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EXPLORING THE DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN 探索经济增长的决定因素:来自巴基斯坦的证据
Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.52587/jems020203
Rozina Waheed, Farrah David
This study aims to analyze the impact of different deriving forces like trade balance, capital, inflation rate, exchange rate and government fiscal measures on economic growth of Pakistan during the period 1977 to 2019. The empirical results are tested through ARDL co-integration method which indicates that capital, inflation rate, exchange rate and tax revenues have significant long term and short term relationship with economic growth.
本研究旨在分析1977年至2019年期间贸易平衡、资本、通货膨胀率、汇率和政府财政措施等不同派生力量对巴基斯坦经济增长的影响。通过ARDL协整方法对实证结果进行检验,结果表明资本、通货膨胀率、汇率和税收与经济增长的长期和短期关系显著。
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引用次数: 1
The Hypotheses Testing Method for Evaluation of Startup Projects 创业项目评估的假设检验方法
Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.30560/jems.v4n4p47
Dmytro Shestakov
This paper suggests new perspective to evaluating innovation projects and understanding the nature of startup risks. Author consider five principal hypotheses that underlie every innovative project that comprise a bunch of respective assumptions to manage startup risks in a proactive manner. Suggested approach spots the light on a project’s uncertainties and risks, embedded investment and managerial options, and enables more comprehensive and accurate evaluation of innovation. The Hypotheses Testing Method enables to estimate risks and attractiveness of a startup project in a clear and fast manner. It replaces unclear traditional techniques like NPV and DCF, avoiding heavy cash flow modelling.
本文为评估创新项目和理解创业风险的本质提供了新的视角。作者考虑了五个主要假设,这些假设构成了每个创新项目的基础,这些项目包括一堆各自的假设,以积极主动的方式管理启动风险。建议的方法突出了项目的不确定性和风险,嵌入式投资和管理选项,并能够更全面和准确地评估创新。假设检验方法能够清晰、快速地评估创业项目的风险和吸引力。它取代了NPV和DCF等不明确的传统技术,避免了沉重的现金流模型。
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引用次数: 0
Cultural Health Moments: A Search Analysis During Times of Heightened Awareness to Identify Potential Interception Points with Digital Health Consumers 文化健康时刻:在提高意识时期的搜索分析,以识别数字健康消费者的潜在拦截点
Pub Date : 2021-12-04 DOI: 10.30560/jems.v4n4p35
Gulhan Bizel, Cecil Parmar, Kusum Singh, Supriya Teegala, Vijay Kumar Reddy Voddi
Year after year whenever someone who is considered “high profile” discovers that they have some sort of sickness or if they pass away due to a sickness, there seems to be a heightened interest in that person. At the same time however, there is a heightened awareness of the type of sickness that the person had. Finding the moments in which there is a heightened sense of awareness towards a specific topic can be something of high value to various agencies and organizations. The objective of this study was to explore the moments in which people start to do some initial search queries when there is a high-profile health moment. Once it is understood when this moment occurs, further research can be done to understand where the search behavior shifts to searches of awareness, signs, symptoms, and introspection over time.
年复一年,每当一个被认为“高调”的人发现自己患有某种疾病或因疾病而去世时,人们对这个人的兴趣似乎就会增加。然而,与此同时,人们对这个人所患疾病的类型有了更高的认识。找到对某一特定主题的意识提高的时刻,对各种机构和组织来说可能具有很高的价值。这项研究的目的是探索当人们有一个引人注目的健康时刻时,人们开始做一些最初的搜索查询的时刻。一旦了解了这一时刻发生的时间,就可以进行进一步的研究,以了解随着时间的推移,搜索行为在哪里转变为对意识、迹象、症状和内省的搜索。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Tax Revenue in Sierra Leone: Application of the ARDL Framework 塞拉利昂税收的决定因素:ARDL框架的应用
Pub Date : 2021-12-02 DOI: 10.30560/jems.v4n4p25
Abu Bakarr Tarawalie, Sia Hemore
The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of tax revenue in Sierra Leone, over the period 1990Q1 to 2020Q1, within the context of the ARDL estimation procedure. The result from the ARDL Bound test for cointegration suggests that a long-run relationship exists among the variables. The long run analysis indicates that real GDP (Y), openness (Op) and official development assistance (ODA) are the main determinants of tax revenue (TR) in Sierra Leone, with positive coefficients. This result is in tandem with the short run findings, which establishes a positive relationship between tax revenue and its regressors- real GDP and openness. However, the short run result also suggests that inflation has a negative impact on tax revenue. The findings confirm that any short-run disequilibrium to the long-run can be corrected at the 11 percent speed of adjustment quarterly, albeit at a low speed of adjustment. The diagnostic result shows that approximately 75 percent of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the regressors based on the value of the R-squared. It also confirms that the model is free of serial correlation and heteroscedasticity, whilst the CUSUM test indicates stability of the model coefficients. The policy implication is for government to pursue policies that will enhance economic growth, through investment in growth enhancing sectors including agriculture, health, education, energy and infrastructure development; and ensure a politically stable environment as a recipe for private sector investment.
