Environmental Impact Assessment Review最新文献_第7页

An impact assessment and decision support tool for geothermal projects in Aotearoa 奥特罗阿地热项目影响评估和决策支持工具

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108273

Nona Taute , Te Kipa Kēpa Brian Morgan , Jason Ingham , Rosalind Archer , Tumanako Fa'aui

In Aotearoa, geothermal resource management requires assessing sustainability trends across environmental, cultural, social, and economic dimensions, as mandated by legislation. While triple-bottom-line approaches are well-established for evaluating environmental, social, and economic impacts, cultural impacts are typically assessed separately. This report introduces a novel decision-support tool that integrates all four dimensions, offering a comprehensive quadruple-bottom-line impact assessment specifically for the geothermal industry. The tool adapts the Mauri Model Decision Making Framework, traditionally used for engineering projects, by identifying a transferable set of indicators tailored to geothermal developments in the Central North Island.

The tool was developed through a combination of mātauranga Māori and Western knowledge, employing diverse research methodologies. Cultural indicators and thresholds were informed by over 16 h of wānanga (collaborative workshops) with Māori participants and augmented by literature reviews, as detailed in Taute, Morgan (Taute et al., 2022; Taute et al., 2023). Environmental, social, and economic indicators were developed through participatory action research, including consultations with 14 industry professionals from organisations such as GNS Science, the New Zealand Geothermal Association, and major geothermal companies. Over 500 potential indicators were reviewed, with expert feedback refining the final indicator set and thresholds for industry alignment. The final set contained 112 indicators with thresholds. This tool ensures that cultural impacts are systematically evaluated together with conventional sustainability metrics, addressing a critical gap in geothermal impact assessments. It offers a robust framework for holistic decision-making in geothermal resource management.

在奥特罗阿，地热资源管理需要评估环境、文化、社会和经济各方面的可持续性趋势，这是法律规定的。虽然三重底线方法在评估环境、社会和经济影响方面已经建立，但文化影响通常是单独评估的。本报告介绍了一种新颖的决策支持工具，该工具集成了所有四个维度，为地热行业提供了全面的四底线影响评估。该工具采用了传统上用于工程项目的Mauri模型决策框架，确定了一套适合中北岛地热开发的可转移指标。该工具是通过结合mātauranga Māori和西方知识，采用多种研究方法开发的。文化指标和阈值是通过与Māori参与者进行超过16小时的wānanga（协作研讨会）了解的，并通过文献综述加以补充，详见Taute， Morgan （Taute et al., 2022; Taute et al., 2023）。环境、社会和经济指标是通过参与性行动研究制定的，包括与来自GNS科学、新西兰地热协会和主要地热公司等组织的14位行业专业人士进行磋商。对500多个潜在指标进行了审查，专家反馈完善了最终指标集和行业一致性的阈值。最后一套指标包含112个有阈值的指标。该工具确保了文化影响与传统的可持续性指标一起得到系统评估，解决了地热影响评估中的一个关键空白。它为地热资源管理的整体决策提供了一个强有力的框架。

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引用次数: 0

Comparative multi-algorithm AI framework for real-time carbon emission optimization in a medium-scale irrigation project in Thailand 泰国某中等规模灌溉项目实时碳排放优化的多算法AI框架比较

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108276

Chiratthawat Mueangphaen , Wuttipong Kusonkhum , Kittiwet Kuntiyawichai , Tanyada Pannachet , Ratamanee Nuntasarn , Maetee Boonpichetvong

