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Climate policy stringency and trade in energy transition minerals: An analysis of response patterns 气候政策的严格性与能源转型矿产品的贸易:应对模式分析
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105236

Climate policies directly affect cleaner energy technology markets, affecting price signals for greener electricity production. In turn, the manufacturing of energy technologies relies heavily on mineral inputs, posing challenges in securing mineral ores and concentrates either from local mines or overseas. This paper contributes to the mineral-energy literature by examining the impact of climate change policies on the net import demand for five essential minerals used in cleaner energy technologies: copper, aluminium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese. We examined country-level panel data from 33 countries from 1992 to 2015 to understand patterns in net imports relative to renewable generation. This metric allows the examination of technological improvements that contribute to more efficient use of imported mineral inputs in renewable energy systems. Results suggest that while both net import volumes and renewable generation have increased over time, net imports per renewable generation have continuously declined on average, suggesting that nations may have efficiently utilized imported resources to generate more than proportionate increases in cleaner energy. Moreover, results from a cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag model show that the stringency of environmental policies significantly affects net mineral imports per renewable generation, with marked variations across minerals and countries. Notably, with stricter policies, import reliance on cobalt and aluminium per renewable energy increases in the short run and eventually declines in the long run. Import reliance for copper declines per unit of renewable energy in the short run but increases in the long run. These findings emphasize the need for tailored policies to navigate mineral trade dynamics effectively. The research contributes valuable insights to the ongoing discussions surrounding sustainable energy transitions and global mineral trade patterns.

气候政策直接影响清洁能源技术市场,影响绿色电力生产的价格信号。反过来,能源技术的生产在很大程度上依赖于矿产投入,这给从本地矿山或海外获取矿石和精矿带来了挑战。本文通过研究气候变化政策对用于清洁能源技术的五种基本矿产(铜、铝、镍、钴和锰)净进口需求的影响,为矿产能源文献做出了贡献。我们研究了 33 个国家从 1992 年到 2015 年的国家级面板数据,以了解相对于可再生能源发电的净进口模式。通过这一指标,我们可以考察技术改进对可再生能源系统更有效地利用进口矿产投入的贡献。结果表明,虽然净进口量和可再生能源发电量都随着时间的推移而增加,但平均每可再生能源发电量的净进口量却持续下降,这表明各国可能有效地利用了进口资源,使清洁能源的增长超过了比例增长。此外,横截面自回归分布式滞后模型的结果表明,环境政策的严格程度对每可再生能源发电量的矿产净进口量有显著影响,不同矿产和国家之间存在明显差异。值得注意的是,随着政策更加严格,钴和铝每单位可再生能源的进口依赖度在短期内增加,并最终在长期内下降。铜对每单位可再生能源的进口依赖在短期内会下降,但在长期内会增加。这些研究结果表明,有必要制定有针对性的政策,以有效把握矿产贸易动态。这项研究为目前围绕可持续能源转型和全球矿产贸易模式的讨论提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Mineral resources and equitable economic development: South Asian mineral resources policy perspective with innovation for resources efficiency 矿产资源与公平经济发展:南亚矿产资源政策视角与资源效率创新
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105151

In the contemporary era, economies are heavily relying on minerals extraction, where the literature offers ambiguous evidence regarding minerals-growth nexus. To solve the puzzle, this research inspects the empirical association between mineral resources and economic prosperity in the South Asian nations from 1988 to 2022. This study also scrutinizes the importance of financial development, remittances, renewable energy use, and technological innovation. The research utilizes a panel dataset and applies the normality, stationarity, and cointegration tests. The results validates non-normal data distribution, stationarity of variables, and existence of long-run equilibrium association between them. To tackle non-normality and structural break issues, panel quantile regression and structural break ordinary least squares (OLS), are used. The study's results emphasize that mineral rents and remittances harm economic growth, indicating the poor outcomes associated with excessive dependence on external sources income. On the other hand, the factors identified as key drivers of sustainable economic expansion include financial progress, the use of green energy, and technical innovation. The results are tested for robustness via dynamic OLS, fully modified OLS, and canonical cointegration regression. This research recommends the significance of diversified revenue sources, fostering financial expansion, and making investments in renewable energy systems. To create more equitable growth, policymakers must focus on improved R&D and financial inclusion.

