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Dynamics of Friendliness of Communication Regimes of Neighboring Countries (Based on the Results of Annual Monitoring) 周边国家沟通机制友好性动态分析(基于年度监测结果)
Pub Date : 2023-03-17 DOI: 10.53658/rw2023-3-1(7)-24-39
V. Komleva
The article contains the results of monitoring the friendliness of communication regimes in the post-Soviet countries and an analysis of the friendliness rating of these countries for 2022. The author identifies a number of trends: the strengthening of the polarization of friendly and unfriendly communication regimes; strengthening state control over information content and communication channels; reducing the subjectivity of civil society institutions as actors of communication regimes; increased pressure on the Orthodox Church. Fluctuating type of communication regimes are revealed, in which, according to the author, one should expect changes in the conditions of communications with Russia. It spoken about critically significant factor in the successful promotion of Russia's interests – the development of special communication strategies for intercountry interactions. The author argues that the phenomenon of "post-Soviet" is alive and is used by different countries either to build up friendly communications or to increase hostility towards Russia.
这篇文章包含了对后苏联国家通信制度友好度的监测结果,以及对这些国家2022年友好度评级的分析。作者指出了一些趋势:友好和不友好的沟通机制两极分化的加强;加强国家对信息内容和传播渠道的控制;减少民间社会机构作为传播机制行动者的主体性;增加了对东正教的压力报告揭示了各种通信制度的波动类型,根据提交人的说法,人们应该预料到与俄罗斯的通信条件会发生变化。它谈到了成功促进俄罗斯利益的关键重要因素- -为国家间的互动制定特别的交流战略。作者认为,“后苏联”现象仍然存在,并被不同国家用来建立友好沟通或增加对俄罗斯的敌意。
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引用次数: 0
On the Issue of the Nature and Dynamics of the Development of Russian-Turkish Relations in the Post-Soviet Period 后苏联时期俄土关系发展的性质与动力问题
Pub Date : 2023-03-17 DOI: 10.53658/rw2023-3-1(7)-40-53
G. M. Arshakyan, A. V. Safaryan
The article examines the development of Russian-Turkish relations over the past 30 years, the main aspects of geopolitical relations and, in particular, the conflicts in the South Caucasus and adjacent regions. The authors believe that the key ones are the two Karabakh wars, the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict and the fve-day Georgian-South Ossetian war, as well as the Ukrainian crisis, the Libyan and Syrian conflicts, in which Moscow and Ankara have different interests. The new confguration of forces in the South Caucasus will largely depend on the outcome of the resolution of these conflicts. The authors identify the main patterns in the development of bilateral Russian-Turkish relations, which are characterized by a combination of confrontation, competition and cooperation. The article was based on the results of a scientifc discussion held at the National Communications Development Research Institution (NIIRC), Moscow, Russia in 2022.
本文考察了过去30年来俄土关系的发展,地缘政治关系的主要方面,特别是南高加索和邻近地区的冲突。作者认为,关键是两次卡拉巴赫战争,格鲁吉亚-阿布哈兹冲突和为期五天的格鲁吉亚-南奥塞梯战争,以及乌克兰危机,利比亚和叙利亚冲突,莫斯科和安卡拉在这些冲突中存在不同的利益。南高加索地区新的部队结构将在很大程度上取决于这些冲突的解决结果。作者认为俄土双边关系发展的主要模式是对抗、竞争与合作相结合。这篇文章是根据2022年在俄罗斯莫斯科国家通信发展研究所(NIIRC)举行的科学讨论的结果写成的。
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引用次数: 0
Central Asia – Russia: Opportunities and Limitations in Building a Joint Future (Foresight Analysis) 中亚-俄罗斯:构建共同未来的机遇与局限(前瞻分析)
Pub Date : 2023-03-17 DOI: 10.53658/rw2023-3-1(7)-66-77
T. Marmontova, A. Tazhibaev, I. M. Shamsieva, L. S. Makhmutkhojaeva, S. Kozhirova
Central Asia now plays an important geopolitical role in the balance of power in Eurasia. Russia's role in the region is evolving, but it remains one of the leading ones. The pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine have shifted the situation out of homeostasis. So it is now important to address the issue of security, support for small and mediumsized businesses, and the preservation and development of cultural and humanitarian links. Based on the Foresight procedure this article draws conclusions about the way forward for multilateral relations in the “Central Asia-Russia” format on the basis of the outcome documents announced by the Heads of the Central Asian States and the Russian Federation after their meeting. Using the rapid Foresight tools (anticipation, design, programming and projection), conclusions are drawn about the important position of the Russian Federation as a regional actor in the external policies of the Central Asian States. Its current position is strong, but not uncontroversial. The thesis of the interpenetration of the Russian and Central Asian economies has also been elaborated, since the backbone of low-diversifcation economies are energy and energy-transit. At the same time, one cannot ignore the powerful resource of soft power. The vast area of frontier communicativeness formed by the Kazakhstan-Russian border is a unique resource that can be exploited in the future. The article was based on the results of a scientifc discussion held at the National Communications Development Research Institution (NIIRC), Moscow, Russia in 2022.
