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Multivariate natural gas price forecasting model with feature selection, machine learning and chernobyl disaster optimizer 基于特征选择、机器学习和切尔诺贝利灾难优化器的多元天然气价格预测模型
IF 6.1 1区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.petsci.2025.09.034
Pei Du , Xuan-Kai Zhang , Jun-Tao Du , Jian-Zhou Wang
The significance of accurately forecasting natural gas prices is far-reaching and significant, not only for the stable operation of the energy market, but also as a key element in promoting sustainable development and addressing environmental challenges. However, natural gas prices are affected by multiple source factors, presenting complex, unstable nonlinear characteristics hindering the improvement of the prediction accuracy of existing models. To address this issue, this study proposes an innovative multivariate combined forecasting model for natural gas prices. Initially, the study meticulously identifies and introduces 16 variables impacting natural gas prices across five crucial dimensions: the production, marketing, commodities, political and economic indicators of the United States and temperature. Subsequently, this study employs the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, grey relation analysis, and random forest for dimensionality reduction, effectively screening out the most influential key variables to serve as input features for the subsequent learning model. Building upon this foundation, a suite of machine learning models is constructed to ensure precise natural gas price prediction. To further elevate the predictive performance, an intelligent algorithm for parameter optimization is incorporated, addressing potential limitations of individual models. To thoroughly assess the prediction accuracy of the proposed model, this study conducts three experiments using monthly natural gas trading prices. These experiments incorporate 19 benchmark models for comparative analysis, utilizing five evaluation metrics to quantify forecasting effectiveness. Furthermore, this study conducts in-depth validation of the proposed modelʼs effectiveness through hypothesis testing, discussions on the improvement ratio of forecasting performance, and case studies on other energy prices. The empirical results demonstrate that the multivariate combined forecasting method developed in this study surpasses other comparative models in forecasting accuracy. It offers new perspectives and methodologies for natural gas price forecasting while also providing valuable insights for other energy price forecasting studies.
准确预测天然气价格不仅对能源市场的稳定运行意义深远,而且是促进可持续发展和应对环境挑战的关键因素。然而,天然气价格受多种来源因素的影响,呈现出复杂、不稳定的非线性特征,阻碍了现有模型预测精度的提高。为了解决这一问题,本研究提出了一种创新的天然气价格多元组合预测模型。最初,该研究细致地识别并引入了影响天然气价格的16个变量,涉及五个关键维度:生产、营销、商品、美国的政治和经济指标以及温度。随后,本研究采用最小绝对收缩和选择算子、灰色关联分析和随机森林降维,有效筛选出最具影响力的关键变量作为后续学习模型的输入特征。在此基础上,构建了一套机器学习模型,以确保精确的天然气价格预测。为了进一步提高预测性能,引入了一种智能的参数优化算法,解决了单个模型的潜在局限性。为了全面评估所提出模型的预测准确性,本研究使用月度天然气交易价格进行了三个实验。这些实验纳入了19个基准模型进行比较分析,利用5个评价指标来量化预测效果。此外,本文还通过假设检验、预测绩效改进率的讨论以及其他能源价格的案例研究,对所提模型的有效性进行了深入验证。实证结果表明,本文建立的多元组合预测方法在预测精度上优于其他比较模型。它为天然气价格预测提供了新的视角和方法,同时也为其他能源价格预测研究提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Quantitative evaluation of brittleness anisotropy and its influencing factors in terrestrial shale 陆相页岩脆性各向异性定量评价及其影响因素
IF 6.1 1区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.petsci.2025.07.026
Jian-Yong Xie , Yan-Ping Fang , Chun-Wei Wu , She-Bao Jiao , Jing-Xiao Wang , Ji-Xin Deng , Xing-Jian Wang
Brittleness is pivotal in predicting shale reservoir quality and designing hydraulic fracturing strategies. However, intricate diagenetic environment of shale, characterized by distinct bedding structures, challenges the isotropic-based brittleness assessment methods. This study introduces a new quantitative approach to assess shale brittleness anisotropy, integrating anisotropic elastic responses and tensile fracturing mechanisms. The proposed model effectively reduces uncertainty in the causal relationship between Young's modulus and brittle failure. Comprehensive experimental validation encompassed 18 samples from six groups of Chang 7 terrestrial shale in Ordos Basin. The optimal anisotropic tensile strength criterion (N-Z criterion, error < 5%) was identified, enhancing the theoretical accuracy of the proposed model. Comparative experimental results demonstrate that the model adeptly predicts brittleness strength and directional variation characteristics across variations in mineral type, content and microstructure, underscoring its effectiveness. Additionally, theoretical predictions on shale samples with different organic matter reveal that brittleness strength and its anisotropy across varying OM are not monotonously decreasing. The research highlights that brittleness characteristics are influenced by both mineral type/content and microstructural distribution. Notably, the prevalence of isotropic brittle minerals is the primary determinant of brittleness strength, positively correlated. Conversely, ductile mineral content (striped skeletal support-type OM and clay) negatively correlates with brittleness strength, acting as secondary controlling factors. The impact of pore-filled OM on brittleness appears negligible. Rock physical modeling based on equivalent media theory for shale with pore-filled and/or striped OM further elucidates the mechanisms driving these variations. These findings attach great importance in assessment of terrestrial shale geological and engineering “sweet-spots".
