Pub Date : 2023-08-02DOI: 10.1177/13548166231189142
Jaehee Gim, S. Jang
In an attempt to manage earnings upward, firm managers commonly deviate from normal business activities (i.e., real earnings management) and misrepresent accruals on financial reports (i.e., accrual earnings management). The current study aimed to demonstrate that due to the financial and regulatory uniqueness of lodging real estate investment trusts (REITs), lodging REITs diverge from lodging C-corporations (C-corps) in their earnings management behavior. Specifically, drawing on signaling theory and precautionary motive theory, the current study showed that compared to lodging C-corps, lodging REITs are less likely to engage in accrual earnings management but more actively conduct real earnings management. Furthermore, the deterrent impact of cash holdings on real earnings management using unusually low discretionary expenditures was found to be weaker for lodging REITs than for lodging C-corps. The findings of the current study will enhance stakeholders’ understanding of lodging firms’ earnings management behavior by shedding light on the different business types in the lodging industry.
{"title":"Earnings management practices of the lodging industry: Diverging behaviors of lodging real estate investment trusts and lodging C-corps","authors":"Jaehee Gim, S. Jang","doi":"10.1177/13548166231189142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166231189142","url":null,"abstract":"In an attempt to manage earnings upward, firm managers commonly deviate from normal business activities (i.e., real earnings management) and misrepresent accruals on financial reports (i.e., accrual earnings management). The current study aimed to demonstrate that due to the financial and regulatory uniqueness of lodging real estate investment trusts (REITs), lodging REITs diverge from lodging C-corporations (C-corps) in their earnings management behavior. Specifically, drawing on signaling theory and precautionary motive theory, the current study showed that compared to lodging C-corps, lodging REITs are less likely to engage in accrual earnings management but more actively conduct real earnings management. Furthermore, the deterrent impact of cash holdings on real earnings management using unusually low discretionary expenditures was found to be weaker for lodging REITs than for lodging C-corps. The findings of the current study will enhance stakeholders’ understanding of lodging firms’ earnings management behavior by shedding light on the different business types in the lodging industry.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47445905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.1177/13548166221104291
Han Liu, Yongjing Wang, Haiyan Song, Y. Liu
Tourism demand nowcasting is generally carried out using econometric models that incorporate either macroeconomic variables or search query data as explanatory variables. Nowcasting model accuracy is normally evaluated by traditional loss functions. This study proposes a novel statistical method, the monotonicity test, to assess whether the nowcasting errors obtained from the ordinary least squares, generalised dynamic factor model and generalised dynamic factor model combined with mixed data sampling model are monotonically decreasing when new data on explanatory variables become available, based on the mixed frequency data between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2019. The results of the empirical analysis show that nowcasts generated results based on two data sources combined are superior to that based on a single data source. Compared with traditional loss functions, the monotonicity test leads to a more objective and convincing nowcasting model performance. This study is the first attempt to evaluate tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test.
{"title":"Measuring tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test","authors":"Han Liu, Yongjing Wang, Haiyan Song, Y. Liu","doi":"10.1177/13548166221104291","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166221104291","url":null,"abstract":"Tourism demand nowcasting is generally carried out using econometric models that incorporate either macroeconomic variables or search query data as explanatory variables. Nowcasting model accuracy is normally evaluated by traditional loss functions. This study proposes a novel statistical method, the monotonicity test, to assess whether the nowcasting errors obtained from the ordinary least squares, generalised dynamic factor model and generalised dynamic factor model combined with mixed data sampling model are monotonically decreasing when new data on explanatory variables become available, based on the mixed frequency data between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2019. The results of the empirical analysis show that nowcasts generated results based on two data sources combined are superior to that based on a single data source. Compared with traditional loss functions, the monotonicity test leads to a more objective and convincing nowcasting model performance. This study is the first attempt to evaluate tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44035504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-01DOI: 10.1177/13548166221106442
Maruška Vizek, N. Stojčić, Josip Mikulić
The tourism effects on housing prices within cities and regions have been analyzed in the literature, but there is a lack of evidence on the spatial effects of these processes. In areas hit by overtourism, house price hikes have the potential of spillovers to adjacent cities and towns as well as across wider space. Our study widens existing knowledge on the tourism-housing relationship by exploring the existence and extent of spatial spillovers from tourism-intensive cities and towns on housing prices of neighboring areas. A Durbin spatial autoregression panel model is applied on a population of cities and towns from Croatia, one of the small tourism-driven European economies during the 2012–2019 period. Different spatial weight matrices are applied to the model to explore the spatial reach of effects. Our findings, robust to the use of different tourism activity proxies, provide support to the existence of spatial spillover effects. The strongest effects of tourism on housing prices within and between cities come through the conversion of housing stock in rental properties rather than through the increase of private accommodation share in total accommodation capacities. Particularly strong effects are found once full spatial correlation is taken into account.