This study develops and validates a real-time carbon monitoring framework that integrates automated meteorological data with operational construction logs to enhance environmental impact assessment (EIA) methodology for tropical infrastructure projects. Leveraging 2332 h of synchronized climate–operational data from a reinforced-concrete sluice gate project in Thailand, the framework addresses critical gaps in carbon governance for medium-scale irrigation construction, a sector underrepresented in current EIA literature yet vital to climate adaptation in emerging economies. Three machine learning models (artificial neural networks, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting) were used to capture complex emission patterns. Under the tested monsoon scenarios, all models achieved high predictive fidelity (R² = 0.997–0.998) with low normalized errors (mean absolute scaled error < 0.05). The framework demonstrated 5 %–30 % potential emission reduction across operational–climatic scenarios, confirming its robustness for tropical infrastructure management and showing robust cross-algorithm consensus. Feature importance analysis highlighted embodied carbon in concrete (59.7 %) and steel reinforcement (24.8 %) as the primary emission sources, while environmental conditions emerged as influential factors. Furthermore, lower embodied‑carbon levels were observed during operational periods under ambient temperatures below 28 °C. The framework facilitates climate-responsive construction planning via real-time emission forecasting, scenario testing, and adaptive resource optimization. A three-tier implementation strategy encompassing climate-adaptive material scheduling, climate-responsive planning, and scenario-based emission testing demonstrates 5 %–30 % reduction potential while accommodating the technological constraints of tropical developing economies. This approach advances EIA methodology from retrospective assessment toward predictive, climate-responsive decision support, offering a scalable framework for integrating real-time carbon management into digital EIA platforms and aiding national net-zero infrastructure goals.

本研究开发并验证了一个实时碳监测框架，该框架将自动气象数据与实际施工日志相结合，以增强热带基础设施项目的环境影响评估（EIA）方法。利用来自泰国一个钢筋混凝土闸门项目的2332小时同步气候运行数据，该框架解决了中等规模灌溉建设碳治理方面的关键空白，这一领域在当前的环境影响评估文献中代表性不足，但对新兴经济体的气候适应至关重要。使用三种机器学习模型（人工神经网络、随机森林和极端梯度增强）来捕获复杂的发射模式。在季风情景下，所有模型均具有较高的预测保真度（R2 = 0.997-0.998），归一化误差（平均绝对尺度误差<； 0.05）较小。该框架展示了在各种运行气候情景下减排5% - 30%的潜力，证实了其对热带基础设施管理的鲁棒性，并显示了强大的跨算法共识。特征重要性分析显示混凝土（59.7%）和钢筋（24.8%）是主要排放源，环境条件是影响因素。此外，在环境温度低于28°C的操作期间，观察到较低的隐含碳水平。该框架通过实时排放预测、情景测试和适应性资源优化，促进气候响应型建筑规划。包括气候适应性材料调度、气候响应性规划和基于场景的排放测试在内的三层实施战略表明，在适应热带发展中经济体的技术限制的同时，减排潜力可达5% - 30%。这种方法将环境影响评估方法从回顾性评估推进到预测性、气候响应性决策支持，提供了一个可扩展的框架，将实时碳管理整合到数字环境影响评估平台中，并帮助实现国家净零基础设施目标。

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引用次数: 0

Innovative safety framework and direct load–settlement method to optimize vertical subgrade modulus in sustainable mat foundations 创新安全框架和直接荷载沉降法优化可持续垫基垂直路基模量

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108191

Antonio J. Sánchez-Garrido , José F. Moreno-Serrano , Ignacio J. Navarro , Víctor Yepes

This work presents a rigorously formulated methodology for directly estimating the vertical subgrade modulus (Ks) in slab foundations, overcoming key deficiencies of conventional indirect and semi-direct approaches. The model integrates elastic half-space theory with multilayer settlement analysis and oedometer-based consolidation mechanics, explicitly incorporating depth of influence and load compensation effects—parameters typically excluded from standard practice. The proposed formulation yields a Ks value of 5.30 MN/m³, closely matching the harmonic mean of established upper (17.82 MN/m³) and lower (2.91 MN/m³) bounds, thereby producing a modulus consistent with elastic energy principles and mechanistically grounded, suitable for advanced soil–structure interaction modeling. A new, application-specific safety coefficient for Ks is introduced, offering a calibrated metric for reliability-based foundation design under spatially variable subsurface conditions. The study implements a life-cycle sustainability assessment across three reinforced concrete slab foundation alternatives, utilizing a hybrid neutrosophic analytic hierarchy process (NAHP-G) in conjunction with the ELECTRE IS multi-criteria decision method. This framework enables integrated evaluation across structural, environmental, and socio-economic dimensions. Results indicate a 2.5-fold enhancement in the social safety index and a 50 % relative improvement in sustainability performance compared with baseline methodologies. The outcomes delineate a unified analytical and decision-making framework for subgrade characterization and foundation optimization, advancing the state of practice in geotechnical design and sustainability integration.