脆性是预测页岩储层质量和设计水力压裂策略的关键。然而,页岩复杂的成岩环境和不同的层理构造,给基于各向同性的脆性评价方法带来了挑战。该研究引入了一种新的定量方法来评估页岩脆性各向异性,将各向异性弹性响应与拉伸压裂机制相结合。该模型有效地降低了杨氏模量与脆性破坏因果关系的不确定性。综合实验验证选取了鄂尔多斯盆地长7陆相页岩6组18个样品。确定了最优各向异性抗拉强度准则(N-Z准则,误差<; 5%),提高了模型的理论精度。对比实验结果表明,该模型能够较好地预测出不同矿物类型、含量和微观结构的脆性强度和方向变化特征,表明了该模型的有效性。此外,对不同有机质页岩样品的理论预测表明,脆性强度及其各向异性在不同有机质范围内不是单调递减的。研究表明,岩石脆性特征受矿物类型/含量和微观结构分布的双重影响。值得注意的是,各向同性脆性矿物的存在是脆性强度的主要决定因素,呈正相关关系。相反,延性矿物含量(条形骨架支撑型OM和粘土)与脆性强度呈负相关,是次要控制因素。孔隙填充的OM对脆性的影响可以忽略不计。基于等效介质理论的页岩孔隙填充和/或条状有机质岩石物理模型进一步阐明了驱动这些变化的机制。这些发现对陆相页岩地质工程“甜点”评价具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental investigation into the fracture propagation behavior of horizontal well multi-stage and multi-cluster fracturing within the roof of crushed soft coal seams 破碎软煤层顶板水平井多段多簇压裂裂缝扩展特性实验研究
IF 6.1 1区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.petsci.2025.09.033
Hai-Feng Zhao , Jie-Lun Luo , Xue-Jiao Li , Wen-Jie Yao , Liang Ji , Huai-Bin Zhen
The effectiveness of horizontal well multi-stage and multi-cluster fracturing in the fractured soft coal seam roof for coalbed methane (CBM) extraction has been demonstrated. This study focuses on the geological characteristics of the No. 5 and No. 11 coal seams in the Hancheng Block, Ordos Basin, China. A multi-functional, variable-size rock sample mold capable of securing the wellbore was developed to simulate layered formations comprising strata of varying lithology and thicknesses. A novel segmented fracturing simulation method based on an expandable pipe plugging technique is proposed. Large-scale true triaxial experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of horizontal wellbore location, perforation strategy, roof lithology, and vertical stress difference on fracture propagation, hydraulic energy variation, and the stimulated reservoir volume in horizontal wells targeting the soft coal seam roof. The results indicate that bilateral downward perforation with a phase angle of 120° optimizes hydraulic energy conservation, reduces operational costs, enhances fracture formation, and prevents fracturing failure caused by coal powder generation and migration. This perforation mode is thus considered optimal for coal seam roof fracturing. When the roof consists of sandstone, each perforation cluster tends to initiate a single dominant fracture with a regular geometry. In contrast, hydraulic fractures formed in mudstone roofs display diverse morphology. Due to its high strength, the sandstone roof requires significantly higher pressure for crack initiation and propagation, whereas the mudstone roof, with its strong water sensitivity, exhibits lower fracturing pressures. To mitigate inter-cluster interference, cluster spacing in mudstone roofs should be greater than that in sandstone roofs. Horizontal wellbore placement critically influences fracturing effectiveness. For indirect fracturing in sandstone roofs, an optimal position is 25 mm away from the lithological interface. In contrast, the optimal location for indirect fracturing in mudstone roofs is directly at the lithological interface with the coal seam. Higher vertical stress coefficients lead to increased fracturing pressures and promote vertical, layer-penetrating fractures. A coefficient of 0.5 is identified as optimal for achieving effective indirect fracturing. This study provides valuable insights for the design and optimization of staged fracturing in horizontal wells targeting crushed soft coal seam roofs.