{"title":"Spatial spillovers of tourism activity on housing prices: The case of Croatia","authors":"Maruška Vizek, N. Stojčić, Josip Mikulić","doi":"10.1177/13548166221106442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166221106442","url":null,"abstract":"The tourism effects on housing prices within cities and regions have been analyzed in the literature, but there is a lack of evidence on the spatial effects of these processes. In areas hit by overtourism, house price hikes have the potential of spillovers to adjacent cities and towns as well as across wider space. Our study widens existing knowledge on the tourism-housing relationship by exploring the existence and extent of spatial spillovers from tourism-intensive cities and towns on housing prices of neighboring areas. A Durbin spatial autoregression panel model is applied on a population of cities and towns from Croatia, one of the small tourism-driven European economies during the 2012–2019 period. Different spatial weight matrices are applied to the model to explore the spatial reach of effects. Our findings, robust to the use of different tourism activity proxies, provide support to the existence of spatial spillover effects. The strongest effects of tourism on housing prices within and between cities come through the conversion of housing stock in rental properties rather than through the increase of private accommodation share in total accommodation capacities. Particularly strong effects are found once full spatial correlation is taken into account.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49545019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-28DOI: 10.1177/13548166231191551
K. Cheung
Many tourism studies leverage the hedonic price model to gauge tourists’ willingness to pay for diverse attributes of short-term rental properties. However, when this estimation is applied to the temporal analysis, it can be biased if variables varying with time, such as term structure effects in short-term rentals, are omitted. This paper introduces a repeat sales Airbnb ADR (average daily rate) index to track the change in quality-adjusted rentals of Airbnb properties over time in Auckland, New Zealand, while factoring in the term structure. The findings confirm that using repeat sales data from Airbnb listings can significantly mitigate the bias linked to time-varying attributes. Results demonstrate that when the term structure is not considered, the ADR calculated by the hedonic method may be overestimated by 0.2% per day of the tenancy term. The inventive Airbnb ADR repeat sales index enables the assessment of Airbnb rental trends, taking into account changes in the term structure of leases. This new index can potentially enhance Airbnb listings by incorporating the effects of lease term structures.
{"title":"Airbnb pricing and term structure: A temporal analysis of omitted variable bias and repeat sales method as remedies","authors":"K. Cheung","doi":"10.1177/13548166231191551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166231191551","url":null,"abstract":"Many tourism studies leverage the hedonic price model to gauge tourists’ willingness to pay for diverse attributes of short-term rental properties. However, when this estimation is applied to the temporal analysis, it can be biased if variables varying with time, such as term structure effects in short-term rentals, are omitted. This paper introduces a repeat sales Airbnb ADR (average daily rate) index to track the change in quality-adjusted rentals of Airbnb properties over time in Auckland, New Zealand, while factoring in the term structure. The findings confirm that using repeat sales data from Airbnb listings can significantly mitigate the bias linked to time-varying attributes. Results demonstrate that when the term structure is not considered, the ADR calculated by the hedonic method may be overestimated by 0.2% per day of the tenancy term. The inventive Airbnb ADR repeat sales index enables the assessment of Airbnb rental trends, taking into account changes in the term structure of leases. This new index can potentially enhance Airbnb listings by incorporating the effects of lease term structures.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44308669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tourism as a nontradable sector affects regional price indexes. However, the effect of tourism on urban housing prices has not been sufficiently studied. This study uses panel data for prefecture-level cities in China to empirically examine the effect of tourism development on urban housing prices. The findings indicate that tourism development can increase urban housing prices, and the effect mainly comes from domestic tourism. This conclusion is not only derived from the instrumental variable method considering endogenous problems but also verified by multiple robust methods including quantile regression. Meanwhile, the study innovatively identifies the mediating role of investment effect, income effect, and public service effect in the impact of tourism on urban housing prices. It further shows the heterogeneity of cities, with more significant effect of tourism on urban housing price in small- and medium-sized cities, noncentral cities, central and western cities, and nontourist cities. This study reveals the commonality and particularity of the impact of tourism development on urban housing price. It not only enriches the research on tourism economics from the perspectives of the relationship between tourism and real estate but also further enriches the relevant conclusions and theoretical mechanism of the impact of tourism on housing prices.
