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An exact scenario-independent deterministic equivalent form of stochastic programs embedding Multivariate Extreme Value discrete choice problems 嵌入多元极值离散选择问题的随机程序的精确场景独立的确定性等效形式
IF 7.2 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2026.103514
Michel Bierlaire , Edoardo Fadda , Lohic Fotio Tiotsop , Daniele Manerba
We address the class of two-stage Stochastic Programs embedding, in their second stage, a set of Discrete Choice Problems (tsSP-DCPs), one independent from the other, but all linked by the first-stage decisions This decisional structure can be found within many managerial and organizational contexts in relation to several applications such as location–allocation, routing, scheduling, and sequencing. Generally, solving a two-stage stochastic program requires the analytical derivation of the second-stage problem’s expected optimum, which in turn implies calculating a multidimensional integral. Therefore, a common practice is approximating the random variables involved through a finite set of scenarios and solving a huge scenario-dependent program, which affects the scalability of making optimal decisions under uncertainty. However, under some assumptions commonly adopted in the discrete choice context, we can prove that a closed-form analytical expression of the expected second-stage optimum of a tsSP-DCP can be derived, and an exact scenario-independent equivalent deterministic program can be obtained. Through a numerical showcase, we validate our approach in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. Our equivalent deterministic form, which only requires estimating a few parameters in practice, is far less computationally demanding than any scenario-based deterministic equivalent forms, thereby simplifying the decision-making process. Finally, we show that our methodology can be generalized to address a larger class of two-stage stochastic programs, i.e., those in which the second-stage expected optimum is decomposable into a finite number of expectations of Extreme Values and in which second-stage utilities may also depend on first-stage decisions.
我们讨论了一类两阶段随机规划,在它们的第二阶段,嵌入了一组离散选择问题(tssp - dcp),一个独立于另一个,但都由第一阶段决策联系在一起。这种决策结构可以在许多管理和组织环境中找到,涉及到几个应用,如位置分配、路由、调度和排序。一般来说,求解一个两阶段随机规划需要对第二阶段问题的期望最优进行解析推导,这又意味着计算一个多维积分。因此,一种常见的做法是通过有限的场景集来逼近所涉及的随机变量,并求解一个庞大的场景依赖程序,这影响了不确定性下最优决策的可扩展性。然而,在离散选择环境中通常采用的一些假设条件下,我们可以证明可以导出tsSP-DCP的期望第二阶段最优的封闭解析表达式,并可以得到一个与场景无关的精确等效确定性程序。通过一个数字展示,我们在效率和有效性方面验证了我们的方法。我们的等效确定性形式,在实践中只需要估计几个参数,远远低于任何基于场景的确定性等效形式,从而简化了决策过程。最后,我们证明了我们的方法可以推广到更大的一类两阶段随机规划,即那些第二阶段期望最优可分解为有限数量的极值期望并且第二阶段效用也可能依赖于第一阶段决策的随机规划。
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引用次数: 0
User ecology: The optimal ecology construction and product upgrade strategies 用户生态:最优生态构建与产品升级策略
IF 7.2 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2025.103511
Yusheng Wang , Yongjian Li , Fangchao Xu
Firms are now promoting interactions among users by constructing user ecology, thereby fostering a intra-user network effect to enhance the value proposition of their products. However, compatibility, a pivotal attribute of such ecology, may potentially transform this potent network effect into a double-edged sword, particularly from the upgrade perspective. This study develops a stylized model to explore the interplay between upgrade strategy and user ecology construction. Initially, we analyze the optimal upgrade strategies for firms, distinguishing between those with no/partial/comprehensive user ecology. Subsequently, we carry out the analysis of the optimal design for the user ecology. Moreover, we explore the effectiveness of strategically disposing of partial ecology. The primary findings illustrate the importance of upgrade costs in scenarios without user ecology, where the line-extension strategy dominants the replacement strategy. In the presence of user ecology, we elucidate the demand aggregation effect that may hinder users from buying a new-generation product. Consequently, the replacement strategy emerges as optimal when product differentiation is low. Intriguingly, the existence of user ecology may impede firms from introducing new-generation products. The construction of user ecology provides advantages for firms in emerging markets but may be detrimental in mature markets. Furthermore, our results highlight that comprehensive user ecology may compromise firm’s profit. Disposing of partial ecology strategically can enhance performance, especially when both network effect and product differentiation are low. Lastly, we further investigate the impact of repeat purchases, proportion of new users, and compatibility of the ecology on the main results.