论证了裂缝性软煤层顶板水平井多段多簇压裂开采煤层气的有效性。研究了鄂尔多斯盆地韩城地块5号、11号煤层地质特征。开发了一种能够固定井筒的多功能可变尺寸岩石样品模具,用于模拟由不同岩性和厚度的地层组成的分层地层。提出了一种基于膨胀管封堵技术的分段压裂模拟方法。通过大规模真三轴试验,研究了水平井眼位置、射孔策略、顶板岩性、垂向应力差对软煤层顶板水平井裂缝扩展、水力能变化及增产储层体积的影响。结果表明,相位角为120°的双侧下射孔优化了水力节能,降低了作业成本,增强了裂缝的形成,防止了煤粉生成和运移导致的压裂失效。因此,这种射孔方式被认为是煤层顶板压裂的最佳方式。当顶板由砂岩组成时,每个射孔簇倾向于形成一条规则几何形状的单一优势裂缝。泥岩顶水力裂缝形态各异。砂岩顶板强度高,裂缝萌生和扩展所需的压力明显高于泥岩顶板,而泥岩顶板水敏性强,裂缝破裂压力较低。为了减轻簇间干扰,泥岩顶板的簇间距应大于砂岩顶板的簇间距。水平井筒位置对压裂效果影响很大。对于砂岩顶板的间接压裂,最佳位置是距离岩性界面25mm。泥岩顶板间接压裂的最佳位置是直接与煤层的岩性界面处。较高的垂向应力系数导致压裂压力增大,并促进垂向穿透层状裂缝的形成。0.5的系数被认为是实现有效间接压裂的最佳系数。该研究为针对破碎软煤层顶板的水平井分段压裂设计与优化提供了有价值的参考。
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引用次数: 0
TOC TOC
IF 6.1 1区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/S1995-8226(25)00443-1
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引用次数: 0
Effects of natural fractures in cap rock on CO2 geological storage: Sanduo Formation and Dainan Formation of the early Eocene epoch in the Gaoyou Sag of the Subei Basin 盖层天然裂缝对CO2地质封存的影响——苏北盆地高邮凹陷早始新世三多组和戴南组
IF 6.1 1区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.petsci.2025.08.002
Yun-Zhao Zhang , Quan-Qi Dai , Lian-Bo Zeng , Rui-Qi Li , Rong-Jun Zhang , Le Qu , Yang-Wen Zhu , Hai-Ying Liao , Hao Wu
During the CO2 injection and geological storage process, the integrity of the cap rock significantly influences the long-term safety of CO2 storage. Natural fractures within the cap rock serve as potential pathways for CO2 migration, thereby increasing the risk of CO2 leakage. In this study, we determined the types, developmental characteristics, permeability changes, and CO2-H2O-Rock reactions of natural fractures in the mudstone cap rocks of the Sanduo Formation (E3s) and Dainan Formation (E2d) in the Gaoyou Sag of the Subei Basin using core observations, thin-section analysis, rock mechanics experiments, and paleomagnetic directional analysis. We identified four tectonic fracture sets (NNW, NWW, EW, and NE); high-angle shear fractures, ranging from 60° to 90° (average 82°) and typically measuring 4–12 cm (average 7.5 cm), dominate the assemblage, while slip fractures, ranging from 32° to 50° (average 36°) and measuring 3–6 cm (average 3.9 cm), are also present. At the microscale, shear fractures average 160 μm, and bedding fractures average 82 μm. Notably, 85.78% of shear fractures are unfilled, with calcite filling observed in 14.22%, while other fracture types show no filling. Permeability tests on samples without fractures reveal that permeability declines rapidly below 9 MPa, especially in shallower samples, followed by a slower reduction between 9 and 13 MPa, and ultimately stabilizes at approximately 0.00003 mD. In contrast, samples with fractures exhibit permeability that is 3–4 orders of magnitude higher; their fracture permeability decays according to a power law with pressure yet remains above 10 mD even at 46 MPa. Fractures with larger dip angles and those aligned with the maximum principal stress demonstrate the highest permeability. While silicate-filled fractures exhibit negligible changes in permeability, carbonate-filled fractures experience a temporary enhancement due to dissolution; however, subsequent permeability remains controlled by factors such as effective stress and fracture orientation.