这项工作提出了一种严格制定的方法，用于直接估计平板基础中的垂直路基模量（Ks），克服了传统间接和半直接方法的主要缺陷。该模型将弹性半空间理论与多层沉降分析和基于深度计的固结力学相结合，明确地纳入了影响深度和荷载补偿效应——这些参数通常不包括在标准实践中。该公式的Ks值为5.30 MN/m3，与建立的上限（17.82 MN/m3）和下限（2.91 MN/m3）的调和平均值非常接近，从而产生符合弹性能原理且力学接地的模量，适合高级土-结构相互作用建模。为Ks引入了一种新的、特定于应用的安全系数，为空间可变地下条件下基于可靠性的基础设计提供了校准指标。该研究利用混合中性层次分析法（NAHP-G）和ELECTRE IS多标准决策方法，对三种钢筋混凝土板基础方案进行了生命周期可持续性评估。该框架能够在结构、环境和社会经济方面进行综合评价。结果表明，与基线方法相比，社会安全指数提高了2.5倍，可持续性绩效相对提高了50%。研究结果为路基表征和基础优化提供了统一的分析和决策框架，推动了岩土工程设计和可持续性整合的实践状态。

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引用次数: 0

Environmental sustainability of green roofs in urban areas 城市绿化屋顶的环境可持续性

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108270

Débora Pons Fiorentin , Sandra Rafael , Paula Quinteiro

Developing urban areas without considering green spaces enhances cities' vulnerabilities to the effects of climate change. To deal with such challenges, the European Union has promoted integration between buildings and Nature-based Solutions (NBS). Green roofs are a type of NBS and have been identified as a key strategy to enhance urban resilience. Although green roofs are seen as an environmentally friendly strategy to address the environmental challenges faced in urban areas, there is still limited evidence regarding the green roofs' potential environmental impacts throughout their life cycle. This paper addresses this literature gap by comparing the environmental impacts of green roofs and conventional flat roofs, through the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology in a cradle-to-grave approach. Five scenarios were assessed based on the functional unit of 1 square meter of the roof with a 40-year lifespan: i) two extensive green roofs, ii) two intensive green roofs, and iii) one conventional flat roof. The results showed that the performance of extensive green roofs is better than that of intensive ones, mainly due to the type of vegetation that intensive green roofs hold, and consequently, mainly due to the higher material and watering requirements of intensive green roofs. When comparing the conventional flat roof with the green roof, the conventional flat roof performs better in all impact categories under study, mainly due to the additional technical layers required for green roof construction. In all scenarios, the materials stage is the hotspot for all impact categories, except for freshwater and marine eutrophication for the green roof scenarios, where the end-of-life stage is the hotspot. Sensitivity analyses results indicate that the environmental impacts are not sensitive to the content of organic matter in the substrate. However, the end-of-life of the substrate layer materials has a great impact on the outcomes for some impact categories. The findings of this study suggest that improving waste management strategy may enhance the environmental performance of green roofs compared to conventional flat roofs. Future research should explore the multifaceted potential benefits of green roofs, addressing their social, economic, and environmental aspects, considering optimizing buildings' thermal performance and strengthening urban resilience under specific climatic and economic realities.

