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Gas Crisis as a Precursor of European Recession 天然气危机是欧洲经济衰退的前兆
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-09 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2022-4-107-122
N. V. Bahtizina, P. M. Shpak, B. Khabriev
The reasons for the gas crisis in the European Union, which began in 2021, were the instability of renewable energy, the redirection of LNG to the premium Asian market, anti-Russian sanctions, and a decrease in gas imports from Russia. Despite the measures taken by the EU authorities (energy conservation, diversification of gas supplies and energy sources, financial support for the householders and businesses), the gas crisis will worsen in 2023. The gas crisis, superimposed on the mistakes of the monetary policy of the European authorities, accelerates inflation, intensifying structural imbalances in the EU economy and bringing recession closer. The symptoms of a recession can already be observed with the help of key indicators, which include indexes of industrial production and Manufacturing PMI, trade balance, inflation, unemployment rate, retail sales and GDP. The economic downturn in the European Union will negatively affect the dynamics of production in the largest trading partners (China, the US and the UK) and may trigger a recession in the global economy.
欧盟天然气危机始于2021年,其原因是可再生能源的不稳定、液化天然气转向优质的亚洲市场、反俄制裁以及从俄罗斯进口的天然气减少。尽管欧盟当局采取了措施(节约能源、天然气供应和能源多样化、对家庭和企业的财政支持),但天然气危机将在2023年恶化。天然气危机,再加上欧洲当局的货币政策失误,加速了通胀,加剧了欧盟经济的结构性失衡,使衰退离我们更近了一步。经济衰退的症状已经可以通过一些关键指标观察到,这些指标包括工业生产和制造业PMI指数、贸易平衡、通货膨胀、失业率、零售额和GDP。欧盟的经济衰退将对其最大的贸易伙伴(中国、美国和英国)的生产动态产生负面影响,并可能引发全球经济衰退。
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引用次数: 0
Development of Legislation in the Field of Intellectual Property in Modern Conditions 现代条件下知识产权领域立法的发展
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-09 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2022-4-168-186
M. V. Gligich-Zolotareva, D. Overchuk
Russia is a subject of international intellectual property rights protection. It is a territory of exclusive rights to the results of intellectual activity established by international treaties and federal laws are valid. However after beginning of a special military operation and sanctions pressure, the question about correction of the Russian system of intellectual property rights protection in relation to unfriendly countries has become more relevant. Сonsolidation of national security and increasing the country’s technological independence are not always compatible with the principles of protecting the rights of foreign copyright holders that remain in Russian legislation. The state protects domestic producers from foreign copyright holders, and legalizes parallel import. But these mechanisms do not work in full force due to the fact that Russian courts actually continue to protect the right of unfriendly countries to intellectual property in equal volume with Russian copyright holders. This article proposes to consider some measures to protect the rights and interests of the Russian Federation, its citizens and entrepreneurs, including the revision of Russia’s international obligations in the field of intellectual property and the formation of new law enforcement and judicial practice. Also the process of sovereignization of the Russian model of intellectual property rights protection we can see the development of modern technologies with affects of creating the results of intellectual activity and the methods of legal protection of its results. Thus, the achievement of the goals of state policy in the field of intellectual property is also possible by introducing new digital technologies into the state regulation of intellectual property at the federal and regional levels.