在CO2注入和地质封存过程中,盖层的完整性对CO2长期封存的安全性有重要影响。盖层内的天然裂缝是二氧化碳运移的潜在通道,从而增加了二氧化碳泄漏的风险。通过岩心观察、薄片分析、岩石力学实验和古地磁定向分析等手段,对苏北盆地高邮凹陷三多组和戴南组泥岩盖层天然裂缝类型、发育特征、渗透率变化及co2 - h2o -岩石反应进行了研究。我们确定了4个构造断裂组(NNW、NWW、EW和NE);高角剪切裂缝以60°~ 90°(平均82°)、长度4 ~ 12 cm(平均7.5 cm)为主,同时也存在32°~ 50°(平均36°)、长度3 ~ 6 cm(平均3.9 cm)的滑动裂缝。在微观尺度上,剪切裂缝平均为160 μm,层理裂缝平均为82 μm。值得注意的是,85.78%的剪切裂缝未充填,其中方解石充填占14.22%,其他类型的裂缝均未充填。无裂缝样品的渗透率测试表明,渗透率在9 MPa以下迅速下降,特别是在较浅的样品中,随后在9 ~ 13 MPa之间下降较慢,最终稳定在约0.00003 mD。相比之下,有裂缝样品的渗透率高3 ~ 4个数量级;它们的裂缝渗透率随压力呈幂律衰减,但即使在46 MPa下也保持在10 mD以上。裂缝倾角越大,主应力方向越大,渗透率越高。硅酸盐充填裂缝的渗透率变化可以忽略不计,而碳酸盐充填裂缝由于溶蚀作用会暂时提高渗透率;然而,后续渗透率仍受有效应力和裂缝取向等因素的控制。
{"title":"Effects of natural fractures in cap rock on CO2 geological storage: Sanduo Formation and Dainan Formation of the early Eocene epoch in the Gaoyou Sag of the Subei Basin","authors":"Yun-Zhao Zhang ,&nbsp;Quan-Qi Dai ,&nbsp;Lian-Bo Zeng ,&nbsp;Rui-Qi Li ,&nbsp;Rong-Jun Zhang ,&nbsp;Le Qu ,&nbsp;Yang-Wen Zhu ,&nbsp;Hai-Ying Liao ,&nbsp;Hao Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.petsci.2025.08.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.petsci.2025.08.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During the CO<sub>2</sub> injection and geological storage process, the integrity of the cap rock significantly influences the long-term safety of CO<sub>2</sub> storage. Natural fractures within the cap rock serve as potential pathways for CO<sub>2</sub> migration, thereby increasing the risk of CO<sub>2</sub> leakage. In this study, we determined the types, developmental characteristics, permeability changes, and CO<sub>2</sub>-H<sub>2</sub>O-Rock reactions of natural fractures in the mudstone cap rocks of the Sanduo Formation (E<sub>3</sub>s) and Dainan Formation (E<sub>2</sub>d) in the Gaoyou Sag of the Subei Basin using core observations, thin-section analysis, rock mechanics experiments, and paleomagnetic directional analysis. We identified four tectonic fracture sets (NNW, NWW, EW, and NE); high-angle shear fractures, ranging from 60° to 90° (average 82°) and typically measuring 4–12 cm (average 7.5 cm), dominate the assemblage, while slip fractures, ranging from 32° to 50° (average 36°) and measuring 3–6 cm (average 3.9 cm), are also present. At the microscale, shear fractures average 160 μm, and bedding fractures average 82 μm. Notably, 85.78% of shear fractures are unfilled, with calcite filling observed in 14.22%, while other fracture types show no filling. Permeability tests on samples without fractures reveal that permeability declines rapidly below 9 MPa, especially in shallower samples, followed by a slower reduction between 9 and 13 MPa, and ultimately stabilizes at approximately 0.00003 mD. In contrast, samples with fractures exhibit permeability that is 3–4 orders of magnitude higher; their fracture permeability decays according to a power law with pressure yet remains above 10 mD even at 46 MPa. Fractures with larger dip angles and those aligned with the maximum principal stress demonstrate the highest permeability. While silicate-filled fractures exhibit negligible changes in permeability, carbonate-filled fractures experience a temporary enhancement due to dissolution; however, subsequent permeability remains controlled by factors such as effective stress and fracture orientation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19938,"journal":{"name":"Petroleum Science","volume":"22 11","pages":"Pages 4341-4356"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145697804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimization and application of KCl polymer drilling fluid balancing wellbore stability and logging response accuracy KCl聚合物钻井液平衡井眼稳定性和测井响应精度的优化与应用
IF 6.1 1区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.petsci.2025.10.012
Xin Zhao , Ying-Bo Wang , Fu-Hua Cao , Cao-Yuan Niu , Zi-Qing Liu , Lei Wang
