Pub Date : 2025-10-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102071
Juan Felipe Parra-Rodas , Yris Olaya , Erik R. Larsen , Santiago Arango-Aramburo
Colombia's Just Energy Transition faces significant hurdles, including renewable energy deployment delays, social conflicts, economic constraints, and escalating electricity demand. During periods of low hydropower availability, coal remains a critical energy source, complicating efforts to phase it out. This study employs a system dynamics model to evaluate three distinct policies—phased coal reduction, complete phase-out, and a higher emissions tax—and their effectiveness under various future scenarios. Our results reveal that external factors such as fuel prices, demand shifts, and hydrological conditions significantly influence the feasibility of these policies. While a gradual transition may not drastically alter the long-term trajectory, it can effectively curb future coal dependence. The findings underscore that effective planning is crucial for mitigating potential price spikes and adverse social impacts. This research offers policymakers actionable strategies to navigate Colombia's complex energy transition towards a secure, sustainable, and affordable electricity generation mix.
{"title":"Simulation-based policy analysis to mitigate Colombia's coal dependency for electricity generation","authors":"Juan Felipe Parra-Rodas , Yris Olaya , Erik R. Larsen , Santiago Arango-Aramburo","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102071","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102071","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Colombia's Just Energy Transition faces significant hurdles, including renewable energy deployment delays, social conflicts, economic constraints, and escalating electricity demand. During periods of low hydropower availability, coal remains a critical energy source, complicating efforts to phase it out. This study employs a system dynamics model to evaluate three distinct policies—phased coal reduction, complete phase-out, and a higher emissions tax—and their effectiveness under various future scenarios. Our results reveal that external factors such as fuel prices, demand shifts, and hydrological conditions significantly influence the feasibility of these policies. While a gradual transition may not drastically alter the long-term trajectory, it can effectively curb future coal dependence. The findings underscore that effective planning is crucial for mitigating potential price spikes and adverse social impacts. This research offers policymakers actionable strategies to navigate Colombia's complex energy transition towards a secure, sustainable, and affordable electricity generation mix.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102071"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102068
Nurcan Kilinc-Ata , Liliana Proskuryakova
Traditional bioenergy, used in many African nations, is not recognized as a renewable or sustainable energy source. Some countries on the continent are officially leading the way in achieving SDG7, thanks to this type of energy. As of 2020, some African nations had a relatively high proportion of renewable energy (RE) in their primary energy supply, contributing to their enhanced energy self-sufficiency. In this study, 15 low- and lower-middle-income African countries are selected, and the elements that statistically significantly affect high shares of RE supply from 2000 to 2022 are scrutinized. For this purpose, second-generation panel data methods, CS-ARDL, are used to assess the effects of sustainability, economic growth, and energy equity indicators on the share of renewables in primary energy supply. The study shows that in the short term, RE supply is significantly but adversely affected by the total primary energy use. Energy intensity and access to renewable fuels contribute to an increased supply of RE. Moreover, RE supply experiences a strong and favourable influence from both economic expansion and lower interest rates. This study contributes to the body of knowledge on renewable-based energy systems in African countries by underlining the impact of interest rates and other factors that influence RE share in the entire primary energy supply, going beyond the power sector. The findings could serve as an evidence base for decision-makers in drafting evidence-based investment, sustainable development, and development assistance strategies.