企业现在通过构建用户生态来促进用户之间的互动,从而培育用户内部网络效应,以提高其产品的价值主张。然而,兼容性作为这种生态的关键属性,可能会将这种强大的网络效应转变为一把双刃剑,尤其是从升级的角度来看。本研究建立程式化模型,探讨升级策略与用户生态建构之间的互动关系。首先,我们分析了企业的最优升级策略,区分了没有/部分/全面用户生态的企业。随后,我们对用户生态进行了优化设计分析。此外,我们还探讨了局部生态的战略性处置的有效性。主要研究结果说明了在没有用户生态的情况下升级成本的重要性,在这种情况下,线路延伸策略优于替换策略。在用户生态存在的情况下,我们阐明了可能阻碍用户购买新一代产品的需求聚合效应。因此,当产品差异化较低时,替代策略是最优的。有趣的是,用户生态的存在可能会阻碍企业推出新一代产品。用户生态的构建对新兴市场的企业有利,但对成熟市场的企业不利。此外,我们的研究结果强调,全面的用户生态可能会损害企业的利润。战略性地处理部分生态可以提高绩效,特别是在网络效应和产品差异化都很低的情况下。最后,我们进一步研究了重复购买、新用户比例和生态兼容性对主要结果的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-objective electric vehicle charging scheduling under stochastic duration uncertainty 随机持续时间不确定性下的多目标电动汽车充电调度
IF 7.2 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2025.103506
Aimen Khiar , Mohamed el Amine Brahmia , Ammar Oulamara , Lhassane Idoumghar
The ongoing electrification of the transport sector, driven by the numerous advantages of electric vehicles (EVs), introduces new challenges related to charging logistics, particularly due to long charging durations and uncertain conditions, posing significant negative impacts on grid stability and user satisfaction. While existing literature on EV charging scheduling often assumes deterministic charging durations, real-world conditions introduce randomness due to uncontrollable factors such as battery state-of-charge (SoC), fluctuating grid demand, and ambient temperature. In this paper, we address the Electric Vehicle Charging Scheduling Problem (EVCSP) under uncertain charging durations. First, we introduce a novel, flexible multi-objective scheduling model operating on a continuous time horizon, considering stochastic charging durations and incorporating controlled preemptions during charging, where the non-preemptive mode is a particular case. Then, we prove that finding a feasible assignment of EVs to chargers is strongly NP-hard under this uncertainty, even assuming identical chargers. Our model accounts for realistic constraints, including heterogeneous charger power levels and vehicle-charger compatibility, aiming to minimize the conditional expected values of grid overload and total tardiness, while also minimizing the undelivered energy to users. Given the problem’s computational complexity, we adapt four evolutionary algorithms (EAs), namely, extensions of the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA), namely NSGA-II and NSGA-III, alongside other state-of-the-art multi-objective metaheuristics, including the Multi-Objective Cuckoo Search (MOCS) algorithm, and the Multi-Objective Grey Wolf Optimizer (MOGWO) by defining problem-specific operators to explore the search space and efficiently approximate the optimal Pareto front. Assuming lognormally distributed charging durations, we conducted a comparative experimental analysis on real-world data to evaluate the four methods and revealed that MOCS algorithm outperforms the other competitors.