In Dagang Oilfield in China, the utilization of the KCl polymer water-based drilling fluid (WBDF) in mid-deep exploration/appraisal wells presents a challenge in simultaneously optimizing resistivity logging accuracy and wellbore stability. To address this, it is necessary to conduct geology-engineering integration studies. Based on the formation resistivity, an analytical model was developed to assess the impact of KCl concentration in the WBDF on array induction logging response accuracy. The maximum permissible KCl concentration for the target formations was determined, and technical strategies were proposed to maintain wellbore stability at a reduced KCl concentration. After that, considering the inhibitory, encapsulating, and plugging effects, a low-KCl-concentration WBDF was optimized and applied. Model calculations demonstrate that increasing KCl concentration in the WBDF decreases resistivity, thereby reducing logging accuracy. To maintain a logging accuracy of ≥80%, the upper limits for KCl concentration in the WBDF are 4.8%, 4.2%, and 3.6% for the 3rd Member of the Dongying Formation, the 1st and 2nd members of the Shahejie Formation, respectively. Cuttings recovery experiments revealed that a minimum KCl concentration of 3% is required to ensure basic shale inhibition. A combination of 3% KCl with 1% polyamine inhibitor yielded cuttings recovery and shale stability index comparable to those achieved with 7% KCl alone, and the shale inhibition performance was further enhanced with the addition of an encapsulator. The optimized WBDF has been successfully deployed in exploration/appraisal wells across multiple blocks within Dagang Oilfield, resulting in superior wellbore stability during operations. Furthermore, the electric logging interpretation coincidence rate improved from 68.1% to 89.9%, providing robust technical support for high-quality drilling and accurate reservoir evaluation in exploration/appraisal wells.
在中国大港油田,在中深层勘探/评价井中使用KCl聚合物水基钻井液(WBDF),在同时优化电阻率测井精度和井眼稳定性方面面临挑战。为解决这一问题,有必要开展地工一体化研究。基于地层电阻率,建立了WBDF中KCl浓度对阵列感应测井响应精度影响的分析模型。确定了目标地层的最大允许KCl浓度,并提出了在降低KCl浓度下保持井筒稳定性的技术策略。然后,综合考虑抑制、包封和堵塞效果,优化并应用了低kcl浓度的WBDF。模型计算表明,WBDF中KCl浓度的增加会降低电阻率,从而降低测井精度。为保证测井精度≥80%,东营组三段、沙河街组一段和沙河街组二段的KCl浓度上限分别为4.8%、4.2%和3.6%。岩屑回收实验表明,要确保基本的页岩抑制作用,最低的KCl浓度必须为3%。3%的KCl与1%的多胺抑制剂组合使用时,岩屑回收率和页岩稳定性指数与单独使用7% KCl时相当,并且在添加封封剂后,页岩抑制性能进一步增强。优化后的WBDF已成功应用于大港油田多个区块的勘探/评价井,在作业过程中取得了优异的井筒稳定性。电测井解释符合率由68.1%提高到89.9%,为勘探/评价井的高质量钻井和准确储层评价提供了有力的技术支持。
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引用次数: 0
Near-wellbore 3D velocity imaging inversion method based on array acoustic logging data 基于阵列声波测井资料的近井三维速度成像反演方法
IF 6.1 1区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.petsci.2025.06.023
Zi Wang , Wen-Zheng Yue , Yu-Ming Zhu , Nai-Xuan Ji , Shan-Shan Fan
The characterization of subsurface formations via the analysis of near-wellbore velocity profiles represents a crucial method in geophysical exploration. This technique enables the evaluation of key parameters, including rock brittleness, wellbore stability, fracturing effects, and invasion extent, thereby enhancing comprehension of formation structures and informing exploration strategies. However, traditional near-wellbore formation velocity imaging methods exhibit two principal limitations. First, these methods lack azimuthal sensitivity, yielding results averaged across all directions. Second, they are computationally intensive and impractical for well-site environments. To address these drawbacks, we developed a rapid 3D velocity imaging method for array acoustic logging instruments equipped with azimuthal receivers, capable of producing 3D imaging results efficiently. The workflow entails the following steps: (1) Band-pass filtering of logging data to mitigate scattered wave interference caused by formation heterogeneity near the wellbore; (2) combination of receivers with varying detection ranges in each direction to derive radial velocity sequences, followed by integration of ray-tracing theory to obtain 2D velocity distributions; and (3) synthesis of final 3D velocity imaging results via interpolation of these 2D datasets. In the velocity sequence extraction process, we significantly reduced the computational load by employing an adaptive time window, ensuring rapid and stable application in well-site settings. We utilized the finite difference method to construct well models with heterogeneous formations. The compressional and shear wave 3D velocity imaging results derived from synthetic data correlated with the model, demonstrating the azimuthal sensitivity of our proposed method. Furthermore, we applied this method to a well in West China, successfully identifying the azimuth of near-wellbore anisotropy.