中亚在欧亚力量平衡中发挥着重要的地缘政治作用。俄罗斯在该地区的角色正在演变,但它仍然是主要角色之一。这一大流行病和乌克兰的冲突使局势失去了平衡。因此,现在重要的是解决安全问题,支持中小企业,以及维护和发展文化和人道主义联系。本文以前瞻程序为基础,根据中亚国家元首和俄罗斯联邦元首会晤后宣布的成果文件,对“中亚-俄罗斯”多边关系的未来发展方向作出结论。利用快速预见工具(预测、设计、规划和预测),得出结论,说明俄罗斯联邦作为中亚国家对外政策的区域行动者所处的重要地位。它目前的地位很稳固,但并非没有争议。还阐述了俄罗斯和中亚经济相互渗透的论点,因为低多样化经济的支柱是能源和能源过境。与此同时,人们也不能忽视软实力这一强大资源。哈萨克斯坦-俄罗斯边境形成的广阔的边境交通区域是未来可以开发的独特资源。这篇文章是根据2022年在俄罗斯莫斯科国家通信发展研究所(NIIRC)举行的科学讨论的结果写成的。
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引用次数: 0
Socio-Political Factors of Humanitarian Communication between Georgia and Russia 格鲁吉亚与俄罗斯人道主义交流的社会政治因素
Pub Date : 2023-03-17 DOI: 10.53658/rw2023-3-1(7)-54-65
A. А. Khidirbegishvili, A. Khotivrishvili, I. P. Goryunov
The article considers the factors shaping the specifcs of cooperation between Russia and Georgia in the humanitarian sphere. The authors state a decrease in the intensity of scientifc, educational, and cultural communication. The impossibility of a fnal civilizational break is noted due to the commonality of the historical past, religion and culture. The key problem identifed is the impossibility of building full-scale humanitarian cooperation due to the lack of diplomatic relations and the presence in Russia of a visa regime to Georgia. The pragmatic position of the Georgian ruling elite towards Russia, as well as the growth of the tourist flow of Russians to Georgia, are positive factors for the further development of cooperation in the humanitarian sphere. The authors conclude that in the absence of a political dialogue at the highest level, the impetus for the development of humanitarian cooperation can be given by organizations of the non-proft sector and diasporas of Georgians in Russia and Russians in Georgia. The article was based on the results of a scientifc discussion held at the National Communications Development Research Institution (NIIRC), Moscow, Russia in 2022.
本文探讨了影响俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚在人道主义领域合作具体情况的因素。作者指出,科学、教育和文化交流的强度有所下降。由于历史、宗教和文化的共同性,最后的文明断裂是不可能的。确定的关键问题是,由于缺乏外交关系和俄罗斯对格鲁吉亚实行签证制度,不可能建立全面的人道主义合作。格鲁吉亚统治精英对俄罗斯的务实立场,以及前往格鲁吉亚旅游的俄罗斯人的增长,是进一步发展人道主义领域合作的积极因素。作者的结论是,在最高一级缺乏政治对话的情况下,可以由非营利部门组织和在俄罗斯的格鲁吉亚侨民以及在格鲁吉亚的俄罗斯人来推动人道主义合作的发展。这篇文章是根据2022年在俄罗斯莫斯科国家通信发展研究所(NIIRC)举行的科学讨论的结果写成的。
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引用次数: 0
Conditions and Factors for the Development of Inter-country Communications between Azerbaijan and Russia 阿塞拜疆与俄罗斯国家间通信发展的条件与因素
Pub Date : 2023-03-17 DOI: 10.53658/rw2023-3-1(7)-78-91
R. Huseynov, A. Krylov, R. Mobili
In recent years, the priorities in relations between the countries of the postSoviet region have been changing rapidly. In this situation, it is very important to see the trends and mindsets of the societies of our countries, including those expressed in the media and social networks. In this context, relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, or more precisely between our societies, are in many ways friendly. In Azerbaijan society, the attitude towards the Russian language, culture and education is consistently good. There is a growing interest in education in Russian, which is signifcant against the backdrop of not only popularity, but also restrictions on Russian-language education in some countries in the post-Soviet space. However, the external factor in the South Caucasus has a great influence on the Azerbaijan political discourse and leads to the spread of phenomena that are contrary to Russian national interests and can be considered by Russia as threats. The study used materials from some media, the results of personal observations and conclusions from numerous public events.