{"title":"New energy-rich or still energy-poor? Evidence from selected African countries","authors":"Nurcan Kilinc-Ata , Liliana Proskuryakova","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102068","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102068","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traditional bioenergy, used in many African nations, is not recognized as a renewable or sustainable energy source. Some countries on the continent are officially leading the way in achieving SDG7, thanks to this type of energy. As of 2020, some African nations had a relatively high proportion of renewable energy (RE) in their primary energy supply, contributing to their enhanced energy self-sufficiency. In this study, 15 low- and lower-middle-income African countries are selected, and the elements that statistically significantly affect high shares of RE supply from 2000 to 2022 are scrutinized. For this purpose, second-generation panel data methods, CS-ARDL, are used to assess the effects of sustainability, economic growth, and energy equity indicators on the share of renewables in primary energy supply. The study shows that in the short term, RE supply is significantly but adversely affected by the total primary energy use. Energy intensity and access to renewable fuels contribute to an increased supply of RE. Moreover, RE supply experiences a strong and favourable influence from both economic expansion and lower interest rates. This study contributes to the body of knowledge on renewable-based energy systems in African countries by underlining the impact of interest rates and other factors that influence RE share in the entire primary energy supply, going beyond the power sector. The findings could serve as an evidence base for decision-makers in drafting evidence-based investment, sustainable development, and development assistance strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102068"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-30DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102063
Li Lanlan , He Minzheng , Yang Ranran , Luo Xuan
Mandatory Domestic Waste Classification (MDWC) is an effective strategy for alleviating the urban waste crisis. This paper integrates public online petition text data and urban panel data, employing the synthetic control method to evaluate the impact of MDWC policy on government response to Public Complaints about Solid Waste Sorting (PCSWS) from the perspective of policy pressure. By analyzing data from the Mayor's Message Boards of 11 Chinese cities between 2015 and 2022, the research results indicate that the MDWC policy significantly improved both the speed and quality of government responses to PCSWS. However, the sustainability of these effects has diminished over time. Assessing the impact of the MDWC policy on government responses to PCSWS not only enhances government responsiveness but also promotes positive interaction between the government and the public. Furthermore, enhancing governmental environmental regulation and governance capacity can play a positive role. Therefore, the government should maintain policy oversight following the policy implementation by continuously mobilizing various resources and regulatory measures to ensure policy sustainability and stability. This paper provides an empirical basis for improving the long-term regulatory mechanism of public waste sorting. It holds a significant reference value for promoting the scientific evaluation of government response capabilities in urban environmental governance.
{"title":"Governmental response to public complaints about solid waste sorting in China: Evidence from quasi-natural experiments","authors":"Li Lanlan , He Minzheng , Yang Ranran , Luo Xuan","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102063","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102063","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mandatory Domestic Waste Classification (MDWC) is an effective strategy for alleviating the urban waste crisis. This paper integrates public online petition text data and urban panel data, employing the synthetic control method to evaluate the impact of MDWC policy on government response to Public Complaints about Solid Waste Sorting (PCSWS) from the perspective of policy pressure. By analyzing data from the Mayor's Message Boards of 11 Chinese cities between 2015 and 2022, the research results indicate that the MDWC policy significantly improved both the speed and quality of government responses to PCSWS. However, the sustainability of these effects has diminished over time. Assessing the impact of the MDWC policy on government responses to PCSWS not only enhances government responsiveness but also promotes positive interaction between the government and the public. Furthermore, enhancing governmental environmental regulation and governance capacity can play a positive role. Therefore, the government should maintain policy oversight following the policy implementation by continuously mobilizing various resources and regulatory measures to ensure policy sustainability and stability. This paper provides an empirical basis for improving the long-term regulatory mechanism of public waste sorting. It holds a significant reference value for promoting the scientific evaluation of government response capabilities in urban environmental governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102063"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102064
Simon Poltak Hamonangan Hutabarat
Amid Indonesia's push to expand renewable energy, this study evaluates the long-term impact of the depletion premium—a revenue-neutral policy that reallocates 25 % of fossil fuel tax revenue to support solar photovoltaic (PV) development—using 15 years of national data. An optimization model, calibrated with World Bank (2017) parameters, compares two strategies: raising subsidies and improving PV efficiency. Results indicate that a 5 % subsidy increase enhances capital efficiency and solar generation but dampens new investment. By contrast, a 5 % improvement in PV efficiency delivers greater overall economic returns. The findings suggest that combining targeted early subsidies with efficiency improvements can accelerate solar expansion, reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and advance Indonesia's renewable energy goals while maintaining fiscal sustainability.
