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Individual mobility and heat exposure: Distinguishing residence-based and mobility-based assessments 个人流动性和热暴露:区分基于居住和基于流动性的评估
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108292
Heng Wu, Yong Liu
Human mobility is essential for accurately estimating individual heat exposure, yet most assessments still rely on residence-based measures that neglect daily movements. How mobility patterns influence heat exposure across different urban contexts remains underexplored. This study used mobile phone signaling data to capture individual mobility and employed a numerical model to simulate mean radiant temperature. Residence-based exposure (RBE) and mobility-based exposure (MBE) to heat were estimated in Chongqing and Chengdu, and the differences between the two were examined. Interpretable machine learning was then applied to explore the nonlinear effects of mobility indicators on estimated differences (|MBE–RBE|). Estimated results show that RBE can both overestimate and underestimate heat exposure, leading to biases relative to MBE. These differences were larger in Chongqing, reflecting its more complex mobility patterns. In Chongqing, human flows were more dispersed toward scattered subcenters, increasing exposure, whereas in Chengdu, flows concentrated toward a few employment centers, reducing exposure. Machine learning analysis revealed that mobility indicators substantially influenced the estimated differences. Out-of-home duration had a positive effect once exceeding 6 h, stabilizing beyond 12 h. Travel frequency exerted a positive effect within an effective range from 2 to 4 trips, particularly in Chongqing. Radius of gyration showed a positive effect beyond 3 km, with diminishing marginal effects after 10 km, especially in Chengdu. These findings highlight the methodological importance of incorporating mobility into heat-related assessments and provide evidence for designing targeted planning and adaptation strategies to reduce urban heat risks.
人类活动对于准确估计个人热暴露至关重要,但大多数评估仍然依赖于基于住所的措施,忽视了日常活动。交通模式如何影响不同城市背景下的热暴露仍未得到充分研究。本研究利用手机信号数据捕捉个体移动,并采用数值模型模拟平均辐射温度。估算了重庆和成都的居住热暴露(RBE)和流动热暴露(MBE),并分析了两者之间的差异。然后应用可解释机器学习来探索流动性指标对估计差异(| MBE-RBE |)的非线性影响。估计结果表明,RBE可以高估或低估热暴露,导致相对于MBE的偏差。这些差异在重庆更大,反映了其更复杂的流动模式。在重庆,人口流动向分散的次中心分散,暴露程度增加;在成都,人口流动向少数就业中心集中,暴露程度降低。机器学习分析显示,流动性指标对估计的差异有很大影响。外出时长一旦超过6 h,就会产生积极影响,超过12 h后就会趋于稳定。出行频率在2 ~ 4次有效范围内产生积极影响,特别是在重庆。旋转半径在3 km以上表现为正效应,10 km以上边际效应逐渐减弱,成都地区尤甚。这些发现强调了将流动性纳入热相关评估的方法重要性,并为设计有针对性的规划和适应策略提供了证据,以减少城市热风险。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the assessors: A systematic review of neighbourhood sustainability assessment tool effectiveness 评估评估者:系统检讨社区可持续发展评估工具的成效
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108295
Tayyaba Riaz , Aysin Dedekorkut-Howes , Tony Matthews , Scott Baum
Neighbourhood Sustainability Assessment Tools (NSATs) have been essential instruments for evaluating and guiding sustainable urban development. Despite insights provided into various aspects of sustainability assessment in the literature, limited research focuses on how effectively NSATs measure sustainability or what should be benchmarked in their assessment criteria. This study addresses this gap by identifying key factors that contribute to NSAT effectiveness. A systematic literature review, guided by PRISMA protocols, analyses 70 peer-reviewed articles from Scopus and Web of Science. Thematic analysis identifies three core dimensions that influence NSAT effectiveness: performance, applicability, and operational efficiency. Effective NSATs incorporate comprehensive assessment frameworks, standardised metrics, balanced sustainability dimensions, clear prerequisites, and long-term performance tracking. Applicability improves through policy alignment, institutional integration, and stakeholder engagement. Operational efficiency results from technological integration, cost-effective processes, and data-driven decision-making. The study proposes benchmark criteria to guide the development and evaluation of NSATs and demonstrates how standardised indicators and GIS-enabled workflows support benchmark-based planning decisions. It emphasises the need for tools that remain consistent, adaptable, and capable of driving measurable progress toward sustainable urban outcomes.