近年来,后苏联地区各国之间关系的优先事项发生了迅速变化。在这种情况下,非常重要的是要看到我们各国社会的趋势和心态,包括在媒体和社交网络中表达的趋势和心态。在这种情况下,阿塞拜疆与俄罗斯之间,或者更确切地说,我们两国社会之间的关系在许多方面是友好的。在阿塞拜疆社会,对俄语、文化和教育的态度一直很好。人们对俄语教育的兴趣越来越大,这不仅是在俄语受欢迎的背景下,而且在后苏联时期一些国家对俄语教育的限制也很重要。然而,南高加索地区的外部因素对阿塞拜疆的政治言论产生了巨大影响,导致与俄罗斯国家利益相悖的现象蔓延,俄罗斯可以将其视为威胁。这项研究使用了一些媒体的材料、个人观察的结果和许多公共事件的结论。
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引用次数: 0
Topical Issues of Cross-Border Cooperation Research 跨境合作研究的热点问题
Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.53658/rw2022-2-4(6)-60-83
K. A. Abdrakhmanov, S. V. Doholyan, T. Marmontova, N. Mezhevich, V. Sapryka, I. P. Sitov, A. G. Stoppe, G. Khmeleva, M. M. Chernyshov
The National Research Institute for Development Communications (NICRUS) initiated an expert project «Models of cross-border cooperation: current theoretical and methodological approaches». Within the framework of it, leading scientists and experts on integration and regional development conducted an analysis of topical issues and approaches to the study of cross-border cooperation. The article presents the main theses of the project’s foresight session and an expert assessment of trends in cross-border cooperation in the context of the transformation of the world order.
国家发展传播研究所(NICRUS)发起了一个专家项目“跨境合作模式:当前的理论和方法方法”。在该框架内,一体化和区域发展领域的顶尖科学家和专家对热门问题和研究跨境合作的方法进行了分析。本文介绍了该项目的前瞻会议的主要论点,以及对世界秩序转型背景下跨境合作趋势的专家评估。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Policy and «Diplomacy of the World Power with Chinese Characteristics»: Based on the Report of the CPC Central Committee to the XX Congress 外交政策与“中国特色世界大国外交”——基于中共十九大报告
Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.53658/rw2022-2-4(6)-186-209
V. A. Letiaev, Yu Wang
The article analyzes the text of the report of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which Xi Jinping delivered at the XX Party Congress, in the context of the current state and prospects of the foreign policy strategy of the People’s Republic of China, as well as the challenges to the country’s foreign policy in recent years. Based on the results of the analysis of the report, changes in China’s strategic positions are discussed. It is concluded that the main strategy of the foreign policy of the People’s Republic of China as a whole will remain unchanged: the country in foreign affairs relies on the domestic political situation, the ideology of the Communist Party of China and the role of the national leader, openness, modernization of the system and the potential to ensure national security and social stability. The main challenge for the People’s Republic of China remains the Taiwan issue, which is supposed to be resolved peacefully in the “one countrytwo systems” format, but the use of force is not ruled out. Relations with the United States of America are defined as a restrained global confrontation without open counteraction. The Russian-Chinese strategic partnership is understood as the choice of the People’s Republic of China, which meets its national interests, which will contribute to the formation of a multipolar model of the modern world. The actualization of the country’s foreign policy strategy at the XX Congress of the CPC is shown in its dynamics and comparison with previous strategies.
根据报告的分析结果,讨论了中国战略地位的变化。结论是,中华人民共和国整体对外政策的主要战略将保持不变:对外依赖国内政治形势,中国共产党的意识形态和国家领导人的作用,开放,制度现代化和确保国家安全和社会稳定的潜力。中华人民共和国面临的主要挑战仍然是台湾问题,这个问题应该以“一国两制”的形式和平解决,但不排除使用武力。与美利坚合众国的关系被定义为没有公开对抗的克制的全球对抗。俄中战略伙伴关系被理解为中华人民共和国的选择,符合其国家利益,将有助于形成现代世界的多极模式。中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会对外政策战略的实施体现在其与以往战略的动态和比较上。
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引用次数: 0
The Evolution of the State as a Process of Increment and Loss of Territory in the Context of the Implementation of the People’s Right to Reunification 在人民统一权实施的背景下,国家作为一个增量和领土丧失过程的演变
Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.53658/rw2022-2-4(6)-160-185
M. M. Chernyshov
The article considers a particular case of the evolution of state formations in the process of the increment and loss of territories, caused by the implementation of the people’s right to reunification. It analyzes successful and unsuccessful attempts to implement the people’s right to reunification while the states are returning their historical territories and realizing the policy of irredentism. The author analyzes the historiography of the issue in Russia, Eurasia and Africa, examines various cases of accession of territories in the XVIIXXI centuries, including the reunification the Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions with Russia. The author substantiates the need to amend the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, providing for the right of Russia to return historical territories in the case of discrimination of the Russianspeaking population, manifestations of neo-Nazism and Russophobia.