本文的目的是在ARDL估计程序的背景下,研究塞拉利昂1990年第一季度至2020年第一季度税收收入的决定因素。协整的ARDL Bound检验结果表明,变量之间存在长期的关系。长期分析表明,实际GDP (Y)、开放程度(Op)和官方发展援助(ODA)是塞拉利昂税收收入(TR)的主要决定因素,且具有正系数。这一结果与短期研究结果一致,后者在税收与其回归指标——实际GDP和开放度之间建立了正相关关系。然而,短期结果也表明,通货膨胀对税收有负面影响。研究结果证实,任何短期到长期的不平衡都可以以11%的季度调整速度得到纠正,尽管调整速度很慢。诊断结果表明,因变量中大约75%的变化是由基于r平方值的回归量解释的。这也证实了模型不存在序列相关和异方差,而CUSUM检验表明模型系数具有稳定性。其政策含义是,政府应推行促进经济增长的政策,对促进增长的部门进行投资,包括农业、卫生、教育、能源和基础设施发展;确保一个政治稳定的环境,作为私人部门投资的良方。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Income Convergence in China - A Spatial Panel Data Analysis 外商直接投资对中国收入趋同的影响——一个空间面板数据分析
Pub Date : 2021-11-24 DOI: 10.30560/jems.v4n4p1
Di Zhu, Yefei Li, Ejimofor Bruno Chiedozi, Hui Pan
After taking into account the spatial dependence effects in the panel data consisting of all 31 provinces, direct-controlled municipalities, and autonomous regions in China between the years 1998 and 2017, it found significant spatial autocorrelation effects in both traditional absolute and conditional β income convergence models. At the national level, using the spatial econometric models (Spatial Error Model for absolute convergence and Spatial Durbin Model for conditional convergence), the analysis shows that in the past 19 years from 1999 to 2017, there is no absolute β income convergence. However, there is conditional β income convergence after controlling for all growth factors, while the positive effect of fixed asset investment on regional economic growth is significant, and the effect of population growth is significantly negative. The other growth factors such as FDI inflow, export, and higher education enrollment were surprisingly found no statistically significant effects on regional economic growth. From regional level (Spatial Durbin Model and Spatial Lag Model), there is no conditional β income convergence within each four economic regions. Nonetheless, the northeast region showed an income divergence trend, where only the fixed asset investment is positively significant. This study results imply that China should continue to improve fixed asset investment and control population growth to stimulate regional economic growth and income convergence.
在考虑中国所有31个省(直辖市、自治区)1998 - 2017年面板数据的空间依赖效应后,发现传统的绝对和条件β收入收敛模型都具有显著的空间自相关效应。在国家层面,利用空间计量模型(绝对收敛的空间误差模型和条件收敛的空间德宾模型)分析表明,1999 - 2017年的19年间,不存在绝对的β收入收敛。但在控制了所有增长因素后,存在条件β收入收敛,而固定资产投资对区域经济增长的正向作用显著,人口增长的作用显著负向。令人惊讶的是,其他增长因素如FDI流入、出口和高等教育入学率对区域经济增长没有显著的统计影响。从区域层面(空间德宾模型和空间滞后模型)来看,四个经济区域内不存在条件β收入趋同。东北地区则呈现收入分化趋势,只有固定资产投资正向显著。研究结果表明,中国应继续提高固定资产投资,控制人口增长,以刺激区域经济增长和收入趋同。
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引用次数: 0
Situational Approach of Leadership - Case Study at "Kujtesa" Company 情境式领导方法——以“库伊特萨”公司为例
Pub Date : 2021-10-11 DOI: 10.30560/jems.v4n3p26
Adelina Arifi, Musa Krasniqi, Berim Ramosaj
In the contemporary time in which we live, the approach of leaders plays an important role in implementing the strategy of the “Kujtesa” company. The purpose of this research is to show the application of leadership style to their subordinates. The methodology used in the study is a combination of quantitative and qualitative data. The results of the research were processed with the data of 100 employees and managers of the “Kujtesa” company. The data were processed using the statistical analysis of SPSS program. This research includes the analysis of key factors of leaders' style with their subordinates such as: human resource management, work structure, management readiness to face new challenges and new situations. This study shows a clear picture of the functioning of leaders' approaches to subordinates.
