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Why Adopt a Federal Constitution? And Why Decentralize? – Determinants Based on a New Dataset 为什么要采用联邦宪法?为什么要去中心化?-基于新数据集的决定因素
Pub Date : 2017-05-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2962625
Jerg Gutmann, S. Voigt
Measurement of both federalism and decentralization has been contentious. We introduce three new indicators reflecting important aspects of both federalism and decentralization. The three new indicators are the result of principal component analysis. When we try to identify their main determinants, it turns out that the only explanatory variable that is significantly correlated with all three is the geographical size of a country. Other variables, such as the size of the population, linguistic fractionalization, or the level of democracy, only help to explain variation of one component. We interpret this as evidence that it is important to distinguish between federalism and decentralization, if one is interested in ascertaining their causes and consequences. We further test for the first time the effect of spatial inequality in a country on the adoption of federalism or decentralization and we find that it correlates significantly with constitutional federalism. This suggests that economically heterogeneous states are more likely to adopt a federal constitution.
对联邦制和分权的衡量一直存在争议。我们引入了三个新的指标,反映了联邦制和权力下放的重要方面。这三个新指标是主成分分析的结果。当我们试图确定它们的主要决定因素时,事实证明,唯一与这三者显著相关的解释变量是一个国家的地理大小。其他变量,如人口规模、语言分数化或民主水平,只能帮助解释一个组成部分的变化。我们将此解释为证据,表明如果有兴趣确定联邦制和分权的原因和后果,区分联邦制和分权是很重要的。我们首次进一步检验了一个国家的空间不平等对采用联邦制或分权制的影响,我们发现它与宪法联邦制显著相关。这表明经济差异较大的州更有可能采用联邦宪法。
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引用次数: 3
The Quantitative Effects of Tax Foresight: Not All States Are Equal 税收预见的数量效应:并非所有州都是平等的
Pub Date : 2017-03-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2942390
Ana María Herrera, Sandeep Kumar Rangaraju
This paper explores the effect of federal tax news on state economic activity. We estimate a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model, which allows us to consider the possibility that unobserved factors – such as credit and fiscal conditions – might be relevant for modeling the dynamic response of aggregate and state-level economic activity. We identify tax foresight as a shock to the implicit tax rate, measured by the yield spread between the one-year tax-exempt municipal bond and the one-year taxable Treasury bond. Our results suggest that an increase in the implicit tax rate raises national output over much of the anticipation period. In addition, anticipated tax increases give rise to expansions in state personal income and employment. We find that the variation in the responsiveness of economic activity across states is mostly explained by differences in industrial composition and income distribution, as well as by some demographic characteristics such as median income and education. Finally, using a proxy for exogenous changes in federal tax revenues, we investigate the dynamics of state-level personal income and employment. Our results point to considerable heterogeneity in the response across U.S. states. Moreover, they reveal that the long-run multiplier for an anticipated increase in tax revenues is about a tenth of the short-run multiplier for an unanticipated increase in taxes.
本文探讨了联邦税收新闻对州经济活动的影响。我们估计了一个因子增强向量自回归(FAVAR)模型,该模型允许我们考虑未观察到的因素(如信贷和财政状况)可能与总体和州一级经济活动的动态响应建模相关的可能性。我们认为,税收预见性是对隐性税率的冲击,隐性税率是用一年期免税市政债券与一年期应税国债之间的收益率差来衡量的。我们的研究结果表明,在预期期内,隐性税率的提高会提高国民产出。此外,预期的税收增加会增加国家的个人收入和就业。我们发现,各州经济活动响应性的差异主要由产业构成和收入分配的差异,以及收入中位数和教育程度等一些人口特征来解释。最后,使用联邦税收外生变化的代理,我们研究了州一级个人收入和就业的动态。我们的研究结果表明,美国各州的反应存在相当大的异质性。此外,它们揭示了预期税收增加的长期乘数大约是未预期税收增加的短期乘数的十分之一。
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引用次数: 7
The First McGee Annual Report on the Best and Worst States for Business 第一份麦吉年度报告,关于最佳和最差的商业州
Pub Date : 2017-03-15 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2933684
Robert W. McGee
This study is the first annual McGee Report on the best and worst states for business. The fifty states are ranked based on the extent to which they facilitate business creation and expansion. This study incorporated the data collected from five other studies, which included the examination of hundreds of variables. Utah was found to be the most business friendly state; California was least business friendly. States that voted Republican in the 2016 presidential election tended to be more business friendly than states that voted Democratic.
