R. O'connor, R. J. Bord, A. Fisher, Marieta P. Staneva, Veska Kozhouharova-Zhivkova, S. Dobreva
{"title":"Determinants of support for climate change policies in Bulgaria and the USA","authors":"R. O'connor, R. J. Bord, A. Fisher, Marieta P. Staneva, Veska Kozhouharova-Zhivkova, S. Dobreva","doi":"10.1080/135753099347987","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099347987","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127558662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tolerating risk: policy principles and public perceptions","authors":"P. Simmons, G. Walker","doi":"10.1080/135753099347941","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099347941","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122688082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I. Langford, S. Georgiou, Rosemary J. Day, I. Bateman
{"title":"Comparing perceptions of risk and quality with willingness to pay: a mixed methodological study of public preferences for reducing health risks from polluted coastal bathing waters","authors":"I. Langford, S. Georgiou, Rosemary J. Day, I. Bateman","doi":"10.1080/135753099347969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099347969","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128168925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A community that accepts risk should be rewarded","authors":"I. Duncan","doi":"10.1080/135753099347950","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099347950","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"91 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117343892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The most common methods of sensitivity analysis (SA) in decision-analytic modeling are based either on proximity in parameter-space to decision thresholds or on the range of payoffs that accompany parameter variation. As an alternative, we propose the use of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) as a sensitivity measure and argue from first principles that it is the proper measure of decision sensitivity. EVPI has significant advantages over conventional SA, especially in the multiparametric case, where graphical SA breaks down. In realistically sized problems, simple oneand two-way SAs may not fully capture parameter interactions, raising the disturbing possibility that many published decision analyses might be overconfident in their policy recommendations. To investigate the extent of this potential problem, we re-examined 25 decision analyses drawn from the published literature and calculated EVPI values for parameters on which sensitivity analyses had been performed, as well as the entire set of problem parameters. While we expected EVPI values to indicate greater problem sensitivity than conventional SA due to revealed parameter interaction, we in fact found the opposite: compared to EVPI, the oneand twoparameter SAs accompanying these problems dramatically overestimated problem sensitivity to input parameters. This phenomenon can be explained by invoking the flat maxima principle enunciated by von Winterfeldt and Edwards.
{"title":"Do Sensitivity Analyses Really Capture Problem Sensitivity? An Empirical Analysis Based on Information Value","authors":"James C. Felli, Gordon B. Hazen","doi":"10.1080/135753099348003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099348003","url":null,"abstract":"The most common methods of sensitivity analysis (SA) in decision-analytic modeling are based either on proximity in parameter-space to decision thresholds or on the range of payoffs that accompany parameter variation. As an alternative, we propose the use of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) as a sensitivity measure and argue from first principles that it is the proper measure of decision sensitivity. EVPI has significant advantages over conventional SA, especially in the multiparametric case, where graphical SA breaks down. In realistically sized problems, simple oneand two-way SAs may not fully capture parameter interactions, raising the disturbing possibility that many published decision analyses might be overconfident in their policy recommendations. To investigate the extent of this potential problem, we re-examined 25 decision analyses drawn from the published literature and calculated EVPI values for parameters on which sensitivity analyses had been performed, as well as the entire set of problem parameters. While we expected EVPI values to indicate greater problem sensitivity than conventional SA due to revealed parameter interaction, we in fact found the opposite: compared to EVPI, the oneand twoparameter SAs accompanying these problems dramatically overestimated problem sensitivity to input parameters. This phenomenon can be explained by invoking the flat maxima principle enunciated by von Winterfeldt and Edwards.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127947484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Risk communication and the social amplification of risk: theory, evidence and policy implications","authors":"N. Pidgeon","doi":"10.1080/135753099348049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099348049","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116200460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effect of heterogeneous valuations for threshold public goods: an experimental study","authors":"Rachel T. A. Croson, M. Marks","doi":"10.1080/135753099348012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099348012","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"348 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124295026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Measures of social risk perception and demand for risk reduction: an experimental comparison","authors":"Vincent Placer, P. Delquié","doi":"10.1080/135753099348030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099348030","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128424530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Will it happen? Can it happen? A new approach to formal risk analysis","authors":"J. Fox","doi":"10.1080/135753099348021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099348021","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122666588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Bennett, D. Coles, A. McDonald, S. French, J. Maule
{"title":"Improving risk communication: a programme of work in The Department of Health","authors":"P. Bennett, D. Coles, A. McDonald, S. French, J. Maule","doi":"10.1080/135753099348094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/135753099348094","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131317494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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