{"title":"Subsidizing solar energy in Indonesia: Evaluating the fossil fuel depletion premium as a revenue-neutral policy tool","authors":"Simon Poltak Hamonangan Hutabarat","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102064","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid Indonesia's push to expand renewable energy, this study evaluates the long-term impact of the depletion premium—a revenue-neutral policy that reallocates 25 % of fossil fuel tax revenue to support solar photovoltaic (PV) development—using 15 years of national data. An optimization model, calibrated with World Bank (2017) parameters, compares two strategies: raising subsidies and improving PV efficiency. Results indicate that a 5 % subsidy increase enhances capital efficiency and solar generation but dampens new investment. By contrast, a 5 % improvement in PV efficiency delivers greater overall economic returns. The findings suggest that combining targeted early subsidies with efficiency improvements can accelerate solar expansion, reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and advance Indonesia's renewable energy goals while maintaining fiscal sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102064"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102065
Christophe Defeuilley
The potential benefits of retail electricity market liberalization have been the subject of intense debate. Taking stock of both the academic work and the current state of retail markets in Europe, this article seeks to assess whether opening competition has led to an increase in consumer welfare. We conclude that the benefits of retail competition remain unclear and controversial while the costs are substantial. In light of these findings and given the growing importance of decarbonization and inequality issues, policy-driven changes should be considered to build stable regulatory frameworks that prioritize consumer protection over unfettered competition.
{"title":"Retail electricity markets in Europe: Taking stock, looking ahead","authors":"Christophe Defeuilley","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102065","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102065","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The potential benefits of retail electricity market liberalization have been the subject of intense debate. Taking stock of both the academic work and the current state of retail markets in Europe, this article seeks to assess whether opening competition has led to an increase in consumer welfare. We conclude that the benefits of retail competition remain unclear and controversial while the costs are substantial. In light of these findings and given the growing importance of decarbonization and inequality issues, policy-driven changes should be considered to build stable regulatory frameworks that prioritize consumer protection over unfettered competition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102065"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper explores the presence of an environmental, social, and governance (ESG) premium for firms operating in the energy, utilities, and basic materials sectors. Specifically, we examine the influence of ESG performance on firms’ cost of capital in both debt and equity markets. We apply a measure of the ex ante implied cost of equity and the cost of debt to a global sample of over 24,000 firm-year observations spanning the period from 2010 to 2021. We also investigate the financial impact of each component of the aggregated ESG score. We employ a pooled ordinary least squares with robust standard errors, controlling for firm-specific and macroeconomic factors.
Contrary to the prevailing view in recent literature, our results indicate no evidence supporting an ESG premium for energy, utilities, and basic materials firms. However, we find an inverse relationship between environmental performance and the cost of capital. This finding supports the existence of a “green premium,” which can be attributed to green investor preferences and sustainable operations, reducing regulatory and other environmental risks. In contrast, the social score is positively related to the cost of debt, suggesting that lenders view investments in social efforts as risk-enhancing or a waste of resources. We argue that the aggregated ESG score is too broad, but its components adequately capture investors’ risk-return preferences. Firms can benefit from reduced financing costs by improving their environmental efforts, although social investments may result in higher borrowing costs.
