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Spatial spillover and determinants of tourism efficiency: A low carbon emission perspective 旅游效率的空间溢出与决定因素:低碳排放视角
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231167045
Hongwei Liu, Chenchen Gao, Henry Tsai
This paper measures tourism carbon efficiency (TCE) in China by incorporating energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into an efficiency assessment framework, and to further investigate the determinants of TCE by considering the spatial spillover effects. To do this, a bootstrap slacks-based measure (SBM) model was applied to assess the TCE in 30 provincial-level administrative regions of China from 2008 to 2019. Next, the Moran’s index and spatial Durbin model (SDM) were adopted to explore the spatial distribution and determinants of TCE. The results indicate that regional differences affect the level of China’s TCE, as do spatial spillover effects. In addition, technology innovation, urbanization rate, and government support positively affect TCE. In contrast, economic growth negatively affects TCE. Educational attainment, green infrastructure, and government support have a negative spatial spillover effect on TCE. Transportation infrastructure has a negative total effect on TCE.
本文通过将能源消耗和二氧化碳排放纳入效率评估框架来衡量中国的旅游碳效率,并通过考虑空间溢出效应来进一步研究旅游碳效率的决定因素。为此,应用基于bootstrap松弛度的测度(SBM)模型对2008年至2019年中国30个省级行政区的TCE进行了评估。其次,采用Moran指数和空间Durbin模型(SDM)对TCE的空间分布和决定因素进行了研究。结果表明,区域差异和空间溢出效应都会影响中国TCE的水平。此外,技术创新、城市化率和政府支持对TCE有正向影响。相比之下,经济增长对TCE则有负向影响。教育程度、绿色基础设施和政府支持都对TCE产生负空间溢出效应。交通基础设施对TCE具有负总效应。
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引用次数: 0
Internet use and inverted U-shaped employment polarization in tourism occupations 互联网使用与旅游职业就业的倒u型极化
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-21 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231161879
Wei Guo, Jing Wang, Yue Kang
The existing literature has not fully explored the polarization of tourism employment and the causes of this polarization, and this article makes contributions to addressing this issue. Using data on tourism-related occupations from the China General Social Survey , the article finds that current tourism employment is polarized in an inverted “U” shape, with the top of the polarization occurring in the middle-skilled occupational area. This differs significantly from the existing literature, which concludes that there is a “U” shaped employment polarization. The article finds that workers’ use of the Internet is the main cause of the inverted U-shaped polarization of tourism employment. This is reflected in the relatively low proportion of employment in the low-skilled and high-skilled occupational groups and the relatively high and stable proportion of employment in the middle-skilled occupational groups. However, dynamically, the employment of low-skilled groups tends to increase, and high-employment groups tend to decrease. These results reveal new findings in the tourism labor market and have important implications for current research on tourism employment.
现有文献并未充分探讨旅游就业的两极分化及其原因,本文为解决这一问题做出了贡献。利用中国综合社会调查的旅游相关职业数据,本文发现当前的旅游就业呈倒“U”型极化,极化的顶部出现在中等技能职业领域。这与现有文献的结论有很大不同,现有文献认为存在“U”型就业两极分化。研究发现,劳动者对互联网的使用是造成旅游就业“倒u”型极化的主要原因。这体现在低技能和高技能职业群体的就业比例相对较低,中等技能职业群体的就业比例相对较高且稳定。但从动态上看,低技能群体的就业有增加的趋势,高技能群体的就业有减少的趋势。这些结果揭示了旅游劳动力市场的新发现,对当前旅游业就业研究具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Can immigration moderate the adverse effects of political instability on international tourism? A case study of Australia 移民能否缓和政治不稳定对国际旅游业的不利影响?以澳大利亚为例
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-14 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231163206
Charbel Bassil, Ghialy Yap
We estimate the impact of political instability and the population of immigrants in Australia on the flow of international tourist arrivals. We hypothesize that political instability has a short-term negative effect while the population of immigrants in Australia may have a positive or negative effect depending on time span. Moreover, we postulate that the population of immigrants resorbs in the short run partially or totally the adverse effect of political instability. Our empirical strategy takes into consideration potential heterogeneity among cross-sections and differentiates between short-term and long-term effects. For this purpose, we use the Pooled Mean Group estimator in a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. Findings from the pooled estimations suggest that, in the short run, the population of immigrants in Australia reduces the negative effect of political instability on international tourism flows. However, its effect is negative in the long run. We also find evidence for heterogeneity across countries.