社区可持续发展评估工具(NSATs)已成为评价和指导城市可持续发展的重要工具。尽管在文献中对可持续性评估的各个方面提供了见解,但有限的研究集中在nsat如何有效地测量可持续性或在其评估标准中应该以什么为基准。本研究通过确定影响NSAT有效性的关键因素来解决这一差距。在PRISMA协议的指导下,一项系统的文献综述分析了来自Scopus和Web of Science的70篇同行评议文章。专题分析确定了影响NSAT有效性的三个核心维度:性能、适用性和操作效率。有效的nsat包括全面的评估框架、标准化的指标、平衡的可持续性维度、明确的先决条件和长期的绩效跟踪。适用性通过政策一致性、制度整合和利益相关者参与来改善。运营效率源于技术集成、成本效益流程和数据驱动的决策。该研究提出了基准标准,以指导nsat的开发和评估,并演示了标准化指标和gis支持的工作流程如何支持基于基准的规划决策。它强调需要保持一致、适应性强、能够推动可持续城市成果取得可衡量进展的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Abandonment duration shapes reuse strategies and benefits of abandoned cropland in China 撂荒时间决定了中国撂荒土地的再利用策略和效益
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108281
Yixin Liao , Chenrui Luo , Xue Wang , Jialin Liu , Xiaoqi Huang , Xinliang Xu , Rui Qin , Yuanwei Qin , Luo Liu
The reuse potential of abandoned cropland is significantly affected by the duration of abandonment. Ignoring such variation may lead to inefficient resource allocation. However, a systematic understanding of how abandonment duration shapes reuse strategies and associated multi-objective benefits remains limited. To address this gap, we excluded ecological restoration areas and identified the spatial distribution of abandoned cropland of varying durations across China. We then applied an interpretable machine learning model to distinguish between recultivation and afforestation pathways and quantified their potential benefits in terms of food production and carbon storage. The results are as follows: (1) The total abandoned cropland area reached 126 thousand km2, mainly located in China's second topographic step. Both abandonment area and recultivation probability decreased with longer abandonment duration, with 52.2 thousand km2 abandoned for up to 10 years and 73.7 thousand km2 for 11 to 33 years. (2) Abandoned cropland can be reused through two pathways: 70.2 thousand km2 via recultivation and 34.5 thousand km2 via afforestation. (3) Reusing abandoned cropland could yield 26.3 million tons of food, enough to feed 66 million people, and sequester 570 million tons of carbon, equivalent to 16.6 % of China's annual emissions. Recultivation of short-term abandonment offers higher production gains, as the per-area yield potential declines with increasing abandonment duration. This study emphasizes that abandonment duration should be taken into account when formulating land use policies for abandoned cropland reuse. The findings provide valuable insights for enhancing food security and supporting carbon neutrality goals.