{"title":"Impact of ESG performance on the cost of capital in the energy, utilities, and basic materials sectors","authors":"Sindre Wilberg , Vibeke Kjellevoll , Franziska Holz , Anne Neumann","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the presence of an environmental, social, and governance (ESG) premium for firms operating in the energy, utilities, and basic materials sectors. Specifically, we examine the influence of ESG performance on firms’ cost of capital in both debt and equity markets. We apply a measure of the ex ante implied cost of equity and the cost of debt to a global sample of over 24,000 firm-year observations spanning the period from 2010 to 2021. We also investigate the financial impact of each component of the aggregated ESG score. We employ a pooled ordinary least squares with robust standard errors, controlling for firm-specific and macroeconomic factors.</div><div>Contrary to the prevailing view in recent literature, our results indicate no evidence supporting an ESG premium for energy, utilities, and basic materials firms. However, we find an inverse relationship between environmental performance and the cost of capital. This finding supports the existence of a “green premium,” which can be attributed to green investor preferences and sustainable operations, reducing regulatory and other environmental risks. In contrast, the social score is positively related to the cost of debt, suggesting that lenders view investments in social efforts as risk-enhancing or a waste of resources. We argue that the aggregated ESG score is too broad, but its components adequately capture investors’ risk-return preferences. Firms can benefit from reduced financing costs by improving their environmental efforts, although social investments may result in higher borrowing costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102016"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study develops a techno-economic-environmental system dynamics model to evaluate Iran's electricity sector through 2040. The model integrates renewable expansion, econometric demand forecasting, climate change feedbacks, and carbon capture policies to assess generation, demand, emissions, and economic outcomes. Under current policy, fossil fuel dependency remains 94 % and CO2 emissions reach 220.11 Mt. Moderate renewable acceleration doubles renewable generation to 63,785 GWh/year, restores export income to 910.2 M USD, and cuts fossil fuel use by 8.7 %. Carbon capture achieves a 36 % emission reduction, bringing CO2 below 2020 levels. Results provide a roadmap for balancing energy security, competitiveness, and climate mitigation.
{"title":"Transitioning Iran's electricity sector: A system dynamics analysis of renewable energy acceleration and carbon capture strategies to 2040","authors":"Mohammad-Mahdi Pazuki , Mohsen Salimi , Nasser Safaie , Majid Amidpour","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102062","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102062","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study develops a techno-economic-environmental system dynamics model to evaluate Iran's electricity sector through 2040. The model integrates renewable expansion, econometric demand forecasting, climate change feedbacks, and carbon capture policies to assess generation, demand, emissions, and economic outcomes. Under current policy, fossil fuel dependency remains 94 % and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions reach 220.11 Mt. Moderate renewable acceleration doubles renewable generation to 63,785 GWh/year, restores export income to 910.2 M USD, and cuts fossil fuel use by 8.7 %. Carbon capture achieves a 36 % emission reduction, bringing CO<sub>2</sub> below 2020 levels. Results provide a roadmap for balancing energy security, competitiveness, and climate mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102062"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102041
Rodrigo A. Cáceres González , Eduardo Zúñiga Leyton
This article develops a game-theoretic model to analyze the strategic behavior of public and private desalination firms, motivated by the Chilean context. In a duopoly setting, we examine how these firms allocate water between residential and mining sectors, under government influence through subsidies and production requirements. The analysis explores how the share of public production and differences in plant efficiency affect equilibrium outcomes. Results show that the substantial volumetric difference between residential and mining demand is a key driver of equilibrium strategic behavior. The model is calibrated using real data from the Coquimbo region in Chile.
{"title":"A game-theoretic framework to evaluate the strategic interaction of public and private desalination firms: A case study from Chile","authors":"Rodrigo A. Cáceres González , Eduardo Zúñiga Leyton","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article develops a game-theoretic model to analyze the strategic behavior of public and private desalination firms, motivated by the Chilean context. In a duopoly setting, we examine how these firms allocate water between residential and mining sectors, under government influence through subsidies and production requirements. The analysis explores how the share of public production and differences in plant efficiency affect equilibrium outcomes. Results show that the substantial volumetric difference between residential and mining demand is a key driver of equilibrium strategic behavior. The model is calibrated using real data from the Coquimbo region in Chile.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102041"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102059
Peter Heller , Tim Schittekatte , Roberto Barrella , Paolo Mastropietro , Carlos Batlle
As climate change accelerates and recent health, energy, and inflation crises exacerbate broader inequality trends, ensuring adequate and affordable access to energy services is becoming increasingly important. In this paper, we conduct an in-depth review of energy poverty policy and program design in Europe and the United States. We classify and evaluate different approaches according to four categories of policy choices: assistance, targeting, funding, and governance. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the approaches adopted in both contexts, extract key lessons, and provide recommendations to improve the effectiveness of energy assistance policies. The taxonomy presented here is not intended as a tool for evaluating program effectiveness. Instead, it is meant to help us understand how specific design decisions may impact program outcomes.