{"title":"Tourism development and urban housing prices: Evidence from China","authors":"Changyao Song, Yijun Liu, Xinjian Li, Jiayi Zhang, Qier Lyv","doi":"10.1177/13548166231186906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166231186906","url":null,"abstract":"Tourism as a nontradable sector affects regional price indexes. However, the effect of tourism on urban housing prices has not been sufficiently studied. This study uses panel data for prefecture-level cities in China to empirically examine the effect of tourism development on urban housing prices. The findings indicate that tourism development can increase urban housing prices, and the effect mainly comes from domestic tourism. This conclusion is not only derived from the instrumental variable method considering endogenous problems but also verified by multiple robust methods including quantile regression. Meanwhile, the study innovatively identifies the mediating role of investment effect, income effect, and public service effect in the impact of tourism on urban housing prices. It further shows the heterogeneity of cities, with more significant effect of tourism on urban housing price in small- and medium-sized cities, noncentral cities, central and western cities, and nontourist cities. This study reveals the commonality and particularity of the impact of tourism development on urban housing price. It not only enriches the research on tourism economics from the perspectives of the relationship between tourism and real estate but also further enriches the relevant conclusions and theoretical mechanism of the impact of tourism on housing prices.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47121554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1177/13548166231185897
B. Tovar, David Boto‐García, J. F. Baños Pino
This study evaluates whether college students change their beliefs about the social, economic, and environmental effects of tourism activities after receiving educational training. In particular, our goal is to examine if economic instruction affects their views about the impacts of cruise tourism development. We conduct an experiment with students majoring in tourism enrolled in a compulsory course on tourism and transport at the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain). We administer a survey before and after the course in three academic years that involve the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. We find that students become more concerned about the negative impacts of cruise tourism, with significant shifts in their agreement with the environmental externalities and price surges associated with cruise tourism. Furthermore, they become more supportive of the setting of a tourism tax per passenger, but agree less with the idea that governments should economically incentivise the arrival of more ships.
{"title":"Meeting externalities: The effects of educational training on support for tourism activities","authors":"B. Tovar, David Boto‐García, J. F. Baños Pino","doi":"10.1177/13548166231185897","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166231185897","url":null,"abstract":"This study evaluates whether college students change their beliefs about the social, economic, and environmental effects of tourism activities after receiving educational training. In particular, our goal is to examine if economic instruction affects their views about the impacts of cruise tourism development. We conduct an experiment with students majoring in tourism enrolled in a compulsory course on tourism and transport at the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain). We administer a survey before and after the course in three academic years that involve the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. We find that students become more concerned about the negative impacts of cruise tourism, with significant shifts in their agreement with the environmental externalities and price surges associated with cruise tourism. Furthermore, they become more supportive of the setting of a tourism tax per passenger, but agree less with the idea that governments should economically incentivise the arrival of more ships.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46742809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-28DOI: 10.1177/13548166231185984
João-Pedro Ferreira, Christa D. Court, E. Basurto-Cedeno, L. Pennington-Gray
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne illness, is increasing in prevalence worldwide, and experts have warned of the imminence of an outbreak in the Southern Gulf Region of the United States (U.S.). Tourist destinations such as Miami and Orlando in Florida are among the most likely places for an outbreak to occur. The decline in attractiveness of a destination due to the outbreak, combined with the restrictive measures implemented to combat the outbreak, have the potential to significantly impact tourism-dependent local economies. This study is unique in that it estimates the potential economic impacts on tourism of an unprecedented outbreak, in this case CHIKV events in the U.S. For this, declines in tourism that followed the 2016 Zika virus outbreak in the Wynwood area of Miami, Florida are assessed to provide insights on the potential size and scope of the shock on tourism resulting from a CHIKV event. Results suggest that a CHIKV outbreak can lead to losses of approximately US$ 30 million in sales and nearly 250 jobs in the Wynwood area alone. Other popular tourist destinations such as Orlando could suffer significant losses of more than 2,500 jobs and US$ 300 million in sales. Estimating the potential losses associated with tourism declines resulting from a CHIKV outbreak provides data and insights to decision-makers that are considering policy measures aimed at preventing, preparing for, or mitigating the impacts of such events. This is particularly relevant as new advances are being made in the development of a CHIKV vaccine.