这项研究是第一次年度麦吉报告关于商业最好和最差的州。这50个州的排名是基于它们促进企业创建和扩张的程度。这项研究结合了从其他五项研究中收集的数据,其中包括对数百个变量的检查。犹他州被认为是对商业最友好的州;加州对商业最不友好。在2016年总统大选中投票给共和党的州往往比投票给民主党的州对商业更友好。
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引用次数: 1
Federalism and Federalization on the Fintech Frontier 金融科技前沿的联邦制和联邦化
Pub Date : 2017-03-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3191501
Brian R. Knight
The rise of financial technology (fintech) has the potential to provide better-quality financial services to more people. Although these enhanced financial services have arisen to meet consumer need, their regulatory status threatens that progress. Many fintech firms are regulated on a state-by-state basis even though their transactions are interstate, and they compete with firms that enjoy more consistent rules through federal preemption. This dynamic can harm efficiency, competitive equity, and political equity. This paper looks at developments in marketplace lending, money transmission, and online sales of securities in an attempt to identify situations in which greater federalization of the rules may be justified. It also considers a situation in which the federal government should abstain from intervening, even if it has the right to do so. Whether the states or federal government should take the lead in regulating fintech is an emerging and important question whose answer will affect the financial lives of consumers and investors. This paper seeks to begin a conversation about how we determine whether federalism or federalization is appropriate.
金融科技(fintech)的兴起有可能为更多人提供更优质的金融服务。虽然这些增强的金融服务是为了满足消费者的需求而出现的,但它们的监管地位威胁着这一进程。许多金融科技公司受到各州的监管,尽管它们的交易是跨州的,而且它们与那些通过联邦优先购买权享受更一致规则的公司竞争。这种动态会损害效率、竞争公平和政治公平。本文着眼于市场借贷、货币传输和在线证券销售的发展,试图确定在何种情况下更大的联邦化规则可能是合理的。它还考虑了一种情况,即联邦政府应该避免干预,即使它有权这样做。州政府还是联邦政府应该带头监管金融科技是一个新兴的重要问题,其答案将影响消费者和投资者的金融生活。本文试图开始讨论我们如何确定联邦制或联邦化是否合适。
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引用次数: 9
Preventing Tax Arbitrage via Hybrid Mismatches: BEPS Action 2 and Developing Countries 通过混合错配防止税收套利:BEPS行动2和发展中国家
Pub Date : 2017-02-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2941617
Błażej Kuźniacki, A. Turina, Thomas Dubut, Addy Mazz, Natalia Quiñones, Luis Eduardo Schoueri, C. West, P. Pistone, F. Zimmer
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) under Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Action 2 indicated that tax arbitrage via hybrid mismatch arrangements "result in a substantial erosion of the taxable bases of the countries concerned" and "have an overall negative impact on competition, efficiency, transparency and fairness." The relevant action allowing for neutralising the effects of hybrid mismatch arrangements is therefore needed and justified. To achieve that purpose, the OECD developed different anti-hybrid rules under BEPS Action 2. In that regard, however, one may ask whether addressing tax arbitrage via hybrid mismatches as proposed by the OECD is of interest and relevance for developing countries. This paper aims to map that unexplored research area by means of a comparative analysis in four developing countries - Uruguay, Colombia, Brazil, and South Africa.