在电动汽车众多优势的推动下,交通运输行业正在进行电气化,这给充电物流带来了新的挑战,特别是由于充电持续时间长和条件不确定,对电网稳定性和用户满意度产生了重大的负面影响。虽然现有的电动汽车充电计划文献通常假设充电持续时间是确定性的,但由于电池荷电状态(SoC)、电网需求波动和环境温度等不可控因素,现实情况中引入了随机性。本文研究了不确定充电时间下的电动汽车充电调度问题。首先,我们引入了一种新的、灵活的连续时间范围多目标调度模型,该模型考虑了随机收费持续时间,并在收费过程中引入了可控的抢占模式,其中非抢占模式是一种特殊情况。然后,我们证明了在这种不确定性下,即使假设相同的充电器,寻找可行的电动汽车充电器分配是强np困难的。我们的模型考虑了现实约束,包括异构充电器功率水平和车载充电器兼容性,旨在最小化电网过载和总延迟的条件期望值,同时最小化未交付给用户的能量。考虑到问题的计算复杂性,我们采用了四种进化算法(EAs),即非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA)的扩展,即NSGA- ii和NSGA- iii,以及其他最先进的多目标元启发式算法,包括多目标布谷鸟搜索(MOCS)算法和多目标灰狼优化器(MOGWO),通过定义特定于问题的算子来探索搜索空间并有效地逼近最优帕雷托前沿。假设充电时间为对数正态分布,我们对实际数据进行了对比实验分析,对四种方法进行了评价,结果表明MOCS算法优于其他竞争对手。
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引用次数: 0
Incorporating stochastic optional pickup demand in routing operations with divisible services for hub-and-spoke e-commerce returns management systems 在集线式电子商务退货管理系统中,将随机可选取件需求与可分割服务结合起来
IF 7.2 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2025.103510
Alessandro Gobbi , Daniele Manerba , Francesca Vocaturo
Nowadays, e-commerce is associated with many returns due to emotional consumption, information asymmetry, factory defects, or, more generally, customer dissatisfaction. However, little attention has been paid to reverse logistics in the e-commerce industry, although it has been proven crucial to improving the perceived quality of service and profit revenue. Depending on the nature of the goods, one successful option is to design combined forward-and-reverse logistics systems, where the collection of returns is ensured along with the traditional distribution of products, together with hub-and-spoke networks in which both distribution and collection demand from many spokes are aggregated into a few hubs. In this context, we study a variant of the vehicle routing problem with divisible deliveries and pickups, in which each hub may be associated with a mandatory delivery demand and a mandatory return pickup demand, and it may be visited more than once within the same or different routes. To address realistic scenarios, and given the large fluctuation of demand within the aggregating hubs, we also assume that an uncertain optional pickup quantity may arise and formulate the problem through two-stage Stochastic Programming, proposing and modeling ad-hoc recourse actions. Moreover, an integer L-shaped method enhanced with ad-hoc valid inequalities is developed for solving the resulting problem. Managerial insights on the underlying tactical and operational policies are inferred from extensive computational experiments on a case study and on realistic artificial instances.
如今,由于情感消费、信息不对称、工厂缺陷,或者更普遍的是客户不满,电子商务与许多退货有关。然而,电子商务行业很少关注逆向物流,尽管它已被证明对提高感知服务质量和利润收入至关重要。根据货物的性质,一个成功的选择是设计正向和反向物流系统的结合,在这种系统中,退货的收集与传统的产品分销一起得到保证,同时还有中心和辐条网络,在这种网络中,来自许多辐条的分销和收集需求都集中在几个中心。在这种情况下,我们研究了具有可分割交付和取货的车辆路线问题的一个变体,其中每个枢纽可能与强制交付需求和强制返回取货需求相关联,并且它可能在相同或不同的路线中被访问多次。为了解决现实情况,并考虑到聚集枢纽内需求的巨大波动,我们还假设可能出现不确定的可选拾取数量,并通过两阶段随机规划来制定问题,提出并建模临时追索权行动。此外,还提出了一种用自适应有效不等式增强的整数l型方法来求解所得到的问题。对潜在战术和操作政策的管理见解是从案例研究和现实人工实例的广泛计算实验中推断出来的。
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引用次数: 0
Behavior-Based Pricing strategy of quality-differentiated products with imperfect customer recognition capability 顾客识别能力不完善的质量差异化产品定价策略
IF 7.2 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2025.103488
Tao Jiang , Kaigeng Shen , Youwei Guo , Lei Guan
The development of data technology has enabled firms to identify and analyze consumers’ purchase history and classify them into new and old customers for price discrimination. However, this type of price discrimination tends to cause customer dissatisfaction and lead to resistance against firms’ data-driven pricing practices. Consequently, it challenges firms’ customer recognition capability. This paper develops a two-period pricing model in which two firms, differing in product quality, investigate the impact of behavior-based pricing (BBP) on firms with varying quality levels when they possess imperfect customer recognition capability. We find, first, that imperfect customer recognition capability causes different effects on price in each period for firms of different quality, depending on the level of product quality differentiation. Second, quality advantages do not always lead to more markets for high-quality firms; low-quality firms are also in a position to gain more markets. Third, due to firms’ customer recognition capability and quality differentiation, when both firms adopt BBP, they will both achieve higher profits and reach a ”win–win” situation. Conversely, if only one firm adopts BBP, it will result in reduced profitability for both firms, leading to a ”lose–lose” scenario. Finally, we have examined consumer surplus and social welfare, and the findings provide a theoretical foundation and policy recommendations for governments to develop regulatory measures against price discrimination in the digital economy era.