在我们生活的当代,领导者的方法对“Kujtesa”公司战略的实施起着重要的作用。本研究的目的是展示领导风格对其下属的应用。研究中使用的方法是定量和定性数据的结合。研究结果采用“Kujtesa”公司100名员工和管理人员的数据进行处理。数据采用SPSS软件进行统计分析。本研究包括分析影响领导者对下属风格的关键因素,如:人力资源管理、工作结构、面对新挑战和新形势的管理准备。这项研究清楚地展示了领导者对待下属的方式的作用。
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引用次数: 0
THE IMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION ON EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES: PANEL EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 贸易自由化对就业和工资的影响:来自发展中国家的小组证据
Pub Date : 2021-09-12 DOI: 10.52587/jems020201
Najia Mughal, G. Shabbir, shabib haider syed
Since the 1990s, developing countries shifted their trade policy from inward-oriented strategy to outward-oriented strategy because of the conditions imposed by international lending institutions for granting loans to developing countries. The current study aims to investigate the impact of trade liberalization on employment and wages within the 30 developing countries over the period 2000 to 2019. To investigate empirical connections between trade, employment and wages, reduced form equations of labor demand and wages have been devised. The study has applied Generalized Method of Moments estimation techniques to estimate labor demand and wage equations to tackle the problem of endogeneity. The empirical findings of the study predict that trade liberalization has significant adverse effect on both labor demand and wages. However, the magnitude of the influence of trade on both one is small. Similarly, wages, employment level, output and real exchange rate are affecting employment and wages significantly. While ILO ratifications are significant only when KOF trade globalization is used as measure of liberalization, and time trend is significant only when weighted tariff rate is used as a measure of liberalization. To craft a multilateral and effective policy development, both real output and workers’ skill should be the focus of economic managers of the developing economies to reap the benefits of trade liberalization.
20世纪90年代以来,由于国际贷款机构向发展中国家提供贷款的条件,发展中国家的贸易政策从内向战略转向外向战略。本研究旨在调查2000年至2019年期间30个发展中国家贸易自由化对就业和工资的影响。为了研究贸易、就业和工资之间的实证联系,我们设计了简化形式的劳动需求和工资方程。本研究运用广义矩量估计技术来估计劳动力需求和工资方程,以解决内生性问题。研究的实证结果预测,贸易自由化对劳动力需求和工资都有显著的不利影响。然而,贸易对两者的影响程度都很小。同样,工资、就业水平、产出和实际汇率也显著影响着就业和工资。国际劳工组织的批准只有在以KOF贸易全球化作为自由化的衡量标准时才有意义,而时间趋势只有在以加权关税率作为自由化的衡量标准时才有意义。为了制定多边和有效的政策,发展中经济体的经济管理人员应将实际产出和工人技能作为重点,以获得贸易自由化的好处。
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引用次数: 0
The Development of Sino Indian Trade from the Perspective of “The Belt and Road Initiative” 从“一带一路”看中印贸易的发展
Pub Date : 2021-09-06 DOI: 10.30560/jems.v4n3p7
Chen Zilong
Since ancient times, the two ancient civilizations of China and India have had a long history of trade exchanges, and such trade exchanges have left an important mark in the history of Sino-India relations. Chronologically,this article takes the Sino-Indian trade exchanges as a research perspective to outline two thousand years of trade history between two countries. From the Sino-Indian Business Road that began in the Qin Dynasty and Han Dynasty to the origin of the Silk Road on which Zhang Qian went to the Western Regions as an envoy, explored the Sino-India-Tibet Road and Maritime Silk Road trade; analyzed the opium trade between China, Britain and India in modern times. At the same time, it uses the founding of People’s Republic of China, the Sino-Indian War, the Belt and Road Initiative and the important events of the global epidemic as nodes to describe the development of Sino-Indian trade. In the long history, this kind of rich trade history also shows that China and India are more likely and should establish a better and more extensive trade cooperation relationship, and learn to effectively deal with the turmoil. This will provide reference for operating the trade activities between the two countries.