通过近井速度剖面分析来表征地下地层是地球物理勘探的一种重要方法。该技术能够评估关键参数,包括岩石脆性、井筒稳定性、压裂效果和侵入程度,从而增强对地层结构的理解,并为勘探策略提供信息。然而,传统的近井地层速度成像方法存在两个主要局限性。首先,这些方法缺乏方位角敏感性,产生的结果在所有方向上平均。其次,它们计算量大,不适合井场环境。为了解决这些问题,我们开发了一种快速3D速度成像方法,用于配备方位角接收器的阵列声波测井仪器,能够有效地产生3D成像结果。该工作流程包括以下步骤:(1)对测井数据进行带通滤波,以减轻井筒附近地层非均质性造成的散射波干扰;(2)将各方向不同探测距离的接收机组合,推导径向速度序列,然后结合射线追踪理论,得到二维速度分布;(3)将这些二维数据集插值合成最终的三维速度成像结果。在速度序列提取过程中,通过采用自适应时间窗口,我们显著降低了计算量,确保了井场环境下的快速稳定应用。利用有限差分法建立非均质地层井模型。合成数据的纵波和横波三维速度成像结果与模型相吻合,证明了我们提出的方法的方位角灵敏度。将该方法应用于西部某井,成功识别了近井各向异性方位。
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引用次数: 0
Petroleum recovery from salt cavern through natural gas displacement: Insights from a gas–oil two-phase flow model with gas dissolution and exsolution 通过天然气驱替开采盐穴石油:含气溶出的油气两相流模型的启示
IF 6.1 1区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.petsci.2025.06.005
You-Qiang Liao , Tong-Tao Wang , Tao He , Dong-Zhou Xie , Kai Xie , Chun-He Yang
The challenge of wide brine source and its additional problems come from the economy (energy consumption and other costs), security (re-dissolution of surrounding salt rocks), and environment (groundwater pollution by brine) of salt cavern oil storage are worth examining to improve the efficiency of oil storage. Against this background, this work presented an operating mode of salt cavern oil and gas co-storage and using natural gas displacement for petroleum recovery. A gas–oil two-phase flow model with gas dissolution and exsolution was proposed to evaluate the application prospects of the new method precisely. Numerical studies indicated that the gas void fraction at the wellhead under quasi-steady state conditions is approximately 0.153, which belongs to bubbly flow, and the pressure at the wellhead of the central tube increased from 5.54 to 6.12 MPa during the entire transient flow stage, with an increase of 10.47%. Compared to the traditional method of using brine as the working fluid, the pump pressure rises from 2.92 to 14.01 MPa. However, if the new mode can be linked with the salt cavern gas storage and when the initial wellhead gas pressure exceeds 13 MPa, the energy consumption of the new method will be lower than that of the traditional brine-based operational mode. A new empirical formula is proposed to determine the two-phase flow pattern under different operating parameters. A special focus was given to energy consumption for oil recovery, which grows roughly in accordance with the operating pressure and oil recovery rate. However, the energy cost per volume of crude oil remains almost unchanged. This work provided a new solution for the serious brine problem and is expected to achieve petroleum recovery through natural gas displacement.