撂荒年限对撂荒耕地的再利用潜力有显著影响。忽略这种变化可能导致资源配置效率低下。然而,对废弃持续时间如何影响重用策略和相关的多目标效益的系统理解仍然有限。为了解决这一差距,我们排除了生态恢复区域,并确定了中国不同年限撂荒耕地的空间分布。然后,我们应用了一个可解释的机器学习模型来区分再植和造林途径,并量化了它们在粮食生产和碳储存方面的潜在效益。结果表明:①中国撂荒耕地面积达12.6万平方公里,主要分布在地形第二步;撂荒时间越长,撂荒面积和复垦概率越低,撂荒10年的撂荒面积为5.22万km2,撂荒11 ~ 33年的撂荒面积为7.37万km2。(2)退耕还林面积可达7.20万km2,退耕还林面积可达3.45万km2。(3)利用撂荒耕地可生产2630万吨粮食,足以养活6600万人,封存5.7亿吨碳,相当于中国年排放量的16.6%。由于单产潜力随着弃井时间的增加而下降,短期弃井的复垦可获得更高的产量收益。本研究强调在制定撂荒耕地再利用的土地利用政策时应考虑撂荒时间。这些发现为加强粮食安全和支持碳中和目标提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Existing gaps in understanding Sustainable Development Goals interactions: Insights from a systematic review 理解可持续发展目标相互作用的现有差距:来自系统审查的见解
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108274
Utkarsh Ashok Khot , Anne Warchold , Prajal Pradhan
Most countries remain off track to fulfil the 2030 Agenda's 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. One key challenge to achieving the 2030 Agenda lies in trade-offs arising from cherry-picking goals or targets at the expense of others. Overlooking these SDG interactions, i.e., synergies and trade-offs, risks creating conflicting policies that undermine the interconnected nature of sustainable development. Hence, there is a need to comprehensively understand how the interactions are being addressed in the growing body of literature. This study provides a systematic review of 272 articles selected from an initial search of 1818. The review reveals that interactions between targets within individual goals and occurring across different geographic boundaries are understudied. The fragmented representation of geographic scales in existing studies highlights another gap, emphasizing the need to understand local SDG interactions. Further, SDG interaction studies infrequently focus on low-income countries, revealing a geographic bias. Notably, an imbalance persists in SDG coverage, with SDGs requiring complex social, institutional, or political engagement (e.g., SDGs 5, 10, 16, and 17) remaining underrepresented in the literature. Most interaction studies focus on goal level rather than more granular target or indicator level analysis. By observing the trends and co-occurrence of methods used for interaction analysis, this study highlights the dominance of qualitative text-based and stakeholder-inclusive methods and a need to develop new approaches to analyze the interactions underlying causal mechanisms. By identifying key gaps and trends, this review can be leveraged to advance the research landscape, guiding the prioritization of SDGs.
大多数国家在实现《2030年议程》17个可持续发展目标和169个具体目标方面仍未步入正轨。实现《2030年议程》的一项关键挑战在于,在牺牲其他目标或具体目标的情况下,需要权衡取舍。忽视这些可持续发展目标之间的相互作用,即协同效应和权衡,可能会产生相互冲突的政策,从而破坏可持续发展的相互关联性质。因此,有必要全面了解在越来越多的文献中如何处理这种相互作用。本研究从1818年的初始检索中选择了272篇文章,对其进行了系统回顾。回顾表明,个体目标内目标之间的相互作用以及发生在不同地理边界上的相互作用尚未得到充分研究。现有研究中地理尺度的碎片化表现凸显了另一个差距,强调需要了解当地可持续发展目标的相互作用。此外,可持续发展目标相互作用研究很少关注低收入国家,显示出地域偏见。值得注意的是,可持续发展目标的覆盖范围仍然存在不平衡,可持续发展目标需要复杂的社会、机构或政治参与(例如,可持续发展目标5、10、16和17),在文献中仍未得到充分代表。大多数相互作用研究侧重于目标水平,而不是更细粒度的目标或指标水平分析。通过观察相互作用分析方法的趋势和共现性,本研究强调了基于文本的定性方法和利益相关者包容方法的主导地位,以及开发新方法来分析相互作用潜在因果机制的必要性。通过确定关键差距和趋势,可以利用该审查来推进研究格局,指导可持续发展目标的优先顺序。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing policies for health impact and cost reduction from PM2.5 formation 评估PM2.5形成对健康的影响和降低成本的政策
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108265
Maywalin Jumsai Na Ayudhya , Shabbir H. Gheewala , Vladimir Strezov , Jitti Mungkalasiri , Sirima Panyametheekul , Ekbordin Winijkul , Trakarn Prapaspongsa