中印两大文明古国自古以来就有着悠久的贸易往来历史,这种贸易往来在中印关系史上留下了重要的印记。本文以中印贸易往来为研究视角,按时间顺序勾勒出两国两千年的贸易历史。从秦汉时期开始的中印商路,到张骞出使西域,探索中印藏路和海上丝绸之路贸易的丝绸之路起源;分析了近代中国、英国和印度之间的鸦片贸易。同时,以中华人民共和国成立、中印战争、“一带一路”倡议、全球疫情等重大事件为节点,描述中印贸易的发展历程。在漫长的历史长河中,这种丰富的贸易历史也表明,中印两国更有可能也更应该建立更好、更广泛的贸易合作关系,并学会有效应对动荡。这将为两国贸易活动的开展提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
International Evidence on Purchasing Power Parity: A Study of High and Low Inflation Countries 购买力平价的国际证据:对高通胀和低通胀国家的研究
Pub Date : 2021-07-31 DOI: 10.30560/jems.v4n3p1
M. Monadjemi, J. Lodewijks
The purpose of this article is to select a sample of low inflation countries and high inflation countries and examine the long run validity of the relative Purchasing Power Parity doctrine. We explore the notion that countries with historically low inflation experience strong and stable currency and those with a continuous high inflation face weak and depreciating currencies. After a review of the literature, a theoretical model is developed for the relationship between inflation and exchange rate changes. This is followed by some graphical annual time series and empirical results for selected countries. We find our hypothesis is supported for high inflation countries. We then explore productivity differences and their impact on real exchange rates.
本文的目的是选择低通货膨胀国家和高通货膨胀国家的样本,并检验相对购买力平价理论的长期有效性。我们探讨的概念是,历史上低通胀的国家经历了强劲和稳定的货币,而那些持续高通胀的国家面临疲软和贬值的货币。在回顾了文献之后,本文建立了通货膨胀与汇率变化关系的理论模型。随后是一些图表年度时间序列和选定国家的实证结果。我们发现,我们的假设在高通胀国家得到了支持。然后探讨生产率差异及其对实际汇率的影响。
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引用次数: 3
The Role of Banking Institutional Services on the Sustainable growth of SMEs in Cameroon 银行机构服务在喀麦隆中小企业可持续增长中的作用
Pub Date : 2021-05-26 DOI: 10.30560/JEMS.V4N2P1
Frank Engwa Engwa, Ivan Mboambogoh Yakum, S. T. Mukah
Banking institutions have been very instrumental to the growth of Small and Medium Sized enterprises in many developed economies, and they have been considered as one of the principal driving forces for economic development. The case has not been the same for Cameroon as owner managers of these SMEs have been complaining of the limited presence of banking institutions in solving their problems. Mindful of the fact that Cameroon has a growth vision to become an emerging economy by 2035, the country had to take giant steps to boast the growth of SME in the country. Some of these steps were the introduction of the small business law in 2010. This was all in a drive to ensure that SME play a vital role to the GDP growth, reduce unemployment, alleviate poverty and act as an engine for the country’s emergence growth drive. It is therefore in this light that a study was carried out on the role of banking institutional services on the sustainable growth of SME in Cameroon. A logistic regression model was adopted to examine the impact of banking institutions on the growth of SMEs in Cameroon. The data used in the study was extracted from the 2016 Cameroon Enterprise Survey which was collected from 361 enterprises by the National Institute of Statistics in the country. From the empirical results, it was discovered that 68.4% of the enterprises were growing as opposed to the 31.6%. Despite the high growth rate of these SME bank loans were affecting the growth of SME negatively while MFI loans, electronic banking services, internal funds and research and development were positively contributing to the growth of SME in the country. Thus, we concluded the study by emphasisng the implementation of relationship lending which will contribute positively to the growth of SMEs and more so fiscal policies should be ameliorated to boast the growth of startups businesses.
在许多发达经济体中,银行机构对中小企业的成长起着非常重要的作用,它们被认为是经济发展的主要推动力之一。喀麦隆的情况就不一样了,这些中小企业的业主经理一直在抱怨银行机构在解决他们的问题方面存在有限。考虑到到2035年成为新兴经济体的增长愿景,喀麦隆必须采取巨大措施来夸耀该国中小企业的增长。其中一些措施是在2010年引入《小企业法》。这一切都是为了确保中小企业对国内生产总值增长、减少失业、减轻贫困、成为国家新兴增长动力的引擎发挥重要作用。因此,正是在这种情况下,对银行机构服务对喀麦隆中小企业可持续增长的作用进行了研究。采用逻辑回归模型来检验银行机构对喀麦隆中小企业成长的影响。研究中使用的数据摘自2016年喀麦隆企业调查,该调查是由该国国家统计局从361家企业中收集的。从实证结果来看,成长型企业占68.4%,而成长型企业占31.6%。尽管这些中小企业银行贷款的高增长率对中小企业的增长产生了负面影响,但小额信贷机构贷款、电子银行服务、内部资金和研发对该国中小企业的增长起到了积极作用。因此,我们通过强调关系贷款的实施将对中小企业的成长做出积极贡献来总结研究,更重要的是,应该改善财政政策以促进创业企业的成长。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Economics and Management Sciences
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