俄罗斯是国际知识产权保护的主体。这是国际条约和联邦法律所规定的对智力活动成果享有专有权的领土。然而,在特殊军事行动的开始和制裁压力之后,纠正俄罗斯与不友好国家的知识产权保护制度的问题变得更加重要。Сonsolidation国家安全和提高国家技术独立性并不总是与俄罗斯立法中保留的保护外国版权所有者权利的原则相一致。国家保护国内生产者免受外国版权所有者的侵害,并使平行进口合法化。但这些机制并没有充分发挥作用,因为俄罗斯法院实际上继续保护不友好国家与俄罗斯版权所有者同等数量的知识产权权利。本文建议考虑采取一些措施来保护俄罗斯联邦及其公民和企业家的权益,包括修改俄罗斯在知识产权领域的国际义务,形成新的执法和司法实践。在俄罗斯知识产权保护模式的主权化过程中,我们可以看到现代技术的发展对创造智力活动结果的影响以及对其结果的法律保护方法。因此,通过将新的数字技术引入联邦和地区一级的国家知识产权监管,也有可能实现知识产权领域的国家政策目标。
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引用次数: 0
The Importance of National Interests in the Transport Sphere for Russia's National Security 运输领域的国家利益对俄罗斯国家安全的重要性
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2022-3-125-138
Madina O. Turaeva, I. Gorokhova
The article attempts to analyze the legal provision of the state of national security in the sphere of transport in the Russian Federation from the point of view of covering national interests, challenges and threats. The authors show that the transport and logistics interests of the Russian Federation internationally have not always been reflected in full and in accordance with national interests in sectoral strategic planning documents. The importance of the new Maritime Doctrine adopted in July 2022, which sets priorities for the development of maritime activities over the next few years, including in the transport direction, is highlighted. Using statistical data on the state of Russia's transport sector, the authors examine what changes have taken place due to the COVID-19 restrictions and the latest geopolitical challenges. It is emphasized, that the implementation of the objectives of the Transport Strategy-2021 in the short term will proceed with negative dynamics.
本文试图从涵盖国家利益、挑战和威胁的角度分析俄罗斯联邦运输领域国家安全状况的法律规定。作者指出,在部门战略规划文件中,俄罗斯联邦在国际上的运输和物流利益并不总是按照国家利益充分反映出来。会议强调了2022年7月通过的新《海事原则》的重要性,该原则确定了未来几年海事活动发展的优先事项,包括运输方向。作者利用有关俄罗斯交通部门状况的统计数据,研究了由于COVID-19限制和最新的地缘政治挑战而发生的变化。需要强调的是,在短期内实施《2021年交通战略》的目标将以消极的动力进行。
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引用次数: 0
Methods of Sustainable Clustering of Russian Regions by Employment 俄罗斯地区就业可持续集聚的方法
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2022-3-160-177
I. Gavrilenko
The problem of the imbalance in the labor market of the Russian Federation cannot be solved without leveling the heterogeneity of its regions by socio-economic and demographic characteristics, since the labor market is a dynamic complex system that is influenced by a variety of factors, such as the economic, demographic situation, quality of education, interests of market participants, technological progress and digitalization, psychological aspects, etc. The article discusses the application of cluster and discriminant analysis methods on socio-economic data, highlights the regional features of the labor market in Russia. Cluster analysis was carried out using traditional hierarchical and iterative methods: the “Nearest Neighbor” method, the “Far Neighbor” method, the “Ward” method and the k-means method, as well as the fanny fuzzy clustering method. The results obtained by these five methods were evaluated for consistency. The conducted discriminant analysis allowed us to obtain a stable cluster structure in terms of the number of employed people by type of economic activity, dividing the regions of Russia into four main groups characterized by positive, average, neutral and negative behavior. Thanks to the construction of profiles of the obtained clusters, poorly informative types of economic activity were identified, employment in which has little effect on the division of regions into groups. The article evaluates the errors of cluster analysis methods for the final stable clustering. The regions with high and low levels of employment are analyzed, atypical subjects of the Russian Federation are identified and their industry specialization is considered. A comparative analysis of the formed groups and atypical regions was carried out, regions that can be conditionally assigned to any cluster were identified. The final typologization of the regions of Russia by the number of employed by type of economic activity has been developed taking into account territorial, social, sectoral and climatic features.