不考虑绿色空间的城市地区发展会增加城市对气候变化影响的脆弱性。为了应对这些挑战，欧盟推动了建筑与基于自然的解决方案（NBS）之间的整合。绿色屋顶是NBS的一种，已被确定为增强城市韧性的关键战略。尽管绿色屋顶被视为解决城市地区面临的环境挑战的一种环保策略，但关于绿色屋顶在其整个生命周期中对环境的潜在影响的证据仍然有限。本文通过从摇篮到坟墓的生命周期评估（LCA）方法，通过比较绿色屋顶和传统平顶的环境影响，解决了这一文献空白。基于1平方米屋顶40年使用寿命的功能单位，评估了五种方案：i)两个广泛的绿色屋顶，ii)两个密集的绿色屋顶，iii)一个传统的平屋顶。结果表明，粗放型屋顶的绿化效果优于集约型屋顶，这主要是由于集约型屋顶所具有的植被类型，因此，主要是由于集约型屋顶对材料和浇水的要求更高。当比较传统平屋顶和绿色屋顶时，传统平屋顶在研究的所有影响类别中表现更好，主要是由于绿色屋顶施工所需的额外技术层。在所有情景中，材料阶段是所有影响类别的热点，但绿色屋顶情景的淡水和海洋富营养化是热点，在这些情景中，生命终止阶段是热点。敏感性分析结果表明，环境影响对基质有机质含量不敏感。然而，衬底层材料的寿命终止对某些影响类别的结果有很大影响。本研究的结果表明，与传统的平屋顶相比，改进废物管理策略可能会提高绿色屋顶的环境性能。未来的研究应探索绿色屋顶的多方面潜在效益，解决其社会、经济和环境方面的问题，考虑在特定的气候和经济现实下优化建筑物的热性能和加强城市弹性。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating land degradation states and trends to identify priority areas for ecological restoration in China's drylands 结合土地退化状况和趋势，确定中国旱地生态恢复优先区域

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108269

Yi Han , Wenwu Zhao , Paulo Pereira

Land degradation is a global ecological and environmental issue to which the drylands with vulnerable socio-ecological systems are particularly sensitive. Ecological restoration is regarded as a vital approach to halt, curb or reverse land degradation. However, the lack of accurate information on land degradation dynamics poses a significant barrier to developing effective restoration strategies. Here, we selected fourteen typical land degradation processes in China's drylands, employed a generalised additive model to identify degradation thresholds and classify degradation states, and analysed degradation trends using the Theil-Sen slope statistic and Mann-Kendall test. We then applied the convergence of evidence method to conduct a comprehensive, multidimensional assessment coupling degradation states and trends, ultimately identifying priority areas for ecological restoration. The results showed that aridification, loss of soil organic carbon, and soil alkalisation are the most widespread forms of land degradation facing China's drylands. 70.33 % of the area is affected by 1 to 7 types of land degradation (mildly degraded state), 25.63 % is affected by 8 to 14 types (severely degraded state), and 4.04 % shows no signs of degradation (non-degraded state). While land degradation across all three states generally exhibits a stable trend, mildly degraded areas showed signs of improvement, whereas severely degraded areas remain at risk of further degradation. Based on the states and trends of land degradation, China's drylands can be categorised into restoration-priority areas (6.79 %), conservation-priority areas (11.74 %), and management-priority areas (81.47 %), each with distinct focus and intervention needs. This study can help decision-makers understand the dynamics of land degradation and develop priority strategies for ecological restoration.