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) poses significant health and economic burdens, particularly in developing regions, such as Southeast Asia. This study assesses the health impacts and economic costs of PM2.5 formation in Thailand and evaluates mitigation policies to reduce these effects by 2037. Analyses at the city to national level examine major emission sources, including road transport, industry, power generation, household activities, open burning of agricultural waste, livestock, fertilizer application, and forest fires. Without intervention, health impacts are projected to increase by 22 % from 2022 levels, reaching 403,373 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually and resulting in an economic burden of 301 billion Thai Baht (THB) per year. Scenario analysis identifies the best integrated mitigation strategy, which includes E-Buses, reducing energy consumption in industry and power generation, banning agricultural residue open burning, and decreasing forest fire hotspots. This strategy could reduce health impacts by up to 70 % and could yield an economic benefit of approximately 211 billion THB annually. A ban on agricultural burning is identified as one of the most effective interventions, potentially eliminating 38 % of the health burden in Thailand. Findings highlight the urgency of comprehensive, multi-sectoral policies to mitigate PM2.5 pollution, with emphasis on agricultural waste management and enhanced emission controls. These insights provide a framework for other Southeast Asian countries facing similar air pollution challenges.
细颗粒物(PM2.5)造成严重的健康和经济负担,特别是在东南亚等发展中地区。本研究评估了泰国PM2.5形成的健康影响和经济成本,并评估了到2037年减少这些影响的缓解政策。从城市到国家层面的分析检查了主要的排放源,包括道路运输、工业、发电、家庭活动、露天焚烧农业废弃物、牲畜、肥料施用和森林火灾。如果不进行干预,预计健康影响将比2022年的水平增加22%,达到每年403,373个残疾调整生命年,并导致每年3010亿泰铢的经济负担。情景分析确定了最佳综合缓解战略,其中包括电动客车、减少工业和发电能耗、禁止露天焚烧农业剩余物以及减少森林火灾热点。这一战略可将对健康的影响减少至多70%,每年可产生约2110亿泰铢的经济效益。禁止农业焚烧被确定为最有效的干预措施之一,有可能消除泰国38%的卫生负担。研究结果强调,迫切需要采取全面的多部门政策来减轻PM2.5污染,重点是农业废物管理和加强排放控制。这些见解为其他面临类似空气污染挑战的东南亚国家提供了一个框架。
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引用次数: 0
Decoding the evolution and mechanism of urban carbon emission efficiency: A perspective of urban scaling law 解读城市碳排放效率演化与机制:基于城市尺度规律的视角
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108279
Jinfang Pu , Yumeng Li , Dawei Cai , Songpei Zhang
Improving urban carbon emission efficiency (UCEE) is essential for achieving low-carbon city goals. However, traditional UCEE evaluation methods, relying on linear relationship assumptions, frequently fail to accurately capture the actual carbon emission performance of cities. To address this gap, this study proposes a novel UCEE evaluation framework based on the urban scaling law and investigates the transition pathways for improving UCEE using Generalized Structural Equation Modeling (GSEM). The results demonstrate that the UCEE evaluation framework based on urban scaling law can effectively assess UCEE by mitigating city size effects. This approach reveals the coexistence of “large and efficient” cities alongside “small and green” ones. Furthermore, spatiotemporal analysis of UCEE uncovers significant path dependence in its evolution. This study further identifies the transition mechanisms of UCEE based on the GSEM. The results indicate that economic development indirectly facilitates UCEE transition by positively moderating green innovation and environmental regulation intensity, while foreign direct investment exerts both positive and negative influences in this process. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis reveals that megacities possess scale advantages in promoting UCEE transition through green innovation and environmental regulations, whereas resource-based cities are trapped in a carbon lock-in effect. These findings underscore the critical role of UCEE evaluation framework based on urban scaling law in addressing inherent biases in conventional assessments and provide novel insights. Policymakers should effectively coordinate multiple drivers based on urban functional positioning to break the path dependency inertia of UCEE. This study offers valuable scientific insights for promoting sustainable urban development.