当今时代,各国经济严重依赖矿产开采,而有关矿产与经济增长关系的文献却提供了模棱两可的证据。为了解决这一难题,本研究考察了 1988 年至 2022 年南亚国家矿产资源与经济繁荣之间的经验关联。本研究还仔细研究了金融发展、汇款、可再生能源利用和技术创新的重要性。研究采用了面板数据集,并应用了正态性、平稳性和协整检验。结果验证了数据分布的非正态性、变量的静态性以及变量之间存在的长期均衡关系。为解决非正态性和结构断裂问题,采用了面板量化回归和结构断裂普通最小二乘法(OLS)。研究结果表明,矿产租金和汇款损害了经济增长,表明过度依赖外部收入来源会带来不良后果。另一方面,被确定为可持续经济扩张主要驱动力的因素包括金融进步、绿色能源的使用和技术创新。研究结果通过动态 OLS、完全修正 OLS 和卡农协整回归进行了稳健性检验。本研究认为,收入来源多元化、促进金融扩张和投资可再生能源系统具有重要意义。为了实现更加公平的增长,决策者必须重视改进研发和金融包容性。
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引用次数: 0
The economic and fiscal transition costs of global climate mitigation in fossil fuel export dependent economies 化石燃料出口依赖型经济体减缓全球气候影响的经济和财政过渡成本
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105234

Global decarbonization has large implications for trade and financial flows, and with few economies likely to be more affected than those relying heavily on exporting fossil fuels. This study first identifies 40 highly fossil fuel dependent economies and then, through several empirical strategies, examines the potential implications for oil rents, public finances and economic growth from global decarbonization. First, it is estimated that as a group, countries would lose more than 60 percent of oil rents alone, or between (present value adjusted) US$12–14 trillion, for the period 2023–2040 under a global ‘net-zero 2050’ versus a ‘business as usual’ scenario, - a loss equivalent in size to between 120 and 142 percent of GDP. Second, local projections model estimates suggest that there are large and persistent adverse growth and fiscal impacts associated with global decarbonization in emerging market and developing economy oil exporters. Here, a 10 percentage point (pp) decrease in (real) oil price inflation is associated with a decline of 1.58 percent in (real) GDP four periods after the shock; a decrease in annual government revenue (as a percentage of GDP) by between 0.6 and 0.8 pp and; an addition of about 0.5 pp to government debt per year. Finally, the study discusses relative vulnerabilities, and the domestic and international policy options needed to mitigate transition cost. Aside from a handful of primarily high-income countries, most countries have little or no savings to help them cushion an inevitable steep fall in demand for their main export and source of revenue, and more than one third of countries are characterized by either low or medium levels of human development. Whereas several countries are relatively well positioned to successfully mitigate the transition cost provided urgently prioritized domestic reforms, a substantial subgroup of countries will need international assistance to avoid potentially large negative socio-economic consequences.

全球去碳化会对贸易和资金流动产生巨大影响,很少有经济体会比那些严重依赖化石燃料出口的经济体受到的影响更大。本研究首先确定了 40 个高度依赖化石燃料的经济体,然后通过几种经验策略,研究了全球去碳化对石油租金、公共财政和经济增长的潜在影响。首先,据估计,与 "一切照旧 "情景相比,在全球 "2050 年净零碳排放 "情景下,2023-2040 年期间,作为一个整体,各国仅石油租金一项就将损失 60% 以上,或 12-14 万亿美元(经现值调整),损失规模相当于国内生产总值的 120% 至 142%。其次,本地预测模型估计表明,全球去碳化对新兴市场和发展中经济体石油出口国的增长和财政产生了巨大且持续的不利影响。在这里,(实际)油价通胀率每下降 10 个百分点,就会导致(实际)国内生产总值在受到冲击后的四个时期内下降 1.58%;政府年收入(占国内生产总值的百分比)减少 0.6 到 0.8 个百分点;政府债务每年增加约 0.5 个百分点。最后,本研究讨论了相对脆弱性,以及减轻过渡成本所需的国内和国际政策选择。除了少数几个主要是高收入国家外,大多数国家几乎没有储蓄来帮助它们缓解对其主要出口和收入来源的需求不可避免的急剧下降,超过三分之一的国家的人类发展水平处于低水平或中等水平。有几个国家的条件相对较好,只要紧急优先进行国内改革,就能成功地降低转型成本,但还有相当一部分国家需要国际援助,以避免可能产生的巨大负面社会经济后果。
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引用次数: 0
Studying the impact of investments in critical minerals and energy transition in transportation sector in Asia 研究关键矿产投资和能源转型对亚洲交通部门的影响
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105227

Using the CUP-BC estimation technique, this study explores Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in critical minerals and its impact on fuel consumption in the transportation sector across nine ASEAN countries from 1995 to 2022. Results indicate that a 1% increase in FDI in critical minerals is associated with a 0.54% reduction in fuel consumption. This underscores the role of minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel in advancing energy transition, particularly in electric vehicle (EV) battery production. Urbanization correlates with a 0.16% increase in fuel use, while higher income levels associate with a 0.08% rise. Investments in ICT and renewable energy deployment reduce fuel consumption, highlighting sustainable transport initiatives. The study recommends ASEAN prioritize FDI in critical minerals, bolster domestic capabilities, and develop infrastructure to support EV adoption and sustainable transport.

