CIA, WIP and Rb/Sr), document a relative increase in chemical weathering around 8 Ma. These mineralogical and geochemical transformations are synchronous with widespread indicators of South Asian monsoon weakening linked with change in exhumation rate of the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau and Late Miocene global cooling. Where reduced physical erosion and enhanced sediment-water interaction under cooler and more seasonal conditions amplified chemical weathering feedbacks. Together, these processes reorganized regional hydrology and monsoon dynamics, underscoring the coupled influence of tectonics and global climate forcing in driving the Late Miocene weakening of the South Asian monsoon. However, the relative influence of climate versus tectonics still remains inherently very complex and higher resolution provenance data, thermochronology and climate model simulations will be crucial for fully understanding the mechanisms underlying the Late Miocene Change.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145808172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-20DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01292-6
Hsing-Hung Chou, Tiffany A. Shaw, Gan Zhang
Trends in atmospheric circulation have begun to emerge in recent decades. Summertime mean circulation trends aloft have been attributed to human influence. For low-level extreme winds, the extent of human influence and climate model fidelity remains unclear. Here, we compare satellite-era trends in extratropical low-level mean and extreme (>90th percentile) winds defined using daily distribution in reanalyses and climate model simulations. In summer, Southern Hemisphere midlatitude winds have strengthened, driven by greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone forcings. The summertime European wind stilling trend is dominated by aerosol and greenhouse gas forcings. In winter, models cannot capture the strengthening over the Southern Hemisphere and the weakening over Europe and the subtropical North Pacific. These discrepancies, particularly in the Pacific, are reduced but persist when observed sea surface temperatures are prescribed and affect the low-level baroclinicity. Our results highlight human influence on summertime low-level extreme wind trends and reveal regional wintertime discrepancies.
{"title":"Human influence on recent trends in extratropical low-level wind speed","authors":"Hsing-Hung Chou, Tiffany A. Shaw, Gan Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01292-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01292-6","url":null,"abstract":"Trends in atmospheric circulation have begun to emerge in recent decades. Summertime mean circulation trends aloft have been attributed to human influence. For low-level extreme winds, the extent of human influence and climate model fidelity remains unclear. Here, we compare satellite-era trends in extratropical low-level mean and extreme (>90th percentile) winds defined using daily distribution in reanalyses and climate model simulations. In summer, Southern Hemisphere midlatitude winds have strengthened, driven by greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone forcings. The summertime European wind stilling trend is dominated by aerosol and greenhouse gas forcings. In winter, models cannot capture the strengthening over the Southern Hemisphere and the weakening over Europe and the subtropical North Pacific. These discrepancies, particularly in the Pacific, are reduced but persist when observed sea surface temperatures are prescribed and affect the low-level baroclinicity. Our results highlight human influence on summertime low-level extreme wind trends and reveal regional wintertime discrepancies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145796457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dust aerosols constitute a major component of shortwave-absorbing aerosols, with absorption uncertainties predominantly associated with mineral composition variations. To address this, we analyzed 22 East Asian dust (EAD) samples and derived a revised imaginary part of the complex refractive index ((k)), with a range spanning from (2.26times {10}^{-4})–(8.37times {10}^{-4}) in 0.3–1 μm, which is significantly lower than the Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) and the values commonly used in research on East Asian. The improved optical parameters applied to CAS-ESM2 for spring dust simulations have been shown to reduce single scattering albedo (SSA) bias from 15% to 2% and absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) overestimation from +5.2% to −1.7%. The modified scheme reduces atmospheric absorption by 79.5% (−7.61 W/m2) and reverses the top of atmospheric shortwave radiation effect to −3.80 W/m2. This outcome revealed that dust absorption in East Asia is weak and the climate impact is significantly different from previous assessments.
粉尘气溶胶是短波吸收气溶胶的主要组成部分，其吸收不确定性主要与矿物成分变化有关。为了解决这个问题，我们分析了22个东亚粉尘（EAD）样品，并得到了一个修正的复折射率虚部（(k)），其范围为(2.26times {10}^{-4}) - (8.37times {10}^{-4})，范围为0.3-1 μm，明显低于气溶胶和云的光学性质（OPAC）和东亚研究中常用的值。改进后的光学参数应用于CAS-ESM2的春季尘埃模拟，表明单散射反照率（SSA）偏差从15减小% to 2% and absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) overestimation from +5.2% to −1.7%. The modified scheme reduces atmospheric absorption by 79.5% (−7.61 W/m2) and reverses the top of atmospheric shortwave radiation effect to −3.80 W/m2. This outcome revealed that dust absorption in East Asia is weak and the climate impact is significantly different from previous assessments.
{"title":"Weaker absorption of Asian dust than previously estimated based on observation-constrained simulation","authors":"Youjia Yuan, Hao Wang, Chenglai Wu, Tafeng Hu, Feng Wu, Daizhou Zhang, Junji Cao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01290-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01290-8","url":null,"abstract":"Dust aerosols constitute a major component of shortwave-absorbing aerosols, with absorption uncertainties predominantly associated with mineral composition variations. To address this, we analyzed 22 East Asian dust (EAD) samples and derived a revised imaginary part of the complex refractive index ((k)), with a range spanning from (2.26times {10}^{-4})–(8.37times {10}^{-4}) in 0.3–1 μm, which is significantly lower than the Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) and the values commonly used in research on East Asian. The improved optical parameters applied to CAS-ESM2 for spring dust simulations have been shown to reduce single scattering albedo (SSA) bias from 15% to 2% and absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) overestimation from +5.2% to −1.7%. The modified scheme reduces atmospheric absorption by 79.5% (−7.61 W/m2) and reverses the top of atmospheric shortwave radiation effect to −3.80 W/m2. This outcome revealed that dust absorption in East Asia is weak and the climate impact is significantly different from previous assessments.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145771617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：