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Will the Federal Budget for 2021–2023 Fiscal Years be Able to Ensure the Achievement of Strategic Goal and to Assure the Economic Security of the Russian Federation? 2021-2023财政年度的联邦预算是否能够确保战略目标的实现和俄罗斯联邦的经济安全?
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-29 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2021-1-115-131
I. Karaeva, A. Kolomiets, S. Kazantsev
The principles of drawing up the Federal Budget for 2021–2023, adopted in December 2020, are based on macroeconomic conditions. The probability to fulfill these conditions can’t be rated as high. In addition, these conditions ignore a number of significant threats to  the  economic  security  of  the  Russian  Federation  caused  by;  the  continuation  of  the COVID-pandemic  in  2021  and  the  increased  risk  of  similar  threats;  the  reduction  of the  trade  balance;  the  continuation  of  the  general  reduced  in  the  level  of  the  Russian population’s well-being, and by the lack of resources for investments. It is also impossible not to draw attention to the fact that within the framework of the budget concept, they set up a task to ensure the growth rate of the national economy at the level of a stagnant three  percent.  Moreover,  in  the  context  of  the  ongoing  development  of  the  pandemic, the President of the Russian Federation postpones until 2030 the achievement of many important goals that they forecast to achieve by 2024. Therefore, the trend of a long-term policy of sluggish, and in principle decaying, economic development with the minimization of inflationary processes at the level of four percent is forming. At the same time, budgeted principles generate not only the direction and dynamics of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, but the same pace and guidelines for the development of the subjects  of  the  Russian  Federation.  But!  Today,  new  trends  in  the  development  of  a rapidly transforming post-pandemic economy require the search for new internal drivers of development, including financial ones, require a transition to a model of breakthrough economic growth at both at the federal and regional levels. The country is entering an economy that has other priorities. So, we need other rules of fiscal policy.
2020年12月通过的2021-2023年联邦预算编制原则是基于宏观经济条件的。满足这些条件的可能性并不高。此外,这些条件忽略了对俄罗斯联邦经济安全造成的若干重大威胁;2019冠状病毒病大流行将在2021年继续存在,出现类似威胁的风险增加;贸易差额的减少;由于缺乏投资资源,俄罗斯人民的福利水平普遍下降。在预算概念的框架内,他们提出了将国民经济增长率维持在3%的停滞水平的任务,不能不引起人们的注意。此外,鉴于该流行病的持续发展,俄罗斯联邦总统将预计到2024年实现的许多重要目标推迟到2030年实现。因此,将通货膨胀过程最小化在4%水平的长期经济发展政策趋势正在形成。与此同时,预算原则不仅决定了俄罗斯联邦社会经济发展的方向和动力,而且也决定了俄罗斯联邦各主体发展的速度和准则。但是!今天,大流行后经济快速转型的发展新趋势要求寻找新的内部发展动力,包括金融动力,要求在联邦和区域两级向突破性经济增长模式过渡。这个国家正在进入一个有其他优先事项的经济体。因此,我们需要财政政策的其他规则。
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引用次数: 1
Urbooriented Development of the National Innovative System in the US Metro Areas 美国都市圈国家创新体系的城市导向发展
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-29 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2021-1-187-206
V. Minat
The socio-economic heterogeneity of spatial development is reflected in modern agglomeration processes, reflecting, first of all, the concentration and localization of innovative activity of elements of innovation systems of the national, regional and transregional levels associated with the reproduction process of the innovation economy. In the United States of America, a  country  that  occupies  a  leading  position,  both  in  terms  of  innovative  development  and the  process  of  urbanization,  there  is  undoubtedly  a  close  relationship  and  interaction  of innovatively active elements and economic agents with the structures that form the country’s metropolitan areas. Within the framework of this interaction, carried out under the influence of agglomeration effects in the space of post-industrial agglomerations of the United States, the urban-oriented development of the national innovation system is actively carried out, which  is  empirically  confirmed  in  the  framework  of  the  study.  The  revealed  correlation and indicative relationship between the noted phenomena made it possible to substantiate a number of specific features of the American metropolitan areas as geospatial conglomerates of innovative activity at the transregional level.