本研究采用 CUP-BC 估计技术,探讨了 1995 年至 2022 年期间关键矿产领域的外国直接投资及其对九个东盟国家运输部门燃料消耗的影响。结果表明,关键矿产领域外国直接投资每增加 1%,燃料消耗量就会减少 0.54%。这凸显了锂、钴和镍等矿产在推动能源转型,尤其是电动汽车(EV)电池生产方面的作用。城市化与燃料使用量增加 0.16% 相关,而收入水平提高则与燃料使用量增加 0.08% 相关。对信息和通信技术以及可再生能源的投资减少了燃料消耗,凸显了可持续交通倡议。研究建议东盟优先考虑关键矿产领域的外国直接投资,加强国内能力,并发展基础设施,以支持电动汽车的采用和可持续交通。
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引用次数: 0
Mineral resource abundance and digital economy development: can government digital governance make a difference? 矿产资源丰富与数字经济发展:政府的数字治理能否有所作为?
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105228

Existing literature generally supports a positive, linear correlation between natural resources and economic development. However, the potential relationship between mineral resource abundance and digital economy has received scant attention. This study aims to investigate this relationship by empirically examining a sample of 30 Chinese provinces from 2012 to 2021. The findings reveal an inverted U-shaped association between mineral resource abundance and digital economy, with an inflection point at 25%. Moreover, the influence of mineral resource abundance on the development of the digital economy is more pronounced under conditions characterized by elevated levels of marketization, stringent environmental regulations, and increased openness to international trade. Additionally, the presence of digital government governance weakens the inverted U-shaped relationship between mineral resource abundance and digital economy development. Spatial analysis further uncovers a positive relationship between natural resource abundance and digital economic development, particularly in the southeastern provinces of China. Moreover, natural resource abundance demonstrates a general upward trend across all provinces over time, further emphasizing its significant role in promoting digital economic development.

现有文献普遍支持自然资源与经济发展之间的正线性关系。然而,矿产资源丰富度与数字经济之间的潜在关系却鲜有人关注。本研究旨在通过对 2012 年至 2021 年中国 30 个省份的样本进行实证研究来探究这种关系。研究结果表明,矿产资源丰度与数字经济呈倒 U 型关系,25% 时出现拐点。此外,在市场化水平提高、环境监管严格、国际贸易开放度增加的条件下,矿产资源丰富度对数字经济发展的影响更为明显。此外,数字政府治理的存在削弱了矿产资源丰富度与数字经济发展之间的倒 U 型关系。空间分析进一步揭示了自然资源丰度与数字经济发展之间的正相关关系,尤其是在中国东南部省份。此外,随着时间的推移,各省的自然资源丰度总体呈上升趋势,这进一步凸显了自然资源丰度在促进数字经济发展方面的重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
50 years of Resources Policy: A bibliometric analysis 资源政策 50 年:文献计量分析
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105229

Resources Policy is a leading international journal in the field of economics and policy issues related to mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and use. The journal was created in 1974 and in 2024 celebrates its 50th anniversary. Motivated by this special event, this paper presents a bibliometric overview of the leading trends of the journal during its first half-century of existence. This paper analyses Resources Policy's publication and citation structure using the Web of Science Core Collection and examines various aspects, including the most cited documents, productive authors, institutions, countries, and popular keywords, and topics. The paper also develops a graphical visualization of the bibliographic data using the Visualization of Similarities (VOS) viewer software. This approach utilises various bibliometric techniques, including bibliographic coupling, co-citation, and co-occurrence of keywords. The results demonstrate a significant expansion of the journal over the past five years and highlight its global profile, with publications from around the world. Currently, Chinese researchers are the most productive, due to a significant increase in their contributions over the last five years.