经济合作与发展组织(OECD)在《税基侵蚀和利润转移(BEPS)行动2》中指出,通过混合错配安排进行的税收套利“导致相关国家的应税基础受到严重侵蚀”,“对竞争、效率、透明度和公平产生总体负面影响”。因此,需要和合理地采取相关行动,以消除混合错配安排的影响。为了实现这一目标,经合组织在BEPS行动2下制定了不同的反混合规则。然而,在这方面,人们可能会问,经合组织提出的通过混合错配来解决税收套利问题,是否符合发展中国家的利益和实际意义。本文旨在通过对乌拉圭、哥伦比亚、巴西和南非四个发展中国家的比较分析,绘制出这一尚未开发的研究领域。
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引用次数: 1
With a Little Help from My Friends: The Effects of Naloxone Access and Good Samaritan Laws on Opioid-Related Deaths 在我朋友的一点帮助下:纳洛酮获取和好撒玛利亚人法对阿片类药物相关死亡的影响
Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W23171
D. Rees, Joseph J. Sabia, Laura M. Argys, Joshua Latshaw, Dhaval M. Dave
In an effort to address the opioid epidemic, a majority of states have recently passed some version of a Naloxone Access Law (NAL) and/or a Good Samaritan Law (GSL). NALs allow lay persons to administer naloxone, which temporarily counteracts the effects of an opioid overdose; GSLs provide immunity from prosecution for drug possession to anyone who seeks medical assistance in the event of a drug overdose. This study is the first to examine the effect of these laws on opioid-related deaths. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System multiple cause-of-death mortality files for the period 1999-2014, we find that the adoption of a NAL is associated with a 9 to 11 percent reduction in opioid-related deaths. The estimated effect of GLSs on opioid-related deaths is of comparable magnitude, but not statistically significant at conventional levels. Finally, we find that neither NALs nor GSLs increase the recreational use of prescription painkillers.
为了解决阿片类药物泛滥的问题,大多数州最近都通过了某种形式的纳洛酮获取法(NAL)和/或好撒玛利亚人法(GSL)。NALs允许非专业人员使用纳洛酮,暂时抵消阿片类药物过量的影响;《全球毒品安全清单》规定,任何在药物过量情况下寻求医疗援助的人都可免于因持有毒品而被起诉。这项研究首次考察了这些法律对阿片类药物相关死亡的影响。使用1999-2014年期间国家生命统计系统多死因死亡率档案的数据,我们发现采用NAL与阿片类药物相关死亡减少9%至11%有关。gls对阿片类药物相关死亡的估计影响是相当的,但在常规水平上没有统计学意义。最后,我们发现NALs和gsl都没有增加处方止痛药的娱乐性使用。
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引用次数: 83
Polarized Education Levels and Civil War 两极分化的教育水平和内战
Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2910292
G. Canavire-Bacarreza, Michael Jetter, A. Agudelo
This paper suggests that societies exhibiting a large degree of educational polarization among its populace are systematically more likely to slip into civil conflict and civil war. Intuitively, political preferences and beliefs of highly educated citizens are likely to differ fundamentally from those of uneducated citizens. We propose an index of educational polarization and test its predictive power in explaining the likelihood of civil conflict and civil war, analyzing 146 countries (equivalent to over 93 percent of the world population) from 1950 to 2014. Our results produce strong evidence for a positive, statistically powerful, and economically sizeable relationship. In our benchmark estimation, a one standard deviation increase in educational polarization is associated with a 4.6 and 3.8 percentage point rise in the chances of civil conflict and civil war, respectively. These results are robust to the inclusion of the conventional control variables, country-fixed effects, and country-specific time trends.