我们估计了澳大利亚政治不稳定和移民人口对国际游客流量的影响。我们假设政治不稳定会产生短期的负面影响,而澳大利亚的移民人口可能会根据时间跨度产生积极或消极的影响。此外,我们假设移民人口在短期内部分或全部吸收了政治不稳定的不利影响。我们的实证策略考虑了横截面之间的潜在异质性,并区分了短期和长期影响。为此,我们在面板自回归分布式滞后模型中使用了池均值群估计器。汇总估计的结果表明,从短期来看,澳大利亚的移民人口减少了政治不稳定对国际旅游业流动的负面影响。然而,从长远来看,其影响是负面的。我们还发现了国家间异质性的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Fine-grained tourism demand forecasting: A decomposition ensemble deep learning model 细粒度旅游需求预测:一个分解集成深度学习模型
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-06 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231158705
Jianwei Bi, T. Han, Yanbo Yao
Compared with coarse-grained forecasting, fine-grained tourism demand forecasting is a more challenging task, but research on this issue is very scarce. To address this issue, a decomposition ensemble deep learning model is proposed by integrating CEEMDAN, CNNs, LSTM networks, and AR models. The CEEMDAN can decompose complex tourism demand data into multiple components with simpler characteristics, thereby reducing the complexity of forecasting. The CNNs and LSTM networks can fully capture the locally recurring patterns and the long-term dependencies of the components obtained by CEEMDAN. The AR model can capture the scale of tourism demand data, which can overcome the problem that the output scale of the deep neural networks (i.e., CNNs and LSTM networks) is not sensitive to the scale of the inputs. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by comparing with five benchmark models using real-time data on tourist volumes at two attractions.
与粗粒度预测相比,细粒度旅游需求预测是一项更具挑战性的任务,但对这一问题的研究却非常匮乏。为了解决这个问题,通过集成CEEMDAN、CNNs、LSTM网络和AR模型,提出了一种分解集成深度学习模型。CEEMDAN可以将复杂的旅游需求数据分解为多个具有更简单特征的组件,从而降低预测的复杂性。CNNs和LSTM网络可以完全捕获CEEMDAN获得的组件的本地重复模式和长期依赖性。AR模型可以捕捉旅游需求数据的规模,可以克服深度神经网络(即CNN和LSTM网络)的输出规模对输入规模不敏感的问题。通过使用两个景点的旅游量实时数据与五个基准模型进行比较,验证了所提出模型的有效性。
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引用次数: 1
Modelling the asymmetric productivity effects of tourism demand 旅游需求的非对称生产力效应建模
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-22 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231158439
N. Kumar
A recent critique of the tourism-growth literature raises concerns about whether tourism leads to permanent economic growth. We argue that tourism can be linked to total factor productivity. Tourism demand spurs efficiency gains in the tourism sector through learning by doing. However, because tourism is demand-led, asymmetric effects may arise in the tourism-productivity association. To model the permanent growth effects of tourism, we use panel asymmetric ARDL models with annual data from 94 countries over the period 1995–2018. The finding implies that tourism has permanent but asymmetric growth effects.