提高城市碳排放效率是实现低碳城市目标的关键。然而,传统的UCEE评价方法依赖于线性关系假设,往往不能准确捕捉城市的实际碳排放绩效。为了解决这一问题,本研究提出了一种基于城市尺度规律的UCEE评价框架,并利用广义结构方程模型(GSEM)探讨了UCEE改善的过渡途径。结果表明,基于城市尺度规律的UCEE评价框架能够有效地通过缓解城市规模效应来评价UCEE。这种方法揭示了“大而高效”的城市与“小而绿色”的城市共存。此外,对UCEE的时空分析揭示了其演化过程中显著的路径依赖性。本研究在GSEM的基础上进一步确定了UCEE的转变机制。研究结果表明,经济发展通过正向调节绿色创新和环境规制强度间接促进了UCEE转型,而外商直接投资在这一过程中既有正向影响,也有负向影响。此外,异质性分析表明特大城市在通过绿色创新和环境规制推动UCEE转型方面具有规模优势,而资源型城市则存在碳锁定效应。这些发现强调了基于城市尺度法的UCEE评估框架在解决传统评估中的固有偏差方面的关键作用,并提供了新的见解。政策制定者应根据城市功能定位,有效协调多个驱动因素,打破UCEE的路径依赖惯性。本研究为促进城市可持续发展提供了有价值的科学见解。
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引用次数: 0
Calculation of life cycle-based emission factors for administrative services: A replicable framework for climate action in the public sector 基于生命周期的行政服务排放因子计算:公共部门气候行动的可复制框架
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108294
Enrico Nocentini, Michela Marchi, Dario Caro, Fabiola Tropea, Nicoletta Patrizi, Federico Maria Pulselli
Municipal services are rarely evaluated systematically for their environmental impacts. This study introduces an innovative life-cycle-based methodology for calculating emission factors for 21 municipal services, thereby filling a critical gap in public-sector impact assessment.
Services are classified into administrative office services (e.g., identity card issuance, residence changes, marriage licenses) and macro-services (e.g., school canteen management, green maintenance, bulky waste collection). While administrative office services are often considered intangible and underestimated in environmental terms, both types require significant resources and generate measurable impacts.
The methodology quantifies Carbon Footprints (CFs) of municipal services, producing emission factors per functional unit. Unlike previous fragmented assessments focused on specific sectors or public activities, this study applies a unified, systems-based framework. The results are consolidated into a structured database made of standardized emission factors (EFs), which serve as proxies when site-specific data are unavailable and facilitate replication across different institutions and geographic contexts. Applied in the Municipality of Grosseto (Italy), results show that macro-services account for 78.55 % of total emissions (particularly from school canteens and green maintenance), while site inspections and document processing are the most impactful administrative functions.
The approach helps local authorities identify emission hotspots and align services with strategic planning tools such as Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plans (SECAPs).
By providing a flexible and transferable evaluation framework, this study advances environmental accounting practices in the public sector and supports evidence-based climate strategies with broader policy relevance.