本文认为,在民众中表现出高度教育两极化的社会更有可能系统性地陷入国内冲突和内战。直觉上,受过高等教育的公民的政治偏好和信仰可能与未受过教育的公民有根本的不同。我们提出了一个教育极化指数,并测试了其在解释国内冲突和内战可能性方面的预测能力,分析了146个国家(相当于世界人口的93%以上)从1950年到2014年。我们的结果提供了强有力的证据,证明了一种积极的、统计上强大的、经济上可观的关系。在我们的基准估计中,教育两极分化每增加一个标准差,内战和内战的可能性分别上升4.6和3.8个百分点。这些结果对于纳入常规控制变量、国家固定效应和国家特定时间趋势具有稳健性。
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引用次数: 1
Pension Reforms in the EU since the Early 2000's: Achievements and Challenges Ahead 21世纪初以来欧盟养老金改革:成就与挑战
Pub Date : 2016-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2964933
G. Carone, Per Eckefeldt, L. Giamboni, V. Laine, S. Pamies
Most EU Member States have carried out substantial pension reforms over the last decades in order to enhance fiscal sustainability, while maintaining adequate pension income. The intensity of pension reforms has been particularly strong since 2000. These reforms have been implemented through a wide range of measures that have substantially modified the pension system rules and parameters. One of the most important elements of pension reforms, aside of whether countries engaged or not in a systemic change, has been the introduction of mechanisms aimed at automatically adjusting (indexing) the key pension parameters (pension age, benefits, financing resources) to demographic pressure (e.g. changes in life expectancy, increase in the dependency ratio). Indeed, since the mid-1990's, half of the EU Member States have adopted either automatic balancing mechanisms, sustainability factors and / or automatic links between retirement age and life expectancy. All these pension reforms are projected to have a substantial impact on containing future pension expenditure trends. According to the latest long-term projections in the 2015 Ageing Report, public pension expenditure is projected to be close to 11% of GDP over the long run in the EU, almost the same as in 2013. However, the fiscal impact of ageing is still projected to be substantial in many EU countries, becoming apparent already over the course of the next two decades. This is also due to the very gradual phasing in of already legislated reforms, an issue that raises questions about the intergenerational fairness of the reforms and poses some doubt on the time-consistency of their implementation. Indeed, the sustainability-enhancing pension reforms legislated in a majority of EU countries will lead to a reduction of generosity of public pension schemes for future generations of retirees. But to make sure that these reforms will not have to face political and social resistance and risk of reversal in the moment they start to be implemented in full, other "flanking" policy measures are likely to be necessary: for example, reforms that boost retirement incomes by effectively extending working lives and employability of older workers (also through flexible working arrangements that allow people to keep working beyond current formal retirement age and to step down gradually from full-time to part-time to very part-time work) and provide other means of retirement incomes (e.g. private pensions) and appropriate social-safety nets to avoid that low-wage people follow back in poverty at old age.