数据技术的发展使企业能够识别和分析消费者的购买历史,并将其分为新老客户进行价格歧视。然而,这种类型的价格歧视往往会引起客户的不满,并导致对公司数据驱动定价做法的抵制。因此,它对企业的客户识别能力提出了挑战。本文建立了一个两期定价模型,研究了两家产品质量不同的企业在顾客识别能力不完全的情况下,行为定价对不同质量水平的企业的影响。我们发现,首先,不完善的顾客识别能力对不同质量的企业在每个时期的价格产生不同的影响,这取决于产品质量差异化的程度。其次,质量优势并不总是为高质量企业带来更多的市场;低质量的公司也能获得更多的市场。第三,由于企业的顾客识别能力和质量差异化,当两家企业都采用BBP时,双方都将获得更高的利润,达到“双赢”的局面。相反,如果只有一家公司采用BBP,这将导致两家公司的盈利能力下降,导致“双输”的情况。最后,本文对消费者剩余与社会福利的关系进行了实证研究,为各国政府制定数字经济时代反价格歧视的监管措施提供了理论依据和政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-objective optimization with order acceptance for the cumulative job shop scheduling problem in agribusiness 农业综合企业累积作业车间调度问题的订单接受多目标优化
IF 7.2 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2025.103504
Florian Linß , Mike Hewitt , Janis S. Neufeld , Udo Buscher
Developing new crop species is crucial for addressing global food challenges and improving agricultural efficiency. In agribusiness, this process involves systematically growing and assessing numerous crop variants under controlled conditions to determine their yield potential and adaptability. Formally, this is a job shop scheduling problem because the crops can be understood as jobs that may have different processing sequences on the resources (e.g., greenhouses). However, since the resources can process several jobs simultaneously, a cumulative job shop problem arises. The primary objective is to maximize the number of accepted jobs from a job pool with given release and due dates. The secondary objective is to minimize delays in job processing, i.e., the jobs’ waiting times, as earlier completion of jobs allows for faster feedback and refinement of future crop variants, ultimately improving the overall testing and development process. In this paper, we formulate this problem as a mixed integer and constraint programming problem. We also show how it can be solved with a flexible hierarchical approach, even for very large problem instances. Comprehensive computational experiments first show that available machine capacity has a greater influence on the objectives than the length of the processing time windows, resulting from the difference between the due and release dates. Secondly, a deviation from the maximum number of accepted jobs disproportionately reduces delays.