资源政策》是与矿物和化石燃料开采、生产和使用相关的经济学和政策问题领域的国际领先期刊。该期刊创刊于 1974 年,2024 年将迎来创刊 50 周年。在这一特殊事件的推动下,本文对《资源政策》创刊半个世纪以来的主要发展趋势进行了文献计量学概述。本文利用 Web of Science 核心合集分析了《资源政策》的出版和引文结构,并从多个方面进行了研究,包括被引用次数最多的文献、高产作者、机构、国家、热门关键词和主题。本文还利用 "相似性可视化"(Visualization of Similarities,VOS)浏览器软件开发了书目数据可视化图形。这种方法利用了各种文献计量技术,包括书目耦合、共引和关键词共现。研究结果表明,在过去的五年中,该期刊的规模有了显著的扩大,并突出了其全球性的特点,其出版物来自世界各地。目前,中国研究人员的贡献率最高,因为在过去五年中,他们的贡献率显著增加。
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引用次数: 0
Local social perception of mining in Parauapebas and Canaã dos Carajás in the eastern Amazonia, Brazil 当地社会对巴西亚马逊东部 Parauapebas 和 Canaã dos Carajás 采矿的看法
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105237

The mineral industry plays a role in structural transformations in southeastern Pará, Eastern Amazonia, where large projects in this sector are located. This study analyzes aspects of the social perception of mining from image and reputation concepts in the Amazonian context. This paper aimed to examine the role of socioeconomic, political, and historical variables on social perception. It focused on four dimensions - economic, environmental, relationship and image, and general dimensions in Parauapebas and Canaã dos Carajás cities. The methodology consisted of the application in April of 2018 of questionnaires in a stratified sample of 960 and 349 randomly selected households in each of those cities, respectively. We employed the PCA/factor analysis method to examine whether a set of variables is relevant to social perception. The study found that the mining industry is a partner – not an intruder – because its beginning coincided with the social and historical formation of the territory. Perceptions of image and reputation were positive. Interviewee education, age, income, Whatsapp and Facebook usage, having a formal job, belonging to a union and a political party, occupation, and time of arrival are the main factors for social perception of mining. Despite their significantly negative opinion concerning mining's environmental impact, most interviewees pointed out that mining is reliable, friendly, transparent, and involved with the municipalities' problems. Our work fills a gap in growing literature that shows the challenges of companies, governments, and civil society in contemplating the dynamic aspects of mining for effective planning aiming at the social sustainability of mining regions.

矿业在东亚马孙地区帕拉州东南部的结构转型中扮演着重要角色,该地区也是矿业大型项目的所在地。本研究从亚马逊地区的形象和声誉概念出发,分析了社会对采矿业的看法。本文旨在研究社会经济、政治和历史变量对社会认知的作用。重点关注帕拉瓦佩巴斯市和卡纳昂-多斯-卡拉哈斯市的经济、环境、关系、形象和一般四个方面。研究方法包括在 2018 年 4 月对这两个城市分别随机抽取的 960 户和 349 户家庭进行分层抽样问卷调查。我们采用了 PCA/因素分析方法来研究一组变量是否与社会认知相关。研究发现,采矿业是一个合作伙伴,而不是入侵者,因为它的起步与该地区的社会和历史形成相吻合。对形象和声誉的看法是积极的。受访者的教育程度、年龄、收入、Whatsapp 和 Facebook 的使用情况、是否有正式工作、是否属于工会和政党、职业和抵达时间是影响社会对采矿业看法的主要因素。尽管大多数受访者对采矿业的环境影响持负面看法,但他们指出,采矿业是可靠的、友好的、透明的,并且与市政当局的问题息息相关。我们的研究填补了不断增加的文献中的空白,这些文献显示了企业、政府和民间社会在考虑采矿的动态方面所面临的挑战,从而有效规划矿区的社会可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond the glitter: An empirical assessment of the true risk and hedging role of precious metals 超越闪耀:对贵金属真实风险和对冲作用的实证评估
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105238

Precious metals are an essential component of asset class within the global financial market offering diverse benefits. Being significant store of value, they are immune to default risk, provide hedge against inflation and are deemed to be safe haven. This highlights the importance of precious metals in the broader context of financial and economic stability. This paper focuses on the S&P Precious Metal Index (PMI) to explore its resilience towards financial market risks and examines if it could offer effective hedge during crises. Using Markov Regime Switching model, we find significant volatility persistence in PMI returns undermining its suitability for dynamic hedging. However, absence of speculative trends makes the PMI a safe asset. Further, financial market stress, as revealed by estimated Component GARCH and Discrete Threshold Models, does not affect the unique and market risk of investing in PMI. Although we could not establish PMI as a strong safe haven or a zero-beta asset, its potential to be included in a risk-avert investor's portfolio cannot be negated. Its consistently low and stress-invariant time-varying beta safeguards wealth against losses. The role of PMI becomes particularly salient while considering portfolio optimization during crises. In recent years, particularly during and after the pandemic the hedging effectiveness of PMI has increased. There is, however, a point of concern. The market risk of PMI is explained mostly by its lagged values rather than exogenous factors like market stress. Given the endogenous nature of market risks, chaotic dynamics might be in operation making forecasting and regulating PMI prices difficult.