很少系统地评价市政服务对环境的影响。本研究采用了一种创新的基于生命周期的方法来计算21项市政服务的排放系数,从而填补了公共部门影响评估方面的重大空白。服务分为行政办公服务(如签发身份证、户口变更、结婚证)和宏观服务(如学校食堂管理、绿化维护、大件垃圾收集)。虽然行政办公室服务往往被认为是无形的,在环境方面被低估了,但这两种服务都需要大量资源并产生可衡量的影响。该方法量化市政服务的碳足迹(CFs),产生每个功能单位的排放因子。与以往侧重于特定部门或公共活动的零散评估不同,本研究采用了统一的、基于系统的框架。结果被整合到一个由标准化排放因子(EFs)组成的结构化数据库中,当无法获得特定地点的数据时,这些因子可以作为代理,并促进跨不同机构和地理环境的复制。在意大利格罗塞托市的应用结果表明,宏观服务占总排放量的78.55%(特别是来自学校食堂和绿色维护),而现场检查和文件处理是最具影响力的行政职能。该方法有助于地方当局确定排放热点,并使服务与可持续能源和气候行动计划(SECAPs)等战略规划工具保持一致。通过提供灵活和可转移的评估框架,本研究促进了公共部门的环境会计实践,并支持具有更广泛政策相关性的循证气候战略。
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引用次数: 0
Revealing the nonlinear effects of traditional rural streetscape features on visual quality based on the XGBoost-SHAP model 基于XGBoost-SHAP模型揭示传统乡村街景特征对视觉质量的非线性影响
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108282
Lanhong Ren , Wei Xiong , Jie Li , Aihemaiti Namaiti , Jie Zhuang
In the context of a global trend emphasizing livable environments and cultural heritage preservation, the “internal–external imbalance” in the visual quality of traditional village streetscapes has become a bottleneck constraining the development of China's “Beautiful and Livable Countryside”. Current research on rural streetscape features fails to effectively integrate neurocognitive mechanisms with local cultural attributes. Furthermore, its reliance on linear models limits the capture of complex nonlinear relationships. This study takes She Village, a traditional village in the rapidly urbanizing Yangtze River Delta region of China, as a case study. We established an indicator system comprising 23 streetscape features by integrating neurocognitive mechanisms and local cultural attributes. This indicator system adheres to the principles of human visual processing, offering a theoretical foundation for streetscape feature selection. We compared an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear model with five machine learning models and selected XGBoost model. This study uncovered nonlinear mechanisms underlying the effect of streetscape features on visual quality in traditional rural contexts, which differ from predominantly urban-focused studies. We further constructed the “dual-hierarchy” theory of streetscape visual quality. The findings demonstrate: The dominant factors affecting rural streetscape visual quality are, in sequence, culture, building, coordination of style, green, road, fence, streetlight, and color diversity. This confirms the critical role of cultural attributes in rural visual quality. It reveals threshold effects and interaction effects that influence the visual quality of rural streetscapes, which differ from those in urban areas. The thresholds for diminishing marginal benefits of green and road elements are 0.1 and 0.05, respectively. Building view index has a critical threshold at 0.6; beyond this value, its effect on visual quality shifts from positive to negative. Cultural attributes (coordination of style and culture) interact with building, green, Std-depth, and sky. Based on k-means clustering, we formulated targeted, precise improvement strategies for traditional villages focusing on optimizing streetscape configuration, emphasizing cultural characteristics, and strengthening threshold control. This study provides a reference method for identifying and optimizing rural streetscape visual quality in other regions, promoting the sustainable development of rural human settlements.