开发新的作物品种对于应对全球粮食挑战和提高农业效率至关重要。在农业综合企业中,这一过程包括在受控条件下系统地种植和评估多种作物变种,以确定其产量潜力和适应性。从形式上讲,这是一个作业车间调度问题,因为作物可以理解为对资源(例如温室)具有不同处理顺序的作业。但是,由于资源可以同时处理多个作业,因此出现了累积作业车间问题。主要目标是从给定发布和截止日期的作业池中最大限度地增加可接受的作业数量。第二个目标是最小化作业处理中的延迟,即作业的等待时间,因为作业的早期完成允许更快的反馈和对未来作物变体的改进,最终改进整个测试和开发过程。本文将该问题表述为一个混合整数和约束规划问题。我们还展示了如何使用灵活的分层方法来解决它,即使对于非常大的问题实例也是如此。综合计算实验首先表明,由于到期日期和发布日期之间的差异,可用机器容量对目标的影响大于处理时间窗口的长度。其次,偏离可接受作业的最大数量不成比例地减少了延迟。
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引用次数: 0
Feature-based profitability evaluation for newsvendor-type products 基于特征的报贩型产品盈利能力评价
IF 7.2 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2025.103508
Yuying Zhang, Shiming Deng, Wanpeng Wang
We study how firms selling newsvendor-type products determine order quantities to maximize the probability of achieving a target profit, referred to as profitability. Unlike existing literature, we assume decision-makers have access to historical demand data and related feature data. To integrate feature information into the optimization model, we propose a weighted sample average approximation method that resolves the inherent inconsistency of traditional SAA approaches. This feature-based model is reformulated as a mixed integer programming for efficient solution. We further prove the consistency and asymptotic optimality of the ordering policy derived from our method. For high-dimensional feature settings with irrelevant features, we develop a decision-based feature selection method within the nonparametric optimization framework. Additionally, we introduce a nonparametric bootstrap method to estimate conservative profitability, mitigating overestimation risks caused by sampling errors. Numerical experiments using both synthetic and real data are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods. Notably, as the sample size increases, our feature selection method consistently identifies all relevant features, meaning the probability of correctly selecting the model approaches 1. Furthermore, in real-data experiments, our feature-based method improves profitability by more than 50% compared to the SAA method.
我们研究销售报摊类型产品的公司如何确定订单数量以最大化实现目标利润的概率,即盈利能力。与现有文献不同,我们假设决策者可以访问历史需求数据和相关特征数据。为了将特征信息整合到优化模型中,我们提出了一种加权样本平均逼近方法,解决了传统SAA方法固有的不一致性。为了有效求解,将基于特征的模型重新表述为混合整数规划。进一步证明了该排序策略的一致性和渐近最优性。对于具有不相关特征的高维特征设置,我们在非参数优化框架下开发了一种基于决策的特征选择方法。此外,我们引入了一种非参数自举方法来估计保守盈利能力,以减轻抽样误差引起的高估风险。利用合成数据和实际数据进行了数值实验,验证了所提方法的有效性。值得注意的是,随着样本量的增加,我们的特征选择方法一致地识别所有相关特征,这意味着正确选择模型的概率接近1。此外,在实际数据实验中,我们基于特征的方法比SAA方法提高了50%以上的盈利能力。
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引用次数: 0
The stochastic production routing problem with adaptive routing and service level constraints 具有自适应路由和服务水平约束的随机生产路由问题
IF 7.2 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2025.103496
Ali Kermani, Jean-François Cordeau, Raf Jans
Demand uncertainty poses a challenge to most companies in manufacturing and services as it can lead to significant profit losses if not addressed properly. To deal with this risk, companies may adopt specific service level targets to satisfy at least a certain proportion of their demand while considering operational constraints and minimizing the total cost. In this study we address the stochastic production routing problem (PRP) with adaptive routing and service level constraints. The PRP unifies the production, inventory and routing decisions into an integrated problem aimed at improving coordination across different parts of the system. We consider four different types of service levels, where each type uses a specific metric based on assumptions aligning with the needs of the company. These metrics encompass aspects such as the occurrence of stockouts or allowed ratios of backlogs or backorders to average demand. A two-stage stochastic formulation is proposed for each type of service level. Setup decisions are made in the first stage, and production, inventory, and routing decisions are adapted after demand realization. Considering routing decisions in the second stage increases flexibility while lowering overall costs. However, the resulting optimization problem is more challenging to solve than the case where routing decisions are made in the first stage. To address this issue, we introduce an iterative matheuristic algorithm designed to yield high-quality solutions within a reasonable computation time. The effectiveness of the proposed heuristic algorithm is demonstrated through extensive experiments, highlighting its potential to assist companies in managing demand uncertainty and enhancing operational efficiency.
