Pub Date : 2000-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530900000120
M. Cheve, R. Congar
This paper deals with a model of pollution accumulation in which a catastrophic environmental event occurs once the pollution stock exceeds some uncertain critical level. This problem is studied in a context of ‘hard uncertainty’ since we consider that the available knowledge concerning the value taken by the critical pollution threshold contains both randomness and imprecision. Such a general form of knowledge is modelled as a (closed) random interval. This approach is mathematically tractable and amenable to numerical simulations. In this framework we investigate the effect of hard uncertainty on the optimal pollution/consumption trade-off and we compare the results with those obtained both in the certainty case and in the case of ‘soft uncertainty’ (where only randomness prevails).
{"title":"Optimal pollution control under imprecise environmental risk and irreversibility","authors":"M. Cheve, R. Congar","doi":"10.1017/S1357530900000120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530900000120","url":null,"abstract":"This paper deals with a model of pollution accumulation in which a catastrophic environmental event occurs once the pollution stock exceeds some uncertain critical level. This problem is studied in a context of ‘hard uncertainty’ since we consider that the available knowledge concerning the value taken by the critical pollution threshold contains both randomness and imprecision. Such a general form of knowledge is modelled as a (closed) random interval. This approach is mathematically tractable and amenable to numerical simulations. In this framework we investigate the effect of hard uncertainty on the optimal pollution/consumption trade-off and we compare the results with those obtained both in the certainty case and in the case of ‘soft uncertainty’ (where only randomness prevails).","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"95 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126457327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2000-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530900000156
Inés Couso, S. Moral, P. Walley
Our aim in this paper is to clarify the notion of independence for imprecise probabilities. Suppose that two marginal experiments are each described by an imprecise probability model, i.e., by a convex set of probability distributions or an equivalent model such as upper and lower probabilities or previsions. Then there are several ways to define independence of the two experiments and to construct an imprecise probability model for the joint experiment. We survey and compare six definitions of independence. To clarify the meaning of the definitions and the relationships between them, we give simple examples which involve drawing balls from urns. For each concept of independence, we give a mathematical definition, an intuitive or behavioural interpretation, assumptions under which the definition is justified, and an example of an urn model to which the definition is applicable. Each of the independence concepts we study appears to be useful in some kinds of application. The concepts of strong independence and epistemic independence appear to be the most frequently applicable.
{"title":"A survey of concepts of independence for imprecise probabilities","authors":"Inés Couso, S. Moral, P. Walley","doi":"10.1017/S1357530900000156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530900000156","url":null,"abstract":"Our aim in this paper is to clarify the notion of independence for imprecise probabilities. Suppose that two marginal experiments are each described by an imprecise probability model, i.e., by a convex set of probability distributions or an equivalent model such as upper and lower probabilities or previsions. Then there are several ways to define independence of the two experiments and to construct an imprecise probability model for the joint experiment. We survey and compare six definitions of independence. To clarify the meaning of the definitions and the relationships between them, we give simple examples which involve drawing balls from urns. For each concept of independence, we give a mathematical definition, an intuitive or behavioural interpretation, assumptions under which the definition is justified, and an example of an urn model to which the definition is applicable. Each of the independence concepts we study appears to be useful in some kinds of application. The concepts of strong independence and epistemic independence appear to be the most frequently applicable.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129748674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2000-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530999100085
S. Georgiou, I. Bateman, I. Langford, Rosemary J. Day
Everyone likes clean seawater to bathe in and standards for acceptable seawater quality are set by the European Commission (CEC, 1976). In 1994, proposals to revise these standards were announced. These proposals were the subject of a House of Lords Select Committee Inquiry (HMSO, 1994, 1995), which deplored the fact that a soundly based cost–benefit analysis of the proposed revision had not been produced. This paper considers the question of developing means to assess the adequacy of the proposed revision from a social/public perception standpoint, using a mixed methodology of quantitative survey and qualitative focus groups. The aim of using such an approach is to provide a more in-depth and informative input into the decision-making process for policy makers. Our results show that mean willingness-to-pay amounts, representing the economic benefits of the revision to the 1976 EC bathing water standard, are roughly of the same order of magnitude as the estimated potential cost increases in average annual household water bills necessary to implement the revision. This result is qualified by analysis of how preferences are constructed in terms of socioeconomic variables, perceptions and attitudes towards risk, and issues such as trust, blame and accountability of institutions and regulatory processes involved in setting standards for bathing water quality.