土地退化是一个全球性的生态环境问题，具有脆弱社会生态系统的旱地对其尤为敏感。生态恢复被认为是停止、抑制或逆转土地退化的重要途径。然而，缺乏关于土地退化动态的准确信息对制定有效的恢复战略构成了重大障碍。本文选取了中国旱地14个典型土地退化过程，采用广义加性模型识别退化阈值和退化状态，并利用Theil-Sen斜率统计量和Mann-Kendall检验分析退化趋势。应用证据收敛法对退化状态和趋势进行了综合、多维度评价，最终确定了生态恢复的优先区域。结果表明，干旱化、土壤有机碳流失和土壤碱化是中国旱地面临的最普遍的土地退化形式。70.33%的区域存在1 ~ 7种类型的土地退化（轻度退化），25.63%的区域存在8 ~ 14种类型的土地退化（严重退化），4.04%的区域没有退化迹象（非退化）。虽然这三个国家的土地退化总体上呈现稳定趋势，但轻度退化地区出现了改善迹象，而严重退化地区仍有进一步退化的风险。根据土地退化的现状和趋势，中国旱地可分为恢复优先区（6.79%）、保护优先区（11.74%）和管理优先区（81.47%），每个区域都有不同的重点和干预需求。该研究可以帮助决策者了解土地退化的动态，并制定生态恢复的优先策略。

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引用次数: 0

LightImpact: An open-source model for quantifying energy savings of lightweight vehicles in life cycle assessments LightImpact：一个在生命周期评估中量化轻型车辆节能的开源模型

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108272

Suzana Ostojic, Marzia Traverso

Decarbonizing transport is essential to achieving global carbon neutrality targets, yet the emission savings of lightweight vehicles remain systematically underestimated in environmental assessments. In life cycle assessment (LCA) practice, these savings are typically represented by quantifying energy reduction values (ERVs) - the fuel or electricity saved per 100 km and 100 kg of vehicle mass reduction. Existing ERV estimation methods, however, rely on outdated driving cycles, static work-to-consumption conversion factors, black-box simulations, or class-averaged regressions - restricting their accuracy, transparency, and relevance to modern internal combustion engine and electric vehicles. This study introduces LightImpact, the first open-source Python library to calculate ERVs via a physics-based calculation model aligned with the current regulatory driving cycle standard and designed to overcome the methodological constraints of previous approaches. The model simulates the mass-induced mechanical energy demand from standardized driving resistances and converts it into vehicle-specific energy consumption savings using a newly developed differential efficiency factor, calibrated with manufacturer-certified consumption data. Applied to an automotive lightweight composite component case study, LightImpact yields ERVs up to 18× higher than previous estimates, revealing that the benefits of lightweight design have been systematically undermined. When integrated into LCAs, these ERVs enable more accurate evaluation of automotive lightweight components across various powertrains, regions, and grid scenarios. By bridging methodological rigor, open accessibility, and regulatory alignment, LightImpact provides a scalable model for assessing lightweight vehicles as enablers of low-carbon mobility while supporting evidence-based design decisions.

交通运输脱碳对于实现全球碳中和目标至关重要，但在环境评估中，轻型车辆的减排仍然被系统性地低估。在生命周期评估（LCA）实践中，这些节省通常通过量化能源减量值（erv）来表示-每100公里节省的燃料或电力以及100公斤车辆质量减少。然而，现有的ERV估算方法依赖于过时的驾驶循环、静态功耗转换因子、黑盒模拟或类别平均回归，限制了它们的准确性、透明度以及与现代内燃机和电动汽车的相关性。本研究介绍了LightImpact，这是第一个通过基于物理的计算模型计算erv的开源Python库，该模型与当前的监管驾驶循环标准相一致，旨在克服以前方法的方法限制。该模型模拟标准化驾驶阻力产生的质量引起的机械能需求，并使用新开发的差分效率因子将其转换为车辆特定的能耗节约，并使用制造商认证的能耗数据进行校准。应用于汽车轻量化复合材料部件的案例研究，LightImpact产生的erv比之前的估计高出18倍，这表明轻量化设计的好处已经被系统地破坏了。当集成到lca中时，这些erv可以更准确地评估各种动力系统、区域和电网场景中的汽车轻量化组件。通过将方法的严密性、开放的可及性和监管一致性结合起来，LightImpact提供了一个可扩展的模型，用于评估轻量化车辆作为低碳交通的推动者，同时支持基于证据的设计决策。