大多数欧盟成员国在过去几十年中进行了实质性的养恤金改革,以提高财政可持续性,同时保持足够的养恤金收入。自2000年以来,养老金改革的力度尤为强劲。这些改革是通过广泛的措施实施的,这些措施大大修改了养恤金制度的规则和参数。除了各国是否参与系统性变革之外,养恤金改革的最重要因素之一是引入旨在根据人口压力(如预期寿命的变化、抚养比的增加)自动调整(索引)关键养恤金参数(养恤金年龄、福利、融资资源)的机制。事实上,自1990年代中期以来,一半的欧盟成员国采用了自动平衡机制、可持续性因素和/或退休年龄与预期寿命之间的自动联系。预计所有这些养恤金改革将对控制未来养恤金支出趋势产生重大影响。根据2015年老龄化报告中最新的长期预测,公共养老金支出预计将在欧盟长期内接近GDP的11%,与2013年几乎相同。然而,在许多欧盟国家,老龄化的财政影响预计仍将是巨大的,在未来20年的过程中已经变得明显。这也是由于已经立法的改革非常缓慢地分阶段进行,这一问题引发了对改革代际公平性的质疑,并对其实施的时间一致性提出了一些疑问。事实上,大多数欧盟国家立法实施的提高可持续性的养老金改革,将导致面向未来几代退休人员的公共养老金计划的慷慨程度下降。但为了确保这些改革在开始全面实施时不会面临政治和社会阻力以及逆转的风险,其他“侧翼”政策措施可能是必要的:例如,通过有效延长工作年限和老年工人的就业能力来提高退休收入的改革(也通过灵活的工作安排,允许人们在目前的正式退休年龄之后继续工作,并逐步从全职工作转为兼职工作,再到非全职工作),并提供其他退休收入方式(例如私人养老金)和适当的社会安全网,以避免低工资人群在老年时再次陷入贫困。
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引用次数: 80
Are Public Funds Used to Maintain Ruling Coalitions? Evidence from India 公共资金用于维持执政联盟吗?来自印度的证据
Pub Date : 2016-11-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3054872
Ishita Rajani
Political considerations can distort public policies in developing countries, making them less effective. While past literature has focused on incumbent politicians manipulating policies for reelection purposes in two-party settings, around 52% of the world’s democracies have coalition governments. In such settings, a national incumbent can not only allocate funds to woo voters pre-election, but also to buy legislative support from smaller parties post-election. My paper presents a simple framework formalizing these two mechanisms and tests it using a newly constructed dataset of district-level disbursements from India’s Total Sanitation Campaign. These two mechanisms give rise to two distinct patterns in the disbursement of funds: the “Buying Votes Cycle” and the “Patronage Cycle.” The former is the traditional cycle with a pre-election increase (60%) in the release of funds in swing districts for the national parties. The latter is a previously undocumented cycle with a post-election increase (55%) in the release of funds that occurs, as predicted by the model, only in safe districts for smaller parties. Both cycles are large enough to affect the timing of household consumption and hence their welfare.
政治考虑可能扭曲发展中国家的公共政策,使其不那么有效。虽然过去的文献关注的是在任政治家在两党环境下为连任而操纵政策,但世界上约52%的民主国家都有联合政府。在这种情况下,国家现任者不仅可以在选举前拨出资金来吸引选民,而且还可以在选举后从较小的政党那里购买立法支持。我的论文提出了一个简单的框架,将这两种机制形式化,并使用印度全面卫生运动中新构建的地区级支出数据集对其进行了测试。这两种机制产生了两种截然不同的资金支付模式:“买票周期”和“赞助周期”。前者是传统的周期,在摇摆地区,为国家政党发放的资金在选举前增加(60%)。后者是一个之前没有记录的周期,选举后资金释放增加(55%),正如模型预测的那样,只发生在小政党的安全地区。这两个周期都大到足以影响家庭消费的时机,从而影响他们的福利。
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引用次数: 0
R. v. Comeau and Section 121 of the Constitution Act, 1867: Freeing the Beer and Fortifying the Economic Union R. v. comau和1867年宪法法案第121条:解放啤酒和加强经济联盟
Pub Date : 2016-10-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2804711
Malcolm Lavoie
A recent decision from the New Brunswick Provincial Court may have significant implications for Canada’s constitutional structure. R. v. Comeau held that s. 121 of the Constitution Act, 1867, the constitution’s internal free trade provision, prohibits both interprovincial tariffs as well as non-tariff trade barriers. In doing so, the court departed from a line of precedents holding that s. 121 prohibits only the erection of outright tariffs or duties on interprovincial trade. Ultimately, the court held that s. 134(b) of New Brunswick’s Liquor Control Act, which effectively prohibits the possession of all but small quantities of liquor purchased out of province, constituted a non-tariff barrier in contravention of s. 121. The Supreme Court