最近对旅游业增长文献的批评引发了人们对旅游业是否能带来永久经济增长的担忧。我们认为旅游业可以与全要素生产率挂钩。旅游业需求通过边做边学,促进旅游业效率的提高。然而,由于旅游业是以需求为导向的,旅游生产力协会可能会出现不对称效应。为了对旅游业的永久增长效应进行建模,我们使用面板不对称ARDL模型,其中包含1995-2018年期间94个国家的年度数据。这一发现表明,旅游业具有永久但不对称的增长效应。
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引用次数: 0
Metaverse research propositions: Online intermediaries meta研究主张:在线中介
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-19 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231159520
Apostolos Ampountolas, Giuseppina Menconi, G. Shaw
One of the sectors with the fastest growth rates worldwide is the hospitality and tourism industry, although the pandemic caused losses and setbacks for the industry. The potential of the metaverse and virtual travel could lead to the emergence of a brand-new sector. Thus, traditional online travel agencies may need to change their utility model in the future to accommodate the new technology. This virtual transformation in the metaverse entails more flexible travel options, customized consumer services, and improved entertainment. The employment of augmented and virtual reality technology in the metaverse may enable seamless interaction between users in real and simulated surroundings. As such future developments in metaverse technology may enable fully immersive experiences. Customers can now get real-time price changes, availability, and promotions bypassing third-party distribution platforms. This research note aims to introduce the metaverse’s enormous potential and to define three research proposals for additional investigation.
全球增长速度最快的行业之一是酒店业和旅游业,尽管疫情给该行业带来了损失和挫折。元宇宙和虚拟旅行的潜力可能会导致一个全新行业的出现。因此,传统的在线旅行社未来可能需要改变其实用新型,以适应新技术。元宇宙中的这种虚拟转型需要更灵活的旅行选择、定制的消费服务和改进的娱乐。在元宇宙中使用增强和虚拟现实技术可以实现用户在真实和模拟环境中的无缝交互。因此,元宇宙技术的未来发展可能会带来完全沉浸式的体验。客户现在可以绕过第三方分销平台获得实时价格变化、可用性和促销活动。本研究报告旨在介绍元宇宙的巨大潜力,并确定三项研究建议以供进一步研究。
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引用次数: 4
Collaborative forecasting of tourism demand for multiple tourist attractions with spatial dependence: A combined deep learning model 基于空间依赖的多景点旅游需求协同预测:一种组合深度学习模型
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231153908
Jianwei Bi, T. Han, Yanbo Yao
To forecast the tourism demand across a set of tourist attractions with spatial dependence, a new model is proposed, which has three stages: tourist attraction selection, base predictor generation, and base predictor combination. In stage 1, a method for selecting associated attractions based on multi-dimensional scaling is used to determine the strength of the spatial dependence between each pair of attractions. In stage 2, a hybrid base predictor based on LSTM networks and Autoregressive model is developed, where the LSTM networks are used to capture the spatial dependence among attractions, and the Autoregressive model is used capture the scale of tourist volume at each attraction. In stage 3, a strategy for combining these base predictors is proposed; it can alleviate the overfitting problem of LSTM and improve the stability of forecasts. Finally, the superiority of the model is verified through the data on tourist volumes at 77 attractions in Beijing.
针对具有空间依赖性的旅游需求预测问题,提出了一个新的旅游需求预测模型,该模型分为三个阶段:旅游景点选择、基础预测量生成和基础预测量组合。在第一阶段,采用一种基于多维尺度的关联景点选择方法来确定每对景点之间的空间依赖强度。第二阶段,构建了基于LSTM网络和自回归模型的混合基预测器,利用LSTM网络捕获景点间的空间依赖性,利用自回归模型捕获各景点的游客数量规模。在第三阶段,提出了一种结合这些基本预测因子的策略;可以缓解LSTM的过拟合问题,提高预测的稳定性。最后,通过北京市77个景点的客流量数据验证了该模型的优越性。
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引用次数: 3
The impact of national tourism day festivals on inbound tourism: A spatial difference-in-differences approach 国家旅游日节日对入境旅游的影响:一个空间差中差的方法
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-06 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231155301
Jiafeng Gu
A comprehensive and accurate assessment of the policy effect of national tourism days is of great significance to further promote urban inbound tourism. Based on the panel data of 59 cities in China from 2000 to 2017, this paper evaluates the local and spatial spillover effects of the China Tourism Day policy on urban inbound tourism using a spatial difference-in-differences model based on the establishment of the China Tourism Day as a quasi-natural experiment. The study found that the China Tourism Day policy significantly increased the number of foreign tourists in cities but significantly reduced their average length of stay, with a positive spatial spillover effect on inbound tourism in surrounding cities.