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引用次数: 0

Ecological effect of China's 30-year National Garden City policy: Synergistic acceleration of urban greening, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity 中国30年国家园林城市政策的生态效应：城市绿化、固碳和生物多样性的协同加速

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108267

Longqin Li , Wenbin Xu , Haorui Wu , Yisu Zhang , Xi Chen , Longjin Dai , Xin Wang , Weiqing Meng , Hongyuan Li

Urban policies primarily aim to enhance human well-being and also yield synergistic ecosystem benefits. Over the past three decades, the Chinese government has introduced a series of incentive policies to promote urban greening. Among the most influential policies was the National Garden City (NGC) policy, launched in 1992. However, a systematic understanding of how the NGC policy drives urban green space expansion and provides additional benefits to urban green infrastructure remains limited. This study analyzed the impact of the NGC policy on urban green infrastructure in China. The results indicated that the implementation of the NGC policy led to an approximate cumulative increase of 12,645.26 km² in urban green space area and 34,662.92 Tg C sequestered through photosynthesis. Cities that implemented the NGC policy exhibited significantly higher overall species richness than non-implementing cities, with variation across taxonomic groups. Our findings suggest that policy-driven urban greening affects urban ecosystems through changes in green space, carbon dynamics, and biodiversity. Therefore, China's National Garden City policy makes a significant contribution to urban green infrastructure development.

城市政策的主要目标是提高人类福祉，并产生协同的生态系统效益。在过去的三十年里，中国政府推出了一系列激励政策来促进城市绿化。其中最具影响力的政策是1992年推出的国家花园城市政策。然而，对于NGC政策如何推动城市绿地扩张并为城市绿色基础设施提供额外效益的系统理解仍然有限。本研究分析了NGC政策对中国城市绿色基础设施的影响。结果表明：实施NGC政策后，城市绿地面积累计增加了12645.26 km2，光合作用封存了34662.92 Tg C；实施国家植被保护政策的城市总体物种丰富度显著高于未实施国家植被保护政策的城市，且不同分类类群间存在差异。研究结果表明，政策驱动的城市绿化通过绿地空间、碳动态和生物多样性的变化对城市生态系统产生影响。因此，中国的国家园林城市政策对城市绿色基础设施的发展做出了重大贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Over two-thirds of the historical carbon emissions embodied in legacy capital contribute to China's growing consumption-based emissions responsibility 超过三分之二的历史碳排放体现在传统资本中，这是中国日益增长的以消费为基础的排放责任

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108268

Dongxiao Xu , Yan Zhang , Quanliang Ye , Yuli Shan , Jiahan Li

Substantial carbon emissions from fixed capital over its lifespan exacerbate the climate crisis and deepen carbon inequities. The effective assessment, attribution and management of capital-related carbon are crucial for long-term climate mitigation and sustainable development. Here, by constructing a global environmentally extended multiregional input–output model with endogenous fixed capital, we allocate global carbon emissions from past capital production to current and future consumption throughout the lifespan of capital to reassess China's carbon emissions responsibility and carbon transfer. This reallocation leads to a 36–47 % reduction in China's production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions responsibility and a 19–31 % decrease in net carbon transfer between 2000 and 2015, as China's capital consumption represented less than one-third of its capital formation. However, the carbon emissions responsibility and carbon transfers of China's service sectors—particularly real estate—increase, making these sectors new mitigation hotspots. This is due mainly to the high consumption of domestically produced buildings and machinery and imported equipment from Germany, Japan, and the United States. A critical challenge is that approximately two-thirds of legacy capital will persist and delay the peak of China's production-based and consumption-based emissions responsibility, locking in elevated emission burdens for future generations, even as China strengthens its regulatory targets (e.g., raising its carbon intensity reduction target from 65 % to 75 %). The use of a global cooperation mechanism and intelligent management throughout capital's lifespan, particularly with the extension of capital's service duration, will become a powerful lever for building a low-carbon, fair, and sustainable present and future.