空间发展的社会经济异质性反映在现代集聚过程中,首先反映了与创新经济再生产过程相关的国家、区域和跨区域创新系统要素创新活动的集中和本土化。在美国这样一个在创新发展和城市化进程中处于领先地位的国家,创新活动要素和经济主体与构成该国都市圈的结构无疑有着密切的关系和相互作用。在这种相互作用的框架内,在美国后工业集聚空间的集聚效应影响下,积极开展国家创新体系的城市化发展,这在本研究的框架内得到了实证证实。上述现象之间所揭示的相关性和指示性关系使我们有可能证实美国大都市区作为跨区域创新活动的地理空间集落的一些具体特征。
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引用次数: 1
On the Threshold of a New Regionalization 论新区域化的门槛
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-29 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2021-1-165-186
M. V. Gligich-Zolotareva
American and European federalism served as a real model in the construction of the domestic state system for a long time. It is difficult to deny that these were indeed the best known examples  of  the  organization  of  the  administration  of  geographically  complex  states.  But the  coronavirus  pandemic  has  escalated  old  socio-political  and  economic  contradictions. The regionalization become one of the trends in the development of the state in the era of coronavirus. It means that role of regions and municipalities become disproportionately sharp. As a result decentralization and even separatism have grown. Similar problems can lead to the undermining not only of the economy, but also of territorial and even political integrity in most countries. The situation of tension between the center and the regions concerned not only sufficiently well-established Federal state such as the US, but the so-called “regional states” – Great Britain, Italy, Spain, and even interstate associations represented by the European  Union.  Obviously,  the  well-studied  models  of  federalism  of  Western  countries can no longer be a reference point for Russia and other countries. We need own models of state-territorial structure.
美欧联邦制长期以来是国内国家制度建设的典范。很难否认,这些确实是地理上复杂的国家管理组织的最著名的例子。但冠状病毒大流行加剧了旧的社会政治和经济矛盾。区域化成为冠状病毒时代国家发展的趋势之一。这意味着地区和市政当局的作用变得不成比例地尖锐。其结果是,权力下放甚至分裂主义有所增长。在大多数国家,类似的问题不仅会破坏经济,而且会破坏领土甚至政治完整。中心与地区之间的紧张局势所涉及的不仅是像美国这样足够成熟的联邦国家,而且还有所谓的“地区国家”——英国、意大利、西班牙,甚至以欧盟为代表的州际联盟。显然,西方国家精心研究的联邦制模式已经不能再作为俄罗斯和其他国家的参考点。我们需要自己的国家-领土结构模型。
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引用次数: 7
Using the Mechanisms of the Paris Climate Agreement for Conservation and Reforestation in the Russian Federation . 利用《巴黎气候协定》的机制促进俄罗斯联邦的保护和再造林。
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2020-4-141-156
A. Stetsenko, V. B. Uvarov
The problem of climate change is a global challenge of the XXI century for all mankind. However, despite the adoption of the Paris climate agreement, which is designed to synchronize the actions of various countries, individual countries or groups of countries are taking the path of obtaining unilateral preferences under the pretext of fulfilling the obligations stipulated in the agreement. The article analyzes the challenges and risks that Russia may face in the absence of its own greenhouse gas regulation systems against the background of the declared and implemented in a number of countries policy of achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions. Ways to fully utilize the potential absorption capacity of Russian forests and other ecosystems in relation to the goals of the Paris climate agreement are considered. We are talking about potential effects for the Russian economy in the form of domestic investment in forest projects to absorb CO2, while increasing the competitiveness of Russian export products in the context of the introduction of protectionist measures by individual countries under the pretext of fighting for “climate neutrality”.