本文考虑了在领土增加和丧失的过程中国家形成演变的一个特殊案例,这是由人民统一权的实施造成的。分析了在各国归还历史领土和实现统一主义政策的过程中,实施人民统一权的成功和不成功的尝试。作者分析了俄罗斯、欧亚大陆和非洲对这一问题的史学研究,考察了19世纪至11世纪领土加入的各种案例,包括克里米亚、塞瓦斯托波尔、顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克人民共和国、扎波罗热和赫尔松地区与俄罗斯的统一。发件人证实有必要修改俄罗斯联邦外交政策概念,规定俄罗斯有权在歧视俄语人口、新纳粹主义和恐俄症的情况下归还历史上的领土。
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引用次数: 0
Friendship of Peoples as a Historical Factor in the Development of Modern Interstate Relations Between Russia and Uzbekistan 民族友谊:俄乌现代国家关系发展的历史因素
Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.53658/rw2022-2-4(6)-138-157
N. N. Abduganiev
The article examines the historical ties between the peoples of Russia and Uzbekistan both in a bilateral and multilateral format within the CIS, their historical unity during the Great Patriotic War, in the post-war period and today. “Friendship of peoples” is considered as a socio-political value and economic foundation of international relations between Russia and Uzbekistan. The author shows that the historical potential of “friendship of peoples” as a post-Soviet phenomenon has not been sufficiently studied. In some countries, the elites are underutilizing the historical potential of “friendship of peoples” as a post-Soviet phenomenon. Understanding the significance of the “friendship of peoples” is a test of state maturity in the conditions of the modern multipolarity of the world.
本文考察了俄罗斯和乌兹别克斯坦两国人民在独联体内双边和多边形式下的历史联系,以及他们在卫国战争时期、战后时期和今天的历史团结。“人民友谊”被认为是俄罗斯和乌兹别克斯坦之间国际关系的社会政治价值和经济基础。作者认为,“人民友谊”作为一种后苏联现象的历史潜力尚未得到充分研究。在一些国家,精英们没有充分利用作为后苏联现象的“人民友谊”的历史潜力。理解“人民友谊”的意义,是对一个国家在现代世界多极化条件下是否成熟的考验。
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引用次数: 0
Communication Regime of the Republic of Moldova: Assessment of Manageability 摩尔多瓦共和国通讯制度:可管理性评估
Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.53658/rw2022-2-4(6)-86-109
I. Leger
The article presents the results of a study of the controllability of the communication regime of the Republic of Moldova, carried out on the basis of a special methodology for comparative studies of country communication regimes. The main components of the communication mode, indicators of controllability, the location of the decision-making center, the degree of conventionality are analyzed. The peculiarities of the normative regulation of the communication regime, the system of its actors, the centers of influence on the communication regime of Moldova are examined. The problems of the communication regime in the country are revealed: non-execution of laws regulating communications and information; the concentration of the media in the hands of a narrow circle of persons and political forces; politicization of information; preferential rebroadcasting of foreign media content; low level of media literacy of the population; weak influence of civil institutions on the legislative regulation of the communication regime. The idea is affirmed that the communication regime is conditional on the political regime and that the communication regime of Moldova depends on external actors.
本文介绍了一项关于摩尔多瓦共和国通讯制度可控性的研究的结果,这项研究是根据一种比较国家通讯制度的特殊方法进行的。分析了通信模式的主要组成部分、可控性指标、决策中心位置、通俗化程度。通讯制度的规范性规定的特点,其行为者的系统,对摩尔多瓦的通讯制度的影响中心进行了审查。揭示了该国通信制度的问题:管理通信和信息的法律未得到执行;媒体集中在一小群人和政治力量手中;信息政治化;优先重播外国媒体内容;人口媒介素养水平低;民间机构对传播制度立法规制的影响较弱。有人肯定,通讯制度以政治制度为条件,摩尔多瓦的通讯制度取决于外部行动者。
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引用次数: 0
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Russia & World: Sc. Dialogue
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