固定资本在其生命周期内的大量碳排放加剧了气候危机，并加深了碳不平等。与资本有关的碳的有效评估、归因和管理对于长期减缓气候变化和可持续发展至关重要。本文通过构建一个具有内生固定资本的全球环境扩展的多区域投入产出模型，将全球碳排放从过去的资本生产分配到当前和未来的资本消费，从而重新评估中国的碳排放责任和碳转移。由于中国的资本消费占其资本形成的比重不到三分之一，这种再分配导致2000年至2015年间，中国基于生产和消费的碳排放责任减少了36 - 47%，净碳转移减少了19 - 31%。然而，中国服务业（尤其是房地产业）的碳排放责任和碳转移正在增加，使这些行业成为新的减排热点。这主要是由于国内生产的建筑和机械以及从德国、日本和美国进口的设备的高消费。一个关键的挑战是，即使中国加强了监管目标（例如，将碳强度降低目标从65%提高到75%），大约三分之二的遗留资本仍将持续存在，并推迟中国以生产和消费为基础的排放责任达到峰值的时间，从而为子孙后代锁定更高的排放负担。利用全球合作机制和智慧管理贯穿资本的整个生命周期，特别是随着资本使用年限的延长，将成为建设低碳、公平、可持续的现在和未来的有力杠杆。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring global sustainable development pathways based on the spatial spillover effects of ecological wellbeing performance 基于生态健康绩效的空间溢出效应探索全球可持续发展路径

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108266

Jing Shi , Dawei Zhang , Hui Xu , Huai Deng , Jiayi He , Xinpu Wang , Yang Wu , Shulin Yan

The intensifying international trade has promoted overall global economic growth and technological diffusion. However, it has also led to spatial mismatches between resource supply and demand, as well as imbalances in the distribution of environmental governance responsibilities within certain areas. These challenges significantly hinder the coordinated advancement of sustainable development worldwide. Therefore, this study proposed an Efficiency Deconstruction-Dominant Identification-Synergistic Gain assessment framework from an Ecological Wellbeing Performance (EWP) perspective which aimed to reveal the structural contradictions and spatial correlation characteristics confronting global sustainable development within the context of international trade. The results indicate that, between 2000 and 2020, global resource-wellbeing (E_T) and resource-economy (E₁) transformation efficiencies continued to improve, yet economy-wellbeing conversion (E₂) slowed, declining by 16.9 %. International trade has amplified the positive spatial spillover of EWP particularly among neighboring countries and within specific international organizations and notably the most pronounced spillover occurred during the E₂ phase (with a spatial lag coefficient as high as 2.679). More developed countries served as central hubs driving transnational EWP spillovers and under their influence, edge countries' E_T transformation efficiency growth outpaced that of core nations by 1.26 times, demonstrating a pattern of peripheral dependency on core nations. Nevertheless, owing to structural development constraints, the E₁ efficiency of edge countries remains only 82 % of that of achieved by core countries. Furthermore, international trade has indirectly exacerbated environmental governance differences and inequities which to some extent imposed disproportionate environmental costs upon developing countries within economic globalization. These pose challenges to coordinated efforts for the achievement of global sustainable development. Consequently, this study offers a conceptual basis for addressing structural imbalances in global EWP and advancing adaptive, cooperative strategies for sustainable development.