需求不确定性对大多数制造业和服务业公司构成了挑战,因为如果不妥善处理,它可能导致重大的利润损失。为了应对这种风险,公司可以在考虑运营约束和最小化总成本的同时,采用特定的服务水平目标来满足至少一定比例的需求。本文研究了具有自适应路由和服务水平约束的随机生产路由问题。PRP将生产、库存和路线决策统一为一个综合问题,旨在改善系统不同部分之间的协调。我们考虑了四种不同类型的服务级别,其中每种类型使用基于与公司需求一致的假设的特定度量。这些指标包括诸如缺货的发生或允许的库存或订单与平均需求的比率等方面。针对不同类型的服务水平,提出了两阶段随机公式。在第一阶段做出设置决策,在需求实现之后调整生产、库存和路由决策。在第二阶段考虑路由决策增加了灵活性,同时降低了总体成本。然而,由此产生的优化问题比在第一阶段做出路由决策的情况更具挑战性。为了解决这个问题,我们引入了一种迭代数学算法,旨在在合理的计算时间内产生高质量的解决方案。提出的启发式算法的有效性通过广泛的实验证明,突出其潜力,以帮助企业管理需求的不确定性和提高运营效率。
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引用次数: 0
Ecosystem risk management: A MIP approach to spatial prioritization of multiple management actions 生态系统风险管理:多重管理行动空间优先化的MIP方法
IF 7.2 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2025.103507
Matías Moreno-Faguett , José Salgado-Rojas , Virgilio Hermoso , María José Martínez-Harms , Bárbara Larraín-Barrios , Eduardo Álvarez-Miranda
Healthy ecosystems are essential for conserving biodiversity and supporting human well-being, yet human activities impose significant pressures, risking ecological features such as species, habitats and ecosystem services. While Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) has been widely used to address these issues, traditional approaches often result in risk-averse solutions, focusing management efforts on low-impact sites and potentially leading to suboptimal conservation outcomes. To address this gap, we propose a mixed-integer programming (MIP) approach designed to explicitly reduce ecosystem risk by prioritizing cost-effective actions and sites to manage multiple stressors, while accounting for spatial needs such as connectivity and socio-political boundaries. Our framework integrates a state-of-the-art ecological risk assessment tool (InVEST-Habitat Risk Assessment) with an SCP-based mathematical programming tool (prioriactions R package) for guiding risk management. We applied this framework to Chilean Patagonia, using giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forests as a proxy for coastal ecosystems under pressure from stressors such as aquaculture, vessel activities, and ocean temperatures. The framework was assessed across five planning scenarios, each with different spatial needs, and was compared with traditional approaches. The results demonstrated that our approach consistently outperforms traditional ones, ensuring risk reduction in all scenarios. In key comparisons, the traditional approaches failed to exceed 47% of the risk reduction target. In addition to meeting higher risk reductions, our approach successfully overcame spatial needs in all scenarios. However, the inclusion of these constraints increased computational difficulty by 36 to 150 times and solution costs by up to 71%. These findings highlight the flexibility of the framework, but also emphasize the need for coordinated planning. This work aims to bridge the gap between risk assessment and risk management in conservation planning by explicitly incorporating risk as a primary objective instead of a secondary outcome. Our framework is applicable to any multi-stressor context, providing a flexible tool for designing cost-effective management strategies. By focusing on risk reduction and incorporating spatial needs, this approach enhances long-term ecosystem resilience.