盐穴储油的经济性(能源消耗和其他成本)、安全性(周围盐岩的再溶解)和环境性(盐水对地下水的污染)等方面的挑战和附加问题值得研究,以提高储油效率。在此背景下,提出了盐穴油气共储、天然气驱替采油的作业模式。为了准确评价新方法的应用前景,建立了含气体溶出的气-油两相流动模型。数值研究表明,准稳态条件下井口含气率约为0.153,属于气泡流动,整个瞬态流动阶段中心管井口压力从5.54 MPa增加到6.12 MPa,增幅为10.47%。与传统卤水作为工作流体的方法相比,泵压力从2.92 MPa提高到14.01 MPa。但若能与盐穴储气库对接,且初始井口气体压力超过13 MPa时,新模式的能耗将低于传统的盐水作业模式。提出了一种新的经验公式来确定不同操作参数下的两相流型。特别关注的是采油能耗,其增长大致与作业压力和采油速度成正比。然而,每体积原油的能源成本几乎保持不变。这项工作为解决严重的卤水问题提供了新的解决方案,有望实现天然气驱替采油。
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引用次数: 0
Can clay-rich reservoirs in predominantly-freshwater lacustrine shale systems serve as primary exploration targets in low-medium maturity? A case study of the Triassic Yanchang Formation of the Ordos Basin 淡水为主的湖相页岩系统中富含粘土的储层是否可以作为中低成熟度的主要勘探目标?以鄂尔多斯盆地三叠系延长组为例
IF 6.1 1区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.petsci.2025.06.020
Enze Wang , Maowen Li , Xiaoxiao Ma , Menhui Qian , Tingting Cao , Zhiming Li , Sen Li , Zhijun Jin
Whether clay-rich shale reservoirs with low-medium maturity can serve as primary exploration targets remains a focal point of debate in the academic community. Clarifying the exploration potential of clay-rich shale reservoirs is crucial for the future exploration and development of lacustrine shale. The Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin has been one of most productive lacustrine shale oil systems in China, with substantial oil production capacity already established. While the primary productive layers are currently fine-grained siltstone interbeds, however, it remains a highly debated issue whether the volumetrically more significant clay-rich reservoirs can become viable exploration targets in the near future. To address this issue, we examined the exploration potential of different lithofacies assemblages in Member 7 (Mbr 7) of the Triassic Yanchang Formation, using a borehole in the Tongchuan area of the southern Ordos Basin as an example. We identified favorable exploration targets and assessed whether clay-rich reservoirs formed predominantly-freshwater conditions can become viable exploration targets. The results indicate the presence of six lithofacies in clay-rich reservoirs of Mbr 7 of the Yanchang Formation, with two main lithofacies assemblages: laminated organic-rich shale and massive mudstone. From the perspective of sandstone distribution, the sandstone interlayers within laminated organic-rich shale are primarily formed by gravity (hyperpycnal) flows, while sandstones deposited in delta front environments are typically associated with massive mudstone. Laminated organic-rich shale deposition occurred in an anoxic, deep-water environment characterized by high primary productivity, whereas massive mudstone formed in environments with high sedimentation rates and substantial terrigenous debris influx. Currently, the exploration potential of sandstone interlayers exceeds that of clay-rich reservoirs, with the greatest potential observed in the sandstone interlayers associated with laminated organic-rich shale formed by gravity (hyperpycnal) flows. Comparative analysis reveals that clay-rich reservoirs with low to medium maturity present great challenges for exploitation, making interlayer-type reservoirs the main focus of exploration at this stage. Nevertheless, clay-rich reservoirs in closed systems with high thermal maturity and organic matter content also hold considerable potential.
中低成熟度富泥页岩储层能否作为主要勘探目标,一直是学术界争论的焦点。明确富泥页岩储层勘探潜力对今后湖相页岩勘探开发具有重要意义。鄂尔多斯盆地三叠系延长组是中国最具产能的湖相页岩油系统之一,已具备相当规模的石油生产能力。虽然目前的主要生产层是细粒粉砂岩互层,但在不久的将来,体积更大的富粘土储层能否成为可行的勘探目标,仍然是一个备受争议的问题。为了解决这一问题,以鄂尔多斯盆地南部铜川地区的一个井为例,研究了三叠系延长组7段不同岩相组合的勘探潜力。确定了有利的勘探目标,并评价了以淡水为主的富粘土储层能否成为可行的勘探目标。结果表明,延长组长7段富泥储层发育6种岩相,主要岩相组合为层状富有机质页岩和块状泥岩。从砂岩的分布来看,层状富有机质页岩内的砂岩夹层主要由重力(超旋流)流形成,而三角洲前缘环境下的砂岩则主要与块状泥岩相结合。层状富有机质页岩沉积形成于初级生产力高的缺氧深水环境,块状泥岩形成于高沉积速率和大量陆源碎屑流入的环境。目前,砂岩夹层的勘探潜力超过了富粘土储层,其中与重力(超旋流)流形成的层状富有机质页岩伴生的砂岩夹层勘探潜力最大。对比分析表明,中、低成熟度富粘土储层开发难度较大,层间型储层是本阶段勘探的重点。然而,具有较高热成熟度和有机质含量的封闭体系富粘土储层也具有相当大的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Real-time NMR investigation of water infiltration mechanisms and pore structure evolution in fractured sandstone near-wellbore regions 裂缝性砂岩近井区水渗透机制及孔隙结构演化的实时核磁共振研究
IF 6.1 1区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.petsci.2025.06.018
Sheng-Feng Wu, Yong-Fa Zhang, Yu Zhao, Chao-Lin Wang, Jing Bi, An-Fa Long, Yan Li
During the exploitation of sandstone gas reservoirs, natural fractures near the wellbore affect water infiltration and pore evolution; however, the impact mechanisms of these fractures remain unclear. This study utilized real-time nuclear magnetic resonance (RT-NMR) technology to investigate the influence of near-wellbore fracture angle (α) at 0°, 15°, 30°, and 45° on water infiltration, migration patterns, and pore evolution mechanisms during water injection. Throughout the experiments, T2 curves and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were monitored in real time during the water injection process. The pore evolution and water infiltration were translated by the evolution of T2 curves and MRI. The results show that increasing injection pressure (Pinj) transforms adsorption pores into seepage pores, leading to enhanced pore damage. Pore damage predominantly occurs during the rapid pressurization stage and is concentrated around the near-wellbore fracture. The maximum infiltration area and rate were observed at α = 0°, while the minimum values occurred at α = 45°, which can be attributed to the significant influence of α on water infiltration and migration pathways. The increasing inclination of the infiltration front with α is attributed to the fact that the rate of water infiltration along the fracture wall is always higher than that at the fracture tip. In field fracturing, it is recommended to adjust the perforation direction to align with the natural fracture orientation and optimize pressurization strategies by reducing the slow pressurization duration while extending the rapid pressurization stage. These findings can provide important guidance for setting fracturing sections and optimizing injection parameters in sandstone gas reservoir exploitation.