{"title":"European and US approaches to energy poverty: Classifying and evaluating design strategies","authors":"Peter Heller , Tim Schittekatte , Roberto Barrella , Paolo Mastropietro , Carlos Batlle","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102059","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102059","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As climate change accelerates and recent health, energy, and inflation crises exacerbate broader inequality trends, ensuring adequate and affordable access to energy services is becoming increasingly important. In this paper, we conduct an in-depth review of energy poverty policy and program design in Europe and the United States. We classify and evaluate different approaches according to four categories of policy choices: assistance, targeting, funding, and governance. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the approaches adopted in both contexts, extract key lessons, and provide recommendations to improve the effectiveness of energy assistance policies. The taxonomy presented here is not intended as a tool for evaluating program effectiveness. Instead, it is meant to help us understand how specific design decisions may impact program outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102059"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102052
Carlos Motta Nunes , Rui Cunha Marques
Since the 2020 reform of Brazil’s water supply and sanitation (WSS) sector, private provision of these services has expanded sharply. Major cities such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are now served by private operators, primarily following the privatization of their state-owned companies, either by share sale or through concession contracts. Brazil is thus one of the most prominent markets for private WSS provision in the world. The objective of this study is to investigate the main factors associated with WSS privatization in Brazil, focusing on utility-level variables. While previous research has emphasized municipal-level factors such as fiscal health, economic efficiency, and party ideology, utility-level effects remain understudied. Drawing from the literature on privatization motivations, we hypothesize that municipalities served by utilities with greater investment needs, lower efficiency, and poorer service quality are more likely to privatize. Using a dataset covering 5397 municipalities from 2012 to 2023, we apply discrete-time duration analysis to account for time-varying factors. We find little evidence supporting our hypotheses. Instead, utility-level financial indicators emerge as the most relevant, suggesting privatization is more likely when its financial standing is strong. Our findings also confirm the importance of municipal-level factors. Using Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework, we argue that privatization in Brazil is more likely when there is a convergence of political, technical, and financial conditions, alongside private sector interest.
{"title":"Privatization pathways in Brazilian water utilities: The role of financial standing","authors":"Carlos Motta Nunes , Rui Cunha Marques","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102052","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102052","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since the 2020 reform of Brazil’s water supply and sanitation (WSS) sector, private provision of these services has expanded sharply. Major cities such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are now served by private operators, primarily following the privatization of their state-owned companies, either by share sale or through concession contracts. Brazil is thus one of the most prominent markets for private WSS provision in the world. The objective of this study is to investigate the main factors associated with WSS privatization in Brazil, focusing on utility-level variables. While previous research has emphasized municipal-level factors such as fiscal health, economic efficiency, and party ideology, utility-level effects remain understudied. Drawing from the literature on privatization motivations, we hypothesize that municipalities served by utilities with greater investment needs, lower efficiency, and poorer service quality are more likely to privatize. Using a dataset covering 5397 municipalities from 2012 to 2023, we apply discrete-time duration analysis to account for time-varying factors. We find little evidence supporting our hypotheses. Instead, utility-level financial indicators emerge as the most relevant, suggesting privatization is more likely when its financial standing is strong. Our findings also confirm the importance of municipal-level factors. Using Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework, we argue that privatization in Brazil is more likely when there is a convergence of political, technical, and financial conditions, alongside private sector interest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 102052"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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