气候变化问题是二十一世纪全人类面临的全球性挑战。然而,尽管通过了旨在协调各国行动的《巴黎气候协定》,但个别国家或国家集团却以履行协定规定的义务为借口,走上了获得单边优惠的道路。文章分析了在一些国家宣布并实施实现温室气体零排放政策的背景下,俄罗斯在缺乏自己的温室气体监管体系的情况下可能面临的挑战和风险。讨论了如何根据《巴黎气候协定》的目标充分利用俄罗斯森林和其他生态系统的潜在吸收能力。我们讨论的是在各国以争取“气候中和”为借口采取保护主义措施的背景下,对俄罗斯经济的潜在影响,即国内投资森林项目以吸收二氧化碳,同时提高俄罗斯出口产品的竞争力。
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引用次数: 0
Cultural Mandate of Local Governance: Running in Place 地方治理的文化使命:就地运行
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2020-4-90-106
V. Muzychuk
At present, local governments are unable to fulfil their cultural mandate either in terms of their functionality, or in the context of the required funding, or in terms of the scale and importance of tasks related to the development of culture. The article examines the problem of the ability of local governments to address the cultural agenda: the content of the network of municipal cultural institutions and ensuring the availability of cultural goods for the general population. The actions of the state over the past three decades testify to the implementation in Russia of managerial decisions that are extremely unfriendly to the cultural sphere. Firstly, we are talking about the reform of the budgetary sector, marked by the optimization, unification and commercialization of cultural institutions and a reduction in the number of employees. Secondly, within the framework of the reform of local government, all responsibility for the functioning of the so-called grassroots level of culture: public libraries, cultural and leisure institutions, local museums and art schools was transferred to the municipal level without bringing the required amount of public funding. The situation is aggravated by the accumulated socio-economic problems of municipalities, which reflected in the cultural sphere. A way out of the closed circle is seen in the revision and a clear definition of the area of responsibility of local government bodies in the field of culture and guaranteed public funding.
目前,地方政府在履行文化职责方面,无论是在职能上,还是在资金投入上,还是在文化发展任务的规模和重要性上,都存在一定的不足。本文考察了地方政府处理文化议程的能力问题:市政文化机构网络的内容和确保普通民众获得文化产品的能力。过去三十年来,国家的行动证明,在俄罗斯实施的管理决策对文化领域极为不友好。首先,我们谈论的是预算部门的改革,其标志是文化机构的优化、统一和商业化以及雇员人数的减少。第二,在地方政府改革的框架内,所有负责所谓的基层文化运作的责任:公共图书馆、文化和休闲机构、地方博物馆和艺术学校都被转移到市政一级,而没有带来所需的公共资金。各城市积累的社会经济问题反映在文化领域,使情况更加恶化。对地方政府在文化领域的责任范围进行修订和明确界定,并保证公共资金,是走出封闭圈子的一条出路。
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引用次数: 1
Some Areas of Development of Legislation on Local Self-Government in the Light of Amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation 从俄罗斯联邦宪法修正案看地方自治立法发展的一些领域
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2020-4-197-126
E. V. Kiskin
The introduction of large-scale amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation actualizes the discussion on the areas of development of Russian legislation on local selfgovernment. The article examines the social and legal nature of Russian local self-government, substantiates the conclusion about its duality (the level of public power and the institution of civil society), analyzes the place and role of local self-government in the unified system of public authority. The author comes to the conclusion that the goal of further improving the legislation on local self-government should be recognized as an increase in the efficiency of local self-government in two directions: in solving issues of local importance and performing other public functions (operational efficiency), as well as in meeting the request of citizens for direct participation in the management of common deeds (social efficiency). Based on this goal, possible scenarios for the development of legislation on local self-government are analyzed in two aspects: the territorial structure of local self-government and the competence of local self-government.