在砂岩气藏开发过程中,井筒附近的天然裂缝影响着水的入渗和孔隙演化;然而,这些骨折的撞击机制仍不清楚。利用实时核磁共振(RT-NMR)技术研究了0°、15°、30°和45°近井裂缝角(α)对注水过程中水的渗透、运移模式和孔隙演化机制的影响。在整个实验过程中,实时监测注水过程中的T2曲线和磁共振成像(MRI)。通过T2曲线的演化和MRI对孔隙演化和水渗透进行了解析。结果表明:随着注入压力(Pinj)的增加,吸附孔转变为渗流孔,孔隙损伤加剧;孔隙破坏主要发生在快速加压阶段,并集中在近井裂缝周围。入渗面积和入渗速率在α = 0°时最大,而在α = 45°时最小,这可以归因于α对水分入渗和运移途径的显著影响。随着α的增加,渗透锋的倾斜度增大,这是由于沿裂缝壁面的水渗透速率始终高于裂缝尖端的水渗透速率。在现场压裂中,建议调整射孔方向,使其与天然裂缝方向一致,并通过缩短慢速增压时间,延长快速增压阶段来优化增压策略。研究结果对砂岩气藏开发中压裂段的设置和注入参数的优化具有重要的指导意义。
{"title":"Real-time NMR investigation of water infiltration mechanisms and pore structure evolution in fractured sandstone near-wellbore regions","authors":"Sheng-Feng Wu,&nbsp;Yong-Fa Zhang,&nbsp;Yu Zhao,&nbsp;Chao-Lin Wang,&nbsp;Jing Bi,&nbsp;An-Fa Long,&nbsp;Yan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.petsci.2025.06.018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.petsci.2025.06.018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During the exploitation of sandstone gas reservoirs, natural fractures near the wellbore affect water infiltration and pore evolution; however, the impact mechanisms of these fractures remain unclear. This study utilized real-time nuclear magnetic resonance (RT-NMR) technology to investigate the influence of near-wellbore fracture angle (<em>α</em>) at 0°, 15°, 30°, and 45° on water infiltration, migration patterns, and pore evolution mechanisms during water injection. Throughout the experiments, <em>T</em><sub>2</sub> curves and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were monitored in real time during the water injection process. The pore evolution and water infiltration were translated by the evolution of <em>T</em><sub>2</sub> curves and MRI. The results show that increasing injection pressure (<em>P</em><sub>inj</sub>) transforms adsorption pores into seepage pores, leading to enhanced pore damage. Pore damage predominantly occurs during the rapid pressurization stage and is concentrated around the near-wellbore fracture. The maximum infiltration area and rate were observed at <em>α</em> = 0°, while the minimum values occurred at <em>α</em> = 45°, which can be attributed to the significant influence of <em>α</em> on water infiltration and migration pathways. The increasing inclination of the infiltration front with <em>α</em> is attributed to the fact that the rate of water infiltration along the fracture wall is always higher than that at the fracture tip. In field fracturing, it is recommended to adjust the perforation direction to align with the natural fracture orientation and optimize pressurization strategies by reducing the slow pressurization duration while extending the rapid pressurization stage. These findings can provide important guidance for setting fracturing sections and optimizing injection parameters in sandstone gas reservoir exploitation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19938,"journal":{"name":"Petroleum Science","volume":"22 10","pages":"Pages 4195-4210"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145384366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Petroleum Science
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