{"title":"Using the 2016 Zika outbreak to estimate the potential tourism impacts of a Chikungunya event in Florida","authors":"João-Pedro Ferreira, Christa D. Court, E. Basurto-Cedeno, L. Pennington-Gray","doi":"10.1177/13548166231185984","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166231185984","url":null,"abstract":"Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne illness, is increasing in prevalence worldwide, and experts have warned of the imminence of an outbreak in the Southern Gulf Region of the United States (U.S.). Tourist destinations such as Miami and Orlando in Florida are among the most likely places for an outbreak to occur. The decline in attractiveness of a destination due to the outbreak, combined with the restrictive measures implemented to combat the outbreak, have the potential to significantly impact tourism-dependent local economies. This study is unique in that it estimates the potential economic impacts on tourism of an unprecedented outbreak, in this case CHIKV events in the U.S. For this, declines in tourism that followed the 2016 Zika virus outbreak in the Wynwood area of Miami, Florida are assessed to provide insights on the potential size and scope of the shock on tourism resulting from a CHIKV event. Results suggest that a CHIKV outbreak can lead to losses of approximately US$ 30 million in sales and nearly 250 jobs in the Wynwood area alone. Other popular tourist destinations such as Orlando could suffer significant losses of more than 2,500 jobs and US$ 300 million in sales. Estimating the potential losses associated with tourism declines resulting from a CHIKV outbreak provides data and insights to decision-makers that are considering policy measures aimed at preventing, preparing for, or mitigating the impacts of such events. This is particularly relevant as new advances are being made in the development of a CHIKV vaccine.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41764680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-26DOI: 10.1177/13548166231185422
M. Álvarez‐Díaz, J. Chamorro-Rivas, M. González-Gómez, M. S. Otero-Giráldez
This study empirically compares domestic tourists’ behavior before and after the Covid-19 outbreak. Specifically, official data are used to characterize the travel behavior of residents in Spain who traveled through this country for reasons of leisure, recreation, and vacations in 2019 and 2020. A discrete choice model is employed to unravel the main variables that influence the decision of being an inter-regional traveler. The bootstrap p-value method is used to detect significant changes in the marginal effect of the different variables after the Covid-19 outbreak. The estimation results demonstrate the following: (i) domestic inter- and intra-regional travelers have significant differences and, therefore, policy-makers should not design and implement “one size fits all” policies for domestic tourism; (ii) in addition to socio-economic factors, the regional push-pull factors (e.g., weather) and trip-related characteristics (e.g., type of accommodation) are also important in explaining inter-regional travel decisions; (iii) a high number of Covid-19 infections in the region of origin increases the probability of traveling inter-regionally; and (iv) the Covid-19 outbreak has caused an abrupt shift in domestic travelers’ profiles.