在全球强调宜居环境和文化遗产保护的大趋势下,传统乡村街景视觉质量的“内外失衡”已成为制约中国“美丽宜居乡村”发展的瓶颈。目前对乡村街景特征的研究未能有效地将神经认知机制与乡土文化属性结合起来。此外,它对线性模型的依赖限制了对复杂非线性关系的捕捉。本研究以中国快速城市化的长三角地区的传统村落舍村为研究对象。结合神经认知机制和地域文化属性,构建了包含23个街景特征的指标体系。该指标体系遵循人类视觉处理原理,为街景特征选择提供理论依据。我们将普通最小二乘(OLS)线性模型与五种机器学习模型进行了比较,并选择了XGBoost模型。该研究揭示了传统农村背景下街道景观特征对视觉质量影响的非线性机制,这与主要以城市为中心的研究不同。我们进一步构建了街景视觉质量的“双重层次”理论。结果表明:影响乡村街景视觉质量的主导因素依次为:文化、建筑、风格协调、绿化、道路、栅栏、路灯、色彩多样性;这证实了文化属性在乡村视觉质量中的关键作用。揭示了影响农村街景视觉质量的阈值效应和交互效应不同于城市街景。绿色要素和道路要素边际效益递减的阈值分别为0.1和0.05。建筑视图指数的临界阈值为0.6;超过这个值,它对视觉质量的影响由正转负。文化属性(风格与文化的协调)与建筑、绿色、纵深、天空相互作用。基于k-means聚类,以优化街景配置、强调文化特色、强化门槛管控为重点,制定了有针对性、精准化的传统村落整治策略。本研究可为其他地区的乡村街景视觉质量识别与优化提供参考方法,促进乡村人居环境的可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating life cycle and techno-economic assessment for bio-based lactic acid production from industrial residues 工业废渣生物制乳酸的生命周期与技术经济综合评价
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108291
Jesús Ibáñez , David Blanco-Alcántara , Jose Manuel Perales-Fernández , María López-Abelairas , Daniel Silva , Tiago Ramos da Silva , Helena Monteiro , Agata Olszewska-Widdrat , Joachim Venus , Charilaos Xiros , Anders Wallenius , Sonia Martel-Martín , Rocío Barros
Evaluating the economic viability and environmental impact of emerging technologies is crucial for the transition to a bio-based economy. This study proposes a methodology to assess the environmental and economic performance of bio-based lactic acid (LA) production by scaling up from pilot to industrial levels using fiber sludge, a residue from the pulp and paper industry, as a feedstock. Process design, Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) were conducted at pilot scale to identify key environmental and economic hotspots. External costs were estimated following the environmental Life Cycle Costing (eLCC) approach using the Environmental Prices (EP) method. At the pilot scale, the LCA indicated a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 3.87 kg CO₂-eq, which aligns with the values reported in previous studies. Scaling up to different plant capacities revealed the potential economies of scale. At a production rate of 50 kt per year, the Minimum Selling Price (MSP) was estimated at 1.71€/kg, which is comparable to that of other bio-based LA production routes. Assuming proportional environmental impacts from pilot to industrial scale, external costs were integrated into the MSP, resulting in adjusted values of 2.04€/kg (lower value), 2.21€/kg (central value), and 2.46 €/kg (upper value). Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses using Monte Carlo simulations indicated an 87.5 % probability of achieving a positive Net Present Value (NPV). This study highlights the need for standardised methodologies to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of emerging bio-based technologies, particularly when accounting for external costs.
评估新兴技术的经济可行性和环境影响对于向生物经济过渡至关重要。本研究提出了一种方法,通过使用纤维污泥(纸浆和造纸工业的残留物)作为原料,从试验规模扩大到工业水平,来评估生物基乳酸(LA)生产的环境和经济性能。在中试规模下进行了工艺设计、技术经济分析(TEA)和生命周期评估(LCA),以确定关键的环境和经济热点。外部成本是根据使用环境价格(EP)方法的环境生命周期成本(eLCC)方法估算的。在试点规模上,LCA表明全球变暖潜能值(GWP)为3.87 kg CO₂-eq,这与先前研究报告的值一致。扩大到不同的工厂产能揭示了潜在的规模经济。以每年5万吨的生产速度,最低销售价格(MSP)估计为1.71欧元/公斤,与其他生物基LA生产路线相当。假设从试点到工业规模的环境影响是成比例的,外部成本被整合到MSP中,得到调整值为2.04欧元/公斤(低值)、2.21欧元/公斤(中央值)和2.46欧元/公斤(最高值)。使用蒙特卡罗模拟的敏感性和不确定性分析表明,实现正净现值(NPV)的概率为87.5%。这项研究强调需要标准化的方法来评估新兴生物基技术的环境和经济影响,特别是在考虑外部成本时。