of Canada recently granted leave to appeal. The author argues that the judge was correct in holding that s. 121 should extend at least to some non-tariff barriers. Yet the decision leaves important questions unanswered, including how s. 121 can be reconciled with provincial regulatory authority, how a construction of s. 121 should be informed by the constitutional principles of democracy and federalism, and how doctrine can be developed so as to appropriately distinguish between permissible and impermissible non-tariff barriers. The author proposes a framework that aims to reconcile the trial judge’s analysis with these additional considerations. Une decision recente de la Cour provinciale du Nouveau-Brunswick pourrait avoir d’importantes consequences pour la structure constitutionnelle du Canada. Dans R. c. Comeau, le tribunal a declare que l’art. 121 de la Loi constitutionnelle de 1867, disposition de la Constitution traitant du libre-echange interieur, interdit tant l’imposition de droits tarifaires interprovinciaux que les barrieres non tarifaires au commerce. Ce faisant, le tribunal s’est eloigne de la jurisprudence qui soutient que l’art. 121 interdit uniquement l’imposition de tarifs ou droits tarifaires sur le commerce interprovincial. En fin de compte, le tribunal a juge que le par. 134(b) de la Loi sur la reglementation des alcools du Nouveau-Brunswick, qui interdit carrement la possession d’alcool achete ailleurs que dans la province, sauf de tres petites quantites, constitue une barriere non tarifaire, en contravention de l’art. 121. La Cour supreme du Canada a recemment accorde la permission d’en appeler de la decision. L’auteur fait valoir que le juge a eu raison de considerer que l’art. 121 doit s’appliquer au moins a certains obstacles non tarifaires. La decision laisse neanmoins d’importantes questions en suspens : comment l’art. 121 peut-il etre rapproche de l’organisme de reglementation provincial, comment une interpretation de l’art. 121 devrait-elle s’inspirer des principes constitutionnels de democratie et de federalisme, et comment la doctrine peutelle etre developpee de facon a ce que la distinction appropriee puisse etre faite entre les obstacles non tarifaires admissibles et les obstacl
新不伦瑞克省法院最近的一项裁决可能对加拿大的宪法结构产生重大影响。R. v. comau认为,1867年宪法法案第121条,即宪法的内部自由贸易条款,禁止省际关税和非关税贸易壁垒。在这样做的过程中,最高法院偏离了以往的判例,即第121条只禁止对省际贸易征收直接关税或关税。最终,法院裁定新不伦瑞克省《酒类控制法》第134(b)条违反了第121条,构成了非关税壁垒。该条有效地禁止持有除少量外从省购买的所有酒类。加拿大最高法院最近允许上诉。作者认为,法官认为第121条至少应适用于某些非关税壁垒是正确的。然而,这一决定留下了一些重要的问题没有得到回答,包括第121条如何与省级监管机构协调,第121条的构建应如何受到民主和联邦制的宪法原则的影响,以及如何发展理论以适当区分允许和不允许的非关税壁垒。作者提出了一个框架,旨在调和初审法官的分析与这些额外的考虑。新不伦瑞克省法院最近的一项决定是“对加拿大宪法结构的重要影响”。丹·r·c·柯莫,法庭宣布自己是艺术。121 . 1867年的《法国宪法》,关于自由贸易的《宪法》的处置,关于省际间关税权利的征收,关于贸易非关税壁垒的征收。法官说:“法庭是法律学上最具争议的法庭。”省际间唯一征收关税省际间贸易关税。根据第134(b)条关于新不伦瑞克省酒类管理的法律规定,根据《新不伦瑞克省酒类管理条例》,根据《新不伦瑞克省酒类管理条例》,根据《新不伦瑞克省酒类管理条例》,根据《新不伦瑞克省酒类管理条例》,根据《新不伦瑞克省酒类管理条例》,根据《新不伦瑞克省酒类管理条例》,根据《新不伦瑞克省酒类管理条例》,根据《新不伦瑞克省酒类管理条例》,构成一个非关税壁垒。121. 加拿大最高法院的一项建议是,根据《关于允许上诉的决定》。导演的价值在于评判,而评判的理由在于艺术。121 .在非关税壁垒方面,不存在一些障碍。《决定》是一篇关于“重要问题”的评论。121 .省部级行政管理机构,省级行政管理机构,省级行政管理机构。121 .民主和联邦制原则的启动者,民主和联邦制原则的启动者,民主和联邦制原则的启动者,民主和联邦制原则的启动者,民主和联邦制原则的启动者,民主和联邦制原则的启动者,民主和联邦制原则的启动者,民主和联邦制原则的启动者,民主和联邦制原则的启动者,民主和联邦制原则的启动者。L 'auteur提出了一项建议,我将对首映式进行分析,并提出了其他考虑因素。
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引用次数: 0
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