贵金属是全球金融市场资产类别的重要组成部分,具有多种优势。作为重要的价值储存手段,贵金属不受违约风险的影响,可对冲通货膨胀,并被视为避风港。这凸显了贵金属在金融和经济稳定大背景下的重要性。本文以 S&P 贵金属指数(PMI)为研究对象,探讨其抵御金融市场风险的能力,并研究其是否能在危机期间提供有效的对冲。利用马尔可夫制度转换模型,我们发现贵金属指数收益的波动持续性很强,这削弱了其动态对冲的适用性。然而,由于不存在投机趋势,因此 PMI 是一种安全的资产。此外,金融市场压力(如估计的成分 GARCH 模型和离散阈值模型所示)并不影响投资 PMI 的独特性和市场风险。尽管我们无法将 PMI 确立为一种强大的避风港或零贝塔资产,但不能否认其被纳入风险偏好投资者投资组合的潜力。它的贝塔系数一直很低,而且不受压力影响,可防止财富遭受损失。在考虑危机期间的投资组合优化时,PMI 的作用变得尤为突出。近年来,特别是在大流行病期间和之后,PMI 的对冲效果有所提高。然而,有一点值得关注。PMI 的市场风险主要是由其滞后值而不是市场压力等外生因素造成的。鉴于市场风险的内生性,可能会出现混乱的动态变化,使预测和调节 PMI 价格变得困难。
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引用次数: 0
Artisanal and small-scale gold mining governance and cross-sectoral policy coherence in Ghana 加纳手工和小规模采金业的治理与跨部门政策的一致性
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105235
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引用次数: 0
An investigation of fintech governance, natural resources and government stability on sustainability: Policy suggestions under the SDGs theme 金融科技治理、自然资源和政府稳定性对可持续性的影响调查:可持续发展目标主题下的政策建议
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105184

Climate change is the most pressing issue confronting every nation in this new century. Account for the SDGs (SDG) is to combat climate change and its effects as soon as possible. There is an immediate need to determine how financial technology (FinTech) influences sustainable development in light of the present global climate. Historically, times of plenty of natural resources have been associated with better economic growth, a phenomenon known as the resource curse avoided. On the other hand, the G20 countries also possess vast untapped potential in environmentally friendly renewable energy sources. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2010 to 2022 are analyzed in this research using monetary technology, organic resources, and government stability (GOS). Additionally, we consider the impact of urbanization, renewable energy use, and GDP per capita on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The research utilizes a variety of approaches in its analysis, including ADF and DF-GLS, among Padroni and Kao's PP unit root tests cointegration, FMOLS, and DOLS. This research utilizes panel quantile regression to examine the effects of variables and the vital PMG-ARDL test checks. Based on the findings, carbon emissions might be reduced with a one-unit increase in the usage of renewable energy sources, advancements in financial technology, conservation of natural resources, and political stability. Carbon emissions are positively affected by urbanization and GDP per capita. In light of these results, we urge the Group of Twenty (G20) nations to make renewable energy consumption and creating environmentally friendly financial products their top priorities in the fight for the SDGs.

气候变化是各国在新世纪面临的最紧迫问题。可持续发展目标账户(SDG)就是要尽快应对气候变化及其影响。鉴于当前的全球气候,迫切需要确定金融科技(FinTech)如何影响可持续发展。从历史上看,自然资源丰富的时期经济增长较快,这种现象被称为 "资源诅咒"。另一方面,G20 国家在环保型可再生能源方面也拥有巨大的未开发潜力。本研究利用货币技术、有机资源和政府稳定性(GOS)分析了 2010 年至 2022 年的二氧化碳(CO2)排放量。此外,我们还考虑了城市化、可再生能源使用和人均 GDP 对二氧化碳排放量的影响。研究采用了多种方法进行分析,包括 ADF 和 DF-GLS、Padroni 和 Kao 的 PP 单位根检验协整、FMOLS 和 DOLS。本研究利用面板量化回归来检验变量的影响和重要的 PMG-ARDL 检验。研究结果表明,可再生能源的使用、金融技术的进步、自然资源的保护和政治的稳定每增加一个单位,碳排放量就会减少。碳排放受城市化和人均 GDP 的积极影响。鉴于这些结果,我们敦促二十国集团(G20)将可再生能源消费和创造环保型金融产品作为实现可持续发展目标的首要任务。
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引用次数: 0
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Resources Policy
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