对俄罗斯联邦宪法进行大规模修订使关于俄罗斯地方自治立法发展领域的讨论成为现实。本文考察了俄罗斯地方自治的社会性质和法律性质,论证了地方自治的两重性(公权力水平和市民社会制度),分析了地方自治在统一的公权力体系中的地位和作用。笔者认为,进一步完善地方自治立法的目标应该是从两个方面提高地方自治的效率:一是解决地方重要问题和履行其他公共职能(运作效率),二是满足公民直接参与公共事务管理的要求(社会效率)。基于这一目标,本文从地方自治的地域结构和地方自治的权限两个方面分析了地方自治立法发展的可能情景。
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引用次数: 0
Structure of Technological Dynamics and Economic Growth of Russia 俄罗斯技术动力结构与经济增长
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2020-4-5-25
O. Sukharev
The slowdown in Russia’s economic growth to the “covid crisis”, as well as the possibility of restoring growth and forming a new model of it, are associated with the need to overcome structural constraints. Moreover, the plans for the recovery of the Russian economy note the need not only for a stimulating macroeconomic policy, but also for the implementation of structural changes through technological renewal. However, technological modernization is highly dependent on the existing mode of technological development – the current and future demand for new technologies. The implementation of the country’s technological development strategy requires an assessment of the existing technological structure with a measurement of its reaction to ongoing investments in support of obsolete and emergence of new technologies. Different sectors of the economy and its regions, having a different set of technologies and their structure, show a different level of manufacturability, which is understood as the ratio of the volume of innovative to non-innovative products. The sensitivity of this parameter to investments in new and outdated technologies is also different, which cannot be taken into account in the formation of investment and technological development policies for both individual regions and Russia as a whole. Using structural and regression analysis, this study provides a picture of the structure of the technological Russian economy. It is shown that technological modernization also involves the movement of resources in the sectoral and regional context in order to eliminate structural and technological imbalances in development. Investment policy should be reduced not only to increasing investments, but also to managing their structure in conjunction with replacing old technologies in order to level and improve the overall manufacturability. This will require solving the promising problem of increasing the sensitivity of manufacturability to investments in new technologies. In the long term, this approach will make it possible to single out the modes of regional technological development, not only ranking regions in terms of sensitivity to new and old technologies, but also developing a selective set of regional policy measures.Keywords: “covid crisis”, economic growth, industrialization, investments, structural changes, structural dynamics, technologies, technological effectiveness of the regional economy.
俄罗斯经济增长因“新冠肺炎危机”而放缓,以及恢复增长和形成新增长模式的可能性,都与克服结构性制约的必要性有关。此外,俄罗斯经济复苏计划指出,不仅需要刺激的宏观经济政策,而且还需要通过技术更新实施结构改革。然而,技术现代化高度依赖于现有的技术发展模式,即当前和未来对新技术的需求。执行该国的技术发展战略需要评估现有的技术结构,并衡量其对正在进行的支持过时技术和新技术的投资的反应。不同的经济部门和地区,拥有不同的技术和结构,表现出不同的可制造性水平,可制造性被理解为创新产品与非创新产品的数量之比。这一参数对新技术和过时技术投资的敏感性也不同,在为个别地区和整个俄罗斯制定投资和技术发展政策时不能考虑到这一点。利用结构分析和回归分析,本研究提供了俄罗斯技术型经济的结构图景。报告显示,技术现代化还涉及在部门和区域范围内调动资源,以消除发展中的结构和技术不平衡。投资政策不仅应减少到增加投资,而且还应减少到管理投资结构,同时更换旧技术,以平衡和提高整体的可制造性。这将需要解决一个有希望的问题,即提高可制造性对新技术投资的敏感性。从长远来看,这种方法将有可能挑选出区域技术发展模式,不仅根据对新旧技术的敏感性对区域进行排名,而且还可以制定一套选择性的区域政策措施。关键词:“新冠危机”,经济增长,工业化,投资,结构变化,结构动态,技术,区域经济技术有效性
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引用次数: 0
Economic Cooperation Between Russia and China in the Context of Modernization of their National Economies 国民经济现代化背景下的俄中经济合作
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2020-4-157-172
N. Stepanov, E. A. Sokolovskaya
The current model of state regulation in China has allowed it to take a special place in the modern process of reformatting the system of international economic relations. This model, based on a combination of strategic and indicative planning, market competition, and targeted lending to significant government projects, allowed us to ensure not only the growth of consumption, but also the development of investment platforms aimed at reducing risks, creating social entrepreneurship institutions, and so on. Strengthening economic cooperation between the PRC and the Russian Federation is an important factor in solving not only the internal problems of both countries, but also strengthening stability in the far Eastern region. The article analyzes the problems of Russian-Chinese cooperation related to the increase in financial flows between the two countries, mutual investment, the lack of existing bilateral effective and reliable settlement channels and payment systems, etc. In General, strengthening cooperation between Russia and China is an important component of the structural modernization of the domestic economy.