要解决俄罗斯联邦劳动力市场不平衡的问题,就必须根据社会经济和人口特征来平衡各地区的异质性,因为劳动力市场是一个动态的复杂系统,受各种因素的影响,如经济、人口状况、教育质量、市场参与者的利益、技术进步和数字化、心理因素等。本文探讨了聚类分析和判别分析方法在社会经济数据中的应用,突出了俄罗斯劳动力市场的区域特征。聚类分析采用传统的分层迭代方法:“最近邻法”、“远近邻法”、“Ward法”和k-means法,以及fanny模糊聚类法。对这五种方法得到的结果进行一致性评价。进行的判别分析使我们能够根据经济活动类型的就业人数获得稳定的集群结构,将俄罗斯地区划分为四个主要群体,其特征是积极,平均,中性和消极行为。由于建立了所获得的集群的概况,确定了缺乏信息的经济活动类型,其中就业对区域划分的影响很小。本文对最终稳定聚类的聚类分析方法的误差进行了评价。分析了就业水平高和低的地区,确定了俄罗斯联邦的非典型主题,并考虑了其行业专业化。对形成的群体和非典型区域进行了比较分析,确定了可以有条件地分配给任何集群的区域。在考虑到领土、社会、部门和气候特征的情况下,根据就业人数和经济活动类型对俄罗斯各地区进行了最后的类型学划分。
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引用次数: 1
Role of the CSTO in Promotion of Collective Security 集体安全条约组织在促进集体安全方面的作用
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2022-3-77-88
G. I. Chufrin
This article presented to the attention of readers is dedicated to the analysis of history, present condition and development prospects of inter-state relations on national and regional security between former Soviet republics, now new sovereign Eurasian states, as well as to the examination of organization forms of such relations. Having formulated basic principles of cooperation on these issues and underlying the need of collective and coordinated activities against threats to their security and stability in new geopolitical realities stipulated by the collapse of the USSR nine post-Soviet states concluded the Collective Security Treaty which came into force in 1994. Five years later, in April 1999, presidents of six these countries, namely Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, signed the protocol on prolongation of the Collective Security Treaty for the next five years while Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan refused to extend their membership in the Treaty and left it. It happened since due to a number of various domestic and external reasons the formation of national statehood of new sovereign states began to differ substantially from each other as to their strategic goals, aspirations and orientations which subsequently caused serious changes in their approaches to building relations with their foreign partners in bilateral and multilateral forms. In this connection in May 2002 those countries that retained their membership in the Collective Security Treaty decided to reorganize it into a new alliance with a higher degree of integration of its members in order to increase its role in promoting national and regional security – the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The present article examines basic events connected with the Collective Security Treaty Organization formation over the next 20 years, evolution of its goals and tasks, as well as requirements of making concrete directions of its activities more precise because of fundamental changes in the international environment. In the course of the undertaken analysis most important achievements of the Collective Security Treaty Organization during these years were singled out as well as concrete shortcomings in its activities were noted. Also, alternative variants of further development of this international security organization including those that may exceed the post-Soviet space were mentioned.
本文旨在分析前苏联加盟共和国和现在的欧亚新主权国家在国家和地区安全方面的国家间关系的历史、现状和发展前景,并对这种关系的组织形式进行考察。九个后苏联国家制订了关于这些问题的基本合作原则,并强调需要在苏联解体所造成的新的地缘政治现实中采取集体和协调的行动来对付对其安全与稳定的威胁,从而缔结了《集体安全条约》,该条约于1994年生效。五年后,即1999年4月,亚美尼亚、白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、俄罗斯和塔吉克斯坦这六个国家的总统签署了《关于在今后五年延长集体安全条约的议定书》,而阿塞拜疆、格鲁吉亚和乌兹别克斯坦拒绝延长其在该条约中的成员资格并退出了该条约。由于各种国内和外部原因,新主权国家的民族国家形成在战略目标、愿望和方向上开始存在很大差异,从而导致它们在双边和多边形式下与外国伙伴建立关系的方式发生了重大变化。在这方面,2002年5月,保留集体安全条约成员资格的国家决定将其改组为一个新的联盟,其成员的一体化程度更高,以加强其在促进国家和区域安全方面的作用- -集体安全条约组织。本文审查了今后20年来与集体安全条约组织的形成有关的基本事件,其目标和任务的演变,以及由于国际环境的根本变化而使其活动的具体方向更加精确的要求。在进行分析的过程中,指出了集体安全条约组织这些年来取得的最重要成就,并指出了其活动中的具体缺点。此外,还提到了这一国际安全组织进一步发展的其他形式,包括那些可能超出后苏联空间的形式。
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引用次数: 0
The Dynamics of Regional Economic Growth and the Priorities of US Regional Economic Policy 区域经济增长的动态与美国区域经济政策的重点
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2022-3-139-159
V. Minat
Stimulation of the pace and formation of the structure of regional economic growth is invariably one of the fundamental goals of the regional economic policy pursued by the subjects of the federal state. In the context of the cyclical development of regional economic systems and the beginning of the regionalization of the economy of the world leader – the United States of America - the problem of spatial and temporal differentiation of the choice of priorities to stimulate regional economic growth is becoming more urgent. Using the methods of regression modeling and economic statistics, an analysis was made of the influence of the main instruments of regional economic policy on the dynamics of regional economic growth over a long period of time 1961–2020 and forecast up to 2030. The obtained results revealed spatial asymmetries in the combination of the use of fiscal instruments and structural investment measures to regulate economic growth, associated with the level of development of subregions and individual states of the country. The transfer of the investment burden to stimulate regional economic growth in times of crisis to the end consumer is noted. The article substantiates the increasing role of such an instrument of regional policy as the selective regulation of aggregate regional export in the long term, indicating the transition from globalization to regionalization of the development of the economic systems of the states and largest municipalities of the United States to maintain the pace of regional economic growth while changing its structure.