{"title":"The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on intra- and inter-regional domestic travel: Evidence from Spain","authors":"M. Álvarez‐Díaz, J. Chamorro-Rivas, M. González-Gómez, M. S. Otero-Giráldez","doi":"10.1177/13548166231185422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166231185422","url":null,"abstract":"This study empirically compares domestic tourists’ behavior before and after the Covid-19 outbreak. Specifically, official data are used to characterize the travel behavior of residents in Spain who traveled through this country for reasons of leisure, recreation, and vacations in 2019 and 2020. A discrete choice model is employed to unravel the main variables that influence the decision of being an inter-regional traveler. The bootstrap p-value method is used to detect significant changes in the marginal effect of the different variables after the Covid-19 outbreak. The estimation results demonstrate the following: (i) domestic inter- and intra-regional travelers have significant differences and, therefore, policy-makers should not design and implement “one size fits all” policies for domestic tourism; (ii) in addition to socio-economic factors, the regional push-pull factors (e.g., weather) and trip-related characteristics (e.g., type of accommodation) are also important in explaining inter-regional travel decisions; (iii) a high number of Covid-19 infections in the region of origin increases the probability of traveling inter-regionally; and (iv) the Covid-19 outbreak has caused an abrupt shift in domestic travelers’ profiles.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43026758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-24DOI: 10.1177/13548166231185899
Esther Vayá, J. R. García, Jordi Suriñach, Ernest Pons
This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and economy in general, at the national and regional levels, through a comparative analysis between the evolution observed in the sector and the evolution that could have happened had the pandemic not occurred. This study was conducted in two stages. First, the total tourist expenditures for 2020 and 2021 were predicted under the assumption that the pandemic had not occurred. In the second stage, the losses in terms of turnover, jobs and the contribution of the tourism sector to the gross domestic product (GDP) that would have occurred without the pandemic were estimated. We applied the input–output method and found that for every €1000 less of tourist spending due to the pandemic, €1883 less were contributed to the GDP, and for every €100,000 less in spending, 2.8 jobs were lost.
{"title":"Effects of the COVID-19 tourism crisis on the Spanish economy","authors":"Esther Vayá, J. R. García, Jordi Suriñach, Ernest Pons","doi":"10.1177/13548166231185899","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166231185899","url":null,"abstract":"This study addresses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish tourism sector and economy in general, at the national and regional levels, through a comparative analysis between the evolution observed in the sector and the evolution that could have happened had the pandemic not occurred. This study was conducted in two stages. First, the total tourist expenditures for 2020 and 2021 were predicted under the assumption that the pandemic had not occurred. In the second stage, the losses in terms of turnover, jobs and the contribution of the tourism sector to the gross domestic product (GDP) that would have occurred without the pandemic were estimated. We applied the input–output method and found that for every €1000 less of tourist spending due to the pandemic, €1883 less were contributed to the GDP, and for every €100,000 less in spending, 2.8 jobs were lost.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46449412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-23DOI: 10.1177/13548166231181261
Neslihan Kahyalar, N. Seetaram, Sami Fethi
This paper is one of the first which provides an in-depth quantitative analysis of how the development of the tourism industry impacts on the size of the shadow economy of a specific destination. The paper employs time-series techniques and annual data from 1960 to 2018 from Turkey. First, the size of the shadow economy is estimated using the electricity consumption method. The estimates are then used to assess the effect of tourism development on the size of the shadow economy. The findings show that there is a negative relationship between the two. A 1% increase in international tourism arrivals leads to a 0.21% and 0.316% fall in the size of the shadow economy in the short-run and long-run respectively. It implies that as the tourism sector develops, it becomes instrumental in modernising the Turkish economy leading to the movement of resources from the shadow economy to the formal sector. In the long-run the effect of the tourism industry in reducing the size of the shadow economy surpasses that of the financial sector of Turkey.
{"title":"Tourism and the shadow economy: Long-run and short-run implications for resource allocation","authors":"Neslihan Kahyalar, N. Seetaram, Sami Fethi","doi":"10.1177/13548166231181261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166231181261","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is one of the first which provides an in-depth quantitative analysis of how the development of the tourism industry impacts on the size of the shadow economy of a specific destination. The paper employs time-series techniques and annual data from 1960 to 2018 from Turkey. First, the size of the shadow economy is estimated using the electricity consumption method. The estimates are then used to assess the effect of tourism development on the size of the shadow economy. The findings show that there is a negative relationship between the two. A 1% increase in international tourism arrivals leads to a 0.21% and 0.316% fall in the size of the shadow economy in the short-run and long-run respectively. It implies that as the tourism sector develops, it becomes instrumental in modernising the Turkish economy leading to the movement of resources from the shadow economy to the formal sector. In the long-run the effect of the tourism industry in reducing the size of the shadow economy surpasses that of the financial sector of Turkey.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47086907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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