健康的生态系统对于保护生物多样性和支持人类福祉至关重要,但人类活动造成了巨大压力,危及物种、栖息地和生态系统服务等生态特征。虽然系统保护规划(SCP)已被广泛用于解决这些问题,但传统方法往往导致规避风险的解决方案,将管理工作集中在低影响的地点,并可能导致次优的保护结果。为了解决这一差距,我们提出了一种混合整数规划(MIP)方法,旨在通过优先考虑具有成本效益的行动和地点来管理多种压力源,同时考虑到连通性和社会政治边界等空间需求,从而明确降低生态系统风险。我们的框架集成了最先进的生态风险评估工具(InVEST-Habitat风险评估)和基于scp的数学规划工具(优先级R包),用于指导风险管理。我们将这一框架应用于智利巴塔哥尼亚,使用巨型海带(Macrocystis pyrifera)森林作为沿海生态系统在水产养殖、船舶活动和海洋温度等压力源下的代理。该框架在五个规划方案中进行了评估,每个方案都有不同的空间需求,并与传统方法进行了比较。结果表明,我们的方法始终优于传统方法,确保在所有情况下降低风险。在关键的比较中,传统方法未能超过47%的风险降低目标。除了满足更高的风险降低,我们的方法成功地克服了所有场景的空间需求。然而,这些约束的加入使计算难度增加了36到150倍,求解成本增加了71%。这些发现突出了框架的灵活性,但也强调了协调规划的必要性。这项工作旨在通过明确地将风险作为主要目标而不是次要结果,弥合保护规划中风险评估和风险管理之间的差距。我们的框架适用于任何多压力源环境,为设计具有成本效益的管理策略提供了灵活的工具。通过注重降低风险和结合空间需求,这种方法增强了生态系统的长期恢复能力。
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引用次数: 0
Joint scheduling policy for volunteers and materials in multi-organizational disaster response 多组织灾害响应中志愿者和物资的联合调度策略
IF 7.2 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2025.103505
Bo Feng, Qingchun Meng, Guodong Yu
In disaster response, logistics management requires efficient matching among workforce, materials and tasks. Uncertain and non-stationary task arrivals, heterogeneity in workforce skill levels and uncertainty in task execution times, together with the need to coordinate materials with workforce deployment, jointly render the disaster response process highly stochastic; meanwhile, multi-organizational participation further introduces cross-organizational resource coordination challenges. Existing approaches struggle to address these jointly—stochastic demand, cross-organizational coordination, and inefficiencies from decoupled workforce–material scheduling—and often require frequent manual retuning that limits responsiveness and scale. We develop an adaptive, cross-organizational decision system that co-optimizes volunteer assignment, material allocation, and replenishment in real time. System evolution is governed by task arrivals, service completions, and inventory decay, while assignment, material allocation, and replenishment act directly on these drivers. We adopt a Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework to integrate multi-organizational collaboration, real-time resource management and task allocation, and implement an end-to-end controller via hierarchical deep reinforcement learning(HDRL) that jointly optimizes volunteer assignment, material allocation, and replenishment. Across varied demand regimes, scales, and perishability levels, the proposed joint controller consistently outperforms common queueing heuristics: task backlogs decrease by about 30–85% and personnel costs by 16–42%, while logistics and resource-usage costs remain broadly comparable, with occasional modest logistics increases that relieve congestion. Relative to short-horizon rolling dynamic programming, it achieves lower backlog and total cost with less manual re-tuning, millisecond-level inference latency, and smooth scaling.
在灾难应对中,物流管理需要劳动力、材料和任务之间的有效匹配。不确定和非平稳的任务到达,劳动力技能水平的异质性和任务执行时间的不确定性,以及协调物资与劳动力部署的需要,共同使灾害响应过程具有高度随机性;同时,多组织参与进一步带来了跨组织资源协调的挑战。现有的方法很难解决这些共同的问题——随机需求、跨组织的协调,以及从分离的劳动力-材料调度中产生的低效率——并且经常需要频繁的手动返回,这限制了响应能力和规模。我们开发了一个自适应的跨组织决策系统,共同优化志愿者分配、物资分配和实时补充。系统演化是由任务到达、服务完成和库存衰减控制的,而分配、材料分配和补充直接作用于这些驱动因素。我们采用马尔可夫决策过程(MDP)框架整合多组织协作、实时资源管理和任务分配,并通过分层深度强化学习(HDRL)实现端到端控制器,共同优化志愿者分配、物资分配和补充。在不同的需求机制、规模和易腐性水平下,所提出的联合控制器始终优于常见的排队启发式算法:任务积压减少约30-85%,人员成本减少16-42%,而物流和资源使用成本保持大致相当,偶尔适度的物流增加可以缓解拥堵。相对于短期滚动动态规划,它实现了更低的积压和总成本,更少的手动重新调优,毫秒级的推理延迟,以及平滑的扩展。
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Omega-international Journal of Management Science
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