中国目前的国家调控模式使其在国际经济关系体系重构的现代进程中占据了特殊的地位。这种模式结合了战略规划和指示性规划、市场竞争和对重大政府项目的定向贷款,既保证了消费的增长,也保证了以降低风险、创建社会创业机构等为目标的投资平台的发展。加强中华人民共和国和俄罗斯联邦之间的经济合作,不仅是解决两国内部问题的重要因素,也是加强远东地区稳定的重要因素。文章分析了俄中合作中存在的问题,包括两国之间的资金流动增加、相互投资、缺乏现有的双边有效可靠的结算渠道和支付系统等。总的来说,加强俄中合作是国内经济结构性现代化的重要组成部分。
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引用次数: 0
Changes in the Regional Markets of Daily Demand Goods in the COVID-19 Pandemic 2019冠状病毒病大流行期间区域日用商品市场的变化
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2020-4-42-67
L. Oveshnikova, E. Sibirskaya, G. Slepneva
The negative changes in the socio-economic situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be overcome quickly. Shocks will manifest themselves over a long period of time, and all market participants will be tested. In this situation, it is especially important not only those decisions that are aimed at ensuring current socio-economic stability, but also going beyond the satisfaction of urgent needs, setting up in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation the implementation of a long-term policy of vigorous and sustainable economic recovery, taking into account new challenges. The current pandemic has already seriously affected the change in purchasing behavior in the regions of the Russian Federation, therefore the value of the promptness of analysis in modern conditions is especially important. This article provides a first snapshot of an assessment of the regional FMCG market amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The study assesses the factor relationships between the consumption of essential goods and the
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引用次数: 0
From Strategic Planning to Territorial Resilience 从战略规划到地域弹性
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2020-4-26-41
A. Odintsova
The adoption of the Strategy for the Spatial Development of the Russian Federation marked a new stage in the development of the practice of territorial strategizing. However, the lack of terminological clarity is one of the factors limiting the potential of this institution. Thus, the sustainability of socio-economic development, which is somehow present as the main goal in most territorial strategies, raises a number of questions. Taking into account the accumulated domestic and world experience, there are several interpretations of this concept: sustainability as stable rates of economic growth; sustainability as a concept developed at the UNO, requiring a balanced account of the environmental, social and economic components of social development; resistance to counteraction to various challenges and shocks. This article attempts to outline the main problems that arise due to the lack of clarity in the “dilution” of these concepts. In the world scientific literature and practice, the territorial potential for resilience to disasters has long been described by the concept of “resilience”, the content of which is considered in the paper.
《俄罗斯联邦空间发展战略》的通过标志着领土战略实践的发展进入了一个新阶段。然而,缺乏明确的术语是限制该机构潜力的因素之一。因此,社会经济发展的可持续性在某种程度上作为大多数领土战略的主要目标提出了一些问题。考虑到积累的国内和国际经验,对这一概念有几种解释:可持续性是指稳定的经济增长率;可持续性是联合国组织制定的一个概念,要求平衡考虑社会发展的环境、社会和经济组成部分;对各种挑战和冲击的抵抗。本文试图概述由于这些概念的“稀释”缺乏明确性而产生的主要问题。在世界科学文献和实践中,土地抗灾潜力一直用“resilience”这一概念来描述,本文对其内容进行了探讨。
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引用次数: 1
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