全面准确评估全国旅游日政策效果,对进一步推进城市入境旅游具有重要意义。基于2000-2007年中国59个城市的面板数据,以中国旅游日为准自然实验,采用差异中的空间差异模型,评估了中国旅游日政策对城市入境旅游的地方和空间溢出效应。研究发现,中国旅游日政策显著增加了外国游客在城市的数量,但显著降低了他们的平均停留时间,对周边城市的入境旅游具有积极的空间溢出效应。
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引用次数: 1
Tourism development and women employment: A study on the European union countries 旅游业发展与妇女就业:欧盟国家研究
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-06 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231155535
Anil Bolukoglu, Tugce Gozukucuk
The intergovernmental institutions recommend tourism development as a policy goal for reducing gender inequality through employment channels. However, such approaches ignore the indirect and induced effects of tourism sector development on women’s employment through male dominated forward and backward linkages. Adverse spillover effects of tourism-related sectors limit the impact of tourism on generating women’s employment. With this goal in mind, the study estimates the spillover effect of tourism sector development on the gender gap in selected employment indicators of 27 European Union countries between 2008 and 2019. Results show that development in the tourism sector, measured by the number of tourists per active population, improves the gender gap in labor force participation, employment, and unemployment among EU countries. Considering the precarious working conditions of the tourism sector, results only reflect a limited aspect of women’s empowerment.
政府间机构建议将发展旅游业作为通过就业渠道减少性别不平等的政策目标。但是,这种办法忽略了旅游部门发展通过男性主导的向前和向后联系对妇女就业的间接和诱发影响。旅游相关部门的不利溢出效应限制了旅游业对创造妇女就业的影响。考虑到这一目标,该研究估计了2008年至2019年期间27个欧盟国家选定就业指标中旅游业发展对性别差距的溢出效应。结果表明,旅游业的发展,以每活跃人口的游客数量来衡量,改善了欧盟国家在劳动力参与、就业和失业方面的性别差距。考虑到旅游部门不稳定的工作条件,结果只反映了赋予妇女权力的有限方面。
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引用次数: 1
Does industry resilience matter for postshock industrial policy? A focus on tourism-related industries 产业弹性对冲击后的产业政策有影响吗?关注旅游相关产业
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231154314
Elena Prodi, V. Fasone, M. R. Di Tommaso
Selective industrial policies have been increasingly used by governments to achieve desired normative goals. However, they have been revealed to be complex and vulnerable interventions, demanding robust tools able to justify choices and mitigate potential ‘government failures’. In light of the emerging challenges and potential disruptions that might threaten our economies and societies, we contend that postshock industry resilience can be a valuable analytical framework to understand how different sectors react to unforeseen shocks. Accordingly, we present a methodology that measures postshock industry resilience and apply it to the Italian case in the aftermath of the 2008 shock. Particular attention is devoted to tourism-related industries. Main findings show that the industries reacted heterogeneously to the 2008 shock. For tourism-related industries, the results suggest following an ad hoc approach to the analysis of each tourism-focused industry to avoid generalizations that might lead to incorrect policy interpretations.
政府越来越多地利用选择性产业政策来实现期望的规范目标。然而,它们被发现是复杂而脆弱的干预措施,需要强有力的工具来证明选择的合理性,并减轻潜在的“政府失败”。鉴于可能威胁我们的经济和社会的新挑战和潜在破坏,我们认为,冲击后行业的韧性可以成为一个有价值的分析框架,以了解不同部门如何应对不可预见的冲击。因此,我们提出了一种衡量冲击后行业韧性的方法,并将其应用于2008年冲击后的意大利案例。特别关注旅游业。主要调查结果显示,各行业对2008年的冲击反应不一。对于与旅游业相关的行业,研究结果表明,对每一个以旅游业为重点的行业进行分析时,都要采取特别的方法,以避免可能导致错误政策解释的泛化。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Tourism Economics
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