促进区域经济增长的速度和结构的形成始终是联邦国家主体所追求的区域经济政策的基本目标之一。在区域经济制度的周期性发展和世界领导人- -美利坚合众国- -经济开始区域化的背景下,为刺激区域经济增长而选择优先事项的时空差异问题正变得更加紧迫。运用回归模型和经济统计的方法,分析了区域经济政策的主要工具对区域经济增长动态的影响,并预测了1961-2020年至2030年的区域经济增长动态。所获得的结果表明,在结合使用财政工具和结构性投资措施来调节经济增长方面,与分区域和该国个别州的发展水平有关,存在空间不对称性。委员会注意到在危机时期刺激区域经济增长的投资负担转移给最终消费者。从长期来看,选择性调控区域出口总量这一区域政策工具的作用越来越大,这表明美国各州和最大的市的经济体系发展正在从全球化向区域化过渡,以保持区域经济增长的步伐,同时改变其结构。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Sanctions and Prospects for Bugetary and Tax Policy in Russia 制裁对俄罗斯预算和税收政策的影响和前景
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2022-3-109-124
I. S. Bukina
The implementation of the Russia fiscal policy in 2022 is taking place in the context of severe external sanctions, including the freezing of government foreign assets. As theoretical models say an increase in government spending stimulates output growth but household consumption reduces. At the same time, empirical studies of the impact of sanctions show that losses from the simultaneous application of financial sanctions, asset freezing and trade restrictions could amount to 4.0-5.0% of GDP. The state of the federal budget in the first half of 2022 remained stable due to the growth in oil prices. The growth of additional oil and gas revenues of the federal budget covered the increased non-oil and gas deficit. External sanctions and retaliatory measures from the monetary and financial authorities had a critical impact on the state of the domestic government debt market. The return to early 2022 levels came amid falling trading volumes, with no new government bond issues between late February and August 2022.
俄罗斯2022年财政政策的实施是在包括冻结政府海外资产在内的严厉外部制裁的背景下进行的。正如理论模型所说,政府支出的增加刺激了产出增长,但家庭消费却减少了。与此同时,对制裁影响的实证研究表明,同时实施金融制裁、资产冻结和贸易限制所造成的损失可能高达GDP的4.0-5.0%。由于油价上涨,2022年上半年的联邦预算状况保持稳定。联邦预算中额外的石油和天然气收入的增长弥补了非石油和天然气赤字的增加。货币和金融当局的外部制裁和报复措施对国内政府债券市场的状况产生了重大影响。回归2022年初水平之际,交易量不断下降,2022年2月底至8月期间没有新的政府债券发行。
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引用次数: 0
Regional Differentiation of Agriculture in Russia and Modern Agrarian Policy 俄罗斯农业区域分异与近代农业政策
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2022-3-89-108
A. Petrikov
Taking into account the regional peculiarities of agriculture is a key factor in its effectiveness. This is especially important in Russia, a country with a federal structure of the state, whose regions are distinguished by a wide variety of conditions for agricultural activity. The article discusses the main regional aspects of the modern agrarian economy of Russia: significant differentiation of the growth rates of the industry in 1990–2020; shifts in the territorial distribution of production of the main types of products; risks of formation of a single agro-food market. The influence of agrarian policy on these processes, and in particular, the policy of state support of agriculture, is shown; the main measures for its improvement are discussed (agricultural zoning of the country and the preparation of a scheme for the placement of productive forces of agriculture and processing industry, strengthening the role of the federal center in subsidizing agricultural producers, and more).