{"title":"Coastal bathing water health risks: developing means of assessing the adequacy of proposals to amend the 1976 EC directive","authors":"S. Georgiou, I. Bateman, I. Langford, Rosemary J. Day","doi":"10.1017/S1357530999100085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530999100085","url":null,"abstract":"Everyone likes clean seawater to bathe in and standards for acceptable seawater quality are set by the European Commission (CEC, 1976). In 1994, proposals to revise these standards were announced. These proposals were the subject of a House of Lords Select Committee Inquiry (HMSO, 1994, 1995), which deplored the fact that a soundly based cost–benefit analysis of the proposed revision had not been produced. This paper considers the question of developing means to assess the adequacy of the proposed revision from a social/public perception standpoint, using a mixed methodology of quantitative survey and qualitative focus groups. The aim of using such an approach is to provide a more in-depth and informative input into the decision-making process for policy makers. Our results show that mean willingness-to-pay amounts, representing the economic benefits of the revision to the 1976 EC bathing water standard, are roughly of the same order of magnitude as the estimated potential cost increases in average annual household water bills necessary to implement the revision. This result is qualified by analysis of how preferences are constructed in terms of socioeconomic variables, perceptions and attitudes towards risk, and issues such as trust, blame and accountability of institutions and regulatory processes involved in setting standards for bathing water quality.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"133 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115254796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2000-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530900000089
P. Fishburn, L. Shepp
This paper describes and compares different optimization criteria for choosing fractional insurance coverage for risky ventures that may incur large losses and have high insurance rates due to substantial chances of failure. Four criteria are included: minimax loss, minimum expected loss, minimum expected loss with a limit on maximum loss, and maximum expected utility. The discussion is illustrated by satellite missions that can incur losses in excess of $100 million.
{"title":"Fractional insurance: strategies to deal with huge potential losses","authors":"P. Fishburn, L. Shepp","doi":"10.1017/S1357530900000089","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530900000089","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes and compares different optimization criteria for choosing fractional insurance coverage for risky ventures that may incur large losses and have high insurance rates due to substantial chances of failure. Four criteria are included: minimax loss, minimum expected loss, minimum expected loss with a limit on maximum loss, and maximum expected utility. The discussion is illustrated by satellite missions that can incur losses in excess of $100 million.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130395915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2000-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530900000107
E. Hellier, Daniel B. Wright, J. Edworthy
Standards and guidelines often recommend that the warning signal words ‘Danger’, ‘Warning’ and ‘Caution’ are used to denote decreasing levels of hazard on warning signs and labels. However the research into the perceived hazard of these words does not unequivocally support their use in this way. Here we extend the previous research by using a survey methodology and single estimation technique to investigate hazard perceptions of signal words in the UK population. In general our findings support the use of signal words to communicate hazard but we suggest that more research is needed into the specific terms recommended.
{"title":"Investigating the perceived hazard of warning signal words","authors":"E. Hellier, Daniel B. Wright, J. Edworthy","doi":"10.1017/S1357530900000107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530900000107","url":null,"abstract":"Standards and guidelines often recommend that the warning signal words ‘Danger’, ‘Warning’ and ‘Caution’ are used to denote decreasing levels of hazard on warning signs and labels. However the research into the perceived hazard of these words does not unequivocally support their use in this way. Here we extend the previous research by using a survey methodology and single estimation technique to investigate hazard perceptions of signal words in the UK population. In general our findings support the use of signal words to communicate hazard but we suggest that more research is needed into the specific terms recommended.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128020487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2000-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530999100073
E. Weber, U. Böckenholt, D. Hilton, B. Wallace
This study tested between two interpretations of confidence in diagnostic hypotheses: expected probability of being correct and conflict experienced during the diagnostic process. Physicians generated hypotheses for case histories with two plausible diagnoses, one having a higher population base rate but less severe clinical consequences than the other. Case information indicative of the two diagnoses was varied. Generation proportions for the two diagnoses and confidence judgments both deviated from the predictions of a Bayesian belief model, but in different ways. Generation of a hypothesis increased with diagnosis-consistent information and diagnosis base rates, but was not reduced by diagnosis-inconsistent information. Confidence was sensitive to both consistent and inconsistent information, but was not very sensitive to diagnosis base rates. Physician characteristics also affected hypothesis generation and confidence differentially. Female doctors had lower confidence in their diagnoses than male doctors, yet there were no gender differences in hypothesis generation. Experience affected hypothesis generation monotonically via the increased availability of previously diagnosed cases, while confidence first increased and then decreased with doctors' experience. The results are consistent with an interpretation of confidence judgments as an expression of decision conflict rather than an indication of likely diagnosis accuracy.