国际贸易的加剧促进了全球经济的全面增长和技术的扩散。然而，这也导致了资源供需的空间不匹配，以及某些地区环境治理责任分配的不平衡。这些挑战严重阻碍了全球可持续发展的协调推进。为此，本研究提出了一个基于生态福利绩效（EWP）视角下的效率解构-优势识别-协同收益评估框架，旨在揭示国际贸易背景下全球可持续发展面临的结构性矛盾和空间相关性特征。结果表明，2000 - 2020年，全球资源-福祉（ET）和资源-经济（E1）转换效率持续提高，但经济-福祉转换（E2）放缓，下降了16.9%。国际贸易放大了EWP的正向空间溢出效应，特别是在邻国之间和特定国际组织内部，其中E2阶段的溢出效应最为明显（空间滞后系数高达2.679）。较发达国家是推动跨国EWP溢出的中心枢纽，在其影响下，边缘国家的ET转换效率增长是核心国家的1.26倍，呈现出外围依赖核心国家的格局。然而，由于结构性发展的制约，边缘国家的E1效率仍然只有核心国家的82%。此外，国际贸易间接加剧了环境治理的差异和不公平，在一定程度上使发展中国家在经济全球化中付出了不成比例的环境代价。这些对实现全球可持续发展的协调努力构成挑战。因此，本研究为解决全球EWP的结构性失衡和推进可持续发展的适应性合作战略提供了概念基础。

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引用次数: 0

Heterogeneous climate impacts on spring phenology of China's wetlands 异质气候对中国湿地春季物候的影响

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108264

Kaidong Feng , Dehua Mao , Xiaofeng Xu , Haiguang Pu , Ming Wang , Duanrui Wang , Zihan Xing , Xiapeng Jiang , Ying Qin , Hengxing Xiang , Zongming Wang , Tim Van de Voorde

A comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of spring phenology (SOS) in China's wetlands and its climate-driven mechanisms remains unclear. Based on MOD13Q1 NDVI, ERA5-Land, and China_Wetlands datasets, this scientific question was systematically explored using linear regression, partial correlation, and Synergistic-Unique-Redundant Decomposition (SURD) methods. Results showed the multi-year average SOS of China's wetlands occurred on 144.2 ± 16.7 days and advanced by 4.4 ± 6.5 days per decade, with substantial variation across radiation-climate zones and wetland types. Notably, inland swamps within the high radiation with the temperate continental climate zone (HC_IS) exhibited a negative advancement rate of −0.5 ± 7.2 days per decade. SURD analysis provided a new perspective on the climatic response mechanisms of SOS, revealing the important, often-overlooked role of preseason accumulated radiation (Rad). Rad demonstrated a unique causality contribution on SOS changes, particularly in HC_IS, which showed a multi-preseason average increase in information (ΔI) of 0.16. Distinct mechanisms by which Rad affected the preseason accumulated precipitation were identified across radiation-climate zones, especially the unique causality in inland marshes within the extremely high radiation with the plateau mountain climate zone and HC_IS (ΔIs of 0.51 and 0.41). This study offers recommendations to mitigate potential ecological risks, supporting the conservation and sustainable management of China's wetlands.

中国湿地春季物候的时空异质性及其气候驱动机制尚不清楚。基于MOD13Q1 NDVI、ERA5-Land和China_Wetlands数据集，采用线性回归、偏相关和协同-唯一-冗余分解（SURD）方法对这一科学问题进行了系统探讨。结果表明：中国湿地多年平均SOS发生时间为144.2±16.7 d，每10 a提前4.4±6.5 d，辐射气候带和湿地类型间存在较大差异；高辐射温带大陆性气候带（HC_IS）的内陆沼泽表现出- 0.5±7.2 d / a的负推进率。SURD分析为SOS的气候响应机制提供了新的视角，揭示了季前累积辐射（Rad）的重要作用。Rad对SOS变化有独特的因果关系贡献，特别是在HC_IS中，它显示了多个季前赛的平均信息增加（ΔI） 0.16。在不同的辐射气候带中，Rad对季前累积降水的影响机制各不相同，特别是在极高辐射范围内的内陆沼泽与高原山地气候带和HC_IS之间存在独特的因果关系（ΔIs分别为0.51和0.41）。本研究为减轻潜在的生态风险提供了建议，为中国湿地的保护和可持续管理提供了支持。

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引用次数: 0