考虑到农业的区域特点是其有效性的关键因素。这在俄罗斯尤其重要,因为俄罗斯是一个联邦制国家,其地区以农业活动的各种条件而闻名。本文论述了俄罗斯现代农业经济的主要区域特征:1990-2020年农业增长率的显著差异;主要产品生产地域分布的变化;单一农产品市场形成的风险。显示了农业政策对这些过程的影响,特别是国家支持农业的政策;讨论了改善这一状况的主要措施(国家农业区划和制定农业和加工业生产力安置计划,加强联邦中心在补贴农业生产者方面的作用,等等)。
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引用次数: 0
Ecological Balance in the Process of Resource Development of the Arctic 北极资源开发过程中的生态平衡
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2022-3-58-76
N. Stepanov, E. A. Sokolovkaya
One of the priorities of Russia's regional policy is the further development and development of Arctic territories and water areas. Currently, economic reformatting has become extremely dynamic. That is why the solution of the problem of ecological balance in the process of resource development of the Arctic is particularly relevant. No one doubts that the development of the Arctic zone for the successful development of Arctic hydrocarbon reserves is associated with the solution of a number of serious tasks that ensure the protection of national interests, infrastructure development and solutions to environmental problems. The article deals with the problems of sustainable development of the region, the possibilities of institutional mechanisms of interaction between the countries of the Arctic Council, the environmental protection effect of environmental protection.
俄罗斯地区政策的重点之一是进一步开发和开发北极领土和水域。当前,经济结构调整的势头非常强劲。因此,解决北极资源开发过程中的生态平衡问题尤为重要。没有人怀疑,为了成功开发北极碳氢化合物储量而开发北极地区,与解决一系列确保保护国家利益、发展基础设施和解决环境问题的严肃任务有关。本文讨论了该地区的可持续发展问题,北极理事会成员国之间相互作用的体制机制的可能性,以及环境保护的环境保护效果。
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引用次数: 0
Tax Revenues of Regional Budgets Under Sanctions Pressure 制裁压力下的地方预算税收
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.21686/2073-1051-2022-3-43-57
L. Lykova
The first half of 2022 was marked by a radical change in the geopolitical situation and an increase in sanctions pressure on the domestic economy. The breakdown of the established model of economic relations, the rupture of economic chains had a pronounced effect on the dynamics of industrial production. At the same time, the tax revenues of the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation have increased significantly and have not yet responded to the reduction in industrial production. Of the regions with a significant share of tax revenues from industry in the structure of consolidated budget revenues, only six had a reduction in income tax receipts, and this took place both against the background of a reduction in industrial production indices and against the background of their growth. According to the results of the first half of the year, there is no connection between the dynamics of industrial production and the receipts of corporate income tax and personal income tax to the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation. In a number of regions, wholesale and retail trade plays a significant role in maintaining the receipts of these taxes to the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the pronounced lag in the growth of personal income tax receipts from the rate of inflation, which occurs with an increase in average accrued wages and a drop in real incomes of the population, may indicate the accumulation of hidden employment problems in a number of regions.
2022年上半年,地缘政治形势急剧变化,国内经济面临的制裁压力加大。既定的经济关系模式的崩溃,经济链的断裂对工业生产的动态产生了显著的影响。与此同时,俄罗斯联邦各主体综合预算的税收收入大幅增加,但尚未对工业生产的减少作出反应。在综合预算收入结构中工业税收占很大份额的区域中,只有6个区域的所得税收入减少,这是在工业生产指数下降和工业生产增长的背景下发生的。根据今年上半年的结果,工业生产的动态与俄罗斯联邦各主体综合预算的公司所得税和个人所得税的收入之间没有联系。在一些地区,批发和零售贸易在维持俄罗斯联邦各主体综合预算的这些税收收入方面发挥了重要作用。与此同时,个人所得税收入的增长明显滞后于通货膨胀率,这种情况是随着平均应计工资的增加和人口实际收入的下降而出现的,这可能表明一些地区隐性就业问题的积累。
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引用次数: 1
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