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引用次数: 0
The future of global Ramsar wetlands under intensifying precipitation extremes: Arid regions as emerging hotspots 极端降水加剧下全球拉姆萨尔湿地的未来:干旱区成为新兴热点
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108275
Deepak Mishra, Nakka Naveen Kumar, Shekhar Singh, Manish Kumar Goyal
Wetlands are critical ecosystems sustaining ecological balance, climate regulation, water purification, and biodiversity, yet climate-induced precipitation extremes pose growing threats to their hydrological stability worldwide. This study investigates hydroclimatic regime shifts across 2490 Ramsar wetlands using a climate-informed framework integrating precipitation variability and extremes, assessed through a multi-model ensemble of 13 CMIP6 models for historical (1951–2024) and SSP585 future (2025–2100) periods. In arid regions, annual precipitation increased 9.3 % (337.3 to 368.7 mm) while Ramsar wetlands expanded 14.5 % (447 to 512 sites), reflecting spatial growth under evolving hydroclimatic regimes. Despite remaining driest, arid wetlands exhibit heightened hydrological stress with RR95 frequency rising 16.36 %, R95pTOT contributions increasing 7.74 % (11.21 % to 12.08 %), SDII rising 9.5 % (2.1 to 2.3 mm/day), and Rx1 climbing 11.9 % (12.6 to 14.1 mm), indicating greater event-scale intensity. Across all climate zones, wetland-year records exceeding extreme rainfall thresholds increased significantly, reaching 95 % for R95pTOT in temperate zones and over 80 % in arid regions, demonstrating a global shift toward clustered, intense precipitation events. The expansion of arid zone wetlands coupled with increasing extremes creates a paradoxical risk where short, intense water bursts undermine ecosystem resilience, intensify flash flooding, and disrupt fragile wetland hydrology. These findings underscore urgent needs for climate-resilient wetland management policies tailored to arid and vulnerable regions, with targeted adaptation strategies including early warning systems, sustainable land use, and nature-based solutions essential for preserving wetland integrity aligned with SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 14 (Life Below Water).
湿地是维持生态平衡、气候调节、水净化和生物多样性的重要生态系统,但气候引起的极端降水对湿地水文稳定性的威胁日益严重。本研究利用综合降水变率和极端事件的气候信息框架,通过13个CMIP6模式的历史(1951-2024)和SSP585模式的未来(2025-2100)多模式集合评估了2490个拉姆萨尔湿地的水文气候变化。干旱区年降水量增加9.3% (337.3 ~ 368.7 mm),拉姆萨尔湿地年降水量增加14.5%(447 ~ 512个站点),反映了水文气候变化下的空间增长。尽管干旱湿地仍然最为干燥,但其水文压力却有所增加,RR95频率增加16.36%,r95pto贡献增加7.74% (11.21% ~ 12.08%),SDII增加9.5% (2.1 ~ 2.3 mm/d), Rx1增加11.9% (12.6 ~ 14.1 mm),表明事件尺度强度增大。在所有气候带中,超过极端降水阈值的湿地年记录显著增加,温带地区的R95pTOT达到95%,干旱区超过80%,表明全球向聚集性强降水事件转变。干旱区湿地的扩张加上极端天气的增加,造成了一种矛盾的风险:短暂而强烈的洪水爆发破坏了生态系统的恢复能力,加剧了山洪暴发,破坏了脆弱的湿地水文。这些研究结果强调,迫切需要针对干旱和脆弱地区制定气候适应型湿地管理政策,并制定有针对性的适应战略,包括预警系统、可持续土地利用和基于自然的解决方案,这些对于保护湿地完整性至关重要,符合可持续发展目标13(气候行动)和可持续发展目标14(水下生命)。
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引用次数: 0
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Environmental Impact Assessment Review
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