{"title":"Confidence judgments as expressions of experienced decision conflict","authors":"E. Weber, U. Böckenholt, D. Hilton, B. Wallace","doi":"10.1017/S1357530999100073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530999100073","url":null,"abstract":"This study tested between two interpretations of confidence in diagnostic hypotheses: expected probability of being correct and conflict experienced during the diagnostic process. Physicians generated hypotheses for case histories with two plausible diagnoses, one having a higher population base rate but less severe clinical consequences than the other. Case information indicative of the two diagnoses was varied. Generation proportions for the two diagnoses and confidence judgments both deviated from the predictions of a Bayesian belief model, but in different ways. Generation of a hypothesis increased with diagnosis-consistent information and diagnosis base rates, but was not reduced by diagnosis-inconsistent information. Confidence was sensitive to both consistent and inconsistent information, but was not very sensitive to diagnosis base rates. Physician characteristics also affected hypothesis generation and confidence differentially. Female doctors had lower confidence in their diagnoses than male doctors, yet there were no gender differences in hypothesis generation. Experience affected hypothesis generation monotonically via the increased availability of previously diagnosed cases, while confidence first increased and then decreased with doctors' experience. The results are consistent with an interpretation of confidence judgments as an expression of decision conflict rather than an indication of likely diagnosis accuracy.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128874432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2000-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530900000090
J. Williamson, R. Ranyard, L. Cuthbert
This study examined the applicability of Huber's (1997) model of risk management to a real-world consumer insurance decision, namely whether to insure a recently purchased item against possible mechanical breakdown in the future. Huber argued that decision makers manage the risks of negative outcomes by applying one or more defusing operators. Respondents in this study asked for whatever information they felt necessary to decide whether to take out an extended warranty on two consumer products of differing values. We found support for most aspects of the model, particularly in relation to risk defusing operators, but also identified some respondents who could not easily be accommodated within it, i.e. those who perceived risk, but did not seem prepared to take any action. We also found evidence for recognition primed insurance decisions. The results are interpreted from a bounded rationality perspective.
{"title":"Risk management in everyday insurance decisions: evidence from a process tracing study","authors":"J. Williamson, R. Ranyard, L. Cuthbert","doi":"10.1017/S1357530900000090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530900000090","url":null,"abstract":"This study examined the applicability of Huber's (1997) model of risk management to a real-world consumer insurance decision, namely whether to insure a recently purchased item against possible mechanical breakdown in the future. Huber argued that decision makers manage the risks of negative outcomes by applying one or more defusing operators. Respondents in this study asked for whatever information they felt necessary to decide whether to take out an extended warranty on two consumer products of differing values. We found support for most aspects of the model, particularly in relation to risk defusing operators, but also identified some respondents who could not easily be accommodated within it, i.e. those who perceived risk, but did not seem prepared to take any action. We also found evidence for recognition primed insurance decisions. The results are interpreted from a bounded rationality perspective.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132699731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2000-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530997000549
J. Salter
{"title":"Regions of Risk: a geographical introduction to disasters, Kenneth Hewitt, pp. 389, Addison Wesley Longman Harlow, (1997), ISBN 0 582 21005 4. 18.99","authors":"J. Salter","doi":"10.1017/S1357530997000549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530997000549","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"136 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132022429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Market exchange, social contract and the Kyoto Protocol","authors":"G. Dawson","doi":"10.1080/135753099347932","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099347932","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"312 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129371171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Deconstructing green supply and demand: PVC, healthcare products and the environment","authors":"S. New, Barbara A. Morton, K. Green","doi":"10.1080/135753099347978","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099347978","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126470726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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